Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Calvin
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Calvin » 04 Mar 2004 18:11

Repost from other thread with additional notes:

9/11/2001 - Attack on WTC/Pentagon
9/16 - 66 FBI/CIA agents land at I'bad, go to Quetta, Peshawar (Weekly Independent 35 (3) Feb 19-25, 2004)

9/25/2002 - Francis Taylor (Dir FBI) visit I'bad, cameras installed at 156 sensitive points in K'chi. FBI office set up at Midway House near K'chi Airport. FBI monitoring phones, faxes and intenret. In other cities, FBI reported to be using offices of Soft-Drink MNC and transportation of UN. By October 2002 reported to have 44 offices in Pak, and 12 in Afgh. (Weekly Independent 35 (3) Feb 19-25, 2004).
11/2002 - US issues proliferation concern regarding KRL

3/2003 - US Sanctions on KRL

5/2003 - Armitage visits to discuss sanctions on KRL

6/24/2003 - Musharraf meets Bush at Camp David.
6/2003 - Addressing a public rally while Musharraf is at Camp David, Gen. Aziz Khan says that people in uniform 'should not play politics'. Describes the US as the “no. 1 enemy of the Muslim world”. Goes on to say that resolving Kashmir would not lead to peace between India and Pakistan. ISPR attempts to supress the story, which is reported in the Washington Times.

7/2003 - Fazlur Rehman visits India.

8/2003: Musharraf's ceasefire proposal rejected by the Indian government.
8/2003: Laloo Prasad Yadav visits Pakistan
8/5 - 05-08-2003- Gen. Musharraf Visits IV Corps HQ and talks to Zarrar Azim about matters pertaining to state of preparedness, training, administration and welfare of the troops http://www.pakistanidefence.com/news/MonthlyNewsArchive/2003/August2003.htm
8/29 - Pakistan states no link with Iran program

9/3 - Pakistan to send troops to Saudi
9/4 - JF-17 flies at Chengdu, CAS Kaleem Saadat on hand.
9/5 - Pak China sign Def Assistance Protocol
9/5 - CJCSC Gen. Aziz to visit Bangladesh for 5 days
9/14 - CJSCC Gen. Aziz visiting Sri Lanka for 5-day visit
9/16 - Corps commanders meet at Lahore

10/1 - Armitage criticizes Pak support for resurget Taliban (in DC)
10/1 - Musharraf convenes JCSC meeting to brief chiefs on meeting with Bush
10/2 - Jamali meets Bush at DC
10/3 - Hatf III tested
10/4 - Two days earlier on the 4th of October, German charter freighter BBC China destined for Tripoli with an unlisted cargo of centrifuge parts loaded in Dubai was diverted to the Italian naval base of Taranto with the co-operation of the owners. The intelligence for the operation became available to the UK and US in September. The components had been acquired through AQ Khan's procurement network of international fixers, in this case largely from Malaysia, via a Muslim Sri Lankan middleman in Dubai.
10/5 - Pakistan launches "offensive" against Taliban
10/6 - Abizaid, Rocca and Armitage visit Musharraf (Army House), Provide CIA documents on AQK links to Iran/Libya
10/6 - Azam Tariq is gunned down
10/6 - Azam Tariq and 4 companions assassinated in his car in Islamabad. Some 70 protestors attempt to storm ISI headquarters but are turned away by SSG troops.
10/8 - Pakistan tests Shaheen I
10/8 - Pakistan launches "crackdown" on Zalikhel-Qarikhel tribe in South Waziristan
10/13 Chmn JCSC Gen. Aziz leaves UK for US on 6-day visit.
10/14 - Ariel Sharon declares once again that Libya may become the first Arab country to build the bomb, with the help of North Korea and Pakistan. Unlike his statements in September 2002, Iraq’s name is absent from the list of those providing assistance to Libya, and there is much greater certainty over Pakistan’s involvement.
10/15 - Hatf IV tested
10/15 US Admrl Vern Clark visits I'bad
10/16 - US declares Dawood Ibrahim a terrorist based in Pakistan
10/18 - Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah visits
10/18 - Borchgrave warns of Pak Nukes being moved to Saudi
10/18 - Pak-China naval exercise in Shanghai
10/20 - ARD President Javed Hashmi convenes a press conference to release a letter written by dissident PA officers. Army leadership is described as corrupt and incompetent, and Musharraf as a traitor to the cause of Islam for his assistance to the Coalition in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The letter urges parliamentarians to seek greater accountability for Kargil and other matters. Hashmi is arrested a week later.
10/20 - ACM Kareem Sadaat visits China for 7 day visit
10/22 - Jamali visits Iran reaches agreement on "defence cooperation" with Khatami
10/22 - India announces 12-step CBMs
10/22 - Indo-China border meeting in New Delhi
10/23 - Pakistan and Turkey reach agreement on "defence production"
10/29 - Javed Hashmi arrested
10/30 - Saudis announce extension of $1 billion "oil facility"
10/31 - Musharraf visits China
10/2002 - Special Investigation Group (SIG) set up to help FBI. 117 officers to be trained in US over next 3-4 months (Weekly Independent 35 (3) Feb 19-25, 2004)

