Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

SaiK
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 14 May 2014 23:59

and anyone on the aaplets performing good in punjab (chanakya - 32%)?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 00:16

vivek.rao wrote:
Anantha wrote:Praveen Patil 543 guy says 333 for NDA


Where? I don't see his updates on twitter or his web site

I dont subscribe to the site. I saw prassana vishy or Iconoclast quoting PP's projections

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Kati » 15 May 2014 00:17

My take is very simple.
The pollsters get a more accurate info from urban voters which tend to be pro BJP (at least in 2004 and 2009). On the other hand, the rural voters either keep quiet, or do not give correct info (or provide a body language which gives wrong impression). Hence the projected results are/were skewed in favor of BJP.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 00:17

Prassana Vishy has said CSDS poll is the most accurate (282 seats)

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 00:20

From Iconoclast
240-260 for BJP by itself is what @5Forty3 has predicted.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 15 May 2014 00:20

kati, if the villagers have to use the same tablet screen to touch, then where is the body language? unless there was no such device used to collect the data.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Suraj » 15 May 2014 00:23

UPA made significant new inroads into the urban vote in 2009. Yet, arguably urban-biased exit polls did not capture the intensity of the result then. Here's an article with some data:
For decades, the Congress has been banking on rural voters, wooing them with doles and development schemes. However, in the 2009 general election, it was the support from urban voters that helped bring the UPA back to power; Of the 201 urban Lok Sabha seats, the UPA bagged 115 in 2009 (see graphic). Of the 342 rural seats, the alliance won 147, or 15 per cent more seats than it did in 2004. The voting pattern contradicted the belief that urban areas traditionally vote for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). But instead of rewarding this new found support base, the Congress-led UPA government remained largely aloof to their issues."As many as 12 of total 19 flagship schemes of UPA focused on rural India," a Congress leader told dna on condition of anonymity. "Of the remaining, just one, the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), was actually meant to benefit urban India."

Even JNNURM, a transport and infrastructure upgradation scheme, has failed to achieve anything concrete. Half its projects are incomplete and the scheme's second phase has been stalled to free up government funds for the food security scheme and other initiatives for the rural benefit.

I don't agree with the urban vs rural polling accuracy issue. In fact, Lok Sabha is slightly skewed in favor of urban vs rural, i.e. 201 urban vs 342 rural seats, or a 37:63 breakdown, while 2001 urban:rural ratio was 28:72 (31:69 in 2011). This should intrinsically benefit growth oriented NDA, but it did not, until now.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 15 May 2014 00:29

What I am leading to is the argument I want to pitch in..

ie, it was a difference made by some leadership qualities.. there was none during last two decades for BJP, and these aged goons were pathetic to even keep up party politics.

The diff was Modi. remove Modi, we are back with Kangrez.. people choose the known family for unavailability of genuine leadership.

moral: please support any form Moditva or a person who stands for development and growth. who can think for the nation.

--

but, punjab is jabbing the hell out of that argument.. forget gelf and commie states.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 01:08

Lagadapati Rajagopal is considered a reliable pollster
national exit poll BJP-280, NDA 320-320)
Congress-60-70”

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Rahul M » 15 May 2014 01:15

Suraj, there's another opinion on this

>> The UPA-1's redistributive policies benefited it politically in 2009.

PC echoed the view couple of weeks ago that UPA had actually suffered reverses among the rural voters, the main beneficiary of its largesse policies like farm lone waiver etc and it was the urban voter, especially the middle class that came to their rescue. he said something to the tune of UPA derived the wrong lessons from 2009 win and is paying the price for it.

kati ji, undyTV's partner hansa had an interesting methodology, they asked people to press their preferred choice on a simulated EVM in a tab, thus avoiding some of the problems.

Anantha ji, more than his own ? that's surprising.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 15 May 2014 01:29

Anantha wrote:Prassana Vishy has said CSDS poll is the most accurate (282 seats)


I second that and will add a caveat. CSDS gets direction right, they generally lowball the intensity. Chanakya gets both right. So in a way if you look at csds and chanakya together, BJP will get 272+ on their own.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Manu » 15 May 2014 01:35

ramana wrote:All these polls if they dont give +/- range are bokwas.

Anyway hope the Congress mendacity even after defeat will also be defeated.

I want that Sadhvi Pragnya to be released right on may16th. Enough nonsense.

And put those police & politicians guys who tortured her in jail for Human Rights abuses.

---
VKS can enable the CDS position finally.


+Col. Purohit and many others

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby sivab » 15 May 2014 01:35

muraliravi wrote:BJP will get 272+ on their own.


