Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Umrao
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Umrao » 24 Jan 2004 01:03

There is no equivalent to a Pakistani Stand up.
Take for instance

Foreign Inputs
Indian and some other foreign observers attribute Pakistan’s achievement of nuclear and missile
capability to transfer of technology from outside. They tend to ignore the fact that the technology is no longer a secret and that Pakistani scientists and engineers educated at home and abroad have made a prodigious contribution braving the tremendous obstacles erected by discriminatory sanctions.
This in May 1999 by Abdul Sattar

http://www.mi.infn.it/~landnet/NSA/sattar.pdf

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Sunil » 24 Jan 2004 01:06

http://www.nation.com.pk/daily/Jan-2004/1/EDITOR/op4.asp

An interesting article here by FAS Bokhari. He claims he met LTG K A Kidwai of the NCA-SPD and somehow came away with the impression that the CRS estimates of the "Indo-Pak Strategic Assets" (WTF are those???) which seem to have only an estimate of India's nuclear strengths are accurate.

So is it possible that CRS gets its information from the Pakistanis? and whenever an oh-so-curious Pakistani waltzes into K A Kidwai's office in I'bad, K A Kidwai gives him the CRS report and says Dekho `American' Experts Yeh Kehtey hain - Galat ho sakta hain kya? - absolutely not.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Vivek_A » 24 Jan 2004 01:45

Earth to paagal Sehgal..Gola has admitted TSP nuke scientists sold nuclear secrets..

Questionable debriefing :D

First of all, the anti-Pakistan media blitz, accusing it of nuclear proliferation, should have been carefully analysed for its motives. Most likely, it is an orchestrated campaign of disinformation designed to prove that Islamabad cannot be relied on for keeping the prized know-how to itself and was thus not qualified to remain a nuclear weapons state. The Western media's primary focus ever since we exploded atomic devices in 1998 has been to raise doubts about our competence to adhere to the imperatives of non-proliferation, ignoring the reality that we have in place a strong, foolproof command and control structure.

hey..foolproof by world standards..the pakis are just bigger fools.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Sunil » 24 Jan 2004 01:50

> We have a fool proof command and control system in place.

H&D, H&D, H&D, H&D.....

* honor and dignity.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby jarugn » 24 Jan 2004 02:52


Prateek
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Prateek » 24 Jan 2004 02:58

Here is what the famous Paki news paper has to say :)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3424007.stm
Musharraf admission on secrets


Musharraf insists there was no government involvement Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf has said it appears that Pakistani scientists have sold nuclear secrets to other nations.


But the president again stressed there was no government involvement.

Speaking to CNN at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, he said: "It is clear it was done by individuals for their own personal financial gain."

The Pakistani leader also said that al-Qaeda could have been behind two recent attempts on his life.

Pakistan began an investigation into possible illegal transfers of nuclear technology to countries such as Iran more than a month ago.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Prateek » 24 Jan 2004 03:05

Amanpour: Why has Pakistan changed its tone in the last few months? Previously Pakistan had furiously denied any kind of transfer at any point to any nation.

Musharraf: Obviously facts and figures. It is intelligence.
No government in past proliferated. There are individuals we did not know about. Now that someone accused them, we started investigation them. It is not a question of changing stance ... it is just that names have been revealed and we have information and we have investigated and we are coming to certain conclusions now.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/01/23/musharraf.transcript.cnna/

WHO are these individuals ??? Are they not paid by Paki government ????


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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Rangudu » 24 Jan 2004 05:55

Dung report by Kamran "ISI" Khan

Dr Qadeer’s fate hangs in balance

By Kamran Khan

KARACHI: Investigators probing the nuclear imbroglio have determined that at least two scientists acted inappropriately and exchanged information with Iran beyond the limit authorised to them by the government in late 1980s, according to senior officials.

Officials said in 1987 former military ruler General Zia-ul-Haq had approved a longstanding request from the Iranian government for an unpublicised cooperation in peaceful nuclear programme. But Zia had specifically limited Pak-Iran nuclear technology to non-military spheres.

"Just before his death in 1988 when I told Zia about Iran’s growing interest in non-peaceful nuclear matters, he asked me to play around but not to yield anything substantial at any cost," said a top retired nuclear scientist, who asked not to be identified.

The scientist said he was aware that the Iranians were intensely pursuing the matter with General Aslam Beg, Zia’s successor, but did not know how Beg responded to the Iranian request because by that time he was not directly associated with the programme.

Pakistan had launched scores of military officials serving the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Strategic Planning and Division that controls the Khan Research Laboratory (KRL) in the third week of November to retrace the alleged doubtful activities of some scientists, with focus on events that took place in late 1980s and early 1990s.

This probe stemmed from specific observation made by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in a two-page letter to the government after inspection of Iranian nuclear facilities by its inspector in November last year.

"Whether the findings are made public or not the recent investigation has completely altered Dr A Q Khan’s profile in the government’s record," said a knowledgeable official who added: "Sometimes national heroes have no hesitation in exceeding limits."

A senior official familiar with the probe has said disciplinary and legal action is being recommended against Dr Mohammad Farooq, a senior scientist with KRL. President Pervez Musharraf, on his return from Davos next week, will decide the future course of action to address Dr A Q Khan’s role in the whole affair.

"A legal examination of the probe is underway, but it seems that Dr Farooq will be charged for violating the Official Secret Act," the official said. "Dr A Q Khan was questioned in view of Dr Farooq’s statement and his answers are being verified."

In late eighties and early nineties Dr Farooq, as an important confidante of Dr Khan, was associated with nuclear centrifuge technology at the KRL, officials said.

Farooq was the first Pakistani nuclear scientist to be detained in Islamabad on November 27 following the IAEA letter and an intimation from the Iranian government that identified Farooq as one of the Pakistani contacts for its nuclear scientists, officials said.

Officials said the government’s priority at the moment is to ensure the IAEA that Pakistan not only followed its observation most seriously, it is also penalising the scientists who acted beyond the call of their duties.

The IAEA will be issuing its "Iran Report" next month. There is a general recognition in the national security community that failure to satisfy the IAEA could seriously endanger Pakistan’s status as a responsible nuclear state.

Officials said three of the closest confidantes of Dr Khan are currently being questioned to what one official said "scan the whole range of Dr A Q Khan’s activities in the past 15 years or so".

"In Pakistan we have investigated and prosecuted prime ministers and military chiefs, so there shouldn’t be any uproar against investigation of an international charge-sheet against nuclear scientists," remarked an official.

Military investigators are currently questioning Dr Nazir Ahmad, director general of KRL. He was the most trusted A Q Khan lieutenant at the KRL till Musharraf replaced Dr Khan with Dr Javed Mirza as head of the KRL in 2001.

"Nazir is providing a blow by blow inside account of the KRL affairs under Khan," an official said. Though Nazir is not currently involved in the KRL affairs, being an all-time associate of Khan he is still serving Dr Khan, who is an advisor to the prime minister on scientific affairs.

"Having served Khan as his personal assistant for more than a decade, Major Islamul Haq is giving investigators a graphic account on Khan’s official and personal affairs and contacts." Major Haq was detained last week from Khan’s residence in Islamabad.

The official said Brigadier Sajawal, responsible for construction and engineering activities at the KRL, is being debriefed about the process for awarding contract and cooperation with foreign contractors.

Similarly Brigadier Tajwar is being debriefed about the security situation at the KRL as it appeared that a few scientists were allowed to by-pass the strict security guidelines approved for the KRL.

