Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

JE Menon
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby JE Menon » 09 Jan 2004 16:23

Nice to see the "Sword of Islam" (Seif ul Islam) being twisted up A.Q Khan ever so gently...

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby jrjrao » 09 Jan 2004 18:05

The Economist
January 10, 2004 U.S. Edition
HEADLINE: Rogues step in
IS PAKISTAN'S government in proper control of its nuclear establishment or not? President Pervez Musharraf has repeatedly promised that Pakistan, though outside the treaty banning proliferation of nuclear weapons, will not pass on its bomb-making expertise to others. This week, allegations by Bush administration officials and others that Pakistan is the likely source of the uranium-enrichment technology that Libya admitted last month was part of its clandestine effort to build a bomb have been furiously denied by Pakistani spokesmen. Yet the denials are not as confident as they once were: the new line is that such transfers, if they have taken place, must be the work of a few individuals motivated by "ambition or greed".

Putting the blame on rogue scientists rather than Pakistan as a rogue proliferator hardly removes the doubts about the security of the country's nuclear-weapons programme. The pattern of evidence comes as no surprise to those who track the clandestine trade in weapons technology and materials. In 2002 South Korean intelligence pointed to Pakistan as the source of centrifuge technology for North Korea's production of highly-enriched uranium, which like plutonium can form the fissile core of a bomb. Last October Iran gave the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) the names of individuals and companies that had assisted its hitherto secret uranium-enrichment programme. Some trails, it seems, lead back to Pakistan (but others to Russia, China and companies in Europe).

Suspicion has long fallen on Pakistan's own nuclear-weapons scientists. Several, including Abdul Qadeer Khan, the former head of the laboratory that bears his name and that spearheaded development of Pakistan's nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable missiles, have reportedly been "debriefed" in recent weeks as part of the Iran investigation.

Mr Khan is a national hero, as the father of Pakistan's "Islamic bomb". He was convicted in absentia in the Netherlands, then later acquitted on a technicality, for stealing the centrifuge designs on which Pakistan's uranium-enrichment programme was based from a company where he worked in the mid-1970s. He has long denied any involvement in nuclear trafficking, official or otherwise. Though General Musharraf removed him from his eponymous laboratory in March 2001, because of American concern about his wider nuclear activities, he remains an adviser to Pakistan's prime minister.

Western proliferation-watchers believe Mr Khan initiated talks with North Korea as early as 1992, on the first of many visits, in order to get his hands on some of North Korea's Nodong missiles, whose range extends to 1,500km (930 miles). Although Pakistan denies it, its Ghauri missile, flight-tested in 1998, is reckoned to be a Nodong knock-off. The deal is thought to have been sealed the following year during a secret visit by Pakistan's prime minister of the day, Benazir Bhutto, whose father had launched Pakistan's secret bid for a bomb in the 1970s. Payment appears to have been in kind: North Korea received its first uranium-enrichment help by 1997. There have been unconfirmed reports that it has also received help in warhead design (Pakistan's warheads fit Nodong-type missiles like a glove).

For its part, Iran has admitted that it first got help for its uranium-enrichment programme in 1987, before Iran and Pakistan found themselves backing opposing sides in the long years of fighting in Afghanistan. The centrifuges it eventually showed to IAEA inspectors last year resemble Pakistani designs. Both Iran and North Korea therefore got uranium help before General Musharraf became first army chief in 1998 (the army in Pakistan has close control of nuclear-weapons development) and then president in a coup the next year. A Khan lab brochure purportedly offering dual-use nuclear equipment for sale has been in circulation for over a year but is dismissed by Pakistan as a forgery.

But what to make of the Libyan connection? And are more surprises looming?

Libya's uranium dabblings had accelerated in the past two years. Like Iran's they have been partly routed through Dubai, where collaborators at Mr Khan's old laboratory have long been suspected of operating a front company. Iraq, too, said middlemen there offered it nuclear expertise in 1990. Might other countries, such as Saudi Arabia, which like Libya has helped finance Pakistan's nuclear programme for years, Egypt, Syria or Algeria have shown an interest too?

Getting to the bottom of the Pakistan connection may not be easy. General Musharraf is now America's ally in the global war on terrorism. So far, America has taken him at his word that his government is not now engaged in proliferation. Easier, it seems, to blame the scientists.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby jrjrao » 09 Jan 2004 18:47

Following the nuclear trail

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0109/p11s02-cods.html
History may record that the early 21st century witnessed the breakdown of the three-decade-long effort to halt the spread of nuclear weapons. And, according to a comprehensive report in The New York Times, much of the responsibility for that will go to the father of the Pakistani bomb, Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan.

... new menace arose when Pakistan went into the export business, undeterred by the US, which relied on Pakistani help against the Russians in Afghanistan, and later against the Al Qaeda terrorists.

