Since when did the Pakis get info from the BARC or whoever decides on conducting test? <P>India planning another nuclear test: Shamshad<P>By Azim M Mian<P>ISLAMABAD: Foreign Secretary Shamshad Ahmad said India is planing another nuclear test before signing the CTBT and it will add to the prevailing grim situation in South Asia.<P>In an interview with The News, Shamshad said India is known for announcing so many peace doctrines; but has a record of actions just contrary to its own defined doctrines ranging from Nehru doctrine, Indira doctrine and Gujral doctrine. Current nuclear doctrine is nothing but Indian ambition of becoming a nuclear giant, capable of making its definitions of threat to Indian interests and strike any peaceful country at will, Shamshad said.<P>The top career diplomat of Pakistan did not elaborate further but said: "We have received information that India is planning another nuclear test prior to its signing of the CTBT." "Any such Indian test will further complicate the current fragile situation in the subcontinent. Pakistan cannot and will not compromise on its national security requirements", he said.<P>"How can we sign the CTBT in such circumstances, unless international community takes some action to force India to stop its nuclear ambitions and acts of proliferation," he inquired. He said: "Signing of CTBT by Pakistan will not resolve the problem, when India has been given a free hand to posses stockpiles of nuclear arms as per its own nuclear doctrine. The Indian doctrine clearly says that India will pick up any nuclear or even non-nuclear country to strike at will by claiming that the country was a threat to the Indian security. It is high time that world should take notice of India's hegemonies designs and aim to become a global nuclear power."<P>"Our signing of CTBT will not bring the CTBT into force. All 44 countries named in the treaty including India have to sign and ratify the treaty to enforce it. There is no way that will happen in the next few weeks. US, Russia, China and so many other countries have yet to sign or ratify the treaty", Shamshad said.<P>On demand of handing over Osama bin Laden to the US, the foreign secretary said Osama was in Afghanistan, thus it was not Pakistan's responsibility. "The Afghan war against Soviet Union led to the fall of Berlin Wall, but Western <P>countries left destroyed Afghanistan and its Mujahideen without any reward for their sacrifices and economic destruction. The mess was left unattended. This has obviously led to the current situation in Afghanistan. He asked the US and western countries to fulfill their obligations. Few years ago, these Afghan fighters were called Mujahideen and freedom fighters. Now definitions have changed," he said.<P>Responding to a question that the US is working to by-pass and minimise Pakistan's role in Afghanistan by assigning India major role against terrorism in Afghanistan, Shamshad replied that Pakistan has identical views with US on combating terrorism. "We have record of working and voicing our views against all forms of terrorism including state-sponsored terrorism; but a clear distinction must be made between just freedom struggle of some people like Kashmiris and terrorism", he said.<P>Shamshad said India itself is committing act of state terrorism in Kashmir. "If India tries to make any mess in Afghanistan, it will face consequences as her former patron Soviet Union faced few years ago", he warned. He supported the prime minister's visit to the United Nations; but said he will live with whatever decision is taken by the prime minister, in this regard.
To show its goodwill towards Pakiland, and to make a start towards complying with the Western demands for total open inspection of nuclear programs, these tests should be conducted in full view of our dear neighbors. <P>One in Lahore and one in Skardu.
If the Buddha smiles again, I will offer to take Shamshad mian to a dinner in the city, for being so accurate in his prediction, or if he so prefers may the blessings of Allah rain down on him.<P>Kaushal
Sounds too good to be true. But boy, if it<BR>is, then makes my mouth water!<P>Lets see what kind of bag of goodies we need:<P>1) Remember BARC boys, don't **** it up this time. concentrate on shaped ellipsoidal primaries and peanut shaped secondaries.<BR> 3 tests at least.<BR>2) fusion (tritium) boosted dirty plutonium<BR> (Pu-240) primaries . 3-6 tests.<BR>3) some yield to weight tests approaching<BR> close to ytw=1.5-2kt/kg .<BR>4) variable yield secondaries. 1-400 kt.<BR> 3-6 tests.<BR>5) a few neutron warheads .<BR>6) an earth penetrating warhead--another<BR> 2-3 tests.<BR>7) I dont know if india has any,<BR> but it would be nice to try some <BR> thorium 233 primaries.<BR>8) one huge megaton multistage mf simply<BR> to show the s.o.b.s. at los almos and LLNL<BR> that we're not amateurs.<P>wow this list is already up to about 20-30<BR>tests. well its worth dreaming about anyway.<BR><p>[This message has been edited by swarup (edited 11-09-1999).]