Officials said detention of Dr Nazir, Brigadier Tajwar , Brigadier Sajawal and Major Haq showed that the government is not just probing the "Iran saga". Officials said from the day one of this investigation, President Musharraf wanted complete overhauling of personnel and technical affairs of the KRL.

Officials said since they now have a fairly good idea of the levels of nuclear knowledge transferred to Iran by two scientists they need not to probe the "Beg angle".

"I don’t know about the exact nature of transfer of technology that took place but I knew that nothing moves in Pakistani nuclear spectrum without the knowledge of the chief of army staff," said a former Pakistani nuclear scientist, who questioned Beg’s press statements, saying while he was the COAS the decision making about nuclear programme was with the former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and later with Nawaz Sharif.

Officials, though do not discount Beg’s influence and knowledge about the nuclear exchange that took place between some Pakistani and Iranian nuclear scientists in 1989-90, said equally important voice in the nuclear matters during that period was that of Ghulam Ishaq Khan, former president.

"If A Q Khan is the father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb, Ghulam Ishaq Khan was the grandfather," said a senior official echoing the notion expressed by knowledgeable nuclear scientists.

"From 1982 to 1993 Ishaq held the wallet for the nuclear programme," said a retired nuclear scientist. Ishaq first arranged the finances of the nuclear programme as Zia’s finance minister. He controlled that unique position as the chairman Senate (1985-88) and as president (1988-93).

"Strategic decision making rests with the respective army chiefs, but Ishaq alone coordinated and controlled money matters as well as key strategic affairs," revealed a knowledgeable nuclear scientist. "A Q Khan’s most important patron in the government was Ishaq Khan."

The 83-year old Ishaq Khan, who resigned as the president after losing majority in the parliament in 1993, currently lives in his hometown in Peshawar where his relatives described him as "seriously ill".

In the present circumstances, several Pakistani officials said President Musharraf’s current priority is to contain the crisis and ensure that such vital pilferage doesn’t tale place in the future.

"Any trial of the nuclear scientist, particularly, any gesture of public disgrace for A Q Khan from the government will open a Pandora box," a ranking official said. "Bygone is bygone, let’s move forward, this is what the president believes in these crucial moments."

President Musharraf, however, has made no personal attempt to hide the fact that greed and personal motivation of a few nuclear scientists caused the IAEA’s Pakistan-related observations. In at least three large meetings with parliamentarians and ministers over the past few weeks, the president lamented the role of a few unnamed scientists and expressed determination to take them to task.
:roll:

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Rangudu » 24 Jan 2004 08:09

Senate Hearing this week:

An Update on North Korean Nuclear Developments

Some excerpts from the transcripts:

--snip--
MR. HECKER: Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, Senator Biden. It's an honor to appear before you to talk about this very important issue.

--snip--

You pointed out, both of you, the seriousness of the North Korean nuclear issues. And Mr. -- Senator Biden, as you know, I was here two years ago, talking about the more global issues of my concerns of nonproliferation, and North Korea was certainly near the top. At that time, Pakistan was at the top, and I must say it remains at the top of my list of concerns today.

--snip--

SEN. BIDEN: The reason I -- I know you know the reason I ask the question, but I want to clarify it for the record, is that when we went into Afghanistan and defeated the Taliban, a journalist walked out of a safe house, I believe in Kandahar, with a diagram, a diagram of a rifle device that some scientists said was an attempt at figuring out how to take -- to build a nuclear device. There was word that two Pakistani nuclear scientists had met with either bin Laden and/or his principals, and off and running was the race, what was al Qaeda about, what were they trying to do? And this device that was depicted and was shown, I think in U.S. News and World (Report), or one of the papers, turned out to be something that most scientists said didn't get the job done, but the quest seemed to be moving down the road of figuring out how to build a rudimentary, crude nuclear device that would cause a nuclear reaction -- not a dirty bomb that would spread radiation, but would cause the mushroom cloud, the heat, the wave, the implosion, et cetera.

--snip--

MR. HECKER: --snip--

But there is one comment that I want to make that is often forgotten, and that is that we must never forget the horrific consequences of nuclear weapons. You know, today we only have the distant, you know, but stark reminders of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But these weapons are weapons of a totally different type. When you release the energy of the nucleus, you're talking about a factor of millions compared to anything that can be done conventionally. So these weapons are instantly destructive. They're more powerful by this factor of million than anything else. They're disastrous both psychologically and physically. And I spent, you know, a good part of my professional life dealing with the strengths of the Soviet Union, or the presumed strengths of the Soviet Union and their nuclear complex. And I've spent much of the rest of the last 12 years of my life dealing with the potential weaknesses of the new Russia and the issues associated with cooperative threat deduction, and now the last couple of years dealing with these new problems, much more imminent and potentially much more dangerous, and that is the Pakistans, Irans and North Koreas.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Rangudu » 24 Jan 2004 09:41

NY Times report.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/24/international/europe/24NUKE.html

Pakistan Chief Says It Appears Scientists Sold Nuclear Data

By MARK LANDLER and DAVID E. SANGER

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan. 23 — Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, acknowledged Friday that scientists from his country appeared to have sold nuclear designs to other nations probably "for personal financial gain." He denied that the Pakistan government knew of any sales at the time but vowed that suspects would be dealt with "as antistate elements."

General Musharraf's statement at a global economic forum here came after weeks of delicate efforts to force Pakistan to deal with the scientists, according to diplomats and American officials. Technical documents recently obtained from Libya on its nuclear program, as well as documents relating to Iran's nuclear activities, undercut years of Pakistani denials and appeared to force General Musharraf's hand, diplomats and American officials said.

The documents "have created a situation in which the denials no longer hold up," one senior American official said.

General Musharraf met several times in recent weeks with Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of the Pakistani atomic bomb, who is revered in the country as a national hero, the officials said. A number of scientists closely tied to Dr. Khan have been detained for questioning. There have already been protests in Islamabad over the detentions, and some European and American officials said that General Musharraf seemed to be preparing for arrests or other legal actions.

Starting in late December, Pakistani government officials began backing away from their vigorous denials that their scientists had provided critical help to several aspiring nuclear states, including Iran and North Korea. But on Friday, General Musharraf went further. "Well, I would not like to predict," he said in an interview with CNN, "but it appears that some individuals, as I said, were involved for personal financial gain."

General Musharraf continued to insist that the government was not involved in the sales, portraying the actions as the efforts of corrupt scientists. American officials, however, are clearly skeptical of those claims.

They note that when Pakistan received missile parts from North Korea — believed to be the quid pro quo for nuclear aid — a Pakistani air force cargo jet was dispatched to Pyongyang, North Korea, to pick up the parts. They also note that the A. Q. Khan Research Laboratories are the crown jewel of the Pakistani nuclear program, with close ties to both the military and the intelligence agency, the I.S.I.

"I don't think anyone has proven the case :roll: for officially sanctioned transfers of technology," one senior American official said recently. But a senior European diplomat who has reviewed much of the evidence said that "it stretches credulity that proliferation on this scale can occur without senior officials in the government knowing about it."


General Musharraf told CNN that there were also credible allegations against European nuclear middlemen and other nations, "so it is not Pakistan alone." The same theme was struck Friday by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, who said that the global black market in nuclear materials and equipment had grown into a virtual "Wal-Mart" for weapons-seeking countries.

