Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Kumar
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Kumar » 10 Mar 2004 00:29

Amrika nay ek kutta pala, Zia-ul Haq uska nala.'
(America had a pet dog, whose name was Zia-ul-Haq)
This is an aside, but Zia was indeed derided in Pakistan.

There was this story of ISI being asked to investigate the mystery of postage stamps bearing a picture of Zia not sticking properly. After a long investigation ISI concluded that people were actually applying the spit on the wrong side.

(Just a joke :D )

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby ramana » 10 Mar 2004 01:07

The counterpunch article approaches the issues but shies away from reading the tealeaves right. The TSP would have paid for the F-16s with US money. It has no money of its own.

So what Cheney was doing is providing nuke delivery means to TSP. Against whom and to what ends? And note by 1989 the Cold War was over by any measure. So what was going on?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby jarugn » 10 Mar 2004 08:37

A nuclear 9/11

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/10/opinion/10KRIS.html

A Nuclear 9/11
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF

Published: March 10, 2004
A 10-kiloton nuclear bomb (a pipsqueak in weapons terms) is smuggled into Manhattan and explodes at Grand Central. Some 500,000 people are killed, and the U.S. suffers $1 trillion in direct economic damage.

That scenario, cited in a report last year from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, could be a glimpse of our future. We urgently need to control nuclear materials to forestall that threat, but in this war on proliferation, we're now slipping backward. President Bush (after ignoring the issue before 9/11) now forcefully says the right things — but still doesn't do enough.

"We're losing the war on proliferation," Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr., a military expert and executive director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, says bluntly.

Until recently, nuclear trends looked encouraging. President Kennedy and others in the early 1960's expected dozens of countries to develop atomic weapons quickly, but in fact controls largely worked. Even now, only eight nations definitely possess nuclear weapons.

And there's more good news. While I believe that the invasion of Iraq was a mistake, at least Saddam Hussein won't be making warheads soon. Likewise, partly thanks to Mr. Bush's saber-rattling, Libya is abandoning its weapons program.

But all in all, the risks of a nuclear 9/11 are increasing. "I wouldn't be at all surprised if nuclear weapons are used over the next 15 or 20 years," said Bruce Blair, president of the Center for Defense Information, "first and foremost by a terrorist group that gets its hands on a Russian nuclear weapon or a Pakistani nuclear weapon."

One of our biggest setbacks is in North Korea. Thanks to the ineptitude of hard-liners in Mr. Bush's administration, and their refusal to engage in meaningful negotiations, North Korea is going all-out to make warheads. It may have just made six new nuclear weapons. Then there's Iran, which has sought nuclear weapons since the days of the shah, and whose nuclear program seems to have public support. "I'm not sure there is a way to get an Iranian government to give it up," a senior American official said.

Finally, there's the real rogue nation of proliferation, Pakistan. We know that Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Islamist father of Pakistan's bomb, peddled materials to Libya and North Korea, and we don't know who else.

"It may be that A. Q. Khan & Associates already have passed bomb-grade nuclear fuel to the Qaeda, and we are in for the worst," warns Paul Leventhal, founding president of the Nuclear Control Institute.

It's mystifying that the administration hasn't leaned on Pakistan to make Dr. Khan available for interrogation to ensure that his network is entirely closed. Several experts on Pakistan told me they believe that the administration has been so restrained because its top priority isn't combating nuclear proliferation — it's getting President Pervez Musharraf's help in arresting Osama bin Laden before the November election.


Another puzzle is why an administration that spends hundreds of billions of dollars in Iraq doesn't try harder to secure uranium and plutonium in Russia and elsewhere. The bipartisan program to secure weapons of mass destruction is starved for funds — but Mr. Bush is proposing a $41 million cut in "cooperative threat reduction" with Russia.

"We're at this crucial point," warns Joseph Cirincione of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "And how we handle these situations in the next couple of years will tell us whether the nuclear threat shrinks or explodes. Perhaps literally."

