Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

daulat
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby daulat » 08 Mar 2004 14:45

small suggestion, given the prospect of confusing people with the term JDAM, lets qualify it to JDAM(P) to signify that we mean a pak specific thingy

i get the feeling that TSP proliferated as an insurance policy against Unkil, i.e. disperse the assets into multiple hands so that Unkil will never be able to guarantee that TSP has no comeback to Unkil's pressure, hence Mushy does what he wants (so mushy is willing to risk WW just to get Kashmir...)

the prolif. roll back now on suggests that Unkil is getting meaner and keener about OBL take-down and putting the pressure on Mush

so far Unkil has rolled back Libya, contained Iran, and probably bought off North Korea - which is probably what they want

that still leaves JDAM(P) potentially out in the open somewhere

the lack of noise these days about missing Ukranian warheads suggests that those are accounted for, probably not all Pak production has been accounted for by those nice 'guest workers' from the FBI and CIA currently helping out the TSP economy must have only secured x% of the production, leaving y% unaccounted for

its also possible that the triggers have been accounted for, leaving only HEU missing - hence focus on dirty bomb

I am guessing that the psychological impact of a dirty bomb will be orders of magnitude greater than the actual health risks posed by one? except ofcourse of dropping Pu in the water supply, etc., etc.? Don't understand the physics well enough

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Sunil » 08 Mar 2004 18:10

Hi,

> Dirty bomb - no more deadly than a conventional bomb - so problem kya hain?

I think the cleanup will involve dumping tons of radioactive waste, plus working in a dispersed possibly airborne contaimination area is a major pain. High levels of exposure will impose a very high cost on the health system and there will be the cost due to panic in the people. I think they call it a Weapon of Mass Disruption.

A dirty bomb is still more manageable than a real nuke and hence the `solution' in the movie Peacemaker i.e. to stop a nuke distort the explosive lens - though I have a hard time believing that a physicist would get anything done if his colleague looked like Nicole Kidman.
I would think rather than defusing the nuke time would be spent on saying things like " You know what the temperature of the core of the Sun is? 1 Billion degrees, I think you are way way way way way hotter than that!!!!"

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Kuttan » 08 Mar 2004 18:17

I am guessing that the psychological impact of a dirty bomb will be orders of magnitude greater than the actual health risks posed by one? except ofcourse of dropping Pu in the water supply, etc., etc.? Don't understand the physics well enough
As always, for sheer technical accuracy AND perspective, one goes to the best: N^3 news at ur service.

From "Google":

Dirty Bomb Home Page
Charles Ferguson on The Dirty Bomb

And the detailed report:

Commercial Radioactive sources: Surveying the Security Risks

Recommended reading.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Alok Niranjan » 08 Mar 2004 19:11

Originally posted by sunil s:

I think the cleanup will involve dumping [b]tons
of radioactive waste, plus working in a dispersed possibly airborne contaimination area is a major pain. High levels of exposure will impose a very high cost on the health system and there will be the cost due to panic in the people. I think they call it a Weapon of Mass Disruption.

[/b]
I am willing to buy the "panic factor" but I was more curious about the physical aspects.

Let us assume 1 kg of U-235 dispersed uniformly over a 100 meter diameter. (not being a Jehadi, my JDAM(P) parameters may be quite inaccurate, so apply your own jehadi-enhancement-factors).

This amount of U-235 will result in 2-3 disintgrations/second/cm^2 ... very high but hardly a killer if you keep the exposure down to a few minutes (for those who can run away).

Those that can't run away are either dead or decapcitated due to the conventional blast ... hence the question, "in what way is a dirty bomb more lethal than a conventional bomb?".