Dr. ElBaradei, director general of the agency, the United Nations' watchdog on atomic weapons, said he was astonished by the scale and complexity of the illicit trafficking through which the Libyans obtained material and blueprints for nuclear weapons designs.

"All of that was obtained abroad," he said in an interview during the World Economic Forum meeting here. "All of what we saw was a result of the Wal-Mart of private-sector proliferation.

"When you see things being designed in one country, manufactured in two or three others, shipped to a fourth, redirected to a fifth, that means there's lots of offices all over the world," Dr. ElBaradei said. "The sophistication of the process, frankly, has surpassed my expectations."

Dr. ElBaradei said he was satisfied with the level of cooperation shown by the Libyans.

Documents provided by the Libyans indicated that the uranium enrichment equipment they were using was based on a sophisticated design that could only have come from the A.Q. Khan Research Laboratories. The centrifuge design is known as a "Pak-2," indicating that it was a second-generation version that probably dates from the late 1980's, American officials said.

"They are taking us everywhere we want to go," Dr. ElBaradei said of the Libyans. "They are answering all our questions, they are showing us all of what they have."

In interviews, American officials have insisted that Pakistan, not the United States, is leading the investigation, though the American officials acknowledge providing information to Islamabad. The biggest trove came after the Libyan leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, agreed in December to dismantle his unconventional weapons programs, and to turn over documents about how he developed them.

"Pakistan's cooperation is key for us to understand the dimension of the problem," Dr. ElBaradei said in the interview on Friday. "I have no reason to believe the government was involved, but I hope to have a clear picture in a few weeks."

Dr. ElBaradei's confidence, however, was leavened by his acknowledgment that neither his agency, nor the intelligence branches of the big countries, have a clear idea of the extent of nuclear trafficking.

"The system is under a good deal of stress," he said. "We need to take this seriously."

American officials say they are uncertain why General Musharraf is now moving against the scientists. They suggested in recent interviews that the evidence has become so overwhelming that he has begun to fear the reimposition of sanctions by Congress. But they also suggest that he may be trying to reassert his power, demonstrating that he will not be intimidated by critics who say he has warmed up too much to the United States, both in the hunt for Al Qaeda terrorists and in Washington's demands to clamp down on proliferation.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Rangudu » 24 Jan 2004 09:47

Kamran Khan's Dung report has been touched up for the Washington Post, with more details.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A43223-2004Jan23.html?nav=hptop_tb

Pakistani Probe Cites Top Scientists

Iran Nuclear Effort Said Aided in Secret '80s Deal


By John Lancaster and Kamran Khan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, January 24, 2004; Page A01

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Pakistani investigators have concluded that at least two of the country's top nuclear scientists -- including Abdul Qadeer Khan, considered the father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb -- provided unauthorized technical assistance to Iran's nuclear weapons program in the late 1980s, according to senior Pakistani officials.

The scientists allegedly provided the help under a secret agreement between Pakistan and Iran that was supposed to be limited to the sharing of peaceful nuclear technology, the officials said on condition of anonymity.

The findings pose a political dilemma for Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's president. Islamic hard-liners have rallied to the defense of the scientists, who are regarded as national heroes, and have accused the government of pursuing the investigations to gain favor with the Bush administration.

Musharraf acknowledged on Friday that it appeared Pakistani scientists had sold nuclear secrets abroad "for personal financial gain" but reiterated his government's position that there had been no official involvement, the Reuters news agency reported from Davos, Switzerland, where Musharraf was attending the World Economic Forum. "There is no such evidence that any government personality or military personality was involved in this at all," he said.

Pakistani officials identified the second scientist as Mohammed Farooq, a high-ranking manager at the country's premier nuclear weapons laboratory, which is named after Khan. Some investigators have recommended charging Farooq under Pakistan's Official Secrets Act, which carries a possible prison term, the officials said. Farooq has been in government custody since his arrest Nov. 22.

Musharraf will make a final decision on whether to pursue charges against either scientist -- and perhaps others -- after he returns from Davos this weekend.

"A legal examination of the probe is underway, but it seems that Dr. Farooq will be charged with violating the Official Secrets Act," said a senior intelligence official, adding that Farooq had implicated Khan in the course of his discussions with investigators. "Dr. A.Q. Khan was questioned in view of Dr. Farooq's statement," the official said.

Pakistan launched its investigation in November after the International Atomic Energy Agency provided information suggesting Pakistani scientists had helped Iran develop centrifuges used to make enriched uranium, a key ingredient in nuclear weapons. U.S. officials have said that Pakistan over the years has provided similar assistance to North Korea and that they suspect its scientists of doing the same for Libya; they have also said they accept Musharraf's assurances that any collaboration with North Korea has stopped.

The investigation has been widely condemned by Pakistanis as further evidence that Washington is meddling in their country's internal affairs, and some government officials also question the aggressiveness with which it is being pursued.

An aide to Musharraf acknowledged that a public trial of Farooq or Khan could prove highly embarrassing if it led to further disclosures, especially concerning the role of the military, the main power center in Pakistani politics and for decades the overseer of its nuclear program.

"Any trial of a nuclear scientist -- particularly any gesture of public disgrace for A.Q. Khan from the government -- will open a Pandora's box," said the aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Bygones are bygones, :roll: let's move forward -- this is what the president believes in these crucial moments."


The uniformed establishment has largely escaped scrutiny in the probe, which is being conducted primarily by the Inter-Services Intelligence agency, a branch of the military, and is said to be days away from completion. Officials acknowledged, for example, that investigators have yet to interview retired Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg, who openly advocated a military alliance with Iran during his tenure as army chief of staff from 1988 to 1991.

Chaudry Nisar Ali Khan, a former cabinet-level assistant to then-prime minister Nawaz Sharif, said in an interview Thursday that Beg approached him in 1991 with a proposal to sell nuclear technology to Iran. [color=red]Former U.S. ambassador Robert Oakley said Beg personally told him in 1991 that he had reached an understanding with the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards to help Iran with its nuclear program in return for conventional weapons and oil.

Later, Oakley said, Sharif and Pakistan's president at that time, Ghulam Ishaq Khan, told Iranian president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani that the Pakistani government had no intention of carrying out such an agreement. That, however, "did not necessarily mean that Beg and A.Q. Khan did not go forward," Oakley said.</font>


In interviews Thursday and Friday, Beg acknowledged that he had maintained close ties with Iranian generals but denied that he ever authorized the transfer of nuclear technology. "It never happened," he said, describing allegations as "part of the conspiracy against me."

Beg acknowledged, however, that he worked out an agreement with Iran on sharing expertise on several types of conventional-weapons technology but that the planned collaboration never took place.

Although several retired military officers of lower rank have been detained in connection with the probe, its focus on the cream of the civilian nuclear establishment has prompted charges by opposition politicians and family members, among others, that the scientists are being singled out under U.S. pressure.

"My father is being made a scapegoat," Asim Farooq , a physician and the son of the detained scientist, said in a telephone interview Friday. "He is just a scientist, not a decision maker. He only did what was best for Pakistan." An open trial, he said, "will expose the whole truth."

Khan, who has been questioned but has not been detained, did not return a telephone message left at his home here Friday. A strident nationalist who has accused the West of hostility to Islam, he was forced out as director of the nuclear lab in 2001, partly under U.S. pressure, and currently serves as an adviser to the government of Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali.

Information Minister Rashid Ahmed said in an interview Thursday that there was "no need" to interview Beg or other senior military officers because the country's nuclear program "was not under the control of the military" during the period when Beg was army chief. Most of Beg's tenure coincided with the first government of Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who was forced from power in August 1990 by President Khan and succeeded by Sharif.

