Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Rangudu
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Rangudu » 09 Feb 2004 07:06

More confirmation that the AXK bomb was a bust. From NY Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/09/international/africa/09WEAP.html

February 9, 2004

Libya's A-Bomb Blueprints Reveal New Tie to Pakistani

By WILLIAM J. BROAD

nvestigators have determined that the nuclear weapon blueprints found in Libya from the Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan were of his own relatively crude type of bomb — not the more advanced models that Pakistan developed and successfully tested, American and European arms experts have said in interviews.

The analysis of the blueprints, which establish a new link between Dr. Khan and the underground nuclear black market now under global scrutiny, has heartened investigators in Europe and the United States because his design is seen as less threatening in terms of the spread of nuclear weapons.

"If you had to have a design circulating around the world, we'd be worse off if it was a design other than Khan's," said an American weapons expert who is familiar with the Libyan case.

However, European and American investigators said they feared that Dr. Khan and his network of shadowy middlemen might have peddled the weapon blueprints to other nations in deals that have not yet come to light. They also said the Libyan findings gave new credence to what was apparently an attempt by Dr. Khan more than a decade ago to sell a nuclear weapon design to Iraq.

Pakistani officials have focused their recent disclosures on Dr. Khan's illicit spread of equipment to enrich uranium to produce nuclear fuel, and have said little or nothing of the blueprints for a nuclear warhead that went to Libya, which are considered more sensitive. To the amazement of inspectors, the blueprints discovered in Libya were wrapped in plastic bags from an Islamabad dry cleaner. :roll:

"The Libyans said they got it as a bonus," an official said of the plans.

The centrifuge equipment and warhead designs from Dr. Khan's laboratories in Pakistan were discovered in Libya after the country's leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, agreed to dismantle his secret nuclear program, opening it to United States and United Nations nuclear officials.

Late last month, a 747 aircraft was chartered by the United States government for the sole purpose of carrying the small box with the warhead designs from Libya to Dulles airport near Washington. They are now undergoing analysis.

The American weapons expert said Western analysts, while relieved to find that the blueprint was of Dr. Khan's design, were not overjoyed. "A bad bomb is still a nuke," he said. "It can still do pretty terrible things to your city."

Dr. Khan is known in Pakistan as the father of the Pakistani bomb or the founder of its nuclear weapons program, but Western experts say the credit is not all his. A metallurgist, he is an expert at building centrifuges — hollow metal tubes that spin very fast to enrich natural uranium in its rare U-235 isotope, which is an excellent bomb fuel. His mastery of the difficult art proved vital to Pakistan's acquiring a nuclear arsenal.

But other Pakistani scientists, Western experts said, had far greater success in turning the enriched uranium into nuclear warheads.

To develop the armaments, the American expert said, Pakistan ran "two parallel weapons programs, one good and one bad; Khan ran the bad one." Dr. Khan's weapon was inferior in terms of such as things as size, power and efficiency. The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, the nation's official authority for nuclear development, ran the more successful program.

All Pakistan's atom bombs resemble designs that China tested in the late 1960's and passed on to Pakistan decades ago, European and American experts said.
[color=blue size=0.5]Aha. AXK's Xerox copy turned out to be tissue paper, so Dragon supplied the real stuff</font>

So too, Pakistan's atom bombs all use a relatively advanced means to detonate bomb fuel known as implosion.

The weapon that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945 used a simpler detonation method known as a "gun-type system," in which conventional explosives sped a uranium projectile through a cannon barrel into a uranium target, creating a critical mass and a gargantuan blast.

By contrast, experts said, Pakistan's designs used the more advanced principle of implosion, as did the bomb dropped on Nagasaki. It works by having a sphere of conventional explosives squeeze inward to crush a ball of bomb fuel, creating the critical mass. Implosion uses much less fuel than detonations from the gun-type system, making the bombs far cheaper and lighter.


Even so, Dr. Khan's design is "vanilla flavored and very old in concept," a European weapons expert said.

Analysts said the Libyan episode gave new life to the case of a middleman claiming to represent Dr. Khan who in 1990, on the eve of the Persian Gulf war, offered to have the Pakistani help Iraq build its own nuclear weapon.

The case came to light in the mid- 1990's when United Nations inspectors came across documents relating to the middleman's offer. "He is prepared to give us project designs for a nuclear bomb," an Iraqi memo said of Dr. Khan. "The motive behind this proposal is gaining profits for him and the intermediary." But the investigators made little headway, largely because Pakistan furiously denied there had been any aid to Iraq and refused to allow Dr. Khan to be questioned.

