Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Sarma
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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sarma » 11 Mar 2004 05:36

Agni-III launch would be as much a response to Pakistan and China as Pokharan-II was.

Testing of Ghauri was the last straw on the back of the nuclear restraint camel. Testing of Shaheen-II would just be the beginning in the Indian response to China. Look forward to India going full steam ahead with ICBM and other long range missile programmes.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby shiv » 11 Mar 2004 05:59

Sridhar - I think it is a good ideea to collect this information - at least to sort out the genealogy of these missiles - which seem to make a connection between China, Pakland, North Korea and Saudi Arabia.

But isn't it strange that no-one has "condemned" this Shaheen test as "an unfortunate event" - an "aggravation of tension"?

One explanation could be just international callousness - i.e. nobody being bothered about it. But surely - at least Israel should be bothered . And why no squeak from Japan and the EU?

On alternative explanation that comes to mind fits in with the offcial Indian statement to the media - that is the test is for domestic consumption in Pakistan, The test boosts the image of the incumbent Paki military government - which is being seen as cooperative in ways that Notrh Korea cannot be sadi to be cooperative.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Rangudu » 11 Mar 2004 06:02

Shiv,

Japan is the only nation to have "regretted" this test.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sunil » 11 Mar 2004 06:02

Oye!

Can we keep the Agni III stuff off?

This thread is about the Shaheen II and its proliferation implications.

I am looking forward to changing Pakistan's name to "proliferation-stan".

The Japanese are probably whining because this means that DPRK is going to get some of this good stuff and for all we know the Pakistani blew Japanese aid money on this program.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby James Bund » 11 Mar 2004 06:16

What is the evidence that Shaheen 2 has issued forth, like Karna, fully ready? Pakistan can't design a 4 cyclinder engine, but it can build a heat shield and guidance system? I don't think China would want Pakistan to test any of their hardware at this awkward time. There is no independent confirmation of range. There is no empirical evidence of such a missile. Maybe that's why the world is sanguine ablout Shaheen.

Again SLV capability is imlicit in an IRBM and is a simpler achievement as it dispenses with re-entry and targetting. But neither Nort Korea nor Pakistan have orbited a satellite.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Rudra » 11 Mar 2004 06:20

Japan has been trying to bribe Pak for a decade
now in hopes the capabilities dont filter back
to N.Korea - a hostile stance towards India was part of it.

They must be absolutely mortified now to see none
of that worked and paks just took them for a ride.
NK now has both the fruits of Pak labour - improved missile tech and nuke tech...both pointed towards S.korea and Japan.

privately, some higher ups must be holding ceremonies to profess their shame and repentence as a form of CYA.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sunil » 11 Mar 2004 06:22

Hi,

This isn't making sense.

The Pakistanis claim to have flown out of Sonmiani near Karachi. They also claim that the missile was launched to the limit of Pakistan's territorial waters (200 nM) and that the total distance travelled was ~1800 Km.

I think that 1800 is inflated, if the missile actually landed in Pakistani territorial waters after take off from Sonmiani.

If it did take off from Sonmiani and landed 1800 Km away then it would have fallen somewhere in the middle of the arabian sea or off the coast of Yemen.

I am curious to see which Pakistani ships can operate that far and which Saudi Ships were in the area.

It is also possible that the missile did not take of from Sonmiani as stated and instead took off from some other place in Pakistan.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Kumar » 11 Mar 2004 06:29

Agni-III was supposed to be tested by the end of 2003. GF announced that it will be tested in Jan 2004. Perhaps a feel-gooder for the republic day. But then talks of preponing the national elections started and Atre announced that Agni-III will be tested in two-to-three months.

My judgement was that due to coming elections, the tests were put off till the campaign time, so as to have maximum impact on the electorate.

I think Agni-III will be tested before the elections start in April. For maximum bragging benefits for the NDA, the tests should happen right about now when the election campaign is just starting.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby ramana » 11 Mar 2004 06:36

Ashok, Please no Agony stories here. Only shiney ones.

Is there any link to this story and the recent test?

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/02/16/1076779903675.html

China's Saudi-Pakistan weapon links trouble US
By Carol Giacomo
Washington
February 17, 2004

The United States believes China is still co-operating with Saudi Arabia on missiles and with Pakistan on nuclear technology and missiles, despite Beijing's promises to control arms proliferation, US officials said.

These are among the subjects expected to be discussed when senior US and Chinese officials meet this week in Beijing, the officials said.

Undersecretary of State John Bolton, the top US nonproliferation official, plans to encourage the Chinese to participate in an international arms crackdown, but Beijing's own activities will also be a focus, officials said.

The focus on proliferation has intensified since the father of Pakistan's atomic weapons program, Adbul Qadeer Khan, confessed to selling nuclear secrets to Libya, Iran and North Korea.

The Bush Administration considers Iran and North Korea the greatest near-term proliferation threats. But it is also "concerned about what the Saudis are getting from the Chinese in terms of missiles", a US official said.

Experts say ballistic missiles are most useful for delivering weapons of mass destruction and this would be especially worrisome if Islamic radicals took control in Riyadh or if the current Saudi rulers felt threatened by an Iranian nuclear bomb.

For some time, experts have speculated that Saudi Arabia helped fund the Pakistani nuclear program with the expectation that at some point it would gain access to a nuclear weapon.

In recent interviews, several senior US officials were cagey about a possible Saudi nuclear program.

Saudi Arabia is a key US ally and has co-operated in the war on terrorism. But the relationship is often shrouded in secrecy.

According to Richard Russell of Georgetown University, the Saudis "already have in place a foundation for building a nuclear weapons deterrent".

In the mid-1980s, Riyadh secretly negotiated the purchase of 50 to 60 Chinese CSS-2 missiles, with a range of 4000 kilometres, US officials said.

