Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Johann
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Johann » 20 Feb 2004 02:11

Originally posted by kgoan:
Where does Pakistan get it's uranium from?

Pakistan is supposed to have it's own mines, especially at Dera Ghazi Khan, but how good are Pak mines given the current situation? i.e. If they were selling everything else, why were they *not* selling yellowcake? Because they couldn't?
OECD estimate of Pakistan's yellowcake production in the 1990s was ~25t per annum.

One estimate by IDSA in the 1980s that the Pakistanis required ~50 tonnes of yellowcake to produce 15kgs of weapons grade uranium (enough for the chic-4 design).

Pakistan bought over 100t of yellowcake directly from the government of Niger in the early 1980s. Much of that went to fabricate fuel for Pakistan's reactors, such as the one in Karachi which the Candadians cut off supply to in the mid-1970s. Libya on the other hand bought over 1,500 tons from Niger around the same period, and much of that is suspected to have wound up in the Pakistani nuclear weapons programme.

The mines in Niger are run by the French, although the government of Niger owns a large stake and also used to market the stuff. The President of Niger once declared that he'd sell uranium to the devil if he asked. By 1986 the government of Niger was pressured in to ending its role in the direct sale of uranium, because of such unsafeguarded transactions.

Nevertheless AQ Khan's reported trips to Niger in 1998, 1999 and 2000 appear to have been to investigate the possibility of securing more yellowcake for his nuclear clients and perhaps even Pakistan itself. Attempts which as I said on a previous thread quite likely failed.

The interesting thing about the controversial documents regarding purported Iraqi attempts to purchase yellowcake from Niger is that they came from the Libyans. One reason they were of interest is because there had been repeated reports of Iraqi scientists and engineers working in Libyan labs.

Libya had been playing an interesting game for the last six or seven years, attempting to change its image (and end sanctions) while avoiding full disclosure. It is possible that they attempted some kind of pre-emptive deception, while killing a second bird with the same stone and ingratiating themselves. In some ways it might have been a foreshadowing of their incrimination of the Pakistanis in 2003.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Tim » 20 Feb 2004 02:41

Avner Cohen's "Israel and the Bomb" is the single preeminent source on Israeli nuclear developments, 1948-1970. It does not suggest substantial cooperation between US and Israeli nuclear designers - one reason the Israelis went to France.

However, there's no reason to trust a single source. Seymour Hersh's "The Samson Option" - which is much less sympathetic to the US-Israeli relationship - also doesn't make a big point about nuclear cooperation between the US and Israel, or of the participation by US scientists in Israeli nuclear power or weapons efforts.

Those are useful data points for anyone interested in seriously investigating these relationships. I don't believe the relationship was significant before 1967 or so, because the US relationship with Israel was so conflicted until that time. After the Six Day War, it would have been easier for the US to allow or ignore some covert cooperation, although I don't think there's a lot of evidence of that (except for a delivery of yellowcake and some fiercely disputed evidence about the loss of nuclear material from some US firms).

The key people in the Israeli nuclear program were Ben Gurion, Shimon Peres, and Bergmann (head of the Israeli AEC) - all Israelis.

Tim

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Tim » 20 Feb 2004 02:43

Oh, two other sources to start with. Shimon Peres has now written several autobiographies, each of which reveals bits and pieces of Israeli nuclear development, usually disguised in quaint terms like "special weapons." Also, for those who read Hebrew, Munya Mardor's book "RAFAEL" - a history of the Israeli R&D center - has some very revealing passages, mostly about the French connection and Israel's construction of nuclear devices in late May 1967, just before the Six Day War.

