Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 04 Feb 2004

Sarma · Post by **Sarma** » 07 Feb 2004 21:03

Mehmoud Ahmed is not only free but also heads a Fauji Fertilizer complany or some army concern like that (probably Fauji Cereals).

So, not for a moment should America kid itself that Musharraf is their saviour.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 07 Feb 2004 21:05

Yes, Its an unfortunate thing. I said that, these military philosophers, I would call them pseudo-intellectuals, they want to come in the limelight. You know the names, there are 2-3 people (almost a giggle). Now…, I have also absolutely heard it (the interview). Now…, I will ask you to challenge them. The first thing is, if you reduced the enrichment from 95% to 5% and if you asked (permission) Benazir, he said, Benazir and he had decided, the two decided this together. 4 four things they said. 1,2,3, 4 and 4th was this one. Actually roll back, this is rollback. What else is rollback? If you haven’t reached minimum deterrence level and you end enrichement, you have stopped your nuclear development. This is called rollback. I would like to ask him and Benazir Sahiba both, in my opinion the whole nation should ask them, why did you rollback at that time? Under what pressure?

Folks you see this bickering between the COAS about the past actions of the govt. There is a deepening rift which is anyway present.

But this may be a critical time which the entire nation is seeing.

Rak · Post by **Rak** » 07 Feb 2004 21:18

Confronting the Nuclear Threat America Didn't Want to Be True

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 07 Feb 2004 21:23

Ashok:

The last 11 minutes of the transcript (from 1:25 onwards) seems to have got deleted in your post. Could you please update that?

Kumar · Post by **Kumar** » 07 Feb 2004 21:25

Sridhar,

I just noticed that too. It has been updated. Thanks.

laxmibai · Post by **laxmibai** » 07 Feb 2004 21:51

Re translation of Mushy's press conference:
Amazing effort. Great job, folks!

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 07 Feb 2004 22:07

Hi,

To all those of you who were involved in the translation efforts, a very big thanks.

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 07 Feb 2004 22:07

"Look, it seems Machiavellian, but it is Machiavelli with a purpose,'' said George Perkovich, a Pakistan expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "It's worth it if you are secretly getting enough cooperation from the Pakistanis to map the entire enterprise and roll it up. But there's always the possibility that you are being played by Pakistan: that they will give you just enough information to keep the money flowing, but not enough to root out the real problem.''

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Feb 2004 22:09

Apparently an FIR against AXK had been filed by the Security Director of KRL. It is now "sealed" (whatever that means). Obvious pressure tactics.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Feb 2004 22:15

Irfan Hussein's take.

The problem is that more and more Pakistan is viewed as an irresponsible state that cannot be trusted with an atomic arsenal. And after this latest example of cupidity and dissembling at the highest level, who can blame our critics?

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 07 Feb 2004 22:18

Originally posted by Sridhar:
Nobody (I mean in the international press) at all is asking (yet) how the nukes for missiles deal with Korea fits in with the whole charade about 'proliferation for greed' and the A.Q.Khan's 'personal network' with no Govt. involvement. What about the C130s? If the world is beginning to forget these things, it is our job to remind them. To keep reminding them. To demonstrate the hollowness of this entire charade, in which the Governments of US and UK are shamelessly involved.

The whole thing is bing tamasha its circus orchestrated by unkil, with out unkils wink nod nod nothing would happen.

The biigest joke is the front line allie is itself on the front line of threatening innocent American GIs life.

Its time for the jones of the world come swinging after the real threats.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 Feb 2004 22:44

The most frequently dished out reasons for handling Mush with kid gloves are:
a) 'Co-operation' in A'stan
b) Apres moi, la deluge. In other words, the feared Islamist takeover that is so scary to US.

Now, co-operation in Afghanistan has been sporadic at best, mostly upon significant arm-twisting.

I'm not about to believe that an Islamist takeover will significantly increase the perceived threat to India from Paki nukes (if any), since the Islamist dream would be to 'get back India', not destroy it.

Regardless of the past case of the Iranian revolution, I wonder if the intense US fear about the Paki army/ISI no longer calling the shots has less to do with nukes in the hands of jihadis than with a lucrative setup for laundering dirty money going bust. The trail thus goes to the BCCI, and whatever entity plays its role now.

