Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

member_28025
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby member_28025 » 14 May 2014 22:19

SaiK wrote:10.36 pm: NDTV gives BJP 279 seats on its own, 103 for Congress
fp

begin your shibbernatics!


103 for Congress or UPA? I don't want Congies to enter into triple digits.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Shanmukh » 14 May 2014 22:23

Shamlee wrote:
SaiK wrote:10.36 pm: NDTV gives BJP 279 seats on its own, 103 for Congress
fp

begin your shibbernatics!


103 for Congress or UPA? I don't want Congies to enter into triple digits.


Both Cong, BJP figures mentioned in post above are for UPA, NDA respectively. BJP, Cong are getting 235 and 79 seats respectively.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby yvijay » 14 May 2014 22:27

When does the counting start on May 16th and how long does it take finish the counting ? If it takes the whole day, I want to take day off as I have to stay awake all night.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Singha » 14 May 2014 22:27

Shekhar Gupta - BJP is the new AGP. the AGP has vanished with 0 predicted.

it seems RSS asked the BJP to go it alone, instead of associating with damaged brand like AGP

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 14 May 2014 22:28

What is AGP

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 14 May 2014 22:30

If rNDTV says 279 then it is going to be 330 guys. Looks like chakya will be right

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Chandragupta » 14 May 2014 22:30

Asom Gana parishad

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Supratik » 14 May 2014 22:30

Singha wrote:total demolition job in UP by Namo & Amit shah if this comes true

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ty-38mFUr-E

in bihar ndtv claims 70% of muslims and 70% of yadavs went together to vote for RJD.

can someone educate us on the history of the UP-Bihar yadavs, their link if any to the old dwaraka yadavs and why they persist in still being the caste bandwagon when everyone else seems pro-development ?



Power. They think a Yadav+Muslim votes will give them exclusive power. Jaichand tactics. Only when they start loosing repeatedly will it come unstuck.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby IndraD » 14 May 2014 22:31

congis whining no.s r fudged , actual results will be shocking and establish UPA3 back, I hope AmitShah & Co. have plans to neutralize any dirty trick.
IN Sangroor AAP is guarding evms themselves around circle of crpf.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby brihaspati » 14 May 2014 22:32

Singha wrote:total demolition job in UP by Namo & Amit shah if this comes true

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ty-38mFUr-E

in bihar ndtv claims 70% of muslims and 70% of yadavs went together to vote for RJD.

can someone educate us on the history of the UP-Bihar yadavs, their link if any to the old dwaraka yadavs and why they persist in still being the caste bandwagon when everyone else seems pro-development ?


Largely a result of early Gandhian-Nehruvian politics in Bihar+UP. Their early betrayal at the hands of the Allahabad clique+some previous traditional monk/religious-sectarian movements, always made them ripe for distrusting further north/western forces. Any such forces. They have had a tricky relationship with Muslim groupings, and all is not all that hunky dory. Its just an alliance of convenience, based on that regional distrust of Delhi - and felt need to have a block based on local identities. Same as in Bengal.

JP's uneasy relations with Gandhi+Nehru, made him look for cross community alliances, which given our intellectual propensities took the form of super-subtle ideological shenanigans, that takes a life of its own - even if it was just rhetorical in intent and completely insincere in its political motives.

Its the senior Yadavs [senior in sense of established networks in power] + Muslim topcats - each threatened by the pan-Indian nature of the coming wave [not Namo but the force that made NM possible from people's side]. The lower younger orders are already drifting in predictable directions. Muslims towards mughalistan. Yadavas to saffron. A small section will join the naxals - but of course from the "Hindu" side.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Raja » 14 May 2014 22:33

NDTV claimed that their sample size of > 100K. Not bad.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 14 May 2014 22:35

Raja wrote:NDTV claimed that their sample size of > 100K. Not bad.


Did they say telephonic or field?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby rvishwak » 14 May 2014 22:36

Well, what does 543 guy says? only one day to go before results are out.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Mihaylo » 14 May 2014 22:37

:
Singha wrote:it seems so . NDA > UPA + others 279 vs 264

and of the others, JJ + Patnaik will be 40.

while one is not yet allowed to drink anything, time to loosen the corks on bottles me thinks :D maybe sniff the alcohol a little just to make sure its good.