Bhutto claimed that the army engineered her ouster because she had tried to exert control over its activities, including the nuclear program.

In an e-mail response to questions, Bhutto, who lives abroad, said that as prime minister she had limited influence over the activities of the Khan Research Laboratories, known as KRL, and that the facility's "security was in control of the military." Her attempts to "control the direction of nuclear policy" were "much resisted," she added.

In Washington, U.S. officials expressed skepticism about the vigor of Pakistan's investigation and its denials of high-level army complicity. On the other hand, said a Bush administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity, "it's not lost on us that it's a fragile situation there. We are sensitive to the pressure that Musharraf is under from Islamic extremists." :roll: :roll:

The official suggested that with international pressure mounting on Pakistan following revelations of its nuclear dealings with South Korea, some of which allegedly took place as recently as 2001, Musharraf apparently felt he had no choice but to follow up on the latest allegations concerning Iran, even though they relate to a period that long predates the 1999 coup that brought him to power.

"They couldn't stick their heads in the sand any longer and say, 'It wasn't on our watch,' " the administration official said. "Outside pressure would be too great."

While Iran has not directly named Pakistan as a supplier, IAEA inspectors who examined the country's nuclear facilities last fall concluded that that its centrifuges were probably based on Pakistani designs, a finding the U.N. agency shared with Islamabad in a two-page letter in November.

Authorities subsequently have acknowledged detaining at least 11 current or former employees of the Khan laboratory, including eight picked up for what officials described as "debriefing" last week. Several have been released but most, including Farooq, remain in custody. Two other nuclear scientists were barred this week from traveling to Mecca, Saudi Arabia, on the annual Muslim pilgrimage, according to Ahmed, the information minister.

Officials described Farooq as a close confidant of Khan who has worked at the lab since the 1980s and, like Khan, is an expert in centrifuge technology. The purpose in detaining him and several other close associates of the former lab chairman, including Nazir Ahmad, a former director general of the lab, is to "scan the whole range of Dr. A.Q. Khan's activities in the past 15 years or so," a senior intelligence official said.

The leakage of nuclear weapons technology to Iran, officials said, apparently originated in 1987, when former president Mohammed Zia ul-Haq secretly approved a long-standing request from the Iranian government for cooperation in non-military nuclear programs.

A former senior scientist in Pakistan's nuclear program, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Iranian scientists had expressed interest in "non-peaceful nuclear matters." The scientist said that when he called this to Zia's attention shortly before the general's death in 1988, Zia "asked me to play around but not to yield anything substantial, at any cost."

The scientist said the Iranians also pursued the matter with Beg but that he did not know what became of their efforts because by that time he had left the program.

Nisar Ali Khan, the former cabinet official under Sharif, said the army chief of staff argued in the immediate aftermath of the 1991 Persian Gulf War that "if America is able to overwhelm Iraq, next it will be the turn of Pakistan and Iran."

Beg proposed that to keep that from happening, Pakistan should sell its nuclear technology to Iran as part of a "grand alliance" against the United States, Nisar Ali Khan said. "He was generally saying that if America comes down hard on us in response to this alignment, we could easily take advantage of our new technology financially."

Nisar Ali Khan said neither he nor Sharif took the proposal seriously.


Beg denied the conversation ever took place. "It was always under the chief executive," he said of Pakistan's nuclear program. "To think that Dr. Qadeer [Khan] or I would transfer technology to any other country is, I would say, preposterous."

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby jrjrao » 24 Jan 2004 14:16

Libya Gives UN Inspectors Nuclear Weapon Drawings
VIENNA (AP)--Libya gave U.N. inspectors drawings of a nuclear weapon, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Friday, the clearest sign yet that Libya was at some point serious about building such arms.

"We have put those drawings under our seal, and they are secure," Mark Gwozdecky, chief spokesman for the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, said without elaborating.

Asked about the significance of the development, a diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity said "it's the first time anyone has acknowledged" that Libya entertained intentions of building such a weapon.

The diplomat, who is familiar with the agency's work in Libya, said the drawings weren't of a complete weapons system including a missile or other means of delivery but more like a warhead. He described it as, "a device that goes boom, which can be put on a missile or can be put into a bomb form."

He said that members of the joint U.S.-British team would be taking the drawings out of Libya within the next few days to evaluate them.

The nuclear agency declined to comment further, but a disarmament expert following its work in Libya said the drawings were not produced by Libyan scientists but were procured from foreign sources.

The fact that the drawings were produced abroad are bound to further raise alarm bells in Washington and other capitals concerned with the relative ease weapons expertise can be acquired by a country looking to build nuclear arms.

The drawings - and any find of weapons making components or equipment - are also likely to fuel discussion of how far along the nuclear weapons road Libya was. Washington says the country was advanced, whereas the IAEA has maintained its programs were at the starting stage.

International attention is focusing on Pakistan or Pakistani nationals as suppliers of nuclear technology and expertise to Libya, Iran and North Korea.

For years Pakistan has rejected allegations. But the country started hedging in December, saying individuals motivated by ambition or greed may have sold secrets.
URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,BT_CO_20040123_006454,00.html

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Calvin » 24 Jan 2004 19:11

Sunil S;

I think your red herring is on the mark. Since KRL was probably the "indigenous" Pakistani effort that *FAILED* it probably makes sense to sacrifice them, rather than PAEC which would reveal the ties to China and NK.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby kgoan » 24 Jan 2004 19:48

Calvin:

Definitely fishy. But, the nuke angle may not be so straight forward. Recall the N Koreans claim, and the US seems to believe, that the NKoreans do have nukes which are uranium based.

Q: Did the Iran-Pak relation sour when the Iranians realised the Paks/NKoreans sold them a lemon? Or when they realised that Beg couldn't deliver - despite his talk - because of the US?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Umrao » 24 Jan 2004 20:04

Kal ki bum
Aaj ki raaz
Aasli kya hai
Naqli kya hai
Poocho BRF say

****
Laakh Chupaoo
Chupna sakega
Bum ki baath batha detha hai
Asli Naaqli chehra

Both songs from evergreen Devanand Hit Aasli Naqli

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Sunil » 24 Jan 2004 21:39

Calvin,

The program may not necessarily have failed. Permit me to suggest a bold scenario.

If we look at the reports coming out there appear to be generations of centrifuges (Pak 1, Pak 2 etc...) . This means that the Pakistanis went through several improvements in their technology base before they found ones that could deliver the level of enrichment needed at an acceptable cost. So to answer Kgoan's question, perhaps Iran wanted Pak-2s but found themselves stuck with Pak-1s post 1991?

There are pointers to a failed test in late April 1998, most of them appear to be sourced to the German intelligence agency and appeared in a German newspaper. There are also persistent rumors that Khan was downgraded in the run up to the tests in 1998 but after the tests Khan recieved an enormous amount of media attention and government support. This leads me to speculate that if indeed the devices that KRL manufactured failed the first time around, it was perhaps due to something in an electronic subsystem and not a failure in the composition or size of the core.

To continue my speculation, perhaps what happened after the subsystem failed was that KRL's fortunes plummeted (Khan's leadership became debatable) and PAEC stepped in with imported (from China) subsystems and re assembled the devices. As the tests proved the workability of the devices, it also proved that the enrichment process developed by KRL was viable. This is perhaps why KRL and Khan himself weren't dropped from an airplane into the Arabian sea after their `first attempt' failed.

