Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Sridhar
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Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 01:22

I am starting this new thread as suggested by Ramana. The objectives of this thread are
1. To figure out which missile this is - the Saudi CSS2, Chinese M18 or a new missile altogether
2. Assessing its claimed specs to try and arrive at its true capabilities based on available data
3. Looking at the proliferation angle, if any, for this missile

While it involves aspects that would place it in the military forum, it also involves strategic issues due to the proliferation angle. I believe it is best in this forum, but if admins think otherwise, pls. feel free to shift it to the military forum

Sridhar
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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 01:27

Some earlier posts in other threads
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manku thimma
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posted 09 March 2004 05:12 AM
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PAkistan tests Shaheen II
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Sridhar
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posted 09 March 2004 05:49 AM
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First pictures

Photo 1

Photo 2

For purposes of comparison, here is the Shaheen-I (M-9) (ignore the caption that seemingly refers to this as the S-II).
Shaheen - I

Couple of quick points
1. This seems to me like a single stage missile.
2. It seems to be solid fuelled (from the colour of the fumes)
3. Thus, it is not the same as the mockup of a 2-stage missile displayed at a parade (and labeled the S-II).
Old Shaheen 2 picture
4. It seems to have a higher diameter than S-I
5. It does not match the description of the M-18 missile from China. That matched the earlier S-II shown at the parade.

Any insights on which missile this is?

Added later:
From external appearance this missile looks like the Chinese Dong Feng-3A missile (also designated CSS-2), which was sold to Saudi Arabia (some reports say 120 of them and 12 launchers were sold). See this link for details on the missile
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/theater/df-3a.htm

Specifically, compare these pictures
DF-3A on TEL
Line drawing of the DF-3A
and
Shaheen-2 at launch

The only catch is that DF-3A is a liquid missile. So the question is - does the S-II look like a solid or liquid fuelled missile? If my conclusion that it was solid is incorrect, we may have a match. If not, the DF-3A is not it (unless there is a solid version of the DF-3A). Except for the type of fuel, the missiles seem identical.
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shiv
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posted 09 March 2004 06:59 AM
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quote:
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Originally posted by Sridhar:
First pictures

Any insights on which missile this is?

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Check this:

http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Pakistan/Missile/index_3066.html

Sridhar
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Member # 2620

posted 09 March 2004 07:05 AM
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quote:
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Originally posted by shiv:
Check this:

http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Pakistan/Missile/index_3066.html
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Shiv:

As I said in point 5 of my post, earlier reports all pointed to the M18. But this is not the M18. This looks amazingly similar to the DF3/CSS2. If the Shaheen 2 is indeed liquid fuelled (I am not an expert and cannot make out for sure though it seems like it is solid fuelled to me), then it is surely the CSS2. Probably the Saudis lent it to them or the Chinese supplied fresh missiles. But it is not the M18 as speculated till now (based on the mockup shown in the Pakistan Day parade some years ago).
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Sridhar
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posted 09 March 2004 07:30 AM
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[Wild speculation]

Does Mushy's trip to Saudi Arabia a couple of days ago have anything to do with this missile test? If indeed the missile was a Saudi CSS-2, it might not be unrelated.

[/Wild Speculation]
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Sridhar
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posted 09 March 2004 07:33 AM
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Another CSS2 line drawing.
http://www.aeronautics.ru/archive/wmd/ballistic/ballistic/css2_002.jpg
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Mani T.
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posted 09 March 2004 07:44 AM
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quote:
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Originally posted by Sridhar:

As I said in point 5 of my post, earlier reports all pointed to the M18. But this is not the M18. This looks amazingly similar to the DF3/CSS2. If the Shaheen 2 is indeed liquid fuelled (I am not an expert and cannot make out for sure though it seems like it is solid fuelled to me), then it is surely the CSS2.
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Sridhar,

Nice job of seeing through the Paki paint-job

I suppose you are worried about the red tinge in the fumes? Recall that this is an official photo and doctoring colors is trivial (btw, if it is aluminum based then aluminum oxide would not be red). In any case, the amount of fumes points to the fact that it is not a homogenous solid propellant:

http://www.braeunig.us/space/propel.htm

quote:
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Their main asset is that they do not produce traceable fumes and are, therefore, commonly used in tactical weapons.
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Rangudu
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posted 09 March 2004 07:56 AM
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quote:
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Originally posted by Sridhar:
[Wild speculation]

Does Mushy's trip to Saudi Arabia a couple of days ago have anything to do with this missile test? If indeed the missile was a Saudi CSS-2, it might not be unrelated.

[/Wild Speculation]
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I swear I was thinking about the very same thing this morning Sridhar.

Great minds think alike
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Ashok Kumar
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posted 09 March 2004 08:09 AM
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Good observations Sridhar!

Shaheen-II's tail fins are also a bit longer than DF-3A.
Otherwise the similarity in appearance is remarkable. May be it is solid-fueled version of DF-3.
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Sridhar
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posted 09 March 2004 08:13 AM
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And maybe this is not solid fuelled after all. My apologies if I started a pointless and incorrect debate (as they often say, little knowledge can be quite harmful ).

Expert opinion on this point (whether it seems like it is solid fuelled or liquid fuelled based on the two pictures) would be appreciated. Paging Arun_S.
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shiv
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posted 09 March 2004 08:16 AM
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I am NOT a rocket scientist but isn't red smoke from red fuming nitrous oxide liquid fuel? The same corrosive explosive stuff that we used to whine that Prithvis were filled with?

arun
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Member # 4899

posted 09 March 2004 08:58 AM
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Sridhar,

I my entirely non expert view, if the Shaheen II is solid fueled,as claimed, the exhaust plume should be similar to our own solid fueled Agni’s.

I say this as this article in Jung states that Integrated Defence Systems (IDS), formely National Development Complex, products include :

quote:
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HTPB, AP, Al powder, HX752, MAPO, hydrazine, and ablative material.
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Our Agni’s are HTPB/AP/Al and again I think HX 752 and MAPO are related to making HTPB/AP/Al propellant.

Now if the exhaust plume is different………………………..