Now, those denials have collapsed, bringing new interest. David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, said Iraqi documents, coupled with the Libyan developments, raised the possibility that Dr. Khan's network operated for more than a decade to offer atomic blueprints not only to Libya and Iraq but to countries like Iran, Syria and North Korea. Global investigators must now carefully examine that possibility, he said.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Prof Raghu » 09 Feb 2004 07:26

We are crossing an important milestone here.

Remember asking why is the US media silent on PAEC? Well, Rangudu's NYT link above indicates that that line has been breeched.

This means the screw has been tightened another notch. The key is to see how often the PAEC gets mentioned in other newspaper stories.

Does it mean that something Musharraf said in his press conference made someone in DC unhappy?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby shiv » 09 Feb 2004 07:39

Originally posted by Gerard:
"New U.S. intelligence analyses of nuclear weapons in South Asia indicates that Pakistan now has greater nuclear capability — both in terms of numbers of weapons and quality of delivery systems — than India"
An analysis to bring joy to a paki.


Dream on....
It's OK Gerard. I think it is important for indians NOT to get our H&D upset by reports that Pakistan has more and better nukes.

In fact I would now take the public position (no matter what the truth is):

"India, an emerging economy, with a wide range of techical skills, whose scientists and engineers were able to explode a nuclear bomb as early as 1974, has concentrated on human development and is now faced with an unstable neighbour, Pakistan, a nuclear weapon power, a nuclear weapon proliferator to North Korea, a terroist sponsor with a decrepit economy and an Islamist population. Pakistan has spent all its energies in building up a formidable nuclear weapon force that dwarfs India's arsenal in size and sophistication, putting peace and development of a sixth of humanity at risk"

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby ldev » 09 Feb 2004 07:46

Sriman,

At least two milestones in the NYT story:

To develop the armaments, the American expert said, Pakistan ran "two parallel weapons programs, one good and one bad; Khan ran the bad one." Dr. Khan's weapon was inferior in terms of such as things as size, power and efficiency. The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, the nation's official authority for nuclear development, ran the more successful program.
US media has acknowledged that there is more to the Pakistani nuclear story than AQK. That PAEC is the second and more successful component of the Pak program. PAEC is now out of the closet.

All Pakistan's atom bombs resemble designs that China tested in the late 1960's and passed on to Pakistan decades ago, European and American experts said.
Tying in China directly to the Pak program including PAEC.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby shiv » 09 Feb 2004 07:55

Originally posted by Ananda:
he way I look at it, there are four civilizational poles in the world: the West, Islam, India and China..
Ananda - off topic for this thread and if we must continue - perhaps we should shift it to the Islamism thread.

I am currently reading the old old book - "Clash of Civilizations" - by Sam Huntington - and I have a lot of points of disargeement with him.

I am not at all sure that there is such a thing as an "Islamic civilization" - even by Sam Huntington's definition or otherwise. Culture, religions and civilizations aare being mixed up and discussed.

Sorry - I won't digress in this thread - but I may cross post this and more thoughts in the Islamism thread.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Calvin » 09 Feb 2004 08:02

Folks: Lets not miss the forest for the trees. The even bigger story that the NYT article carries is that the americans are claiming that they know exactly what the Pakistani bomb designs developed by PAEC were. So far the actual designs that the Pakistanis putatively had were not known.

Even more interesting is that the Nagasaki weapon referenced is a Pu design requiring 6-7 kg of Pu. Now bear in mind that an implosion device can use either HEU or Pu, whereas a gun-type device can only use HEU. Additionally, the NYT article notes that the Pakistani designs were thoes of late 1960s designs. Now most of the Chinese designs in the 1960s used HEU - http://cns.miis.edu/research/china/coxrep/testlist.htm. So, it is likely that they are referring to #9 which was the only one that was a pure fission devices that was not conclusively noted to be HEU.

Since the figure of 40 weapons is now becoming widely accepted, we must ask where Pakistan got 200+ kg of Pu. Remember that Khushab has never been believed to operate at more than 40% of its 70MW capacity (Note that 70MW is a max reported capacity, typical reports are 50MW). If we assume it was operating at 70MW, it would still only generate about 10kg of Pu per year. (Mark Hibbs - http://www.nyu.edu/globalbeat/nucwatch/nucwatch071798.html) Considering it is only believed to have gone critical in 1998 they probably have 50 kg of Pu (for 5-6 bombs).

Or, we must say that the bulk of the Pakistan weapons are still the gun-type HEU devices, with a few implosion Pu weapons. In all cases it is likely that the Pakistani weapons are in the 10 -20kT range. The #4 Chinese test was a HEU device. In fact the Chinese did not test a Pu device until Test #12.