Yash · Post by **Yash** » 07 Feb 2004 22:58

Expecting the Bush administration to publicly recognize Pakistani perfidities is like asking him to hammer one more nail in his de-election coffin.

He and his adminstration are almost checkmated by democrats (he'd never have agreed otherwise to ask for an "intelligence lapse review") regarding Iraq.

It's fatal for us to believe that he's going to even partially rebuke pakistan govt. or Mushy, with whom he has stood shoulder to shoulder on the white house lawn or at camp david. both washington and islamabad are playign the nefarious "islamic threat" card to the hilt.

Kanu · Post by **Kanu** » 07 Feb 2004 23:06

We wont see much in reagrd to the US response to this till after the elections. Look the Americans have forgiven for now, but havent forgotten.

They will do something eventually for sure. What and when is the question!

Calvin · Post by **Calvin** » 07 Feb 2004 23:30

Folks:

The deliberate disclosure in a primetime newsmagazine about US-securing of Pakistani nukes are intended to address concerns regarding the "kid glove" treatment.

Consider the following scenario:

Pakistani nukes are still in Pakistan, but under the effective control of US forces. Its possible that this occurred in the aftermath of Parakram and was responsible for India standing down. There might also have been an element of a US threat to India to not take advantage of the situation (see: Paddy's novel). Rereading Musharraf's December 2002 comments about nuclear threats may be instructive in this regard.

Having secured these nukes, remember these are still in Pakistan. Formalizing the denudation would probably result in civil war, hence the desire to maintain the status quo. This "fact" of de-facto US control is probably known to a very small group of people. Musharraf is one of them. It is possible that Yusuf is another (hence the repeated pointers to Yusuf as the anointed one).

Now this secret pact gives the US some leverage, in that they can threaten to publicize this fact or actual remove the weapons pre-emptively - and let Pakistan go to the dogs. And currently, the US needs leverage with regard to Afghanistan, and presumably Kashmir (due to a quid pro quo that led to the India calling off the dogs of war in June/October 2002).

However, it doesn't give them a lot of leverage, in that they do not want Musharraf gone. Also, they cannot be absolutely certain that Musharraf has turned in all the nukes to them. Therefore there is a vested interest in the survivability of Musharraf. Cohen's recent comment that the key is the Establishment, not Musharraf, suggests that there are others ready to toe the US line. This may not be Yusuf, who may being set up as the fall guy to draw out the anti-Musharraf generals before the Chosen one is trotted out.

Also, remember, the US has effectively controlled Pakistani airspace since October 2001. Any C-130s leaving Pakistani airspace was traced. In fact, the initial leverage the US had with Libya was *PRECISELY* because they knew that Pakistani C-130s were flying into Tripoli.

Now, notice that AQK was not arrested until the Libyan situation broke publically. The US had been urging greater action on the Afghan front, launching its own offensive in mid December to no real success. Seeing Musharraf's unwillingness, the AQK story was broken(12/22). Musharraf attempts to gain leverage by claiming an assassination attempt (12/26). Thats when we see even more information leak out (about the finances). The Pakistanis launch an "offensive" in Afghanistan (1/8). The americans are still not happy, and Cheney reads Musharraf the riot act in Davos(1/23). Musharraf can still bolt the door by agreeing to cooperate in Afghanistan. The news of a gathering of anti-Karzai forces readying for war in the spring probably tells us why Musharraf is not ready to sell them out. On 1/28 there is the leak about a proposed "spring offensive." There may have been a fear about the nukes being removed, hence the increased alert in Islamabad (1/28-29)

At this point, Musharraf agrees to cooperate in Afghanistan. The US and Musharraf draft a plan to tie up loose ends - AQK is dismissed (1/31) and AQK who is probably not initially a party to this goes public (2/1) and is then offered the carrot of a pardon and therefore recants his allegations (2/2).

The fact that the US is still defending suggests that Musharraf is being given room to act on his promises. There is more under the "iceberg" that they can trot out at the appropriate time.