Experts please wade in.
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Rudra Singha
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posted 09 March 2004 09:03 AM
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liquid fuels leave a small neat plume, solid fuels a messy white plume. it could be solid fueled.

similar to copious white plume of agni
http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/south/01/26/india.missile.pakistan/vstory.agni.jpg
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Sridhar
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posted 09 March 2004 09:08 AM
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FWIW, some 'specifications' of the missile in this report (along with a picture of the wrong missile)
http://www.geo.tv/main_files/pakistan.aspx?id=8688

quote:
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This missile, weighing 25 tons having a diameter of 1.4 meter, is fired by solid fuel.
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and this

quote:
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Shaheen-II is the sixth missile of the Hataf series, made in Pakistan exclusively with the talents of Pakistani scientists and engineers painters who had worked round the clock.
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Suraj
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posted 09 March 2004 09:17 AM
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quote:
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Originally posted by Sridhar:

quote:
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This missile, weighing 25 tons having a diameter of 1.4 meter, is fired by solid fuel.
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and this

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Going solely by the assumed veracity of this quote, it doesn't look like the DF-3A/CSS-2, which has a mass of 64 tonnes and a diameter of 2.25 metres. CSS-2 mini-me of some sort ? Or maybe the FAS data is inaccurate/is that of an older version of the DF-3A ? The FAS data suggests the DF-3A is almost 3x heavier than the claim for the Shaheen 2, and 1.5x wider. Shaheen 1 is indeed a modified DF-11/M-11, but I don't know about the S-2.

ramana
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posted 09 March 2004 09:20 AM
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Need to do more research on Shine Google search on Shaheen-2
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Sridhar
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posted 09 March 2004 09:28 AM
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Suraj:

You are right that the DF-3/CSS-2 specifications on the FAS site and the claimed specifications in the Geo TV article are inconsistent. However the speculations on the Saudi transfer is that China supplied early versions of the CSS-2 with lower range and hence lower propellant loading (perhaps lower diameter too - I don't know). The Chinese-deployed CSS-2 are reported to have range upto 4000kms but the Saudi ones have range ~ 2000kms.

The 1.4m dia and 25T propellant loading solid missile conforms to the descriptions for the M-18. However, the M-18 is a two-stage missile and has a much higher length/dia ratio than the Shaheen 2 in the picture of the launch. So this is almost definitely not the M-18.

Also, the Pakistanis have been known to give misleading figures on their missiles. For instance, they claim that they have tested the Ghauri-2 when all indications suggest that it is only a Ghauri-1.

(Corrected minor typo)
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Mudy
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posted 09 March 2004 09:30 AM
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Pakistan tests long-range missile
Check out the range at the bottom of this link, it covers Israel also.
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Suraj
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posted 09 March 2004 10:55 AM
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Sridhar:
Here's a FAS article on the CSS-2 transfers to Saudi Arabia. A rough estimate of the missile diameter (~7') seems to suggest it is 2.2m wide. Of course, as you mentioned, the Pakis may be fudging, or don't know how to use a measuring tape. The article also suggests the Saudi CSS-2s are very inaccurate as a result of their being originally nuclear tipped. Further, the Saudi missiles are stated to be DF-3, not DF-3A. I'm not sure if that implies a scaled down version. Someone with access to Jane's Strategic Weapons specs might be able to shed more light on the M-18 dimensions. I couldnt find any using google.

[Edited to add link I forgot earlier]
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Sridhar
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posted 09 March 2004 11:28 AM
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Suraj:

The 1.4m, 25T missile seems to be the M-18. Consider the following facts

1. M-18 is a two stage missile composed of two M-9 stages (range 1000-1200kms with a 500kg warhead)

2. I am assuming that each M-9 stage weighs approx. 12T (the M-11 weighs 6T). The FAS page says that both the M-9 (600km with 500kg warhead) and M-11 (300kms with 500kg warhead) weigh the same 6T. That is certainly an error. The 6T for M-11 is consistent (in approximate terms) with a 4.5T liquid-fuelled Prithvi (250kms with a 500kg warhead).

3. If we assume that each M-9 weighs 12T and the M-18 is essentially two M-9s, we get a total weight of 24T. Close to the 25T figure in the Geo TV report.

4. I distinctly remember reading somewhere that the M-18 had a 1.4m dia.

5. Thus, it could be that the Geo TV report is quoting archival specs for the Shaheen 2 (which was thought to be the same as the M18 before today). In fact, the picture in the same report is also a file picture of the original M-18 version which the Pakis termed the Shaheen 2. But the missile tested today was not an M18. In any case, the specs are only in a press (TV) report - not in any official release.

We will perhaps never get to know the facts since the GoP is unlikely to release anything conclusive. We would have to infer things from available facts, photos etc.

For a start, the diameter can be estimated if GoP releases a photo of the Shaheen 2 prior to launch (showing the TEL and perhaps people). It would be worth checking out PTV - they may have footage of the launch and may show the moments just before launch.
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Suraj
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posted 09 March 2004 11:57 AM
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Sridhar:
That makes sense. Thanks. I did get confused about the M-9 and M-11 numbers on FAS. It would be very interesting to nail down what exactly the capabilities of the present missile are. As of now, the only thing that appears certain is that its exterior is the product of diligent hard-working Pakistani painters working round the clock
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Rangudu
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posted 09 March 2004 12:06 PM
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Have you all considered the possibility that this could be another version of NoDong, maybe a solide fueled one?

The exterior looks like a NoDong to me!
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manku thimma
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posted 09 March 2004 05:43 PM
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Samar Mubarakmand says Shaheen II test was over the sea.

quote:
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ISLAMABAD: Chairman National Engineering and Scientific Commission (NESCOM) Dr Samar Mubarik Mand has said the Shaheen-II missile on Tuesday covered a distance of 1,800 kilometres in just 15 minutes and hit the target in the Indian Ocean.

He said the weight of the missile was 26 tonnes and it was completely manufactured by the scientists and engineers of NESCOM who deserved a lot of appreciation. He was talking informally to The News here on Tuesday evening. When asked about the evidence of the destruction of the target by Shaheen-II, Dr Samar said several ships of Pak Navy were sent to the Indian Ocean for monitoring. He said they and the military leadership were informed by the last ship about the destruction of the target. He said all of them thanked Allah Almighty for this big success.

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Sridhar
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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 01:31

Ashutosh
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posted 10 March 2004 09:27 AM
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Boss, looking at the video and assuming that it was launched from somewhere near Karachi, I'd be surprised if it even cleared the TSP beachline ...
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Niranjan Rao
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posted 10 March 2004 09:42 AM
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quote:
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Originally posted by Ashutosh:
Boss, looking at the video and assuming that it was launched from somewhere near Karachi, I'd be surprised if it even cleared the TSP beachline ...
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lo-lo-lo
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Sai Krshna
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posted 10 March 2004 09:43 AM
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what is lo-lo-lo ?
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Vijay J
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posted 10 March 2004 10:30 AM
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Pakistanis claim Shaheen II is solid fueled.

http://www.pakistantimes.net/2004/03/10/top.htm

Sources said Shaheen-II "is described as two-stage, solid fuel 2000-2500 kilometre range missile" capable of carrying 1,000kg payload. Pakistan flight-tested solid-fuelled Abdali (Hatf-2) and Ghaznavi (Hatf-3) missiles, as well as liquid-fuelled Ghauri (Hatf-5) missile in May 2002.

VCOAS says Pakistani nuclear program is not being rolled back.

http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=113326

The army's Vice-Chief of Staff, General Mohammed Yusuf, said the test should dispel doubts of those who talked of rollback of Pakistan's nuclear and missile programmes.

"There is no rollback; there is roll-forward," he said in remarks shown by a private television channel.