:rotfl: :rotfl: sniff sniff. I am going to be on something very very strong on the 15th.

Namo will lose only :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby RajeshA » 14 May 2014 22:38

IBTL ‏@IndiaBTL 11m

Final Tally #IBTLPoll
NDA 315
UPA 102
Others 126

IBTL ‏@IndiaBTL 9m

Breakup of 316 seats of NDA in #IBTLPoll

BJP 268
TDP 15
SS 14
SAD 4
LJP 3
PMK 3
MDMK 2
MYT 2
RLSP 1
NPP 1
NPF 1
HJC 1
NRC 1

IBTL ‏@IndiaBTL 5m

Breakup of 102 seats of UPA in #IBTLPoll
Congress 82
RJD 9
NCP 6
IUML 2
JMM 1
NC 1
KCM 1
Last edited by RajeshA on 14 May 2014 22:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby KJo » 14 May 2014 22:39

What time does counting begin?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 14 May 2014 22:41

I'll snif macallan 25!

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby shyamoo » 14 May 2014 22:48

Victor wrote:
Singha wrote:while one is not yet allowed to drink anything, time to [b]loosen the corks on bottles me thinks :D maybe sniff the alcohol a little [/b]just to make sure its good.

Sacrilege! For a once-in-a-lifetime event like this, we must throw the cap away once unscrewed.

Yup! Drink in joy

or to drown your sorrows.

Either way no way will the cap be screwed back on...

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 14 May 2014 22:49

the only sorrow we have is kala angrez now

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby disha » 14 May 2014 22:50

milindc wrote:
ramana wrote:So milind, Can you share what you concluded on recent electionis in just general way? Or do you want us to die of agony with rNDTV type water torture?



BJP states (Chhattisgarh + Gujarat + MP + Rajasthan + Goa : 100 seats ) : expected 88-94
United UP (UP + Bihar + Jharkhand + Uttarakhand : 139 seats) : expected 92 - 100
Other (Haryana + Punjab + Maharashtra + Delhi + Himachal + AP + Assam + Karnataka + Arunachal) : expected 57 - 67

Total expected (per my opinion) : 237 - 261

Either way there will NaMo led NDA



This puts it around 220 - 245 of my own analysis. At around 5-6th phase, my own data showed around 243 seats for BJP.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby IndraD » 14 May 2014 22:52

@Singha Any community underdeveloped, not in mainstream tends to form votebank, it has nothing to do with mistrust on North IMHO, let development & education reach them and they will cease to be vote bank
such community may also feel powerful enough to change course of election due to sheer number.
In Bihar Yadav derived pleasure for one of them (Lalu) ruling the state
And it was enough for them to keep him in power for 15 years
Only OBC candidates like Modi can break this jinx

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby amdavadi » 14 May 2014 22:55

NDTV=Nehru Dienasty Tv

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 14 May 2014 22:56

Praveen Patil 543 guy says 333 for NDA

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Shanmukh » 14 May 2014 22:59

muraliravi wrote:
Raja wrote:NDTV claimed that their sample size of > 100K. Not bad.


Did they say telephonic or field?


They were mentioning that they had an exit poll where people press a button (on a phone?) for their favoured parties (the new method was to ensure that even the person collecting the sample would not know which button the voter had pressed). Voters were not requested to tell the sample collector their choice. From the method, it appears to me that it was a telephonic survey (where you press buttons on a phone). But I don't recall it being specifically mentioned.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby brat » 14 May 2014 22:59

muraliravi wrote:
Raja wrote:NDTV claimed that their sample size of > 100K. Not bad.


Did they say telephonic or field?


Field
also claimed by Proy, they had the voter select his "exit-vote" on a tab resembling the EVM and so that even the field guy would not know the choice.

Nageshks Ji beat me to that :)
Last edited by brat on 14 May 2014 23:04, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Patni » 14 May 2014 23:02

muraliravi wrote:
Raja wrote:NDTV claimed that their sample size of > 100K. Not bad.


Did they say telephonic or field?


Lok Sabha Exit and Post Poll - Methodology

The "Exit Poll" analysis and forecasts are based on combining two separate survey methodologies: i) Polling Booth surveys ii) Post Poll Household surveys.

