Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 15 May 2014 04:07

ramana wrote:For timepass till the results come out, how about recounting those proceedings for those who werent there in flesh?

Well saar, in that meet, milindc demo-ed the work he was doing right down to the booth level. The insights that emerge once you have voters mapped down to street address and basic demography was astounding only.

The clear cut strat to target youth demographic seemed like a no-brainer back then even, with the data opening up like that...

swamyG, narayan Rao garu, RamaY, nkumar, yours truly were the other guys at the meet apart from milindc, of course.

Doston, ek meet aur banta hai... in a new India.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 15 May 2014 04:08

Anantha wrote:BJD spokesman on Times now: Orissa has been historically neglected. Give us a Package, we will support NDA (basically bribe). About 15 seats in play

Shouldn't be a problem. Orissa is one of the most backward states and NaMo will have to concentrate on it (among others) to fix the economy anyway. It is a win-win, but a deal should be made only if needed of course.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 15 May 2014 04:09

Anantha wrote:Kamal Nath on Headlines today whining how Congis were slow in understanding the power of SM. Need to learn a thing or two from their B team. Khujli used to tweet 1st after a thappad before applying cream.

"if only we got our messaging right" is a common and convenient whine with sore losers who can't admit actual issues. good (for bjp). if they admit it, they may be forced to change. now, they can keep telling their lies to themselves and be content. this way, bjp can overcome any moderate anti-incumbency next time.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 15 May 2014 04:12

If NDA crosses 272, NM should stay away from allying with Naveen. Odisha represents greenfield opportunity for future growth. Cong has already come 3rd in voteshare there (based on exit polls) - time for lotus to corner opposition space and become the alternative to BJD, for 2019.

Same story in WB and TN as well, IMO.

Of course, I understand, with RS strength being less, they will need whatever support they can get and all but this needs to be balanced with future growth requirements of the party.

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 15 May 2014 04:25

Hari Seldon wrote:If NDA crosses 272, NM should stay away from allying with Naveen. Odisha represents greenfield opportunity for future growth. Cong has already come 3rd in voteshare there (based on exit polls) - time for lotus to corner opposition space and become the alternative to BJD, for 2019.

Same story in WB and TN as well, IMO.

Of course, I understand, with RS strength being less, they will need whatever support they can get and all but this needs to be balanced with future growth requirements of the party.

As I mentioned before, TamilNadu is a ripe, low -hanging Dharmic fruit. Modi should put in an Amit Shah clone, fluent in Tamil and pluck it before long. A large section of the people are sick and tired of this DMK-ADMK nautanki.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 15 May 2014 04:34

There is no such shah available in TN.

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 15 May 2014 04:39

SaiK wrote:There is no such shah available in TN.

Then clone Smrti Irani I say, give her a crash course in Tamil through choice readings from Thina Thanthi and parachute her into T Nagar.

She can give Amma a run for her money.

(Rumour has it that many Tamil heroines picked up their Tamil from Thanthi!)

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 15 May 2014 04:43

SaiK wrote:Amma is waiting for results.. any flesh trade, she would immediately jump. I hope NaMo does not have to deal with this lady post-poll. I wish she faces the sith sins for shaming acharyas and suffer from worst curse possible. well.. it does not work like that in evil worlds unless there is some goodness that penetrates.

As I have been saying NDA > 255 is game over. Allies will fall over to join Modi to get benefits. Anything above 272, anyone wanting to join, will do so to remain in good books of Modi so that he does not dissolve their respective state assembly. The players in this format are TN, WB, OR, MH

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 15 May 2014 04:44

putnanja wrote:Irrespective of whether BJP gets majority on its own or not, it is better to keep BJD/AIADMK in good humour. Those states are fertile for further BJP growth, and these parties are pretty much anti-cong. For BJD, cong is the main opposition. Their MPs in rajya sabha will also be valuable when required.

Also for RS

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 15 May 2014 04:50

I hate this industrious TN unable to play non-filmy chars as heavy weight politicians. Pathetic!
The kind of honest blue collar work force they have, a decent Modilet is enough to convert that state into Singapore++

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 15 May 2014 05:21

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... -top-post/

Amit shah to clean up BCCI next

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 15 May 2014 05:40

The eastern board- Assam, West Bengal, Orissa, TG, Seemandhra, Tamil Nadu all present great opportunities for BJP to grow

In the rest of India, they need to make sure that they form state governments in MH, Haryana, UP & Bihar

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 15 May 2014 05:46

Namo will lose onlee.