Test related to internal politics claims author

[url=http://www.arabnews.com/?page=4§ion=0&article=40921&d=10&m=3&y=2004]http://www.arabnews.com/?page=4§ion=0&article=40921&d=10&m=3&y=2004[/url]

“This is internal politics,” said Shahid ur-Rehman, author of a widely read book on Pakistan’s nuclear program.

The test firing “was basically aimed at quieting the Pakistani people who have been accusing Musharraf of rolling back the nuclear program,” he said.

India is not upset by Shaheen Show.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/549793.cms

The missile test, said officials, is also meant to counter the allegations levelled by hardliners in Pakistan that the US is putting pressure on Pervez Musharraf to roll back its clandestine missile and nuclear programme in the wake of the sordid A Q Khan affair.

‘‘The test in itself is not surprising...We know Pakistan ’s missile capabilities, which are based entirely on technologies acquired from China for solid-fuel missiles and from North Korea for liquid-fuel missiles,’’ said an official.

Talat Masood has also made the following statement

http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=535fd41f-d06b-493e-991a-fa33bc562816

Talat Masood, a former army general and military analyst, said the missile test demonstrates Pakistan's advances in missile technology and would help ease criticism at home in the wake of the nuclear proliferation scandal.

``It gives Pakistan the ability to fire missiles much deeper into India than before,'' he said.

``Politically, the government is trying to assure the people that its missiles and nuclear programs are moving ahead and that the negative fallout of the proliferation affair has not affected any of its affairs.''

Interestingly both Israel and Japan have responded publicly and quickly to the test and both have said something about proliferation. The Japanese statement is very strong.

The test itself was covered by Reuters, Paul Haven of AP, Geo TV, Shahid Hussain of Gulf News, and Pak TV.

An excellent review of views on the test.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0309/dailyUpdate.html?s=entt

posted March 9, 2004, updated 12:00 p.m.

Pakistan test fires new long-range missile

New nuclear-capable rocket puts most of India at risk.

By Seth Stern | csmonitor.com

Putting almost all Indian cities within range of attack, Pakistan, on Tuesday, successfully test fired its longest-range nuclear-capable missile yet.

The Pakistani military announced the over-the-ocean test in a statement: "The two-state Shaheen II missile system, which has been indigenously developed by Pakistani scientists and engineers, can carry all types of warheads up to 2,000 km (1,250 miles)."

03/08/04

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03/05/04

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The new missile exceeds the 930-mile reach of the Ghauri, previously Pakistan's longest-range missile, which some experts say was developed with North Korean, and perhaps Chinese, help.

The BBC characterized the test as "one of a number of routine" missile tests carried out by India and Pakistan since the two countries revealed the development of their nuclear weapons in 1998.

Pakistan last test launched a missile, the Htaf-Ghaznavi, in October, 2003. Pakistan had warned for weeks that this latest test was coming and had informed India, as has become routine custom preceding such tests.

The Pakistani statement said its weapons program is a response to that of nuclear-armed rival India, which has its own missile development program. "Our strategic force goals are guided by the concept of minimum credible deterrence and that's why we have to test these missiles from time to time," Foreign Ministry spokesman Masood Khan said Monday. He said the aim of the test would be to ensure the "reach" of the missile was sufficient to deter aggression and "prevent military coercion."

Last week, India concluded a deal with Israel to buy a strategic airborne radar system. Pakistan has complained that the radar system, which can put large parts of Pakistan under electronic surveillance, will threaten its security and require steps to keep a balance between the two countries. India had no immediate response to Tuesday's test.

The BBC suggests the test may be a "political statement" by Islamabad to show that its missiles and nuclear programs are moving ahead following the negative fallout from the proliferation scandal involving Pakistan's top nuclear research scientist, Dr. Abdul Qader Khan.

Reuters offered a similar analysis from a Pakistani defense analyst: "This particular test defies that kind of criticism or at least takes the sting away from that, and just sends the message out that Pakistan's missile program is very much on course," said Riffat Hussain, head of the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad. "This underscores the fact that Pakistan's nuclear and missile program is well, robust and on track," he said.

The strongest reaction came from Japan, which expressed concern that Pakistan had conducted the test despite efforts by the international community to curb proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missiles, Reuters reported. "The Japanese government hopes that the test will not bring about a negative effect on positive developments between Pakistan and India towards improving their relations," said a statement from the Japanese embassy in Islamabad.

Still, there are signs of thawing tensions between the two South Asian powers. As the Monitor reported Monday, the test coincides with the first Indian cricket tour to Pakistan in 14 years. And Tuesday, a fresh round of talks addressed launching a bus service between the Indian state of Rajasthan and the Pakistani province of Sindh.

According to Globalsecurity.org, the Shaheen series of solid-propellant rockets is one of three components of Pakistan's missile effort. They appear to be modeled on Chinese-built missiles obtained since the early 1990s. Dr. Khan's laboratory, which is responsible for Pakistan's uranium bomb program, has imported and tested North Korean Nodong missiles under the name Ghauri and may also be considering longer-range Taepodong missiles, Globalsecurity.org says.

Khan's lab has been at the center of an international proliferation scandal amid revelations that he helped transfer nuclear secrets to Iran, North Korea, and Libya.

The Guardian reports the UN's chief nuclear inspector, Mohammed El Baradei appealed to Pakistan Monday for help in determining the extent Iran benefited from the black market in nuclear secrets.

Opening a meeting in Vienna of the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Dr. El Baradei indirectly said Pakistani assistance was critical to making sense of the nuclear clues found by his inspection teams in Iran. But informed diplomats said that Pakistan was refusing to provide detailed information or access to nuclear facilities, the Guardian reports
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Aditya Vikram
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posted 10 March 2004 10:30 AM
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Funny thing I noticed in the times of India today. it said quote" unoffical reports state that the missile was launched near the Pakistani coast"
Wow if they really tested over the sea then why not that be officially stated. Also, the missile looks single staged like a M11 and not even the M9. Funny how almost all types of Paki missiles look the same
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Vijay J
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posted 10 March 2004 10:31 AM
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http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/asia/story/0,4386,239237,00.html

Meanwhile, Chinese Defence Minister Cao Gangchuan is due in Pakistan on March 22 for a five-day official visit for talks on defence and security matters, officials said yesterday. -- Reuters, AFP
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sunil s
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posted 10 March 2004 10:38 AM
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Hi,

Note gyrations in trajectory in the video. I am puzzled by the footage of the test it seems that the missile levelled off fairly quickly.

http://www.hipakistan.com/en/detail.php?newsId=en56814&F_catID=&f_type=source

"ISLAMABAD: Chairman National Engineering and Scientific Commission (NESCOM) Dr Samar Mubarik Mand has said the Shaheen-II missile on Tuesday covered a distance of 1,800 kilometres in just 15 minutes and hit the target in the Indian Ocean.