Are you changing your estimate of 190 now?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby IndraD » 15 May 2014 01:41

why are sadhwy pragya and many others in jail if there are no charges against them, can't a good lawyer help them

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Karan M » 15 May 2014 01:44

Which lawyer would take on the UPA? Plus another reason to loathe the BJP under D4. They did nothing to help these poor folks.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby A Sharma » 15 May 2014 01:46

who r all in this D4?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Karan M » 15 May 2014 01:53

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/r ... e50470.ece
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110913/j ... 500713.jsp

Note tho that venkaiah Naidu and Jaitley were both pro modi. The rot seems to have started from advani himself.

And the term was apparently coined by Kanchan Gupta...

.......
Apart from Sushma’s tweet, another by a pipe-smoking journalist who is a special invitee to the BJP’s national executive and some of the RSS’s strategy sessions, was animatedly discussed because it hinted darkly at internal mischief against Modi. It said: “I can bet my (new) ‘gamchcha’ Delhi 4 in deep depression, inconsolable. I can bet my (used) Dunhill briar Delhi 4 will now prop up Advani.”

“Delhi 4” was described as a “concept” to mean the BJP’s dominant cabal, but that it comprised Sushma, Jaitley, M. Venkaiah Naidu and Ananth Kumar was known to the party because the same journalist had liberally used the phrase at the height of the power struggle in 2009-10 before the RSS stepped in and nominated Nitin Gadkari as party president.

So how did the BJP perceive Modi’s role after the Supreme Court ruling?

While Prasad emphasised that he was “already an important national leader”, some sources listed the pros and cons of projecting him as the party’s central face.

“If you take a straw poll of our cadres, 10 out of 10 will root for Modi. They see him as uncompromised, clean and incorruptible. They are not concerned about the cases he’s fighting. Advaniji, too, has been named in the Babri case. Did that prevent him from becoming the deputy Prime Minister?” asked an Uttar Pradesh leader.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby IndraD » 15 May 2014 02:11

Perhaps taking up case of Sadhwi and others is a security threat as well otherwise publicity hungry M L Sharma et al have done many PIL against cngis

why didn't Swamy help them?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby pankajs » 15 May 2014 02:22

Image

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 15 May 2014 02:31

All India exit poll: CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti final projections
2014 Post Poll Survey- till 12th May2014 Post Poll Survey- after 12th May
http://cf.datawrapper.de/2BaUz/2/?fs=1

Projected seat share across exit polls
BJP+Congress+Other
http://cf.datawrapper.de/arZZU/3/?fs=1

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/exit- ... 20299.html

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SwamyG » 15 May 2014 02:34

SwamyG wrote:
muraliravi wrote:He should not be in jail. Let him express him opinion. No one should go to jail for expressing their opinion of any sorts on Twitter/FB or even in public unless they create a law and order situation. Actually Namo should strive for an India with full freedom of speech just like the US.

If you are going to bring in USA, then USA has strong laws and implementation on hate speech and threat of violence. This Moron has been saying dangerous things for a long time. It is not freedom of speech.

Murali saar, looks like the guy has been arrested now. :mrgreen: The results are not even announced yet. What will happen if Modi becomes the PM :rotfl:.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ramana » 15 May 2014 02:40

Err SwamyG. It doesn't have anything to do with Modi. The guy was amking rabid threats and some of our faithtful warned me not to tangle with the chap. Just not right in a democracy. It could be the 2G had the guy taken in to cool him down.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 02:45

That guy also tweeted that they had assembled guns and Sanghi blood will flow. No wonder a quick FIR was filed that did the job. As usual no MSM media/juno has covered it

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 02:50

IndraD wrote:why are sadhwy pragya and many others in jail if there are no charges against them, can't a good lawyer help them

A couple of weeks ago CBI has (officially) said there is no evidence in seven terror cases (all Hindus). Pretty much the 7 cases are the ones that were attributed to Hindu terror including Sadhvi Pragya and Samjhauta blasts. In less than a month they will all be released.
Last edited by Anantha on 15 May 2014 02:55, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby KJo » 15 May 2014 02:51

Shri Ram Jai Ram Jai Jai Ram!
Shri Ram Jai Ram Jai Jai Ram!
Shri Ram Jai Ram Jai Jai Ram!
Shri Ram Jai Ram Jai Jai Ram!
Shri Ram Jai Ram Jai Jai Ram!
Shri Ram Jai Ram Jai Jai Ram!
Shri Ram Jai Ram Jai Jai Ram!
Shri Ram Jai Ram Jai Jai Ram!

Slay the evil ones who have overrun Bharat Mata!
Image

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 02:55

Tomorrow's sunset will be the sunset of the outside empires and their residuals in India. The sunrise on 16th will be of a new free resurgent intellectual leader of the free world-Bharatvarsh

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ramana » 15 May 2014 02:55

Anantha wrote:
IndraD wrote:why are sadhwy pragya and many others in jail if there are no charges against them, can't a good lawyer help them

A couple of weeks ago CBI has (officially) said there is no evidence in seven terror cases (all Hindus). Pretty much the 7 cases are the ones that were attributed to Hindus including Dadhvi Pragya and Samjhauta blasts. In less than a month they will all be released.