Riyadh and Beijing said the missiles delivered to Saudi Arabia had conventional warheads and rebuffed American requests to inspect them, Dr Russell said.

- Reuters

This story was found at: http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/02/16/1076779903675.html

-------------
As the song in Kal Ho Na Ho says its time to disco!

---------
Are there any visitors rushing to and from from KSA, TSP and the dragon after the test?

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby arun » 11 Mar 2004 06:52

Back to the Asher Karni, Perkin Elmer "triggered spark gap" saga.

Perhaps that had nothing to do with nuclear weapons, but instead for use in stage seperation. IIRC Perkin Elmer listed satge seperation as one of its applications with the triggered spark gaps used to intitiate the explosive etc stage seperation process.

I bring this up given VCOAS Gen. Yousaf Khan's staement in Dawn posted above about this being Pakistan's first experiment in stage seperation.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 06:57

Sunil:

Is there any official (or even official sources) type claim that it was launched from Somniani? The video is also unclear. It does not seem like Tilla Jogian though.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Philip » 11 Mar 2004 07:01

Whatever the source of this latest addition to pak's missile capability,the undisputed fact that the "Godfathers" of the entire Pak ballistic missile and nuclear capability and proliferation are the Chinese.One must understand that for decades the Chinese official policy was to undermine the nuclear superiority of the west,in particular that of the US by covert proliferation of WMDs.China's "Israel",Pakistan,was the prime benificiary of this policy,as it was very effectively used to counter India,China's great Asian rival.Keeping India constantly focussed on its western borders prevented India from supporting the Tibetan cause and a weak Indian foreign policy gifted away Tibet to China.

The second beneficiary of proliferation was N.Korea,China's closest ideological ally.N.Korea was used By China to counter Japan in particular and the S.Korean puppet regime of the US.The historic animosity between Korea and Japan,thabks to the horrific atrocities committed by Japanese in their invasions of the Korean peninsula ,including the atrocities committed during WW2 and the looting of Korea's wealth proved easy to accomplish.N.Korea was also a secret supplier of banned military technology to Islamic countries after the US turnedhe screw on China's exports of the same worldwide.China needed huge inflows of US capital to spur economic growth while it needed the secret arms transfers to penetrate the oil rich states of the Middle East.China's long term plan is to supplant Us influence in the Gulf and Middle east as its oil requirements will be immense in the coming years.

In more recent times,India's warming up to the US has alarmed China.India protecting US warships in the Malacca Straits from pirates,who are closely linked to mainland Chinese groups with connections to the military,conducting joint military exercises unimaginable a few years ago,including air exercises over the Himalayas recently with Tibet in sight,has spurred another round of active Chinese diplomatic and military operations.China has accelerated its military moves in Burma,threatening India in the bay of Bengal.A secret pact with Bangladesh supports the encirclement of India in this part of the IOR.Another recent coup has been a lease arrngement of a Maldivian atoll,quite unthinkable when it was Indai under rajiv gandhi that saved Gyoom from a Lankan Tamil coup attempt.China is also bulding a massive naval base for Pak,with facilities for Chinese subs and is to hold a major exercise with the Chinese navy next year.China is also modernising the saudi ballistic missile capability through tis agent Pak as well as secretly supplying nuclear tech and most probabaly warheads to the saudis.The Pak saudi nuclear nexus has been ignored by the US in the recent scandals involving Pak's proliferation beacuse the US at this juncture cannot antagonise the saudis when they are being screwed in Iraq and need saudi oil.

Sino-Indian realtions only appear to be improving on the surface.The Chinese throw us a few scraps from its table and we somersault with joy!The relentless encirclement of India has also been accelerated by the Chinese because they completely mistrust us on the extent of our relationship with the US,which they now perceive as being "anti-Chinese".Musharraf has also gained a little self respect by testing this new missile to counter the criticism of his betrayal ofthe entire Pak nuclear programme to the US by exposing Dr.Khan to the wolves.

We are in for even more "testing" times if our military relationship with the US is cemented further,by bringing India into the US's orbit of oprations in the future.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby arun » 11 Mar 2004 07:04

Sridhar,

Given that Tilla is just some 80 odd km from Islamabad is that not too risky even for the Pakistani's to contemplate, moreso given the need to dump a spent stage?

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Alok Niranjan » 11 Mar 2004 07:07

I finally got to see the video. The concerns about the flattish trajectory are not that serious.

The missile, if it did indeed travel for 2,000 km, had a half-base of 1,000 km in its trajectory. It could reach a height of 150 km (and thus far outside the atmosphere) with a 15% grade (in the absence of gravity and curvature, two offsetting effects).

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 07:13

They have tested from Punjab before. But you are right - if it is indeed a two-stage missile, there is the issue of the spent stage. The possibility of testing over land remains nevertheless since much of Balochistan and areas of Sindh bordering Balochistan are virtually uninhabited.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby James Bund » 11 Mar 2004 07:17

Sino-Indian realtions only appear to be improving on the surface.The Chinese throw us a few scraps from its table and we somersault with joy

I think you are being uncharitable. Thermonukes, Agni III, ATV, space command, ?beam/microwave munitions, 200 Su 30MKI,a base in Central Asia are not Pakistan specific.
The Dalai Lama still has a government-in-exile in India. And yes India's de facto alliance with the US is a red hot poker in the Chinese eye.

China is surrounded with potential enemies with a very deep animosity only just beneath the surface, witness the massacres of ethnic Chinese in Indonesia 2-3 yrs ago. India's position hit a nadir 5-10 yrs ago. Now the power imbalance will, inshallah, be corrected as the lessons of a freee enterprise economy are learned by a formerly socialist society.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby shiv » 11 Mar 2004 07:38

Originally posted by sunil s:
Oye!

Can we keep the Agni III stuff off?
.
Absolutely.