Note also the CSS2s sold to Saudi are nuke capable. Look at the picture below - do they remind you of another missile you may have seen a picture of?

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/theater/df-3ssm.jpg

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby svinayak » 09 Feb 2004 08:15

Originally posted by L Dev:
To develop the armaments, the American expert said, Pakistan ran "two parallel weapons programs, one good and one bad; Khan ran the bad one." Dr. Khan's weapon was inferior in terms of such as things as size, power and efficiency. The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, the nation's official authority for nuclear development, ran the more successful program.
US media has acknowledged that there is more to the Pakistani nuclear story than AQK. That PAEC is the second and more successful component of the Pak program. PAEC is now out of the closet.
PAEC is being protected, But the question is apart from China who are the other suppliers of technology and design to PAEC. Could it be the BCCI connection again?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Sridhar » 09 Feb 2004 08:23

Originally posted by Calvin:
Considering it is only believed to have gone critical in 1998 they probably have 50 kg of Pu (for 5-6 bombs).
How would one then account for stories of Pu traces over Chagai? If that story is accurate (and if they were not Pu traces from Pokhran as conjectured by some at that time) they have another source for Pu. Could have been the Chinese or could have been NK (Centrifuge for Nodongs+Pu instead of just Nodongs as previously thought). In any case, if they had a different source for Pu, the number of Pu devices could be anybody's guess (depending on how much they managed to acquire).

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Calvin » 09 Feb 2004 08:31

Sridhar: Its precisely because of the fact that you point out, that the Pu story was suppressed. Likely, after the May 18 tests failed, the Chinese provided a complete weapon system for testing.

David Albright says that Krypton-85 had been detected by April 2000, indicating that reprocessing had started occuring at "New Labs" next to PINSTECH. Mark Hibbs may have more on the timeline as well as capacity.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Raahi » 09 Feb 2004 08:32

Tom Brokaw reporting: From Pakistan
An exclusive interview with Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf - talking about a possible spring offensive on the Afghanistan border - and his pardon of nuclear expert AQ Kahn • NBC's Tom Brokaw reports; Nightly News Monday 02-09-04

Link Here
Exclusive: Pakistan's President Musharraf
Possible spring offensive on Afghan border; Khan's pardon
By Tom Brokaw
Anchor
NBC News

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - NBC's Tom Brokaw reports from the official residence of Pakistan’s President Musharraf where, in a wide ranging exclusive interview they talked about reports there will be a spring offensive along the Pakistan-Afghan border.

Tom Brokaw: It’s reported now in Washington that Secretary of State Powell is coming to see you before the end of the month, and one of the items on his agenda will be some kind of a spring offensive. If he says, we’d like to put more troops in Afghanistan to put more pressure on Al Qaida, would you recommend against that?

President Pervez Musharraf: No, I would support it. I have all along been saying that there is a requirement of more force. I have all along been saying that there’s a vacuum in Afghanistan which we have to fill in the countryside. So I’m for increasing strength there. That is the way forward.

TB: As long as the American troops stay on the Afghan side of the border.

PM: Yes indeed, yes indeed.

TB: Would it ever be possible for American troops to physically operate in Pakistan in the frontier region in an effort to root out terrorism?

PM: Not only is it not possible, but it’s not required. Here is no, the enemy, I am calling the Al Qaida or the Taliban abettors; they are not in such strength that a whole operation, a massive operation has to be launched. There are people, there are groups hiding in small numbers. And we have developed a very effective quick reaction force. A mobile, hard-hitting, quick reaction force. So that is what is required, and we are capable of doing all of that.

TB: Your country has been the center of a lot of news and controversy this past week because of the confession of Dr. A.Q. Khan, who was the father of the Pakistani nuclear bomb. That in fact he sold nuclear secrets to Libya, North Korea and to Iran. Were you proud of what Dr. Khan was doing?

PM: Yes. Proud of it as long as he did what he did for Pakistan.

TB: It appears to a lot of people that a deal was struck with Dr. Khan by you. That he confesses, you pardon him, and say we’re moving on. The Washington Post said this week, ‘that’s a whitewash.’ It hurts your credibility and your integrity.

PM: I disagree with it absolutely. One must understand reality. There’s an international perception. There’s a domestic perception. There’s a person involved who’s a hero because of what he’s done for us. He’s a hero—he was a hero even for me. And here’s a person who’s brought the deterrence—given us deterrence, potential in the unconventional field. So this certainly is—is a very, very sensitive issue. Now, he did something that could hurt the nation. I was in a dilemma, certainly. The dilemma is: he’s a great man, he’s a hero, and he’s a hero of every individual in the street. Yet he has done something which could bring harm to the nation. Now how do I deal with it? We had to handle it very carefully.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby kgoan » 09 Feb 2004 08:34

Calvin, not entirely. Well, maybe explicitly now, but it was implied some time back.

