Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Vriksh
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Vriksh » 16 Feb 2004 09:16

Originally posted by Rak:
Interesting plan. I thought the ISI would use a plane crash or something like that to get rid of Khan.
that plan is a no go.. Fizzleya is already short of planes ever since Unkal gave ungli

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby arun » 16 Feb 2004 09:30

Originally posted by Rak:
Interesting plan. I thought the ISI would use a plane crash or something like that to get rid of Khan.
A plan not entirely without merit.

If he survives, it provides an inbuilt fall back of not permitting any further "debrifing" by the IAEA etc.

The Pakistani's can recoil with horror at any suggestion of putting national heroes with dodgy hearts through such rigours and the apologists in Washington can reluctantly agree that the risk of Dr. Khan dying and the resulting backlash against Gen. Musharraf is simply too high.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Victor » 16 Feb 2004 09:39

How will they get rid of the other guys who are in custody one wonders. And their families. Spontaneous combustion is my favourite but it could be anything. Also, will the insurance policy sing now or is AQK's daughter neutralized?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Rak » 16 Feb 2004 09:42

Originally posted by Victor:
How will they get rid of the other guys who are in custody one wonders. And their families. Spontaneous combustion is my favourite but it could be anything. Also, will the insurance policy sing now or is AQK's daughter neutralized?
A dead man against Musharraf, I think Musharraf will win hands down. The other guys, commit suicide upon hearing their hero's death.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Sridhar » 16 Feb 2004 09:45

Victor:

Turning this on its head - what if this is Mush's insurance policy against whatever Xerox's daughter possesses? The old man kicks the bucket unless those documents or whatever are handed over. Will said daughter prefer documents to daddy? And going by the report, it is not just daddy but mummy who may go to houriland too!

BTW, here's the original Dawn story that everybody is quoting
http://www.dawn.com/2004/02/16/top5.htm

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Victor » 16 Feb 2004 09:58

Sridhar, if she is a smart paki, she will opt to pass on seeing Daddy and Mummy again because she might catch the mysterious disease too. Not good any way we look at this. Bad.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Vriksh » 16 Feb 2004 10:03

I must have missed the BR bugle that announced the "recruitment" of AQK offspring... is this another N^3 type super investigative journalism.

Any pointers to the origin of this story

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby James Bund » 16 Feb 2004 11:51

This is where a state funeral is given to the Mohim-e-mahimahi or whatever and he later turns up in cognito in, of course, Timbuktoo.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby A_Gupta » 16 Feb 2004 16:29

Our friend Stephen P Cohen spinning and spinning away, on why we should believe that Pakistan's military didn't know what AQ Khan was doing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/16/opinion/16COHE.html

Strategically, it is unlikely that the Pakistani Army — let alone intelligence officials — would have directed Dr. Khan to sell nuclear secrets to North Korea, Libya and Iraq. Why? It is more important for Pakistan to keep good relations with China than with North Korea, and selling to North Korea certainly angered the Chinese. As for Libya and Iraq, Pakistani strategists knew that helping a Middle Eastern state acquire nuclear weapons would bring the wrath of the Israelis.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby abrahavt » 16 Feb 2004 16:42


Guest

Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Guest » 16 Feb 2004 17:17

Nuke scientist in good health : BBC

Pakistan has denied press reports that disgraced nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan has had a heart attack.
A military spokesman said doctors had examined Dr Khan over the weekend but added it had been a routine check-up.

Earlier, a report in the prestigious Pakistani newspaper Dawn had described Dr Khan's condition as critical.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Sridhar » 16 Feb 2004 17:20

Documents handed over?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Vivek_A » 16 Feb 2004 18:43

Jihad Sethi interview

Are the Americans safeguarding Pakistani nuclear installations to ensure that nuclear arms do not land in the hands of terror groups?

Let me clarify that the Americans are not safeguarding Pakistani nuclear installations. There is no question of letting the Americans do that job for us.

There is absolutely no chance of any nuclear weapon falling into wrong hands. Nobody should have such inhibitions because, first of all, there are no assembled nuclear weapons. Neither India nor Pakistan has bombs in assembled mode. Various elements of the bombs are separated and there is no way any terror group can assemble a bomb in Pakistan within 24 hours. Pakistani installations are under strict vigil under a new command and control system which Musharraf set up in 2000. That is why we know what Dr A Q Khan was doing.
Jihad sethi wants us to believe it was mushy and not the CIA who nailed Xerox Khan...