[disclaimers: 1) The situation is truly deadly if the JDAM(P) contains the same amount of Pu-239 2) it is more difficult to estimate the inhalation dangers downwind from the blast-site ... ]

so do you think there is a jehadi out there with a kilo of pu (as opposed to kees of poo)? :)

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby daulat » 08 Mar 2004 19:50

my schoolboy physics memories are that a kilo of HEU is easier to handle than a kilo of Weapon grade Pu - the latter would be pretty much impossible without serious quantities of lead and cement (??) or contained in a warhead?

so a kilo of Pu doing the rounds sounds pretty unlikely to me. someone would have spotted it and jumped on it asap

i believe that even a few grams of Pu would be bad enough, particularly if dispersed in fine powder - ofcourse I don't know if it can be so dispersed, but its presumably toxic enough

as for the other stuff, mr jehadi is full of poo anyway, so plenty of that going around

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby James Bund » 08 Mar 2004 20:05

To be more effective need gamma source not alpha emmitter. Actually the health system would see very little additional burden until 10-20 yrs later with increase in cancers. The question would be to clean up, imperfectly, at a high cost or abdon the city at an even higher cost.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Rudra » 08 Mar 2004 20:13

we have already seen the impact of anthrax on
SD mailroom (it was closed for few months).

JDAM(P) if released in D.C. Mall area would do a
quick job of clearing the most prestigious real estate in america.

an alternative capitol , govt depts would have
to found. perhaps in a secure location like greenbriar hotel in virginia!

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby daulat » 08 Mar 2004 21:13

Originally posted by Rudra Singha:
JDAM(P) if released in D.C. Mall area would do a
quick job of clearing the most prestigious real estate in america.

are you sure, isn't there an element in teh psycology of fixing it and showing that the eagle flies unfettered and unbowed through glorious skies? pour encourager les autres?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby ramana » 08 Mar 2004 21:48

I think enuf has been said on this stuff. Time to move on.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Raman » 08 Mar 2004 23:25

Western observers cannot believe that Pakistani authorities were not complicit in the clandestine transfers. The state's concern was about developing nuclear weapons and not letting its operations become a free-for-all. Such clandestine transfers clearly did not - and could not - benefit Pakistan. Any implication of the government risked international isolation. There was also no strategic sense in the government in transferring nuclear know-how to neighbouring Iran. Transfers to North Korea made even less sense, because they would have certainly provoked the wrath of the US, Japan and China. Equally irrational were transfers to Libya, which had little to offer Pakistan. By the mid-1990s, Pakistan had already procured missiles superior to North Korea's Nodongs. Why transfer its nuclear "crown jewels" for something of secondary strategic importance? No Pakistani leader would have approved such transfers.
When reading the above defence, I was struck by a strong sense of deja vu. And then it hit me --- this is the classic chewbacca defense.

Read it and weep --- this is the level of security thought of visiting Professors of the Naval Postgraduate School ... :roll:

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Rye » 08 Mar 2004 23:31

Originally posted by narayanan:
Remember the Urdu version of the Mushspeeh, circa Sep. 15, 2001? Where he quoted from Quranic lessons on how to align with the Enemy until the weapons were good and ready and opportunity presented itself?

Just think of the sheer gall it took to be transferring nukes to Libya while the Americans were all over Karachi and Jacobabad.
Or the fact that Aziz made a speech in Nigeria about giving them nukes AFTER the whole AQK stink occurred.

Also, I now hold that the military point of transferring parts and materials to several countries was to gain "plausible deniability" when the "SlumBad Bum" goes off in some American city or other suitable target.
I completely agree. Mushy's peace dance with India and "cooperation" with the US on nuke issues , will be used to enhance "plausible deniability".
Of course, pakistani "experts on south asia" in various naval academies and other "think tanks" will further push the hoax, with willing help from the dimwitted americans who call themselves "south asian experts".

Suddenly the old question: "Why did they go ahead with the 9/11 attack, knowing that it would mean the end of their networks? What comeback had they planned?" starts bothering me again.
I think they know the weak points of the US, just like the blackmailer needs to know the fears and weakness of his victim before sucking them dry.