Hey Calvin, I ve that issue in front of me right now. Do u want me to send it down? Try the following link...<BR> <A HREF="http://www.sciam.com/currentissue.html" TARGET=_blank>http://www.sciam.com/currentissue.html</A> <BR>Hope this helps.<BR>Sumant.
"India is planing another nuclear test before signing the CTBT" - Tell me it is all true and I'll open the bottle, heck with kababs too !<P>"Indian ambition of becoming a nuclear giant, capable of making its definitions of threat to Indian interests and strike any peaceful country ... (oops, read Pakistan) ...<P>"Pakistan cannot and will not compromise on its national security requirements" - Man, what are you planning to do about it ?<P>"Signing of CTBT by Pakistan will not resolve the problem ..." - Who gives a damn if they do ? So long as they are in our cross-hairs ...<P>"On demand of handing over Osama bin Laden to the US, the foreign secretary said Osama was in Afghanistan, thus it was not Pakistan's responsibility ..." - Sample of smart thinking, Pigiland style !<P>"The Afghan war against Soviet Union led to the fall of Berlin Wall..." - Help, I'm choking here ! What hot air !!!<P>Just a thought: India should offer to forego 25 % of its nuclear capability if TSP decides to go off the face of this earth; 35 % if China decides to follow TSP ! BTW, the rest is India's insurance policy - non negotiable.<P><BR>
If you don't do an underground test, the pak's will say: see how irresponsible they are? That is excatly what the rest of the world will say pushing India into futher sanctions. Think of the environmental effects it will have on India. I don't think that's a good idea.<BR>Just my thougts.
Napaks are trying to improve on Dr. Goebbels. They are experts in spreading disinformation against India.<BR>I think it will be wise to take it as that only.<BR>If you are occupying seat of power you would realise the difficulties in conducting another test: political as well as technical.
Once again, the Pakis have given us a golden opportunity. <P>ABV should give George another script to read from, like he did with the Atlantique incident (I was watching TV then): <P>"Yesterday our scientists announced that they have developed Virtual Testing capability for nuclear weapons, using a copy of the simulation code and dataset received from US DOE via Beijing, courtesy of our new warm relations with the People's Republic. The following weapons were tested: <P>1. 5-megaton thermonuclear warhead with anti-gravity boost to get a virtual blackhole effect. <BR>2. 2-kiloton micro-warhead using laser-induced fusion, for use in mass-produced artillery shells. These have been assigned to DRDO for mass production. They will be fitted on Bofors shells within the next 6 months, according to DRDO, and deployed on the LOC by February. <BR>3. 1-megaton conventional thermonuclear warhead for our new submarine-lunched, ummmm, I think that says "lurched", I mean "launched" (Georgie grins), Sagarika, which will be deployed on the new nuclear submarine, which will make its maiden voyage to the Karachi coast in December. "<P>George then walks off, no questions. <P>PRC issues vely vely stlong denials, sending everyone's fear through the roof. <P>2 weeks later, Pakiland announces that they too have conducted tests, of 16 weapons. End of IMF loan instalment. End of Nawaz Sharif. <p>[This message has been edited by narayanan (edited 12-09-1999).]
No, India should not test for the following reasons<P>1) A test now would remove all support we have for any issues. It would embarrass the French, Israelis and the Russkies who are quite pally with us nowadays.<P>2) It would mean that all the statement made over that past year and more about having enough data for simulation was a big lie, and no matter how many more tests we do we our word will not be taken seriously.<P>3)It would allow Pakistan to test freely and perfect designs that did not work in Chagai in 1998.(This is exactly what Pakistan wants)<P>Cool it folks. India does not need to test, and will not test. What a silly trap to fall into.<P>
I am waiting with bated breath to see how Uncle Sam is going to try and wiggle out of the sub-critical loop hole, so India cannot use it. Watch for some creative word smithing from the James the Turd to deny India the same testing rights that the US has.<P>Kaushal
I agree with Shiv, but there is no harm in using the Pakis' fear to trick them into pushing the "test" button again. The result will be one (or several) less working nukes to worry about, and the reaction should be something to watch.