1. Polling Booth Exit Polls: a sample size 63740 voters - involves randomly selecting polling booths across the country and as voters emerge from these polling booths a randomised selection of voters are questioned on which party they voted for.

2. Post Poll Exit Polls: a sample size of 91712 voters.

The fieldwork and the tabulation for the Polling Booth Exit Polls and the Post Poll Exit Polls was carried out by Hansa Research.


Overview: Exit Polls were conducted at polling booths on election days. Voters were interviewed as they came out of polling booths. Interviewers were asked to interview every fifth voter and ask him to indicate the candidate/party for which he had voted.

Constituencies Covered: The Exit Polls covered 265 constituencies across 19 major states. The proportion of constituencies covered was higher in states where major political changes had happened. Nearly all Parliamentary constituencies were covered in states like AP / Telengana, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and Delhi. Parliamentary Constituencies chosen for the Exit Polls were representative of the socio-political regions within the state.


OVERALL SUMMARY OF ALL OPINION POLLS

Pre Election Polls Sample Size (in 2 phases): 90,339
Pre Election update Polls sample Size: 14722
Pre Election Telephonic Re-contact Sample Size : 18324 over the duration of polling
Post Election Exit Polls Sample Size: 63740
Post Election Post Poll: 91712
Total Interviews over the polling schedule: 278837

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 14 May 2014 23:02

543 close to chanakya!

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby amdavadi » 14 May 2014 23:05

praveen patil, PP guy, chanakya all are around 333-340......

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby vivek.rao » 14 May 2014 23:08

Anantha wrote:Praveen Patil 543 guy says 333 for NDA


Where? I don't see his updates on twitter or his web site

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Raja » 14 May 2014 23:13

Based on the first 30 minutes of the NDTV exit poll show that I watched, I would not say that they were particularly brownnosing dynasty. They had a healthy discussion about how the dynasty politics is killing Congress. Also, the panelists seemed to agree that there was a definite Modi factor. Accordingly, I would have to disagree with some of the remarks being made in this thread.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Shanmukh » 14 May 2014 23:13

muraliravi wrote:So more than one poll is giving bjp 40% in UP. If they really get 40%, no way they will get just 56, they will easily hit early 60's. With just 35% they got 58/85 in undivided UP.


They got 36.4% in 98, and got 60/85 seats, but they had got all 5 seats in Uttarakhand. Out of the 80 in present UP, BJP had got 52, and their allies had got 3. If BJP actually hits 40% of the vote, except for some Muslim strongholds in the west (Bijnor, Rampur, Moradabad, Sambhal) and Yadav strongholds in the centre (Kannauj, Etawah, Mainpuri, and maybe Firozabad), BJP can expect to win everything else of significance. Four seats in particular are what I would call intensity markers (can be used to determine the intensity of the NaMo wave). If anyone can post ground information of Phulpur, Budaun, Jaunpur and Gonda, please do so. These four are really hard seats for the BJP, and except for Gonda (which has changed a bit post-delimitation), the BJP has never won these. If anyone can tell us the ground situation for the BJP here, we will be in a good way to understanding how the BJP is doing here.
Last edited by Shanmukh on 14 May 2014 23:16, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 14 May 2014 23:14

IndraD wrote:@Singha Any community underdeveloped, not in mainstream tends to form votebank, it has nothing to do with mistrust on North IMHO, let development & education reach them and they will cease to be vote bank
such community may also feel powerful enough to change course of election due to sheer number.
In Bihar Yadav derived pleasure for one of them (Lalu) ruling the state
And it was enough for them to keep him in power for 15 years
Only OBC candidates like Modi can break this jinx

Are yadavs BCs?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 14 May 2014 23:15

before christ

Shanmukh
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Shanmukh » 14 May 2014 23:15

Raja wrote:Based on the first 30 minutes of the NDTV exit poll show that I watched, I would not say that they were particularly brownnosing dynasty. They had a healthy discussion about how the dynasty politics is killing Congress. Also, the panelists seemed to agree that there was a definite Modi factor. Accordingly, I would have to disagree with some of the remarks being made in this thread.