The reason I say this is a red herring is because I feel (without any tangible proof) that Pakistan has abandoned the Uranium route. It no longer seeks to enrich Uranium to weapons grade levels instead it makes it into fuel rods for reactors (c.f. news of Shaukat Aziz's visit to the refining facility at Kahuta). It may simply be that this is not viewed as cost effective in Pakistan's economic context.

Pakistan is now actively pursuing a plutonium route to produce smaller and lighter weapons. I recall repreated references by Pakistanis to missiles like Abdali as a nuclear capable missile. This IMO suggests the intention to move in the direction of smaller lighter devices. This would be possible if the reactor grade Uranium was being quickly used up in reactors and then reprocessed into Plutonium. I am thinking of the reports of engineers at nuclear plants complaining about working standards that appeared in the South Asia Tribune. This was a sign of increasing amounts of reactor operation. After watching news coverage of the high level Chinese visits to Pakistan and the feeling of warmth that pervades Sino-Pak ties, I cannot help but feel that the Pakistanis are convinced of the sustainability of their Plutonium route.

This IMO is why the Uranium route and its proponents can to some degree be `outed' without serious damage to Pakistan's nuclear potential. The Uranium centrifuge line is now sanction proof.

I had opined earlier that the Non-Proliferation community which has suggested the measures to secure Pakistan's nukes (the core of the N^3 Nuke Nood theory) hasn't devoted enough time to understanding Pakistan's proliferation potential and pattern. There is no analysis of Pakistan's westward looking nuclear ambitions.

I cannot stress this enough; this post is the most speculative post I have ever made on BR, and I suggest that people treat the suggestions here with the greatest degree of scrutiny and skepticism possible.

I also suggest that people attempt something I did yesterday:

Sit with a blank sheet of paper, and write Pakistan in the center. On the top half of the paper list all the countries that have reports of Pakistanis being caught for smuggling in proscribed materials. On the bottom half write the names of the countries where it is alleged that Pakistan has transfered proscribed technology or indulged in nuclear related trade and look at the pattern that emerges. It stunned me how transparent this entire thing was.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby svinayak » 24 Jan 2004 22:01

Sunil,
I suggest looking in addition to another angle. The current campaign appears to go after the power center which is the most hawkish in the establishment. List the names being targetted and you will get an idea.
That is the one which is targeting Mush

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby jrjrao » 24 Jan 2004 22:02

AP wires:
The founder of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program has been barred from leaving Islamabad...
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/world/7788588.htm

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Sunil » 24 Jan 2004 22:08

Acharya,

The Western Press is targetting the people who are most hawkish in a visible sort of way. That is why M A Beg and H Gul are being named repeatedly. And the Pakistani press which is controlled by Musharraf's secretariat is helping the westerners pinpoint Gul and Beg types.

From the Musharraf's perspective `outing' these guys will help him consolidate his hold on power. Imagine if M A Beg or Hamid Gul were to make the claim that they could communicate as well with the Jihadis and the Americans as Musharraf could? where would that leave Musharraf?

Its like I take my dog for a walk and then ask him to bark at you whenever you jog by, because I dont like your jogging, not because my dog dislikes you, or I dislike you.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby svinayak » 24 Jan 2004 22:23

It is not just Mushy but the Unkil is also on the trail. This seems to be long term campaign to clean the stables so that they do not hold positions of power and influence ever again.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby svinayak » 24 Jan 2004 22:54

Pakistan Details Its Covert Nuke Program
Sat Jan 24, 9:56 AM ET

By NICOLAS B. TATRO, Associated Press Writer

DAVOS, Switzerland - Pakistan's president lifted the curtain Saturday on how his country developed its nuclear weapons program three decades ago, saying the covert nature of the system may have allowed scientists to sell nuclear secrets without detection.

He also said Europeans should be investigated along with Pakistani scientists who may have sold secrets abroad for "personal gain."

President Pervez Musharraf said Pakistan is investigating whether individuals in the government knew about the security leak. Agents also are checking the bank accounts of nine scientists and administrators detained on suspicion of selling nuclear technology to Iran and other countries, an Interior Minister in Pakistan said Saturday.

"We are carrying out an in-depth investigation and...we will sort out everyone who is involved," Musharaff said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (news - web sites) meeting in this Alpine resort.

Speaking to reporters at a breakfast meeting, Musharraf said Pakistan's secret program to develop a nuclear weapon was started about 30 years ago, after neighboring India conducted nuclear tests, and that scientists were given "freedom of action" to develop the technology.

"Covert meant scientists moved around with full autonomy in a secretive manner," he said, adding that the program "could succeed only if there was total autonomy and nobody knew. That is how it continued."

"Now, if there was some individual or individuals, unscrupulous, if they were for personal gain selling national assets ... it was possible because it was not open, it was not under strategic check and controls. That is why it was possible," he added.

He said those who might have leaked secrets were "anti-state elements" who acted against government policy.

The investigation began after Iran disclosed names of people who provided them with nuclear technology and they included Pakistani scientists, Musharraf said.

"I accept that," he said, adding that he would like to see European countries and scientists investigated for their involvement as well.

Musharraf, Pakistan's top general who seized power in a bloodless 1999 coup, said that only the European countries had the sophisticated metallurgy necessary to produce fissile materials required for nuclear weapons.

"There are European countries involved in the refining and producing. It is high-class metallurgy. Where is it available? In Europe. So why is no one talking about it?" he said.

The president said an investigation would reveal any government involvement, and "the possibility of individuals having been involved is there."

He said that the country's nuclear weapons were now under strict government control and could not be seized even if he was killed.

Musharraf, who survived two assassination attempts in the past month, said he had set up a national command authority that he chaired to guard the technology.

"There is very strict control and no question about it falling into anyone's hands," he told reporters.

Musharraf told The Associated Press after the meeting, "The security of all of this is a military responsibility. [color=red]As long as the military of Pakistan remains, nothing can go wrong.</font>"



In Islamabad, the Interior Ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said investigators suspect that of the nine detainees, one scientist and one other person did something for personal gain. He would give no names or further details.

For years Pakistan has scoffed at reports that its scientists might have been involved in proliferation.

But the country started hedging in December, saying individuals motivated by ambition or greed may have sold secrets, after U.N. inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities showed that "Pakistani-linked individuals" had acted as "intermediaries and black marketeers."

Pakistani scientists were later implicated in a scheme to sell high-tech centrifuge technology to Libya, and also have been named in probes into North Korea (news - web sites)'s nuclear program.

The nine scientists and administrators have been detained for what Pakistan calls "debriefings." Most have not been released, relatives say, and no formal appearances or charges have been made in court.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Bharat » 24 Jan 2004 23:01

The reports on Beg, Gul and Xerox is a testing of the waters by the Mush Govt.
They want to see the public reaction and take action. Primarily because Beg and Gul represent the era where militancy started to climb. They hold vast influence over the fundoos and bridge the gap between Army and Terrorists and ISI.
That is not a point that Mush wants to reduce militancy but in fact that he wants to control it totally. that is be able to turn the tap on or off as per his wishes.

But in whole Mush would never take action against Beg. It sets a dangerous precedent.
The Mush/Beg scenario is one we need to look at very carefully. Mirza Aslam Beg is no doubt one of the most influential ex Pak chief. His clout is still powerful seeing the speeches he gives.