Shiv wrote:<BR>>Cool it folks. India does not need to test, >and will not test. What a silly trap to fall >into.<P>I believe you are wrong shiv about the need to test. There is no way one thermonuclear<BR>test is enough. Definitely india needs to<BR>test more primaries.<P>but you do make some valid points about why<BR>india shouldn't test.<P>With the situation that india is in, I would<BR>recommend clandestine sub-kiloton testing<BR>before india signs on the dotted line.<P>The explosions should be done in large<BR>underground sand berms decoupled from<BR>hard bedrock walls. this will attenuate<BR>the explosions by almost an order of magnitude. Heck the previous sub kiloton<BR>blasts on may 13/98 werent detected.<P>If any exposions are detected, we could<BR>use plausible deniability to say that<BR>a sub critical test over shot.
I heartily endorse renukb's view on testing it in the remote islands. IMHO Lakshwadeep should be a good testing ground. (It will be even nicer if we can get some remote uninhabited islands in the Indian ocean or Pacific or even Atlantic) But I differ on the view that the weapons should be tested in open. Underground tests will be fine and will potray us as environmentally-responsible country. Maybe one test in the open just for the fun of it... <P>Disagree with the view that some more tests will make our current pallies like Russia, France, Israel to change their stand. Just think of it, French had the guts to test their bombs in the Pacific islands as late as 1995 inspite of objections from the so-called international community. They are none the worse for it.<P>Let's face it. Even if further tests bring international condemnation, it will be for a short period only. In the long run, countries will respect us, only if we ourselves respect us and have the guts to expolde bombs inspite of opposition. We should do what's in our national security interests. So I hope we go ahead and test every type of device, as many times as needed to collect data for design validation and computer simulation.
<I>With the situation that india is in, I would<BR>recommend clandestine sub-kiloton testing<BR>before india signs on the dotted line.</I><P>Sub-critical tests can be conducted even after CTBT is signed. There's no problem with that.<P>Based on what do some members in this forum claim that more tests are needed?? Do any of you work at BARC? Related in any way with developing nuke devices in India?<P>When the Indian scientists say they don't need to test and can design devices based on Pokhran II, I am amazed how people in this forum seem to know better and second guess the folks who are actually working on designing the warheads.<P>Exploding nuke devices in the open for national "pride" is aongst the silliest things I've heard.<P>I know there are many who would like to see India develop real miniaturized warheads a la W88, multiple warheads etc. I think there are less "costly" way of getting these things rather than thru testing. <P>1)Spy, like the chinese, in US, Russia, France, China.<P>2) buy Russian scientists to work at BARC.<P>3) Wire couple of million US$ in Boris' account.<P>4) Have a quid pro quo deal with the Israilis-- may be secret collaboration. (not very secret, cause Arab newspapers have been talking about it!).<P>6) Conduct sub-critical tests, develop/use more powerful computers for simulation.<P>If we test nuke device at this time, here are some of the consequences I can imagine:<P>1) US, EU Japan, Australia, Canad are going to impose economic sanctions.<P>2) In the worst case scenario, trading with these countries will also be banned.<BR>Which will make Indian economy grow in reverse.<P>3) France and Russia will be under tremendous pressure to suspend all arms dealing with India. The Former will definitely face strong arm twisting from the EU, and the latter will be pressured by IMF/USA.<P>4) US will promise TSP the B-2 if they don't follow up on Indian tests.<P>5) All Indians on student Visa and green card will be deported back to India !!! (I couldn't resist that).