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 15 May 2014 05:47

IBN live and twitter release twitter tweet statistics wrt elections:

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/these-amazin ... 52-11.html

Please note that the map of India is shows Kashmir as disputed. This was shown on headlines today as well, do anyone have a recording or snapshot of that event? It had twitter India chief and a twitter journo called Pierre Fitter gloating all over it saying that now we can datamine and influence what people are thinking in India.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 15 May 2014 06:03

Hari Seldon wrote:If NDA crosses 272, NM should stay away from allying with Naveen. Odisha represents greenfield opportunity for future growth. Cong has already come 3rd in voteshare there (based on exit polls) - time for lotus to corner opposition space and become the alternative to BJD, for 2019.

Same story in WB and TN as well, IMO.

Of course, I understand, with RS strength being less, they will need whatever support they can get and all but this needs to be balanced with future growth requirements of the party.

++1

BJP should remember their situation in Telangana in 1998. they squandered 18% vote share for coalition dharma. in that case, they had to keep entire AP in mind.

but right now, with BJP growing in TN, WB, OD, and Kerala, it would be foolish to tie up with the major regional parties there IF NDA in its existing form crosses the 272 mark.

Let BJD, ADMK, and TMC stew in suspended terror. make them see ghosts. it's not hard to make these regional satraps paranoid of their own shadows. it can be done with ruthlessness and cold calculation. in this regard, the winding up of regional strongmen/women should be a #1 priority.

in fact, for Indian geopolity in general, the winding up of regional outfits is the #1 priority going forward.

ADMK, TDP, YCP, TRS, NCP, BJD, TMC, SP, BSP: these 9 outfits are the last bastion of an old era.

if BJP truly and genuinely wants to become the Representative of ALL of India, these 9 entities can't exist indefinitely into the future. Next 10 year timeframe, they need to wind up and choose sides.

I left out DMK b/c it is a dying front.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 15 May 2014 06:06

Anantha wrote:BJD spokesman on Times now: Orissa has been historically neglected. Give us a Package, we will support NDA (basically bribe). About 15 seats in play

Blackmailing started.This is why a stable NDA Govt with full majority is essential.

I rest my hopes on TodaysChanakya.com

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 May 2014 06:07

Being distracted went to Politicsparty guy site.

Wowo the guy is on a hyper Namonamah chant.

He starts out saying 333 for NDA and now 400 supporters!

He also says no more D4 only trio of RSS, BJP and Modi

----
I think Amit Shah to BCCI is blow against DI gang and all its roots.
Yes cutting criminal-politician nexus is important to clean up the system.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 15 May 2014 06:13

BJP should allow some regional outfits to remain.

If it swallows them, it will help Congress resurrection.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 15 May 2014 06:16

In a way I feel bad for Rahul Gandhi.
He has absolutely no interest or competence in carrying forth the legacy although everything is being handed to him. He could have gotten some experience by joining the Govt as a junior minister. He strikes me as someone who doesn't really want to become PM but has no option because he is the only male Gandhi around. Outside of this, he cannot do anything else.
He may have sabotaged himself on purpose just to avoid the top job that he knows he cannot take up.

I hope he retires, starts a business or something and moves out of the limelight. Otherwise it will be a whole lifetime spent being unhappy.

Abhijit · Post by **Abhijit** » 15 May 2014 06:22

He is fit for the 'Drones club' (of PG Wodehouse). But nobody in their right mind would entrust anything of any importance to any Drones club member.

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 15 May 2014 06:25

KJo saar,

I felt the same. He is like the little prince of a kingdom (literally) who does not care about being a king. He just wants to do whatever he wants to do and it has nothing to do with ruling anything.

For the sake of the country, I hope he is the king of the 2019 version of CONgi kingdom. It is a small sacrifice he can do to save this nation from the disaster that is the CON party.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 15 May 2014 06:26

Hari Seldon wrote:If NDA crosses 272, NM should stay away from allying with Naveen. Odisha represents greenfield opportunity for future growth. Cong has already come 3rd in voteshare there (based on exit polls) - time for lotus to corner opposition space and become the alternative to BJD, for 2019.