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Sunil » 16 Feb 2004 19:18

Lessons for the day from the Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation thread.

1) KS acknowledges that the NPT is dead because of Pakistan, China, North Korea, Western Europe, and a permissive attitude in the US destroyed it.

2) J N Dixit says, the Chinese tested the first Pakistani Bomb in 1987 at Lop Nor.

3) Stephen Cohen says that Musharraf is a bad listener, who doesn't care for details and has an exaggerated opinion of himself. SPC says Musharraf should take moral responsibility for what has happened.

4) Dawn says AXK suffers a heart attack, BBC says no.

5) Jihad Sethi tell barefaced lies by recounting how Pakistan's nukes are not under US safeguard and how there is absolutely no chance of the nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Jihadis as there is new system put in place by General Musharraf.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Sarma » 16 Feb 2004 19:24

sunil bhai:

Jehadi Sethi is strictly adhering to the gag orders put in place by Musharraf in the press conference.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby jrjrao » 16 Feb 2004 19:25

FWIW, edit in the Toronto Star:

Editorial: Corralling The Bomb

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Rudra » 16 Feb 2004 19:30

under the deal with exim US bank two swank new
B777-200s have arrived for free in pakland
for PIA. more are incoming.

add that to the baksheesh ledger.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby jrjrao » 16 Feb 2004 19:33

And predictable nonsense in the edit form the SF Chronicle. You get bitten in the behind by Khan, and so you want to run after India and Israel. And yes, Mush is still an indispensable ally though.

Stop nuclear epidemics
... Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, an important ally of America in the war against terrorism, ...

The irresponsible transfers of Pakistani nuclear know-how to unstable, terrorist-linked regimes show the importance of strengthening the system of international monitoring and inspections under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Such nuclear-capable countries as Pakistan, India and Israel must be brought fully into the non-proliferation system. :) The peddling of deadly technology and merchandise to international outlaws must be stopped.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby AJay » 16 Feb 2004 20:40

I sent the following letter to the SF Chronicle.

Dear Editor

This is with respect to your editorial on Monday, February 16, 2004 titled
"Stop nuclear epidemics". In this you stated that

Such nuclear-capable countries as Pakistan, India and Israel must be brought
fully into the non-proliferation system. The peddling of deadly technology
and merchandise to international outlaws must be stopped.

I am puzzled to note that India and Israel are included here along with
Pakistan. I wonder whether you have some secret information that these two
countries proliferated nuclear technology the same way Pakistan (via A.Q.
Khan and in all probability with the aquiescense of General turned President
Musharraf) has proliferated to Libya, Iran, and North Korea. If you have such
information or proof, could you please share it with your readers?

Sincerely

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby jarugn » 16 Feb 2004 22:26


Prateek
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Prateek » 16 Feb 2004 23:05

A slap on the wrist for a nuclear rogue
http://www.journaltimes.com/articles/2004/02/16/opinion/iq_2707047.txt

EU's Patten says any European firms in nuclear scandals should face courts
http://www.eubusiness.com/afp/040216143227.1jvqpuo7

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Prateek » 16 Feb 2004 23:07

Caught in the Web?
Questions persist over Malaysian involvement in Pakistan's nuclear proliferation scandal
BY SIMON ELEGANT AND MAGESWARY RAMAKHRISHNAN | KUALA LUMPUR


http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/article/0,13673,501040223-591356,00.html

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Leonard » 17 Feb 2004 01:21

Scared Dawood gets new face surgically?

Dawood Ibrahim, who is reportedly living in the VIP area of Islamabad under heavy security comparable to senior most generals and ISI chief, has been undergoing plastic surgery to alter his looks ever since October last year when the US declared that he was linked to the money-laundering of Al-Qaeda funds, according to Pak sources based in London.

The US Treasury Department has found that he was funnelling funds for Al-Qaeda, Taliban and other terrorist organisations including Lashkar-e-Taiba. It also found that Dawood had struck a deal with Osama bin Laden to use his wide network to acquire funds from various charitable organisations.

The Treasury Department with the approval of the UN declared Dawood, in mid-October last year as a "Specially Designated Global Terrorist".

"Just like in the case of Dr Khan, most in authority in Islamabad thus cannot afford to let Dawood out of the country and made to talk. He has surely been used by the ISI in Afghanistan or has at least enjoyed its benevolence."