A whole lot of Indians feel a deep need to match/mirror Pakistan just as we accuse Pakistan of wanting to match India.

WE need to break out - so let there be no further refs to Agni 3 here. It can go in the existing missiles thread or in a new piskology thread.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Pulikeshi » 11 Mar 2004 07:47

Is there a correlation between a major GUBO by TSP and a nodong missle launch???

If so what is it this time? Has TSP agreed to host US troops in the search for OBL in uncontrolable-istan?

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Vivek_A » 11 Mar 2004 07:57

Looks like Xerox is being hung out to dry...and ghauri was liquid fueled?

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_11-3-2004_pg3_1

Mr Mand had said it then too but no one had paid any attention to his remarks, so overwhelmed was the establishment by Mr Khan’s unerring PR. So now we know that Dr Khan’s Kahuta lab had nothing to do with the atomic testing; Dr Khan’s contribution was important — the enrichment of uranium — but not central to the 1998 test. Mr Mand added a nugget to that, saying that the Ghauri missile that underpinned the 1998 test was AQ Khan’s but it was liquid-fuel, and that the solid-fuel Shaheen belonged to the organisations working under the umbrella of the Atomic Energy Commission.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby shiv » 11 Mar 2004 08:04

Originally posted by philip fowler:


In more recent times,India's warming up to the US has alarmed China.India protecting US warships in the Malacca Straits from pirates,who are closely linked to mainland Chinese groups with connections to the military,conducting joint military exercises unimaginable a few years ago,including air exercises over the Himalayas recently with Tibet in sight,has spurred another round of active Chinese diplomatic and military operations.China has accelerated its military moves in Burma,threatening India in the bay of Bengal.A secret pact with Bangladesh supports the encirclement of India in this part of the IOR.Another recent coup has been a lease arrngement of a Maldivian atoll,quite unthinkable when it was Indai under rajiv gandhi that saved Gyoom from a Lankan Tamil coup attempt.China is also bulding a massive naval base for Pak,with facilities for Chinese subs and is to hold a major exercise with the Chinese navy next year.China is also modernising the saudi ballistic missile capability through tis agent Pak as well as secretly supplying nuclear tech and most probabaly warheads to the saudis.The Pak saudi nuclear nexus has been ignored by the US in the recent scandals involving Pak's proliferation beacuse the US at this juncture cannot antagonise the saudis when they are being screwed in Iraq and need saudi oil.
Pefectly true as far as I can see - and I know Philip has been saying this for ages.

Sorry to divert. But let me make a point that I think is important - a point similar to one that we made about Pakistan when we learned to differentiate between who is who in Pakistan. We taught ourselves the difference between RAPE/Mulla/fundoo etc in Pakland.

I think that when we say "China is doing xyz" it is worth looking at who exactly in China would do this. It is the Chinese government - which is basically the communist party of China and the military. In 1.3 billion China the Chicoms and the military are an oligarchy that:

1)Rule the country with an iron grip that they wil not give up

2)They have learned that unity and loyalty of people can be bought by economic "liberalization" and allowing some private ownership and private wealth

3)They are still unable to go the whole hog and give all the freedoms that people may want - and there remain a lot of internal problems in China, hidden away.

All these 3 points have weakness that can and must be exploited by India. The US is doing it already - and India needs to attack China on those fronts as well - apart from military responses to China. China can be put on the defensive by hitting out at its weak points. The Chinese tend to react with great anger and sarcasm and more perfidy when their weak points are tweaked - but that is a good sign - it means that the weak points have been successfully tweaked. But that is a serious digression - sorry.

Maybe I wil start a new thread with some thought son this :D

JMT

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Arun_S » 11 Mar 2004 08:11

Let there be no doubt about Ghauri's capability. This N.Korean missile can easily perform the following:

Pakistan Gauri - DPRK Nodong. Based on open source data from FAS. 750Kg to 1,475Km.

Dead Weight (kg) = 1,780 to 2,180 means Mass Fraction of (0.882 to 0.855)

MF 0.88 range with 760 Kg RV+paylod is 1600Km , wih 500Kg RV it is 1842Km.

As for the Shaeen-II there is hardly any data on weight of the two stages that simulation is not very useful. For such large missiles the range is very sensitive to Stage Mass Fraction. Just a few percentage point variation has big impact on range.

Assuming an ordinary Mass Fraction of 0.81 (I'st stage) & 0.83 (second stage) the 26 tonne Shaheen can throw 750 Kg across 2,800 Km. OR 500 Kg across 3,200 Km.

An slightly better Mass Fraction of 0.83 (I'st stage) & 0.85 (second stage) the 26 tonne Shaheen can throw 750 Kg across 3,200 Km. OR 500 Kg across 3,800 Km.

It would be very clear to people in the trade that the Pakistani 26 tonne missile threatens their interested 3200Km from the Worst Nuclear Proliferator aka TSP.

That is I think one reason Japan is so upset, but more imporatent is the dog(s) that did not bark(yet). I.e. USA, UK, Iran, Russia, Isreal, Turkey and Italy.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Ashok » 11 Mar 2004 08:26

Philip/Shiv, could you point me to the original news item reporting this Maldivian perfidy? I seem to have missed it completely until now: the silence of the "news" reporting agencies on this horrendous bit of news, if true, is deafening!

Originally posted by philip fowler:
...Another recent coup has been a lease arrangement of a Maldivian atoll,quite unthinkable when it was India under rajiv gandhi that saved Gayoom from a Lankan Tamil coup attempt...

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 08:42

Arun_S:

I was basing the 200kg to 1500kms comment on this article. But I defer to your superior knowledge in this regard.

http://www.fas.org/news/pakistan/1998/04/980423-pak-m.htm

It is interesting to note that if the payload of such a missile were reduced from 700 kg to 200 kg, the range would increase to roughly 1,500 kilometers, which is the reported to be the maximum range. A payload of 200 kg might be roughly the smallest possible since it could represent the structural mass of the nose section without a warhead
The article seems to suggest that the Ghauri is somewhat smaller than a Nodong.