>Based on what do some members in this forum claim that more tests are needed??<P>Primarily, the fact that it took multiple<BR>tests for all the other nuclear powers<BR>to just achieve staged themonuclear detonation (China took six tests). <P>Efficient weaponizable primaries took many more tests. India also has the problem that<BR>if it really wants more than a 60 warhead arsenal, it has to develop primaries using<BR>dirty plutonium (pu-240). Here india would be<BR>staring from scratch.<P>By the way, I dont<BR>believe Indian scientists and engineers are that much smarter and better than those<BR>of all other nuke states-a little possibly--a lot no. And that is from personal and professional experience.<P>And no, I dont work at BARC, but I would<BR>be happy to accept BARC's claims of a themo<BR>nuclear detonation if they would hand over soil cores from the site. I'm sure I could find some independent labs that could analyse every last isotope in them. Either<BR>that or give me a yield above 500kt.<BR>As the american's say, big claims require<BR>big evidence. So put up or shut up is what i have to say to BARC. Putting out<BR>a nebulous claim is not acceptable, period--<BR>but it is typically Indian.<P>>When the Indian scientists say they don't >need to test and can design devices based<BR> on Pokhran II, I am amazed >how people in this forum seem to know better and<BR> second guess the folks who >are actually working on designing the warheads.<P>Oh sure, I can design a warhead, I can design<BR>an LCA, getting it to work or to fly is another thing. <P>Now, dont get me wrong, I am not belittling<BR>efforts made, but I am taking to task unsubstantiated claims. There is a<BR>huge difference between designing a warhead<BR>and actually engineering, making, and weaponizing a design.That's why it took all the other nuclear powers many, many tests.<P>To cut to the chase, I find it frustrating to<BR>see these claims of doubtful technical credulity being bandied about. And on<BR>top of that to go ahead and base a nuclear doctrine risking the national security of<BR>of the entire country on claims to which<BR>there is serious doubt and no unambigous<BR>independent confirmation. <P>>If we test nuke device at this time, here are some of the consequences I can imagine:<P>I agree that there will be consequences.<BR>But a country embarking on nuclear weapons<BR>and that is threatend by nuclear weapons<BR>should have been serious about facing the<BR>consequences.<P>Nuclear weapons are not something you go about half assed. India should have used this<BR>time up to signing CTBT to do all the<BR>tests required for national security and<BR>having a coherent plan from the start.<BR>It should have kept its mouth shut and<BR>let its yields to the talking a la<BR>Teddy Roosevelt.<p>[This message has been edited by swarup (edited 12-09-1999).]
<I>Primarily, the fact that it took multiple<BR>tests for all the other nuclear powers<BR>to just achieve staged themonuclear detonation (China took six tests). </I><P>One of the things that scientists at BARC have been repeating over and over again is that the Pokhran II test design were based on 1990s knowledge base, hence you don't require thousands or hundreds of tests like the US or Russia did. <P>With your above logic, China will never be able to develop the W88 or equivalent warhead cause they have tested far fewer times than the Americans. <P><I>be happy to accept BARC's claims of a themo<BR>nuclear detonation if they would hand over soil cores from the site. I'm sure I could find some independent labs that could analyse every last isotope in them. Either<BR>that or give me a yield above 500kt.</I><P>What you are effectively saying is that India did not test/was unsuccessful testing a thermonuclear device. <P>Are you saying you would believe nothing that GoI or scientists said unless you could verify them independently?? Swarup, if you want to participate in BR, you will not have anything else to do for the rest of your life except independently verify every claim posted on the forum!<P>I have read and have heard nuclear weapons experts on TV who have stated that the small yield-size of India' thermonuclear device has no relations to whether it can design megaton city-busters. He said something to this effect: "if you can design a small one you can design thermonukes of any size/yield." The Indian scientists also said the same thing and also added that it wasn't practical to test with larger yield cause it would level the houses in the villages nearby.<P><BR><I>There is a<BR>huge difference between designing a warhead<BR>and actually engineering, making, and weaponizing a design.That's why it took all the other nuclear powers many, many tests.</I><P>Again, read above. Indian scientists obviously didn't need "many many" tests to validate the their designs, cause Chidambaram has clearly stated that the tests were valid and more tests were not required. Of course, now you will say everybody in the Indian nuclear establishment is lying, except you and a couple of your comrades in this forum.<P>I would rather believe the Indian establishment cause they have more credibility than you and your bunch.<P><I>I agree that there will be consequences.<BR>But a country embarking on nuclear weapons<BR>and that is threatend by nuclear weapons<BR>should have been serious about facing the<BR>consequences.</I><P>The problem with *some* of the military hardware junkies is that they have no clue about something called economics. If India cannot export, if her economy does not grow, how will we fund R&D for designing nuke devices, start large-scale production, buy strike aircrafts, etc..<P>India' economy is closely tied to her security. At this point, we can't afford to shrug the economic consequences cause we are not an economic powerhouse. Without economic growth we can't fund most of the milatry projects/acquisitions we have in the pipeline.<P><BR>Unless, of course you want India to become another North Korea??<P>
Swarup:<BR>Do you know that its the top 10% of americans that makes America great ?<P>>>By the way, I dont<BR>believe Indian scientists and engineers are that much smarter and better than those<BR>of all other nuke states-a little possibly--a lot no. And that is from personal and professional experience.<<<P>What you don't seem to realise, my friend, is the fact that indian engineers and scientists have always learnt to IMPROVISE, given their limited resources.<P><BR>If we didn't have any 'smart' engineers we'd be a banana republic like the Phillipines. Sure, you could say that we reverse engineer and colloborate but, why reinvent the wheel?<P>We tested our weapons to force Pakistan's hand, to force them to test, to study their blasts and to learn from that. We had a working arsenal before that, it was tested, just not in our backyard. Proof? Well, maybe I'm just lying thru my teeth!