According to the Times, the A.Q. Khan Research Laboratories have been peddling nuclear know-how and components to rogue states - North Korea, Iran, and Libya. An official-looking brochure selling nuclear hardware bears the name of the Pakistani government and a photo of Dr. Khan. That Strangelovian character stands at the center of an international network of aspiring proliferaters.

Pakistan's instability heightens the danger of nuclear proliferation. And the known willingness of Pakistan's chief nuclear scientist to share the bomb with rogue regimes intensifies the danger.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Umrao » 09 Jan 2004 19:11

I chuckle at the thought of South Asian experts advising SD/GOTUS and certifying that

"Pakistan is a rational and responsible nuclear power"

:D
:rotfl:

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Umrao » 09 Jan 2004 19:18

ramana garu>> recall that after the chagai tests CIA confirmed that trace of Pu released by TSP tests had the signature of Chinese origin.

Somehow with SDs intervention the report was pulled out of circulation, The New Scientist also reported the same.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2004 22:39

Question why did Libya and Iran accede to the 1997 protocol of the NPT to which they are signatories?

And from there flows the TSP proliferation revelations. Yes there were US and UK negotiators etc persuading these two former axis of evil triumvirate but who else was involved.

Yes Umrao jaan. We now have confirmation of the Pu and the fact that weapon was to fit the gaur(i)/NoDong. Were there any NKoreans invited to watch the test on May 30th? Or atleast of revelry in Pyonyang?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Rangudu » 09 Jan 2004 22:40

Originally posted by John Umrao:
ramana garu>> recall that after the chagai tests CIA confirmed that trace of Pu released by TSP tests had the signature of Chinese origin.

Somehow with SDs intervention the report was pulled out of circulation, The New Scientist also reported the same.
Where was the Pu/Chinese report published in?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Vivek K » 09 Jan 2004 22:47

So then is it postulated that TSP's nukes are chinese? Was TSP unable to weaponise from the Uranium route?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2004 22:52

Bingo. Thats the BRF conclusion. Very crucial matter is the press conference of Khol and the Japanese PM at the G-8 summit on May 16th 1998 and the subsequent retraction. Try to google and find the text could be the clincher.

So all this TSP prolif talk is about spread of radiological material. Also explains why Libya and Iran gave up and pointed fingers at TSP.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Umrao » 09 Jan 2004 23:00

R guru>> Here it is one source

http://www.stratmag.com/issueAug-15/page06.htm
According to a report leaked out of the Los Alamos Nuclear Laboratory, in the autumn of 1998, the air samples acquired over Chagai by US intelligence agencies, contained traces of plutonium. Pakistan, around the period of the tests, had not had time to develop a warhead from the minimal quantities of plutonium generated by the research reactor at PINSTECH.<h3> Therefore, there is evidence that the devices tested were either plutonium supplied by non-Pakistani sources, or the device itself was not a Pakistani warhead but that of another nuclear weapons state which needed to validate a modernized warhead, given the moratorium on nuclear testing </h3>
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2003/7/2/132757.shtml
Pakistan Looms as Nuclear Menace
Friday, July 04 2003 @ 04:36 PM CDT
Ahmar Mustikhan
Pakistan may become the world's nuclear pariah state, arming volatile Islamic nations such as Saudi Arabia with nuclear technology transfers, and continuing its support of Islamic militancy – if the U.S. fails to use its economic leverage over Pakistan's military strongman Gen. Pervez Musharraf. This is the warning of Selig S. Harrison, a prominent U.S. Asia expert and the Asia director of the Center for International Policy, in an exclusive interview with NewsMax. He said it was now common knowledge that Gen. Musharraf helped North Korea with uranium enrichment technology transfers in return for missiles. "The CIA gathered incontrovertible proof that U.S.-supplied C-130 transport planes were used to ship six Nodong missiles from North Korea to the AQ Khan research laboratories in March." Harrison, who is author of “Korean Endgame,” told NewsMax the missile transfer led to U.S. trade sanctions against the Khan Laboratories and the North Korean Changgwong Corporation.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Umrao » 09 Jan 2004 23:10

ramana garu>>

Then Jai bolo

N guru, Ramana garu, R guru, j Guru and all the stalwarts ki, who have been saying that The Pakistani emperor is indeed Nuke Nood, even the see thru satin supplied by PRC, winked by uncle followed to the dot by poodle cant cover the vital statistics (Of Gola) with out the (Pu) Balls.
:rotfl:
(aab bahoot maza agaya hai...

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2004 23:23

Umrao jaan and all others. No need to be hard on China for they were the insturment (nimmitta matram) for Shakti or else it was forever Trishanku swarga or in dehati Na ghar ka na ghat ka for India. So no hard feelings.While watching the tamasha try to focus on the other triad- India, China and the US in the other thread.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Rangudu » 10 Jan 2004 01:01

Originally posted by ramana:
Very crucial matter is the press conference of Khol and the Japanese PM at the G-8 summit on May 16th 1998 and the subsequent retraction.
Who is Khol?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Umrao » 10 Jan 2004 01:12

R guru> owner of the Dept Store Kohl's :)

Chancellor of Germany at the G8 summit.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Rangudu » 10 Jan 2004 01:40

Oh Helmut Kohl?

