Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 04 Feb 2004

AJay · Post by **AJay** » 06 Feb 2004 23:48

Originally posted by suryavir:
Ideally of course the Pakistani program must be completely dismantled (as Nandu says above) on grounds that Pakistan has proven, beyond a shadow of doubt, that it is reckless and irresponsible state that cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons.

Agreed. I made the earlier comment thinking that you are prescribing a solution for rolling back all programs to pre-Los Alamos. As long as India is accpted as de facto Nuke club member (because neither India nor Indians - on a personal level - have proliferated) and Pakis are punished (because private individuals - arguably with orders from the Paki govt. such as it is - have proliferated) I do not have any problem with US backed by the international community doing whatever they have to do to stop proliferation of WMD, including going to war with Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria, Saudis, Indonesia, Malaysia et al. and even the dragon.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 07 Feb 2004 00:09

i think the link is posted on page 3 but it does not work for me - tried several times.
http://www.pakistanvision.com/site/

Kumar · Post by **Kumar** » 07 Feb 2004 00:11

This is the link to the video, works fine with RealPlayer:

rtsp://live2.pibc.com:7070/pv/smil/ptvnews/president_pc_020504.smil

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 07 Feb 2004 00:26

A good summary of the compromise produced by the friction between two competing priorities; WMD risk mitigation, and preventing revolution in Pakistan.

International Inspectors zeroing in on nuclear dealers
UNI
Friday, 06 February , 2004, 21:06

London: Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's pardoning of Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan has not stopped international agencies and nuclear inspectors from probing more deeply into Khan's operations and his alleged links with the underworld for selling the nuclear weapons technology and laundering of money earned through proliferation operations.

...

The acceptance by the Americans to let Musharraf close the lid on the whole affair has, it is said, a string attached to it. Despite the display of defiance by the General that Pakistan was a sovereign state and he would not allow the UN to inspect documents relating to the nuclear programme, the IAEA has said that Pakistan authorities were cooperating with the UN watchdog. Obviously Musharraf was being defiant for domestic consumption.

In fact the US is also set, according to reports, to insist for greater control on Pakistan's nuclear weapons and the vetting of its 6000 scientists who work for its nuclear programme.

The US sees the act of pardoning the scientist as a "goodwill" gesture to save him from scrutiny and possible exposure of the involvement of his top Generals.

Nandu · Post by **Nandu** » 07 Feb 2004 00:35

Rangudu, lame is a freeware tool that can convert sound files to reasonably sized mp3 files. You can download a Windows version from here.

Rak · Post by **Rak** » 07 Feb 2004 00:46

The bottom line is that the US is setting up the stage for the Osama grab. This gesture by the US will enable Musharraf to tell his simpleton subjects that US has done them a favor by looking the otherway, and they better accomodate the US Army inside Pakistan.

It will be interesting to see if Osama's new video pops up with an apology and a pardon -- from Musharraf, as pardons are dime a dozen in Pakistan.

Mudy · Post by **Mudy** » 07 Feb 2004 00:56

- Could it be to induce India to accede to shitty bitty during the quiet period? That period is the Clinton Admin period in the US

Remember Brijesh Mishra writing pad picture, where 2 entry was CTBT, when he met Rums after meeting W.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 Feb 2004 01:11

I don't have much faith in the "we'll go easy about the nukes if you hand us Osama in fall 2004" argument. That's too simple. Too straightforward. The story doesn't end there. This isn't about just the nukes or about Osama. It doesn't answer the question of *why* the Pakis were allowed to brazenly offer nuclear technology around all this while, and particularly the strident efforts to ensure plausible deniability for the Paki establishment. The nukes and weapons in their hands are just a manifestation of what we see of what's going on.

Its not about US and Chinese being terrified of India and wanting to use Pakistan to keep us down. That's too melodramatic for me to believe. Its too strategically inclined, and the idea of two P5 powers going to such lengths motivated solely by keeping down a potential rival power is nuts. I'd rather look at this as the efforts at perpetuation of a gravy train of dirty money. Money can motivate more than strategic compulsions at times.

There's a new factor that's seldom been discussed until very recently, and that's BCCI. There's a lot about it we don't know, and I strongly feel it has a lot to do with this proliferation episode. No, it might be just what this is all about. The BCCI as such may be gone, but not what it was upto.

Div · Post by **Div** » 07 Feb 2004 01:29

//Off-topic blabber

If you've read any of the American conspiracy theorists (I had some free time a few years ago), one of the most popular allegations is that Ronald Regan 'stole' the 1980 election from Jimmy Carter on the Iranian hostage crisis. But it so happenned that the hostages were released the day Regan was sworn in...the conspiracy theorists allege that there was a deal between Bush Sr and the Iranians which then led to Iran-Contra and alot of the other mess. So it will be interesting to see how OBL is used in this presidential campaign. He is definitely up for grabs to the highest bidder.

//Off-topic blabber

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 07 Feb 2004 01:31

Suraj,

Brazil, Argentina and South Africa had active nuclear weapons programmes in the 1980s. In fact the Argentinians co-operated with the Libyans and Pakistanis in matters of procurement.

No one really wanted to Brazil, Argentina or South Africa acquire a nuclear deterrent.

But with the cold war entering its final phase I think there was a certain amount of rationalisation that action could be delayed for a few more years. This was not the sort of thing that non-proliferationists were happy about, but they simply had to live with it.

With the end of the cold war, and with the end of many conflicts and internal political reform it was possible to bring and end to many of the nuclear weapons programmes.

Pakistan was different in two major regards - the India-Pakistan confrontation was not rooted in the confrontation between communism and capitalism. So the end of superpower rivalry, and the restoration of electoral politics did nothing to convince the Pakistanis to give up the bomb voluntarily.

Pakistan unlike the other three also had the active support of countries like China and Saudi Arabia to withstand American pressure. Without their support its unlikely that Pakistan would have been able to withstand measures such as the end of American military assistance in 1989.

In the end Pakistani proliferation continued in the 1990s because Western governments were unwilling to bear the economic cost of confronting China and Saudi Arabia. There was little political and public support for war with countries like Libya, N.Korea and Iran in a period when the public beleived that they deserved a peace dividend after five decades of impending world war.