Dawood would have also realised that the Americans could ask for fuller inquiry and his interrogation. Islamabad would have then been unable to resist the American pressure as it could that of India's and get away by stating that he was not in Pakistan. An altered appearance could help in again iterating that he had left the country.

This is why the sources said there has been utter secrecy over the surgery. "The rumours have nevertheless persisted although there is no way to confirm."

According to reports he was last seen quite a few months ago at a wedding but since then he has not been spotted in public.

But, according to recent reports Dawood has been more worried for his safety since the start last November of investigations into Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan's selling of nuclear weapons technology and his nexus with the underworld for acquiring N-material and laundering his ill-gotten wealth.

"The report that Dr Khan was in critical condition after a sudden heart attack or even the amended report that he was in very bad health must have made the ever suspicious Dawood even more concerned."

There is one report that like Dr Khan who possibly sent out of Pakistan through his daughter Dina, documents and a taped statement incriminating General including President Musharraf in his proliferation activities to ensure his own safety, Dawood has done the same. He has kept papers with his trusted men outside Pakistan.

The name of Dawood has not so far been mentioned as one of the underworld links of Dr Khan but the fact that Dubai was the main channel for leaking the N-technology and for sending out and receiving material surfaced quite early in the investigations about Dr Khan's activities.

Dawood's network in Dubai is well-known and it is now being said that his set-up with its wide-reach and large number of trusted operatives "came in handy" for the surreptitious proliferation and money-laundering. "It could have possibly won him passage to Pakistan through Dr Khan and his sympathisers in power."

Dawood was, it is alleged, part of the group of people linked with Dr Khan's proliferation and money-laundering activities. It included one known as bullion king, a major player in the Pak Stock and Exchange, a big gold dealer in Dubai and two army officers, a colonel and a major, both of whom were conduits for transfer of N-technology to Libya.

The recent exposure of a Malaysian company that shipped a cargo of N-material to Dubai and specially the arrest of a Pak businessman Aizaz Jafri, alleged to be the frontman for Dr Khan could have alarmed Dawood more. Jafri was the middleman for Khan in the international black market network in the nuclear materials set up by the disgraced scientist.

The chains of hotels and restaurants owned fully or partially by Dr Khan were also managed by Jafri. Notably, Jafri made frequent trips to Dubai when Dawood was there. Intelligence agrees, that Dawood could fear exposure from persons like Jafri and several other businessmen who have been arrested. Worse his links in the ISI would fear too the likelihood of suspicion falling on him, for that would expose them.

Dawood is currently under 24-hour security, albeit for his own safety just like Dr Khan. He would very much wish he disappears with changed appearance rather than be caught in the Khan storm, particularly after hearing that the scientist's health has suddenly deteriorated.

Dawood wears Paki Brown Pants

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Leonard » 17 Feb 2004 02:36

jrjrao

Lookee here from Laxmibai's Post on Terrorist Gola's Interview

Gola is PLAGIARISING your SHRILEEN DOLL's lines



Shame Shame :rotfl: :rotfl:

<<<<<
Q: Accountability

Q: He could keep his money. You know, you've fought so hard against corruption.

A: Yes. Let me first of all take on the pardon issue. These are very sensitive matters. They have an international implication or connotation and a domestic connotation. I certainly had to take both of them into consideration. But historically I would also like to, I hope, I'm sure you know the history of any scientist. I've gotten involved in what has been happening in the past and let me tell you about United States.

Do you know that Dr. Robert [Oppenheimer], who was the father of the United States nuclear bomb, atomic bomb, transferred technology to Russia in 1954? And that is how the Soviet Union had its nuclear device. What happened to him? He, nothing happened to him. He was only punished by revoking his security clearance.

Then Dr. [Wen Ho] Lee, why go so far, I also found that about Dr. Lee in 2002 and 2003 for transferring nuclear secrets to China. And what happened to him? He was charged, 59, there were 59 charges put against him. I found that out. Absolved of 58. The 59th charge was for transferring sensitive nuclear material on nuclear data onto a disk and given nine months R.L. and that too, they said that since he had been in custody for that long, he wasn't put behind bars at all.

No, I'm not challenging. I don't know the conditions. I don't know the environment. Every country has an environment and these are sensitive matters. They are dealt with in a, secretively. There is no publicity possible. Because they are very, very sensitive.

