Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

bhargava
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby bhargava » 12 May 2014 19:34

TimesNow pointing to the coming EVM magic in Rajasthan ?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby James B » 12 May 2014 19:34

TimesNow credibility destroyed totally.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Comer » 12 May 2014 19:35

Thanks hanumadu, muraliravi. I am switching between csds and Chanakya
EDIT : TimesNow is weird
Last edited by Comer on 12 May 2014 19:45, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ramana » 12 May 2014 19:39

viewtopic.php?p=1622253#p1622253

muraliravi wrote:
ramana wrote:muraliravi, Please add one more column, Average of the surveys, As central limit theorem shows we results get to converge. And then compare it to the link posted by RajeshA which also has that column.

Thanks,

ramana


Here you go sir,

Please note that I have used a 50% weight reduction factor for IBTL as I see them to be very biased towards BJP.

RamaY sir, your formula will make sense under normal circumstances, but I find some inherent biases in these surveys, lets skip that for now.

I have not included TG/Seemandhra simply because the alliance is fluid and I will put my analyst head and say reliable surveys give BJP a big zero in both states, TDP is not part of this table as these are just BJP numbers.

Image

Anyway, my prediction stays with the minimum, I dont expect them to go below 175 seats or above 190 seats. 175-190 will be their final tally.



just for comparison.

This was done in March just before the polls. Seems so long ago.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anindya » 12 May 2014 19:40

what is the total for NDA that TimesNow is coming up with?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby rvishwak » 12 May 2014 19:41

Anindya wrote:what is the total for NDA that TimesNow is coming up with?

249

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Dilbu » 12 May 2014 19:41

Firstpost ‏@firstpostin 30s
Times Now Exit Poll National Projection: NDA - 249, UPA-148

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby rvishwak » 12 May 2014 19:42

However, avoid TimesNow its getting weird on this channel

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby chaanakya » 12 May 2014 19:42

It gives 249 to NDA and 148 to UPA. Congis are being saved in a last ditch effort by Newstraders and Dienasty A$$licker Dorrknob from TimesNow.
Don't even watch.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Sanku » 12 May 2014 19:43

TimesNow is totally in la la land

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ramana » 12 May 2014 19:44

Guys chill. How do you expect Timesnow to start reporting accurately when all along they were Congress A team? Look at other reports also.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby amdavadi » 12 May 2014 19:45

check out India tv

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SandeepA » 12 May 2014 19:46

either timesnow is totally sold out or EVM magic is underway in Raj

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anindya » 12 May 2014 19:47

Even with NDA at 249 - NDA forms government by including independents + BJD/AIDMK or some small set of parties.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby vivek.rao » 12 May 2014 19:50

Sanku wrote:TimesNow is totally in la la land


I think TOI group needs to be investigated and destroyed. The way they LIE, create LIES against BJP, promote Priyanka, there has been a total case of sold out media to foreign interests. If this group is not destroyed, they will destroy India with their foreign banking

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ShyamSP » 12 May 2014 19:51

ramana wrote:Guys chill. How do you expect Timesnow to start reporting accurately when all along they were Congress A team? Look at other reports also.


They surveyed people exiting Congress building and so they are called Exit-polls.

I don't think they follow any basics of surveys.


Timesnow man: "what is your number madam?"
Madam: "180"
Timesnow man: "for 20 cr more, we can make it 200"
Madam: "go for it"

Arnab: "In an extensive and scientific survey done throughout India, ...."

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby hanumadu » 12 May 2014 19:52

Waiting for Chanakya's results for UP, Bihar, Seemandra and Telangana. Hasn't updated in a while.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby member_23679 » 12 May 2014 19:54

Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya

#TCExitPoll All India Tally (543 seats) #BJP 291 ± 14 Seats #Cong 57 ± 9 Seats #NDA 340 ±14 Seats #UPA 70 ±9 Seats Others 133 ±11 Seats

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SandeepA » 12 May 2014 19:55

rajiv wrote:Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya

#TCExitPoll All India Tally (543 seats) #BJP 291 ± 14 Seats #Cong 57 ± 9 Seats #NDA 340 ±14 Seats #UPA 70 ±9 Seats Others 133 ±11 Seats


unlikely..

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Dilbu » 12 May 2014 19:56

Saswati Sarkar ‏@sarkar_swati 20s
TCExitPoll giving an amazing 272+ to BJP alone. They were right on Delhi in 13

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby abhik » 12 May 2014 19:56

Who is doing the exit poll for time now?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby amdavadi » 12 May 2014 19:56

Chanakya giving 291 to BJP, NDA 340.................

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :twisted:

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby KLP Dubey » 12 May 2014 19:57

SandeepA wrote:either timesnow is totally sold out or EVM magic is underway in Raj


But the exit poll data would have little to do with EVM tampering. Most likely their data collection is flawed or they are cooking numbers (i.e. sold out to anti-NDA forces). I have stopped looking at TimesNow, since we know their prediction (NDA = 249) now.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby member_23679 » 12 May 2014 19:57

SandeepA wrote:
rajiv wrote:Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya

#TCExitPoll All India Tally (543 seats) #BJP 291 ± 14 Seats #Cong 57 ± 9 Seats #NDA 340 ±14 Seats #UPA 70 ±9 Seats Others 133 ±11 Seats


unlikely..



yeah, kind of feel that after seeing their latest tweet for UP.

Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya

#TCExitPoll Uttar Pradesh (80 Seats) #BJP+ 70 ± 7 Seats #BSP 3 ± 2 Seats #SP 4 ± 2 Seats #Congress+ 3 ± 1 Seats


NaMo will lose only :((

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ramana » 12 May 2014 19:57

rajiv wrote:Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya

#TCExitPoll All India Tally (543 seats) #BJP 291 ± 14 Seats #Cong 57 ± 9 Seats #NDA 340 ±14 Seats #UPA 70 ±9 Seats Others 133 ±11 Seats



Beats the BRF GJP by a mile.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 12 May 2014 19:58

Anindya wrote:Even with NDA at 249 - NDA forms government by including independents + BJD/AIDMK or some small set of parties.


+108. Even 249 is good enough. BJP is already in talks with DMK
Timesnow is the low life-low bar. Headlines on TOIlet is ADMK sweepng TN with BJP =0.To some one who does not follow much, it looks like BJP is out.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby amdavadi » 12 May 2014 19:58

Chanakya giving 70 to bjp in UP
Last edited by amdavadi on 12 May 2014 19:59, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Dilbu » 12 May 2014 19:58

What is there to sell out in an exit poll? It will not affect the results or further voting. Also it is only channel's reputation which is going to be on the line. For projecting a rosy image for 3 days will someone pay to get exit polls cooked?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby hanumadu » 12 May 2014 19:58

Holy mother of god. Seriously, 70 in UP.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Mihaylo » 12 May 2014 19:59

rajiv wrote:Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya

#TCExitPoll All India Tally (543 seats) #BJP 291 ± 14 Seats #Cong 57 ± 9 Seats #NDA 340 ±14 Seats #UPA 70 ±9 Seats Others 133 ±11 Seats


I hope this is right..but don't you guys think this estimate is a bit too skewed for the BJP/NDA.

-M

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby vivek.rao » 12 May 2014 19:59

http://www.gulte.com/news/27002/Fieldin ... -a-MISTAKE

Andhra Octopus Lagadapati Rajagopal hints possible defeat of YSR Congress party's honorary president YS Vijayamma in Visakha Lok Sabha constituency.

Speaking to a news channel, Lagadapati said: "During a flight journey, Brother Anil approached me to seek my opinion on the constituency Sharmila has to contest in 2014 Polls. He said to me that Jagan wishes to field her either from Malkajgiri or Vizag. I explained him both of these Lok Sabha constituencies were too risky as they fall in Urban area. I told him to prefer Anakapalli or Ongole or any other segment which falls in rural area."

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby chaanakya » 12 May 2014 20:00

In Lighter vein

New Delhi. In a joint meeting held by the representatives of all leading news channels last evening, it was unanimously decided to give at least 150 seats to AAP in every exit poll that will be telecast today after 6:30 pm.

The channels took this decision to avoid Aroon Purie like situation, where Kejriwal accused him selling his soul to Narendra Modi and called his opinion poll on Varanasi, farzi.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SwamyG » 12 May 2014 20:00

Dilbu wrote:Firstpost ‏@firstpostin 30s
Times Now Exit Poll National Projection: NDA - 249, UPA-148

Reasonable.?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Comer » 12 May 2014 20:01

Dilbu: True, there is no incentive to bluff on an exit poll. I think the different poll agencies have different mechanism to dampen the wave factor, for lack of a better term. Atleast there is a wave!

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Sanku » 12 May 2014 20:02

abhik wrote:Who is doing the exit poll for time now?


ORG-MARG

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 12 May 2014 20:02

Dilbu wrote:What is there to sell out in an exit poll? It will not affect the results or further voting. Also it is only channel's reputation which is going to be on the line. For projecting a rosy image for 3 days will someone pay to get exit polls cooked?

Dilbu bhai,
Do not under estimate the power of money. People can do strange things.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby fanne » 12 May 2014 20:03

The only reason to fudge an exit poll would be for EVM MAGIC!!

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SandeepA » 12 May 2014 20:03

SwamyG wrote:
Dilbu wrote:Firstpost ‏@firstpostin 30s
Times Now Exit Poll National Projection: NDA - 249, UPA-148

Reasonable.?


Timesnow will not report such numbers unless they are in on some magic in Rajastan etc. They will not risk credibility by reporting this now only to be proven wrong in a few days.
Dhoti shivering onleee..

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Dilbu » 12 May 2014 20:03

There is a congress sweep in Kerala. Ashamed. :evil:
I am moving my vote from that god forsaken place to Bangalore, Kerala. Enough is enough.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 12 May 2014 20:04

Oh well. Modi has ended up polarizing Exit Polls as well. Arnab circus at 249, Today's Chanakya at 340!


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