The NYT carried an article some time back where they said that the Pak nukes were based on the Chinese design.

In fact, the CIA even managed to obtain a copy of the plans and then *tested* the plans and confirmed that they *worked*.

IIRC, they also confirmed that it was *based* on the Chinese '64 design, if not the exact design (i.e. could be an updated or modified for a greater degree of sophistication).

Therefore, since Khans designs don't come up to scratch, then it's safe to say that the US was letting it be known that they knew the PAEC designs.

BTW: Except for the psy-ops stuff, I still see *nothing* that says that the Paks have the ability to place a warhead on a missile.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby ehsmang » 09 Feb 2004 08:39

In yesterday;s BBC Asia Today, Munir Akram ( Paki UN rep) , Karl Inderfurth and a British expert were being interviewed.

Munir Akram in response to a question tells the panel that Dr. Khan visited N.Korea 19 times to negotiate purchase of conventional weaponry!!!!!!

Karl Inderfurth said that there were concerns about Paki N programme and they will have to convince the world that they are a responsible state!!!!!

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Calvin » 09 Feb 2004 08:58

Kgoan: You're right about the #4-HEU weapon. All that stuff about the Culinary Experts actually obtaining drawings and testing such a weapon, I'd shelve. #4-HEU is supposed to be a successful weapon, according to Chinese designs and the work they put into DF1. Then why did the May 18 tests fizzle? So, either they didn't transfer the #4-HEU, or the #4-HEU didn't work.

Not that it affects the conclusions mind you.

Now, one question is whether the devices that were peddled by KRL were of the #4-HEU weapon? If, as the Americans are saying KRL was a dud program, then it suggests that either #4 was a dud (unlikely), or that #4 was ostensibly a PAEC device (likely).

This then creates some kind of conflict with the Nagasaki-Pu reference. Unless of course, the Chinese provided both #4-HEU and a Pu device.

As regards the mating question. While there is no "proof" in these matters, I'd assume it matters little considering the wholesale transfers of M-11s.

Ehsmang: Since Shiv is not here to peer into the mind of the Paki, might I suggest that a missile might be considered a conventional weapon, until it has a nuke on top of it. IN this context consider the Chinese transfer of CSS-2 (DF3) to Saudi. These were first generation nuke capable IRBMs. Also, Inderfurth is on the outside looking in.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Kuttan » 09 Feb 2004 09:16

To develop the armaments, the American expert said, Pakistan ran "two parallel weapons programs, one good and one bad; Khan ran the bad one." Dr. Khan's weapon was inferior in terms of such as things as size, power and efficiency. The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, the nation's official authority for nuclear development, ran the more successful program.

All Pakistan's atom bombs resemble designs that China tested in the late 1960's and passed on to Pakistan decades ago, European and American experts said. Aha. AXK's Xerox copy turned out to be tissue paper, so Dragon supplied the real
Proof, if ever any were needed, that the American "Intelligence" community "reports" today what N^3 News announced 2 weeks ago. :rotfl:

See post on the "parallel programs" about 2 wks ago.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby kgoan » 09 Feb 2004 09:20

Calvin:

I'd suggest elements of both. The Chinese handing over blueprints and the Paks being able to manufacture them are two entirely different things.

The thing to remember is to view the nuke stuff from an *engineering* and manufacturing angle, not a science one. At least in terms of the Paks, who have no science or engineering base worth speaking about.

Consequently, it may be more accurate to say that the Paks failed to use the Chinese blueprints to successfully manufacture the design which in turn lead to the Chinese helping out with the Pu bit.

The question about what the Paks were peddling depends on why they were doing it. If, as I think, their peddling was part of China's strategy to create a string of anti-american nuke states to "dissipate-US-strength", then it's entirely possible that it was the "4th" blueprint.

On the other hand, if the peddling was part of a Pak "Islamist" strategy whose elements we have not fully grasped, then it may have been either the Chinese or Khans blueprint.

Note: The N Korean prolif fits the "Chinese theory" version. However, the missile the Paks got in return implies something else. Nukes without delivery mechanism are as pointless as bulets without guns to fire them. But; the focus on delivery is part of the cold war structure which consisted of nuke nuclear enemies being separated by 000's of km.