This delicate balancing act suggests that the US is getting the results it wants. There is probably more by way of "leaks" that can be made known - the Iraqi/Syrian weapons one would have a lot of leverage and presumably will occur in the aftermath of the Feb 16 meeting with India. The Indian silence is presumably due to promises made in Washington (see Sinha's most recent visit to DC). The delicate balancing might provide some insight into Shiv's thesis regarding how an assassination makes Musharraf weaker. Perhaps Musharraf has found that appearing weaker actually gains him leverage, in that there are not enough non-Islamic generals it can trust other than Musharraf (and perhaps Yusuf).

The daily whines about the US having "forgiven" Musharraf is probably misplaced. The americans are well versed in realist diplomacy and statecraft. War is diplomacy by other means can also be rephrased as Diplomacy is War (on Terror) by other means.

Look for pliability during the Feb 16 meetings with India, and for a de-surgence of the Taliban.

Does anyone know where US troops still continue to be present in the US.

laxmibai · Post by **laxmibai** » 07 Feb 2004 23:43

Re: the press conference
Mushy has a point. If the Pakistani domestic press hadn't created quite such a hullabaloo, the Libyan/Iranian revelations would have been a quiet matter between Mushy and unkil's state dept. leaving only BRites and the odd Indian columnist fuming at the sophistry of it all.

At the most, Bush would have been asked a question on Meet the Press which Bush would have parried with Mushy's "500 percent assurance"(like Powell offered Mushy's 400 percent assurance when the N. Korea story broke in 2002).

The Pakistani domestic press and its loud speculations on debriefings and rollbacks had potentially put the MMA, Urdu press and crazed jihadis on the warpath. 'Mushy sold us out on Afghanistan, Kashmir and now our herrow and his bum' would have been the rallying cry. Hence the big PR splash by Mushy.

Unfortunately for him, US newspapers are now running with the baton and will take a while to get back to podium.

Kanu · Post by **Kanu** » 07 Feb 2004 23:50

Agreed on pretty much all of your analysis.

However, wrt to India, how much longer before this ballon bursts? I mean what sort of time frame is everyone looking at before the Pakistani problem can be truly neutralized? By 2010? I dont want to be dealing with this post 2013, and I dont want to be dealing with the BD problem post 2015. By 2020 we have to be the only force in the region, the Nepalese, SL etc are welcome as long as they don't take coercive action against us. And Uncle is everywhere, we can't really keep him out of IOR.

EDIT - Whats up with the BR Monitor? Still not up! Everything fine?

Mudy · Post by **Mudy** » 08 Feb 2004 00:05

A Feb 16 meeting with India is useless now. New Indian govt. will be deciding factor. Other than chai-pani it is nothing.

Bush needs OBL before Nov election and they are banking on Mushy. I doubt Mushy will give his trump card in any cost. Now, I doubt his intelligence officers and his inner circle. His recent interview did more harm than benefit. He was able to protect China at this moment, but how long. His arrogant and defiant interview shows, some one really filled lot of air in his head.

US trump card to Pakistan will be exposing China link.

Now there are three visible power centers. Mushy+pro US Army officer+corrupt elite, ISI+Army officer+Mullah+elite who despise Mushy and silent majority.

One has to watch Sept-Oct month for tap dance.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 08 Feb 2004 00:11

Originally posted by vsunder:
Johann I think I understand your viewpoint.
By the way the Indian Ocean "flash" no radioactivity was ever detected right?

Now another point, after Pokaran there was a great deal of debate and emphasis in the western media as to how because of the military being in it from day 1 and knowledgeable of all facets the TSP nuclear command was already in place and the Indian one non-existent. Uneven Cohen was I think one such guy who repeated this on all programs but there were others who praised the command system sky high. Who were these people I dont remember, time to ask them some "expert" opinions now, they are caught both ways like a fork in chess.

V Sunder,

From what I remember, in addition to the double flash there was evidence of fallout in Australia, but this was discounted by the investigative panel. There was even recorded evidence of EMP burst, something else that was also discounted. It has also been said that the full range of airborne sampling missions that could have provided corroborating evidence was not carried out.

If I remember rightly scientific opinion in the American nuclear labs largely held that a test had taken place, but the US administration was unwilling to accept that view.