In a position of self-imposed weakness it was easier to transfer all of that frustration on to India, which had relatively few cards to play, in the hope of ultimately disamring Pakistan while still bypassing expensive confrontation with Pakistan's nuclear backers.

The attacks of September 11th forced, and continues to force changes.

jarugn · Post by **jarugn** » 07 Feb 2004 01:45

Powell wants to talk to Musharaff & Kofi calls pardon Odd!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3467219.stm

The BBC's Jon Leyne in Washington says there is scepticism that Dr Khan acted on his own and there will be private pressure from the US for its ally to provide all the facts.

On Friday, a senior Pakistani official involved with the investigation into the scandal told AFP news agency that Dr Khan could spend the rest of his life under virtual house arrest.

"It is a conditional pardon and Khan knows he would be jailed if he tries to proliferate again in any way," the official said.

More than 15 people from the nuclear enrichment facility that Dr Khan used to run, Khan Research Laboratories, are still being questioned.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 Feb 2004 01:46

Johann,

Originally posted by Johann:
Pakistan unlike the other three, had the active support of countries like China and Saudi Arabia to withstand American pressure. Without their support its unlikely that Pakistan would have been able to withstand measures such as the end of American military assistance in 1989.

What on earth do you mean by 'American pressure' ? I could quote about two dozen examples to claim why there was none beyond some bawling non-proliferation idealist.

Why would the Americans not have been able to walk right into Pakistan in the early 1990s and have them terminate their nuclear program ? They did walk in after 9/11, Chinese/Saudi 'assistance' be damned.

In a position of self-imposed weakness it was easier to transfer all of that frustration on to India, which had relatively few cards to play.

The attacks of September 11th forced, and and continues to force changes.

With all due respect, I almost visualized Billy Crystal in 'Analyze This' after that psychological assessment. I don't believe they picked on us because they couldn't find a better ass to flog. I can't quite picture the Saudis stopping oil supplies or the Chinese selling off their hoard of US treasuries because the USAF prevented AXK's 'furniture' flights to Tripoli. They could have done several other things to at least control the external proliferation of Paki nuclear technology, and its pretty obvious they didn't. And the US just picked on India in frustration while twiddling their thumbs watching planes head for Libya, Iran, NK and even ties to Iraq ? Naw, I don't believe that. They're not so powerless.

Nandu · Post by **Nandu** » 07 Feb 2004 01:50

Suraj>> They're not so powerless.

Exactly, and I don't believe they are as powerless as they now feign to be, to do more about Paki proliferation.

AJay · Post by **AJay** » 07 Feb 2004 01:51

Originally posted by Johann:
A good summary of the compromise produced by the friction between two competing priorities; WMD risk mitigation, and preventing revolution in Pakistan.

For India, these are not competing priorities. India wants both - WMD risk mitigation and a revolution in Pakistan which breaks it up into several manageable chunks. In fact such a break up of FSU has resulted in a better world as far as WMDs go with all the smaller parts of FSU signing NPT and handing the control of weapons over to US or Russia. I argue that breaking up Pakistan by US and allies would enhance world security environment enormously. In fact, Al Quolin can make a much better case at the UN and would find support (if the case is made properly) from many countries including OIC countries.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 07 Feb 2004 01:58

Johann,

I'm afraid your explanation above reads more like spin rather than the cogent analyses you are known for.

There is considerable evidence to support ndia's view that the Western non-proliferation policy did not even attempt to take India's concerns into account, while it has always been sensitive to Pakistan's irrational expectations.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 07 Feb 2004 02:04

Suraj, Rangudu

Firtly powerlessness is often self-imposed.

Secondly, war and peace are not just words. They represent completely different states of mind. It was not called the cold war for nothing.

The exercise of power is not cheap. It means taking risks. It means the wilingness to spend blood and treasure. Any democracy requires public support in order to exercise power in such a manner.

With the end of the Cold War most in the West beleived that the era of confrontation was essentially over.

Those who argued for strong measures against the PRC or the Islamists were branded hawks, people who could not adjust to 'peace'. There's a strong similarity to the 1920s and 1930s in Europe when people like Churchill were isolated.

9/11 marked the beginning of war, and public support for risk taking has similarly shifted.

What gives America power in Pakistan today? US $3b in aid, a carrier battle group in the Arabian sea, and joint task force in Afghanistan, and strong public support. Those things were not in place in 1993, and there was no public support to use such methods.

Before 9/11 Sanctions against India were cheap - much cheaper than sanctions against Saudi Arabia or the PRC.

Saudi Arabia is not merely a supplier of oil. It represents tens billions in western investment, and it in turn has invested hudreds of billions in the west.

War is the only way to persude popular democracies to make sacrifices.

Even so the degree of sacrifice depends on the intensity of the war.

India faces no danger of being overrun by Pakistan, and consequently the Indian Prime Minister only has the mandate to fight a long, slow war of attrition with occasional bursts of military action despite large numbers of deaths due to terrorism.

Public opinion in the West, even after 9/11 is not so different. If it can be helped this war will be fought like the Cold War. Through indirect means and occasionally with arms rather than like the total war of WW I and WW II.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 07 Feb 2004 02:13

OK! Everyone rest easy!

The biggest (proliferator) is now gone and so we don't have to worry about proliferation from Mr AQ Khan or his network. And this is a success for the international community,

Yes this is straight from Our SOS (C. Powell's) mouth!
Powell says nuclear ring broken

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 Feb 2004 02:19

I still see your argument as a case of drastically exaggerating the potential of punitive action from the Saudis and Chinese if the US had been more strident in their response to Pakistani proliferation. Why would they ?

To speak in terms of your description of the mindset of war and peace, the mindset of peace entails at least an attempt to perpetuate that peace, and not literally stick a rod of dynamite under you and give the matchstick to your enemy. Are you suggesting the 1990s mindset was the equivalent of "I'm sick and tired of all this fighting. I'm taking a break. I don't care if some yahoos stock up on nukes in the process. I'll worry about it later" ?