Also, when I fed his numbers in the article into the simulator, we get a range of approx. 1600kms for a 200kg payload - close to the 1500kms he suggests. Thus, the crux is in the assumptions.

(He assumed a 85% fuel mass fraction against 88% in the simulator's configuration for the Ghauri and this makes all the difference as you say - at 88%, the range goes up to 2200kms for 200kgs).

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Arun_S » 11 Mar 2004 08:54

IIRC FAS reports the warhead payload and does not report the RV.

From what appears in the photo the Shaheen RV is small not like the Indian Agni that surely houses more than just weapon. thus the RV weight can be quite small.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby payani » 11 Mar 2004 09:17

Originally posted by M.T.Wheeler:
Philip/Shiv, could you point me to the original news item reporting this Maldivian perfidy? I seem to have missed it completely until now: the silence of the "news" reporting agencies on this horrendous bit of news, if true, is deafening!

Originally posted by philip fowler:
...Another recent coup has been a lease arrangement of a Maldivian atoll,quite unthinkable when it was India under rajiv gandhi that saved Gayoom from a Lankan Tamil coup attempt...
Check this link..

China's base in the Maldives?


China may have clinched a deal with the Maldives to build a naval facility capable of hosting submarines on the island of Marao, 40 km from the capital Male.

It will allow China to lease the island for 25 years and develop it, which means jobs for the locals. Pakistan apparently, was instrumental in 'persuading' the Maldives to lease the island to the Chinese

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sunil » 11 Mar 2004 19:05

In grand strategic terms I am compelled to say that Pakistan has shifted from having only short thick missiles to long thin ones. This is a very big change in their personality. I know we are all told that size doesn't matter but as my copy of Maxim tells me that is just said to make all the vertically challenged guys feel better. And that is long and short of it.

I also want to take this opportunity to tell all of you that Chaz and AJ on 99.1FM have told me that summer is coming and there is much to rejoice. My friend I spoke to two days ago saw the gyrations on the Shaheen video and said..
"It is the time to disco!.."

and before I forget it is official, my Agony Aunt has told me to tell you guys to focus on the Shiney and to stfu about everything else.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sunil » 11 Mar 2004 19:31

Sridhar,

http://www.pakistanidefence.com/news/FullNews/2004/Feb2004/Shaheen2TestInMonth.htm

"Pakistan To Test Shaheen-II Ballistic Missile Next Month

February 08, 2004: Pakistan will test fire next month its long-range, solid fuel Shaheen-II missile capable of carrying nuclear and conventional warheads up to 2000 km, General Musharraf said Thursday. “We are continuing our missile and nuclear programs,” Musharraf said.

He said during the last four years Pakistan had rapidly developed its nuclear and missile technology to maintain the deterrence level.The foremost objective, he said, was to attain quantified deterrence level. “Now this has gone beyond that level and we are still continuing.” He said Pakistan was a recognized nuclear and missile state and its strategic assets were under the National Command Authority which was an effective command and control system.

Shaheen-II missile will be test fired from Sonmiani launching facility and it will land at its target in the Arabian Sea. Pakistan Navy will supervise the landing of the missile that can carry payload up to one ton. Shaheen-II is three times the size of Shaheen-I, which could reach at its target 800 km away."

Another editorial.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_11-3-2004_pg3_1

" EDITORIAL: The ‘signalling’ behind Shaheen II

Pakistan has tested its solid-fuel Shaheen II missile that is capable of hitting India anywhere within a range of 2,000 km. The government hopes that this will put paid to unfounded fears about any roll back of Pakistan’s nuclear programme. The ‘signalling’ here is aimed at two directions: The world outside, especially the United States; and the people of Pakistan. "

"the testing of Shaheen II was a signal that Pakistan was not losing backbone over the issue and would retain its ‘minimal nuclear deterrence’ against all odds. Shaheen II was also used to switch off criticism from the domestic opposition that the Americans had the Musharraf-Jamali government over a barrel. The counter thrust is that Pakistan’s single most popular project — the bomb — is safe and in more capable of destroying India than ever before. The noise over a possible rollback was made by the MMA clerics — who have almost a religious faith in the nuclear programme as an instrument of future jihad — and Mr Nawaz Sharif and Ms Benazir Bhutto who both claimed that they were the best wet-nurses of the bomb after it was born in Pakistan. In respect of national politics, therefore the testing of the missile is a kind of minor coup, given the kind of love people have for the bomb, that is aimed at offsetting the alarm raised by opposition political parties about excessive fraternising with the enemy on the eastern border, (read) giving up Kashmir and playing cricket instead."

"The French foreign minister recently made the first reference in the West to Pakistan’s status as a nuclear power. Of course that would mean taking care of the other two states that have not signed the NPT, namely India and Israel. But our foreign minister, Mr Khursheed Kasuri, has suggested that Pakistan could be accepted as a nuclear power outside the NPT through some other international instrument. All that is very well. But we know that before that happens, Pakistan would be obliged to accept the premier paradox of nuclear weapons: a total removal of the prospect of war and the irritants that may unleash it. For Pakistan this will mean starting over again. We cannot remain tied to the identity of a revisionist state. If the status quo has to be changed, let it be changed to enable us to fulfil the dream of trade and transit pipelines from Central Asia and Iran to South and South East Asia and beyond through Pakistan. *"

(This last paragraph is the most stunning admission of its kind I have ever seen in Pakistan. This hero is basically admitting that Pakistanis have to get over this irrendentist ga*nd mey khujli - i.e. itch in the a*se if they expect to be treated as a responsible nuclear power on the world stage.. this is effectively an end to the Jihad culture that drives Pakistan. I don't know how many Pakistanis will get this- especially since the RAPE are exceptionally poor communicators when it comes to this.)