The steps that are needed, like negotiating seriously with North Korea and securing sites in Russia, aren't as dramatic as bombing Baghdad. But unless we act more aggressively, we will get a wake-up call from a nuclear explosion or, more likely, a "dirty bomb" that uses radioactive materials routinely lying around hospitals and factories. To clarify the stakes, here's a scenario from the Federation of American Scientists for a modest terrorist incident:

A stick of cobalt, an inch thick and a foot long, is taken from among hundreds of such sticks at a food irradiation plant. It is blown up with just 10 pounds of explosives in a "dirty bomb" at the lower tip of Manhattan, with a one-mile-per-hour breeze blowing. Some 1,000 square kilometers in three states is contaminated, and some areas of New York City become uninhabitable for decades.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Alok Niranjan » 10 Mar 2004 10:54

Originally posted by jarugn:
A stick of cobalt, an inch thick and a foot long, is taken from among hundreds of such sticks at a food irradiation plant. It is blown up with just 10 pounds of explosives in a "dirty bomb" at the lower tip of Manhattan, with a one-mile-per-hour breeze blowing. Some 1,000 square kilometers in three states is contaminated, and some areas of New York City become uninhabitable for decades.
Hmm ... I wonder if the the author of that piece would care to identify what a stick of Co-60 corresponds to in terms of activity ... 10^3 km^2 is a serious area ... I am impressed by this potent of a prediction :eek:

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Raj Malhotra » 10 Mar 2004 11:48

No major US/UK newspaper has broken the news of Chinese assistance on Shaheen-2. So the train does not leave the station or what? What happens to sub genus and confusion-us.

Who needs to get pardoned for MTCR violations? Nary a beep from US/UK on MTCR! BBC even calls it routine test!!

How far is the island of Deigo Garcia (spelling?) from Pakistan coast?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby arun » 10 Mar 2004 21:46

Interview Transcript. Colin Powell on NPR with Juan Williams on March 8:



MR. WILLIAMS: Sir, regarding Pakistan, I know that you're going to Pakistan and India, as well as Afghanistan next week. There are questions about why the U.S. didn't come down harder on Pakistan for the actions of A.Q. Khan, the scientist who sold nuclear materials and capability around the world.

He's arguably the biggest nuclear proliferator ever, so did the U.S. just ignore this, as some contend?

SECRETARY POWELL: No, we didn't ignore it at all, Juan. He was, perhaps, the biggest proliferator ever. He is not anymore. And the United States provided information and intelligence to President Musharraf as to the nature of Dr. Khan's activities, and we worked with President Musharraf to make sure that all of these activities became public and were taken into account, and action was taken.

And what President Musharraf did was confront Dr. Khan and his associates, interrogate them, get the information, cause Dr. Khan to go on public television and acknowledge what he had been doing over these years, and we are getting a steady stream of information as to the nature of that network; and the network's being pulled up. And you can see the results already in places like Libya and in other countries.

Now, it turns out, of course, that Dr. Khan is a very prominent figure in Pakistan. He's considered a national hero because he helped Pakistan develop its nuclear weapons some years ago. And so President Musharraf, having destroyed the Khan network and causing Dr. Khan to acknowledge his efforts, has decided that he had to offer to Dr. Khan a conditional amnesty, conditional meaning that it can be taken away.

So we continue to get information. Our goal was to destroy the network, and the network is destroyed and all elements of that network are being ripped up; all of its roots and branches are being pulled up and cut down. And what ultimately happens to Dr. Khan is a matter for the Pakistanis to decide.

But we came down very, very firmly with the Pakistanis on the need for them to help us and to help themselves totally pull up that network, and that's what the Pakistanis have done.

MR. WILLIAMS: So there was no quid pro quo about getting the Pakistanis' help with finding Osama bin Laden and agreeing not to be more harsh about Dr. Khan?

SECRETARY POWELL: No. I think Dr. Khan -- you speak about harshness, Dr. Khan has been forced, frankly, to acknowledge his guilt publicly to the whole world and to the Pakistani people. And in return for him acknowledging all of that, President Musharraf elected to provide him with a conditional amnesty.

I do not think that Dr. Khan is enjoying the position he is in, and I will let the Pakistani Government determine what else they should do with respect to Dr. Khan.

MR. WILLIAMS: Well, what about U.S. officials getting to question him?

SECRETARY POWELL: We are getting the information that we need, and I can assure you there is a good and a high level of cooperation between us and the Pakistani authorities on the questioning of Dr. Khan.

MR. WILLIAMS: With regard to --

SECRETARY POWELL: Not just Dr. Khan, but others, as well.

MR. WILLIAMS: Sorry for interrupting.

SECRETARY POWELL: No, go right ahead, Juan.