Tim

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby A_Gupta » 20 Feb 2004 02:47

Cross-post from Indo-US thread:
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/national/AP-Nuclear-Trader.html
AP: Accused Nuke Trader Also Helped India

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby SubRao » 20 Feb 2004 04:16

Originally posted by Arun_Gupta:
Cross-post from Indo-US thread:
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/national/AP-Nuclear-Trader.html
AP: Accused Nuke Trader Also Helped India
Anyone in bangalore can callup this guy.Raghavendra "Ragu" Rao can be contacted at ragu@foretekin.com
Phone: 91.80.525.4706
91.80.520.1498
The guy Asher Karni(Ex.Israeli army officer) seems to be in Potomac,Md with a rabbi.




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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby NRao » 20 Feb 2004 07:46

From the Raghu article:

Authorities accuse Karni of using front companies and falsified documents to buy nuclear bomb triggers in the United States and ship them to Pakistan.
Buy such triggers in the US? Why would the US even sell such items to anyone? Someone in the US is also making $$$. :D

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Rangudu » 20 Feb 2004 08:08

Link

Questions Raised About Pakistan's Nuclear Arms

Thu February 19, 2004 08:55 PM ET

By Carol Giacomo, Diplomatic Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - After the revelations about Pakistan's role in the nuclear black market, Islamabad is seen as primarily responsible for ending the arms trade but the United States is not pushing it to have its facilities inspected and cooperation is limited, U.S. officials and experts say.

While most experts agree Washington should not press President Pervez Musharraf, target of two assassination attempts, so hard that he may be ousted, some are concerned that the Bush administration is not demanding enough action from the Pakistani leader to combat the nuclear threat.

"We do have interests in not putting the kind of pressure on Musharraf that would compromise his domestic position, but the leakage of nuclear material is transcendent," said Selig Harrison of the Center for International Policy.

The real danger is not just the scandal of disgraced Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan confessing to selling nuclear secrets to Libya, Iran and North Korea.

More ominous is the possibility that nuclear material may fall into the hands of terrorist groups.

In what some analysts call a "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil" approach, the administration has given Musharraf "a pass" by accepting his insistence that he and his government were not involved in Khan's network.

In the 1980s, Washington adopted a similar stance, ignoring Pakistan's nuclear weapons program because it needed Islamabad as an ally against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.

BACKING AN ALLY

U.S. officials consider Musharraf a critical ally in the war on terrorism and the best leader for Pakistan at this time.

But Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute finds a contradiction in Pakistan claiming it has control of its nuclear arsenal while denying it knew about Khan. "Those two statements don't jibe. One must be untrue," she said.

After the recent disclosures, Pakistan at a minimum must give the United States direct access to Khan, so it can unravel the nuclear network, and satisfy Washington that its nuclear weapons and technology are secure, she said.


According to several U.S. officials, however, Washington may not yet have direct access to Khan.

"I don't think we've gotten the full story from Khan yet from Pakistan," one senior U.S. official told Reuters.

"We had some discussions with the Pakistanis but basically we've asked them for a more thorough (briefing). As Pakistan proceeds with its own investigation, we expect them to share. They've shared some with the IAEA (U.N. nuclear watchdog) and we'll look for them to share more," he said.

Pakistan is proud of its nuclear arms, which were tested in 1998. Because of the political damage it could do to Musharraf, U.S. officials might not acknowledge if they had interrogated Khan. The CIA declined to comment.

With 48 deployed nuclear weapons and fuel for 52 more, Pakistan should install, under supervision of U.S. scientists, new protective measures at its nuclear laboratories; permit regular inspection of these labs by U.N. experts; and radically strengthen export controls, Harrison said.

But another senior U.S. official said: "This is not a country which has agreed to give us access to their nuclear weapons facilities" and it would be unrealistic to ask. "We don't have a lever," he insisted. :roll: :roll:

U.S. officials have acknowledged general discussions with Pakistan on nuclear safety but have not provided details. U.S. laws limit cooperation with Pakistan's nuclear program.