By reducing his clout but not arresting him would be Mush answer to West questions of proliferation. The claim would be Beg has been stifled but cannot be arrested. The West would never pressurise on Beg. But Hamid Gul is another matter. The West (read USA) hates him and knows that he is a key player in ISI still and is actively helping the fundoos. Probably would want Mush to sort of exile him for a period of time.

As far as AQ Khan is concerned, the West would want Mush to ask him very specific questions to know about the nuclear proliferation extent. More importantly they would want to know where the Al Qaeda has problems in nuke development and go after that sector.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Calvin » 24 Jan 2004 23:03

For the nuke nudists out there, please note that Musharraf did not say that the nukes were under GOVERNMENT control, merely that they were under "strict control."

Going on to say that "and no question about it falling into anyone's hands" - including perhaps the hands of the Pakistani Army?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Raj Singh » 24 Jan 2004 23:13

Calvin

For the nuke nudists out there, please note that Musharraf did not say that the nukes were under GOVERNMENT control , merely that they were under "strict control."
Apparently some slip up/mistake is here/in the above. For the part quoted (in bold) by Acharya clearly states..

He said that the country's nuclear weapons were now under strict government control and could not be seized even if he was killed.


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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Umrao » 24 Jan 2004 23:23

One thing is for certain

1) The proliferation to Iran & Libya can/will be conveniently blamed on previous regimes (like Zia etc who are with 72 now) to make Mushy an angle

2)The above will also help the PRC / Unkil combo get out of undue scruitiny from world.

3) The real (maal) analysis will be what did N Korea get, if it got the working variety, the proliferation was definitely under the current actors of Pakistan.

4) the real fun is coming to know that N Korea has aasli maal, wher unkil has to face a working nuke to protect his own troops. It also will make Japan and S Korea very very uneasy.

I have a feeling the folks in spin city know this and hence the negotiations and active involvement of PRC.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Umrao » 24 Jan 2004 23:29

IF Mushy and his bum makers are so much in trouble why are we negotiating this regime I dont understand the reason.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Sarma » 24 Jan 2004 23:33

I believe that Mushy's contention that the Paki government was never involved in nuclear trade has to be understood from this viewpoint.

The time period of these transfers, which started from the late 1980s and lasted till the late 90s (at least), was when Pakistan has had civilian PMs as heads of the governments. What is also known is that when Benazir became the prime minister in 1989, Gen Beg (COAS at that time) and President Ghulam Ishaque had both extracted an assurance from BB that she would not intervene nor interfere in the military matters, which implicitly means nuclear matters especially. This situation continued till 1999, when Sharif was deposed by Mushy.

Thus, the civilian Pakistani govt, which never had any say in any nuclear matters, may not have been involved in the transfers, after all. Thus, most probably, it is the ISI and the top army generals who were directly responsible for these transfers. The timeline also tends to support this view. Late 80s was when the faucet of US doles dried out and PA was in a desperate need for money to maintain its conventional as well as nuclear arsenals. They also needed to supply and sustain the terrorist movements in Punjab and the newly initiated one in Kashmir.

All this left the army with one option -- to barter the nukes for money. So, when Mushy says govt was not involved, he is appealing to the Western sensitivities which tend to think of the govt as the executive authority and not the military players.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Neshant » 24 Jan 2004 23:48

> He said that the country's nuclear weapons were
> now under strict government control and could
> not be seized even if he was killed.

He must have divulged the location of the arsenal to the US.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Raj Singh » 24 Jan 2004 23:53

John Umrao

IF Mushy and his bum makers are so much in trouble why are we negotiating this regime I dont understand the reason.
Among few other reasons, one could be, the much talked about and feared bums are very much with Mushrraf/Pakistan. Since the bums are still with the regime so some sort of talks too would be there/with the regime.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Calvin » 25 Jan 2004 00:08

Raj: I understand. However that is the reporters inference of the statement quoted below. Musharraf did not say "government control" he just said "strict control"

"There is very strict control and no question about it falling into anyone's hands," he told reporters.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Prateek » 25 Jan 2004 05:49

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/01/25/wpak25.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/01/25/ixworld.html

Nuclear scientists from Pakistan admit helping Iran with bomb-making
By Massoud Ansari in Karachi


Scientists and officials working on Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme have admitted for the first time that they gave Iran crucial technical information on building an atomic bomb.

Interrogators who have questioned the eight people detained last weekend over allegations that nuclear secrets were sold abroad have confirmed that at least three confessed to helping pass secret nuclear know-how to their opposite numbers in Iran.

The two scientists and one official work for Khan Research Laboratory (KRL), the headquarters of the country's nuclear weapons programme, and include close associates of Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, a national hero in Pakistan as the "Father of the Bomb". One is said to be a senior manager at KRL and an expert in centrifuge technology.

All three deny supplying equipment directly to Iran, a senior official told the Telegraph. He said, however, that one scientist admitted: "We confided in them about the items needed to construct a nuclear bomb, as well as the makes of equipment, the names of companies, the countries from which they could be procured and how they could be procured."

Scientists are also said to have revealed the names of retired senior army officials and nuclear experts who played key roles in deals which helped Iran to launch its nuclear weapons programme. Pakistan's president, Pervez Musharraf, ordered an investigation of his country's nuclear scientists late last year, after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned of possible nuclear links between Pakistan and Iran, Libya and North Korea.

Iran pledged last year to halt uranium enrichment activity, but Western diplomats believe that the country is still acquiring advanced centrifuge equipment needed to make a nuclear weapon. Inspections carried out by IAEA inspectors or Iranian nuclear facilities revealed links with Pakistan, including blueprints for a type of centrifuge similar to those used by Pakistan.

The latest information from Pakistan's scientists poses a dilemma for President Musharraf, who promised last week to prosecute anyone who sold nuclear secrets.

He said on Friday that scientists appeared to have sold nuclear designs to other nations "for personal financial gain", but insisted that no state or government officials were involved. He must decide whether to widen the investigation to include senior military figures who have been identified by scientists.

"This is highly sensitive," said an official. "Some of those identified by the scientists are 'big names', and it would not be easy for the government to lay its hands on them."

Last weekend's arrests bring the number of KRL scientists and officials arrested by Pakistani authorities over the past two months to more than 20, including key members of the team responsible for Pakistan's 1998 nuclear test. Most have since been released, but at least nine are still under interrogation. Dr Khan has also been questioned, although he was not detained and he denied any involvement in passing information abroad.

However, after these latest disclosures, officials said, that Pakistani authorities are investigating the wealth accumulated by nuclear scientists and KRL officials, many of whom enjoy luxurious homes in opulent neighbourhoods beyond the reach of someone living on a government salary.

One senior government official said: "Some of the top scientists and people associated with the country's nuclear programme appear to be living beyond their means. We do not know whether they have accumulated this wealth by illegally siphoning off funds from the KRL budget, or by obtaining money in exchange for transferring nuclear expertise."

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Prateek » 25 Jan 2004 05:52

Nuclear Inquiry Heightens Divisions Within Pakistan

Nuclear Inquiry Heightens Divisions Within Pakistan
By DAVID ROHDE

Published: January 25, 2004

KARACHI, Pakistan, Jan. 24 — Over the next several days, Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, is expected to impugn members of a revered group central to Pakistan's national pride — the nuclear scientists who built the atomic bombs that deter its neighbor and rival India.

Taking such a step is expected to be among the most treacherous tasks General Musharraf has faced since reversing Pakistan's support for the Taliban in September 2001 and becoming an American ally in the campaign against terrorism.