A few things first.<BR>Indian estimates of POK-2 yield were based on:<BR>1) Seismic methods<BR> - Magnitude of Mb wave. Has attenuation problems - i.e stations far-away will read less magnitude. Also simulataneous explosions cause interference. This is a typical wave equation effect. If you understand partial diff eqns, this is a potential field and suffers interference. If you correct the Mb values for site attentuation and interference the results are as expected. Wallace also makes another assumption- The Indian subcontinental plate is same as Central Asia. Now every schoolboy knows it is not so. There is something called the Himalayas which were caused by the folding of the Central Asian due to the Indian plate pushing against it. Kapisch! He knows it too but is acting to please his funding sources. Also Sikka has shown the test area has lot of regional variation in its geology with in kilometer ranges. <BR> - Magnitude of Ms wave. This is the shear wave resulting from the energy release. There is no attentuation for this type. The results match expected values<BR> - Close in ground accelerations. Here again measured values match similar values of tests conducted world wide.<BR>2) CORTEX. Here a cable is lowered and gets crushed during the test. You measure the radius of the hole by measuring the cable length. Then you back calculate what should be the yield that causes the cable to be of a particular length. Again this was stated in the press conference after the tests. Need to look up Hindu back issues in May '98.<BR>3) Radio Chemical analysis. Here you measure the relative abundances of the isotopes in the test soil samples(Please read a good book on Modern Physics to get what these terms mean)and knowing what you put in you can figure what the yield. RC recently stated that these samples show evidence of neutrons of 14 MeV being generated. Again a good book on physics would help in understanding what the is talking about. He cant release the results as it would reveal what was his design and also the P-5 would accuse him of proliferating!<BR>The simultaneous nature of tests and relative proximity of civilians structures required the lower value for Shakti-1. By changing the mix they can get higher reults. This was stated in the Goa Herald article which is now archived as part of the discussions on this subject.<BR>About needing further tests. The Indian tests seem to have been planned under the "Design of Experiments" methodology. I suggest you make a matrix of the different technologies involved in the five tests and you will get enlightened too! <BR>BTW, for those statistically inclined a new branch is developing- Small sample statistics and is being funded by agencies involved in limited tests due to various reasons but now primarily due to funds.<BR>The TSP problem is they have tested and have been found lacking. For instance, the claims have been gradually reduced. AQK claimed five tests on May 28-"All boosted". In July '98, Dr. Mand said one large device and four sub-kt. That means the results were not as expected or they were not communicating. They fear if they sign before India and India does something unexpected they will be found wanting. <BR>What they seem not to realize is when one has a hammer it does not matter if it is sledge or a tack - It depends on the nail. The former is needed to deter autocracies /totalitarian states while the latter is suffiecnt for democracies. They do not have any challengers in the former category.