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sunil » 11 Mar 2004 19:43

American Reactions

(My comment: Appear to be dull and muted. Its clear they don't like it but they can't make a fuss about it)

http://www.hipakistan.com/en/detail.php?newsId=en57021&F_catID=&f_type=source

"Commenting on the test, defence experts in Washington said it was a display of Pakistan's adherence to the theory of nuclear deterrence in South Asia. Robert Einhorn, a senior adviser for international security at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes the test was "completely independent of the controversy involving Pakistani scientists who exported nuclear materials to Iran, Libya and North Korea."

By testing the missile, Pakistanis made it clear that "they want to continue to pursue their deterrence capability. It's an indication that they are moving forward," said Mr Einhorn.

Mr Krepon of the Henry L. Stimson Center proposed some measures he believes can help reduce the nuclear threat in the South Asian regions. These include: "an agreement only to test missiles from designated test ranges and in a direction away from the other country, to provide normal notification with longer time, range of flight tests and prior notification of when missiles are moved from their bases." Currently, India and Pakistan notify each other two to three days before conducting a test.

"Missile flight testing is not going to stop in South Asia, what can be done is to reduce anxiety and to clarify non-threatening postures," said Mr Krepon. "What Pakistan does after the resumption of talks with India will demonstrate it is a responsible country.

A responsible state does not attach nuclear risk reduction to Kashmir. It does not call Kashmir a nuclear flash point. It can demonstrate its responsibility by ending jihadi groups that are crossing the Line of Control," Mr Krepon said. "

(My Comment: OMG!!! is that KREPON saying what I think he is???? Wow wow wow...)

http://www.hipakistan.com/en/detail.php?newsId=en57041&F_catID=&f_type=source

US asks Pakistan to go slow in missile testing

NEW YORK - The United States Tuesday urged Pakistan to slow down its testing after the launch of a ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

‘We continue to urge Pakistan and other countries in the region to exercise restraint in their nuclear weapons and missile programmes, as part of an ongoing effort to relieve tensions and build confidence in the region,’ State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said, responding to a question.

Following is the transcript of the question and the answer:

Question: What is the US reaction to Tuesday’s missile test in Pakistan?

Answer: Pakistan tested its Shaheen II intermediate-range ballistic missile. We understand that Pakistan notified neighbouring countries before the test. We continue to urge Pakistan and other countries in the region to exercise restraint in their nuclear weapons and missile programmes, as part of an ongoing effort to relieve tensions and build confidence in the region.

(My Comment: Provided for your entertainment Twitus Maximus, alias Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf of Washington... the most intelligent comment that this guy ever made was "Duh..")

Reactions in the Pakistani Parliament.

http://www.paktribune.com/news/index.php?id=57693

US asks Pak to scale down missile testing
Wednesday March 10, 2004 (1532 PST)

US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher during the Press Conference.

WASHINGTON, March 11 (Online): The United States has asked Pakistan to scale back its testing, after the launch of a ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.
We continue to urge Pakistan and other countries in the region to exercise restraint in their nuclear weapons and missile programs, as part of an ongoing effort to relieve tensions and build confidence in the region," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said.

"We understand that Pakistan notified neighbouring countries before the test," he added.

The test was the first of the locally-built Shaheen II or Hatf-VI missile, which can carry warheads up to 2,000 kilometers.

Treasury admits Bhutto’s role in missile development

Treasury Thursday admitted that the missile program was initiated during the tenure of the former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

Senator Lt. Gen. (Retd) Javed Ashraf Qazi of the ruling PML-Q informed the House that the missile program was launched during Benazir Bhutto 's first government (1988-1990).

He was responding to the point raised by the PML-N Senator Ishaq Dar who gave credit to Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, as well as Zulfikar Ali Bhutto for launching nuclear and missile programs.

Gen. Javed Ashraf Qazi said that SUPARCO could not develop guided missile and the task of its development was handed over to KRL and another organization.

He admitted that in second tenure of Benazir Bhutto (1993-1996) work on development of the missile remained in progress.

Former ISI chief was also praiseful of Benazir Bhutto for launching missile program.

He however tried to cut Nawaz Sharif 's role to size and accused former Premier of cutting the budget of science and technology.

He recalled that even a meeting of the national commission for science and technology was not called.

Earlier Ishaq Dar of the PML-N congratulated Dr Samar Mubarikmand, all scientists, and engineers for developing nuclear capable longest-range 2000 kilometers Shaheen- two missile.

He also lauded the role of three former Prime ministers Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto for developing nuclear and missile programs.

Prof. Ghafoor Ahmed of the MMA said that former and present rulers deserve credit for developing missile and nuclear programs.

Another Senator of treasury benches Mohammed Ali Durrani of the Millat Party said that missile test has negated opposition 's charges of rolling back of nuclear and missile programs.

He asked opposition to apologize for its false propaganda.

He said people did not allow any ruler to role back vital program.

Meanwhile, Senate Wednesday unanimously congratulated scientists and engineers on test fire of nuclear capable longest-range 2000 kilometers Shaheen- two missile.

Rising on a point of order Ishaq Dar of the PML-N congratulated Dr Samar Mubarikmand, all scientists, and engineers for developing nuclear capable longest-range 2000 kilometers Shaheen- two missile.

He also lauded the role of three former Prime ministers Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto for developing nuclear and missile programs.

Prof. Ghafoor Ahmed of the MMA said that former and present rulers deserve credit for developing, advancing and testing missile and nuclear programs.

During the debate even treasury members admitted the role played by Bhuttos in launching missile and nuclear program.