The answer may be: "Because the SlumBad Bum aka JDAM was ready for use."
I think the paki army/RAPE smell the american fear of allowing jihadis to get control of nukes, and if one thinks like a paki, you *know* that the first thing a paki RAPE would do in this situation is hand over nukes to the very people that the US believes should never ever get a nuke. The proliferation to Libya AND Iraq has proven this point effectively. Given that the jihadis are now global, this weapon could be anywhere in pakistan, Myanmar, Phillipines, Malaysia, Indonesia, or in the middle east, or any one of the lawless african countries, starting with nigeria.

Given that the pakis are currently playacting "full nukular cooperation" with the west, then such a weapon has already left their hands to some jihadis by now.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Sunil » 09 Mar 2004 00:09

The problem would be from exposure through airborne contamination and even people with shrapnel injuries would suffer severe somatic effects as the sharpnel would be irradiated. Also if this goes off in a city you will see people from all age groups exposed, and the very old and very young tend to die quickly when exposed - so I mean you have one old age home or one nursery within the dispersal radius and that will jack up the death toll by ~50, add another 50 for each school or playground or park within the dispersal zone, plus scratch another 50 first responders (cops+firefighters) due to severe exposure. Pretty soon the numbers start to add up.

I guess so long as the people exposed are not at the top echelons of government, there should be no major disruption in government functioning or emergency services. The only disruption will come from media induced panic - which could be kept under control with censorship.

Quite frankly I would tend to dismiss anything less than 1500 civilian casualties as being militarily insignificant but thats not how everyone feels. I sense that the problem is purely a psychological one. Even a nuke that way is unacceptable for the same reason.

The RDD would achieve a fairly good dispersal through the air with a little bit of creative thinking. IIRC the van used in WTC1993 was lined with a toxic chemical - an attempt at a CW of some sort. Fortunately the material did not disperse, can't say they will make the same mistake twice.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby D Raman » 09 Mar 2004 00:23

Originally posted by jrjrao:
Folks, this dude bears watching. Like Nasim Zehra, he has deep access into Amrikee academic and other circles. And here, he is circling the wagons and defending the MushTush, while sitting as a "visiting professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California."
<hr>
If anybody is interested more in this dude, please contact me at drdraman at yahoo dot com. I have been in touch with him personally.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby AJay » 09 Mar 2004 01:48

Get your VCRs ready for recording. Received in email today.

----------------------------

Nightline Daily E-Mail
March 8, 2004


TONIGHT'S FOCUS: He is a hero in his own country. But it turns out he was selling nuclear weapons technology to America's enemies. So why isn't the U.S. more upset?

You've probably never heard of him, but A.Q. Khan is a hero in Pakistan. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that he is responsible for Pakistan's nuclear weapons program. But he is more than that. He headed a network that sold the technology and the information needed to develop nuclear weapons to Libya, Iran, and possibly North Korea. The network was finally discovered, and its scope is still being determined. In a lot of ways, it sounds like a spy movie, except that it's very, very real.

Much of the network was uncovered in the end. And what happened? The President of Pakistan, a close ally of the U.S. in the war against terrorism, pardoned Kahn. It's important to remember the context here. The concern over the spread of weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear weapons, is one of the driving forces of American foreign policy. The administration, as we all know by now, justified the invasion of Iraq in part by arguing that Saddam was trying to develop WMD's and had to be stopped. So why has the American reaction to the discovery of Khan's actions been so muted? We can certainly speculate, as there are lots of reports of a so-called "spring offensive" aimed at finally finding Osama bin Laden with the help of the Pakistani army, that Pakistan is more important as an ally. Bin Laden is thought to be somewhere in the border area between Afghanistan and Pakistan, an area over which the Pakistani government has little control. But the Pakistani army is apparently moving into that area in larger numbers than ever before. Is there a trade-off?