Why, despite years of knowledge of Pakistan's covert attempts to both build its own arsenal and sell to everyone who waved a dollar or a dong-less in their face, did Pakistan not face stiffer sanctions or efforts at preventing the spread ? Isn't that bizarre ? Land on India/Pakistan like a ton of bricks (from our perspective) for exploding nukes we were known to have, but sit back while they proliferate elsewhere because of a perceived fear of Saudi/Chinese retaliation ? I simply cannot fathom why such a fear would be so dominant as to cause the level of proliferation it did. You don't even need to start a war against KSA or PRC, just keep the lid on the spread. But that didn't happen either.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 07 Feb 2004 02:34

Suraj,

Why were England and France unwilling to attack Hitler when he began re-armament, when Germany was weak?

Why was so little done to aid the White Russians in their civil war against the Bolsheviks, despite widespread fear and loathing of communism in the West?

How was COMINTERN able to recruit so many of the best and brightest under the very noses of authorities for 25 years, while their agents rose to prominence in every sector of government and society? How did people like Kim Philby spy for so long, and why did ordinary socialists have to pay the price for it?

Because when you are tired or self-absorbed, problems can seem so big that its easier to just do the minimum and go through the motions. There just wasnt public support to do more, to do anything even remotely expensive.

If India and Pakistan had tested in secrecy and issued denials, however ridiculous, it is quite likely that most of the public condemnation and many of the sanctions would have failed to materialise.

Much of the furore after the tests did not reflect a change in threat environment, but the exposure of the embarassing gap between the theoretical importance attached to non-proliferation by political leaders and the public, and what they were actually willing to spend on the problem.

abrahavt · Post by **abrahavt** » 07 Feb 2004 02:40

The biggest (proliferator) is now gone and so we don't have to worry about proliferation from Mr AQ Khan or his network. And this is a success for the international community,

What about the second biggest proloferatyor the Paki Army. They are still around. What are you doing about it Mr. Powell?

Vivek_A · Post by **Vivek_A** » 07 Feb 2004 03:06

This more than makes up for the lack of jalebis:
Paki nut has a persecution complex.

<a href="http://www.nation.com.pk/daily/Feb-2004 ... .asp">21st century Jews </a>

ABIDULLAH JAN
From Pakistanis' interest in TV dramas produced abroad to the their topping the list of refugees in Canada and swearing on the Holy Quran to support their lies about problems in Pakistan, are but just some signs of the deep malady forcing Pakistanis to sacrifice almost anything for living in the West.
Canada is issuing Permanent Resident Cards to immigrants. They would not be able to travel without these cards. Poor immigrants came to know recently that the optical strips in resident cards would be holding some 1,500 pages of information on the card holder.
A resident card could itself become a one way ticket to Guantanamo Bay if anything is slightly mistaken in case of a Muslim card holder. Moreover, the card holder would never know what information he is carrying with him on his card. In another development, Canada customs officers have joined their U.S. counterparts in the coding of international passengers arriving at airports for security checks. Customs agents will soon be assigning passengers numbers from one to 10 based on the security threat they pose. There is no doubt as to who will end up at number 10.
Even in the absence of passengers' coding, a lady, who is Canadian citizen for close to 20 years, after her visit to Pakistan asked the author not to e-mail her Islam-related articles anymore. The reason of her fear is the way she was treated by security officials at Frankfurt Airport while travelling back to Canada. Imagine Muslims' travelling around the world after a few years from now, when avoiding Islam-related articles would not be able to save their skin
From now on, Islam is both an identity and a crime. It makes a person's citizenship and his rights totally irrelevant. The so-called racial profiling in the US is nothing but a refined term for pure racism. The US Supreme Court has legalised detention of thousands of Muslims on mere suspicion.
Muslims are on the chopping block. The time is not far away when they get a treatment worse than the Jews met in the last century. Muslims have become Jews of 21st century. A look at Musharraf and Mubarak at the top, Manji and other kufr-justifying moderates in the middle and the money-maniacs lying and swearing on the Holy Quran at the bottom is enough to conclude that Muslims are not victims. They are responsible for turning themselves into Jews of the 21st century.

UN-frikking-believable: This guy has been given refuge by canuckistan because mushy's goons visited him at night.

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 07 Feb 2004 03:42

Rogue country

vsunder · Post by **vsunder** » 07 Feb 2004 04:07

Johann: I completely disagree. You cannot test in "secrecy". Seismic waves are completely different for earthquakes and nuclear explosions.
I have made this completely clear on many occasions, things like m_b/m_s plots and other data are a dead give away. If the explosion is above the detectable threshold you will be caught. Some of my old posts are archived on this point. The only "denial" route is to claim the explosions as a PNE, peaceful nuclear explosion. See my article in the Monitor this month as to what does and does not constitute an explosion whose purpose is to carve out a crater with maximal size( a PNE) with no release of noxious products. Pokaran-1, 1974 was set up as to carve out a crater with maximum size so that India could claim it was for leaching out minerals etc. But sanctions were still applied, nobody bought the argument of a PNE, which was a fig leaf anyhow. I think if anybody wants to join an elitist club then there will be always tremendous impediments and it is clear that with increasing economic clout matters are more in favor. In 1974 the economic power of India was weak, it was detrimental on two counts, India could not hope to test again and buckled under sanctions.
An economically strong India then would not have waited another 25 years to test again.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 07 Feb 2004 04:40

V Sunder,

You may remember the controversy in the late 1970s regarding the flash 'event' off the coast of South Africa in the Indian Ocean recorded by an American satellite. The results were essentially written off as an equipment malfunction despite evidence of a small Israeli-South African test.

Of course in 1998 the seismic results would have been harder to ignore, but without official Indian claims I think that is exactly what many would have attempted to do. Instead they have settled for the next best thing, sharply downplaying the yield of the devices.

I'm not suggesting that secrecy or Israeli style 'opacity' was necessarily a course of action in India's interests, only that due to the peculiarities of the time much of the rest of the world would have had an incentive to participate in such a charade, in spite of strong scientific evidence to the contrary. Denying a nuclear test would mean avoiding awarding NWS status to India and ultimately Pakistan and any other follow on testers, and survival of the notional possibility of 'rollback' or at least 'capping'.

Guest · Post by **Guest** » 07 Feb 2004 04:50

Gola and GoP can be either:

committed to non-proliferation... and hence they're thrilled that Iran and Libya took the initiative to out these proliferation networks.