>What you are effectively saying is that India did not test/was unsuccessful testing a thermonuclear device. <P>Vram, Ramana,<BR>Let us take the GOI's statements at<BR>face value that thermonuclear ignition was<BR>achieved.<P>My fundamental criticism is that<BR>only one (and the GOI has stated they did<BR>only test one fusion weapon) fusion test<BR>is not enough to optimize light weight<BR>thermonuclear designs.<BR>Even if India doesn't care about MIRVed<BR>warheads, several tests of a known warhead design are required for proving the reliability and repeatability of a warhead.<BR>A DOE statistical batch size > 1 is needed.<BR>preferably much greater. <P>This has been the experience of all the other<BR>nuclear powers that have had serious thermonuclear waepons programs. It is<BR>also clear based elementary principles of scientific experimentation and good engineering practice. Any reasonably complex<BR>engineered system such as<BR>an airplane, car, or computer requires rigorous qualification testing.<BR>Computer simulation can guide you to the optimal design and reduce the amount of testing required, but the final product<BR>still requires robust testing and failure<BR>analysis based on real LIVE tests. This<BR>is all the more true of warhead devices<BR>in which there are extremely fine tolerances<BR>on all components from the fission trigger<BR>to the shape of the fusion chamber, radiation reflectors, and secondary etc..<P>Again, what I take issue with is BARC's<BR>statement that they have a proven, weaponized<BR>thermonuclear warhead with Only One Test.<P>Are we all expected to suspend belief at<BR>the engineering diffuclties involved<BR>(as evidenced by the experience of the NWS)<BR>and blindly accept such irresponsible statements. What particular dispensation<BR>absolves GOI and BARC scientists from <BR>healthy skepticism and critique based on<BR>fundamental principles, practices, and previous experience.<P>What are they trying to achieve with only one<BR>test? As a demo its fine. As a basis and<BR>foundation of a deterrent and nuclear doctrine, it is manifestly ridiculous.<P>If India were to say that its deterrent is<BR>only to be based on fission weapons, then I<BR>don't have a problem. But it is the statement of only one thermonuclear device<BR>being sufficient that I take issue with<BR>as being inconsistent with a credible<BR>deterrent (minimum or otherwise).<P><BR>Shirish,<P>i dont disagree with anything you said.<BR>just was trying to make the point that<BR>indian engineers and scientists are capable of being as good as any in the world but should not get cocky as to think they are necessarily better.<P>ive found actually that Indians are intellectually first rate, but for a variety<BR>of reasons seem to fall short sometimes when it to actual hands on hardware implementation<BR>and prototyping. <BR>
When we had P-II the whole world, including USA, had no clue about the event. AVB had to annouce this to the world. If only he had kept quiet, we could have forever tested our Nuclear weapons...
Ring in the new millineum with a series of 10 nuclear tests - starting at 12 mid night on 12/31/1999 and finishing at 1/1/2000 4:00 am!<BR>What an auspicious event that would be! It would be quite memorable for the rest of the millineum.<P>Then sign the CTBT before Republic Day and release a 1000 white doves on Republic Day!<P>
<< When we had P-II the whole world, including USA, had no clue about the event. AVB had to annouce this to the world. If only he had kept quiet, we could have forever tested our Nuclear weapons... >><P>The whole purpose of having nuclear weapons in the first place is to deter agression. You don't deter anyone by hiding your weapons in a closet and keeping their existence secret.<BR>
There have been arguments for and against the GOI's claim of having tested a thermonuclear weapon. I am not sure which is true. But I am sure all of us will agree that if the tests were indeed a failure then the GOI must go ahead and test these weapons. NATIONAL SECURITY MUST NOT BE COMPROMISED just because GOI declared a morotorium on testing or because the Indian scientists don't want to eat their words (or accept failure).<P>If you failed, accept it, learn from the failure and keep trying till you succeed. Remember Failure is the stepping stone to success Remember the 1st test flight of Agni.<P>Personally, I feel that claiming 1 test is enough is quite bogus (inspite of 90's knowledge base & marginal technical superiority of Indian scientists?) because we got to have reliable bombs. What if a bomb that we drop does not work as expected? The other nuke powers are not so foolish as to test bombs several times if the tests were not useful.<P>WE NEED PERFECT BOMBS. Not radioactive shells that will also explode. QUALITY ALWAYS MATTERS.<P>The Indian scientists need not prove to anyone in the world that our thero test was a success. But the Indian citizens have a right to know the truth. If the test was a failure, people will appreciate if scientists accept failure and work on perfecting the bomb.<P>I believe Indian economy is quite resilient (like our culture ). Remember US cannot afford to ignore a large, growing market like India. What will all the COKE, PEPSI and tobacco companies (to name just a few) do if India decides to kick them out in the face of sanctions? Just open up all the sectors of economy (Insurance, Press etc) and US will forget the word "sanctions". You can trust them to come up with some innovative explanation as to why sanctions need not be imposed on India after India conducts its third round of tests
If you look at the issue with the amount of information we forum members have - it would seem that no number of tests is sufficient. And after that no amount of nuke delivery system testing will be adequate. Someone will always want more.<P><BR>Perhaps there is an easy way out - ironically suggested by Pakistan.<P>Why not conduct "unique" tests of missiles and warheads by launching them at targets that we want annhilated in Pakistan, China and any other cities that we may want to see flattened.(we can hold a public debate on that) That way we don't have to worry about accidentally launching missile, and we won't have to worry about FMCT, CTBT, DND, deteerence or any of these big words or acronyms.<P>Why not huh?