It's a fascinating story, reported tonight by Chris Bury along with producer Jay Lamonica. I hope you'll join us.

Leroy Sievers and the Nightline Staff
ABCNEWS Washington D.C. bureau

-----------
If you have questions or comments regarding this message or a recent "Nightline" broadcast, please do not hit reply; simply click on this link to send your message directly to the "Nightline" staff:

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Did you know that ABCNEWS.com can also send you a daily email from ABCNEWS Political Unit? Get the daily political scoop from our insider sources. Click here to sign up!

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby ManuJ » 09 Mar 2004 03:17

Originally posted by AJay:
Get your VCRs ready for recording. Received in email today.
Thanks AJay, that certainly sounds interesting!

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby putnanja » 09 Mar 2004 04:28


Leonard
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Leonard » 09 Mar 2004 05:00

Israel considered destroying Pak nuke facilities in 1979


PTI[ MONDAY, MARCH 08, 2004 10:28:44 PM ]

WASHINGTON:" Israel, which successfully destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor, also considered a preemptive strike to destroy Pakistan's nuclear facilities, according to State Department papers relased by the National Security Archive, a private research agency.



Newly declassified papers obtained by the Archive shows that at a Friday morning session on September 14, 1979 of the US General Advisory Committee on Arms Control and Disarmament, Assistant Director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency Charles Van Doren discussed "apparent Israeli consideration of military action against Pakistan ."



The United States itself, he said, had not discussed (with Israel ) "preemption plans."



The declassified paper provides no further details but it is known that AQ Khan, Father of the Pakistani nuclear bomb, and others had described Pakistan's nuclear bomb as an "Islamic bomb" and rich Islamic countries like Saudi Arabia and Libya reportedly provided financing while China provided technical aid, nuclear materials and a design for the bomb.



Blueprints stolen by Khan from the Netherlands enabled Paistan to build centrifuges to refine uranium to bomb-grade.


Israelis planned to take out KRL

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Gudakesa » 09 Mar 2004 05:55

Hi,
Correct me if I am wrong, the point that people seem to be making here is that the conventional theory and regime of deterrence that has been accepted for the last 50 odd years has broken down. This breakdown is because some of the assumptions behind deterrence theory no longer hold-that of rationality of the actors involved and the idea of Mutually Assured Destruction. The nuclear proliferation by Pakistan has made it possible for non state actors to get hold of nuclear weapons, as well as made information about the possesion of nuclear weapons on the part of a particular actor suspect or incomplete. The existence of non state actors with nukes means that the Mutually Assured Destruction and Rationality assumptions go out of the window because the motives of these actors are not known and in the eventuality of a use of a weapon, it is no longer possible to identify the perpetrator with certainity.

I would think that a possible reason for the present show in american and other international media about nuclear proliferation by Pakistan may be an attempt to restore some part of the assumptions behind a conventional deterrence regime. It is possible that this is a process by which the existence of non state actors is accounted for by holding Pakistan accountable for any potential nuclear strike, so that its destruction as a state is likely in such an eventuality. I find it hard to understand why else all this information is being released at this particular time, given that successive US Govts probably have been aware of this proliferation for several years now.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Kuttan » 09 Mar 2004 06:03

I find it hard to understand why else all this information is being released at this particular time, given that successive US Govts probably have been aware of this proliferation for several years now.
Gudakesa, u are the nth person to ask that question - but none has carried that curiosity further (except urs truly of course :cool: ) to its logical conclusions, in the light of previous systematic logic and reasoning.

Let me ask you too, what I asked Guru Sunil etc. some time back, with no sign of being heard:

Assume for a moment that the nook-nood theorem is proven (as it IS, of course..)

THEN consider the question above: viz., "why :whine: now?"