OR</li>
they are co-conspirators with AXK and are therefore irritated at Iran and Libya co-operation with the investigation.
</li>

Pick an internally-consistent story, please.

Iran, Libya role disappoints Pakistan

Ananda · Post by **Ananda** » 07 Feb 2004 04:57

So, the biggest nuclear proliferator in the world and the epicenter of world terrorism is.....an American client-state.

Instead of whining ad nauseam shouldnt we be holding the US accountable?

James Bund · Post by **James Bund** » 07 Feb 2004 05:02

America held accountable?

India has adjusted to the realities of a hostile nuclear armed Pakistan, now the rest of the world can have the same opportunity. :p

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 07 Feb 2004 05:15

Originally posted by manku thimma:
Gola and GoP can be either:

 committed to non-proliferation... and hence they're thrilled that Iran and Libya took the initiative to out these proliferation networks.

OR</li>
 they are co-conspirators with AXK and are therefore irritated at Iran and Libya co-operation with the investigation.
</li>
Pick an internally-consistent story, please.

Iran, Libya role disappoints Pakistan

C. Whether we are working towards the bomb or buckling under Western presure, we ought to be doing it together, especially since all three of us talk loud and long about our devotion to Islamic unity and brotherhood. We could have come out of this better off if we had not made separate deals.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 07 Feb 2004 06:02

Don't know if posted earler or not but .. not bad an article in TOI: Reactions to fork-tongued Gen

WASHINGTON: Does the Bush administration trust Pakistan's military ruler Pervez Musharraf? Yes. No. Maybe. Perhaps. Sometimes. Occassionally. Er. ...
The Pakistani general evokes so much mixed emotions in Washington's corridors of power that it is hard to fathom where he stands. In part, he has himself to blame for a profile of what many see as broken promises and forked-tongue utterances.

In the higher echelons of power, officials such as Secretary of State Colin Powell and his deputy Richard Armitage publicly cite his assurances ( ranging from 110 per cent to 400 per cent ) on various issues to back him.

"He is the right man in Pakistan at the right time," Armitage recently gushed about the military ruler.

But down the line, officials and analysts are not so sanguine. In fact, there is so much distrust of Musharraf and his establishment that even State Department spokesman Richard Boucher made a rare slip at his briefing.

Asked if he believed if Khan could have proliferated without official Pakistani complicity, Boucher blurted "I don't-,"

While the administration was doing its best batting for Musharraf , the general himself was busy putting his foot in the mouth in Islamabad, much to Washington's irritation and embarrassment.

According to accounts in the Pakistani press, Musharraf at his famous "pardon" press conference was at one moment castigating Khan for amassing wealth. Another moment, he was describing him as "my hero" who "is still high in the sky for me and who had "brought grace and respect to Pakistan."
"I have tried to shield Dr Khan instead of bowing to international pressure and I will continue to protect him," he told Pakistani journalists.

Musharraf's broadside against other Islamic countries which exposed Pakistan's proliferation also raised eyebrows in Washington. The general virtually accused Iran and Libya of selling Pakistan down the river and sneered at what he suggested was betrayal of the Islamic cause that Pakistan had espoused for years.

"Have you seen them (Muslim countries) who could not face any pressure and told others everything before telling us?" the News quoted him as saying in a reference to Iran and Libya ratting on Pakistan's help in nuclear matters. "We should not live in idealism. To us, Pakistan should come first. Forget everyone else."

Broadly acknowledging Khan's misdemeanours, Musharraf virtually threatened the feisty Pakistani media against implicating the Pakistani military or government, saying it will invite sanctions and risk attracting a rogue nation status.

"Stop writing this," one account described him as thundering to journalists. "You don't know what would be the result of this reckless implication of every institution in the proliferation issue...We don't need an enemy when we have immature politicians, thoughtless columnists, uncommitted scientists and pseudo-intellectual retired generals who are misguiding the people on the Kashmir and nuclear issue."

Kumar · Post by **Kumar** » 07 Feb 2004 06:11

------------------------------------------------
Mushy's Urdu press conference:
Transcripts from time range 25min-45 minute

Note: It is quite painful to translate something from Urdu which is not grammatically sound in the original itself. Many sentences appear tortured, but I guess that can't be helped.
--------------------------------------------------

This can be divided into two periods. Pre 98, post 98, covert and overt. There was a covert period during which we had to hide everything, we had to hide it from the world and move forward. What is a better way to hide something from the world, to move forward? Courage was needed, passion was needed, and intelligence was needed. Now what happened in this period? India did its own nuclear test in 74. And tilted the equilibrium of deterrence. There was equilibrium in conventional, they brought a non-conventional disequilibrium. We had to fix that.

So, in 1976, Dr. A.Q. Khan came to Pakistan. His work started in June 1976. I give its full credit to Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto sahib that he initiated this program. To maintain our deterrence level he started a program. But in 1977 July it ended! He got separated (reference to his being hanged?). In this one year other than finding a location, selecting a location, and starting the construction activity, nothing else happened. You can judge yourself in one year, here (incomprehensible part) also keep getting made. So this job was done. And during this period who was there? Mr. Bhutto was there and Mr. A.Q. Khan was there. And no one else knew. This is a good thing, a correct thing, this I am not saying that this is wrong. It was a correct method(?).

Then the period of Mr. Zia started. After 1977, and who was dealing then, now I accelerate a bit, who was dealing? Zia, president Zia, and A.Q. Khan. He was the president, he was the army chief. Two men. For seven assistants, for financial control, Mr. Ghulam Ishaq Khan perhaps used to get involved, for the finances. And one staff officer was there, Gen Zamin I think, Major General Zamin, Zamin Naqvi, he was involved. That’s all. But directly actually president and Mr. A.Q. Khan, scientists.

After that, post Zia period came, during which Mr. Ghulam Ishaq Khan became president. Then Benazir, then Nawaz Sharif, then again Benazir, again Nawaz Sharif, in this Mr. Ghulam Ishaq Khan, Mr. Leghari and Mr. Tarar (were presidents). And during this time everything, president, army chief and scientists, period. Neither government was involved nor the army was involved. Only during General Waheed’s(sp?) time, there is a (post of) director general combat development of army in GHQ, Major General (Waheed) was (that) during that time. He was included as a staff officer, since the organization had grown, to deal with it collectively a Major Genral was brought in. So that he keeps on dealing with the chief. Army was not involved. I myself was sitting in GHQ as the Director General Military operations, I was not involved, I did not know what was going on. Directly, president, army chief, director general combat development, scientific organization. No government, no army, no navy or air force.