11/1 - China agrees to help set up next phase of Chasma nuclear plant (CHASNUPP)
11/3 - Pak-China sign defense agreement.
11/5 - 5-6 NOV 2003: Pakistani Education Minister Zubaida Jalal visits Washington DC to meet NSA Rice, Dty Sec Def Wolfowitz, Asst. Sec State for South Asian Affairs Rocca and senior members of Congress to discuss reform and control of Pakistani madrassas.
11/5 - Dawood reportedly moves from Karachi to Islamabad following US tag of "global terrorist"
11/6 - Pakistan protests bugging of HC in London
11/8 - Iranian delegation led by a deputy foreign minister, Gholam Ali Khoshru, arrived in Islamabad, use "careful formulation" to say they had acquired components and designs in '87 from the black market -- they mentioned Dubai -- and said two of the individuals involved were of South Asian origin, though not from the same country. They hinted they were under scrutiny from the IAEA and would have to make these declarations" about who had supplied the technology. - One South Asian is Tahir (Sri Lankan), is the other AQK?
11/13 - Iran admits to enriched uranium
11/13 - Centcom chief Gen. Lance Smith calls on Musharraf.
11/14 - Pak says agrees with new US "strategy" on terrorism
11/15 - Pak receives CIA report on proliferation
11/16 - Pak re-bans 3 terrorist groups
11/20 - IAEA letter to Pakistan on proliferation
11/2? - Pak team visits Vienna (IAEA)
11/? - Pak team visits Iran
11/24 - Ceasefire offer

12/3 - Banned terror groups bank accounts frozen
12/6 - First four nuke scientists debriefed
12/8 - US launches "Operation Avalanche" in Afghanistan
12/8 - Amir Mir (journo) that broke the D-Company operations in Karachi warned, finds car burnt down by ISI agents.
12/14 - Assassination Attempt on Musharraf
12/14 - Saddam Captured
12/16 - Bhutan launches operations against ULFA
12/17 - Musharraf makes unscheduled visit to Lahore to meet outgoing Corps Commander Gen Shahid Aziz and new CC Zarrar Azeem. Also met Lt. Gen (R) Khalid Mqbool (Punjab Gov) and Punjab CM Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_19-12-2003_pg10_4
12/17 - India to resume flights
12/17 - Musharraf says Pakistan is "flexible on plebiscite on Kashmir" http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_19-12-2003_pg1_1
12/19 - Libya owns up to Nuke Program
12/19 - US Marine Corps Commander Mike Hagee visits I'bad.http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 003_pg10_4
12/20 Karachi and Gujranwala get new Corps Commanders. Tariq Waseem Ghazi (K'chi) moved to NDC commandant, replacing Javed Hassan who moves to Gujranwala replacing Khalid Munir who moves to QMG at GHQ replacing Ahsan Salim Hayat who moves to K'chi. http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_21-12-2003_pg1_4
12/21 - Yusuf leaves for KSA and Egypt "to increase defence cooperation"
12/22 - AQK is questioned for the first time
12/26 - Assassination Attempt on Musharraf (Real one?)

1/2004 (date not clear) Omar Sheikh moved from Hyderbad jail to Rawalpindi, reportly in connection with Musharraf assassination investigations. http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_27-2-2004_pg1_8
1/1 - Asher Karni arrested at Denver for selling 400 spark gaps to Pakistan - nuclear triggers also used in medical equipment
1/1 - Parliament Endorses Musharraf's presidency
1/4 - SAARC Summit ends
1/6 - India/Pak Agreement for dialogue
1/6 - US says Musharraf not involved in Libyan nukes
1/8 - Pak launches "offensive" on Afghan border
1/12 - Brajesh in China for Border Talks
1/13 - Bush announces strategic ties with India
1/13 - Hurriyat invited for talks on 1/22
1/17 - Abizaid meets Musharraf, and then Yusuf, departs Chaklala AFB
1/17 - Top Hizb commander killed in JK
1/17 - Eight more nuke scientists to be debriefed
1/18 - Gorshkov deal signed
1/21 - Sinha meets Bush, Powell discuss next steps on strategic path
1/21 - Powell says Musharraf is taking "right steps"
1/22 - Hurriyat agrees to a "durable" solution
1/23 - Musharraf meets Cheney at Davos "we will act over nukes"
1/24 - David Kay replaced
1/26 - New Afghan Constitution is signed into law
1/28 - US plans for "spring offensive" publicized
1/28 - Gen. Yousaf visits Shahid Aziz Siddiqui in Lahore and briefs him on on matters of preparedness, training, administration and troops welfare and morale (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/print.asp? ... 004_pg10_5)
1/29 - GHQ to be shifted to Islamabad
1/29 - AA missiles around Islamabad noted
1/29 - Pakistan Joint Chiefs meet
1/31 - AQK removed
1/31 3 member IAEA contingent in Pakistan - http://www.paktribune.com/news/index.php?id=53549