In 1997 the South African Foreign Minister confirmed that a nuclear test had indeed taken place in 1979. So as I said, an attempted whitewash of a 'secret' Indian test would not have been without precedent - it would have been one of the easiest ways to reconcile a number of frequently antagonistic interests.

As for Cohen and others I'm sure they will continue to argue that they were right about accidental or unauthorised weapon use.

Calvin · Post by **Calvin** » 08 Feb 2004 00:22

We should probably not divert the focus of the thread, but the Vela incident is discussed in detail. As Johann notes, the double flash, hydroacoustic data and radioisotopes in Australia are all circumstantial evidence pointing to a possible test.

But the deliberate ignoring of the facts due to political expediency and Camp David meetings are deja vu to a lot of us.

http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/1997/nd97/nd97albright.html

AJay · Post by **AJay** » 08 Feb 2004 00:38

Originally posted by shiv:
As for the population of Pakistan - fck them - who is bothered - let them rot.

Shiv

Since this is off-topic, I will be short -

Indians should try to uplift the sorry lot (mirroring the RAPE's unneeded attention to Dalits) from under the oppression of RAPE. A perfect D&R strategy which would yield dividends to India in terms of better relations with the non-rabid populace of Sindh and Baluch at the same time creating a buffer with the rabid paki punjabis. India also can claim the moral high ground.

nachiketa · Post by **nachiketa** » 08 Feb 2004 00:48

1) The US will NOT do anything that will lead to the disapperance of Pakistan (immediately or 15 years down the line).

2) Disapperance of Pakistan essentially means it will be absorbed back into India.

3) The US has a nice foot hold in Pakistan. It can monitor nukes/airports/telephone conversations etc. There may be a small expense for this foothold now, but this foothold may be invaluable 30 years down the line when India/China will be threatening powers.

4) The main deterent to India destroying/absorbing Pakistan is the Paki Nukes. Therefore by no means will US take away these nukes and remove this deterent to India. Of course, it will control/supervise nukes, but it will always allow for the possibility that the PA gets to use the nukes (and thus India remains detered).

5) India has the option of calling this bluff. I doubt even the US will release the nukes to the PA to use them against India. Also, waiting only increases the strategic value of Pakistan for US and thus increases the chances US might release those nukes to the PA.

6) At the "forest" level the whole situation in Pakistan is a cold standoff between the US and India. Until now it was a war of thousand cuts.. now it is a war of thousand travel advisories. Just as the PA uses jihadis, the US might use the PA who in turn use jihadis.. though I strongly feel the US won't and does not need to do this right now.

6) All the minor tamashas like assasination attmpts/ Xerox Khan etc is just the "tree" level back and forth negotiations between the controlled (Pak) and the controller (US). See Calvin's post above for the idea of assasination attempts and US response by leaking nuke proliferation.

7) This whole situation is both a blessing and curse for the Pakis. It is a blessing because US will ensure that the entity called Pakistan will not be destroyed/absorbed by India. And a curse because they will never be truly independent. It is a tight rope walk for them. How far can they leverage US neccessity for the Paki nation as a strategic foothold in South Asia? What if they push too hard and the US says "What the hell.. go get absorbed by India?".

It is a tight rope walk for the US too.. What if Mushy says "What the hell.. I will make peace with India and/or get absorbed" Or if India calls their bluff and invades and absorbs Pakistan?

9) At the "leaves" level of course is the power struggle between Allah vs Army and 149.99 million vs the 0.01 million ruling class of the PA. Kashmir and jihad evil Yindoos are recurring themes at this level.

10) The game is rapidly morphing into a India vs US "cold" match from a India vs Pakistan "proxy" match.

JMT

Rak · Post by **Rak** » 08 Feb 2004 01:09

There is a solution to this wink-wink situation. India's economy has to become so strong that any decision that the government makes sends ripples throughout the global economy. If Fernandes farts, the dow has to drop a 100 points.

Ananda · Post by **Ananda** » 08 Feb 2004 01:11

From B. Raman's article:

For reasons which were never clear, Khadaffi had protected Nusrat, Benazir and her brothers the late Shah Nawaz and Murtaza after Zia overthrew Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto and sent him to the gallows. It was to Libya that they first went for protection.