This was the pre covert period that I have talked about. During that period this was happening. This was an excellent way to maintain secrecy, and to carry the program forward. I congratulate all the presidents, all the army chiefs, that they kept this secret. They showed determination, they demonstrated resolve, and due to Allah’s mercy they kept taking this program forward. They didn’t come under any pressure. Since it was a secretive program. I congratulate all of them.

Now, post 98, we became a nuclear state, accepted, declared. We didn’t have any need to hide anymore. Thats why I formed the national command authority, strategic plan division, army- navy-air force strategic force command was formed. Now, government’s hand is there, army’s hand is there. If something comes out now, then I am responsible. As much government is responsible, so much I am responsible. If anything happens now.

Therefore we should have it clear that the correct method during the covert period, pre 98, this sequence has gone on…covert, this..moved in a clandestine way. During which total financial autonomy, administrative autonomy, security autonomy, was held by the organization. Then, to say this that, how did it happen..? Security was under the organization itself. No one else was checking. Money, total financial, there was no external audit. Local audit, own, internal audit. And I tell you this was the correct way. Because otherwise perhaps we wouldn’t have advanced.

Therefore, I have given this so much time to it due to this reason, gentlemen, that I could prove to you, that it is absolutely true that neither the government is involved nor the govt officials are involved nor the army is involved. And given the maximum autonomy, clandestine covert operation, financial autonomy, administrative autonomy and security autonomy, everything that has happened could have happened. And this is surely what has happened. Now it can’t happen.

One more wild accusation, they say, what is this investigation, how has it been done, it hasn’t been brought up in the assembly, no one was told, it wasn’t debated upon, it hasn’t come out on TV, there haven’t been any charges that have been formulated. These is useless type of talk. Whenever there is any accusation, and that too of such a sensitive matter, then do we go and announce it on the radio? Obviously there is secrecy. Why should we tell, we are not going to tell. Since we don’t know what the facts are. So, unless I get those facts, why should I tell anyone else? Since there are such big names involved. And in any case the case hasn’t even started. Then what charges? There are no charges. The case hasn’t even started. A preliminary investigation is going on. Do we not understand this? And when the preliminary investigation was completed then FIR was lodged, now there is an FIR. And now when I made the decision, that is now, now ask me what it is. Now I will tell you. I will freely tell you.

Now I would like to give a brief background of this case. This mid 2003, IAEA inspectors had gone to Iran. Under pressure Iran allowed them, obviously. And they saw centrifuges there. They were shown those centrifuges. And they saw this that those centrifuges were Pakistani (dramatic voice), of Pakistani design. And this is correct. They had a contamination in them too, you might have read in the newspapers. It is possible those went from here itself.

After that there was pressure, full. Those whose (great) examples people used to mention here, they genuflected! We were named. Scientists were named. After that even Libya followed. Genuflecting. They stuffed boxes full of data and gave away. “Here are sir, Pakistan’s”.

In this situation, when these developments were taking place, we moved very fast. We immediately started our investigation, obviously secret, and we found that no government involvement is there. Some individuals are involved. Yes, they are involved. Completely involved. Initial enquiry has been done. Debriefing they said, I said again and again, who has come up with this term “debriefing”, lets cut this, lets call his an investigation, I don’t know from where this has come. Anyway, someone used it once, and it kept on going, now only “debriefing” is happening. In any case call it debriefing, or call it an investigation, call it an enquiry, whatever, I don’t care for the terminology. Eleven people are involved amongst whom is Dr. A.Q. Khan. Against him this whole investigation has been done. And let me tell you this also for your pleasure, that Mirza Aslam Beg and Jehangir Keramt were also debriefed.

These all investigations we ourselves have done, Pakistanis have done it. Not a single person came from outside. No coercion has been used. Unnecessary talks, this is this, this is that. All of them are sitting totally alright, healthy. There is nothing like that. Since all the evidence is documentary who can deny it? We can put it in front of their faces and say look! All, there is nothing like that (coercion), all the investigations have been completed.

Findings… unfortunate,.. all proliferation, … unfortunately,… under the supervision or orders of Dr. A.Q.

No government official, no military man, is not involved. This I tell you with full faith(?). This started in eighties, proliferation, and A.Q. Khan retired in 2001, and it ended around that time. Another thing that came out, is that a whole underworld is involved. And it makes sense, we have also made our demonstrable force, that too we haven’t been buying things openly. Obviously there is an underworld, and Pakistan should not be blamed for this. And if we look, all the atomic powers of the world in the beginning have been made with the help of the underworld. We have made it with the help of underworld, so has India. No one can pinpoint Pakistan. Underworld is there, which is there also in European countries, Asian countries, and there is a whole web, in details of which I don’t wish to go. But where there is a root in Pakistan, the fabrication is taking place in European and other countries, and Dubai is the transportation center. So this is an underworld that is functioning. It is functioning from here. Those European countries are involved, their people are involved, and Pakistanis are also involved. These are the findings.

I want to deduce this, that whoever takes this in a very light mood, that what if proliferation has happened, it has happened amongst the muslim brothers. Then one is not a muslim brother really (North Korea). And the other (proliferation) that has happened amongst the muslim brothers, lets look at the consequence of giving it to them. They didn’t ask us when they named us! So I want to say this that above all there is Pakistan. Forget all others. Don’t have erroneous ideas. If we have to be saved, if we have to bring power, and if we have to stay, stay here, then we should learn a lesson.

Now some say that we are undermining the heroes. I would like to answer this. That I have heroes too, (A.Q. Khan) is my hero too, has always been, he is even now. He is, because he has made Pakistan a great power. This Dr. A.Q. Khan has made. No one can negate this, no one can cancel this, no one can prove this wrong. This is the reality. Prestige and (incomprehensible) only this hero has given us.