So if they have no evidence then whay are they still in jail? Can CBI answer that? Is it Shinde keeping them in jail?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 03:00

Yes to all. Sonia and her gang are keeping them in with zero evidence. Because it is poll time, CBI announced it ahead of the polls so that they don't get into trouble. Expect heads to roll very soon.
Unfortunately I did not save the link. It was in MSM. try Google.
The amount of hatred this Sonia witch has on Hindus is unbelievable.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Mort Walker » 15 May 2014 03:18

Anantha wrote:Tomorrow's sunset will be the sunset of the outside empires and their residuals in India. The sunrise on 16th will be of a new free resurgent intellectual leader of the free world-Bharatvarsh


Well said. The 16th of May 2014 will be the real independence day for Bharatvarsh.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 15 May 2014 03:20

kJo can't you find better art works like this:
http://www.krsna-art.com/index.php?p=pics&kid=81 ?

btw, the italian devil is not dead.. it has been sent back for friday dawn. 100+others still could make a strike back scratch back dharna and mafia works. they will show both in aap side street mobs, and trigger riots ands bigots in parliament.

then we will talk about how pathetic we have a consolidation of the democracy being danced by evils.

hang on tight! if you have dhoti + chaddie or without, just shibber for two nights.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 15 May 2014 03:33

RamaY wrote:
milindc wrote:All, don't know where this news should go but being a BRFite wanted to share with comrades
I was big part of this
http://www.informationweek.in/informati ... ore-voters

And I guess you have figured out which party we worked for, coming out now that elections are done.


Congratulations MilindC ji... :mrgreen:


Hats off to milindc and team. Stupendous effort. Just imagine - mapping *all* the 81 crore voters in the country...

Folks, all those of us who were there at last yr's Hyd meet, recall the prophetic proceedings from that meet only...

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ramana » 15 May 2014 03:35

For timepass till the results come out, how about recounting those proceedings for those who werent there in flesh?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 15 May 2014 03:41

sivab wrote:
muraliravi wrote:BJP will get 272+ on their own.


Are you changing your estimate of 190 now?


No sir, my prediction stays. I am just telling you what these surveys could mean. I will be happy to be wrong

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 03:42

Kamal Nath on Headlines today whining how Congis were slow in understanding the power of SM. Need to learn a thing or two from their B team. Khujli used to tweet 1st after a thappad before applying cream.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 03:54

BJD spokesman on Times now: Orissa has been historically neglected. Give us a Package, we will support NDA (basically bribe). About 15 seats in play

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 15 May 2014 03:56

Amma is waiting for results.. any flesh trade, she would immediately jump. I hope NaMo does not have to deal with this lady post-poll. I wish she faces the sith sins for shaming acharyas and suffer from worst curse possible. well.. it does not work like that in evil worlds unless there is some goodness that penetrates.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SwamyG » 15 May 2014 04:01

Anantha wrote:Kamal Nath on Headlines today whining how Congis were slow in understanding the power of SM. Need to learn a thing or two from their B team. Khujli used to tweet 1st after a thappad before applying cream.


If he was going to latrine, before getting a lotta of water, he let the media know that event. And media treated it as if no human had ever taken a dump before in the history of mankind.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby putnanja » 15 May 2014 04:01

Irrespective of whether BJP gets majority on its own or not, it is better to keep BJD/AIADMK in good humour. Those states are fertile for further BJP growth, and these parties are pretty much anti-cong. For BJD, cong is the main opposition. Their MPs in rajya sabha will also be valuable when required.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby James B » 15 May 2014 04:02

CSDS is a post-poll as opposed to exit poll.

Exit poll is done by pollsters who ask the choice of voters while exiting polling booths after voting - so the sample is random but may not be representative of the society of that polling booth/constituency & hence not very robust.

While on the other hand post poll is a robust method because it randomly chooses representative voters from the electoral rolls & then go to their homes to ask them to whom they have voted. Here vote share calculation will be very accurate & representative. The only problem will be during vote share to seat share conversion. This is where First Past Post System (FPPS) complicates the calculations especially when the fight is triangular or quadrangular. So the vote share to seat share calculation in bipolar contest states like Guj, MP, CG, Raj, MH, AP, Kerala will be much easier & accurate than in multipolar contest states like UP, Bihar, Orissa, WB, TN etc.

Once the results are out you can observe this by yourselves.

This time even NDTV went with post-poll methodology rather than exit-poll methodology. Post-poll methodology can be conservative and can err more on upper side than on lower side. If CSDS-IBN & NDTV-Hansa are giving 280 seats to NDA, it means if it made an error on lower side NDA will still get 260-270 seats but if it made an error on upper side, NDA can easily go up to 320 or more.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 15 May 2014 04:03

sure.. might need them for passing big bills.. but only as non-ruling external supporters.


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