He said the weight of the missile was 26 tonnes and it was completely manufactured by the scientists and engineers of NESCOM who deserved a lot of appreciation. He was talking informally to The News here on Tuesday evening. When asked about the evidence of the destruction of the target by Shaheen-II, Dr Samar said several ships of Pak Navy were sent to the Indian Ocean for monitoring. He said they and the military leadership were informed by the last ship about the destruction of the target. He said all of them thanked Allah Almighty for this big success.

He observed that the successful test-fire of Shaheen-II had made the country’s defence more impregnable. He further said the test-fire had also removed the apprehensions that Pakistan was going to roll back its nuclear missile programme. "
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Ashutosh
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posted 10 March 2004 10:50 AM
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NR, the Shaheen-I/II is allegedly a ballistic missile, which usually pierce the atmosphere before re-entering ... if you look at the video, that missile barely reaches 200-300ft or so before levelling off ...

Dunno what lo-lo-lo thing you are referring to - it makes sense only with planes I thought.

S^2, the missile is also spinning like as if it's drunk. Actually it looks like it's kinda falling or something like that and not an intentional directional maneuver ...
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Rangudu
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posted 10 March 2004 10:52 AM
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Can anyone see the missile stages actually separate?

It didn't look like a two stage missile to me.
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Vijay J
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posted 10 March 2004 10:56 AM
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A list of opinion and editorial pieces about the topic.

http://www.hipakistan.com/en/detail.php?newsId=en56817&F_catID=&f_type=source

As Pakistan, with full speed rolled forward, to use the words of the Vice Chief of Army Staff, Lt Gen Mohammad Yousaf Khan, in its missile programme by successfully firing the Hatf VI (Shaheen II) long range surface to surface missile, thoughts also turn to India’s purchase of the Phalcon aircraft from Israel recently. In this deal, India has got a system fitted with the state-of-the-art technology in terms of radars, intelligence apparatus and censors.



It is a system that can be used, to say it in the simple language, disturb our missile capabilities a great deal.

Talks on everything with India from Siachen to Munabao and Khokhrapar bus service apart, (one does not deliberately wants to mention Kashmir along with these peripheral issues in order not to reduce the crucial importance of this dispute in Indo Pakistan relations) the reality on the ground compels Pakistan to move correctly on the road to deterrence in South Asia. Phalcons have been graciously given to our new "dialogue partner", (the partner whom we have awarded with Confidence Building Measures that some Pakistanis seem highly tilted towards it), by its great strategic partner, the US, as if India was buying a birthday cake from a bakery.

The great, obliging salesman behind the counter is no other than the "state" (don’t mind the parenthesis - we have not yet recognised it) Israel. Pakistan which has taken the front seat in the "war on terrorism" led by the US, certainly deserves a much better treatment than the one given in the shape of this overwhelming advantage to its "great" neighbour. For us even some F-16s were an unsolvable problem.

http://www.nation.com.pk/daily/Mar-2004/10/EDITOR/edi1.asp

Need to stand firm
ONE would very much like to wish that Pakistan was not under any pressure to roll back its nuclear weapons programme, as maintained by Mr Jamali on the floor of the Senate on Monday. But somehow his assurances notwithstanding, the people find it hard to banish the apprehension that Western powers are covertly but persistently fuelling a media campaign to malign Pakistan over the proliferation issue. Exaggerated alarms about the implications of a change of government in the country are being raised, without acknowledging that even if power was to pass any time in the future to what the Western media calls ‘fanatical forces’ there is no reason to believe they would not studiously safeguard these precious assets. A stream of high-level foreign visitors to Islamabad at this juncture also reinforces the impression that the government is being put under constant pressure to drop its nuclear deterrent. The need of the hour is to stand firm in the face of any intimidation. The authorities would find the whole nation, whatever its differences with them on other issues, fully behind them.

Some more interesting news.

http://www.paknews.com/main.php?id=5&date1=2004-03-10

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan : March 10 (PNS) - Saudi Prince Faisal Bin Abdullah Bin Muhammad Bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud called on the Prime Minister here on Tuesday and exchanged views on matters of mutual interest.

Prime Minister Jamali said that people of Pakistan hold the people of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in high esteem. "The more we meet each other, the more we get closer", remarked the Prime Minister.

He pledged to continue and further increase the existing cordial and brotherly cooperation between the two countries and said that it is in the interest of both the countries to work together for the betterment, welfare and prosperity of the Muslim Ummah. Both the leaders had unanimity of views on a desire to keep pace with modern developing world and stressed the need of acquisition of modern education that could serve as a catalyst of change for the betterment.

The Prime Minister said that we should concentrate on education as enunciated by Islam. Under the present circumstances, Muslim Ummah should work hard to make their due place in the comity of nations, he added. Both the leaders had commonality of views on major world issues.
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Vijay J
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posted 10 March 2004 10:57 AM
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Maybe this needs a separate thread?
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Ashutosh
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posted 10 March 2004 11:00 AM
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Well, take a look at this BBC report: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3545775.stm

The picture there is of Shaheen-I. There is no difference between that missile and the one shown in the video - except for the extra "2" painted near the exhausts. Shaheen-II

Experts in painting technology?

I am also having trouble spotting the TSP national flag on those things. Usually the flag is quite a prominent feature.
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John Umrao
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posted 10 March 2004 11:04 AM
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quote:
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Originally posted by Ashutosh:
NR, the Shaheen-I/II is allegedly a ballistic missile, which usually pierce the atmosphere before re-entering ... if you look at the video, that missile barely reaches 200-300ft or so before levelling off ...

Dunno what lo-lo-lo thing you are referring to - it makes sense only with planes I thought.

S^2, the missile is also spinning like as if it's drunk. Actually it looks like it's kinda falling or something like that and not an intentional directional maneuver ...
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A unique feature of Pakistani missile is that
"ETA is known but destination is unknown"
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Rangudu
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posted 10 March 2004 11:10 AM
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Ashutosh,

Shaheen-1 has fins just below the nosecone. Shaheen-2 does not.

That is why I said it looks more like a solid fueled version of the NoDong/Ghauri.
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Ashutosh
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posted 10 March 2004 11:11 AM
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Yes R, other than that, the only difference I see is re-designed painting on the lower fins, and more spaced out "SHAHEEN".
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Niranjan Rao
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posted 10 March 2004 11:15 AM
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Ashu,

lo-lo-lo just a way to mimick the Brahmos. Just commenting (a joke) on the trajectory - seemed too shallow for such a missile.

Reg the 1 vs. 2, there are other diffs between the two pics you posted - fins, cone and the lettering. The "2" seems to be a bigger missile.

Sunil s,

The gyrations are mid course corrections. . I mean we need to give credit where it is due.

BTW, in all seriousness (if one can be), the video has three clips in it. For what it is worth.

TSP would have been better off by selling some adv space for **** too. Got them some money + shown they can still stand to Uncles overtures for a rollback.
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Ashutosh
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posted 10 March 2004 11:15 AM
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From Shaheen-II test-fired
quote:
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* Missile has 2,700-kilometre range
* ISPR says test dispels apprehension of N-plan rollback
* FO hopes it won’t harm Indo-Pak ties
* Israel and Japan express worries

Staff Report

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Tuesday successfully test-fired a Shaheen-II (Hatf-VI) surface-to-surface ballistic missile. It has a range of 2,700 kilometres.