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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby ramana » 10 Mar 2004 22:05

Is this the first test of Shaheen-II/M-18? It definitely is an increase in TSP capabilities to spread their terror not to mention in rocket technology. The stage separation is a very crucial technology involving separation charges and timers and whatnots. To imply all this is locally available in TSP is quite stretching the truth.

Wait till they find that Mand was proliferating this to other jihadis for the Chinese connection to come out for unlike centrifuges these timers etc are covered by MTCR and there is no aftermarket for the goods except from national suppliers.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby svinayak » 10 Mar 2004 22:53

Interesting part is that CIA Chief Tenet said to the hearing committee that both India and Pakistan are developing and increasing the range of missiles.

There is an effort to create an impression that the missile race is is normal missile race with development and is accelerating.

The news and the images seems to be more important than the actual details. It impression being created looks suspicious.

There seems to be a hurry to make sure that Pakistan is still able to catch up to India and maintain so called "balance". The audience for this image is mostly the Pakistani population as well as the islamic world.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Rangudu » 10 Mar 2004 22:56

Ramana,

There is still doubt if Shaheen-II that was "tested" this week is in fact the M-18 or has other origins.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby daulat » 10 Mar 2004 23:34

acharya - at least one UK TV channel reported the missile test as pakistani aggression without an indian equivalent

so the spin might be US focused

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby SaiK » 10 Mar 2004 23:37

Perhaps, we should ask or make pakistan to test this shaheen - 2 again. We need to strongly say, it failed...

;)

per fas , m-18 carries only "conventional" payload!

:p

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Leonard » 10 Mar 2004 23:50

This is a old article by Raman Guru

http://www.saag.org/papers5/paper466.html


GHAZNAVI: Chinese or North Korean or Stolen?
by B. Raman


GHAZNAVI: Chinese or North Korean or Stolen?
by B. Raman

The Pakistani military has benefited from the following sources in its efforts to acquire a missile capability:

* Largely Indigenous with some Chinese inputs: Mainly the HATF-1 (100 kms and 500 Kgs) and HATF-2 (300 Kms and 500 Kgs). These two were developed by the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) and plans for their serial production, at least of HATF-2, were reported to have been abandoned due to their unsatisfactory performance.

* Totally Chinese:HATF-3, which is believed to be the Chinese M-11 (300 kms and 500 kgs);and SHAHEEN I, which is believed to be the Chinese M-9 (700 kms and 500 Kgs). SHAHEEN -I is also sometimes called HATF-4.
* Totally North Korean: Ghauri-I, which is believed to be the North Korean Nodong (1300 kms and 500 to 750 kgs); and Ghauri--II ( claimed to be 2000 kms and 700 kgs), also North Korean Nodong. Ghauri-I is also sometimes called HATF-5.

* Of Uncertain origin: Shaheen--II (claimed 2000 plus kms and 1000 kgs). It was displayed in a military parade in March 2000 and described by Pakistani commentators as a road-mobile, two-stage missile. According to some reports, it is nothing but the Chinese DF-15; according to some other reports, it is actually the North Korean Taepodong. In the past, some Pakistani analysts had also referred to it as Ghaznavi.

* Stolen: Scuds of Soviet origin stolen from Kabul when the Najibullah Government fell in April 1992 and the Afghan Mujahideen captured power. Number and type not known.

The Pakistani military uses its claims regarding its missile holdings and firings as a psychological warfare (Psywar) weapon to reassure its own personnel and public about its nuclear delivery capability; to create concerns in the minds of the Indian public; and to create alarm in the international community about the so-called dangers of a nuclear confrontation if they do not pressurise India to settle the so-called Kashmir dispute to its satisfaction.
As part of this Psywar, different names are often used for the same missile and their performance characteristics are exaggerated. It has also been carrying out its periodic firings as part of this Psywar over its territory, without any firing over the sea in the hope of thereby being able to prevent foreign intelligence agencies, including those of India, from accurately monitoring their performance characteristics.

Commenting on this, in a study made after the firing of the Ghauri-I missile in April,1998, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) of the USA said: "Diverse public pronouncements by various Pakistani officials have tended to obscure rather than clarify the present status of Pakistan's missile programs. The confusion is greatly magnified by the diversity of nomenclature, as the number of missile names evidently greatly exceeds the number of actual missile types."