The general, who seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999, is expected to announce that a handful of Pakistani nuclear scientists — a group long considered the pride of the nation — sold nuclear technology to Iran in the late 1980's without government permission. On Friday, General Musharraf said that "some individuals" appeared to have been involved in the transfer of technology, but he did not give names.

General Musharraf is also expected to say the scientists acted without the knowledge of Pakistan's famed and feared military intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence.

On Friday, General Musharraf said that "some individuals" appeared to have been involved in the transfer of technology for personal gain, but he did not give names.

The problem for the general is that few people are likely to believe him. And if he files criminal charges against the revered scientist at the center of suspicion, Abdul Qadeer Khan, considered the father of the Pakistani atomic bomb, he could open himself to a political savaging from Islamist and secular political opponents.

In addition to involving issues at the heart of Pakistan's self-image, the situation highlights the central split that has festered in Pakistani society since the country's birth in 1947 — civilians versus soldiers.

[color=red size=+1]"The biggest question is how these nuclear scientists could do this without the government and the intelligence knowing," said Rasul Baksh Rais, a Pakistani political analyst and professor. "Generally, the people I speak to are skeptical."</font>

When General Musharraf, or one of his top aides, makes the announcement, his opponents will be watching to see whether the generals walk free and the low-level scientists pay.

The investigation, to date, centers on three men, according to interviews with government officials and news media reports.

Pakistani investigators have concluded that Dr. Khan and an aide, Dr. Muhammad Farooq, shared technology with Iran, The Washington Post reported Saturday. A senior Pakistani official said Saturday that the investigation was continuing and no conclusions had been reached.

Circumstantial evidence exists that Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg, the commander of the Pakistani army at the time, at least tacitly approved of such transfers. Senior Pakistani officials have said that Dr. Khan has told investigators that General Beg approved the transfer of technology to Iran. Former government officials have said that General Beg proposed forming a strategic alliance with Iran and, according to one account, selling it nuclear technology.

In an interview in November, General Beg denied transferring technology to Iran. Dr. Khan made the same denial through associates. Relatives of Dr. Farooq insist that he would never have acted without government permission.

Political opponents of General Musharraf predict that General Beg and Dr. Khan will go unpunished. General Musharraf, they say, must maintain the loyalty of the army, his main power base, at all costs. Prosecuting Dr. Khan, a national hero would be politically too dangerous.

The way the investigation has been conducted reflects bias, they say. Dr. Farooq has been detained and has not contacted his family since Nov. 22, his relatives said. Dr. Khan has been repeatedly questioned but not detained, a senior official said. General Beg has not been questioned.

The three men could not be more different. Dr. Khan, tall and voluble, is aggressive, wealthy and publicity hungry, associates say. They describe him as a proud "techno-nationalist" who dismissed American nonproliferation efforts as an attempt by a small group of wealthy, white countries to keep atomic weapons for themselves.

General Beg, burly and soft-spoken, is viewed as somewhat eccentric. Since retiring from the army, he has run a nonprofit group called Friends — Foundation for Research on International Development and Security — and has published hard-line Islamist articles. "The Muslim World is facing unprecedented oppression and injustice because their struggle for liberation has been labeled as terrorism," he wrote in an article last November.

Dr. Farooq, who is quiet, was described by his family as a recluse who read poetry, drove a Korean-built sedan and lived in a simple four-bedroom house with his wife and five children. But at the country's top nuclear site he held an important position: head of overseas procurement.

Mahmud Ali Durrani, a retired general and analyst, scoffed at that notion and predicted that General Musharraf would hold anyone who broke the law accountable. "The military is not a holy cow," he said.

For average Pakistanis, the scandal represents yet another disappointment. Talat Masood, a retired general and analyst, said the investigation represented the fall of another Pakistani institution — its nuclear program. In the 1990's, when democracy appeared to have taken hold in the country, two prime ministers, Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, were forced from office in disgrace.

Islamist parties are expected to play on another sentiment — that the charges have been manufactured by the United States and General Musharraf is America's lackey. Secular political parties are expected to attack any ruling on culpability, saying it is too harsh on the scientists and too easy on the generals. Both groups are expected to direct their anger and disappointment at the country's generals, not its scientists.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Prateek » 25 Jan 2004 06:01

The Nuclear Market: An Array of Vendors
By DAVID E. SANGER

Published: January 25, 2004


web page

WASHINGTON, Jan. 24 — The bluntly worded conclusion by the chief American arms inspector in Iraq, David Kay, that Saddam Hussein "got rid" of his unconventional weapons long before the Iraq invasion last year underscores a point that has become clear to intelligence experts in the past few months: President Bush moved first, and most decisively, against a country that posed a smaller proliferation risk than North Korea, Libya and Iran or even one of America's allies, Pakistan.

While Dr. Kay's team has come up largely empty-handed so far, contributing to his decision to resign on Friday, a team of American experts visiting North Korea were shown what appeared to be at least a rudimentary ability to produce plutonium — though they were not able to confirm that North Korea spent 2003 churning out new weapons.

Meanwhile, investigators crawling through Libya's newly opened nuclear weapons program have uncovered a remarkably sophisticated network of nuclear suppliers, spanning the globe from Malaysia to Dubai.

On Friday, Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, personally acknowledged what his government has slowly begun to admit over the past month: Pakistani nuclear scientists set up a nuclear bazaar that stretches back 15 years, selling sophisticated technology for enriching uranium for what General Musharraf called "personal financial gain."

In retrospect, as even some of the administration's own intelligence experts now acknowledge, each of those programs was more advanced than was Iraq's, and consequently posed a greater threat of passing weapons and technology to terrorists.

Speaking to reporters on his plane on Saturday on the way to Tbilisi, Georgia, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said that Dr. Kay's comments left open the question of whether weapons stockpiles existed in Iraq, but not the question of Saddam Hussein's abilities and intentions to produce and use such weapons. As a result, he asserted, the comments did not undercut the rationale for going to war.

Most important, Mr. Powell said, it was clear that the Iraqis were trying to exhaust their enemies, stretch out the process and have sanctions lifted so they could return to their intention of making weapons.

But the information also shows that the National Intelligence Estimate, produced in 2002 by the Central Intelligence Agency and other agencies, significantly overestimated Iraq's current abilities. The document provided the rationale for going to war quickly, without waiting for the United Nations Security Council to become convinced of the threat.

Intelligence officials now say that comparable assessments understated the progress Iran and Libya were making in enriching uranium and missed many of the signals that Pakistan's scientists had provided their designs to Iran and Libya. To this day, the intelligence agencies are arguing over what exactly the North Koreans are able to accomplish, facing a difficult task of sorting out what is boast and what is real.

Yet of all these threats, Mr. Bush determined, by his own account, that the combination of Saddam Hussein's ambitions and his potential to obtain unconventional weapons some day in the near future posed the greater threat. His critics say he was motivated by settling unfinished business; his defenders say it would have been foolish to wait, only to discover too late that Mr. Hussein could unleash hidden weapons.

Mr. Bush and his aides are still defending their warnings about mobile biological laboratories, active nuclear programs and the like. The president defended his decision all week, with no apologies but using wording that was far more hedged than the claims he made last year.

In a carefully worded assessment in his State of the Union address, he said Dr. Kay's group had found evidence of "W.M.D.-related program activities," words drawn straight from Dr. Kay's interim report to Congress. But he avoided any mention of Dr. Kay's broader conclusions at the time, that Iraq had no active stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons, much less the chief inspector's more recent conclusion that it was highly unlikely that such stockpiles would ever be found.