Same story in WB and TN as well, IMO.

Of course, I understand, with RS strength being less, they will need whatever support they can get and all but this needs to be balanced with future growth requirements of the party.

BJP/NaMo are visionaries. With 272 they can cruise in LS, but what about RS. They need numbers to sail through RS, that is why these friendly overtures towards BJD, AIADMK and others.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 15 May 2014 06:43

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 15 May 2014 06:45

LokeshC wrote:KJo saar,

I felt the same. He is like the little prince of a kingdom (literally) who does not care about being a king. He just wants to do whatever he wants to do and it has nothing to do with ruling anything.

For the sake of the country, I hope he is the king of the 2019 version of CONgi kingdom. It is a small sacrifice he can do to save this nation from the disaster that is the CON party.

Thank you saar. I felt like that because I have a cousin who is that way.
He does not really want to run the family company or handle any real responsibility, but wants to hang around the corridors of management and act like a bada saaheb. My dad runs everything, but my cousin walks around and pretends to be important and have everyone call him "Sir".

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 15 May 2014 06:48

devesh wrote: ++1

BJP should remember their situation in Telangana in 1998. they squandered 18% vote share for coalition dharma. in that case, they had to keep entire AP in mind.

BJP actually had ~25% of the vote in Telangana (they had 18.4% overall in AP). But they squandered it all and lost everything they had there by supporting CBN. Tragically foolish of the BJP, in hindsight. But BJP has only itself to blame. When one realises that BJP had 25%+ of the vote in places like (erstwhile) Nalagonda, Medak, and Siddipet constituencies, one understands the enormity of the blunder committed by BJP in Telangana.

but right now, with BJP growing in TN, WB, OD, and Kerala, it would be foolish to tie up with the major regional parties there IF NDA in its existing form crosses the 272 mark.

I agree with you, but with a caveat. BJP needs good local level leaders. Pon Radhakrishnan in TN, and Sarbananda Sonowal in Assam are good party presidents, who are improving the prospects of the party. They need to be strengthened, and backed by a NaMo government. Good party presidents in Telangana, SeemaAndhra, Odisha, West Bengal and Kerala need to be found (Kerala party state is utterly deplorable).

The first task for the BJP president is to select good CM candidates for the coming elections of Haryana, Jharkhand, Bihar, Delhi, and Maharashtra. Let us see what the BJP can do.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 15 May 2014 06:58

milindc wrote:All, don't know where this news should go but being a BRFite wanted to share with comrades
I was big part of this
http://www.informationweek.in/informati ... ore-voters

And I guess you have figured out which party we worked for, coming out now that elections are done.

RamaY wrote: Congratulations MilindC ji...

Hari Seldon wrote: Hats off to milindc and team. Stupendous effort. Just imagine - mapping *all* the 81 crore voters in the country...

Folks, all those of us who were there at last yr's Hyd meet, recall the prophetic proceedings from that meet only...

milind - congrats. I am in big data analytics too for over three years now. Good job you did for the desh as compared to we videshis

. Should meet you when I come to home town next time.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 15 May 2014 07:08

While we are waiting, a song in tribute for aur beloved chaiwala

Dil ka haal sune dilwala
Chote se ghar me Gharib ka beta
Mein bhi hoon maa ke naseeb ka beta
ranj-o-gham bachpan ke saathi
aandhioon mein jalijeevan baati
bhookh ne hai bade pyar se paala

Gham se abhi aazad nahin mein
Khush hun magar aabad nahin mein
manzil meri paas khadi hai
pao mein lekin bedi padi hai
Taang adata hai daulat waala

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 15 May 2014 07:12

I was busy all day today. Just getting to internet and several pages went away. Did NDTV finally gave an exit poll?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 15 May 2014 07:13

ramana wrote:Err SwamyG. It doesn't have anything to do with Modi. The guy was amking rabid threats and some of our faithtful warned me not to tangle with the chap. Just not right in a democracy. It could be the 2G had the guy taken in to cool him down.

