Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

member_27987 · Post by **member_27987** » 14 May 2014 09:38

Jhujar wrote:Modi's first visit will be to Argentina ( halt in Germany or France or Via South Africa which should be avoided for Security reason) then to China on way to Japan SOKO,IMHO only.
Then Iran, Russia,
Indonesia ,Singapore, Vietnam
Europe

Japan would be my best bet and then the rest

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 14 May 2014 09:38

abhischekcc wrote:I am in MR, and I know what you are saying about the nightmare of managing an MR project on ground.

BTW, that 'CIA' project you were talking about - it was 'handled' by my agency. In fact, it was done by a girl in my own department.

I can tell you the real truth about it - it is too banal. But only offline. (There was no CIA, there was only the hyperactive imagination of armchair patriots).

I thought you and Ravi were both Finance types - remember you scaring me with Hedging and Leverage Gyaan so long ago in Delhi!

It's actually a downer that the CIA was not involved in that - made fun hot-air discussion at that time in my neck of the woods. Like that apocryphal story on how the "traitorous" State Fisheries Minister allowed the SDECE

to gompletely chart the Kochi seafloor when all it was a harmless plain vanilla IMO-something survey outside our zone. Mallus might remember that.... all those Keralashabdam and Desabhimani "exposes" a-la the racy ISRO spy case.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 14 May 2014 09:44

abhischekcc wrote:Why Argentina? Are we planning to take over Falklands in a joint operation?

More likely tell them to take over the "pink revolution" since we do not need it in India.

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 14 May 2014 09:47

Reworking all the numbers with two of the best statisticians; BJP getting clear majority if we refrain from over analyzing demographics

Over-analyze demographics?

Does he mean surfeit of data from certain demographics which is skewing up things? Or absence of data from critical demographics which harms credibility and so "lets normalize with what we have"?
I thought THE problem was always getting enough responses from across demographics and not to fall into sampling errors and compounding it by making (unavoidable) mistakes in extrapolation.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 14 May 2014 09:53

Anand K wrote:I thought you and Ravi were both Finance types - remember you scaring me with Hedging and Leverage Gyaan so long ago in Delhi!
It's actually a downer that the CIA was not involved in that - made fun hot-air discussion at that time in my neck of the woods. Like that apocryphal story on how the "traitorous" State Fisheries Minister allowed the SDECE to gompletely chart the Kochi seafloor when all it was a harmless plain vanilla IMO-something survey outside our zone. Mallus might remember that.... all those Keralashabdam and Desabhimani "exposes" a-la the racy ISRO spy case.

Ravi is in IT

I was surprized by how much gyaan he had on finance, but I think he must have received training on finance given that a lot of It-vity type do coding for finance companies.

I am Yum-Bee-Yay, mostly shuttling between roles and industries.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 14 May 2014 10:03

CNN IBN says that susuma will get defence and jaitley finance and vks as mos defence

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 14 May 2014 10:13

http://yahooindiaelections.tumblr.com/

NEW DELHI: The Bharatiya Janata Party doesn’t trust exit polls (well, who does?).

So they did their own – and the party has an outfit uniquely capable of carrying out exit polling on a large scale: The block-level RSS workers.

The consensus among the punditry has been that this time, the RSS organization has turned out for the sort of grass roots work it is capable of when fully motivated; they agree, too, that this could make a sizeable difference to the party’s prospects, particularly in the key northern states.

Drawing on the RSS workers, the BJP thus conducted its own internal exit poll, and has come to the following conclusions:

That it will make big gains in Uttar Pradesh, where it expects to win around 45 seats; in Bihar where it expects 18; Gujarat, where its expectation is 21 seats; Madhya Pradesh, where its internal prediction is 22 seats.
It also expects to make gains in Rajasthan (21 seats), Maharashtra (18 seats) and Karnataka (15 seats).

Powered largely by the surge in the north and west, the BJP expects to end up around the 226-seat mark, while the NDA ends up with 259 seats, give or take five.