The answers become a LOT more interesting then.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby svinayak » 09 Mar 2004 06:05

Originally posted by Gudakesa:
Hi,
Correct me if I am wrong, the point that people seem to be making here is that the conventional theory and regime of deterrence that has been accepted for the last 50 odd years has broken down.
The longest lasting inter state relationship was formed by the treaty of westphalia. It was followed by the theory of deterrence. After the cold war anarchy reached a different level with non-state actors and state support creating a lethal combination.
A mix of pre-emption, sanctions and balance of power strategy with anti-terror methods will be used to create stable regions in the world according to some analysts.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby shiv » 09 Mar 2004 06:14

Originally posted by sunil s:
Hi,

> Dirty bomb - no more deadly than a conventional bomb - so problem kya hain?

I think the cleanup will involve dumping [b]tons
of radioactive waste, [/b]
The US economy is so big that it currently does not seem to notice little blips - I will explain what I mean by little blips.

9-11 for instance has "shifted the mood" in the US to one of paranoia and homeland security - apart from the billions lost in the actual loss of trade/tourism from the WTC. The US is also a "health conscious society" with a high degree of aareness and opinions on stuff considered "unhealthy"

Poorer societies like that in India appear callous because society (me, we, us) will happily allow the poorest and most deprived people to work ina hazardous environment - at least out of general ignorance if not deliberately. That does not happen much in the US.

So if you have a dirty bomb that takes down one building in Washington/NY/LA the whole friggin area will be cordoned off and nobody will go in there without CBW suits. And there will be a furthe paroxysm of paranoia in the US - with the color of alerts going from Orange to Red to White, Blue and into invisible spectra.

Each such attack is only a "blip" for the US but 5 or 6 such attacks will be a sufficient number of blips to make a small change in course of the economy and society. These are imponderable unpredictable things - but that is exacly the sort of thing that Al Quaeda will be hoping for IMO. Even teh way America is reacting to 9-11 is a "victory" for Al Quaeda in a sense.

It is not the actual damage that a dirty bomb does which is importanat - it is the effect it will have on the US.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby NRao » 09 Mar 2004 08:15

OK. Real tamasha about to start.

Nuke watchdog tackles violations

How can you all discuss such serious matters without the U.N. atomic watchdog in the picture is way beyond me. I mean, the dog has not even barked and you guys are talking about such serious matters?

And we now hear of the "S" word. Only in relation to Iran though.

"Pakistan" is mentioned exactly twice in this Sutra.

Looks like Uncle wants to tame the Iranian dog without having to part with a bone. Nice tricks these owners perform now-a-days. (And look who is in tow and who is opposing Uncle. Very interestign tamasha.)

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Alok Niranjan » 09 Mar 2004 08:22

someone quite important on this forum said that enough had been said on the subject and it was time to move on ... however, other important folks have not moved on, so it seems to be fair game ...

regarding a JDAM(P) on the Mall in DC: unless someone can show calculations that point otherwise, it seems that the damage on the Mall will be restricted to the tourist content in a 100 meter radius, some fried trees and a layer of topsoil approximately 10 cm deep to be excavated and dumped ... the buildings are too far from the Mall to be affected ... there will be an aerial plume that will affect those who snort it but will be blown away and dispersed ...

so what really is the damage estimate of a JDAM(P)? ... it doesn't even come close to a 9/11 type of attack.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby shiv » 09 Mar 2004 08:41

Originally posted by Mani T.:

so what really is the damage estimate of a JDAM(P)? ... it doesn't even come close to a 9/11 type of attack.
The problem lies in YOUR personal intelligence and analytical ability. You are comfortably able to dive into issues like levels of radioactivity, rate of decay per second, radius of damage, possible concentration of radioactive material etc.

All this is very very impressive and many of us on this forum bow down in admiration to this tremendous, yet nimble and sure-footed display of a wide swathe of knowledge.

