Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Victor
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Victor » 12 May 2014 20:33

muraliravi wrote:I will also caution against using timesnow numbers on Assam, impossible to imagine BJP getting 8 of the 14. Surely cong will do much better.

Chanakya giving BJP 8 also.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 12 May 2014 20:34

I have reviewed thru most of the polls, Times Now has the lowest number for BJP/NDA amonst recognized groups.
The "intellectuals" are rapidly throwing the towels. Please check Sagarika's tweets for eg, advising how Congis never allowed state leaders (read dynasty demise).
Other "intellectuals" have started advising what Modi should and should not do.
No matter how you slice the cake, it is Modi Sarkar on 16th.

Dilbu, please do a dhoti shiber

KLP Dubey
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby KLP Dubey » 12 May 2014 20:34

Latest NDA projections

TimesNow/ORG: 249
Chanakya: 340
AajTak: 272-283
IndiaTV/Cvoter: 289
5forty3.in: 300 (his Phase 9 projections not out yet, but a good guess)
ABP Nielsen: 281
CSDS/CNN-IBN: 270-282

Who else ?

muraliravi
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 12 May 2014 20:36

KLP Dubey wrote:Latest NDA projections

TimesNow/ORG: 249
Chanakya: 340
AajTak: 272-283
IndiaTV/Cvoter: 289
5forty3.in: 300 (his Phase 9 projections not out yet, but a good guess)
ABP Nielsen: 281
CSDS/CNN-IBN: 270-282

Who else ?


Timesnow is revising numbers as we speak. Someone must have told them the bare truth.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Shanmukh » 12 May 2014 20:38

muraliravi wrote:C'mon, do you want me to give you a list of blunders by timesnow/c-voter in the past. The list is endless.

In fact people can ask the other way round, how come only timesnow and no other channel has exclusive info on evm's in RJ.


+1 MuraliRavi-ji. Also, if anyone is going to rig polls, would it not be easier to do it in UP, or Bihar, or some state where it is harder to prove rigging? If Sampath is stupid enough to EVM magic Rajasthan results to the extent suggested by Times Now, then there will be a new decoration on the lamppost in front of 10 Janpath - the Dangling Sampath, it will be called.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Supratik » 12 May 2014 20:40

For the first time my dhoti is shivering seeing chanakya nos positively just imagining the possibilities for jingos. Is this even real? Or are they on steroids? Did BJP pay them money?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby hanumadu » 12 May 2014 20:41

muraliravi wrote:I will also caution against using timesnow numbers on Assam, impossible to imagine BJP getting 8 of the 14. Surely cong will do much better.


Chanakya gave the same number.

Edit: I see Victor already mentioned this.
Last edited by hanumadu on 12 May 2014 20:42, edited 1 time in total.

muraliravi
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 12 May 2014 20:42

Supratik wrote:For the first my dhoti is shivering seeing chanakya nos positively just imagining the possibilities for jingos. Is this even real? Or are they on steroids? Did BJP pay them money?


The issue with these polls is, everyone will have some logic for their numbers unless someone says BJP gets 40/42 in WB. So even chanakya's numbers are plausible if u take their lower end bets.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Lilo » 12 May 2014 20:42

sAAP is getting 5 (+/- 3) seats in Punjab per Aaj ki Chanakya :cry: :(( :(( !!

http://www.todayschanakya.com/loksabha_ ... tml#punjab

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 12 May 2014 20:43

hanumadu wrote:
muraliravi wrote:I will also caution against using timesnow numbers on Assam, impossible to imagine BJP getting 8 of the 14. Surely cong will do much better.


Chanakya gave the same number.


Thats true. Well, what can i say. I just added the lower end of Chanakya's numbers in each state (so if they say in MP 26 +/- 3, i saying 23) for NDA. That sums up to 275 without SA/TG for the NDA.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Shanmukh » 12 May 2014 20:44

hanumadu wrote:
muraliravi wrote:I will also caution against using timesnow numbers on Assam, impossible to imagine BJP getting 8 of the 14. Surely cong will do much better.


Chanakya gave the same number.