2/1 - AQK admits guilt
2/5 - Tenet admits intel lapses in Iraq
2/5 - Musharraf pardon's AQK
2/6 - Kamran Khan discloses that CIA report was provided in October by US, revealing that profits from sales went back to Pakistani Authorities
2/8 - Musharraf says AQK can keep his money.
2/8 - Musharraf talks to Powell, Powell to visit Pak soon.
2/8 - Brajesh and Kasuri in Munich
2/8 - NYT says Pak weapons are implosion type similar to Nagasaki weapon - implies Pu device
2/8 - US says that Pak nukes under US Liaison Committee control, including launch codes and PALs.
2/9 - Pak says AQK not given "blanket" pardon - probably result of Powell conversation.
2/11 - Bush announces his policy against WMD.
2/11 - CIA team including Tenet in "Secret" visit to Islamabad via Chaklala base. Arrive at 7pm Wed night, leave on Thu afternoon.http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 004_pg1_5; http://www.dawn.com/2004/02/13/top5.htm
2/12 - Musharraf, at National Defence College (Islamabad?), admits Pak forces launching attack into Afghanistan, must be stopped
2/12 - Musharraf makes unscheduled visit to Karachi amid tight security.
2/13 - Jamali also makes unscheduled visit to Karachi http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/feb2004-daily/21-02-2004/metro/k7.htm
2/13 De Villepin in ND meets with Shashank
2/13 - Rocca (Asst Secy State) meets Shashank and Arun Singh, key Indian negotiators ahead of Feb 16 I-P meeting. Nancy Powell said in ND on "private visit" will meet Pak HC Aziz Ahmed Khan. GAIL said to explore opportunities in Pak Gas.
2/13 Rumor that Home Ministry orders cricket tour of Pak cancelled. Aziz Ahmd Khan (Pak HC) calls Shashank to plead that the rapprochement would hit the skids if this happened. Khan calls Shashank 3-4 times till Shashank replies, being caught up in meetings with DeVillepin. Shashank talks to Sinha. Riaz Khokhar calls SS Menon in Karachi with same plea. Sinha talks to Vajpayee regarding this on 2/13 evening.
2/14 Vajpayee indicates that the tour is back on.
2/14 Musharraf in Karachi, meets Corps Commander, Lt-Gen. Ahsen Saleem Hayat and discuss matters relating to "operational preparedness, administration and welfare of the troops."
2/14 Pioneer reports that the Pak scientists who went to Myanmar are believed to be in China.
2/15 AQK suffers a heart attack
2/15 Dawood reported to have had facial reconstructive surgery
2/15 Pak officials meet Salaluddin of Hizb Muj, advise HM to press for ceasefire as jihad was not an option. The (Friday Times) weekly said Pakistan government also applied some psychological pressure on Salahuddin. "He was given the example of the seven Hijbul Mujahideen guerrillas who surrendered before the Director General of Police Gopal Sharma (in Srinagar) on February 14 and (was) told that India had acquired state-of-the-art satellite signal interception capability from Israel that had helped it reach Ghulam Rasool Dar and Abbas Rahi, the two key Hizb commanders who were killed by the Indian security forces last month."
2/16 Jamali to visit Tehran for D-8 summit, will talk about Iranian gas for India
2/16 Talks with India/Pakistan begin
2/17 Pakistan launches operations in S. Waziristan
2/17 Yasin Malik threatens agitation in AJK
2/17 Shashank transits through Karachi en route to I'bad
2/17 two Laskhar-e-jHangvi leaders arrested in Karachi
2/18 295 dead in train explosion in Mashad, Iran
2/18 Pakistan agrees to Indian fence construction? Schedule set for continuing meetings - Mar 9 (Muzz/Srinagar bus); May 2nd week (Nuclear CBMs); June '04 (drug trafficking); July '04 (Wullar Barrage, Sir Creek, commercial cooperation); Aug '04 Foreign Minister level mtg
2/19 Indian intelligence reports (TOI) that the security cover provided to Dawood has been withdrawn by Pakistan.
2/19 Musharraf expresses apprehension of nuclear assets' vulnerability to foreign bombing raids - to a countrywide gathering of ulema at Islamabad. http://www.nation.com.pk/daily/Feb-2004/20/EDITOR/edi2.asp
2/20 Bush approved a $560-million grant, which will entirely go into the safeguard systems, their operation, and maintenance on Pak nuke installations. The command-and-control equipment will comprise locks, codes and software more sophisticated than what the UN has installed in North-Korean atomic installations, but no Pakistani or Muslim contractor would be engaged in putting the devices in place. Diplomats said that over the last two weeks, Pakistan president Parvez Musharraf has produced a consensus among his corps commanders, the jihadi groups, and bureaucrats in favour of the safeguard equipment. All the equipment will be controlled by satellite, and the US secretary of state, Collin Powell, has rejected a Pakistani plea to buy the software, locks and codes from Germany.
2/20 10-member US delegation led by Asst Secy State for ArmsCntrl (Steve Rademaker) met Tariq Osman Hyder (addnl secy) and Riaz Khokhar (Foreign Secy) to discuss non-prolif, regional nuke CBMs, Missile Defence and IAEA findings. "The Assistant Secretary conveyed US views that in certain circumstances, missile defence could contribute to regional stability and the US was ready to further discuss the issue with Pakistan" - suggesting that a nuke-nood Pakistan would have a US umbrella to protect against attack from India.
2/21 Musharraf formally inducts Hatf III (Ghaznavi) a 290-km nuke capable missile.
2/22 Sunday Telegraph reports Bin Laden sighted and boxed in.
2/22 Aziz leaves on 13 day visit to Egypt and Nigeria
2/22 Asia Times (Shahzad) reports "within the Pakistani army "to purge the elements allegedly sexed up with al-Qaeda and the Taliban"... follows the recent arrest of several militants of Uzbek origin, as well as an Arab named Waleed bin Azmi, in a raid in the eastern district of the Pakistani port city of Karachi. About a dozen militants managed to escape, while the captured ones were handed over to agents of the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, who found during their interrogations that the operators had been besieged near Wana, South Waziristan, but they were given an escape route, allegedly by officers of the Pakistan armed forces. The operators fled to Karachi, but were rounded up thanks to the local police's intelligence network. The US presented these facts to Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf - not the first time such incidents have been reported, but this time with the demands that the officers be taken to task and that US officials be allowed to take part in the inquiries to understand better the nexus between Islamists and officers in the Pakistani army. Several officers are now expected to be arrested. - suggesting that Tenet's visit on 2/11 was related to this, and the subsequent operation in S. Waziristan may have been based on the Bin Laden information received
2/22 - FBI reported to have HQ at Jalalabad, regional offices at Lahore, I'bad, Karachi, F'bad, Pindi. $4billion worth of sensor eqpt, including NVRadar, UAV, Satellite d'base. Reported checking all immigration, passports, airport security, cyber crimes, and phone conversations. They are now working independently of Pak Intelligence (Weekly Independent 35 (3) Feb 19-25, 2004)
2/22 - US and Pak reject Sunday Express claim to have Bin Laden "boxed in"
2/22 - Task Force 21 (121?) moving to Afgh, from Iraq.http://www.dawn.com/2004/02/24/top3.htm
2/23 Rumsfeld visits Iraq, reported on unscheduled visit to other countries "in the region" - may include Pak
2/26 US lifts travel and commerce ban on Libya
2/26 Safdar Hussein named Corps Commander of Peshawar replaced Lt. Gen Orakzai who retires in April.
2/27 Osama Reported captured by Iran State Radio - Asheq Hossein (Dir Pushtun Servie) claims two sources, one Shamim Syed The Nations Peshwar bureau chief. Reports only in Pashto, not Farsi service.
2/27 NYT reports that Pak 1998 tests included a NK weapon, possibly Pu based, likely 6th test.
2/27 Mufti escapes attack when grenades thrown at him.
2/28 US confirms that Beg threatened in 1990 to give nukes to Iran if US did not cntinue assistance. http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_28-2-2004_pg1_2
2/28 MULTAN: The Army has been called out in Multan to assist the local government and it was also called into sensitive areas of south Punjab like Khanewal, Bahawalpur, Lodhran, Jhang and Sahiwal.
2/28 Army called out at airports, Interior Min Faisal Saleh Hayat claims for Muharram. http://www.dawn.com/2004/02/29/top6.htm
2/29 New Yorker's Sey Hersh reports that US went soft on Pak to enable US forces in Pak to hunt OBL.
2/29 Straw to visit Pak regarding non-proliferation.
3/2 Aziz offers "nuclear power" to Nigeria's military. The announcement came less than two months after Nigeria's vice presidency announced that North Korea agreed to share missile technology with Nigeria, an offer that was subsequently denied by North Korean officials and downplayed by a spokeswoman to Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/536038.cms
3/7 Musharraf in Saudi
3/8 Zubeida announces plan to purge Pak educational material of material "hateful to India" http://www.paktribune.com/news/index.php?id=57435
3/9 Pakistan tests 2000 km Shaheen II (Shaheen I = M9), said to resemble DF3A (CSS2) except it possibly uses solid fuel.
3/10 WOlfowitz in FEER lambastes Pakistani lack of cooperation in hunting AL Qaida, indicates deal on AQK and Paki support in Afghanistan against AlQ.
3/10 Intelonline claims that BinLaden was captured 3-4 weeks ago and is in custody in Pak(may coincide with Tenets' visit).
3/10 Train bombing in Spain. Initially said to be ETA, now attributed AlQ.