>>>>

From Laxmibai's link in the Paki Thread

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/15/international/asia/16MTEXT.html?pagewanted=2

Gola is so PATHETIC !!!!!

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby jrjrao » 17 Feb 2004 02:54

Leonard, this is more proof, if it was ever needed, that Shrilleen is THE authentic voice of the "gone-entirely-mad" Paki establishment.

I think it is entirely true that in the eager expectation of the new weekly Jalebis, Mush himself, and also all the other Mushlets, start feverishly pinging the Dung web site at the same time on Tuesday afternoons just as desperately as I and the other Forumites do!! :)

So much competition for the darlin's pearls of dissdom... :whine: :whine:

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby jrjrao » 17 Feb 2004 02:57

Oops, wrong thread...

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Gerard » 17 Feb 2004 03:00

Do you know that Dr. Robert [Oppenheimer], who was the father of the United States nuclear bomb, atomic bomb, transferred technology to Russia in 1954? And that is how the Soviet Union had its nuclear device. What happened to him? He, nothing happened to him. He was only punished by revoking his security clearance.
Excellent. Gola is in fine form.
Spout this nonsense in a magazine read around the world. Confirm your status as buffoon.
Gola Zindabad!

<img src="http://india-forum.com/forums/html/emoticons/pakee.gif" alt="" />

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby jrjrao » 17 Feb 2004 03:08

Edit from Sydney.

The Chinese connection

http://www.smh.com.au/editorial/index.html

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby jarugn » 17 Feb 2004 03:22

Here is a funny take on Xerox Khan's antics

http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=26&story=34479

The world next week

Manas Chakravarty
Published : February 17, 2004

Islamabad, Monday, February 23: The father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb now says that he fathered it single-handedly, without any help from the Pakistani government or army.

“I had just put some clothes in the washing machine,” said Dr Khan in a nationally televised address, “and went to the market to buy some veggies. Imagine my surprise when I heard a loud ‘BOOM’, and the next thing I see is this huge mushroom cloud over my cottage.”

Khan went on to tell how he had forgotten about the lump of uranium in his trouser pocket, and how it reacted with the heavy water in his washing machine (he always uses heavy water for washing, it’s great for stains) to produce Pakistan’s first atomic bomb.

“I take sole responsibility for it”, said Khan, adding that he put his trousers in the washing machine in good faith.

“The army was completely flabbergasted when the thing went off”, said Pervez Musharraf while pardoning Dr Khan on TV, “We had no idea he was building a bomb.” In Washington, US President George Bush said that the whole thing proved his faith in the Pak government.

Meanwhile, Islamabad is rife with rumours that Dr Khan will take sole responsibility for the Kargil war next week.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Roop » 17 Feb 2004 03:26

These Packees are ridiculous! Robert Oppenheimer had nothing to do with the Soviets getting the atom bomb. He was simply removed from his job (and his security clearance revoked) because he had started expressing peacenik sentiments. No transfer of classified information took place, none were attempted, and none were even alleged by Oppenheimer's critics.

The people who transferred Western atomic secrets to the Sovs were Klaus Fuchs and the Rosenbergs (Julius and Ethel, husband and wife).

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby James Bund » 17 Feb 2004 04:07

Russia detonated its first bomb in 1949, a remarkable achievement. Its first H-bomb was detonated in 1953.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby ramana » 17 Feb 2004 04:29

These are my thoughts on TSP's shenanigans.
TSP got its enrichment hardware from Western Europe especially Germany. It got the associated
electrial components from Canada, Britain and the US. All this is proscribed hardware. The individuals
knew what it was ment for.
TSP got its weapon designs from China. This is clear. The TSP implementation of the design was proofed in China per JN Dixit in 1987. Around Brasstacks time. Something else might have happened in early 80s for the tunnels were being dug at Chagai. Maybe decided to test at Lop Nor to deflect potential pressure.

China then transferred missile delivery systems throughout the late 80s and early 90s.

All along the US slapped silly sanctions on only TSP and China. None on the Western Europeans - why?

As KS points out even now the brunt of the publicity is only on TSP and not the Western European nations who are NPT signatories. Speaking of NPT it was designed to halt the spread to those very same countries who had mastery of the fuel cycle and were under US umbrella. Maybe the Western Europeans were proofing their enrichment hardware thru TSP for eventual breakout?
Having seen first hand the lack of US seriousness on non-prolif vis a vis santions etc. the TSP went merrily along proliferating to the Mid-East and to North Korea and were just now caught up. The lackadaiscal attitude of the US to TSP shows that geopolitical interests are still dominating the proliferation agenda.