Theoretically, it is possible for the BJP to get the number suggested by Chanakya/Times Now. But I am not so confident. 3 seats are definitely gone (Muslim majority), BJP is not contesting in 1 (an ally is), and 1 is completely tribal and BJP has never done well in the seat. So, out of the 9 seats where BJP is really in contest, it is winning 8. Possible, but not very likely. I would give a more pessimistic estimate of 5-6 for BJP.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby chaanakya » 12 May 2014 20:44

KLP Dubey wrote:Latest NDA projections

TimesNow: 249
Chanakya: 340
AajTak: 272-283
IndiaTV/Cvoter: 289
5forty3.in: 300+ (his last Phase projections not out yet, but a good guess)
ABP Nielsen: 281

Who else ?


yeah

My Guess
NDA 300-320
UPA 80-90
Others: Rest with Amma largest, BJD runners' up and TMC second Runners'

The Biggest News

Clean Sweep in UP, BH,JH, MP, Ch, Rj Gj, MH, DL
Sweep: Kar, Pj, HR
Surprise: TN, WB AP(United)
Pleasant Surprise: NE.
Equivocal:HP, UK, J&K
Opposite: KL, OR

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Singha » 12 May 2014 20:45

Kerala it seems had handed all 20 seats to congis even after Emergency.

truly our highly educated and intellectual state thinks in a different way!

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Karan M » 12 May 2014 20:47

Education is no sign of wisdom!

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby hanumadu » 12 May 2014 20:48

Apologies if already posted. Chanakya's Karnataka numbers are another big surprise.


Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)

Seat 2014
(Forecast)
BJP
42% ± 3%

20 ± 3 (Plus / Minus 3)
Congress
35% ± 3%

6 ± 2 (Plus / Minus 2)
JDS
15% ± 3%

2 ± 1 (Plus / Minus 1)
Others
8% ± 2%

-

hanumadu
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby hanumadu » 12 May 2014 20:49

Only Chanakya's Telangana and Seemandhra remaining. Why is there an embargo by EC on those numbers?
Last edited by hanumadu on 12 May 2014 20:56, edited 1 time in total.

chaanakya
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby chaanakya » 12 May 2014 20:54

We will have plenty of time to analyse after 16th till the swearing in ceremony as to why this was a watershed election in India's Electoral History.
The Voting % has surpassed that of 1984. 10 crores additional voters. Higher turnout, Women , young professional poor , in short all strata of society in large number, pathetic UPA-2 , unemployment, inflation, rising prices, no economic growth and unimaginable corruption and NaMO mantra for development and growth. Very explosive mix for Tsunamo. The number predicted above 300 is possible only if one believes in Tsunamo.

We are witnessing making of Bharat's History. Truly Epochal.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Muppalla » 12 May 2014 20:55

The Chanakya can happen!!! can happen!! can happen!!. As I always say, BJP number grow if they get max in UP,Bihar, MH. The Tsunami may have really hit there. That is why Chanakya has given such numbers. They are serious pollsters. Let us see. Again 5forty3 was saying same but they are having dhoti shivering to put it out like that and reducing the numbers where there is even a slight negativity.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Supratik » 12 May 2014 20:56

I think Chanakya nos are incorrect. I can't bring myself to believe those nos.

Further, there is confusion in AS, WB, TN and AP. Others are broadly showing similar trends. Some concern about WB as ABP is showing higher votes for left but higher seats for TMC with BJP at 13%. The return of the left is a nightmare.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby chaanakya » 12 May 2014 20:57

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks

#Trivia .. Modi has never lost an election.. and has achieved his target of victory and goal in every election.. Any disputes?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby member_27987 » 12 May 2014 20:57

Singha wrote:Kerala it seems had handed all 20 seats to congis even after Emergency.

truly our highly educated and intellectual state thinks in a different way!


Singha-ji, from what I know, it is more of a reflection of the fact there is no entrenchment of the 3rd options in that site - not sure if it is because other parties cannot do it, or are not allowed to do it by the established crowd. As a front-line state in the war between Dharmic and A-dharmic forces, BJP/RSS should start making inroads starting yesterday.Not sure if NaMo/AmitShah will have a strategy for it later.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby hanumadu » 12 May 2014 20:58

The maximum variance of Chanakya with others is in UP, Bihar and Karnataka.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Murugan » 12 May 2014 20:59

Karan M wrote:Education is no sign of wisdom!