In the Indo-Pak context, a bullock cart with dedicated jihadi's constitutes "credible" dleivery. So the missiles were not, strictly speaking, necessary. At least not the 1000 km ones.

Consequently, I think the Pak game plan was deeper. It remains to be seen if anything of that slips out in the current volume of articles.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Calvin » 09 Feb 2004 09:24

Kgoan: We must not get deluded into thinking that making nukes requires great deal of technology. http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/produce.htm

Just about any two bit machine shop in India has NC machines, and CNCs are very cheap today. You can probably buy a CNC from Chinese manufacturers (no questions asked) for <$25,000.

Given the quickening pace of transfers after 2001, I'd wager it had something to do with either the loss of Pakistani crown jewels, or the fear that they might lose it shortly. The transfer of missile technology was a quid-pro-quo with NK. The Chinese-angle is not unimportant as the king-pin.

I don't think that a bullock-cart-jehadi is really credible delivery, but you were pointing to the extreme to make the obvious clear. You're right that the M11 was credible enough, yet they went for the NoDong/CSS-3

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby shiv » 09 Feb 2004 09:46

Originally posted by Calvin:
Folks: Lets not miss the forest for the trees. The even bigger story that the NYT article carries is that [b]the americans are claiming that they know exactly what the Pakistani bomb designs developed by PAEC were. So far the actual designs that the Pakistanis putatively had were not known.

Even more interesting is that the Nagasaki weapon referenced is a Pu design requiring 6-7 kg of Pu. Now bear in mind that an implosion device can use either HEU or Pu, whereas a gun-type device can only use HEU. Additionally, the NYT article notes that the Pakistani d[/b]
Great post.
Any idea if the 1964 bomb design handed by China was for HEU or Pu?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Calvin » 09 Feb 2004 09:47

The 1964 design was HEU.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Kuttan » 09 Feb 2004 09:54

Howler of the Day from the well-known oiuseule Karl Inderfurth
concerns about Paki N programme and they will have to convince the world that they are a responsible state
But they ARE, Karl! Lets see, they are RESPONSIBLE for:

1. Death of over 60,000 in J&K
2. Death of over 3 million in FEPAK
3. Destruction of Afghanistan,1992-2001
4. 9/11/2002 terrorist attack
5. Nearly EVERY terrorist plot in the past 10 - 15 years.

6. Drug Trade
7. Wimmen trade
8. Now, nukes trade.

Give Peace a Chance. Destroy Pakistan


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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby laxmibai » 09 Feb 2004 11:12

According to the western media(just heard it on CNN World News eg), Mushy was confronted with loads of damning evidence and ultimatums wrt Khan and proliferation in October 2003 during this visit of Amritraj:
http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/pol/conflict/03100602.htm

Mushy had this harrowing experience in early October 2003. Does knowing this now help us put into better perspective, his apparent desperation about the January 2004 Islamabad Declaration with India ? Did India miss an opportunity to go for the jugular?

Just wondering (on the wrong thread prob).

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Bhai George » 09 Feb 2004 11:13

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1964&ncid=1964&e=1&u=/nm/20040209/india_nm/india_144016

Y. Sinha nudging the world's attention towards China. Surprisingly he also draws attention to "western world" while appearing to deflect blame on Pakistan.

Maybe he's being nice-nice. Maybe India believes it stands to gain less from turning the screws on Pak in public. Maybe we see no long term damage to Pak from this scandal. Intriguing. Qazi tries to run India down in an interview on Pak proliferation, suggesting India needs to the safety of its nukes verified by Bush, yet India plays nice.

" There are so many other countries which are running this racket and they are from the Western world and there are others ," Sinha told Reuters Television late on Sunday on the sidelines of a regional trade meeting on the southern Thai island of Phuket.

"I would like to say what it clearly demonstrates is that there is a flourishing black marKet in nuclear technology. It is not Pakistan alone which needs to be blamed for this,"

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby ehsmang » 09 Feb 2004 11:19

Pakis trying to hide in the "N blackmarket' smokescreen

On this "N blackmarket" / "N WalMart" isnt it important wether you are in it as a buyer or seller. I think Pakis were in it as Sellers and that is the problem.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby daulat » 09 Feb 2004 15:08

the psyops on pak nuke superiority is aimed for domestic US consumption. i.e. all these years the US nodded and winked at their programme to give them parity against the yevil-yindoo-soviet-client-state and was of minimal deterrent value against a larger aggressor. Now its a strong, credible (dangerous) programme that threatens our friends (some of whom are yindoo) and ourselves... [as far as we've got in the media to date and in a few weeks time we shall see...] so WE (US-of-A) will have to take them out and billy-bob in hicksville, tennessee will be damn proud of the ol' red/white/n/blue as a consequence (and vote for dubya again)

the stage is being set for the formal denuking of TSP, although it may be a soft action and not a shock-awe operation

the many news articles quoted in this thread do seem to suffer from a number of innacuracies in comparion to academic texts on this topic, so one must take them all with a pinch of salt (superior f16's and mirages, implosion devices, etc). It is enough for planning purposes to believe that Pak has a credible nuclear weapon, (but it is not sufficiently deterring to India since there is gross instability in this power balance which has to be brought to an equilibrium somehow)