What is still not clear is what exactly North Korea has? Is it the Pu device based on Chagai -2 or is it the old Chinese HEU design bartered with TSP? Or something else from China with the AXK deals providing cover?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Tim » 17 Feb 2004 05:18

Ramana,

A couple of points that might be worth considering from US reports (I've just been going over them today).

1. There is at least some speculation that PRC benefited from AQ Khan's centrifuge technology. Proliferation may have been a two way street. May have even been a nukes for missiles deal (like North Korea).

2. North Korean Pu project dates back to the 80s - before Pakistan had Pu capability. The existing DPRK designs, therefore, may be different - from a Chinese source, or indigenous. Pakistan's Pu designs, at least in theory, could be from DPRK - might be worth looking at. Nobody's mentioned it (maybe for good reason, that I'm unaware of...), but at least in theory Pakistan could have traded HEU for Norht Korean Pu designs.

Tim

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby shiv » 17 Feb 2004 05:54

Originally posted by Tim:

2. North Korean Pu project dates back to the 80s - before Pakistan had Pu capability. The existing DPRK designs, therefore, may be different - from a Chinese source, or indigenous. Pakistan's Pu designs, at least in theory, could be from DPRK - might be worth looking at. Nobody's mentioned it (maybe for good reason, that I'm unaware of...), but at least in theory Pakistan could have traded HEU for Norht Korean Pu designs.

Indigenous DPRK Pu designs sounds pretty far fetched to me - like Pakistan may have proliferated to Iran, Libya and Iraq. KSA, so let's get iraq. The story sounds like yet another attempt to divert attention.

The reason why some of these things are incredible is because the stories that seem to be coming out of US government sources are getting more and more far fetched - with everyone knowing different. The US Govt has every right to bluif to protect US interests but hey what the heck - the bluff has to be credible - and not like the story someone has posted above about Khan's heavy water washing machine and Uranium in his pant pocket.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Kuttan » 17 Feb 2004 06:02

The net effect of all this is that statements from "US (nuclear..) experts" have gained the stratospheric levels of credibility previously achieved only by the Pakistani Official Govt. Spokesman.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Prof Raghu » 17 Feb 2004 06:31

Cross posted:
Danny Pearl murder and Pak proliferation

...
This powerful conflict within the Pakistan government could be seen in Musharraf's handling of the government's corrupt nuclear program. Just three weeks ago, after it was revealed that Pakistan had given nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya and North Korea - a story that Danny had been pursuing - Musharraf called the scientists involved "enemies of the state". But then, last Wednesday, Musharraf seemed to cave, pardoning Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan's nuclear programme who had taken responsibility for the leaked information. By doing so, Musharraf avoided a battle with government hard-liners, who deified Khan for turning Pakistan into a nuclear power. It illustrates how rough the justice in this part of the world can be, and why it helps to have as many witnesses as possible.

...

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby jrjrao » 17 Feb 2004 06:41

Disarming the nuclear Brahmins
By SUNANDA K. DATTA-RAY
FOR THE STRAITS TIMES

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/commentary/story/0,4386,235671,00.html?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby svinayak » 17 Feb 2004 06:42

Time for nuclear rethink

Praful Bidwai
The News International. February 12, 2004

The writer is one of Indiaís most widely published columnists.
Formerly a Senior Fellow of the Nehru
Memorial Museum and Library, he is a winner of the Sean MacBride
Prize for 2000 of the International Peace Bureau

prafulbidwai1@y...

How the mighty have fallen! Some months ago, nobody could have
accused Dr A Q Khan of any impropriety, leave alone corruption,
without being branded "anti-Pakistan". "The Father of the Islamic
Bomb" was above reproach. No honour was too high for him.

Today, the metallurgist and former head of Khan Research Laboratories
stands disgraced. He has been accused of, and confessed, to serious
nuclear proliferation-related offences, in particular, selling
Pakistanís best-kept military secrets to North Korea, Iran and Libya.
Investigators interrogating KRL personnel, especially since high US
officials met and briefed President Pervez Musharraf in October, have
found evidence of large-sale corruption in KRL. Dr Khan had to seek
pardon and was granted it ó- conditionally.