It Highly Literate, not educated.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby vivek.rao » 12 May 2014 21:00

Sara Desh Kare Pukaar
Abki bar, Modi Sarkar

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby suryag » 12 May 2014 21:00

guys there is considerable dhoti shiber after seeing times now numbers, if it is not evm magic then why lower the numbers? one reason could be to force unfavourable pre-result deals between nda and some aira/gaira

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Victor » 12 May 2014 21:01

muraliravi wrote:
Thats true. Well, what can i say. I just added the lower end of Chanakya's numbers in each state (so if they say in MP 26 +/- 3, i saying 23) for NDA. That sums up to 275 without SA/TG for the NDA.

Murali ji, we will know on the 16th but I suspect many people outside the state are not able to sense the seething anger in Assam against Congress from a very broad range of people cutting across ethnicity, language and class that I have interacted with.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby fanne » 12 May 2014 21:03

In time, Kerala will come. Lets get the low hanging fruits first - UP (where BJP ruled once), Bihar (where it can rule on its own now), MH (about time) AND THEN - Orrissa, Assam and Telengana (attack these states parties with extreme prejudice, including not extending special favor from Center) and THEN WB, AP and TN and then finally Kerela. Next election cycle the first round, second election cycle second, 3rd election cycle third group and finally Kerela.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 12 May 2014 21:04

MS Research which was running a crowd sourced Election Game is predicting BJP 228 (NDA 270), Cong 87 (UPA 110).

Image

Damn, can't seem to post the image. But here's the linkfrom FB

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby chaanakya » 12 May 2014 21:05

Dorrnob has cooked up the figure of 249 for NaMo and persistently asking the question "is NaMo there?" "who is going to support him" and how congress can get there with 149. What a sorry spectacle?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Bade » 12 May 2014 21:06

Singha wrote:Kerala it seems had handed all 20 seats to congis even after Emergency.

Not true...INC got only 11 seats out of 20 in that election.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby VikramS » 12 May 2014 21:07

Today's Chanakya ‏@TodaysChanakya 1m
#TCExitPoll Punjab (13 Seats) Vote Share
#AAP 32% ± 3%
#Congress+ 27% ± 3%
#BJP+ 29% ± 3%
Others 12% ± 3%

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 12 May 2014 21:08

Modi:I will be first since Rajiv Gandhi to form majority government since 1984.Seems he is sensing something big which we arent able to

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Sanjay » 12 May 2014 21:08

Didn't dorrnob's apes raise the NDA estimate to 254 ?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby fanne » 12 May 2014 21:08

Where Anatha ji, link, screen grab, audio clip, anything...?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby chaanakya » 12 May 2014 21:09

Anantha wrote:Modi:I will be first since Rajiv Gandhi to form majority government since 1984.Seems he is sensing something big which we arent able to

Who are those "We"?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby sum » 12 May 2014 21:09

^^ Saar, he said the same thing in Arnab's interview about getting the largest mandate after 1984

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ramana » 12 May 2014 21:10

fanne or some one please do a line graph. A horizantal line wih markings of 200 to 320. And mark off the various poll surveys.

Muraliravi then do a stat analysis of how far off these are from the average and by how many std deviations.

I hypothesize that TimesNow is an outlier and either methods are flawed or is agenda driven.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby chaanakya » 12 May 2014 21:11

fanne wrote:Where Anatha ji, link, screen grab, audio clip, anything...?

He told this to Dorrnob in TimesNow frankly Speaking programme. And face of DorrNob was ashen , drained of blood.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby rsingh » 12 May 2014 21:11

Mihaylo wrote:
KLP Dubey wrote:NDA projections

TimesNow: 249
Chanakya: 340
AajTak: 272-283
IndiaTV/Cvoter: 289
5forty3.in: 300+ (his last Phase projections not out yet, but a good guess)

Who else ?



Average for NDA is around 290

-M


Sorry but 290 is already copyrighted. Ju can select 289 or 291. :)

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby abhijitm » 12 May 2014 21:14

ndtv is not showing exit polls because it is congress mouthpiece?


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