I am now of the opinion that parakram was about to go-live when unkil intervened and threatened dire consequences (a la bbc situation room) to save mushy's butt. which explains paddy's pique at the moment. it would not surprise me if the exact same consequence shown in situation room was actually threatened - mushy knows this, and thought he could pull it off repeatedly, but unkil got his balls in a vice too - and mush has finally been told to get with the programme, xerox-bhai's denouement was more pressure being put on the balls

China's role becoming clear is a complex issue. Deep down, I get the feeling that China has washed its hands off Pakistan due to the ongoing jehadi problems in Xinkiang - or atleast put the thumbscrews on. It could be possible that China gave them a dud design deliberately - the paks figured this out and so when it came to missiles, they took out insurance by going the NKorean route.

putting china in the frame also serves a purpose for unkil to make them go either with or against - and for tactical purposes china may chose to go with for now

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby John_Doe » 09 Feb 2004 15:24

Uncle should promise TSP a nuclear umbrella as an incentive to lose the nukes and dismantle the infrastructure.

In the meantime India should build a sizeable ICBM force which can be used to deter Uncle in the long run when war is imposed on us by TSP. At that point Uncle will not hold out any umbrella for TSP when its own cities are at risk.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby arun » 09 Feb 2004 15:25

Carol Giacomo's article in Reuters which reported, “ American nuclear experts grouped as the "U.S. Liaison Committee" have spent millions of dollars to safeguard more than 40 weapons in Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. “, seems to have got the Pakistani’s hot under their collars.

Presumably the “nook nude” implications of the article has seeped in and triggered denials both from the Pakistani FO (Foreign Office spokesman Masood Ahmad Khan) and the ISPR :

Pak not to seek US help for protection of nuclear assets: FO

He held that no proposal is under consideration to seek help from the US to safeguarding country’s nuclear assets and installations. “ We have our own an effective security system which is very strong and modern”, he asserted
No need of US help to safeguard N-assets: ISPR

RAWALPINDI: Inter Service Public Relation (ISPR) has contradicted a news item appearing in a section of the press quoting some US official that United States has held discussion with Pakistan officials on the need for Pakistan to safeguard its technology and its nuclear material.

The spokesman terming the news as totally baseless said that Pakistan is a responsible nuclear state and is fully capable of defending its assets without any outside help.

The spokesman said that National Command Authority which was established in February 2000 has shown its complete confidence in the command and control system put in place
The particularly interesting bit is that no where in the FO and ISPR reports does it deny that this happened in the past.

Now if the US has completed its "safe guarding" task, it would logically follow that it is entirely true to say that there was no need help for (further) help, particularly if the warhead number has also been capped.

N^3 more grist for your “nook nude” mill.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby jrjrao » 09 Feb 2004 16:26

FWIW. The Telegraph, UK.

[url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=%2Fnews%2F2004%2F02%2F09%2Fwpak109.xml]Code changes 'secure' Pakistan warheads
[/url]
By David Blair in Islamabad
America has mounted a covert operation to safeguard Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and prevent warheads from falling under the control of rogue commanders or Islamist terrorists.

Teams of American specialists, deployed in Pakistan's most sensitive military sites, have formulated launch codes to prevent the unauthorised use of nuclear missiles.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby daulat » 09 Feb 2004 16:34

Originally posted by jrjrao:
FWIW. The Telegraph, UK.

[url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=%2Fnews%2F2004%2F02%2F09%2Fwpak109.xml]Code changes 'secure' Pakistan warheads
[/url]
By David Blair in Islamabad
[snip]

Teams of American specialists, deployed in Pakistan's most sensitive military sites, have formulated launch codes to prevent the unauthorised use of nuclear missiles.
so unkil is guaranteeing India's security? so next time there is a terrorist outrage, IAF smart bombs can take out 'moral & diplomatic camps' and madrassahs and that would be ok?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby jrjrao » 09 Feb 2004 16:39

Alert for those in the DC area. Is this an event happening today??

ORGANIZATION: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) holds a discussion on "Pakistan's Nuclear Proliferation Crisis."