Its confidence further boosted by the results of this polling, the BJP has already begun making plans for the takeover in New Delhi. Prime Minister-in-waiting Narendra Modi is packing his bags and doing the last minute photo-ops in Gandhinagar.

Sheela Bhatt of Rediff.com has the full results of the BJP’s internal polling, and a wealth of other interesting detail, in her latest installment of Sheela Says, a daily column that has emerged as a must-read during this election cycle.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 14 May 2014 10:24

KLP Dubey wrote:
abhischekcc wrote:Why Argentina? Are we planning to take over Falklands in a joint operation?
More likely tell them to take over the "pink revolution" since we do not need it in India.

BRICS meeting in July.
Plus i am taking 10 days vacation in Bueno Bueno BuenoAires.

sum · Post by **sum** » 14 May 2014 10:31

Lots of BRF wasis must be depressed by this news. As per BRFwasis, this was the guy who destroyed BJP in many states? :

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 26m

About one result from HP there is clear consensus, @shantakumarbjp is possibly winning by the biggest margin in the state.

Some more masala:

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 35m

Reports from Hamirpur in Himachal are not very positive, although our numbers showing edge to AT; localized anti-incumbency??
Expand

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 32m

In Mandi too reports suggesting a Congress win easily, but numbers projecting a close race; Himachal is tough state to decipher.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2014 10:32

NDTV supremo PRoy will likely come in person tonight prime time with his much awaited poll - bearing the stamp of the dynasty's approval.

on Fri also he will be online from 7AM all day anchoring their show. I am going to watch ndtv only from now on as they are the nearest to a "official channel" that will include all "adjustments" being done and signed off by 10JP. lets get closest to the horse's mouth rather than indulge in chanakya type dreams.

sum · Post by **sum** » 14 May 2014 10:33

^^ More from "Andhra octopus":

Bharath_B ‏@Bharath_B2 3m

Andhra Octopus Lagadapati Rajagopal says BJP will get 270-290 seats and NDA above 300. @Realist_Indian @ScorpiusMaximus @dhaval241086

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 14 May 2014 10:34

suryag wrote:CNN IBN says that susuma will get defence and jaitley finance and vks as mos defence

FFS, Sushma Swaraj as Def Min? That completely vacuous lady? I'd prefer Antony.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 14 May 2014 10:35

@ynakg Lok Sabha : BJP : 270-280, NDA 320-330 Cong : 60-70, UPA 70-80 #LagadapatiSurvey

@laxman219 Lagadapati #seemandhra Exit polls TDP 19 -22 MPs, YCP 3-6 MPs TDP 115- 125 MLAs, YCP 45 -55 MLAs

member_28533 · Post by **member_28533** » 14 May 2014 10:44

Karan M wrote:
suryag wrote:CNN IBN says that susuma will get defence and jaitley finance and vks as mos defence
FFS, Sushma Swaraj as Def Min? That completely vacuous lady? I'd prefer Antony.

Second that. Hope NaMo doesnt go overboard in placating all the sulking deadweight. If a ministry is what it takes, perhaps non-critical ministries could be assigned instead.

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 14 May 2014 10:50

sum wrote: Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 32m

In Mandi too reports suggesting a Congress win easily, but numbers projecting a close race; Himachal is tough state to decipher.

In Mandi, it is open secret that from BJP, the most winnable did not contest after he reached some understanding with Virbhadra Singh whose wife is the Congi candidate.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2014 10:54

trial balloons are being floated in media by everyone from SS to Gadkariji....

relax. I dont think Namo cares for any of this ... he will go per whatever plan he has in mind and persuade everyone into line with RSS support. I am sure Loh Purush is destined to be next President (if he is fit until then) and in meantime grand mentor and president of the NDA.

more important is until May16th evening, watch only NDTV.
post May16, watch the hindi channels like india tv and zee for cabinet formation clues.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 14 May 2014 10:58

The only question to be asked is: Will BJP get 272 on its own ?
Rest all is margin of victory.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 14 May 2014 11:08

Countdown to New Dawn of Bharatvarsha.