It was the first test flight of the solid- fuel Shaheen-II, which is capable of hitting any target in India. Shaheen-II is the longest-range missile tested by Pakistan so far.

“Shaheen-II is an India-specific missile and it can cover the entire length and breadth of India,” a senior official said. Shaheen-II is an advanced version of Shaheen-I, which has a range of 700 kilometres.

Shaheen-II is a two-stage missile and can carry all kinds of conventional and unconventional warheads. “All the planned technical parameters were successfully validated during the test,” an Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) statement said, adding that the test dismissed the apprehensions of a rollback of Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programme.

President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali congratulated the personnel involved in the development and launch of the Shaheen-II missile system. The ISPR said that as a confidence-building measure Pakistan had informed all neighbours of the Shaheen-II test. “The test demonstrates Pakistan’s advanced scientific capability in the strategic field and reflects Pakistan’s resolve to maintain minimum credible deterrence,” the ISPR said.

Agencies add: Israel which falls just outside the Shaheen-II’s range, was ‘worried’ about proliferation. “The real risk here is in proliferation (by Pakistan),” said Uzi Rubin, an adviser to Israel’s Defence Ministry on missile technology.

Japan said on Tuesday it was regrettable that Pakistan had tested another ballistic missile despite the international push to halt the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. “It is regrettable that Pakistan conducted a ballistic missile test despite efforts by the international community for the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles,” the foreign ministry said in a statement. The statement called on Pakistan to “respond sincerely” to the international community’s non-proliferation efforts.

FO: Foreign Office Spokesman Masood Khan hopes that the Shaheen-II missile test will not have an adverse impact on the composite dialogue process between Pakistan and India, according to the BBC.
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Take a look at the picture: http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/images/10_3_2004_Test-2.jpg. Does it look like a mobile TEL?
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Ashutosh
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posted 10 March 2004 11:22 AM
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This is the 23rd March 2000 picture of the Shaheen-II. Note the presence of two sets of fins, as opposed to the single set on the one launched recently: http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/pakistan/missile/shaheen-2-display.jpg

On a related note, it's rather interesting that John Pike updates only certain sections of fas.org while he leaves other sections languishing for years!
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Ashutosh
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posted 10 March 2004 11:28 AM
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Also - the difference in ranges quoted - TSP state media claims 2000km, whereas the scientists claim 2500km? Someone else claims 2700km?
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Rangudu
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posted 10 March 2004 11:29 AM
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Does the black band inbetween A and the H in the Shaheen pic indicate that it is two staged? Or is it just a Paki paint job special effect to get rid of extra black paint?
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Rangudu
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posted 10 March 2004 11:32 AM
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Boss,

I think this is a joke. After the AXK scandal, Mushy must have told Mubarakmand - "Samar, koi barra sa tagda missile test karva do yaar. Ye Amrikeeyon kay vajay say hum bahut taqleef main hain" and then they arranged for some hasty "test" of whatever they could find. They probably got something FedEx'd from China or KSA and did their 2 hour paint job on it.
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manku thimma
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posted 10 March 2004 11:39 AM
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Ashutosh, Rangudu,
please check back on the Pakistan thread for Sridhar's post on Shaheen-2's various avatars and the discussion that follows.

just FYI to avoid duplication of effort.
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Sridhar
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posted 10 March 2004 12:01 PM
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Rangudu:

There are significant differences from the Ghauri missile. The dimensions seem different (the dia/length ratio of the S-2 is greater than that for the G-1). The shapes of the fins is also different as is the relative size of the nose cone.

There is no doubt that this is a different missile. What is confusing is the statement attributed to Mubarakmand that it is
a. a 26 ton two-stage solid fuelled missile
b. has a range of 2000kms (claims go up to 2500kms)

While the consistency of these two can best be checked in Arun simulator, my gut feel tells me that these are not consistent. A Ghaznavi (M-11) is an approx. 6T missile with a range of 300kms for a 500kg payload and the Shaheen-1 (M-9) is an approx. 12T missile with a 600kms range for 500kg payload. A missile with approx. 4 times the mass having range 7 or more times does not make sense to me. Payload cannot be less than 500kg since the structural weight of the nose cone itself would be about 200kgs. So it is not as if there is increase in range because of payload reduction.

Clearly, things are goofy about this launch. The Pakistanis have a policy of deliberate obfuscation of specifications in the past and this is consistent with that.

What I am interested in is whether this is just a test on behalf of the Saudis or not. There is circumstantial evidence for this in the form of Mushy’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia as well as the recent joint exercises between the Paki and Saudi navies which took place in the Indian ocean – where the missile is reported to have been targeted at.
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rajivg
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posted 10 March 2004 12:11 PM
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Based on the video and official statements, if the Shaheen-II went 1800Km in 15 minutes or 7200Km/hr, then it would have become supersonic by the time it levelled off. There is no indication of a sonic boom during the video. Further, it does not appear that it follows a ballistic missile trajectory. Something just isn't right here - which is usual for our Paki friends.
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Rangudu
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posted 10 March 2004 12:12 PM
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I agree with your analysis Sridhar. Good job!

The new Shaheen-2 is clearly different than:

1. The Shaheen-2 displayed in 2000

2. Shaheen-1 tested last year

3. Ghauri-1 tested in 1998 and 2002

So what is it? Is it an M-18?
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Ashutosh
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posted 10 March 2004 12:13 PM
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Just FYI, John Pike's "very quick" update on the Shaheen-II: Shaheen-II / Hatf-6 / Ghaznavi
quote:
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The Shaheen-II was test-fired on March 9, 2004. The Pakistani military issued a statement saying, "Pakistan today successfully carried out the maiden test fire of the Shaheen 2 surface-to-surface ballistic missile."

In an interview with an English daily in Islamabad, the director General of the National Development Complex [and a member of Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission - PAEC] Dr. Samar Mubarik Mund said work is in progress on the long range Shaheen-II which can travel 2000 kilometres. He said the missile would be ready for testing by the end of 1998, though it was not launched until early 2004.

A pair of Shaheen-II ballistic missiles were displayed during the Pakistan Day parade in Islamabad on 23 March 2000. One of the missiles was carried on a 12-wheel Transporter Erector Launcher, while the other missile was carried on a Missile Transporter. These vehicles, based on a common chassis, are evidently significantly larger than the 8-wheel launcher used by the Shaheen, though they use a similar cab. During the parade, it was claimed that the Shaheen-II surface-to-surface missile had a range of 2,000 kilometers [over 1400 miles].

The Shaheen-II is evidently a Pakistani version of the Chinese M-18, which was originally shown at the 1987 Beijing air show as a two-stage missile with 1000 kms range carrying a 400-500 kilogram payload. This M-18 missile had the longest range of any of the current M-series missiles.