TIME: 3 p.m.

LOCATION: CEIP, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.

CONTACT: Maura Keaney, 202-939-2372; e-mail, mkeaney@ceip.org; http://www.ceip.org

PARTICIPANTS: Pervez Hoodbhoy, physicist, Quaid-e-Azam University, Pakistan and George Perkovich, CEIP

TYPE: Discussion

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Tim » 09 Feb 2004 17:51

kgoan,

There are some suggestions in US unclassified reports from DoD about missile warhead capability. In the DoD Proliferation Threat and Response 2001 (link http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/ptr20010110.pdf) from pp. 21-29 there is a discussion of nuclear capabilities and delivery systems in India and Pakistan. It's not absolute verification, but it suggests that after Kargil, Pakistan "probably" had warheads for their missiles. That's a fairly high degree of confidence, but not certainty (which DoD might not be willing to express in an unclassified document anyway). Perusing more recent official documents, like the CIA's twice-a-year proliferation release, might give smoe more indications. You have to read between the lines a little.

Was test #4 a missile warhead? I thought I remembered seeing that somewhere - maybe even here on the forum.

Competition between KRL and PAEC may go a long way to explain why Pakistan didn't just stick with the M-11. Ghauri was available, and it allowed KRL to compete with PAEC in multiple arenas.

I'm not sure I'd read too much into the Khan design - gun-type designs are simpler, and probably LESS likely to fizzle than more complex designs. Iraq's nuclear device design was a gun-type (the one the UN found in the early 90s), IIRC. So was the South African bomb, I believe. So it's not clear that this would explain a fizzle, if there was one.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Suppiah » 09 Feb 2004 18:26

When war breaks out, the guys with the code will go back to US. With the code. Then TSP can use the nukes as paperweight :lol:

But this contradicts the nuke nude theory, doesn't it? Why protect something that is lost?

If TSP is not nuke nood, then why release this 'news' - to tell US public Bush is not as big a moron as he is suspected to be?

Or to keep up the pretence that TSP still has nukes?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby SSridhar » 09 Feb 2004 19:17

so unkil is guaranteeing India's security?
Daulat, PAL on TSP nukes does not translate into that kind of guarantee for India.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby daulat » 09 Feb 2004 19:47

Originally posted by SSridhar:
so unkil is guaranteeing India's security?
Daulat, PAL on TSP nukes does not translate into that kind of guarantee for India.
PAL needs authorisation from whom?
ultimate decision making authority + area commander + local commander + trigger man? suitable cascade of the above allowing for redundancy and first strike?

does PAL work on missile and/or warhead?

is unkil in the PAL loop? i.e. can unkil disable the nuke?

if i were unkil i'd want to do that, but i don't understand the technology - is that something unkil can do?

the big worry is that mush will undoubtedly 400% have stashed a few away for a rainy jehad day - let unkil PAL up 35 and keep 5 hidden. even say keep 2 in KSA and 1 with Hekmatyar (too risky!??!) and 2 in his merc.

maybe even xerox is keeping one safe for later use when the price is right?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Sunil » 09 Feb 2004 20:00

> PALS on Pakistani nukes, The US is guaranteeing India's security?

Hell No!!

It is making sure that some Pakistani SOB doesn't drive the blasted nuke to the outskirts of Jacobabad and set if off taking out the brigade size formation HQed there.

I cannot stress this enough - there is absolutely no room in American plans for an Indian invasion of Pakistan.

Firstly, such an invasion would completely disrupt all the counter terrorist machinery that the US has painstakingly put into place in Pakistan.

And secondly, today the Pakistanis are patched directly into Washington's deepest darkest secrets. Imagine what these Pakistanis will talk at gun point.

This tamasha over proliferation is some unique feature of US-Pak ties, and with the appropriate amount of window dressing it too can be hidden like all other uncomfortable facts in that hyphenation.

I think we need to start viewing the world through the US-Pak hyphenation and US-Pak equivalence.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Umrao » 09 Feb 2004 20:05

Folks>> All those who were in my email list ( pre 1998 BRF members), Please look for a document I am going to point to and try to super impose the same wrt Pakis and see how things pan out.