The question being asked is ' Is one test sufficient?' This has two levels of answers- technical and political.<BR>First the technical. A fusion based device consists of - a trigger, a fission based primary (could be boosted), a secondary and an optional tertiary heavy metal blanket. Of these the crucial ones are the first two.<BR>Kalam in his book 'Vision 2020' states that the first element is a unique design. RC in his many interviews <BR>stated that the second element was a boosted primary. Let’s examine the test series and see what we can learn.<P>Technology S-1 S-2 S-3 S-4 S-5<BR>Trigger x x x x x<BR>Pu x x <BR>U x<BR>Li-D x<BR>Boosting x<BR>Fission x x x x x<BR>Fusion x<BR>Dirty Pu ?<BR>Heavy isotopes ?<BR>Sources: Various interviews of RC in India Today, Hindu, and Frontline<BR>Last item: "Why two more?" Indranil Banerjee- SAPRA site: <A HREF="http://www.subcontinent.com" TARGET=_blank>www.subcontinent.com</A> <P>From above matrix looks like triggers and fission are well under control. To explain more would bring<BR>all kind of legal problems. It is better to read up some good material like- Garwin archives at fas.org site<BR>or Carey Sublette's primer. While doing this think about the fact that the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT)<BR>which prohibits underground testing > 150 kt came into effect in 1976. Yet there are reportedly weapons having higher than that value, in inventory with both the primary nuclear powers and these are designed later than 1976. How can this be by the logic being presented in this thread? Testing only does not get reliability. It has to be designed in. If the technology is not well understood then repeated testing is required. S-1 appears to be a confirmation test, not a lets fire one and see what happens.<BR>The Indians had two opportunities to repeat S-1 but did not choose to. The first was on May 13 along <BR>with the other two. The next was May 30th when TSP conducted their sixth test. But these were not awailed of. One reason was they were satisfied with their results. The second was the international community had accepted them. The consensus value for the mb was 5.2-5.4. The Wallace paper and other reports started surfacing, after the Singh-Talbott talks were well underway- late August '98. These look at only the mb values and ignore all other evidences. Knowing that mb gets attenuated and is subject to interference this report is for other than technical purposes. Was Wallace being disingenuous? No! His charter to look at mb values and come to a conclusion limits him.<BR>The other level is political for lack of better term. What is really being asked is -How can we trust these bozos, who have never appeared to deliver and are surrounded by a veil of secrecy? And there are repeated allegations by ex-employees/ experts - e.g. Goplakrishnan, Subba Rao et al. <BR>You are not alone in this. The TOI had an editorial on Sept 14, 1999 " Explaining the Doctrine" they plead for more transparency as part of the debate. I think the right questions to be asked are- what is the extent of the BARC knowledge of this process? How long have they been studying it? What is the research background? How long has the option being pursued? When was the weaponization decision taken? What PM directives have provided oversight? All these are to establish a body of evidence to lend credibility to the claims. <BR>In my opinion the reason why people question BARC is we do not know their credentials. By this I mean if a prominent US scientist says something it is taken as gospel truth (Veda vak). This is because they have been working on this for a long time and talking about it. While Indians at BARC have been working for a long time too, they are constrained by the Hamlet attitude (to test or not test) of the Congress govts. in power for all these years. Secrecy was essential as pressure was brought many times. But is has also caused unnecessary pain a la Wallace and other misinformation campaigns. I thought the NSAB would recommend the constitution of a stockpile stewardship program and also suggest a white paper on the evolution of nuclear India to set to rest all this controversy. However they seem to want the ambiguity to continue. I think this will not do as the primary purpose of the tests was to assure the adversaries and the Indian public which has paid for all this programs that when needed India would not be found wanting. Sunderji, in the wake of the CTBT debate said the only reason to test was to reassure the Indian public, as the propaganda by the anti-nuke lobby was so virulent that the credibility was being effected.<BR>Webmaster might consider archiving this thread?<BR>Caveat:<BR>Offcourse all this becomes moot if the Republicans stall the CTBT in the Senate.