Sunil
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Sunil » 04 Mar 2004 18:20

Hi,

I think Tim and TSJ's replies to my post on the aftermath of a Jihadi Delivered Atomic Munition attack on the CONUS - speak for themselves and there is nothing I can disagree with in what they have said.

South Asia is indeed a `low priority' as Tim puts it - and that is precisely why American policy in the region is such a spectacular failure. The community of researchers at large doesn't care about the region, and only a handful of people do any real work. The result is that these guys micro-manage all the US policy and come daybreak (say like Sept 11) these very same guys - who are maximally responsible for the f*ck up- are suddenly indispensible. Like a cancer - the US-Pakistan relationship chews away at the vitality of the American nation and no one can do a darn thing about it.

I do not doubt that the US will respond with amazing-awesome-stunning-ginenormous force if a jihadi group carries out a nuclear strike on its soil. I also agree that if it is `established' that the nuke came from Pakistan - the US will act with resolve against Pakistan. However because of the reasons I described in the previous paragraph, the US will never be able to conclusively `establish' that the nuke came from Pakistan.

Post 9-11 the US made Pakistan an `ally' and since then it has gone to extraordinary lengths to tell everyone that Musharraf is not responsible for the events that are taking place. People are now used to saying things like `the past is in the past' etc... The end result of all this American appeasement of Musharraf and Pakistan is that it gives the impression that Pakistan can get away with anything. There are two events we must keep in mind:

1) Sept 11 - after which Musharraf was declared a great ally of America, and

2) December 2004 when Musharraf's pardon of the nuclear black marketeer A Q Khan was blithely accepted by the US Government,

These events have given the Pakistanis all the plausible deniability they need to mount a Jihadi Delivered Atomic Munition attack.

Tim says:

" The nuanced debates of South Asian history will be irrelevant, the wolfowitzs and Rumsfelds will make the decisions".

and in my last post on the previous thread I said

" So ever so gently a door will open that has not opened before and through it perhaps unheard and unseen at first but surely will step a new kind of American leader. A leader who dispenses with the ornate psuedo-liberal gibberish of the past and speaks directly to the suffering of the people, and soothes the nervous population and pragmatically makes decisions with minimum fuss. Such a leader will have to be someone who commands the total respect of the men at arms and strikes fear into the hearts of those political creatures who stand in his path (it will have to be a man, the US has never elected a woman president - so why change now). "

So I feel we are in complete agreement there also.

I think the leader I have mentioned will have a sheet of paper in front of him, that will say the following:

1) A Jihadi Delivered Atomic Munition has been released on US soil.

2) The origin of the munition is unknown. The fissile material appears to have come from Pakistani sources - most likely from the black market of A Q Khan, but the intelligence community does not feel that the device was assembled by Pakistani hands and all the known Pakistani nuclear devices are under the supervision of a `Liasion group' run by the US intelligence community.

3) It cannot be said that there isn't another Jihadi Delivered Atomic Munition on US soil or that another attack of this nature will not take place at any moment now. There are a large number of Middle Eastern and South Asian people in the US all of whom may be considered potential suspects. There is an extremely large community of African American muslims and recent white converts to Islam in the US who can also be considered possible suspects. The Homeland Security/FBI people cannot find and eliminate such a threat even with extraordinary support from the US Defence Department.