The problem is who is going to explain to the public that a dirty bomb is really no problem - it's OK to have a dirty bomb explode in the center of a US city. If that is the point you are trying to get across - you will have to communicate it better to the people who are going to be in a state of panic.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Alok Niranjan » 09 Mar 2004 09:09

Originally posted by shiv:
The problem lies in YOUR personal intelligence and analytical ability. You are comfortably able to dive into issues like levels of radioactivity, rate of decay per second, radius of damage, possible concentration of radioactive material etc.

All this is very very impressive and many of us on this forum bow down in admiration to this tremendous, yet nimble and sure-footed display of a wide swathe of knowledge.
well received ... would you have it any other way? :)

The problem is who is going to explain to the public that a dirty bomb is really no problem - it's OK to have a dirty bomb explode in the center of a US city. If that is the point you are trying to get across -
No.

you will have to communicate it better to the people who are going to be in a state of panic.
no one had to communicate to the people what was happening when 9/11 happened ... so why should it be different with a JDAM(P)? ... Uncle will simply regroup and bomb some unsuspecting country ... why do YOU claim to know otherwise? :)

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby shiv » 09 Mar 2004 09:35

Originally posted by Mani T.:
well received ... would you have it any other way? :)
no one had to communicate to the people what was happening when 9/11 happened ... so why should it be different with a JDAM(P)? ... Uncle will simply regroup and bomb some unsuspecting country ... why do YOU claim to know otherwise? :)
Sorry I cannot recall claiming that I know otherwise.

I personally think a dirty bomb is a bad idea and that you are wrong in dismissing its effects as being of little consequence. But it is your prerogative to maintain your viewpoint.

I also think that a "dirty bomb" will go off only because a nuclear detonation failed - not because someone tried to set off a dirty bomb per se.

Anyhow that brings us to what an "important member" was perfectly right in saying. You think a dirty bomb is no problem. I think it is a problem.

So what?

Time to move on.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Alok Niranjan » 09 Mar 2004 09:39

Originally posted by shiv:
I personally think a dirty bomb is a bad idea and that you are wrong in dismissing its effects as being of little consequence. But it is your prerogative to maintain your viewpoint.
not "little" ... I asserted that it was of limited consequence ... not the "end of the world" as some had claimed.

I also think that a "dirty bomb" will go off only because a nuclear detonation failed - not because someone tried to set off a dirty bomb per se.
your opinion is noted. I, for one, refuse to second guess a jehadi :)

Anyhow that brings us to what an "important member" was perfectly right in saying. You think a dirty bomb is no problem. I think it is a problem.

So what?

Time to move on.
yes sir ... let's move on :)

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Alok Niranjan » 09 Mar 2004 10:05

what is it that they say about a horse and the barn door? enjoy ...

Pakis rushing to close the barn door

Rule change bans N-material export

By Our Reporter

ISLAMABAD, March 8: The commerce ministry has introduced amendments in the Export Policy and Procedures Order 2000 to restrict the export of certain products. According to the SRO111 released on Monday, the amendments were introduced in the schedule-III of the export order.

The notification reads: As for S.No7, 8 in column (1) the entries relating to them should be substituted - namely "nuclear substances, radioactive materials and any other substance or item covered by Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority Ordinance, 2001 (III of 2001)" and "equipment used for production, use or application of nuclear energy or activity including generation of electricity and spares related to these", respectively.

The export of these would be as per procedure notified by the Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority, added the notification.

:lol:

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Alok Niranjan » 09 Mar 2004 10:10

lookie here ... my buddy hoodie has a chela in silicon valley ... what's the relationship between the hoodies?

