Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Supratik
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Supratik » 12 May 2014 21:15

hanumadu wrote:The maximum variance of Chanakya with others is in UP, Bihar and Karnataka.


No they have unbelievable nos elsewhere as well.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 12 May 2014 21:16

chaanakya wrote:
fanne wrote:Where Anatha ji, link, screen grab, audio clip, anything...?

He told this to Dorrnob in TimesNow frankly Speaking programme. And face of DorrNob was ashen , drained of blood.


Modiji called Turddesai last night and told him (serious, no jokes)

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby gandharva » 12 May 2014 21:18

abhijitm wrote:ndtv is not showing exit polls because it is congress mouthpiece?


On Wednesday

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 12 May 2014 21:18

chaanakya wrote:
Anantha wrote:Modi:I will be first since Rajiv Gandhi to form majority government since 1984.Seems he is sensing something big which we arent able to

Who are those "We"?

rest of the crowd other than the two Chanakyas :mrgreen:

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby kmkraoind » 12 May 2014 21:20

abhijitm wrote:ndtv is not showing exit polls because it is congress mouthpiece?


Image

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Murugan » 12 May 2014 21:20

what were the reasons of 2004 and 2009 exit poll going wrong

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 12 May 2014 21:21

Another great news is as per exit polls, Khujli baba is losing deposit polling 8-9% of the votes polled coming in 3rd or 4th. Double celebration, actually triple because media made it look like he was a serious candidate for Varanasi and PM. AAk thoo

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Victor » 12 May 2014 21:24

Kejriwal: Baghdad Bob of Banaras.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Karan M » 12 May 2014 21:24

If kejriwal loses deposit, lungi dance.

Supratik
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Supratik » 12 May 2014 21:25

Some crazy BJP nos from Chanakya - TN 27%, AS 43%, UP 70 seats, WB 24%, KT 42%. PJ (AAP 32%).

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby abhijitm » 12 May 2014 21:26

kmkraoind wrote:Image

of course, of course. 1 extra day can increase predictability by 400%
OR
it is a trick to get maximum viewership. If they do it now they can just grab small share. Do it solo 2 days later and you get better TRP.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby M Joshi » 12 May 2014 21:26

Amol.D wrote:timesnow has gone bonkers... Rajasthan Congress 14, BJP 10 ... completly useless stuff


He gave almost similar projections in MP too. Timesnow office's computers' circuit boards must have malfunctioned & rolled out these nos. Arnab's high pitch opera show every evening is to be blamed for this circuitry malfunction.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 12 May 2014 21:28

Karan M wrote:If kejriwal loses deposit, lungi dance.

He will start stealing lungies then.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Atri » 12 May 2014 21:29

Chanakya was wrong abt gujarat. They gave bjp 140 in 2012 assembly.

I believe lowest of them. I believe doorknob. NDA - 250.

Anything more, I am happy. I am happy because the lowest of NDA has risen to 250. The lower bar is always most important. Of course I wish chanakya fructifies. I donttrust their UP and MH numbers. Too big.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SRoy » 12 May 2014 21:30

24% for WB looks way off the mark.
But given the fact people have been very cautious spelling out whom they voted for in face of TMC terror tactics and 15% being reported for the time being, I'll not be surprised if the official vote share for BJP stands around 20% on 16th May.
Whichever way you look, BJP has made a beachhead and expect NM and AS to dig in for a longer fight.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby nachiket » 12 May 2014 21:34

Chanakya figures are just too insane to be believed. Timesnow and Chanakya seem to be two ends of the spectrum. The reality should be somewhere in the middle, which is not bad. Even Timesnow's figures aren't bad. If NDA gets 250, they can easily get the remaining 12-13 seats to form the govt. The remarkable thing is nobody is predicting below 250! Now I'm waiting for NDTV to come out with their "highly anal-yzed" anal-e-cyst and predict less than 200 for NDA. :lol:
Last edited by nachiket on 12 May 2014 21:35, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 12 May 2014 21:35

https://twitter.com/BJPRajnathSngh/status/465874688141295617/photo/1

Could someone morph the pic to make the parrot guy with Dornob's face and tweet that would be great.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ramana » 12 May 2014 21:36

I think TimesNow also needs maths lessons. Their total does not add to 543.
A Mishra has a table of 3-4 surveys and TN is the odd one.
It projects lower to NDA but no corresponding increase for Congress or others.

if so Arnab Goswami is Goebells of Indian TV.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby panduranghari » 12 May 2014 21:38

What is the average of all exit polls?

For NDA
For UPA
For Others

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 12 May 2014 21:39

Do not forget. Todaychanakya gave 29 seats to sAAP during Delhi election exit polls

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby abhik » 12 May 2014 21:39

kmkraoind wrote:
abhijitm wrote:ndtv is not showing exit polls because it is congress mouthpiece?


Image

Sounds like BS. By 30-Apr 80% of the seats had already gone to polls i.e. they had the raw data for 80% of the seats for at least 10+ days. Similarly they have had data for 92% of the seat for 5 days. Today only 7.5% seats were in play. How much time would you possibly need to crunch all the data? But lets see what they put out on wednesday. BTW which agency are they using?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby krishnan » 12 May 2014 21:40

Anantha wrote:https://twitter.com/BJPRajnathSngh/status/465874688141295617/photo/1

Could someone morph the pic to make the parrot guy with Dornob's face and tweet that would be great.


Image

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 12 May 2014 21:46

All
Please tweet the picture, we need to deliver maximum insults to dorknob while the rod is hot

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby IndraD » 12 May 2014 21:46

he he my cousin from AAP legal cell is khamosh and posting how Cvoter was bought, all exit polls are bogus etc etc

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ramana » 12 May 2014 21:48

Wow. Now tweet it.