This reminds me of a joke.

What does the nerdy Hyderabadi chemist tell his beewi on first night?

Khol-be :D <font size=0.5>There used to be a famous chemist called Kolbe, for the tubelights here</font>

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Rangudu » 10 Jan 2004 01:57

Ramana,

Can you be more specific as to what was said or not said in the Kohl press conference on May 16 1998?

Thanks

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Umrao » 10 Jan 2004 02:19

Originally posted by Rangudu:
Oh Helmut Kohl?

This reminds me of a joke.

What does the nerdy Hyderabadi chemist tell his beewi on first night?

Khol-be :D <font size=0.5>There used to be a famous chemist called Kolbe, for the tubelights here</font>
You mean like Nicholos Nicklebe :D

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Prateek » 10 Jan 2004 02:41

Hope this helps ...

Archives from previous G8 summits

Birmingham summit - 1998

Archives from previous G8 summits : Birmingham summit - 1998

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Prateek » 10 Jan 2004 02:42

THE BIRMINGHAM SUMMIT: FINAL COMMUNIQUE
15-17 May 1998

- Sunday 17 May 1998

Introduction

http://g8usa.gov/24712.htm

http://g8usa.gov/c10490.htm

G8 Summit Press Conference (Washington, DC May 5, 1998)
Statement By Joost Hiltermann Of Human Rights Watch
http://www.hrw.org/press98/may/g-8-pr.htm

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby ramana » 10 Jan 2004 02:50

OK Kohl and the Japanese PM were together at the podium in the G-8 summit and announced on May 16, 1998 that TSP had tested.
Soon after there was a denial by TSP and the matter was retracted. Soon after there were a flurry of flights between I'good and beijing. Eventually on May2 8th the Chagai tests were conducted and on May 30th another was conducted at the Ras Khoh range.

My point is that both Germany & Japan the other 'axis' powers of WWII, could not be making such an important statement unless they had some serious confirmation. Also on May 28th the Paks announced they had conducted five tests. Wallace in his paper shows three peaks for the seismograph. So my conjecture is that two were on May16th which fizzled and the others on May 28th and later were from outside sources to give total of five. Nawaz Sharif in his speech was very clear on hisab chuka diye phrase. IOW TSP conducted as many tests as India in May '98. "Experts" thought he was saying tit-for-tat tests. He probably was tallying the number of tests.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Rangudu » 10 Jan 2004 02:51

So do we have any confirmation of this Kohl/Japanese PM statement?

Thanks Ramana

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Johann » 10 Jan 2004 03:25

Sharif: Pakistan can test nuclear device within hours of decision

Deutsche Presse-Agentur
May 17, 1998, Sunday
08:42 Central European Time

(DPA, Islamabad) Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said Sunday that Pakistan has the ability to test its nuclear capability within 12 to 24 hours of a decision to do so, the official radio reported.

Sharif told people attending his weekly open house in Lahore that Pakistan has not closed the option for test but will not make a hasty decision in this regard, the radio said.

Whatever the decision, it would be in the larger interest of the country, the premier said.

Sharif said Pakistan has the right to acquire nuclear technology for its defence and integrity and will not compromise on its national interests, the premier said.

Foreign Minister Gohar Ayub Khan, in an interview published Sunday, said Pakistan nuclear tests in response to Indian ones were "very close to certain".

Khan said the Pakistani response to this week's series of nuclear tests by rival India was "just a matter of timing" for the government.

Khan made the remarks on Saturday after a U.S. delegation sent by President Bill Clinton left Islamabad, apparently unsuccessful in its mission to try to persuade the Moslem country not to match the Indian explosions.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had said before holding talks with the U.S. delegation that Pakistan was "in no haste" to respond to the Indian tests.

Sharif urged in a letter to the leaders of the G-8 countries meeting in Birminghan, England, to recognize and be receptive to Pakistan's security concerns arising from nuclear-armed India.

But Islamabad was dismayed that the G-8 confined itself to expressing "international concern and opposition" without imposing any sanctions against India.

"Strangely, the G-8 statement makes absolutely no reference to the grave threat emanating from the Indian nuclear weapons to the security of the region and peace and stability in the world.

"In particular it takes no account of the threat posed to Pakistan's security by her adventurous neighbour," a Foreign Ministry statement said.

Pakistani foreign secretary, Shamshad Ahmad, is scheduled to leave Sunday for China for consultations. A Japanese special envoy arrives in Islamabad simultaneously to renew Tokyo's advice of restraint and the threat of sanctions if the advice was ignored.

FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS PAKISTAN WILL TEST NUCLEAR DEVICE

By Kathy Gannon

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, May 17 AP - Pakistan's stand on testing a nuclear device hardened today with Foreign Minister Gohar Ayub saying his government has decided to test a device it's just a
question of when.

"It's a matter of when, not if, Pakistan will test ... the decision has already been taken by cabinet," Ayub told The Associated Press in a telephone interview from his rural home in northwestern Pakistan.

"It will now be a political decision of when to test," he said.

"I cannot disclose when to you ... it's not going to be in a public stadium, where we will have a big bang for all to see."

Since India's detonation last week of five nuclear devices, Pakistan has been increasingly critical of the industrialised world's reaction and Ayub's statement today is the strongest signal yet that Pakistan is ready to match India in kind.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif told reporters outside his home in the Punjab provincial capital of Lahore today that Pakistan needs only 12 hours preparation time to explode a nuclear device.

He went on to warn that "we will be forced to test the deterrent and no one can stop us from doing so," if the international community's response to India is weak.

The leaders of the world's industrialised nations were divided over sanctions against India today as they wound up their summit meeting in Birmingham.

France, Russia and Britain refused to sign on to sanctions.

Ayub called the sanctions thus far "irrelevant" and said the muted response from the industrialised world only reinforced Pakistan's decision to test.

Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary Shamshad Ahmed left today for China Pakistan's long-time ally and the country Washington says has helped develop Pakistan's nuclear program.

China has been accused of giving Pakistan an already-tested nuclear device and setting the country on the road to nuclear weapons development.

Last year the US administration said China gave Pakistan ring magnets, a component in nuclear weapons. China also is accused of sending Pakistan M-11 missiles, capable of delivering nuclear warheads.

China has denied both charges.

While in China, Ahmed will meet Chinese officials "for consultations on recent developments in the region."

Sharif has been under mounting pressure from across the political spectrum at home to test a nuclear device in response to India's testing on Monday and again Wednesday of five nuclear devices.

But the international community continues to urge restraint.

A delegation led by US deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott left Pakistan yesterday saying they had received assurances from Pakistan's leadership that no "final or irrevocable" decision on testing had been made.

Ayub told The AP that was no longer true.

The cabinet, he said, has decided to test a nuclear device.

Privately Pakistani officials said the Americans offered a possible end to sanctions which Washington imposed on Pakistan in 1990, believing it possessed a nuclear bomb.

But Ayub said "we have taken in view everything and discussed what it will cost us and we will go ahead".

US spy satellites have reportedly picked up evidence that Pakistan is preparing a test site at Chagai in southwestern Baluchistan province, barely 50 kilometres from the border with Iran.

According to a story today in Pakistan's largest Urdu-language newspaper, The Jang, Pakistan has finished its preparations for a nuclear test and "can test within three hours".

The newspaper, which did not identify its sources, said the military has selected three possible sites in the area for a test.

It claimed as well that there were military helicopters in the area of Rosko in the Chagai district of southwestern Baluchistan province a sparsely populated desert region.

The newspaper said residents have been told to stay clear of the area.

"The nuclear floodgates have been thrown wide open," said Munir Ahmed, former head of Pakistan's Atomic Energy Commission.

Ahmed warned that there are several states "waiting in the wings" to test.

A muted response from the international community, he warned will result in more tests elsewhere.

G8 leaders say Pakistan staged nuclear test, Pakistan denies

Agence France Presse
May 17, 1998 11:36 GMT

(AFP, Birmingham) Pakistan has carried out a nuclear test, German Chancellor Helmut Kohl and Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto said here Sunday, quoting information they had received.

Pakistan immediately denied the report, with a spokesman for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Islamabad saying no test had been conducted.

Foreign Minister Gohar Ayub Khan had said earlier that Pakistan would carry out a test but no date had been decided.

"We are in possession within the last two hours of reliable information according to which Pakistan has also gone ahead with a nuclear test," Kohl told a news conference at the end of the three-day G8 summit here.

Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto told his briefing "we have unconfirmed information that Pakistan conducted a nuclear test."

"If it is true we could never forgive Pakistan's action," he added.

India set off five nuclear tests last week, sparking world condemnation and putting pressure on Pakistan.

"You have to understand that what Pakistan is doing is a response to what India has done," Kohl said.

He urged both India and Pakistan to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) to "stop this (arms) race."

British Prime Minister Tony Blair said meanwhile that India is ready to begin immediate talks on signing the CTBT.

Blair said the assurance was given by Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee when he spoke to him by telephone Friday evening from the G8 summit here.

"He assured me that he would commence discussions immediately," on India joining the CTBT, Blair told a press conference.

[Hashimoto was quite a bit more cautious than Kohl.]