Ramana: He has been doing this nautanki for quite some time. I did not say Modi had something to do with his arrest. My implication is just the whiff of BJP forming a government, dharma is starting to proudly lift her chin and shower her protection to people.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 15 May 2014 07:16

Last ditch effort
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... 129163.cms

Among these leaders — who the signatories believe may hold the key to formation of a government at the Centre — are NCP chief Sharad Pawar, BSP chief Mayawati, AIADMK chief Jayalalitha, DMK chief Karunanidhi, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee, BJD's Naveen Patnaik, TRS chief K Chandrashekhar Rao, YSR Congress President Jaganmohan Reddy, H Deve Gowda of JD (S) and AAP's Arvind Kejriwal.

"Secularism is not just a catchword in election manifestos. It is the backbone of our democracy, which cannot be sacrificed in horse trading," said the appeal signed among others by Prof. Amiya Bagchi, documentary filmmaker Anand Patwardhan, vocalist Shubha Mudgal, artist Vivan Sundaram, Prof. C P Chandrasekhar, Fr Cedric Prakash, authors Githa Hariharan and Tabish Khair, Prof. Harbans Mukhia, Prof. Jayati Ghosh, Prof Prabhat Patnaik, film directors Kabir Khan, Kundan Shah and Mahesh Bhatt, Prof. Mridula Mukherjee, Prof. Rukmini Bhaya Nair, activist Shabnam Hashmi and Prof. Zoya Hasan.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 15 May 2014 07:17

Muppalla wrote:I was busy all day today. Just getting to internet and several pages went away. Did NDTV finally gave an exit poll?

rNDTV gave 289 to NDA+

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 15 May 2014 07:17

milindc wrote:All, don't know where this news should go but being a BRFite wanted to share with comrades
I was big part of this
http://www.informationweek.in/informati ... ore-voters

And I guess you have figured out which party we worked for, coming out now that elections are done.

MilindC, congratulations on the tremendous ground-work you guys did. Thanks for supporting dharma & democracy , and good luck in all dharmic work.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 15 May 2014 07:29

devesh wrote:I left out DMK b/c it is a dying front.

no its not.

people, including me, wrote off dmk many months ago, for this election.

stalin's vigorous campaigning is netting them 5 seats min. they have a solid 20 to 25% voteshare in all constituency.

pretty soon, stalin will be running everything and he does not have the baggage of having to keep the family happy (kanimozhi, azhagiri, marans' ). he has a reputation (not undeserved) of being an able administrator and he does not have corruption tag. he will revive the party. dmk will be a force to reckon with in TN.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 15 May 2014 07:30

stalin! that rascal rowdy?

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 15 May 2014 07:32

Anantha wrote:Last ditch effort
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... 129163.cms

Among these leaders — who the signatories believe may hold the key to formation of a government at the Centre — are NCP chief Sharad Pawar, BSP chief Mayawati, AIADMK chief Jayalalitha, DMK chief Karunanidhi, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee, BJD's Naveen Patnaik, TRS chief K Chandrashekhar Rao, YSR Congress President Jaganmohan Reddy, H Deve Gowda of JD (S) and AAP's Arvind Kejriwal.

"Secularism is not just a catchword in election manifestos. It is the backbone of our democracy, which cannot be sacrificed in horse trading," said the appeal signed among others by Prof. Amiya Bagchi, documentary filmmaker Anand Patwardhan, vocalist Shubha Mudgal, artist Vivan Sundaram, Prof. C P Chandrasekhar, Fr Cedric Prakash, authors Githa Hariharan and Tabish Khair, Prof. Harbans Mukhia, Prof. Jayati Ghosh, Prof Prabhat Patnaik, film directors Kabir Khan, Kundan Shah and Mahesh Bhatt, Prof. Mridula Mukherjee, Prof. Rukmini Bhaya Nair, activist Shabnam Hashmi and Prof. Zoya Hasan.

Some for eg are going to lose privilege
Zoya Hasan is occupying a Lutyens Bunglow. Mahesh Bhat's son (the David Headley case) is married to the sister of a childhood friend of pappu. Also that chota butt may go to jail for not informing Govt on 26/11 until Intelligence agents closed in on him.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 15 May 2014 07:34

Anantha wrote:Last ditch effort
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... 129163.cms

Among these leaders — who the signatories believe may hold the key to formation of a government at the Centre — are NCP chief Sharad Pawar, BSP chief Mayawati, AIADMK chief Jayalalitha, DMK chief Karunanidhi, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee, BJD's Naveen Patnaik, TRS chief K Chandrashekhar Rao, YSR Congress President Jaganmohan Reddy, H Deve Gowda of JD (S) and AAP's Arvind Kejriwal.