Also for the Chanakya guy what or where is he getting those 340 from? Isn't that a surprise? I thought BJP contested 425 seats and two or three were lost due to trickery.

Muraliravi, Please go thru his pdf and tell us. I will also do at same time.

http://www.todayschanakya.com/loksabha_result_2014.html

His total adds to 543!

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Supratik » 12 May 2014 21:49

Yes, we should throw away Timesnow and Chanakya as outliers. Clearly a INC majority in RJ after Modi wave in AE is bs. The believable no is somewhere around 280.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 12 May 2014 21:52

Another great news: Mullah Yadav losing Azamgad to BJP's ramakant Yadav

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 12 May 2014 21:53

IndraD wrote:he he my cousin from AAP legal cell is khamosh and posting how Cvoter was bought, all exit polls are bogus etc etc

Vishal Dadlani is doing the same thing. He still thinks they are winning

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Dasari » 12 May 2014 21:53

SandeepA wrote:
Dilbu wrote:Firstpost ‏@firstpostin 30s
Times Now Exit Poll National Projection: NDA - 249, UPA-148



Timesnow will not report such numbers unless they are in on some magic in Rajastan etc. They will not risk credibility by reporting this now only to be proven wrong in a few days.
Dhoti shivering onleee..


Same thing must be true for other polls too. They are all putting their reputation at stake, yet come up with huge variation. They may not be cooking numbers, but someone has better sample and better statistical tools. There was an exchange of some astrological views on one of these threads where a BJP+AIADMK coalition was predicted. I certainly hope it doesn't come to that. If it comes to a coalition, Modi is far better off in a pact with Mamata than Jayalalitha. Both are eccentric but no government can survive with Jayalalitha's support.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ramana » 12 May 2014 21:55

Today Chanakya's numbers are coming from the UP where he credits 70+/- 10% to NDA. A very big sweep and historic modern election without any hangama and despite CEC nataks.

TC's sample is 38984 people all over the country

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby sivab » 12 May 2014 21:55

Image

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Kati » 12 May 2014 21:56

Supratik wrote:Some crazy BJP nos from Chanakya - TN 27%, AS 43%, UP 70 seats, WB 24%, KT 42%. PJ (AAP 32%).


WB number is believable.
Yesterday everywhere people clamped their mouth about who they were voting for.
This is very unusual for chatty bongs when it comes to politics.
So people are predicting that Lotus will bloom unexpectedly in WB.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 12 May 2014 22:03

Murugan wrote:what were the reasons of 2004 and 2009 exit poll going wrong


2009 exit polls were not wrong, all major exit polls said UPA will get between 185 and 205 and NDA between 165 and 175.

CSDS said UPA 195-210, NDA 145-160. So almost all got the wind right, the intensity was off.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SwamyG » 12 May 2014 22:04

muraliravi wrote:
SandeepA wrote:Chanakya = Exit poll
TimesNow = Exit poll +_ EVM magic


No, timesnow is exit poll + arnab's nonsense. No evm magic can give BJP 10 in RJ and Cong 14. No way especially when BJP is in govt there. If evm's can be rigged, i doubt rigging will happen in cong favor in a bjp rules state. If evm's can be hacked remotely from CIA HQ, then why are we even discussing the elections.

That is the first thing that came to my head too. How is EVMagic going to happen in Rajasthan with Raje supporting Modi. Unless, there is a massive internal sabotage from BJP and some helping Congress - that kind of EVMagic can be ruled out in at least Rajasthan.

So if NDA is 250, can it still form a government?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby krishnan » 12 May 2014 22:05

Amma can help

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ramana » 12 May 2014 22:06

So what TN has done is take ~40 seats from NDA and put in Congress bucket.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Lilo » 12 May 2014 22:06

2009 exit polls pasted on a sAAP's timeline.
As MuraliRavi garu used to say these exit polls overrepresent the urban sample and rural sample is less represented.So in all exit polls subtract 50 seats from NDA and add 50 seats to the Borg hive.
Now having major dhothi shibers. Get ready for a UPA3 with Congi+Turds+sAAP rule onlee :(( :((

Image

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SwamyG » 12 May 2014 22:07

Anindya wrote:I would take thee 290 number - reduce it by 20% for EVM magic, voter list fraud etc - and then use that as a base. It'll come pretty close to the numbers that muraliravi had, I think.

Why not 2, 3, 5, 10, 15, 25, 30, 35, 40 %. Why reduce it by 20%?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby sum » 12 May 2014 22:08

From teetar:
Retweeted by Saswati Sarkar
The UnReal Times ‏@TheUnRealTimes 2h

Guys, stop emailing us. We are NOT behind Times Now ORG polls. It's too unreal even for us #MegaBullShitPoll

:rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Muppalla » 12 May 2014 22:08

muraliravi wrote:2009 exit polls were not wrong, all major exit polls said UPA will get between 185 and 205 and NDA between 165 and 175.

CSDS said UPA 195-210, NDA 145-160. So almost all got the wind right, the intensity was off.


The rising party will always get more than projected and losing party always loses more than projects. Check back few exit polls and that is the case 95% of the times. I beleive Chanakya has taken that factor literally into his model. I had this hunchy feeling that wave is going on in UP and Maha and I did not focus rest. But these are beasty stated and you sweep them then there is every possiblity that TodayChankyaa may be right.

The guys who can see the intesity of the wave and locations of the wave predicts good weather. I think he may be such a pollster.


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