4) The Pakistanis are the only ones that can help us find other players on the Nuclear Black Market that A Q Khan ran. It is even possible according to some signal intercepts that some elements of the Pakistani leadership knew that something was afoot. The State Department has excellent ties in Pakistan, they claim that they will be able to get US-friendly portions of the Pakistani establishment to cooperate with them and this should help us find whoever is responsible for this carnage and eliminate them.

5) The nuclear forces of all countries are on high alert. Israeli nuclear weapons crews are readying their missiles for launch at Saudi Arabia. The Indians are getting ready also. Russia, UK, France and China are on full alert. US DOD will launch nuclear attacks at the press of a button. If any sudden moves are made, it is possible that a global nuclear war could result. The US DOD isn't a position to fight all these powers at once.

6) The American people are bewildered. Having been brought up on a steady diet of `feel good' media coverage of the US government and America's place in the world, today Americans are incapable of understanding why this terrible act has happened. This bewilderment is slowly giving way to anger and despair. This is threatening to rip apart the fabric of society. Ultra-right militias are now filling the airwaves with calls for an end to the federal government, the appeal of these groups is growing. Unless the government can demonstrate resolve quickly - the entire situation will become uncontrollable.

What does one think the response to this will be? My man in the church would often say "What would Jesus do?" - so now I ask you "What would the Wolfowitzs and Rumsfelds do?"

Anantha
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Anantha » 04 Mar 2004 19:26

Nigeria says TSP wanted to sell Nukes

Islamabad's denial comes after a statement from Nigeria's defence ministry that the visiting Pakistani general "said that his country is working out the dynamics of how they can assist Nigeria's armed forces to strengthen its military capability and to acquire nuclear power."

A few other countries are remaining:
Burkina faso, Tivalu,Chimichanga etc.

Y I Patel
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Y I Patel » 04 Mar 2004 20:22

Sunil

We are seeing the results of drinking gin with Ayub and eating samosas with Zia... the next gen of friends of South Asia will come from the crowd that spent time behind barricades in Islamabad or ate snakes in Tora Bora. The next Condi will not be someone who earns her spurs counting how many angels can dance on an ICBM - she is tracking oil dollars flowing into "charities" right now. And the next Zinny will be someone who has ulcers from watching his prey escaping into the safe confines of a frontline ally's inviolable territory.

I believe I have said before that the hardest and slowest changes are those that involve mindsets. The planes have gone in, but the towers have not collapsed yet. But believe me, they will.

svinayak
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby svinayak » 04 Mar 2004 21:02

Originally posted by sunil s:

South Asia is indeed a `low priority' as Tim puts it - and that is precisely why American policy in the region is such a spectacular failure. The community of researchers at large doesn't care about the region, and only a handful of people do any real work.
This is a deliberate policy decision and for a perticular reason. There is a future outcome of this policy which they are interested.

Div
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Div » 04 Mar 2004 21:12

Memo to all Non-Proliferation Mullahs:

The sole culprit behind the current spread of nuclear weapons and the danger they pose to all of mankind is the United States of America. Afterall they were the *first* ones to test/deploy/use these weapons. It is therefore incumbent upon all NPMs to rid the United States of this horrible black mark.

Your sincerely,

Chief NPM.

Vick
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Vick » 04 Mar 2004 21:30

:whine: Waaah... Everybody bad, pakis good!!!

Pakistan Denies Offering Nigeria Nuclear Power
By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, ISLAMABAD

Pakistan on March 4 rejected Nigerian claims that its armed forces chief offered this week to help the African state acquire nuclear power.

“We are denying it. This is baseless. He said nothing of this kind,” military spokesman Major General Shaukat Sultan told Agence France-Presse.

Just one month after Pakistan shocked the world with a public confession by its top nuclear scientist to selling nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya and North Korea, Nigeria has accused the chairman of Pakistan’s joint chiefs of staff General Muhammad Aziz Khan of offering it nuclear assistance.

Nigeria’s defense ministry said Khan made the offer during talks March 3 with Defence Minister Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso in Abuja.

A statement issued in Lagos said General Khan told Kwankwoso that “his country is working out the dynamics of how it can assist Nigeria’s armed forces to strengthen its military capability and to acquire nuclear power.

Pakistan’s Information Minister Sheikh Rashid accused Lagos of mounting a smear campaign.

“This is sheer nonsense. It seems to be part of a campaign to smear Pakistan,” he told Agence France-Presse.
:whine:

Abdul Qadeer Khan, the metallurgist hailed as the father of Pakistan’s nuclear program, confessed on television last month to proliferating nuclear secrets after a two-month probe prompted by information from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has denied allegations that former army chiefs and governments authorised the nuclear sales, insisted that no proliferation has taken place since he seized power in a 1999 coup, and vowed that it would never happen again.

But he has refused to allow an inquiry by international investigators, who want to probe further to determine whether the nuclear know-how was sold to other countries.

Musharraf pardoned A.Q. Khan after he made the televised confession and exonerated the military of any role.

However in a written confession submitted five days before his televised admission, A.Q. Khan had accused two former army chiefs of “indirectly pressuring” him to proliferate, a military official told Agence France-Presse in February.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Prateek » 04 Mar 2004 21:52

India had plenty to do with Pakistan's nukes by rushing to test it's bombs. India tested *first*. Let's not forget that.

TSJ, Do you remember the year when India first tested and when Pakistanis first tested the nukes ?

If you think you know the year, then relate that year to the Pakis rushing to test its *own* bombs...

If one starts looking back, Chinese tested before Indians, and the US/UK/France/Russia tested before the Chinese. So ?