Actually the reasons are very clear. The Bhuttos were close to Gaddhafi. Z.A. Bhutto admired him enormously for standing up to the West and even named a stadium in Lahore the "Muammar Gaddhafi Stadium". Any guesses on how long before that stadium is renamed?

Also, its true that Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto's mother was born a hindu and that his wife Nusrat was of iranian origin.

It was Bhutto who set the entire nuke program in motion, right after the humiliation of 1971, declaring that Pakistan would 'eat grass' if it had to but it would get nukes. He was the political father of the 'Islamic Bomb'.

So, one father of the Pak bomb was hanged and the other has been humiliated on national TV....

AJay · Post by **AJay** » 08 Feb 2004 01:26

Originally posted by arun:
So perhaps the US has not after all bought the private enterprise thesis being peddled by the Pakistani’s and much will be happening in purdah.

Any volunteers to demolish this thesis ? Or add to it.

It is almost certain that US has not bought the charade. Looks like they want to keep Mush on notice all the time by saying that they can pull the rug from under him at the time of their choosing. So, Mushy is being blackmailed big time by SD to do US's bidding without too much of a protest.

jrjrao · Post by **jrjrao** » 08 Feb 2004 01:38

Karamatullah K. Ghori ("Is Dr. Qadeer Guilty As Charged") is mad at Mush, and openly calls for the people to rise up in revolt.

While Usman Khalid ("Musharraf & Bush in Trouble because of Lies - Truth might Bail Them Out!") is well, nuts as usual. He says that the Pakis, while leaking, were only selling equipment to NPT signatories for Uranium enrichment to be used for standard "power generation", as allowed by the NPT. And if the said equipment was misused for enrichment to weapon grade by the NPT cheats, well, oops, it ain't no Paki problem.

http://www.pakistanweekly.com/Opinion.htm

Ananda · Post by **Ananda** » 08 Feb 2004 01:42

Its doubtful that the proliferation ends with Libya, Iran and North Korea. Since Saudi Arabia helped finance the nuke program where is the quid pro quo? Did they get nukes in return for their largesse?

Then there is Al Qaeda...

The citizens of the 'anglosphere' must be losing faith in their intelligence services.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 08 Feb 2004 01:55

Well Bhutto was the first to offer Qadhafi the bomb in exchange for money way back in January 1972, that's right one month after he got his ass whupped in Bangladesh. In the years that followed money was provided, and Qadhafi probably was entranced by the Bhutto rhetoric of pan-Islam. Plus, he did not like the successor of Bhutto or the manner in which he was replaced; Zia was also not loved in view of his role against the Palestinians in Jordan. Qadhafi thus probably felt a paternal interest in the Bhutto progeny.

But I don't know if this is what B. Raman is thinking about when he says for reasons that were never clear. Surely he knows all this, so he must mean a deeper reason. After all, the sort of friendship formed through such business engagements does not necessarily lead to one partner taking care of the kids of the other for years...

James Bund · Post by **James Bund** » 08 Feb 2004 02:16

Qadhafi thus probably felt a paternal interest in the Bhutto progeny.

Qadhafi, Benazir.. more like a paternity interest.

Ananda · Post by **Ananda** » 08 Feb 2004 02:23

Originally posted by JE Menon:
After all, the sort of friendship formed through such business engagements does not necessarily lead to one partner taking care of the kids of the other for years...

It is wrong to call the relationship between Bhutto and Ghaddafi a mere 'business engagement'. There was a bonding between them based on mutual admiration. Its no surprise that Gaddhafi would take care of the family of his friend after he had been hanged by someone he considered a pure villain, Zia.

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 08 Feb 2004 02:25

"BRF where tomorrow comes today, while other await it dawn"

Chiddu confirms what N guru professed.!!

"Nook Nude all the way"

Mushy ne ghanti bajaya...

Kanu · Post by **Kanu** » 08 Feb 2004 02:31

Now we just have to wait. Its like a count down to a explosion.

Just have to wait till the US is done with Pakistan now, then we get our turn! And we won't use kids gloves!!