T-44hrs and counting to NaMo Narayan.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 14 May 2014 11:10

muraliravi wrote: BTW, on their website, they have a hindi newspaper clipping showing how they got 2004 right. The font is too small, were you able to decipher what is written there?

http://www.todayschanakya.com/election_ ... erage.html

2004 LS:

Navjyoti's pre-poll survey's are superhit
Raj Pre poll
BJP: 19-22

Raj post poll
BJP:21
Con:4

Detailed breakup for pre-poll seat predictions in Raj and Del on close to call seats which they got (diff to read details)

Delhi: Got pred for VK Malhortra, Kapil Sibal, Tytler, Sandeep Dixit, Krishna <cant read> right. Predicted 6 for con and got that right on dot.

Correct predictions in Harayana num seats pre: 6-7 post: 9 for con as well as detailed breakup of expected winning seats for con they got right

Exact correct pred in Punjab BJP+10 con2

TN expectation was 32-34 for con-dmk, final result 35, AIADMK/BJP pre poll 4-5, final result 0, left got 5

This was in 2004 when all pollsters had got it wrong.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 14 May 2014 11:18

habal wrote:Do not fly on Boeing, varna dhoondte rah jaoge.

Embraer or A380?

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 14 May 2014 11:23

Kati wrote:It'll be interesting if Putin send the first official invitation to NaMo. Capitalist Russia can invest heavily in Bharat and vice versa to avoid massa's unpredictable/unriable behavior.

And finally we have Commissioned INS Vikramaditya too.

habal · Post by **habal** » 14 May 2014 11:23

I was thinking again that why doesn't Air India launch some kind of boutique premium airline with all black & golden livery and spinning alloy rims and Khalsa theme and one of that can be made into Air Force one equivalent for Modi.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 14 May 2014 11:38

NaMo will lose onlee.

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 14 May 2014 11:47

krishnan wrote:
So they did their own – and the party has an outfit uniquely capable of carrying out exit polling on a large scale: The block-level RSS workers.

...

I would take the results of a full fledged political organization like the RSS/BJP or the INC over any research agency. But then there's the tendency to bury actual findings if they turn out to be worse than expected - for H&D and to come up with a new strategy. In Malluland from what I heard the CPM internal survey actually painted a bleak picture but they are putting up a "sure 11-16 seats" face for H&D reasons.
From the grapevine the INC conservatively expects 110 approx giving UPA 150 - dunno if it is AFTER H&D correction or BEFORE. But what I don't understand is why the party/UPA is not public with an expected number - even one that's H&D corrected. All I hear is "We are all responsible" and "Opinion/Exit Polls are time-pass" quips or other inanities.

OTOH the way BJP leadership is talking about the future cabinet allotments and policies I think they really believe pre-poll NDA can surely manage this 259 number AT THE MINIMUM. Hence the 300 seat maximalist prediction and the fact they are bold enough to speak out like this. IMO anything over total 230 is comfortable - for either fronts. If the results are anything less than this they will all look like giant suckers and NM is going to be in trouble from all sides. Remember, it was he who upped the game.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 14 May 2014 11:55

Monitor foreign funding of religious groups,NGOs,etc.The PMANE quislings who are still plotting to sabotage the Koodankulam N-plant,still conducting "vigils" (paid for by whom?) and refuse to accept the SC's verdict on the issue and want to prevent the planned expansion of the N-plant,must be stopped in their tracks.In fact all N-pants should be declared/treated as defence establishments,to prevent sabotage,etc.

The fundamental task for the new govt. is to out India back on track in every sphere.The economy,national identity,foreign relations,defence and security strengthening,agriculture-the backbone of the country,infrastructure,industrial growth,education,health,building up energy resources and power production including renewable energy incentives,etc., and especially reducing the stranglehold of babudom ,the Delhi Durbar,and reducing red tape.