Chain reaction after Kohl's Birmingham bombshell

Deutsche Presse-Agentur
May 17, 1998, Sunday,
13:23 Central European Time

(DPA, Birmingham) German Chancellor Helmut Kohl set off a chain reaction at the close of the G8 summit in Birmingham Sunday after telling journalists that Pakistan had apparently just conducted a nuclear test.

Journalists were galvanised as the German leader announced that "sources that can be taken seriously" had revealed to him that "as far as can be ascertained" the Pakistan blast took place two hours earlier in response to arch-rival India's controversial nuclear tests last week.

Kohl's remarks at one of the parallel news conferences being held by participating heads of state left commentators dumbfounded and fellow world leaders momentarily in the dark.

French Prime Minister Jacques Chirac felt unable to comment on the startling development while host and British premier Tony Blair said he didn't know anything about it at all. Even U.S. President Bill Clinton was at a loss to confirm or deny Kohl's bombshell.

Kohl's "sources that can be taken seriously" were not elaborated upon and by the time Pakistan had issued a swift official denial the German Chancellor was already on his way home.

Pundits pondered Sunday whether Kohl had perhaps misread morning reports from Pakistan that it was capable of staging a nuclear test within 12 to 24 hours of the order to do so being given.

Report: Kohl's Pakistan bomb statement based on unchecked data

Deutsche Presse-Agentur
May 18, 1998, Monday, BC Cycle
13:00 Central European Time

(DPA, Tel Aviv)German chancellor Helmut Kohl was relying on unchecked intelligence material gathered by German secret services when he mistakenly announced at the G-8 meeting in Birmingham Sunday that Pakistan had tested its own nuclear bomb, the Yediot Aharonot daily reported Monday.

The paper said that Kohl had ordered the intelligence agencies to pass him every snippet of information on the issue, and was given data regarding the supposed test which had not even undergone an initial check, the paper said. According to Yediot, Kohl had been unaware that he was receiving raw intelligence material.

[Yediot is Israel's most popular Hebrew daily newspaper, and is a faourite place for Israeli government figures to state the views without being identified.]

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Rangudu » 10 Jan 2004 03:27

Thanks Johann!

What's your take on this issue?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Umrao » 10 Jan 2004 03:30

The above report should be read in conjunction with the next report which stated that high officials from TSP Army and KRL landed in Bejing ( to get the asli maal) to proceed with the now known tests of May 28th.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Rangudu » 10 Jan 2004 03:34

Originally posted by John Umrao:
The above report should be read in conjunction with the next report which stated that high officials from TSP Army and KRL landed in Bejing ( to get the asli maal) to proceed with the now known tests of May 28th.
Huh.

What report is this?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Johann » 10 Jan 2004 03:47

Rangudu,

I think there's no doubt that the Pakistani leadership made its decision to test on the morning of May 17th, and that part of the decision was to send off Shamshad Ahmad sent to Beijing the next day.

The BND spent a considerable effort to widen and strengthen its intelligence gathering and analysis abilities regarding WMDs since the late 1980s, and they have a considerable SIGINT capability.

The BND probably did pick up something, but I do not know what it was or how they came about it. It is also likely that the BND warned Kohl beforehand that a Pakistani test was imminent, which would explain Kohl's greater degree of certainty when making the announcement.

I'd rather not speculate on whether Kohl was right or not.

But I do think that if the Russians had received similar intelligence regarding an attempted Pakistani test they would have 'gone public' with it, either officially or unofficially. The same would be true of the Israelis.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby ramana » 10 Jan 2004 03:50

Was AQK in Germany before his work at URENCO?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Umrao » 10 Jan 2004 03:57

R>> read this for starters
http://www.rediff.com/news/1998/may/22bomb1.htm

***
Chinese media assails India for 'hegemonistic' aspirations
China's official media is churning out fierce attacks on India for conducting last week's nuclear tests, but has kept its silence on a visit by Pakistani officials who came reportedly to seek Beijing's support against New Delhi.

In a full-page spread, the Liberation Army Daily -- a mouthpiece of China's People's Liberation Army -- called for ''vigilance about India's military development'' and slammed New Delhi for conducting nuclear tests that revealed its ''hegemonic ambitions''.

''Clearly, India wants to become a regional power,'' the paper said in an editorial. ''But as there can't be even talk of any economic superiority, it can only wantonly engage in military ventures and show off its military strength.''

Media reports have also criticised India for actions ranging from the two countries's conflict in 1962 to its sheltering of the Dalai Lama.

But in contrast to the chorus of attacks against India, Chinese media has kept silent on the visit by a high-level Pakistani delegation that left on Tuesday after talks with Beijing officials.

Analysts believe Pakistan is asking China -- with whom it enjoys close military ties -- for assurance in case of an Indian attack against the country. This assurance could be a key factor in getting Islamabad from carrying out its own tests, though it has said testing is just a matter of time.

In this context, China has acquired the role of a key player in how rising tensions in South Asia over India's tests play out.