Hoodbaby is Clean

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby AJay » 09 Mar 2004 10:36

Originally posted by shiv:
Each such attack is only a "blip" for the US but 5 or 6 such attacks will be a
Sorry. 9-11 was no blip. We are yet to see the contours of the rearranged politico-economic world.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby daulat » 09 Mar 2004 14:08

more clarifications needed since we are now mixing up the full blast and the dirty bomb

so

JDAM(P) = nuclear warhead originating in Pakistan
JDAM(PD) = nuclear material dispersed in conventional explosion, also originating in Pakistan

in both versions the JDAM part holds

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby shiv » 09 Mar 2004 14:18

Originally posted by AJay:
Originally posted by shiv:
[b]Each such attack is only a "blip" for the US but 5 or 6 such attacks will be a
Sorry. 9-11 was no blip. We are yet to see the contours of the rearranged politico-economic world.[/b]
Ultimately, for the US a "blip" or "no blip" depends on how much the US economy is affected.

The US economy WAS affected by 9-11, and I see plenty of evidence to say that the US will recover from 9-11 and come out stronger blah blah blah.

But what happens if two, three or four such "blips" occur? By spending trillions sorting other nations out, I am guessing that it will only be a matter of time before even the US does not have the resources to sort something out. In theory, that situation could be described as "the limits of US power"

If you ask me, the US response to 9-11 with increased homeland security and the takeover of Afghanistan and Iraq - the US made it look like a cinch. One attack on the US and the US will do so much - two countries taken over, US economy recovering, military related industry never as strong as now.

But even now I am seeing "The limits of US power". The US admits to being unable to sort Pakistan out the way it handled Iraq nd Afghanistan. The US needs Pakistan, because it is outside US power capability to sort out Pakistan and clean up Pakistan. And the perpetrators of 9-11 are still at large.

If the US decides that it is powerful enough to clean up Pakistan that is fine - the US may well do that. But the resources it puts into Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan will ensure that US power gets weaker somewhere. I can't say where - could be Korea or Sough America, or in relation to China.

We are actually seeing the limits of US capability to sort things out - other than the lightly stated assurances on this forum that the US will bomb some country to hell. And as the US reaches the limits of its capability, we are still left with the threat of JDAMs and JDAM(P)s and Dirty bombs.

If the US needs PAKISTAN as an ally to get as far as it has done in its war against terror, I shudder to think of what allies the US may have to make to get Pakistan sorted out. The need for allies is a serious weakness and an indicator of the limits of capability - that much is clear. I don't mean to be insulting - but that is what it looks like ot me.

If 9-11 was more than a blip, how many more blips or semi-blips can the US take before its weakneses are further exposed?

JMT

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby daulat » 09 Mar 2004 16:25

I don't think that the US is planning on taking any more blips of any sort. which indicates to me that no state players are able to weild a nuclear threat to the US any more. It also indicates that most JDAM options have been closed down, although there could still be some unaccounted for JDAM's lurking around and Unkil will be trying to get his hands on them right now

reinforces the Nooknood theory, but does not convince me that stray JDAMs are not on the loose

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Kuttan » 09 Mar 2004 17:23

Sorry to distract folks from all this fine debate, but I need more translation help.

http://in.rediff.com/news/2004/mar/08inter.htm
The Rediff Interview/Benazir Bhutto

ZIA WANTED TO DEFEAT AMERICA


March 08, 2004
....
What is now known is that after defeating the Soviet Union, Zia wanted to defeat America. Everyone in Pakistan used to say, 'Amrika nay ek kutta pala, Zia-ul Haq uska nala.' They used to say this and what people don't realise is that in Pakistan at the mass level Zia was so abused that it was all for the nuclear programme, this was because he was an American dog. They used to call him 'Amrika ka kutta', they never called him by his actual name.

He tried to tell everybody that he was not doing it for America, but for Islam and after defeating the Soviet Union he was going to defeat America and make Islam the greatest power in the world.

So somewhere after 1987, according to press reports, he offered this to Iran...
As I recall, Musharraf is Zia's "nala".

BTW, what is "nala"

To get these things to rhyme better, I would suggest the following change:

'Amrika nay ek kutta pala, Mushy Gola uska nala.'