This tendency of Pakistan could be seen in the announcements emanating from Pakistan about the missile fired on the morning of May 26, 2002, too. Pakistani officials have described the missile fired as HATF-III with a range of 290 kms. However, Nisar Memon, Pakistan's Information Minister, has described it as the first in the GHAZNAVI series of missiles. When SHAHEEN-II was displayed in a military parade in March, 2000, Pakistani commentators had described that too as the first in the GHAZNAVI series of missiles.

The name GHAZNAVI was first used in public by Dr.A.Q.Khan, the so-called father of Pakistan's atomic bomb, after the firing of the GHAURI-I missile in April, 1998. He said that GHAZNAVI would have more advanced performance characteristics than GHAURI-I with a range of 2000 Kms. Western experts had deducted from his statement that Pakistan probably intended to buy the Taepodong from North Korea, where it was still under development, and rebaptise it as GHAZNAVI.

While we should take due note of Pakistani claims, even if exaggerated, it is at the same time necessary to draw the attention of the USA, Japan and other Western countries to the possibility/dangers of Pakistan utilising the increased cash-flow since September, 2001, to add to its nuclear-missile capability through additional clandestine purchases from China and North Korea.

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail: corde@vsnl.com )

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby SaiK » 10 Mar 2004 23:56

http://www.fas.org/news/pakistan/1999/fbis-nes-1999-0422.htm

how shaheen was developed

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/ISL9541.htm

The test came after Israel last week concluded a deal to sell India a strategic airborne radar system despite warming ties between Islamabad and New Delhi. ((Islamabad newsroom, tel: +92-51 280 0155, fax: +92-51 280 0157))

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby svinayak » 11 Mar 2004 00:09

From the fas link

we have plenty of talent in the field of technology. The Pakistani nation is an intelligent nation. For the Shaheen Program, Dr. Samar Mubarik gathered the best foreign qualified Pakistani scientists and engineers from within and outside the country under the roof of the NDC. Then he provided them the best work environment and that is the reason that the best missile of South Asia was developed in a record short period.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Ashutosh » 11 Mar 2004 00:16

Note the "foreign-qualified" and not "foreign-educated". Kinda explains the "record short period" :D

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Umrao » 11 Mar 2004 00:17

acharya garu>> I read that para and laughed, The Pakis have such a huge inferiority complex.

Note this part "best missile of South Asia was developed in a record short period"

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby SaiK » 11 Mar 2004 00:19

anybody can verify this?

. "We have fired it to the end of <u>our sea limits</u>, which is about 2,000 km," Mand said.

http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=113326

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1165780,00.html

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Kuttan » 11 Mar 2004 00:59

Nomenclature clariphikashun:

"phoren educated" : BB

"phoren qualiphied": same as "selected to Most Wanted List in 3 countries". e.g., Osama, Dawood, Abdul Xerox.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Rangudu » 11 Mar 2004 01:03

developed in record short period
What's the time needed for a missile to be transported from China to Sonmiani?

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby D Raman » 11 Mar 2004 03:09

Originally posted by Sai Krshna:
anybody can verify this?

. "We have fired it to the end of <u>our sea limits</u>, which is about 2,000 km," Mand said.

http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=113326

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1165780,00.html
The use of word "Sea Limits" is a bit confusing. As of existing international norms, a nation's territorial limits extends upto 12 Nautical miles from it's shores and EEZ extends upto 200 miles. Anything beyond 12 Nm is considered international waters.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Manu » 11 Mar 2004 03:19

Originally posted by arun:
[URL=http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/30245.htm]

SECRETARY POWELL:

And what President Musharraf did was confront Dr. Khan and his associates, interrogate them, get the information, cause Dr. Khan to go on public television and acknowledge what he had been doing over these years, and we are getting a steady stream of information as to the nature of that network; and the network's being pulled up.

Now, it turns out, of course, that Dr. Khan is a very prominent figure in Pakistan. He's considered a national hero because he helped Pakistan develop its nuclear weapons some years ago. And so President Musharraf, having destroyed the Khan network and causing Dr. Khan to acknowledge his efforts, has decided that he had to offer to Dr. Khan a conditional amnesty, conditional meaning that it can be taken away.

And what ultimately happens to Dr. Khan is a matter for the Pakistanis to decide.

But we came down very, very firmly with the Pakistanis on the need for them to help us and to help themselves totally pull up that network, and that's what the Pakistanis have done.