More over let me remind you and the USA, that if India had not tested the bums again, who knows by now the Pakis would have shipped the nukes to USA and after 9/11 you might have witnessed a nuke taking off in some city. What India did has helped the USA. It has drawn the attention of the world towards the real rogue nation (Pakistan) and towards its intentions. Be thankful to India, for that matter :)

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Rye » 04 Mar 2004 22:33

India had plenty to do with Pakistan's nukes by rushing to test it's bombs. India tested *first*. Let's not forget that.
Sometimes it is hard for me to differentiate between outright stupidity and willful ignorance.

Pakistan did not wake up one fine morning and test the bomb a couple of weeks after India's nuke tests.
They had the capability to test their nukes at any point in time before that, but they did not. Pointing fingers at India is just a despicably transparent ploy to whitewash the sins of the "world community" in aiding an abetting such proliferation.

Let us not forget that at the time India was about to test, the so-called "world community" headed by Halfbright at that time was intent on seeing through the CTBT's "entry by force" clause which would have disallowed India from testing *WITHOUT* India's consent, AND would have overlooked pakistani nuclear capability. If India had not tested, pakistan would not have tested its nukes, and there would have been no pakistani nukes, right?? WRONG. (yet that is the impression being conveyed with the above remark, deliberately)

India would have been restricted in its nuclear options in that hypothetical scenario and pakistan would have continued proliferating willy nilly.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Vivek K » 04 Mar 2004 22:45

TSJ, the [Lauhter]Cowboy in Shining armour[/Laughter]:
[b]India had plenty to do with Pakistan's nukes by rushing to test it's bombs. India tested *first*. Let's not forget that. [/b]
Guys don't even bother to waste time educating this guy! If this is what he comes up with then it is obvious that the US govt has succeeded in keeping their populace in the dark and foolish! He chooses to ignore the volumes about Paki Non-Proliferation activities since the 70s!!

GO TSJ!! Kill all the injuns!! GO!!

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Kuttan » 04 Mar 2004 23:05

If Iran, Iraqm KSA, Malaysia, Libya NoKo and Nigeria got Paki nuke brochures, is there any reason to believe that the following did NOT?

1. Indonesia
2. Rwanda
3. Malagasy Republic
4. Sierra Leone
5. Congo
6. YEMEN
7. Somalia
8. Ethiopia
9. Sudan
10. Zimbabwe
11. Myanmar
12. Chad
13. Morocco
14. Mauritania

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby putnanja » 04 Mar 2004 23:10

Originally posted by TSJones:
India had plenty to do with Pakistan's nukes by rushing to test it's bombs. India tested *first*. Let's not forget that.
My vote goes to TSJ for the most _____ post of the day!! :lol:

FYI, TSP has been proliferating nukes even before they tested the bomb!! Please do us a favor and go through the entire thread, and perhaps the old thread in the trash too. The test was conducted in 1998 but it began its nuclear proliferation much earlier!!

If we take your analogy further, US is responsible for TSP's nuke program. After all, China got nukes to counter US, and India got nukes to counter china and TSP to counter India's. So please shut it off at the source before giving us a sermon!!

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Kumar » 04 Mar 2004 23:11

Nigeria's nuclear power 'mix-up'

Its a funny "marham-patti" from our familar BDMs from BBC. You shee, it is all Nigeria's fault! Poor Pakistan's name is being dragged through mud by those Nigerians who keep on coming up wild accusations one after another. First about missiles against N. Korea and now about nukes against Pakistan. Can any one in their right minds even suspect N. Korea and Pakistan of such crimes!! It is just Nigerians being unable to comprehend the "true meanings of typographical errors". :) Well BDMs of BBC might give them a close fight though.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby James Bund » 04 Mar 2004 23:21

A couple of things:

The Jihadi bomb will detonate in Palo Alto-it will decapitate America, killing its brightest and most ambitious and destroying the foundations of America's lead in nanotechnology, biotech and informatics in the next 10-20 yrs. As an added bonus it will kill several thousand Hindus.

The American response will be-nothing, paralysis.And yes Pakistan's stock will soar.Nobdy is going to invade anybody. A moment's reflection will reveal why.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Rye » 04 Mar 2004 23:21

My response was not directed at TSJ, who I believe was just pushing buttons, but it was meant for other lurkers who might have similar views.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby VirenH » 04 Mar 2004 23:41

Originally posted by Rudra Singha:
> We've only just begun to tighten the screws down.

with $700 mil aid, 40 free AH-1F gunships, new 3D radars and other modes of punishment....
tigthening screws or being screwed by ally who's 'tight' - jury's still out :D

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby payani » 04 Mar 2004 23:46

I dont see much difference in the mindset of both these posts. Apologies in advance If I am reading too much into them.

Originally posted by Tim:
I think TSJ does have one important point, though. If the US were attacked with a nuclear weapon, that would change all the rules ******. Those rule changes would have very serious security implications for India.
Originally posted by TSJones:
India had plenty to do with Pakistan's nukes by rushing to test it's bombs.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby AnantD » 04 Mar 2004 23:47

Posted by TSJ
"Well, let me tell you something, Pakistan is under threat from military action by the US *right now*. Pakistan is playing a very fine game here. One mis-step and they are gonna lose it all. The US will take action in Pakistan if no results are produced."

TSJ, no offence, but how are we going to explain to the US public that we are now attacking a KEY Ally, this is unheard of historically. With the deficits and all, will the American public, Harkin and Kerry, even allow Bush to do what he should have done right after 9/11????

Only if Bush decides he isn't running for a second term, and that ain't gonna happen. But still, its never too late.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby payani » 04 Mar 2004 23:48

Originally posted by Calvin:
Repost from other thread with additional notes:

9/11/2001 - Attack on WTC/Pentagon
Great work. Thanks on behalf of all.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby TSJones » 05 Mar 2004 00:09

V. Payani:

I dont see much difference in the mindset of both these posts. Apologies in advance If I am reading too much into them.