Raahi · Post by **Raahi** » 08 Feb 2004 02:54

Originally posted by John Umrao:

US has the handle on Pak nukes: NBC
CHIDANAND RAJGHATTA

M & Co. have forfeited the "creator" now and in open. His "creation" has been forfeited prior to that behind the scene.

A cobra with his venom removed.

nachiketa · Post by **nachiketa** » 08 Feb 2004 03:00

Originally posted by John Umrao:
"BRF where tomorrow comes today, while other await it dawn"

<h3>In effect, this would mean the US has virtually taken control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal,</h3>

But with 400% gyarantee that it will be available if India tries to give muh thod jawaab.

Bhai George · Post by **Bhai George** » 08 Feb 2004 03:01

[QUOTE]Originally posted by shynee:
[QB]Interesting Iraqi angle to the proliferation episode by B.Raman

--------------------------------------------

.........Pakistani sources claim that there has been another bombshell in the admissions of guilt made by Khan's colleagues and juniors, who are still under custody and questioning. They are reported to have stated that during his over 40 visits to Dubai in the last three years, he had met Iraqi intelligence officials who sought his help in having some of the weapons of mass destruction (WMD) material of Iraq... [QB]
_-----------------------------------------------
Possible attempt by Pak to be of assistance(as they see it) to an increasingly embattled Bush administration, on the missing Iraqi WMDs. Not surprisingly, if Pak has credibility on anything, it is on matters related to sneaky deals with illicit WMDs. If you're a pariah dictator like Sadam was, who better than the world's best WMD proliferators to turn to, when you want to hide your assembled-from-stolen-parts WMD. Pak might be trying to make the best of its current image by trying to score some points. Just when you thought they couldn't stoop lower.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 08 Feb 2004 03:15

Originally posted by nachiketa:

Originally posted by John Umrao:
"In effect, this would mean the US has virtually taken control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal,

Wonder, is that also part of the agreement between US and pakistan. Pakistan would have got a guarantee to match India's conventional weapons, with american weapons.

Wonder, they might get latest blocks of F-16s/18s/JSFs.

It would be interesting to see how they are to match our might!.. good going to ruin pakis economy. Lets set the ball rolling on advanced weapons programs.

--
PS: We need to keep a lock on american supplies to pakistan. Possible locations for nuke locks.

Kanu · Post by **Kanu** » 08 Feb 2004 03:20

Paki nukes can still be used against us in a war. So things arent 100% perfect. As for any sort of arms race the Pakis have to be joking, every day the gap widens and if they try to compete it'll be a total disaster for them. Hopefully they are stupid enough to try.

laxmibai · Post by **laxmibai** » 08 Feb 2004 03:23

Originally posted by Sai Krshna:

Wonder, they might get latest blocks of F-16s/18s/JSFs.

It would be interesting to see how they are to match our might!.. good going to ruin pakis economy.

Not if it is American taxpayer money.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 08 Feb 2004 03:26

Kanu, high hopes!.. they are as good as gone man! its under american lock! <period>!!!!!

Lets celebrate!.

--------------

And for MoFu--ng statement in the history of this world. What an assasination!... this a-hole xerox khan being equated with albert einstein.

read this:
"It's like trying Charles Lindbergh or Albert Einstein and asking him to confess the mistakes that he's made," Kasuri said

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/02/07/pakistan.nuclear/index.html

==== More:

"We have done what very few countries in the world have done, and we've done it because we wish to be treated as a responsible member of the international community and a responsible nuclear weapons state."

<<<<<<<<<<

Good! and their xerox khan exactly did per this agenda!.

Pakistan is widely respected in the nuclear world!

Prof Raghu · Post by **Prof Raghu** » 08 Feb 2004 03:55

This was intended to be a serious thread with news sources or detailed analyses. One liners and other tangential issues appear out of place here. If required, you could always post in the Pak news & analysis thread. Please keep this thread, given the invaluable resources (thanks to the admirable effort of the translators and others who keep track of info from all types of sources), as clean as possible. Please do not dilue the effectiveness of this thread.

So I request either the posters or the admins to prune appropriately -- including this post.

Thanks in advance.