Going by what has been reported in the international and Pakistani
media, especially the contents of official briefings to journalists
published in the press, Dr Khan ran a secret network ramified across
three continents to covertly transfer nuclear technologies and
components. This involved manufacturing precision components for
uranium centrifuges in a factory in Malaysia. Crucial to it were
middlemen from Germany, Holland and Sri Lanka, and shipments of
forbidden materials through Dubai. Lubricating it were enormous sums
of money.

These disclosures mark a breakthrough in investigations into the
global clandestine commerce in nuclear technology. They point to an
elaborate, complex and purposive effort ó perhaps the most successful
in the world since the collaboration between Israel and apartheid
South Africa in the 1970s ó to defy national and international
controls on nuclear transfers.

They also raise serious questions about the international
black-market (or "Wal-Mart") in materials to make mass-destruction
weapons, whose potential International Atomic Energy Agency
director-general Mohamed ElBaradel acknowledges: "Itís obvious that
the international export controls have completely failed in recent
years. A nuclear black-market has emerged, driven by fantastic
cleverness. Designs are drawn in one country, centrifuges are
produced in another, they are then shipped via a third country and
there is no clarity about the end-user ..."

As seen from India, these disclosures have polarised opinion in
Pakistan. Right-wing religious hardliners see them as an attempt to
"humiliate" a "national hero", who "saved" Pakistan from India.
Liberal opinion has a more sober view. It recognises that the world
cannot condone KRLís activities.

Both currents of opinion are uncomfortable with the line that the
Pakistani government was wholly innocent of any involvement with the
illicit transfers; these were the work of "individual scientists"
driven by "personal greed".

The army-controlled security apparatus has always exercised close
surveillance upon nuclear facilities and personnel. As Pervez
Hoodbhoy, a Quaid-i-Azam University physicist and nuclear analyst,
says: "Since its inception, Pakistanís nuclear programme has been
squarely under army supervision [with a] multi-tiered security system
... Diplomatic immunity was insufficient to prevent a physical
roughing up of the French ambassador to Pakistan some years ago when
he journeyed to a point several miles from the enrichment facility."

Opinions diverge. MMA sympathisers and conservative nationalists
would want all the rogue scientists and army officers to be brought
to book. Others would like to put a lid on the whole thing and "close
the file" quickly ó "in the national interest". (Many in India,
including the government, are similarly disposed. New Delhi does not
want to rock the "peace process" boat. Until last week, it maintained
an uncharacteristic silence on the whole issue. This was broken by a
low-key statement.)

Yet, the conservatives, and many liberals, share one common
assumption. They believe that nuclear weapons are instruments of
national self-defence and provide security. This is the criterion
around which to judge how far Islamabad should go towards
accommodating to US pressure ó without compromising its nuclear
"self-esteem".

A strong case exists for full disclosure and accountability ó
especially if nuclear controls are to be durable in South Asia and
the world is to learn lessons from the past. But it is equally
important to question the equation between nuclear weapons and
security. Nuclear weapons are not rational instruments of war. These
mass-annihilation weapons are meant to be used against non-combatant
civilians ó in violation of all rules of warfare. Nuclear weapons
have no strategic "positive" value of their own. They can at best
play a negative role ó via deterrence.

Deterrence is a gravely flawed doctrine. It assumes a symmetrical
understanding of what constitutes "unacceptable damage", and complete
mutual transparency about two adversariesí capabilities and
doctrines. It requires that there be no accident, strategic
miscalculation, or panic response, no unauthorised use, no leaks.
These assumptions are clearly unrealistic. In practice, deterrence
has never provided lasting security.

Nuclear weapons possession does not necessarily improve a nationís
military power or ability to compel an adversary to behave in a
certain way. Thus, the mightiest nuclear state failed to prevent
China from entering the Korean War. The US also had to beat an
ignominious retreat from Vietnam. The USSR did the same from
Afghanistan. British and French nukes did not affect the Suez war.
Nor did Britainís nuclear armaments prevent Argentina from crossing
swords with it over the Falklands.

In fact, not having nuclear weapons might give one greater protection
vis-a-vis the nuclear powers. Whether or not nuclear weapons will be
used is determined by politics. World opinion wouldnít support their
use against a non-nuclear state.