You are seeing the majority view of middle American educated (well, for me, semi educated) opinion. This is what you have to work with.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Vick » 05 Mar 2004 00:13

A nuclear attack on the US is in no one's interest due to many reasons. Not least of which will be the American reaction. By what TSJ and Tim have said and by what I have read, seen, and heard, the US reaction to such an incident will be nothing short of rogueish.

The last thing this world needs is an entity as powerful as the US to go rogue.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Abhijit » 05 Mar 2004 00:28

Sunil:
These events have given the Pakistanis all the plausible deniability they need to mount a Jihadi Delivered Atomic Munition attack.
Sunil boss, this is something that I do not fully agree with. Before 9/11 the average American hadn't even heard of pakistan - much less being aware that it is a snakepit and full of jihadi anti-american beards. Between 9/11 and AQK confetti revelations, a large no. of americans (the ones TSJ refers to as middle educated (or semi-educated) americans came to know about pakistan and have more or less equated it with a snakepit. They don't know the extent of danger it poses to America but they sure as heck are aware that Pakistan is no good and is up to no good. Post AQK confetti incident, even semi-literates in America will have a single name recognition if you mention nukes and proliferation in the same sentence - that is Pakistan.
IMHO, this -ve publicity of Pakistan will actually be a stick that Americans will beat Pakistan with. If there is a nuke incident in America, the average Joe Sixpack will actually demand the blood of Pakistanis and Mushy's head on a platter, all the state dept. shenanigans notwithstanding.
In case of a nuke incident on CONUS, even Dubya's spin machine will not be able to find any other target to attack than Pakistan. The Paki army and establishment may think that they have bought plausible deniability with American establishment, but they have lost it big time with the American public.


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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby kgoan » 05 Mar 2004 01:08

Folks, you seemed to have missed the point Brer Fox and friends are making:

Whether it's deliberate or not, what Brer Fox has just told us is that if a nuke goes of in the CONUS, the US isn't going to blame Pak Land. They're going to blame India.

Get used to it. And plan for that.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Abhijit » 05 Mar 2004 01:25

KG, do you think it is feasible to make Iraq out of India? Even for the mighty spin machine? Iraq was a soft target - it was easy to sell Iraq because US had been there, done that. Plus there were ulterior motives in waging war on Iraq. To what end would they make the same play with India?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Sunil » 05 Mar 2004 01:27

Hi,

> educated (or semi-educated) Middle-American opinion is this.

If the Pakistanis drop a Jihadi Delivered Atomic Munition on America, I don't think these subtle distinctions between shades of American opinion will matter.

> consequences on India's security.

Okay so lets cut throught the cr*p.

Right here Right now.. Pakistan is supposedly America's biggest friend and ally, with Pakistani support the War on Terror whatever the f*ck it is - would be over.

With me so far?

so lets say that now - a "rogue Pakistani nuclear scientist" (Lets call him Babdul Xadir Whan) sells a nuclear weapon to a Jihadi group, and that groups smuggles the weapon into the florida keys (just like the Movie True Lies) and detonates it.

Now what is the US going to do?

a) Shrug - and say ---- aah Keys-Schmeezze.. who needs them? - screw it I am going to go party on South Beach!!!

b) recoil in horror - and say - WTF was that? Who did that?

My guess is that they are going to say (b).

Lets say that at that point - the US Army people are going to say - well actually the bomb was made with Pakistani nuclear material - so lets bomb the f*ck out of the b*stards.

Now Pakistan's Ambassador will say:

"NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO... the Bomb was made from stuff smuggled from Pakistan in 1983 - we have BCCI receipts for the payment to prove it. The Pakistani government does not approve of this misuse of its Uranium. The people of Pakistan love the US and the florida keys.. suckee suckee" and then on all TV channels Musharraf and the entire Pakistani nation will drink farm fresh florida orange juice to prove their loyalty to florida - the sales of Jeb Bush t-shirts will go through the roof in Pakistan.

Obviously.. America will not be convinced - as TSJ and Tim point out.

So at that point the Pakistani Ambassador will say - "ah Great American General Saaaaar - if you use a nuclear weapon against Pakistan, India will think of invading Pakistan - and then India will launch its nuclear missiles at Pakistan and then Pakistan will be killed and India will become a super-duper-power and then short dark rice eating non-martial people will become the rulers of South Asia".

As soon as he says this the "South Asian Mafia" will step in and say "Yes Yes Mr. President, if you are going to nuke Pakistan, you must nuke India also. because India and Pakistan are part of the same system of states, they are all equal equal. Pakistan has nuclear weapons because India has nuclear weapons and blather blather blather.."

So what is the president going to do?

Tim - TSJ, is the president going to nuke India too ? to keep up the equal equal?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby NRao » 05 Mar 2004 01:36

If the US gets nuked and we reasonably think it came from Pakistan, you might want to get concerned if you are downwind from the prevailing weather patterns in Pakistan.
TSP IS stupid, what is your excuse?

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by TSJones:
India had plenty to do with Pakistan's nukes by rushing to test it's bombs. India tested *first*. Let's not forget that.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My vote goes to TSJ for the most _____ post of the day!! :lol:
Don't laugh. "TSJ" has not heard of China - downwind.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Roop » 05 Mar 2004 01:39

Originally posted by Vick:
A nuclear attack on the US is in no one's interest due to many reasons. Not least of which will be the American reaction. By what TSJ and Tim have said and by what I have read, seen, and heard, the US reaction to such an incident will be nothing short of rogueish.