Senator Lt. Gen. (Retd) Javed Ashraf Qazi of the ruling PML-Q informed the House that the missile program was launched during Benazir Bhutto 's first government (1988-1990).

He was responding to the point raised by the PML-N Senator Ishaq Dar who gave credit to Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, as well as Zulfikar Ali Bhutto for launching nuclear and missile programs.

Gen. Javed Ashraf Qazi said that SUPARCO could not develop guided missile and the task of its development was handed over to KRL and another organization.

He admitted that in second tenure of Benazir Bhutto (1993-1996) work on development of the missile remained in progress.

Former ISI chief was also praiseful of Benazir Bhutto for launching missile program.

He however tried to cut Nawaz Sharif 's role to size and accused former Premier of cutting the budget of science and technology.

He recalled that even a meeting of the national commission for science and technology was not called.

Another Senator of treasury benches Mohammed Ali Durrani of the Millat Party also admitted role of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in launching the program.

He said that missile test has negated opposition 's charges of rolling back of nuclear and missile programs.

He asked opposition to apologize for its false propaganda.

He said people did not allow any ruler to role back vital program.

PPP welcomes test firing of Shaheen II missile

Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has expressed pleasure on the successful launch of Shaheen-II missile.

The PPP is happy to note that the missile development programme initiated and nurtured under the Party’s governments has taken yet another step forward, former Defence Minister and Senior Central Leader of the PPP in a statement said this on Wednesday.

“The Party salutes the Chairperson Benazir Bhutto for this success as it was during her two stints in office as Prime Minister that the nation committed itself to acquiring missile technology as well.

“The Party recalls with pride and satisfaction that during Bhutto’s first government, she gave the country the short range missile capability. During her second tenure, Bhutto laid the foundations and infrastructure for the development of long-range missiles by providing the crucial political and financial support to it.

“It is painful to realise what the politically ambitious generals have done to the father and daughter Prime Ministers of the country who gave the nation the nuclear and missile capabilities. The first directly elected Prime Minister Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto who gave us nuclear technology was executed through a judicial murder and Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto who gave the missile technology has been banished into exile and is being hounded”, he said.

End.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sunil » 11 Mar 2004 19:59

Old material about the 1999 Shaheen-1 Test.

<a href=http://groups.google.com/groups?q=Sonmiani&start=20&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&safe=off&selm=20010612203032.22820.00003513%40ng-mj1.aol.com&rnum=21>linc</a>

The missile turned right after lifting for a few hundred feet and then commenced its journey. The chants could be heard till the time Shaheen was in view. I looked below and saw that all the people who had been working in the complex had gathered beneath the observation post and were congratulating and hugging each other with watery eyes.

I went inside the observation room. Second to second detail of the missile’s journey could be observed on the computer. The computer screen was changing colors every second and was presenting different types of data. All the
electronic instruments installed in the missile were functioning properly. The tracking stations in the path of the missile were connected with the control room and the observation post through computer as well as through hot line.
Each station in-charge would notify us of the arrival of the missile over his tracking station with congratulatory words. It took 6 minutes for the missile to complete its flight over the Bolan Valley and reach its target at Naukandi. The last tracking station informed us of the
missile’s arrival at its destination by saying Alhamdulillah. Sensor stations in three directions had been installed near the last leg of Shaheen’s flight. Any one of these three stations could have been in danger had there been any problem with the missile’s path or direction.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Arun_S » 11 Mar 2004 20:08

Sridhar: Surveying the mass fractions of typical solid fueled stages (the last time I got that from www.astronautix.com) and liquid fuelled stage weighing 5 to 20 tonnes, one can see Mass fraction of 0.82 to 0.85 is consistant with general Solid fuelled stages (high structural weight to withstand the high pressure). OTOH liquid fuelled stages typically have higher mass fraction (mostly ranging from 0.87 to 0.92)

Thus I belive TSP/N-Korean missile have a MF higher than just 0.85 and more in the range of 0.88. This assumes they are in the initial learning curve and do not have access to costly light weight fuel container manufacturing tech.

Of course in absence of published data, these are only educated estimates.

Just my 2 rupees.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 21:23

Arun_S:

Thanks. I was also looking at the default configuration for the M-11 in your rocket simulator. The mass fraction for this missile was assumed to be 70% and the range achieved was close to the claimed range of 300kms for a 500kg payload.

Does it mean that
a. the Ghaznavi/M-11 has a particularly bad mass fraction
b. the claimed range is an understatement
c. some other explanation

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sridhar » 11 Mar 2004 21:26

Sunil:

The Pakistanidefence page you have linked to does not quote the original source of the article. However, it makes the first official reference I have seen for a launch from Somniani (though the article was from much before the test and only talked of the <I>plab</I> to launch from Somniani). But if it was a launch from Somniani, I would be interested in repeating a question you asked earlier in the thread. Which Pakistani/Saudi vessels are capable of going out 2000kms at sea and setting up the necessary instrumentation for the test.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Umrao » 11 Mar 2004 21:31


SaiK
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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby SaiK » 11 Mar 2004 21:58

Any numbers yet? How many shaheen-2s does prolifistan has now?


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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Arun_S » 12 Mar 2004 01:24

Originally posted by Sridhar:
Arun_S:

Thanks. I was also looking at the default configuration for the M-11 in your rocket simulator. The mass fraction for this missile was assumed to be 70% and the range achieved was close to the claimed range of 300kms for a 500kg payload.

Does it mean that
a. the Ghaznavi/M-11 has a particularly bad mass fraction
b. the claimed range is an understatement
c. some other explanation
Smaller weight missiles have poor MF. Also I I think their range is understated.

Using the ROCKSIM I do reverse estimation of what MF will yield the stated range. That allows me to then estimate if the MF is reasonable for similar class of rockets or there is an attempt to fudge the range OR there might be serious technical problem with the manufacturer (in the fuel, engine {Read ISP} or mechanical construction).