The Shaheen series of missiles are evidently based imported from China by the PAEC's National Development Complex. The Shaheen, which was tested with considerable publicity on 15 April 1999, is evidently the Chinese M-11 which Pakistan purchased in the early 1990s. The Shaheen-II would appear to represent the Chinese M-18, although it is questionable whether Pakistan has actually obtained these missiles from China. There is no present indication that China has transferred such missiles to Pakistan.

Pakistan has announced that development efforts are underway on a longer-range missile, designated the Ghaznavi, although no details of this system's proposed characteristics have been made public.
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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 01:34

Cross posting my own post
=========================

From whatever I have seen, the description of the M-18 matches that of the two-stage missile's mockup shown by Pakistan in the Pakistan Day parade in 2000. It does not seem to match descriptions of the Shaheen2. So the possibilities are
1. This is the M18 but descriptions of the M18 are not accurate (since the missile has never actually been displayed in China, AFAIK). If this is true, the M18 has to be much larger than believed till now to achieve the 2000kms range.
2. It is the M18 but the Pakistanis are lying about the specs. of the Shaheen 2 (if it is the M18, it is likely to be a ~25T missile with a range of 1000-1200kms, consistent with Pike's description).
3. This is not the M18 at all.

My private hypothesis at the moment is that 3 is correct. But I think we should wait for Arun's expert comments before speculating further on this.

=================================

And these were the questions to Arun
====================================
Questions for Arun_S (or anybody else who may know)

1. Can you confirm from the pictures whether Shaheen-2 is a solid fuelled or liquid fuelled missile

2. Does it seem like a two-stage missile or a single stage missile

3. What would be the typical propellant loading required for a single-stage solid missile that has a 2000kms range (1000kg payload)? Can it be cast in a single grain or would it require segmental casting?

Also, to all
1. Are there any details in any report/paper on the 'refurbishment' of the CSS-2 stock of Saudi Arabia that China carried out some time ago. What did this 'refurbishment' involve?

================================
Shaheen2 - picture 1

Shaheen2 - picture 2

Shaheen2 - video

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 01:35

ramana
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posted 10 March 2004 01:09 PM
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Sridhar, Boss open a new shining thread for this. I suspect if its a two stage missile then its a new height of proliferation threat. Staging technology is not a kindergarden stuff. It has big blow back effects on a whole lot of jihadi capabilities. Also not John Pike's coveing up any Chinese role. If its M-18 then how else did TSP get it by osmosis?
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Rudra Singha
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posted 10 March 2004 01:20 PM
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2500km puts Israel nicely in range. excellent.

let them share the fruits of Unkils dhritarastra
complex on proliferation.
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leonard
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posted 10 March 2004 01:32 PM
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This is a old article by Raman Guru

http://www.saag.org/papers5/paper466.html

GHAZNAVI: Chinese or North Korean or Stolen?
by B. Raman

GHAZNAVI: Chinese or North Korean or Stolen?
by B. Raman

The Pakistani military has benefited from the following sources in its efforts to acquire a missile capability:

* Largely Indigenous with some Chinese inputs: Mainly the HATF-1 (100 kms and 500 Kgs) and HATF-2 (300 Kms and 500 Kgs). These two were developed by the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) and plans for their serial production, at least of HATF-2, were reported to have been abandoned due to their unsatisfactory performance.

* Totally Chinese:HATF-3, which is believed to be the Chinese M-11 (300 kms and 500 kgs);and SHAHEEN I, which is believed to be the Chinese M-9 (700 kms and 500 Kgs). SHAHEEN -I is also sometimes called HATF-4.
* Totally North Korean: Ghauri-I, which is believed to be the North Korean Nodong (1300 kms and 500 to 750 kgs); and Ghauri--II ( claimed to be 2000 kms and 700 kgs), also North Korean Nodong. Ghauri-I is also sometimes called HATF-5.

* Of Uncertain origin: Shaheen--II (claimed 2000 plus kms and 1000 kgs). It was displayed in a military parade in March 2000 and described by Pakistani commentators as a road-mobile, two-stage missile. According to some reports, it is nothing but the Chinese DF-15; according to some other reports, it is actually the North Korean Taepodong. In the past, some Pakistani analysts had also referred to it as Ghaznavi.

* Stolen: Scuds of Soviet origin stolen from Kabul when the Najibullah Government fell in April 1992 and the Afghan Mujahideen captured power. Number and type not known.

The Pakistani military uses its claims regarding its missile holdings and firings as a psychological warfare (Psywar) weapon to reassure its own personnel and public about its nuclear delivery capability; to create concerns in the minds of the Indian public; and to create alarm in the international community about the so-called dangers of a nuclear confrontation if they do not pressurise India to settle the so-called Kashmir dispute to its satisfaction.
As part of this Psywar, different names are often used for the same missile and their performance characteristics are exaggerated. It has also been carrying out its periodic firings as part of this Psywar over its territory, without any firing over the sea in the hope of thereby being able to prevent foreign intelligence agencies, including those of India, from accurately monitoring their performance characteristics.

Commenting on this, in a study made after the firing of the Ghauri-I missile in April,1998, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) of the USA said: "Diverse public pronouncements by various Pakistani officials have tended to obscure rather than clarify the present status of Pakistan's missile programs. The confusion is greatly magnified by the diversity of nomenclature, as the number of missile names evidently greatly exceeds the number of actual missile types."

This tendency of Pakistan could be seen in the announcements emanating from Pakistan about the missile fired on the morning of May 26, 2002, too. Pakistani officials have described the missile fired as HATF-III with a range of 290 kms. However, Nisar Memon, Pakistan's Information Minister, has described it as the first in the GHAZNAVI series of missiles. When SHAHEEN-II was displayed in a military parade in March, 2000, Pakistani commentators had described that too as the first in the GHAZNAVI series of missiles.

The name GHAZNAVI was first used in public by Dr.A.Q.Khan, the so-called father of Pakistan's atomic bomb, after the firing of the GHAURI-I missile in April, 1998. He said that GHAZNAVI would have more advanced performance characteristics than GHAURI-I with a range of 2000 Kms. Western experts had deducted from his statement that Pakistan probably intended to buy the Taepodong from North Korea, where it was still under development, and rebaptise it as GHAZNAVI.

While we should take due note of Pakistani claims, even if exaggerated, it is at the same time necessary to draw the attention of the USA, Japan and other Western countries to the possibility/dangers of Pakistan utilising the increased cash-flow since September, 2001, to add to its nuclear-missile capability through additional clandestine purchases from China and North Korea.

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail: corde@vsnl.com )
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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 01:37

Could somebody please post any details on the Saudi-Pak Naval exercises recently? Where they were held, their aims etc.