Sridhar
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Sridhar » 09 Mar 2004 17:45

Change the nala to sala and it sounds even better. :)

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Sunil » 09 Mar 2004 17:54

Hi,

> dirty bomb

Can the US take such a hit - most certainly it can - Americans are a tough people and America is a big rich country.

Does the US want to take such a hit?- No Americans are not stupid.

Gudakesa has summarized this thread. Pakistani proliferation activities have opened the door to the possibility that terrorist groups already have the bomb. We do not know if the Al Qaida are rational, but we do know the following:

1) All old nuclear warfighting scenarios should be discarded. Each of those studies was brought out with a simple purpose - to deter a rational nuclear adversary. The Al Qaida may not be rational.( Tim Note )

2) Musharraf was supposed to prevent the Al Qaida from getting hold of a bomb. He has failed.

3) With Chinese support, Pakistani nuclear proliferation, and North Korean missile sales, a large number of new nuclear armed states have emerged. That is a lot of new names to keep track of, no one quite understands how this will change the regional conflicts.

4) The Non-Proliferation Treaty was supposed to create safeguards against this sort of thing. The treaty and those who worked on it have failed.

5) Shutting down Pakistan's nuclear black market is going to be quite difficult but allowing people like A Q Khan to get away with this is going expand the ability of the Pakistanis to deniably launch a nuclear strike against the US.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Vivek_A » 09 Mar 2004 17:56

Not to worry..The saudis are "allies against terrorism". Their ads on TV say so..
PAKISTAN, SAUDIS FOCUS ON DEFENSE COOPERATION
ABU DHABI [MENL] -- Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have launched an effort to complete a defense cooperation agreement that would pave the way for weapons sales by Islamabad to Riyad.

The effort took place over the weekend during a visit by Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to Saudi Arabia. Officials said Musharraf's meetings with Saudi officials focused on defense and security cooperation as well as prospective weapons sales.

Musharraf, who ended his visit on late Sunday, was accompanied by four ministers including Minister of State for Defense Production Habibullah Warraich. The Pakistani delegation met Crown Prince Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz, Defense Minister Prince Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz and Saudi intelligence chief Prince Abdul Aziz Bin Bandar, and a Saudi statement said the meetings were meant to bolster bilateral relations.

Western diplomatic sources said that over the last year Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have been discussing cooperation in counterinsurgency, missiles, nuclear weapons and military aircraft. They said Pakistan has sought to win Saudi approval for the signing of contracts in some of these fields.
What military aircraft is TSP going to sell the saudis? crop dusters?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Tim » 09 Mar 2004 20:46

Sunil,

Noted. :)

You raise, as always, good points.

Tim

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Roop » 09 Mar 2004 20:49

The Non-Proliferation Treaty was supposed to create safeguards against this sort of thing. The treaty and those who worked on it have failed.
Sunil,

True, but the NPT didn't just "fail". It is more accurate to say that the NPT was deliberately subverted by a subset of its signatories.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby arun » 09 Mar 2004 21:49

Excerpt from Counterpunch article, The Veep and Pakistan :

Bush, Vice President **** Cheney and top members of the administration reacted with shock when they found out that Abdul Qadeer Khan, Pakistan's top nuclear scientist, spent the past 15 years selling outlaw nations nuclear technology and equipment. So it was sort of a surprise when Bush, upon finding out about Khan's proliferation of nuclear technology, let Pakistan off with a slap on the wrist. But it was all an act. In fact, it was actually a cover-up designed to shield Cheney because he knew about the proliferation for more than a decade and did nothing to stop it.
Another excerpt:

It seems that today, Cheney is advising President Bush to deal with Pakistan's nuclear proliferation much in the same way he did more than a decade ago. Give the country a pass, lie to the public about the seriousness of the matter and tell Pakistan you'll turn the other cheek if the country agrees to allow U.S. troops to use its borders to hunt for Bin Laden before the November election.
The Jan 2002 article in Mother Jones referred to, available here.


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