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Sunil » 12 Mar 2004 03:03

Courtesy Lexis Nexis.

Flight International
April 16, 1997

HEADLINE: Saudi Arabia talks to Russia and China about new missile

BODY: Saudi Arabia has approached China and Russia for a possible replacement for its ageing Chinese-made CSS-2 surface-to-surface missiles (SSMs), raising fears in Washington that the move could undermine Western non- proliferation efforts. The Saudi defence minister, Prince Khalid bin Sultan, has held talks on the subject in both Moscow and Beijing in recent months, with Riyadh fearing that its existing liquid-fuelled missiles may no longer be reliable.
It was Prince Khalid who negotiated the original $ 3.5 billion deal for the CSS-2s - codenamed East Wind - which were supplied in late 1987 after Washington refused to supply shorter-range Lance missiles and McDonnell Douglas F-15E strike fighters, under pressure from Israel.
Saudi Arabia is believed to have between 30 and 40 of the Chinese missiles, which have a range of up to 3,100km (1,700nm). Based at Al Sulayyil, 500km south of Riyadh, and at Al Leel, 100km south of Riyadh, the CSS-2 missiles are maintained by around 300 Chinese technicians.
The US Government, worried that the latest Saudi Arabian approaches might undermine the Missile Technology Control Regime - to which Saudi Arabia is not a party - has reportedly expressed its concern to Riyadh. The Middle Eastern kingdom is apparently ignoring the US approaches, pointing out that Washington continues to assist Israeli rocket projects.

Flight International June 6, 1990

LENGTH: 385 words
HEADLINE: Saudi CSS-2 missiles now operational

BODY:
Chinese CSS-2 long-range surface-to-surface missiles acquired by Saudi Arabia are now operational and deployed on two separate sites, according to the Israeli intelligence service. Each of the sites has four to six concrete launcher pads and approximately 60 missiles are stored in shelters at each site. Israel says that one CSS-2 site is at Al-Sulaiyil, 500km south of the capital Riyad; the other is at Al-Joffer, 100km south of the capital. The CSS-2s, procured by the Saudis in 1987, have a range of 2,700km (1,450nm). The single-stage missile first entered operational service in China in 1971 and was designed to carry nuclear warheads. Israel says that the missiles supplied to Saudi Arabia are equipped with conventional warheads. Israeli intelligence says that Pakistan played a major role in the negotiations that ended in the Chinese-Saudi CSS-2 deal. While the procurement of the CSS-2s is not clearly understood in the context of the Saudi geopolitical situation, say the Israelis, it is clear that the Saudis are making a special effort to achieve a strategic capability. The Royal Saudi Air Force operates two squadrons of Panavia Tornado IDSs and one squadron of Tornado ADVs. The 72 Tornados were included in the Al-Yamama 1 deal signed with Britain in 1985. In 1988 the Saudis signed a Memorandum of of Understanding (MoU) with Britain for the purchase of 60 additional Tornados. The Al-Yamama 2 MoU also includes 60 Hawk 200 single-seat fighters and 88 Black Hawk helicopters manufactured by Westland. A deal for the latter has yet to be signed. Parallel to signing the Al-Yamama 2 MoU with the UK, the Saudis asked the USA to sell them McDonnell Douglas F-15Es and F-18s. Neither type is included in the list of US-made weapon systems that the USA plans to sell to its allies next year, and Israeli intelligence believes that the 'double source' approach may stem either from rivalry between different factions in the Saudi Royal family or from a Saudi intention to put pressure on a US Congress that in the past has acted against large-scale arms deals with Riyad. 'We doubt very much whether the Saudis really intend to buy all the aircraft under negotiation. they simply don't have the human and technical infrastructure to operate such numbers of aircraft', they say.

Defense & Foreign Affairs' Strategic Policy
October, 2003

SECTION: NUCLEAR STRATEGY; Pg. 4
LENGTH: 2581 words
HEADLINE: A New Nuclear Age; Pakistan's Accord to Place Nuclear Weapons and Long-Range Missiles in Saudi Arabia Places European and Indian Targets Within Reach
BYLINE: By Yossef Bodansky and Gregory R. Copley

PAKISTAN HAS REACHED A secret but definitive agreement to station nuclear weapons on Saudi soil, fitted to a new generation of Chinese (PRC)-supplied long-range (4,000 to 5,000km) ballistic missiles which would be under Pakistani command, but clearly with some form of joint Saudi-Pakistani command and control.

The new systems would be able to reach European and Indian targets, increasing Saudi political influence in Europe and giving Pakistan the strategic depth it needs to have a second-strike capability against Indian nuclear capabilities. This radically changes the balance of power in South Asia.

Highly-reliable Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily sources in Islamabad and Riyadh reported on October 21, 2003, that Saudi Arabia's effective ruler, Crown Prince and Deputy Prime Minister 'Abdallah bin 'Abd al-'Aziz al Sa'ud, reached the agreement with Pakistan Pres. Pervez Musharraf and Pakistani Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Jamali during the visit of the Saudi delegation to Pakistan October 18-20, 2003. The agreement is the culmination of a long and sustained series of Saudi requests to Pakistan. A significant, unreported one-on-one meeting between Pres. Musharraf and Crown Prince 'Abdallah in Kuala Lumpur, at the Organization for Islamic Conference (OIC) on October 15, 2003, was also significant in the process.

It was clearly the fact that the Saudi basing would give Pakistan the capability to credibly deter an Indian nuclear or conventional attack on Pakistan which was the decisive element for the Pakistani leadership. Pakistan's domestically-based nuclear capability is insufficient to deter the threat even of an overwhelming Indian military thrust into the country. However, the basing of an IRBM capability, with nuclear weapons, in Saudi Arabia, adds a complex second-strike capability to Pakistan's deterrence and bargaining power with India.