But when I sit down to philosophize this issue, when we have such kinds of heroes, he is Dr. A.Q., we make them larger than life. We seat them on our heads (a phrase in Urdu meaning giving great respect). We praise them to sky. A larger than life, higher than human level. But they remain a human being. Then one feels sorry, feels sad, feels angry, feels pained, that this larger than life figure has made mistakes. Since even he is a human being like us. This is the reality. [Urdu end]

[English begin]The only question then arises “Is Pakistan important or is the hero important” (dramatic voice). Pakistan is important. My job here, number one, protect my nation. And number two, protect the honor and dignity of our hero. But I will never reverse this order. [English end]

[Urdu begin] This can’t happen that in trying to save the hero I destroy the country. I won’t do that. Whatever dangers come upon me, this can’t happen.

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 07 Feb 2004 06:18

Around 44:13 to 1:02:03

______________

44:13

Is pakistan important or the hero important. Pakistan is important. My job here is #1 protect my nation and #2 protect the honour and dignity of our hero. But I will never reverse this order. Its not possible that while saving the hero I destroy the nation. This will not happen. Even if there is some danger on myself - this will not happen. So this is the reality. This is the dilemma. This is how I spent my Eid - in this dilemma, this reality. Lets leave these matters alone for a while . What happened was that Dr AQ Sahab confessed his guilt what you watched on tv. And then people started talking about this - that somebody forced him to, to save the nation but in reality nothing like that happened. I have told you everything. What I have said is the truth. There is not a single bit of falsity in his confession. He has erred. But he is our hero. There is no pressure on us. Nobody is telling me to punish him, release him, or do this or that. NcA convenes, we sit together, we talk about it, we talk for 4 hours and then we take a decision and we work accordingly. We work to the best of our intelligence and abilities. Nobody tells us. Nobody calls us over telephone, not even once. We will do as we feel like what we decide. NCA has considered, cabinet meeting has been convened and have recommended pardon and as a president I have decided to pardon Dr AQ as he is our national hero but he has commited some errors which is unfortunate but still I have decided to pardon him. I have said something that is very lengthy.

In conclusion, ladies and gentlemen, we follow a very open media policy and we have given maximum liberty to opposition. They talk anything. But you must understand. Pakistan comes first. It is unfortunate that we bring politics into everything (zatiyat main siyasat ??) and even in sensitive issues (like nuclear) in which we discussed already what can happen, we do the same things over there too. Then when I say national interest people write it in inverted commas and say what is this guy talking about "national interest", "national interest". If we dont understand this much that what is national interest - that my friend if you prove that this proliferation has been done by govt and military then what will happen is that we will become a rogue state and get sanctions applied. If we dont understand this then what else do we understand. One thing I would like to point out is that this is wrong. At least dont talk rubbish. In fact I would go that extent that even if this is true, you should not do this. Even then you should understand national interest. What I am trying to tell you, that Iran and Libya gave away all papers. What is happening there ? What is the media doing there ? Everything has been rolled back. Everything is finished. Tell me what is their media doing. Are they shouting ? Is the population crying ? They understand national interest.... That maybe this was in national interest and they are sitting quietly. And here even though things are alrite people are trying to falsify it and drown(harm) national interest. That is all that I have to say.

I will take questions.

Some announcer : Ladies and gentlemen may I request you to identify yourself. Please wait to be recognised.

Some bearded guy (kinda old) around 50:12 : I am saying one thing, Musharraf Saheb. In the past 4 years you have pulled the nation out of many a calamity and have taken us towards the road to progress and recently by promoting-jamhooriyat(dunno what this means) you have done such an immense favour to the quam that the quam is never going to forget. I have one question, Sir. That Dr Abdul Qadder has confessed to you and the nation and you have forgiven him but do you think this matter will come to end here ??

Musharraf : You leave that to me. At this time we have decided. NCA has decided. Cabinet has decided. That this is the decision. Now, Insha-allah, I stand between Dr AQ Sahib and International-Whatever-that comes. Inshaallah nothing will happen.

Simon Somebody from Reuters.. around 51:59 : You told us that no military officials were involved. But many people remain to be convinced about this fact. And there are 3 things that Pakistan might be asked to do to convince people that this is indeed the case. One of those would be to hand over all of the documents to the IAEA and give them all of the evidence. The second which is being asked by some pakistani politician (Mush seen writing some notes down) is a full independent investigation into this which looks into the military's role. And the third thing which is being asked for in an editorial in washington post is for pakistan to submit to UN supervision of its weapons program. I would ask you if any of those, how you would respond to any of those three suggestions to convince those of that the military is indeed not involved.

Musharraf : Negative to all the three of them. We dont do that. (looks pretty p1ssed). We are an independent nation. Nobody comes in and checks our things. We check them ourselves. There are europeans involved. Have you gone and asked them ? That the same thing should be done there also. That they should submit their documents. That the govt should come forward and get the united nations there. Have you asked them this ? This is a soverign country (pumping fists) . Nobody, no document will be given. No independent investigations will take place here and we will not have the united nations coming in here but if anyone in the IAEA wants to come here and ask us and come and discuss what else have we found and investigate it by all means we are open and we will tell them everything. And let me also say you should see what the US is saying, what other countries are saying , leave the media aside and see their official comments. So certainly all these countries have found out, they have investigated , they have investigated the underworld. Everyone is at the moment investigating the underworld and we know the reality and they know the reality. They know that the govt is not involved. They know that the military is not involved. And that is enough for us. It is the media who is saying whatever you are saying.

Around 54:27

Another old spectacled guy : The rest of the 10 involved, in this proliferation, that they had done all this on Dr Khan's orders, is their fate decided or is yet to be decided.

Musharraf : First of all, we had to do the toughest job, which we have concluded. We have yet to decide on the others. But I do want to say that I am seeing their relatives - they appear on TV and cry and I also know that many politicians are backing them up and these politicians enfuriate them . Nobody should pressurise us. Ek to choree , doosra sinaajoree. (Roughly -> robbing and then chest-thumping ?). I would like to tell the relatives of these people who might be listening right now. First you should ask you father and your brother that when they were out to sell pakistan and put pakistan in this mess - where were they. Is that their character ? Go and ask your father or brother. And as to what are we going to do with them, we will make a decision on that . It needs some though. Its not such a simple matter. Because we have accepted Dr Sahab's mercy petition . We will have to see what should be done to them. But we will take a realistic stand and whatever govt decides we will have to do. So far we have not decided. But the politicians behind them should really get their act together (baaz aa janaa chahiye).