<< Of course all this becomes moot if the Republicans stall the CTBT in the Senate. >><P>Question for the forum brain trust:<P>Assuming CTBT deadline goes kaputt, i.e. it is stalled by the US Senate and not brought to a vote this year, what in your opinion, are its political (not legal) credentials worldwide? In other words, let's hypothesize a situation in, say, the spring of 2000:-<P>CTBT is being spurned and bad-mouthed by the US Senate and Republican bigshots; India, Pak and the US have refused to sign it; Pakistan tests a DingDong IRBM and Gobar Ayub Khan says something like, "And we have the big-bang warheads to go with it, so India watch out!", or words to that effect. India decides to have a Pokhran III and conduct, say, a half-dozen underground tests.<P>What does "international opinion" say? <P>Please let's try and game-theory this thing in a sensible, balanced manner and stay away from rhetoric like "Those damn foreigners can go to hell, I don't care what they say", etc.<P>Regards,<BR>Mohan<BR>
Gohar can wave what he wants. There is no need to test anymore. Why create debris in our own land? What the world wants to do with him is their own problem. <BR>As for India it has its doctrine and the relevant para tells the people in charge what to do if he makes the mistake of letting his mind do what his mouth is saying. The world powers have bigger problems than India's.Nuke blackmail etc will set off alarm bells in copycat threats- Libiya, Taiwan, N Korea etc. POK-II and Agni-II are the insurance policy so that medieval mindset does not take over our neighbors leaders. What is more important is to improve the economy and show the Indian public why it is important to elect people who have their interests at heart and not Swiss bank accounts which are probably compromised. Need to show resolute strength in leadership that gets elected.
For a contra opinon to what I say read what T. Jayaraman says in latest Frontline: <A HREF="http://www.the-hindu.com/fline/fl1619/16190910.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.the-hindu.com/fline/fl1619/16190910.htm</A> <BR>Dont know what to say. Being in US constrains one from explaining the while logic of this process without getting into legal problems.<BR> So as the saying goes "If ignorance is bliss its folly to be wise"<BR>But peopl elike this will undermine the local people's belief in the system gradually unless they are countered.
From the NATION , Puki newspaper.<P>India plans to test multiple nuclear devices <P>WASHINGTON (APP)-A leading English newspaper published from Vancouver, Canada has<BR>reported that India is planning to carry out another series of nuclear tests in Pokhran,<BR>Rajasthan.<BR>The newspaper, quoting its reliable sources; "engaged in agriculture transportation and trade<BR>in Rajasthan who have kept their eyes and ears open with revenge in their hearts" has<BR>reported feverish tell tale night time activity near Pokhran and revealed that India is ready to<BR>test multiple nuclear devices.<BR>The newspaper Chardi Kala is the same newspaper, which last year, according to New York<BR>Times correctly predicted India's nuclear tests. Former Pakistani Ambassador Riaz Khokhar<BR>had then brought this fact to the notice of the US State Department.<BR>The New York Times story headlined, "The Blunder: Scooped on Tests, US Scorns a Sikh<BR>Journal," said "The Central Intelligence Agency may have missed India's preparations for its<BR>nuclear tests this week, but a tiny weekly newsletter by a Sikh separatist group did not." The<BR>NYT story further said that Chardi Kala International predicted that plans were well under way,<BR>three days before the explosions.<BR>The latest issue of Chardi Kala International has now reported that India is being assisted in<BR>that effort in Pokhran by an unidentified "foreign friend who wants to circumvent the CTBT,<BR>whose nationals with a strange accent were spotted shopping for jewellery in Jodhpur and<BR>Jaipur."<BR>Though Chardi Kala did not identify the ôforeign friendö but the Indian media has been full of<BR>stories about Arab anger against Indo-Israel nuclear cooperation ever since the Arab<BR>LeagueÆs Secretary-General protested a few weeks ago. "<BR>
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