"Secularism is not just a catchword in election manifestos. It is the backbone of our democracy, which cannot be sacrificed in horse trading," said the appeal signed among others by Prof. Amiya Bagchi, documentary filmmaker Anand Patwardhan, vocalist Shubha Mudgal, artist Vivan Sundaram, Prof. C P Chandrasekhar, Fr Cedric Prakash, authors Githa Hariharan and Tabish Khair, Prof. Harbans Mukhia, Prof. Jayati Ghosh, Prof Prabhat Patnaik, film directors Kabir Khan, Kundan Shah and Mahesh Bhatt, Prof. Mridula Mukherjee, Prof. Rukmini Bhaya Nair, activist Shabnam Hashmi and Prof. Zoya Hasan.

CP Chandrasekhar is "professor" of economics at JNU. Hope he"s sacked once Modi sarkar comes in -for politicising academics.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 15 May 2014 07:36

Anantha wrote:
Muppalla wrote:I was busy all day today. Just getting to internet and several pages went away. Did NDTV finally gave an exit poll?
rNDTV gave 289 to NDA+

Thanks. I checked the site. They gave 235 to BJP. So no one has give less than 235. So that is the baseline of all exit polls now. So BJP is either at a striking distance of becoming a party that will be one after 30 years in India who will get government with any technical need for partnership.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 15 May 2014 07:37

Arjun wrote: CP Chandrasekhar is "professor" of economics at JNU. Hope he"s sacked once Modi sarkar comes in -for politicising academics.

It should be ruthless and make all these sec-libs invisible. No more PCness. POTA type stuff for all sec-libs.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 15 May 2014 07:38

Hari Seldon wrote:
ramana wrote:For timepass till the results come out, how about recounting those proceedings for those who werent there in flesh?
Well saar, in that meet, milindc demo-ed the work he was doing right down to the booth level. The insights that emerge once you have voters mapped down to street address and basic demography was astounding only.

The clear cut strat to target youth demographic seemed like a no-brainer back then even, with the data opening up like that...

swamyG, narayan Rao garu, RamaY, nkumar, yours truly were the other guys at the meet apart from milindc, of course.

Doston, ek meet aur banta hai... in a new India.

In my lay and simple mind, that analysis would result in Microtargeting in action. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microtargeting. Indian politics is changing in the way it is collecting data and analyzing them. Caste factors, religious factors, demographics ityadi are not going away anytime soon.

Everybody realized how Modi/Amit tuned their campaign for UP/Bihar. Good for BJP, nobody could do anything about it.

Hari garu, thanks for the wonderful hospitality. Last time I came 2 days after Modi made his first campaign visit to Hyderabad. Hopefully the next visit is when Modi is the PM.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 15 May 2014 07:44

Shamlee wrote:I don't want to have Mamta either. If NDA takes support from TMC, then it is bye bye to getting rid of illegal Bangla Deshis. I just might agree to Mayawati.

Atriji, any idea if MNS can get any seats in MH?

the only possibility for MNS is South Mumbai, NW mumbai, Thane, Kalyan.

out of these four, there are none that I am not almsot sure of. South Mumbai will return to side of light after retirement of jaywantiben mehta. That is the only seat where MNS has a fighting chance. But reports I get is that Savant is winning.

I am slightly worried about Kirtikar (10-15% chance of him losing), but then in that case the seat will go to anna kamat (gurudas of INC) and not Mahesh Manjarekar (MNS)

The fight became squarely between SS Vs MNS in Thane and Kalyan-Dombivali seats. This is where the voting was lowest (in 40s). NCP, INC not at all in picture - these two seats are marked with infighting of senas. So there is chance that one of these two might go to MNS (but I will give only 15%-20% probability to this event happening). Rest, no chance. In case of too much infighting, UPA wins by default as always. But this event is very improbable, given the modi wave.