I will let the Pakistani Government determine what else they should do with respect to Dr. Khan.
[/QUOTE]

Has this man no shame at all? How can he continue to lie like this? But being a sub-genius member of BR I leave it to the real geniuses to explain how the Pakis and more importantly, Dr. Khan won this game of Texas Hold'Em. And win it he has. Only a slap on the wrist (fully endorsed by Faithful State Dept.). If I were a proliferator, I would take a lot of confidence fom the above.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby ramana » 11 Mar 2004 03:20

If you were not a TSP proliferator you would be dead meat.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Manu » 11 Mar 2004 03:21

Well, Sunil S Post (made some time ago) makes a lot more sense to me now.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 03:26

Regarding the territorial waters thing - it must not be completely dismissed out of hand.

We don't know where the launch site was. In fact, it is worth checking what is the maximum possible range from say Tilla Jogian in Punjab or some place in Balochistan and yet splash down within the EEZ of TSP. That would give us a fix on the true range of the missile or at least what it was tested over.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Rangudu » 11 Mar 2004 04:54

X-posted.

Kamran Shafi says what's what

Nothing was to keep our testosterone-heavy macho leaders in check of course, and while one wanted to cry, it made one laugh so: to hear them after the missile test: “Proves that we are not rolling back our nuclear programme” they crowed! [color=brown]But whoever suggested there was any ‘roll-back’ of our nuclear programme? <u>All that we have heard, and from good solid sources, mark, is that the nuclear programme such as it is, is now under direct international (read American) surveillance.</u> That after the quite stupid ‘confession’ of proliferation, there was no way we could have kept prying eyes away from our holy of holies. How then does it matter if we have a missile that has a 2500 kilometre range, or one that has a 1500 kilometre range?</font> :lol:

The need of the times that we are passing through is for this country to hunker down, as our Yank friends would say: for its leadership to give more importance to the social uplift of its people than to firing off rockets; for our children to be educated; for the obscurantists to be given no quarter; for some rational political moves which are inclusive rather than exclusive; and for cracking down on crime and the causes of crime (to borrow from the Labour Party’s 1995 manifesto). We shall remain adrift without a paddle otherwise, 2500 kilometre missile or no 2500 kilometre missile.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Kuttan » 11 Mar 2004 06:11

We have fired it to the end of our sea limits, which is about 2,000 km," Mand said.
Folks, Pakistanis are too smart to place any value on a zero.

So the limit may be 200 miles - or 20 km (by which he means about 12 miles + baksheesh) or 2 miles, which is all the "missile" flew after the laughing gas was all gone. Or maybe he really meant 2,000 cm, but thought since kentimeters should be spelled with a 'k' since "K" stands for "Kashmir" which runs in the Pakis' blood.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby jarugn » 11 Mar 2004 08:43

IAEA wants Pakistani nuclear samples to absolve Iran!

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/11/international/middleeast/11NUKE.html

Alarm Raised Over Quality of Uranium Found in Iran
By CRAIG S. SMITH

Published: March 11, 2004

IENNA, March 10 — United Nations nuclear inspectors have found traces of extremely highly enriched uranium in Iran, of a purity reserved for use in a nuclear bomb, European and American diplomats said Wednesday.

Among traces that inspectors detected last year are some refined to 90 percent of the rare 235 isotope, the diplomats said. While the International Atomic Energy Agency has previously reported finding "weapons grade" traces, it has not revealed that some reached such a high degree of enrichment.

The presence of such traces raises the stakes in the international debate over Iran's nuclear program and increases the urgency of determining the uranium's origin. If the enrichment took place in Iran, it means the country is much further along the road to becoming a nuclear weapons power than even the most aggressive intelligence estimates anticipated.

Iran has said that its nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes, while the United States contends it has secretly tried to produce nuclear weapons. The atomic agency is expected to vote Friday on a resolution criticizing Iran for lack of candor about its nuclear efforts.

Iran has said that all of the highly enriched uranium found on its nuclear facilities was contamination that occurred before imported equipment arrived in the country. Iranian officials said they could not identify the origin of the contamination because the equipment was imported through middlemen in five countries.

I.A.E.A. officials said the contamination may have originated in Pakistan. Abdul Qadeer Khan, a Pakistani nuclear weapons scientist, has admitted secretly supplying uranium enrichment equipment to Iran and other nations. The agency has asked Pakistan for permission to take environmental samples from its enrichment facilities to see if they match the weapons-grade traces in Iran. "Pakistan could let Iran off the I.A.E.A. hook," said a European diplomat here.