RrNDTV still had N Ram and Sudheendra Kulkarni as `independent experts' in their talk show. Another independent expert was that rumour mongering lad Shekhar Gupta. When these are the independent experts, then the show doesn't have much credibility.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Ashok Sarraff » 14 May 2014 23:18

muraliravi wrote:
Raja wrote:NDTV claimed that their sample size of > 100K. Not bad.


Did they say telephonic or field?


They had tablets! The voters could click whichever party he/she voted!

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby svenkat » 14 May 2014 23:23

i believe BRF should take the lead in ignoring Undie TV,CNN IBN,Headlines Today and Times NOw.Why give viewership ratings to all these buffoons/criminals.

NewsX is enough to get an idea what the presstitutes are saying. It is the most venomous of them all.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 14 May 2014 23:29

milindc wrote:All, don't know where this news should go but being a BRFite wanted to share with comrades
I was big part of this
http://www.informationweek.in/informati ... ore-voters

And I guess you have figured out which party we worked for, coming out now that elections are done.


Wow. Good work guys. Wish you all the best and you get lots and lots of big data projects from all over the world and grow to be bigger more famous than SAS.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 14 May 2014 23:30

http://www.epw.in/election-specials/sta ... polls.html

what is your take on the corrections to apply?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 14 May 2014 23:36

SaiK wrote:http://www.epw.in/election-specials/status-opinion-polls.html

what is your take on the corrections to apply?


There are 3 ways to look at it,

1. Surveys generally overestimate BJP, which will lead to the conclusion that BJP will end up at 190 and NDA at 230, instead of the 235 for BJP and 280 for NDA being predicted.

2. Surveys got it totally wrong in 2004. They improved in 2009 and got the wind direction right, but failed to gauge the intensity of the wind. This will lead to the conclusion that BJP will do even better than the predictions.

3. Ignore all surveys, follow the only survey that has gotten all elections correct from 2004 (including 2004 LS) which is Chanakya and start celebrating, because if they are again correct, then OMG

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Suraj » 14 May 2014 23:53

I'm not sure whether to view this as a case of overestimating one party over the other. I also find it hard to directly correlate results from previous elections as a basis to make assertions about this one. For example, neither UPA-1 nor NDA was as unpopular as UPA-2 is today. The socio-economic circumstances are also wildly different, as is the voting demographic. For probably the first time, the 18-35 demographic was the majority of the voters. When we talk about our demographic dividend, this is part of it.

The themes surrounding this election also puts the final nail in the coffin of the 'economic development is not politically beneficial' argument. I would argue that as late as till 2009, the question of development remained a question - i.e. what is more politically important, growth or redistribution ? Until this election, I believe the answer was not clearly the former. The UPA-1's redistributive policies benefited it politically in 2009. In 2014, people are also largely familiar with the costs of that redistribution, having seen growth-oriented and redistribution-oriented policies at work.

In 1996 and 2004, growth-oriented governments fell because there wasn't sufficient support yet for growth over redistribution. That's why 'aam aadmi ko kya hua' was actually politically useful in 2004. If the results in this election follow exit poll trends, we're looking at the aam aadmi clearly supporting growth ten years after that election. 1999 on the other hand was most comparable to 1971 - a post war election. 2014 should therefore be compared to a prior election where an incumbent is largely unpopular and the opposition is galvanized around another political option. The closest, but not exact, analogy is 1977.

How does this translate to polling ? I believe that at least until 2004, localized voting preferences dominated the themes of the elections, so any effort to convert voteshare to seats was fraught with localized factors. In 2004, the overall ELM talk about growth did not percolate down sufficiently to a voting population who still favored redistribution. 2009 was more of the same - the policies initiated after 2004 had generated benefits, but the costs were not yet apparent. I find it very hard to understand why a 2009 UPA win was in doubt; they had 8.5% growth AND a huge populist dole program running. Post 2008, the costs have piled up, and in 2014, there's a fairly clear picture in everyone's mind about whether redistribution works.

My own estimate as a result is that equivalent or higher voteshare than 1999 should generate an even better seat conversion ratio than back then, because at that time the localized seatwise voteshare division was more pronounced, while it was less so this time around, based primarily on stopping the BJP and not intrinsic desires of the voters at large (except arguably for the Muslim community). People ultimately vote for what they seek, not for a party's compulsions regarding an opponent.


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