The time has come to face the plain truth. The nuclear proliferation
danger is real ó everywhere. Huge quantities of enriched uranium and
weapons-grade plutonium routinely pass through civilian nuclear
facilities the world over. Plutonium, only 5 to 8 kilos of which is
enough to make a Nagasaki-type bomb, is traded in amounts such as
tonnes between Japan and Europe alone. There are large quantities of
MUF ("material unaccounted-for") in the worldís reprocessing
facilities. The IAEA admits this. There are willing proliferators too
in the former Soviet Union in the shape of hundreds of unemployed
nuclear scientists.

IAEA inspections cannot take care of all of these sources of leaks.
Yet they are the sole physical controls on global movements of
nuclear materials. The proliferation danger will remain so long as
nuclear weapons and power-generation programmes exist. There is no
method of eliminating the danger ó short of total nuclear disarmament
and shift to non-hazardous power technologies.

Pakistanís and Indiaís ultimate interest lies in global nuclear
disarmament. In the short run, it lies in tighter controls and
nuclear weapons reduction. US experts like Michael Krepon recently
told the US Senate foreign relations committee that material to make
"dirty bombs" could be easily procured from poorly guarded labs in
India and Pakistan; both countries are "very vulnerable" to leaks.
The Bomb and its makers have brought disgrace to South Asia. The Bomb
is no asset for Pakistan or India. Itís a liability. The sooner we
rid ourselves of it, the better.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby shiv » 17 Feb 2004 08:28

I still can't get the two points made by Tim off my mind:

Point 1: made for the second time is that China wanted Khan's URENCO centrifuge designs

Point 2: DPRK had Pu designs - exchanged with Pak for HEU

For China, that has "full cycle" capability, and which actually has access to stolen miniature warhead designs from the US - URENCO-Khan designs must have been nothing more than a curiosity. Why would China need U235 enrichment via the relatively ineffficient centrifuge route when they have everything. It is dufficult to swallow that story.

As for DPRK and established Pu bomb designs - why on earth would DPRK want Paki centrifuges or Paki HEU if they had Pu designs. Why would they give missiles and Pu designs to Pakistan and risk the attention of the great Satan unless their so called Pu design was useless or non existent.

Ultimately there is a big cover up in progress. No matter how much "righteous indignation" we may feel about "proliferation" the fact is that the "Big 5" ( :rotfl: - what a name!) do not care a fck about proliferation - and in that sense have taken huge numbers of shots at their own goal.

Every person has his own reasons for justifying his proliferation and blaming somoene else.

Proliferation nuclear weapons significant technology between the US and Western Europe was "sharing knowledge for freedom and democracy" and the Western way of life.

Proliferation after the collapse of the Soviet Union was the death throes of a corrupt and inefficient system that was beaten by the triumphant west.

Proliferation by China to Pakistan and NoKo was for "Startegic balancing" and technology to nations who could be depended upon to target others - the West or the US.

Proliferation by small private companies in Europe and the US supplying compnenets for programs in Pakistan and later to programs in Libya, Iran and NoKo wer "Genuine business by innocent small Western concerns hoodwinked by cheating Pakistanis"

Proliferation from Pakistan to NoKo, Iran and Libya and probably (IMO) KSA and Myanmar - were for the ummah and to balance the Hindu and Jewish bombs and make money.

Everyone has illicit sex. Nobody admits it that's all.

If we forget the issue of who proliferated to whom and see what we have left it looks like the nuclear genie is out of the bag. Twenty years from now any number of nations will have the bomb and so will terrorist groups.

And I will bet my testimonials once again that the US knows all this and is merely working on how rogue bombs from rogue nuclear states go off in faraway nations rather than in the US.

For India I think a similar cynical policy will be the most pragmatic one - how to ensure that any rogue bombs that go off, go off far away from India - in Shanghai, Europe or the US if necessary.

Sorry if I sound harsh or unkind - but there is NO role for morality here. Nobody gives a fck for morals; Just save your ass. Let someone else get vaporized.

Ultimately I think the US and Europe are screwing themselves - which is sad because I trust them a bit more than I trust China. But rogue bombs are least likely to go off in China. I think the US has as much of a crisis of leadership as Pakistan. That is a harsh indictment - but I worry that I may be right.

laxmibai
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 23
Joined: 26 Sep 2003 11:31

Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby laxmibai » 17 Feb 2004 08:37

Re Dawood
Just fyi for possible timeline purposes, Dawood Ibrahim was put on the State Department's terrorist supporter list on October 16, 2003.

http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/pol/terror/texts/03101603.htm


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