American officials argue that traces of such highly enriched uranium, regardless of their origin, are another disturbing clue to what they believe are Iran's hidden ends.

"What it shows is that they have a system that is capable of producing weapons grade uranium," said an American official speaking from Washington. "If it's an assembly that was removed from Pakistan or elsewhere, it's already battle tested," he said.


On Wednesday, Iran's defense minister, Ali Shamkhani, acknowledged for the first time that the Iranian military had produced centrifuges to enrich uranium, the Associated Press reported from Teheran. He said they were manufacturing unsophisticated models for civilian users. The admission came after the I.A.E.A. presented Iran with evidence that some of its nuclear activities were taking place on military bases.

"It's rather strange, don't you think, that the military gets involved in the electric-power generating business?" asked one senior American official. "Or that they forgot to mention this before, when they were `fully disclosing' all details of their program?" American officials are lobbying hard to keep international pressure on Iran.

An I.A.E.A. resolution on Libya, passed by the agency's board of governors on Wednesday, is part of that campaign. The resolution, negotiated by the United States, Britain and Libya in London last week, praises Libya for swiftly dismantling the nuclear weapons program discovered last year. But the resolution's key paragraph calls for the agency to report Libya's past breaches of the Nonproliferation Treaty to the United Nations Security Council.

"The trap is sprung," said a senior American administration official speaking from Washington, saying that the Libyan resolution sets a precedent for future I.A.E.A. resolutions on Iran. "It makes it very hard not to at some point address Iran's breaches by referring them to the Security Council," he said.

The United States has been lobbying since late last year to threaten Iran with Security Council scrutiny if it continued to withhold information on the scope of its nuclear program. Britain, France and Germany have resisted making an explicit threat for fear that it would anger Iran and hinder future cooperation.

Iran warned Wednesday that American-led criticism could "complicate" its relations with the I.A.E.A. "America is taking advantage of any opportunity to put pressure on Iran," Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said in Teheran, the Associated Press reported. "Unfortunately the I.A.E.A. is sometimes influenced in this regard."

Mr. Kharrazi was quoted as saying that Iran would resume enriching uranium for peaceful purposes once its relations with the I.A.E.A. "return to normal."

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby jrjrao » 11 Mar 2004 16:26

Letter to the Financial Times by our own R:

Pakistani N-programme started before Indian explosion
Sir, Feroz Khan's article "The nuclear policy that backfired" (March 8) is full of self-serving inaccuracies. The most glaring error is his claim that Pakistan's nuclear programme started in 1974 "in response" to India's detonation of a nuclear device. In fact, Pakistan's nuclear programme was formally initiated at a meeting of high-level military and civil bureaucrats and scientists in Multan on January 20 1972 by Zulfiqar Bhutto, who was then prime minister.

Second, Mr Khan's attempts to gloss over the possible reasons for Pakistani state involvement in nuclear transfers to Libya, Iran and North Korea do not hold water. Libya was a prime financial supporter of Pakistan's nuclear programme from Bhutto's days. Iranian military had close ties to Pakistan during the tenure of General Aslam Beg, the army chief, who had threatened to trade nukes with Iran publicly. Pakistani officials are on the record that the Ghauri missile, which was the purported reason for Pakistani nuclear commerce with North Korea, is their only credible long-range missile threat to India.

Despite Mr Khan's facile claims and international expediency in believing otherwise, there is convincing evidence of Pakistani state involvement in nuclear proliferation.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Umrao » 11 Mar 2004 17:30

Manu said>>

But being a sub-genius member of BR I leave it to the <u>real geniuses</u> to explain how the Pakis and more importantly, Dr. Khan won this game of Texas Hold'Em. And win it he has.
Only Jones and Tims of the world can explain the rationale of this.

Remember according to these pundits India deserves more punitive sanctions than Pakistan ( and add to this the geniuse who said India tested first therefore Pakis went Nuklear)

Yeah log sochthe ki sara hindustani log Kaan may beedi caliber hain.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Kuttan » 11 Mar 2004 18:36

Jumrao: Watch any Rajesh Khanna movie and u will understand the rationale here.

Villain(s) beat up hero, burn villages, burn crops, conduct all sorts of atrocities on population, kill hero's father, mother, brothers, etc. etc.

But at end, hero gets one solid punch in to villains' mug and villain confesses - and goes off scot-free to burn more villages, kill more people etc. etc.