I think this test, if it is truly of a Saudi missile, would bring Saudi Arabia into the axis of proliferation, from which it has managed to stay out of till now (except one Arnaud Borchgrave reference). Hence, analyzing this angle is IMHO very important.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Suraj » 11 Mar 2004 01:53

Not of direct relevance to Shaheen 2 but helpful to analyze range claims: great circle mapper

1500 km from Karachi
2000 km from Karachi

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby ramana » 11 Mar 2004 01:59

Here is a link on the recently concluded naval exercises.

http://www.paknews.com/flash.php?id=5&date1=2004-03-07

http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2004/march/03_07_4.html
Looks like they concluded on March 6. The recent test was on Mar 9. Could put them in the splash zone?
--------
Thnks Suraj. Very clear why only 2000km was announced! Guys welcome to the new world!

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Rangudu » 11 Mar 2004 02:05

So the Pakis could have fired the missile a few days ago and claimed it was done yesterday.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby krithivas » 11 Mar 2004 02:12

Didn't the Samar Mubarakmand and proliferation thief AQ Khan have significant professional rivalry(i.e. pi$$ing contest).

If so, this missile launch appears to be a flaunt by the current victor (Samar) and the last loser (AQ Khan).

That is, until they find that Samar stole the missile blueprint from NK.

R> Krithivas

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby ramana » 11 Mar 2004 02:16

R, not necessarily. It means the KSA ships could have sailed away after 3/6 and be able to observe the splash zone. So sridhar could be right. Besides Western agencies are so in bed with these terrorists that their reports cant be trusted? What is the urdu press saying about the shine?

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Ashutosh » 11 Mar 2004 02:24

Well, even 3000kms from Kachra doesn't seem to take care of Israel?

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 02:26

Look at the circle from Quetta, not Karachi.

R: tests require prior notification to India vide the protocol we have signed on missile testing plus a general alert at sea for ships to avoid the designated area. Finally, tests can be monitored, particularly such long range ones for which there was advance notice.

One interesting comment in the following article
http://www.dawn.com/2004/03/10/top1.htm

Speaking at a private TV channel, he said the missile's actual range was up to 2,500km but was restricted to 2,000km so as not to cross Pakistan's declared territorial sea limit.
So it splashed down in Pakistan's territorial waters - which means 20nm from shore if I am not mistaken (correct me if this is incorrect). Thus, it is possible to see if the test could indeed have been of 2000kms range. If it was of 2000kms range, where would it need to be launched from within Pakistan? How far is the territorial waters (at the maximum) from Tilla Jogian?

This will tell us about the true range of the missile. They have always tested the missiles to their true range while claiming larger ranges (e.g. their Nodongs). This analysis is worth doing.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 02:27

Also, can somebody please post the Arnaud de Borchgrave article on the Paki-Saudi nexus. It would be important to see what exactly he wrote. Whether there was anything there that could point to evidence of a missile deal as well.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Suraj » 11 Mar 2004 02:29

Originally posted by Sridhar:
Look at the circle from Quetta, not Karachi.
I was looking at exactly that now: map

Well within range of Israel from western Baluchistan.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 02:34

Actually, Suraj, it appears as if Israel is just out of range if you see map you have posted above.

Interesting.

Added: I don't know where your point of launch is in your map. If it is Quetta, Israel is within range from Western Baluchistan as you said, i.e. west of Quetta.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Suraj » 11 Mar 2004 02:39

Originally posted by Sridhar:
Actually, Suraj, it appears as if Israel is just out of range if you see map you have posted above.

Interesting.
But Quetta is by no means the westernmost point of Pakistan. That's why I mentioned 'western Baluchistan' - if they fired from close to Zahedan in Iran or Gwadar, they can reach the Mediterranean.

3000km from close to Zahedan
3000km from Gwadar

[corrected to say Gwadar and not Bandar Abbas]

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 02:45

As I added in my post, I realized this point. Thanks.

Wait: 2500kms from Gwadur still puts Israel out of reach and 2500 from Zahedan just puts the eastern edge of Israel in reach. Thus, it would be reasonable to assume that 2500kms range puts Israel jus out of reach from the westernmost end of Balochistan. In any case, the cities of Israel are on its east coast.

Thus, range > 2500kms is required to put Israeli cities within reach.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Manu » 11 Mar 2004 03:07

Can you not increase range with slightly lesser payload?

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 03:09

When Pakistan announces the range of its missiles, it is already at its minimum possible payload (or even lower).

For instance, the Ghauri's range can be 1500kms as claimed, with a payload of 200kgs. But the nose cone itself weighs 200kgs. So it is essentially the range of the missile without any bomb. The actual range with a 700kg payload (500kg for the bomb itself) is more like 800-900kms.

I think the same would apply for the Shaheen 2.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby ramana » 11 Mar 2004 03:14

Sridhar so now you see the significance of the remark about 2700km which is not so well quoted.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 03:21

Yup. In fact, I was thinking about it earlier - as to why they put out a non-round figure like 2700 instead of 2500 or 3000. Now it is much clearer, thanks to Suraj's maps.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Suraj » 11 Mar 2004 03:22

The Israelis are not going to like this one bit. Considering the sanguine reaction from New Delhi, I wonder if it was their chankian way of saying "you fired another ? Umm, so what else is new ? Its not us who are p1ssed. Keep your eyes open looking for low flying F-15s with a Star of David on their tail, coming in from the west" :D

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby fanne » 11 Mar 2004 03:25

I guess paki as as usuall lying about the intent. I do not think it is an naswer to Phalcon. As testing a missile does not change anything about the Phalcon deal. I think it is more subtle message to uncle, that DONT attack tsp strategic asset or else we will take down Israel (they must have realised taking down India was not an enough threat for Uncle).

rgds,
fanne

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby AkshayM » 11 Mar 2004 03:27

Originally posted by ramana:
Sridhar so now you see the significance of the remark about 2700km which is not so well quoted.
Please explain ramana or Sridhar. So the range is probably less than 2000 with the payloads.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby ramana » 11 Mar 2004 03:30

Sridhar did you notice the dawn quote of Gen Yusaf about staging technology. Mark my words this is a new low or height of proliferation and will have blowback. Also note the TSP sensitivity to 2000kms range in order not to ruffle uncle's featehrs re Israel but let slip it is 2700km The unstated implication is its OK to put all of India at risk vis a vis uncle's benign consent.
------------
Akshay, 2700kms puts Israel at risk and will invite the wrath. If he really tested at 2000km then uncle can mollify Israel that its only India specific so nothin to worry. If Israel buys it then more power to them.
What this Shine test does is it undoes the Libyan confession(defanging) vis a vis Israel.

Yusaf Khan's quote
"ROLL FORWARD: Vice-Chief of the Army Staff Gen Mohammad Yousaf described the test as a demonstration of a "full-speed roll forward" of the country's nuclear programme.