China is not only a long-time friend of Pakistan that shares with Islamabad a mistrust of India, but foreign defence observers also suspect that Beijing might have transferred military technology to Pakistan. China and Pakistan deny the charge.

<h3>The timing of the visit by Pakistani military officials and diplomats, on the week after India's tests, is by itself significant. </h3>

But eager to build on its improved international standing, the Chinese seemed careful not to project a position that could be outrightly interpreted as further fanning tensions in South Asia.

Diplomats in Beijing believe China might have tried to dissuade Islamabad from responding to Indian tests by detonating its own nuclear device. Beijing officials did not give, at least in public, the security guarantee against India that diplomats had said Islamabad wanted during their visit.

The Chinese foreign ministry declined to give details of the three-day talks with officials led by Pakistani Foreign Secretary Shamshad Ahmed. Said a foreign ministry statement: ''During the visit, both sides broadly exchanged views on international issues and relevant regional security issues.''


''This is part of normal regular consultation by the foreign ministries of China and Pakistan,'' it added.

Yet, China's official media berated India more than Pakistan. A penned commentary in English-language newspaper China Daily on Wednesday defended Pakistan for not signing the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty -- ''because India has not done so''.

''Pakistan's policy of non-proliferation hinged upon India following the same policy,'' wrote Yan Xuetong, a research fellow with the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.

On Tuesday, a commentary in the People's Daily accused the government of Prime Minister A B Vajpayee of trying to shift the blame for its nuclear tests to another country.

''Before and after the tests, Indian leaders kept assaulting China verbally, attempting to create an excuse for their country's nuclear tests,'' said the paper, a flagship of the Communist Party.

The commentary also took issue with Vajpayee's remarks that China invaded India in 1962 and occupied about 90,000 sq km of Chinese territory in a border row. ''Driven beyond forbearance, the Chinese army staged a counter-attack in self-defence,'' the article said.

It went on to emphasise that it was China that actively initiated a ''ceasefire and military withdrawal'' and suggested ''ending confrontation and reopening talks to settle the border issue peacefully''.

TheLiberation Army Daily, which has devoted the lengthiest coverage to attacks of India's ''hegemonic ambitions'', added that India "sees itself as an essential successor of the British empire and dreams of becoming a regional and world power''.

''However, it has been demonstrated by history that any country which seeks hegemony -- either global or regional -- will not have its dream realised,'' the paper added.

Local media also attacked India for attempts to prevent China's ''peaceful liberation of Tibet'' in the 1950s and for allowing the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, to conduct ''splittist activities'' from its territory.

And after India conducted its nuclear tests, ''the clique of the Dalai Lama' showed its support for India and this revealed the 'sinister relations' between them,'' the newspaper added.

Rhetoric aside, the point of much of the commentary in the official media seemed to be that China is acting not only as an oasis of economic stability in a fragile region, but also as Asia's most vigilant peace guard.

Umrao
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Umrao » 10 Jan 2004 04:02

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shamshad Ahmed met with Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan in Beijing on 18-20 May 1998. According to Foreign Minister Ahmed: "The special focus of our consultations was the current regional situation that has arisen as a result of India' irresponsible actions in carrying out five nuclear tests. I shared with our Chinese friends our preoccupation, our perception and assessment of the situation, which poses a great threat no only to regional peace and stability but also to the overall peace and stability of the world." ["Pakistani Envoy Sees Eye to Eye with China," Reuters, 19 May 1998.] It was reported that the Pakistani delegation had hoped to obtain a guarantee of nuclear protection from China should India attack, and that this would help persuade Pakistan to refrain from conducting its own nuclear tests. However, Chinese officials downplayed the meeting, calling it a "routine consultation between our two foreign ministries." ["Chinese Delegation Seems to Deny Pakistan a Nuclear Umbrella," New York Times, 21 May 1998.] At the Chinese Foreign Ministry's regular briefing on 19 May 1998, questions about whether China encouraged Pakistan to refrain from conducting its own nuclear tests went unanswered, as did questions regarding China's defending Pakistan from a nuclear attack and how China would react to nuclear tests by Pakistan. Instead, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao condemned India for undermining efforts to ban nuclear testing. "The overriding issue for the international community is to concentrate on adopting a decisive and clear-cut position against India to prompt it to give up its nuclear program. Only in this way can the security environment of Pakistan and other South Asian nations be improved," he said. [Roger Wilkinson, "China/Pakistan," Voice of America, 19 May 1998.]

Upon his return from Beijing, Foreign Minister Ahmed announced that he had been assured that China would not impose economic sanctions should Pakistan conduct a nuclear test. ["Chinese Delegation Seems to Deny Pakistan a Nuclear Umbrella," New York Times, 21 May 1998.] When asked by reporters whether China had also asked Pakistan not to go nuclear, Ahmed said: "China has not asked us to do anything which is not in our national interest." ["Pakistan, China Slate India's Reckless Action," Dawn (Islamabad), 21 May 1998.]