Gush-Gush as Def. Min? ye Gods! How about Shourie?

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 14 May 2014 12:02

EVM rigging may play spoilsport with exit poll predictions

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 14 May 2014 12:08

from above link, should put to rest that EVM cannot be manipulated

Exit polls depend on self-reporting. Rigging factors would not be captured in exit polls self-reporting. What kind of rigging would go undetected by exit polls?

1. Pre-poll EVM rigging, where the EVM is manipulated in such a way that all choices go to a single party. A number of such flawed machines were found.

2. EVM rigging during polls, where one person votes multiple times, as Sharad Pawar called for or is alleged to have happened in UP, Bihar and West Bengal.

3. Post-poll EVM capture and counting manipulation. This could happen with technology flaws to manipulate the final results and also it has been alleged that EVMs are not in safe custody.

All these scenarios can result in a significant difference between the final results and the exit polls. Such a difference should not be taken lightly if it occurs in the 2014 Lok Sabha election results. The stakes for free and fair election in India are too high to be brushed away.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 14 May 2014 12:31

mchilian wrote:
Karan M wrote: FFS, Sushma Swaraj as Def Min? That completely vacuous lady? I'd prefer Antony.
Second that. Hope NaMo doesnt go overboard in placating all the sulking deadweight. If a ministry is what it takes, perhaps non-critical ministries could be assigned instead.

Which ministries are 'non-critical'?

member_28025 · Post by **member_28025** » 14 May 2014 12:38

panduranghari wrote:
Which ministries are 'non-critical'?

If none exists, start one and call it Ministry of non-critical affairs.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 14 May 2014 12:56

Raghunath AS ‏@asraghunath 12m

Got to know Hansa poll by ndtv is also giving NDA around 285!

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 14 May 2014 12:58

Ooo noooo. Susie aunty will go critical if allotted non critical ministry.

The only non critical ministry I can think about is External affairs - in the role it currently is. Give that to Susie.

The real external affairs should fall under the PM directly where a hybrid is established between the ministry of culture, ministry of home affairs and Ministry of commerce. Beat them really hard with soft power stick at every opportunity.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 14 May 2014 12:58

NDTV says 285: This is going to send Singhas BP up

member_28025 · Post by **member_28025** » 14 May 2014 13:00

panduranghari wrote:Ooo noooo. Susie aunty will go critical if allotted non critical ministry.

The only non critical ministry I can think about is External affairs - in the role it currently is. Give that to Susie.

The real external affairs should fall under the PM directly where a hybrid is established between the ministry of culture, ministry of home affairs and Ministry of commerce. Beat them really hard with soft power stick at every opportunity.

From what I hear, NaMo is planning to include foreign trade in External Affairs Ministry, not something Susie can handle. Why not give Women's and children's affairs to her?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 14 May 2014 13:02

^^
I had the same idea.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 14 May 2014 13:03

Nope, we need a serious performer in the WCD. It is one area where only a serious perfomer will do.

Come to think of it. none of the ministries today are in a shape, that they can take a non serious player.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 14 May 2014 13:06

Let us give her 'MFN with Pak ministry'. No one seems to be serious about that.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 14 May 2014 13:08

Dibu ji,

member_28025 · Post by **member_28025** » 14 May 2014 13:19

Dilbu wrote:Let us give her 'MFN with Pak ministry'. No one seems to be serious about that.

What is MFN?

Dlbuji, ek aur baar ho jaay aapka anti-jinx!

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 14 May 2014 13:26

Actually NaMo should cut down on few of these dead wood ministries like Minority Affairs, Shipping ministry, Urban development etc.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 14 May 2014 13:28

NDTV ‏@ndtv 59m

BJP leaders in a huddle; Advani could be considered for Speaker's role, say sources. Track updates http://bit.ly/1dDhTJg #Elections2014