NBC Television recently reported that since the September 2001 attacks, U.S. nuclear experts have spent millions of dollars to safeguard Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, including secret authorization codes for the weapons. A U.S. official did not deny the report but insisted: "We ... won't go over the edge of our law and the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty." :roll:

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby JaiS » 20 Feb 2004 09:50

KHANGATE: No payoffs for India yet


NEW DELHI : The A Q Khan affair has become a catalyst of sorts for defining the new relationship between India and the United States .

On one hand, it has tilted in favour of New Delhi the debate in Washington between those who see India 's nuclear status as benign and the anti-proliferation ayatollahs who don't.


But till now nothing has happened on the agreement that would enable cooperation in the so-called quartet of issues — space, nuclear, high tech trade and ballistic missile defence.


It may be recalled that the first-ever interdiction was done by Indian authorities when they off-loaded designs and equipment for a Scud factory from a North Korean ship at Kandla in mid-1999.


However, Indian officials say that while they are all for stemming proliferation, it's not clear whether the US sees the India as a primary actor, or merely in a supporting role.


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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Prateek » 20 Feb 2004 13:38

Nuclear sales to India alleged

Israeli man faces new allegations

The Associated Press

WASHINGTON — An Israeli businessman accused of being a middleman in the nuclear black market worked to supply not only Pakistan but also its archrival India, court records indicate.

Asher Karni, who was based in South Africa, faces felony charges of exporting nuclear bomb triggers to Pakistan. But court files in the case also include e-mail exchanges between Karni and an Indian businessman who was secretly trying to buy material for two Indian rocket factories.

“Be careful to avoid any reference to the customer name,” warned one message from Karni's Indian contact, Raghavendra Rao of Foretek Marketing (Pvt.) Ltd.

The messages offer a rare glimpse into such dealings. Federal prosecutors filed them in court as part of their attempts to persuade a judge to keep Karni behind bars until his trial.

After conferring with U.S. Magistrate Judge Alan Kay on Thursday, attorneys for both sides agreed to postpone a bond hearing for Karni until Tuesday. L. Barrett Boss, one of Karni's attorneys, declined to comment after the hearing.

Karni, 50, has pleaded not guilty. Federal agents arrested him on New Year's Day when he arrived in Denver for a ski vacation.

Authorities accuse Karni of using front companies and falsified documents to buy nuclear bomb triggers in the United States and ship them to Pakistan.

The United States is pressuring Pakistan to shut down the black-market network it used to supply its nuclear weapons program and in turn to supply Iran, North Korea and Libya with nuclear technology. A scientist in Pakistan's nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, said this month that he ran the network but that Pakistan's government was not involved.
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Vivek_A » 20 Feb 2004 16:44

Notice how the rats at the beeb call a PAF jet a Pakistani jet...

Scientist(Xerox) 'sent uranium to Libya'

Disgraced Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan transferred enriched uranium to Libya, according to a report released by police in Malaysia.
Buhary Syed Abu Tahir, Dr Khan's alleged chief financier, said he was told around 2001 that uranium was sent in a Pakistani jet, the report said.

Mr Tahir, a resident of Malaysia, also told police Iran paid Dr Khan $3m for used centrifuge parts in the mid-1990s.

Dr Khan has confessed to the illegal transfer of technology overseas.

He is still seen as a hero in Pakistan for instigating the nation's nuclear programme and was pardoned by President Pervez Musharraf.

'Cash payment'

Malaysian police have been questioning Mr Tahir, a Sri Lankan who is based in Dubai, over his role in Dr Khan's network.

They released a report into their investigation on Friday.

In it, Mr Tahir is reported to have said a "certain amount" of uranium was flown to Libya in a Pakistani jet. He said he was told of this by Dr Khan around 2001.

The police report said that from what Mr Tahir "could recall", Libya contacted Dr Khan in 1997 "to obtain help and expertise in the field of uranium-enrichment centrifuge".

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 11 Feb 2004

Postby Calvin » 20 Feb 2004 16:55

Niranjan: Those "triggers" are used in other medical applications.


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