However, the Associated Press reported that at President Clinton's urging, Chinese leader Jiang Zemin did send a letter to the Pakistani government before the nuclear tests urging restraint. The Chinese Foreign Ministry declined comment on the letter. ["China Urged Pakistani Restraint," Associated Press, 29 May 1998.]

On 28 May 1998, Chinese spokesman Zhu Bangzao, just hours before Pakistan's tests, was again asked if Beijing supported or opposed a nuclear test by Pakistan. He made it clear that China believed India was responsible for the nuclear crisis in South Asia. ''The current situation in South Asia was created solely by India. India, in disregard of strong international opposition, brazenly conducted nuclear tests and threatened its neighbours." He restated that "the most pressing matter for the international community now is to act together to immediately demand that India abandon its plan to develop nuclear weapons and change its mistaken stance. Only in this way can the security concerns of this region be fundamentally resolved." ["China Blames India for Rising Tensions," Inside China Today, 28 May 1998; "China: India Responsible for Regional Tension," Lateline News, 28 May 1998.]

After Pakistan conducted its own tests and detonated five underground nuclear devices, Chinese reaction was swift. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao:

"China expresses its deep regret over Pakistan's nuclear test today. China has always advocated the complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons and is opposed to any form of nuclear weapon proliferation. The Chinese government is deeply worried about this and feels uneasy about the present nuclear race in South Asia. We hereby call on countries concerned in South Asia to exercise the utmost restraint and to immediately abandon all nuclear weapons development programs to avoid a further worsening of the situation and for the sake of peace and stability in the South Asian region." ["China Says Regrets Pakistan Nuke Tests," Lateline News, 28 May 1998; "Pakistan Evens Nuclear Account: Sharif," China Daily, 29 May 1998.]
In addition, on 29 May China supported a UN Security Council resolution that "strongly deplores" the nuclear tests by Pakistan. The council had initially met in a late night session on 28 May to discuss this issue; however, the Chinese ambassador reportedly indicated he had yet to receive "clearance to support the statement from his superiors in Beijing." ["UN Security Council 'Deplores' Pakistan's Tests," CNN, 29 May 1998.]
Despite China's criticism of Pakistan's nuclear tests, in his nationally televised speech following the nuclear tests, Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif praised China for its support during "this hour of crisis" and said Pakistan was proud of its great neighbour. ["Account Evened with India, Says PM: Pakistan Opts to Go Nuclear," Dawn, 29 May 1998.]

http://cns.miis.edu/research/india/china/nsacris.htm

Prof Raghu
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Prof Raghu » 10 Jan 2004 04:25

Rangudu,
Ask for archives from 1998-99 in BRF -- if anyone has stored them. There were some very interesting threads. Ramana is the best person to ask if he has archived them.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby svinayak » 10 Jan 2004 04:34

Originally posted by ramana:
Was AQK in Germany before his work at URENCO?
AQK's wife is from Germany. Most of the components were outsourced from Germany clandestinely.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Vivek_A » 10 Jan 2004 04:37

aww poor pakis..vast American conspiracy against the land of the pure..

No end to anti-Pakistan campaign

By Khalid Hasan

WASHINGTON: If there is one story in the American press that refuses to go away, thanks to the agencies and individuals keeping it afloat, it is the story of Pakistan’s undependability as a nuclear weapon state.

As if enough had not been already printed and said with little that is new Daniel Schorr, a well-regarded commentator on National Public Radio, has now lent his voice to what has become an unending onslaught against Pakistan.

In a commentary also printed by the Christian Science Monitor on Friday, Mr Schorr writes that history may record that the early 21st century witnessed the breakdown of the three-decade-long effort to halt the spread of nuclear weapons. He quotes the New York Times to allege that much of the responsibility for that will go to the father of the Pakistani bomb, Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan. “Since the non-proliferation treaty of 1970, the five charter members of the nuclear club, the United States, Soviet Union, Britain, France, and China have worked to keep the bomb out of other hands. They did not succeed with Israel, India, and Pakistan. A new menace arose when Pakistan went into the export business, undeterred by the US, which relied on Pakistani help against the Russians in Afghanistan, and later against the Al Qaeda terrorists.”

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Umrao » 10 Jan 2004 04:56

Folks >> Tomorrow in the week end edition there is a discussion on Paki Bomb and threat to world. NPR

Umrao
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Umrao » 10 Jan 2004 04:59

when visiting Archives of 1998-99 please pay particular attention to some well known South Asian experts much sought out ( and catered to SD) who used to frequent this forum (more often.)

Umrao
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Umrao » 10 Jan 2004 05:01

Muddur>> Please edit the link to g8 posted. It is screwing up the formating.TIA

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Johann » 10 Jan 2004 05:15

Ramana, I think Dr. Khan spent a year or two studying metallurgy at the Technical University in Berlin in the early 1960s.