Those of you who have marked my email address as junk or blocked, please read the message, you will benefit from alook at this document. :D

TIA

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby daulat » 09 Feb 2004 20:55

phrom da Bee-Bee-Shee
India steers clear of Nuclear row

India keeping this quiet suggests the hand of Unkil urging quietness whilst Xerox is slam dunked into the bin

also BBC reports that Pak nuke probe is not over
mahadebriefananda to continue unabated

says repeatedly that the nukes are in safe hands... sheagh right!?!?! unkil's presumably? and also as an after thought, 'don't need no outside help', etc.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby suryavir » 09 Feb 2004 21:18

I think we need to start viewing the world through the US-Pak hyphenation and US-Pak equivalence.
Sunil, the US-Pakistan-India trilateral relationship is much more nuanced and far too complex to allow a categorical statement like the one above. Because of the combined nuclear- terrorism dimension to the Pakistani threat, there is an unprecedented level of cloak-and-daggers, smoke and mirrors stuff being pulled off or attempted by Unkil - some of which GOI is privy to and some not privy to. Additionally, both the US and India naturally put their self-interest ahead of the other's concern. Therefore, there is a high level of suspicion and distrust about the other's intention and the natural impulse to question the other's action even when said action may benefit both parties. To quote Winston Churchill, it's "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." Best to watch the events unfold than jumping to hasty, premature conclusions.

Added later: I am certainly not suggesting that India should repose complete faith in the US and not make its own evaluation of the best course of action. Indeed, as an Indian American I think the American policy with respect to Pakistan is too-clever-by-half and is inimical to the long term interests of both India and the US. However, that is different from saying that the US and Pakistan are, from here on onwards, hyphenated. That's my only point.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby jrjrao » 09 Feb 2004 21:32

The new issue of India Today has XeroxKhangate as its cover story. From which:
"Pakistan is lucky that this was discovered when its relations with the US are good. Otherwise, it would have been devastating for Pakistan," says Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution.

The former head of ISI, Lt-General Hamid Gul, believes "the US will exploit this situation to gain joint custody and regular inspection of Pakistan's nuclear programme to the complete satisfaction of Israel".

It is expected that Pakistan will be under pressure to repair its reputation and will have to take some confidence-building measures-relating to its nuclear set-up. In addition, a renewed thrust on running down Al-Qaida. "You will probably see a July or October surprise where some senior Taliban members will be turned in," says Cohen.
Story also says that NoKorea has so far sent 12 "Ghauri" missiles to TSP. Does Pakistan now make its own additional NoDongs?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby Sunil » 09 Feb 2004 21:46

Suryavir,

I understand why you might feel differently but I am sick to the brill of the Americans dumping Pakistani nightsoil on us. If they want to carry it on their heads that is their problem i.e. part of the `US-Pak' relationship and has nothing to do with us.

Pakistan's sale of nuclear weapons technology has nothing to do with India. The Pakistanis may have acquired nuclear weapons tech. after 1971 with India in mind, but the business like attitude with which they went about hawking the nukes tells me that the Indo-centric focus of Pakistani efforts quickly ebbed away.

Look carefully at what Musharraf is saying, nowhere is he even mentioning that A Q Khan did all this to deter India. He is saying A Q Khan gave Pakistan a credible nuclear deterrent - mind you there is no mention of India here (if anything Hamid Gul has been talking about Israel yesterday)- and whatever else A Q Khan did, Musharraf is saying he did it for other reasons which are "damaging to Pakistan" but "A Q Khan is still a hero" for Musharraf himself he is "my hero too".

And all this while the Pakistani drones in the Non Proliferation community are mouthing off stuff like " It was profit that drove this, and not Islamist fervor." etc...

The US-Pakistan equilibrium has shifted and the US is being sucked totally into a slavery to Pakistan's national interest. Given the considerable investment that US is making in keeping Pakistan engaged, from now on it will be difficult to view them as distinct entities.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 07 Feb 2004

Postby jrjrao » 09 Feb 2004 21:47

Selig Harrison writes in the Boston Globe Today:

Pakistan's nuclear loopholes
...even the sternest punishment of Khan and his cronies would only be the first step in a meaningful Pakistani effort to reassure the world that future nuclear transfers will not occur.

Islamabad has enough enriched uranium stockpiled for 52 more nuclear weapons in addition to the 48 it already deploys. To find out whether nuclear transfers have really stopped under Musharraf and whether adequate safeguards are in place to prevent the leakage of nuclear materials to terrorist groups, the United States should insist on three steps by Pakistan as a precondition for the $3 billion in new military and economic aid promised by President Bush last June.
...
...
A recent study by the University of Georgia ( :confused: any reference to this study??) shows that Pakistani export control machinery is riddled with loopholes that would make it easy for Al Qaeda sympathizers to smuggle out nuclear components and know-how.
...
...
The administration fears that a showdown with Musharraf over Pakistan's relations with North Korea might jeopardize his help in combating Al Qaeda. But there is little doubt that North Korea did get its uranium enrichment technology from Pakistan.


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