Around 56:16

Questioner : My name is Salim Bukhari and I am editor of "News" newspaper. Sir, the concern you have told us about regarding pakistan , there cannot be 2 opinions on that (kinda like no question about that) but for common people, those who also feel for pakistan the nation, is that the investigation you are doing - wont those things be used against us as evidence. The people who I have talked to say that today the US is stuck in Afghanistan and so they are taking all of this a little easily but are there any guarantees, if the words are bad please forgive me, have you considered things in that direction or not.

Musharraf (57:09) : No I wont mind at all. Just got a little sentimiental . But you can ask. Look, at this time we are facing 4 kinds of misperceptions, 4 very strong negative perceptions, that whatever is happening in afghanistan is from here, kashmir, internally we are extremists and fundamentalists. If we dont address these perceptions as I have already said then due to any reason , then people are just looking for excuses, excuses to catch us and squeeze us. You will hand over the excuse to them. That is the reason I am saying that if we walk on the right path then nobody is asking us to stop anything.. Nothing is happening. We just have to tell the world that we are a responsible state. We are against terrorism. We dont want Al Qaeda and Taliban here . We are going to go against them . And we are firm against them . We are looking for a resolution on Kashmir in a peaceful manner which is happening right now. Our society is moderate. Its not an extremist and toleratant(freudian slip?) society. If we just do this , Inshallah nobody is going to do anything to us. Otherwise there is the danger, the one you are talking about.

Questioner (Around 58:48) : Mr President Mujahid Brelvi (?). Sir you said that whatever has been going on. Dr Khan on the peopl under his supervision have been doing - this question keeps rising in many people's minds that our (intelligence) institutions have been strong. Even keep and eye on political activities. Even our state is not a banana republic but whatever has been happening - Dr Khan and his 11 accomplices have been doing - Why did these institutions keep their eyes closed . Arent they responsible also ? And if they are then should we investigate them just as you said Mirza Aslam Beg and Jahangir Karamat have been investigated. The other heads of agencies - are we going to question them ?

Musharraf (59:36) : You are absolutely right. There are definitely going to be doubts in people's minds. I completely agree that people are going to doubt but I did give a pretty lengthy explanation about this but I am going to give you another one at a different angle so that you understand. Thing is that there is this organisation, for example KRL, it was Dr Khan's org. There is work going on there. What is the security like ? One retired soldier or brigadier goes there and he gets to be in command over there. He reports to him (Dr Khan). He is indebted to him . He gets paid by him . He is going to get promoted by him. After retirement or service , its there that he is going to get a job. Thats one thing. Second thing. If I am a boss of some place and I am taking something away from there then is a guard going to check me out ? Would anybody even dare to check my car ? Thats the other thing. Third thing is that this knowledge that we are talking about - this is design. It can be done on this piece of paper. Put that in your pocket and go. How much is a centrifuge's design. Just this much (extends his hand, shows how long) piece of paper. He will say take this piece of paper. And how big is a nuke design. I can write it down on a piece of paper. Its in my computer. Its in my mind. How are you going to check that. Its not a plane-load. If something is in my mind and if I go and tell somebody then who is going to check. How is ISI going to know. Its on a piece of paper, computer , in my mind and on top of that the person is in charge. So this is what happened. And nobody was involved with him. Absolutely. This is our finding. And we have told this after investigating everybody. And if somebody was involved then we would have taken them to task.

(Around 1:02:03)

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 07 Feb 2004 06:28

One of many whoppers from Mushy:

And if we look, all the atomic powers of the world in the beginning have been made with the help of the underworld. We have made it with the help of underworld, so has India. No one can pinpoint Pakistan. Underworld is there, which is there also in European countries, Asian countries, and there is a whole web, in details of which I don’t wish to go.

Is "underworld" the same as Dawood I Kaskar??

Prateek · Post by **Prateek** » 07 Feb 2004 06:33

Western Press Review: Pakistan's Nuclear 'Bombshell,' The Standoff In Tehran And NATO's Rising Ambitions

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Feb 2004 06:59

Originally posted by AJay:

Originally posted by Johann:
A good summary of the compromise produced by the friction between two competing priorities; WMD risk mitigation, and preventing revolution in Pakistan.
For India, these are not competing priorities. India wants both - WMD risk mitigation and a revolution in Pakistan which breaks it up into several manageable chunks.

Actually AJay "No revolution" in Pakistan may not be such a bad idea. No revolution means that Pakistan continues with its oligarchy in power.

This oligarchy:

1)Lost Bangladesh and "pardoned" each other for the loss and blamed India

2)have allowed Pakistan to sink into a nation whose population is growing fast and education is not keeping up

3) have ensured that education is mostly from 40,000 madrassas of which 40 are "registered"

4)were the military wing of the Taliban, and they pulled back into Pakistan after 9-11

5)Proliferated, made billions, and then put all the blame on Xerox Khan and then "pardoned" him

The oligarchy in Pakistan are a self serving lot and it may be OK for them to hold on to power - as long as they do not get great weapon systems from the US. The oligarchy can be "bought" and GUBOed.

As for the population of Pakistan - fck them - who is bothered - let them rot. Of course we will see a continuous stream of terrorists from Pakistan, but we can handle that - and that may be better than a host of "moderate fragments of Pakistan" fighting and sending refugees into India. Each fargment of Pakistan will hate India as much as the whole and each may GUBO to some power or the other in exchange for arms and anti-India propagandu.

Let Pakistan stew and cook further under the same oligarchy. Let there be no revoultion for some more time. The revolution is happening anyway - at the rate of 8000 Pakistanis being born per day. Islamic fundamentalism thrives under these conditions and it is worth seeing Pakistan go the whole hog and become overtly fundoo rather than the covert "anti-India only" Islamic fundamentalism they have had for 56 years.