VICTORY!!!!!!

Its the THOUGHT that counts. Look at poor Abdul Xerox. Had to go on NATIONAL TV and that too in ENGLISH (don't all 142 million terrorists in TSP understand that very well?) and confessed.

The gentle Mush forgave him, for he has been Born Again and accepted President Musharraf as his Savior. I mean, doesn't that call for a whole BOX of KLEENEX, or what??? :whine:

Kuttan
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Kuttan » 11 Mar 2004 18:57

By the way, here's an interesting nugget:

State Farm insurance has modified its auto insurance coverage, with a very specific item saying that they will no longer pay for injuries/damage caused by "nuclear reactions, nuclear explosions, radioactivity" etc.

Note that they had no such thing in the days when we happily went about our business, knowing that we lived at "Ground Zero" for about twenty 1-megaton babies from the Soviet Union and a few from the PRC.

I don't think they are referring to the possibility that the Sun is going to be shining brighter in the next few years. So - somewhere out there in the world of Risk Assessment, someone has decided that they better put this clause in.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby TSJones » 11 Mar 2004 19:53

Well, I guess a sub genius has to explain it to kindergartener:

Before, these exceptions were covered under an "Act of War" clause which essentially got the insurance company off the hook.

If you will notice that legally, 9-11 was not considered an act of war due to the non provable presence of a government behind the act. So 9-11 was covered by the insurance companies. No act of war clause considered.

Now, in order to stop any future loses, insurance companies have to cover their all of their bases, so terrorists setting off nuclear devices may not be considered an act of war and the insurance companies will *not* cover them.

Unlike the genius collective on this forum, I may be wrong so no warranty implied. But then as a kindergartener, you shouldn't be worrying about this anyway.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Alok Niranjan » 11 Mar 2004 19:58

Manu said>>

But being a sub-genius member of BR I leave it to the <u>real geniuses</u> to explain how the Pakis and more importantly, Dr. Khan won this game of Texas Hold'Em. And win it he has.
no genius here, but I do know my hold'em ... so here is my take.

Before the flop, India supposedly check-raised Pakistan with a nuke test but ended up putting Pakistan on tilt. Pakistan was sitting on a K-10(madarssa) and raised a bunch of jehadis. India was strong with a rocket and a cowboy in the hole and matched the jehadi raise.

The flop was ace-9-jack (1 9-11). Pakistan now had a gut-shot hand and bet on the come. India made a pair of rockets and responded by raising troops at the border. Pakistan was hoping to play the afghan card and re-raised the front-line state. India capped it with a raise of one million troops.

The turn card was a King (amreeka). India now had rockets and cowboys but Pakistan had a double-baily hand with its own cowboys and a chance for a straight (play). India was dreaming of a full-boat (from russia with love) and kept raising with both nukes and missiles.

The river was a begum! She was brought out dressed as a scientist but soon converted into a tawaif for the (ch)ummah.

you get the picture?

everyone was busy talking about the queen and missed the fact that Pakistan got to play it straight ... AKQJ10 ... India was stuck with AAKKQ (rockets and cowboys and the begum for a kicker) ... end of story.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Vivek_A » 11 Mar 2004 20:27

Alarm Raised Over Quality of Uranium Found in Iran

VIENNA, March 10 — United Nations nuclear inspectors have found traces of extremely highly enriched uranium in Iran, of a purity reserved for use in a nuclear bomb, European and American diplomats said Wednesday.

Among traces that inspectors detected last year are some refined to 90 percent of the rare 235 isotope, the diplomats said. While the International Atomic Energy Agency has previously reported finding "weapons grade" traces, it has not revealed that some reached such a high degree of enrichment.

The presence of such traces raises the stakes in the international debate over Iran's nuclear program and increases the urgency of determining the uranium's origin. If the enrichment took place in Iran, it means the country is much further along the road to becoming a nuclear weapons power than even the most aggressive intelligence estimates anticipated.

Iran has said that its nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes, while the United States contends it has secretly tried to produce nuclear weapons. The atomic agency is expected to vote Friday on a resolution criticizing Iran for lack of candor about its nuclear efforts.

Iran has said that all of the highly enriched uranium found on its nuclear facilities was contamination that occurred before imported equipment arrived in the country. Iranian officials said they could not identify the origin of the contamination because the equipment was imported through middlemen in five countries.