Traveling the country this week, Mr. Bush made clear that he had no regrets. He told visitors to the White House that he still believed that eventually weapons of mass destruction would be found in Iraq.

In public, he told audiences in Ohio, Arizona and New Mexico this week that Mr. Hussein was a "brutal dictator" who gassed his own people and set up gulags and rape rooms, and deserved the fate he met — a line that drew big applause at every stop. Mr. Bush also argued that Mr. Hussein's fall was making other nations with nuclear ambitions come clean.

"Nine months of intense discussion with Qaddafi worked because the word of this country matters," Mr. Bush said in Roswell, N.M., on Thursday, referring to the Libyan leader, Muammar el-Qaddafi. "When you say something, you better believe it. People now trust the word of America."

But America's allies and competitors are likely to interpret Dr. Kay's findings very differently: that America's word — or at least its intelligence findings — cannot be fully trusted.

Dr. Kay concluded, for example, that Mr. Hussein once had a very active nuclear program — before the 1991 Persian Gulf war. But along with the chemical and biological programs, it was virtually halted, it now appears, by the combination of intrusive inspections by the United Nations, sanctions that made imports of new technology extremely difficult, and Iraq's own decisions to get rid of some of its stockpiles.

"The strategy of containing Iraq appears to have been largely successful," Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, concluded in an interview late last year. "As far as we can tell, the system was working."

But Dr. ElBaradei's other conclusion is perhaps the most alarming: that while Iraq was contained, the rest of the world had turned into a "Wal-Mart of private-sector proliferation," one where many nuclear aspirants — with the notable exception of Iraq — seemed to go shopping regularly, often without detection.

Libya had not actually produced a weapon by the time Mr. Qaddafi decided to dismantle his weapons program. But what was found there has "astounded many of my colleagues," a senior American intelligence official said earlier this week. "It looks like there were factories dedicated around the world to the production of centrifuge parts," including one in Malaysia that American officials are now working to shut down. A network of middlemen, some operating in Dubai, apparently with close ties to the Pakistani scientists, operated with comparative freedom, supplying both Iran and Libya.

Mr. Bush has not ignored that network. His "Proliferation Security Initiative" has gathered more than a dozen nations in a coalition to fight trafficking in unconventional weapons.


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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby ramana » 25 Jan 2004 08:02

Quote"Officials said in 1987 former military ruler General Zia-ul-Haq had approved a longstanding request from the Iranian government for an unpublicised cooperation in peaceful nuclear programme. But Zia had specifically limited Pak-Iran nuclear technology to non-military spheres.

"Just before his death in 1988 when I told Zia about Iran’s growing interest in non-peaceful nuclear matters, he asked me to play around but not to yield anything substantial at any cost," said a top retired nuclear scientist, who asked not to be identified.

The scientist said he was aware that the Iranians were intensely pursuing the matter with General Aslam Beg, Zia’s successor, but did not know how Beg responded to the Iranian request because by that time he was not directly associated with the programme."

This must be Munir Ahmed/Akram the PAEC guy who was miffed with AQK getting all the lime light.

The centrifuge designs purloined by AQK are of two types an I did describe them in my timeline - the sub critical speed models (PAK-I) and the supercritical speed models( PAK-II). Both were tkaen from URENCO. There was no local development. The Chinese took PAK-II and developed ring magnet bearings for them. These they shipped to TSP in 1995 right after the NPT was extended in perpetuity. The Clinton Admin sanctioned them at that time.

Sarma
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Sarma » 25 Jan 2004 08:28

With all the original bunch of paki nuclear scientists either under "debriefing" or under house arrest, does this mean there is practically no new weapons R&D going on now. Are their weapons capability and numbers frozen at 1998 levels?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby Umrao » 25 Jan 2004 08:28

the nuclear scientists who built the atomic bombs that deter its neighbor and rival India.
Jokers like this should be lined up and given pink slips not even pay cuts.

The bomb was made to black mail the US and support the world terrorism.

WHat kind of bums exist in spin city?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby AJay » 25 Jan 2004 08:31

Originally posted by John Umrao:
2)The above will also help the PRC / Unkil combo get out of undue scruitiny from world.
I don't think either of them is overly worried about such a scrutiny.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 22 Jan 2004

Postby arun » 25 Jan 2004 09:11

Jang of 25 Jan.

Foreign accounts having proceeds
from N-technology transfer found

Top scientist’s contacts with Dubai-based gold trader also under probe

"By Kamran Khan

KARACHI: Foreign accounts used to deposit the proceeds from the transfer of some nuclear technology to Iran have been traced back to at least two senior nuclear scientists, high-level government sources have revealed.

These accounts were being operated through a Dubai-based bank, which has already provided the required information to Pakistani authorities, sources said.

"It is an open and shut case," said the source, "Their foreign bank accounts swelled by millions of dollars as the sensitive information and some hardware reached Iran."

For investigation and security reasons the government sources are not revealing the names of the scientists involved in the deal.

The Iranian authorities have already confirmed the information about these bank accounts that were being controlled by the suspected Pakistani nuclear scientists. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the US government also had the full details of the financial transactions that took place between the Pakistani scientists and their Iranian sources, official sources said.

In the widening investigation of the nuclear imbroglio, officials have also discovered that one of the main Dubai-based cover companies used by the Khan Research Laboratories to procure hundreds of millions dollars of equipment was being operated by a close relative of a top nuclear scientist.

Pakistani investigators have also unearthed that the same nuclear scientist held tens of millions of dollars worth of direct and indirect financial and real estate holdings in Pakistan and abroad, mostly in Dubai.

For this reason, authorities are probing the scientist’s deep relationship with a Dubai-based Pakistani bullion trader and some Karachi-based businessmen.

"It is strange that the scientist was in touch with the Dubai bullion trader on daily basis," said a source.

Officials said that the Pakistani authorities debriefed the Dubai businessman on the scientist’s activities recently.

Interestingly, the investigators have also questioned a newspaper editor in Islamabad for allegedly running a publicity campaign for which the nuclear scientist had provided funds. The government sources have said that the scientist provided money to organise seminars, publish books and posters and create other publicity material lauding the nuclear scientist.

President Pervez Musharraf was briefed about the findings of the ongoing investigation before he left for foreign tour last week, officials said.

"I have never seen the president in such agony and anger. He was devastated," informed an official who had met the president shortly after he was briefed about the outcome of the probe against the nuclear scientist.

Meanwhile, a ranking government source has disclosed that the government has instructed all ministries and departments not to invite Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan as guest to any government function.

The decision to allow Dr Qadeer to continue as an adviser to the prime minister on scientific affairs would be taken by the president on his return from Davos on Sunday.

In a related development, the government sources have further disclosed, that the authorities have reversed an earlier decision to decorate Mrs Abdul Qadeer Khan with one of the highest civil awards of Pakistan.

Informed sources have said that the investigators, aided by the statements made by Dr Qadeer’s Principal Staff Officer Major (retd) Islamul Haq, his closest confidante Dr Nazir Ahmad, brigadiers Sajawal and Tajwar, and the procurement director of the KRL have successfully reconstructed the KRL-related activities of Dr Qadeer over the last 15 years.

Now I vaguely recollect that on BR some time back it was reported that Gulf based Pakistani bullion and money traders had bailed out Pakistan from its forex crisis.

So was that the illicit proceeds of Nuclear proliferation flowing back to the Pakistani State?


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