In a TV interview, he described the test as of "great importance" because it was Pakistan's first experiment of a two-stage missile compared to previous one-stage missiles, such as the Ghauri missile made by the Khan Research Laboratories founded by Dr Khan. "

From link in Dawn: http://www.dawn.com/2004/03/10/top1.htm

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby jarugn » 11 Mar 2004 03:31


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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 03:32

Ramana: What is the relevance of staging and Yusuf's quote. I am unable to put two and two together on this. Thanks.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Venkat » 11 Mar 2004 03:42

Just an opinion

what abt this scenario
a. OBL is a prize catch which is really desirable for US election
b. US would like GOLA to be in the power seat since letting him go would bring chaos in TSP

by looking at the events after public apology of xerox khan

US wants TSP to spend its illegal and longer range missiles. since it may affect israel

also by the way GOI is also quiet so may be some chanakiyan strategy may be brewed by bapus so GOI gets phalcon ASAP and TSP spends its long range missile vault; a win win for US and india

even china would be happy for this since it gets its back saved regarding nuclear proliferation

it is like removing tsp underpants without removing the pants.
:-)

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby jrjrao » 11 Mar 2004 03:53

As expected, the Dung editorial on the missile test is dripping with everything that is preciously diseased in the Paki mind.

"God, we tested, because India made us do it. God, it is India. India alone. Did'nt I say India, God? India, will you please stop being India from now on? God, it really is India, God!"

<a href="http://jang.com.pk/thenews/mar2004-daily/11-03-2004/oped/editorial.htm" target="_blank"> :rotfl:

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby ramana » 11 Mar 2004 04:02

Sridhar, Staging a rocket is quite tricky as it involves multiple technologies- timers, explosive stage separation mechanisms etc. So what has happened is quite an important milestone has been crossed. Yusaf mian is quite proud of it. Also by this vehicle the denuking of Libya is made irrelevant. So lots of ramifications in this.

I personally think that AIII should be demonstrated to let Beiijng know its at risk in case of madness in TSP.

added:
If Ghauri test was the crossing of Rubicon for India this will be the same for many other countries.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby jrjrao » 11 Mar 2004 04:05

Similar reaction from the E-a-S:
The launching of Shaheen-II missile represents the will and determination of the Pakistani nation to live with dignity and honour. The people of Pakistan have had, in fact, testing times due to the series of tests of Akash, Agni and Prithvi missiles by India in recent months. The test-firing of the Shaheen-II missile was, therefore, a timely step to banish the negative effect of the Indian missile tests.
IOW, TFTA Pakis can feel taller and tighter because they fired some missile. IOW, collectively as a so-called "country", the Pakis have mental stability and rationality equal to ZERO.

But not to worry - With a sure cure, the good Doctor Al Bin Santa Powell is coming to town!

http://www.pakobserver.net/200403/11/default.asp?id=8

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 04:08

Originally posted by ramana:
Sridhar, Staging a rocket is quite tricky as it involves multiple technologies- timers, explosive stage separation mechanisms etc. So what has happened is quite an important milestone has been crossed. Yusaf mian is quite proud of it. Also by this vehicle the denuking of Libya is made irrelevant. So lots of ramifications in this.

I personally think that AIII should be demonstrated to let Beiijng know its at risk in case of madness in TSP.
Thanks. My question was going a bit further than Israel. As far as Israel is concerned, how does it matter to them if it is two-stage vs. single stage, as long as the range is adequate. However, there is only so far you can go with a single stage. So staging gives you the capability to go further than a certain limit. The possibilities open up for more than an IRBM (maybe in the distant future, but a possibility nevertheless). India' muted reaction to this test is completely understandable in this context. S-2 has little to do with India. India's situation has changed very little since 1999. As you say, others' have been added to the worry list now.

Regarding AIII - I remember GF's statement (or maybe Atre's) giving a timeframe of end of 2004. Or am I remembering this incorrectly?

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby James Bund » 11 Mar 2004 04:13

Hehe, so we have fully indigenous 3000km,2 stage capability have we.But they only thing Paks have tried to fire upwards into orbit is their pilots from crumbling Chinese Mig 19 copies.

A 3000km range but no orbiting mission-muhahaha!
I guess the Pakistani public is kept from schooling for a reason.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby SaiK » 11 Mar 2004 04:14

if chankiyan, and china is happy about nu proli stuff, then we are ought to find out how things turn, when our mark III agni re-marks striking range.

thanks to shaheen 2. thanks to chinese silence!

win-win-win for India, as washington only told pakistanis to "only" scale down missile tests, and not "stop it~!".

mmmm... before bin layeden is arrested, we better ready our sun-fire! ;)

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Suraj » 11 Mar 2004 04:16

Originally posted by Sridhar:
Regarding AIII - I remember GF's statement (or maybe Atre's) giving a timeframe of end of 2004. Or am I remembering this incorrectly?
ToI suggests GF was non-committal on the date.
IE seems to confirm the statement. Probably in late summer. Maybe earlier if the NDA comes back to power and feels like taking a good fart before getting started on their next term :)

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Gerard » 11 Mar 2004 04:17

Didn't Iraq develop multi-stage missiles in the 1980s?
I seem to recall names like Al-Hussain etc.

So it took Pakistan, a nukulah power, twenty five years to do what Iraq did?

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby SaiK » 11 Mar 2004 04:27

A3 :-

{So as not to provoke an already destabilized Pakistan...}

concern:
80 Chinese-built M-11 ballistic missiles, with a range of 300 kilometers (adequate to reach New Delhi), are stockpiled in the northeast corner of Pakistan targeted at India

The Pakistani military is actively trying to acquire ballistic missiles with greater ranges including copies of various Chinese and North Korean types.

-
Pakistan is not India's sole concern regarding a nuclear arms buildup; China's possession of an estimated 300 to 600 nuclear warheads is a major factor. According to a January 20, 2003 report in Defense News, a senior Indian Ministry of Defense official called the Agni-III, "China-specific."

"In addition, under the Sino-Pak Boundary agreement of 1963, Pakistan has illegally ceded an additional 5,180 square kilometers to China." As well, China supplies weapons and equipment, including ballistic missiles, to nearly all the states surrounding India: Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Myanmar and Bangladesh.

The Agni-III is expected to be tested by the end of 2003 or early 2004.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby SaiK » 11 Mar 2004 04:35

Pakistan's long-range Shaheen-2 ballistic missile is an improved variant of the Chinese M-18 IRBM, developed in close cooperation with Beijing. pic

China & Pakistan Move Closer on ‘Official’ Nuclear Cooperation

The Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction,”

http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/721_reports/jan_jun2003.htm

Beijing officials also admit that the government cannot fully control what individual firms sell to countries like Iran and Pakistan

Washington has imposed economic sanctions on a number of Chinese firms accused of links to Pakistan, Iran and North Korea.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby A_Gupta » 11 Mar 2004 05:02

Chitral : 35:51N, 71:50E
Gwadar : 25:07N 62:20E
Distance as crow flies : 1497 km.

The great circle probably includes overflight over Afghanistan.

Pakistan's Exclusive Economic Zone extends 200 nautical miles, so they could really have done only around 1820 km if they remained over their own territory.

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/pakistan_pol_2002.pdf


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