I.A.E.A. officials said the contamination may have originated in Pakistan. Abdul Qadeer Khan, a Pakistani nuclear weapons scientist, has admitted secretly supplying uranium enrichment equipment to Iran and other nations. The agency has asked Pakistan for permission to take environmental samples from its enrichment facilities to see if they match the weapons-grade traces in Iran. "Pakistan could let Iran off the I.A.E.A. hook," said a European diplomat here.

American officials argue that traces of such highly enriched uranium, regardless of their origin, are another disturbing clue to what they believe are Iran's hidden ends.

"What it shows is that they have a system that is capable of producing weapons grade uranium," said an American official speaking from Washington. "If it's an assembly that was removed from Pakistan or elsewhere, it's already battle tested," he said.

On Wednesday, Iran's defense minister, Ali Shamkhani, acknowledged for the first time that the Iranian military had produced centrifuges to enrich uranium, the Associated Press reported from Teheran. He said they were manufacturing unsophisticated models for civilian users. The admission came after the I.A.E.A. presented Iran with evidence that some of its nuclear activities were taking place on military bases.

"It's rather strange, don't you think, that the military gets involved in the electric-power generating business?" asked one senior American official.
not stranger than Xerox Khan proliferating nukes in TSPAF planes without the TSP military knowing..

"Or that they forgot to mention this before, when they were `fully disclosing' all details of their program?" American officials are lobbying hard to keep international pressure on Iran.


Kuttan
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Kuttan » 11 Mar 2004 23:46

Thanks, TSJ. But note that the insurance company doesn't just say:

"Damage due to acts of terrorism are not covered."

They say: "nuclear....." That's what got my attention. They think the probability of nuke attacks is so high that they have to make this very visible thing sent out. Or maybe they think the probability of a nearby nuke plant getting blown up are pretty high. Or of cars getting contaminated by "dirty nuke" fallout.

OK, that's it. I am not leaving my tricycle and roller skates out in the sun any more. :D

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby VirenH » 11 Mar 2004 23:55

N^3
Nuclear Attack virtually a certainty - "Investment guru Warren Buffett offered a bleak prediction for the nation's national security, saying a terrorist attack on American soil is "virtually a certainty." Envy and dislike of the United States have fueled rage against the country even as the ability to build a nuclear device has spread, Buffett said Sunday at the final day of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s annual meeting." The story then goes on to mention that while Buffet is heavily into the insurance industry, his businesses are not insuring for nuclear attacks.
Link

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby jrjrao » 12 Mar 2004 00:59

Hahahahahah! Genius Amrikees.

Now, it is India that better "improve its export controls" to "crack down on the global nuclear black market". This is so that if India improves its act, then future PhotoChor-Khan-Networks can then be prevented from doing bad and nasty.

U.S. links technology growth to export controls
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Countries like Malaysia, India and Turkey could begin losing out on sophisticated technology trade that helps fuel their economic growth if they fail to crack down on the global nuclear black market, U.S. officials say.

That is one message the Bush administration is promoting as it seeks to stem trafficking in weapons of mass destruction highlighted by the revelations of Abdul Qadeer Khan, father of Pakistan's nuclear program, who recently confessed to selling nuclear secrets and material to North Korea, Iran and Libya.

"The United States, Europe, we're all concerned that sophisticated skills and equipment not be abused by potential proliferators. So it makes sense for Malaysia, or Thailand or Turkey, or Abu Dhabi, India or a host of countries to improve their export controls," a senior U.S. official told Reuters.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Rudra » 12 Mar 2004 01:26

in older days there was a whipping boy who got beaten if the prince did something bad like raping his sister or his dad's mistress....

ultimately the prince , the little cherub dies
of a heart attack in an orgy or is poisoned by a
jealous lover.

but he dies all the same. a short and interesting
life nevertheless.

Kuttan
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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Kuttan » 12 Mar 2004 01:58

This is what I described before as The Grenada response to the Lusitania sinking. I'm surprised Mauritius hasn't been carpet-bombed yet.

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Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation - 02 Mar 2004

Postby Rye » 12 Mar 2004 02:08

The american geniuses are now working overtime in ensuring that in the event of a future dirty nuke attack on american soil, the "war on terror"/GOAT will move into Iran. Such a comforting thought to know that the security of the world rests in the hands of such shortsighted liars and con men.

But RS's tale of the cherubling rapist/murderer is one to remember.


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