Acharya, his wife is Boer, not German. They met while Khan was in the Netherlands.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby vsunder » 10 Jan 2004 05:42

About Chagai on May 28th, my analysis indicates two devices were detonated, each one was a 8-10kt device, these were simultaneously detonated,
spectral analysis of the seismic data from Chagai does not indicate separate events but a single blast. The Gupta paper in Current Science puts its finger on that issue with the spectral analysis. Sharif did indicate that 5 devices were simultaneously detonated but the seismic evidence
does not bear it out.
The analysis of mine is well-known to senior members of the forum who have seen my reasons and seems to be now quietly validated as being correct.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Roop » 10 Jan 2004 08:56

Anticipating further question from someone to Johann ("what is BND?") :

BND = Bundesnachrichtendienst i.e. the German Intelligence Service.

Now, as far as these Paknukes are concerned, oldtimers here on BR will remember (I hope) the lengthy discussion we had here re. the Pu traces etc. (a USAF U2 spy plane flew over the area, including over India) in late May, after the Paktests. It took air samples etc. Somehow or other (I forget how) the "news" that entered the public domain was the presence of Pu in those air samples (traces that were not present after the Indian tests). Ergo: the Paknukes were Chinese designs.

That is the gist of my memory on these discussions, Ramana may want to confirm/correct my account.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby arun » 10 Jan 2004 09:18

Posting in full :



DIA arrest tied to nuke control law

By Karen Abbott, Rocky Mountain News

January 9, 2004

Federal authorities have a man from South Africa in custody for allegedly sending U.S.-made parts that can detonate nuclear weapons to Pakistan.

Asher Karni, 50, of Cape Town, was arrested around New Year's Day at Denver International Airport when he arrived for a Colorado ski vacation. The exact arrest date could not be determined from court documents available Thursday.

The documents said a New Jersey export company with which Karni had corresponded ordered 200 "triggered spark gaps," high-speed electrical switches that can be used as detonating devices in nuclear weapons, from the manufacturer, Perkin Elmer Optoelectronics of Massachusetts.

The triggered spark gaps are on a U.S. government list of items that cannot be shipped to certain countries, including Pakistan, without a special U.S. export license. The license requirement is intended to stem the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

Perkin Elmer officials, cooperating with U.S. agents, sent the first shipment of 66 triggered spark gaps to the New Jersey company as scheduled in September.

But Perkin Elmer irreparably disabled the devices first.

The New Jersey company allegedly disguised the nature of the triggered spark gaps on shipping documents, describing them as a different item and also claiming they were destined for a hospital in South Africa. Those changes in the shipping documents enabled the New Jersey company to avoid having to get the special export license.
The triggered spark gaps can be used by hospitals to destroy kidney stones, but manufacturer Perkin Elmer told federal agents that no hospital had ever ordered more than a handful of them and that even the largest hospitals have very few.

In South Africa, Karni received the triggered spark gaps from the New Jersey company and then allegedly shipped them on to a company in Pakistan.

Then, according to court documents, Karni e-mailed the New Jersey company: "Have sent them off to the customer and have not had any complaints yet, i hope i will not have, is there a reason for the question? right away, had a look at one only and it looked o.k., but i do not have a clue if they do what they should do . . . Please let me know when you will be able to do the next shipopment of 66 pcs. Best regards, asher."

The government's affidavit for Karni's arrest said he admitted the scheme when South African police searched his business, Top-Cape Technology of Cape Town, on Dec. 11.

The government also said it had a fax sent by Perkin Elmer's French sales agent to Karni in June, explaining that a U.S. export license was required to ship the triggered spark gaps to Pakistan.

The criminal case against Karni is pending in Washington, D.C.. He is expected to be transferred there from Colorado.

If Pakistan is “Nuke Nood” then this crosses one more proliferation red line besides raising the question as to who is the ultimate beneficiary.

Alternatively Pakistan is not “Nuke Nood”. I am inclined to this view.

That then leaves the most prosaic explanation of all, namely that Pakistan’s medical infrastructure is very well endowed with lithotripsy machines.

On a side note South Africa seems to be emerging as a conduit of some consequence for meeting Pakistan’s military needs. The MEA should IMO use this opportunity to articulate our displeasure at South Africa’s laxity.

URL.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 25 Dec 2003

Postby Umrao » 10 Jan 2004 09:21

mohan raju>> you are on the dot, then there was the spin that Indian tests vented and the samples obtained over Chagai were actually Indian Pu. In the ancient city tubelightabad, anything spins.

Then wallace came down charging shouting Indian Fusion failed, Indian test yields were less than claimed etc etc etc

ourman uneven Cohen, allbrights, kreepons timothys etc etc started variations of the same spin.


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