Just a brief T-O (timeout) of sanity to check on something:
So, what was the yield?
About 20 to 25 KT.
OK, so this is presumably, Dr. KS' public-domain position. Which brings me to the question, no doubt answered many times by knowledgeable people, but missed by me:
1. Was all 20 to 25 KT from conventional explosives or from fission?
2. Or was some of it from fusion?
If KS insists on (1) then I have a huge problem with KS' statement. He is saying that he as test coordinator, allowed a test to go ahead, where 20-25KT of FISSION was used, in a device that was to test whether FUSION worked. In other words, that the total expected yield was huge and they were testing a 100KT/1MT -class weapon (why else would you need that much fission, all occurring with no help from fusion?)
This is the "Kalidasa Option". This means that if the test had succeeded per KS, KS would be in jail or already hanged for mass murder. Along with AK1, AK2, RC, ABV LKA etc. So I cannot buy this.
I gathered here from the experts that the concept of "fission tamper" or "fission blanket" is that
a) you set off a conventional IED-Mubarak based on Richard Reid Shoe-Bum, and
b) that sets off a fission bum
c) that sets off a fusion secondary
d) that produces massive amounts of gamma rays etc that bombards the blanket and
e) the fission blanket yields a lot of fission because of the fusion
This is the basis for the claim made here by someone knowledgeable that
Modern nuclear bombs have a yield that comes mostly from fission, with much of it coming from the blanket, which is set off by the radiation from the fusion secondary
3. There is no question of the whole 20-25KT coming from fission WITHOUT some fusion occurring.
4. If there was 20-25KT occurring, and MOST of it came from fission, then it is because SOME fusion occurred - ENOUGH TO SET OFF THE FISSION BLANKET.
************End Ceasefire. Back to Khetolai Certainty ***********************************************
Whatever the actual yield was, it was so close to being disastrous that no large increase in yield could have been achieved without causing a massive disaster.
Therefore, one has to conclude that SOME FUSION OCCURRED.
I say that if SOME fusion occurred, and the YIELD WAS LIMITED, then the test was a total success. The tough thing to demonstrate here is, in fact, Fission Blanket Yield with Minimum Use of Fusion Yield by careful dial-a-yield.
It may be true that 45KT was not achieved - as mentioned before, I have no means of verifying that the yield was 45, or 60, or 15 or 5 KT, or nothing. All I can say with certainty is that THE YIELD WAS AS MUCH AS THE TEST DESIGNERS COULD HAVE ACHIEVED WITHOUT DESTROYING THE VILLAGE AND KILLING THE SCHOOLCHILDREN AND PARENTS STANDING OUT IN THE STREET GAWKING AT THE SOURCE OF THE NOISE.
Now we go back and see what KS is saying:
He is saying that a 45KT WEAPON
has not been demonstrated.
No problem there. It wasn't an assembled weapon just fired into the hole. I have no idea whether the assembled weapon will work, unless someone picks, say, 100 samples from inventory at random with no advance notice, sticks them on missiles, and sends them accelerating at 10 Gs into space, and they re-enter, survive 20G re-entry loads and 4000K temperatures, and at least 95 of them explode at the correct 2324.357 meters pressure altitude at the correct range, and generate the right yield. Nothing else constitutes a "credible weapon". As opposed to credible deterrent.
We are back to Day One of the Santanamasha, and we see that KS is simply maintaining that there can be no CTBT signing unless/until WEAPON DEMOS are conducted. IOW, NEVER.
No disagreement there. Long may be be a pain in the side of the "SignCTBT NOW! crowd.