The last thing this world needs is an entity as powerful as the US to go rogue.
I'm afraid you are not following the debate here. No one doubts that the US will react with violence and savagery to a nuke attack on its soil. Everyone (well, almost everyone) doubts that the violent/savage response will be against those responsible for the attack. Rahter, it will be against some conveient target-of-opportunity that had nothing to do with the attack. Thus, nuke attack on US by Pak/China means US savage/violent attack will be: </font>
  • <font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">Nuke Damascus and Teheran</font></li>
  • <font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">Invade Cuba</font></li>
  • <font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">Impose sanctions on Russia and India</font></li>
  • <font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">Get "good and loyal friends" China and Pakistan to aid in effort of policing "rogue states that were responsible for dastardly attack against the US".</font></li>
  • <font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">Threaten miltary strikes against India if it does not immediately cede Kashmir, Punjab and Rajasthan to Pakistan, and West Bengal to Bangladesh.
    </font></li>
<font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">P.S. Remember Paddy's book?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby NRao » 05 Mar 2004 01:43

Uncle has painted a nice picture with a Good/our-side TSP vs. Islamic rogues running amuck. It is the latter that can do the job - if at all. No amount of chest thumping can make Uncle let loose a nuke on TSP. Uncle at best will occupy KSA, TSP, Yemen and the like.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Shashank » 05 Mar 2004 01:45

Golden words Sunil.

You are echoing the majority view of middle Indian educated (well, for me, semi educated) opinion.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby kgoan » 05 Mar 2004 01:49

Abhijit, in the madness of the first few hours after a nuke goes off, they can do whatever they want.

And what they want, as Brer Fox tells us, will be to blame India as having "started" it. They have no choice. Either they blame someone else or they admit that *everything* they did post 9-11 with respect to Pakistan was wrong.

And that will lead to all sorts of questions as to *why* they got it wrong and *who* was responsible for getting it wrong.

So they won't do that. No-one is going to take the chance that the Cohen-types might get dragged, shrieking, through the streets and strung up from the Washington Monument. Too many people have too much to lose in the Beltway. So they'll blame India.

So says Brer Fox. And who are we to argue with him about how *his* folk will respond. So, be prepared for it. And let them know we are.**

**How? Dunno. Maybe in classical Yindoo style some IA general can publish a book on an Indo-US conflict or something. You know, just to get the message out.

Oh wait. . .

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Rangudu » 05 Mar 2004 01:51

Who is Brer Fox? :confused:

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby daulat » 05 Mar 2004 01:51

if US public opinion is clamouring for the flat-pakistan option and GOTUS is pushing the front-lyin'-all-lie option - then that leads to a breakdown in the governance of the US? perhaps it goes to the military party option, perhaps it leads to more complex patterns of disintegration - militias and the like

[shudder] so wouldn't al-q actually be willing to sacrifice TSP if it achieved the end result of breaking up america? [/shudder]

now lets think about other consequences... india would surely like to find a final solution to the kashmir problem by rearranging the boundaries to what it shows on the map, hell i'd want that for starters...

so what does china do? accept? or intervene? they don;t need the xinkiang highway so badly anymore and now TSP is written off by unkil anyway - maybe they walk away; particularly if tehy feel lots of nukes pointing their way...

with a disintegrating US, does china reintegrate taiwan?

does a panicking no-ko hit tokyo?

i think i've just scared myself silly...

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby TSJones » 05 Mar 2004 01:53


Tim - TSJ, is the president going to nuke India too ? to keep up the equal equal?


Since India did develop its bomb in response to what it saw as a hegemonic America AND Bush has directed research and development to produce a low yield nuclear war heads to be used as pin point retaliation, India's nuke production facilities could be in danger if the US is attacked with a nuclear bomb and India refuses to give her bombs. That's a reasonable assumption, yes. :roll:

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Sunil » 05 Mar 2004 01:57

TSJ,

I don't indulge in idle talk. A yes/no is all I am asking for.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby daulat » 05 Mar 2004 01:59

Originally posted by sunil s:
TSJ,

I don't indulge in idle talk. A yes/no is all I am asking for.
he said yes, but i don't follow the logic. sounds a bit like al-q hit the WTC, lets invade saddamland

hmmm... i was never very good at logic class, so maybe i missed something

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby TSJones » 05 Mar 2004 02:00


I don't indulge in idle talk. A yes/no is all I am asking for.


Then, no.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Y I Patel » 05 Mar 2004 02:00

Suddenly this discussion is less about US policy vis a vis Pak and more about winning an argument against Tim and TSJ. Deep breath, anyone?

Thanks.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Shashank » 05 Mar 2004 02:02

Originally posted by TSJones:

Tim - TSJ, is the president going to nuke India too ? to keep up the equal equal?


Since India did develop its bomb in response to what it saw as a hegemonic America AND Bush has directed research and development to produce a low yield nuclear war heads to be used as pin point retaliation, India's nuke production facilities could be in danger if the US is attacked with a nuclear bomb and India refuses to give her bombs. That's a reasonable assumption, yes. :roll:
If you want to enter fantasies, how about this? India sensing danger to her from US, converts herself into Islam and becomes an open Al-Keeda? Together with Pakistan and Bangladesh... taking orders and money from Islamic cash box? If fighting 2+ billion muslims is your idea of revenge then you are... Ofcourse this is a fantasy and leaving out all initial signals by India like further nuke tests and testing of ICBMs.

Added later:

ohhh yes... my uncle's ......... told me that India's assured second stike also involves sending appropriate goodies and brains behind them to all the right places depending on who the aggressor is. :roll:

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby TSJones » 05 Mar 2004 02:03


he said yes, but i don't follow the logic.


And I was asked "have you stopped beating your wife" question.


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