Tim · Post by **Tim** » 07 Feb 2004 07:08

Once the translation is done, would it be possible to compile it and transfer it either to a separate thread or an archive folder? It's a valuable resource.

shynee · Post by **shynee** » 07 Feb 2004 07:24

Not sure if this is posted.
----------------------------------------

Pakistan not accountable for npt obligation: IAEA
ISLAMABAD (Nawa-i-Waqt Report) - Apex world body on nuclear affairs, International Atomic Energy Agency has termed the security concerns of some countries root cause of nuclear proliferation and suggested a four tire formula to cope with this problem. IAEA demanded the developed countries to exert greater export control over their countries and middlemen to curtail black market thought to be helping countries with clandestine nuclear weapon programmes. Mr Mark Gwozdecky, spokesman and head of IAEA Public affairs division, expressed these views. Through a special contact he gave written answers to the queries of this correspondent with reference of debriefing of scientists and officials of KRL.
Spokesman was of the firm opinion that eradication of menace of nuclear proliferation requires the concentrated and collective efforts by international community.

Improved inspection regime is first proposal of four-tire formula which spokesman suggested to stop the clandestine nuclear programmes. He asked all the countries to sign the Additional Protocols to NPT so that our inspectors have the necessary authority to conduct credible inspection. These protocols are specially designed to bridge the gap between primary and comprehensive safeguards of IAEA in 1997.
“Better export controls”, is the second proposal in which he referred to world black market and underlined the dire need to exercise greater export control over companies and individuals so as they cannot supply the prohibited technologies and equipments.

Thirdly he mentioned that security concern of some countries is one of main causes which drive them towards WMD, and pursue them from acquisition of weapons of mass destruction.
Fourthly, he pointed out the nuclear stockpiles of big powers and non-adherence by them to NPT, acts as a motivation for other countries to get the lethal weapons.

To a query, he said that Pakistan and some other countries that have not signed any agreement of nuclear proliferation are not legally accountable for treaty obligation. Political and moral obligations are a different matter but do not have enforcement mechanisms”.

He refused to answer that what sort of concern IAEA showed to Pakistan and said that these questions pertain to ongoing inquiries which are confidential.

Highly placed sources disclosed that Mohammad El Baradei, Director General of IAEA had already suggested to Mr Pervez Butt, Chairman Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission that Pakistan should sign the Additional Protocol, when they met in Vienna, early last year. While returned home, Chairman PAEC during a special convened meeting informed the top scientists of his institution about IAEA suggestion and sought their opinion. Photocopies of text of these protocols were also circulated among them. In a second review meeting all participants not only strongly opposed even to consider the signing of the Additional Protocol but also said that it would be tantamount to gradually open up all the nuclear installations of country to IAEA including R&D facilities.
Additional Protocols are specially designed to strengthen the effectiveness of safeguards system of IAEA as a contribution to Global non-proliferation activities. Additional Protocol requires States to provide an expanded declaration of their nuclear activities and grant the agency broader rights of access to its nuclear sites.
According to the conditionalties of agreement, States conceding to these documents are bound to provide IAEA with comprehensive and wide variety of information about their nuclear programme and other nuclear related non nuclear activities. Generally this includes Information specifying the uranium mines, annual production of uranium, concentration plants, conversion of nuclear materials, enrichment of uranium, nuclear fuel fabrication, reactors, critical facilities and resources of re-processing.
State will be responsible to issue the, multiple, re-entry or transit visa not more than a period of one month to enable the inspectors of IAEA for any sort of inspection and visual observation, collection of environmental samples, detection of radiation and measurement of devices.
Accepting the Additional Protocols would obviously mean that the country’s all nuclear installations, ranging from uranium mining to fuel fabrication, processing, re-processing, reactors, enrichment plants and R&D facilities will be open to IAEA inspections on shortest notice.
It may be mentioned that on December 18 Iran has signed the Additional Protocol to its NPT safeguards agreement granting agency inspectors great authority in verifying country’s nuclear programme.
While United State signed an Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement in 1998, but has not yet ratified it. President George W. Bush transmitted the protocol to Senate for its advice and consent on May 9, 2002

URL

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Looks like Pukes are on the way to signing NPT.

Kumar · Post by **Kumar** » 07 Feb 2004 07:43

Mushy uses a very weird logic.

He says that "individuals" like presidents, army chiefs and scientists may have been involved during nuclear development. But the government was not involved and the army was not involved.

Then for proliferation he says, only A.Q. Khan was responsible.

He is building up a line of reasoning

that if future investigations lead to presidents' or army chiefs' roles in proliferation, then he could still claim it as "individuals" proliferating, not the government or the army.

He appeared very self-satisfied with his logical prowess. And surprizingly Richard Boucher proved that his confidence is well placed. At least for now.

vsunder · Post by **vsunder** » 07 Feb 2004 07:46

Johann I think I understand your viewpoint.
By the way the Indian Ocean "flash" no radioactivity was ever detected right?

Now another point, after Pokaran there was a great deal of debate and emphasis in the western media as to how because of the military being in it from day 1 and knowledgeable of all facets the TSP nuclear command was already in place and the Indian one non-existent. Uneven Cohen was I think one such guy who repeated this on all programs but there were others who praised the command system sky high. Who were these people I dont remember, time to ask them some "expert" opinions now, they are caught both ways like a fork in chess.

Alok Niranjan · Post by **Alok Niranjan** » 07 Feb 2004 07:58

Originally posted by Rajesh_G:

Some bearded guy (kinda old) around 50:12 : I am saying one thing, Musharraf Saheb. In the past 4 years you have pulled the nation out of many a calamity and have taken us towards the road to progress and recently by promoting- jamhooriyat(dunno what this means) you have done such an immense favour to the quam that the quam is never going to forget. I have one question, Sir. That Dr Abdul Qadder has confessed to you and the nation and you have forgiven him but do you think this matter will come to end here ??

jamhooriayat = democracy

off topic, but here is Iqbal's take on democracy:

Jumhooriat ek tarz-i-hukumat hai ke jis main

Bundon ko gina kartey hain, tola nahin kartey

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Feb 2004 08:03

Nuclear Noose around Pakistan's Neck - Pervez Hoodbhoy.
Some nuggets:

Qazi Hussain Ahmad, leader of the Jamaat-e-Islami, called for Khan's exoneration even if he "has made millions of dollars, because he has saved Pakistan."
Having developed the bomb, Pakistan needed missiles to deliver them. North Korea was willing to supply them, for a price. Like the Dutch centrifuges, all Kahuta had to do was put them together and stick a star and crescent on them.