Pakistani Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Jamali arrived in Tehran on October 21, 2003, for a three-day visit, ostensibly about trade, but the Pakistani Government wished to use the visit to explain the Saudi-Pakistani deal with Iranian officials, in order to ensure that Iran did not see the new arrangement as a threat to Iran. Iran is conscious of the fact that the 1987 Saudi CSS-2 acquisition was specifically designed to deter Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia.

It was understood that, under the Saudi-Pakistani pact, the nuclear weapons deployed to Saudi Arabia would remain as Pakistani systems, and the new series of ballistic missiles -- which would replace the existing Saudi CSS-2 missiles (2,800km+ range), provided by the PRC and based on the DF-3A -- would be paid-for by Saudi Arabia while being marked as Pakistani systems. The new systems would have a range of at least 4,000km and possibly 5,000km.

Saudi Arabia acquired its CSS-2s in 1987, principally to counter potential threats from Iran. The Saudi systems, which were obsolescent even then, were fitted with conventional warheads, although it was believed that Saudi Arabia had developed chemical and/or biological warhead capabilities for the missiles. The Royal Saudi Air Force (Al Quwwat al Jawwiya al Malakiya as Sa'udiya) operates a total of 50 CSS-2 IRBMs, in two squadrons; one at al-Joffer, the other at Sulayel (the principal missile base). The CSS-2 is a road-transportable, liquid-fueled IRBM, and can be launched from either permanent launch pads or from portable launch stands, although the RSAF approach appears to be to base the systems at fixed sites.

It was understood that the new systems would replace the CSS-2s at al-Joffer and Sulayel. Ideally, according to the sources, the new systems would be solid-fuel missiles, although it was possible that a derivative of the DF-4 liquid-fueled system (4,750km range) could be obtained, surplus from PRC stocks as an interim measure. The DF-4 operates from fixed bases. No specific timetable was put on the proposed new deployment of Pakistani strategic systems in Saudi Arabia, but a DF-4 acquisition option could make the plan operational within a very short timeframe.

In about February 2002, Saudi workers began a major expansion program at Sulayel. By early March 2002, there were significant numbers of new buildings and fortified storage facilities. New facilities were also built at the nearby King Khalid Military City, to support the Sulayel expansion. New launch pads were created and, significantly, new fortified storage facilities were built for missiles which would be longer than the CSS-2s currently in service. Two underground facilities were also noted.

The implication of the Saudi-Pakistani deal is that it (a) gives Saudi Arabia more credibility and leverage in dealing with European states and the US; and (b) makes Saudi Arabia now a part of the threat matrix for India.

It was no coincidence that, during the three-day Saudi visit to Pakistan, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Sa'ud al-Faisal bin Abd al-Aziz Al-Sa'ud said in Islamabad on October 19, 2003, that Indian-Israel military co-operation was a "worrying element" which could unleash instability and an arms race in the region. Speaking at a joint news conference with Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri, he addressed the recently-concluded defense supply agreement in Delhi among India, Israel and Russia, Prince Sa'ud said: "Indeed what we are hearing of this cooperation (Indo-Israel deal) is that it is aimed not at the good of the region, but to inflame the region, to further add to the arms race in the region." In the same context, he recalled how some Israeli think tanks demonstrated "similar sinister designs" in the Middle East concerning the "security of Israel". He observed: "It is a country of four-million or so people that believes its security extends from the Indus River to the Atlantic Ocean."

THE SAUDI mission to Islamabad -- the first at this level since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the US -- demonstrated the extent of concern which the Saudi leadership felt about the India-Israel strategic relations which had also blossomed since 2001.

The Saudi Crown Prince held talks with Gen. Musharraf and Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Jamali, and Pakistani official sources said that the visit was as a result of an invitation delivered to the Crown Prince recently by Pres. Musharraf's special envoy. However, Saudi sources said that the visit was as much a result of Saudi wishes as Pakistani. The visit also resulted in a complete harmony of expressed views on all common foreign policy issues -- including whether Pakistan should, or should not, supply peace-keepers to Iraq [the consensus was to wait for an Iraqi invitation] -- and a statement that Saudi economic aid to Pakistan would increase from $ 65-million to $ 100-million a year "as a token of its appreciation for Pakistan's impressive economic performance over the last four years".

Crown Prince 'Abdullah on October 19, 2003, visited an exhibition of defense equipment in Islamabad, and was accompanied by the Pakistani President and Prime Minister. The extensive display and demonstrations were not, according to Pakistani sources, just for show. There was a direct interest by Saudi Arabia in Pakistani-built systems.

Significantly, however, there were now routine cooperative exercises underway between RSAF and Pakistan Air Force (PAF) units in joint asset protection -- air defense -- deployments. These, too, were not "routine", and were, according to sources, aimed at developing joint capabilities to defend the proposed new strategic missile facilities in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi-Pakistani nuclear weapons planning and cooperation has been underway for some years, but it had always been felt that Pakistani officials were resisting pressure from Riyadh to provide actual weapons to Saudi Arabia. [Even now, the formula addresses Saudi needs, but keeps the weapons in Pakistani hands, at least nominally and for some purposes.] However, the trail of events makes it clear that Saudi Arabia had consistently worked toward the acquisition of a nuclear capability, provided by Pakistan.

On May 6-7, 1999, then-Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif escorted Saudi Minister of Defense & Aviation Prince Sultan bin 'Abd al-Aziz al-Saud on a visit to Pakistani nuclear research facilities and the manufacturing facilities for the Ghauri liquid-fueled strategic ballistic missile (a derivative of the DPRK NoDong-1) in Kahuta. This was the first and only visit by a foreign dignitary to the facilities, and only the third by a Pakistani head-of-government. The host was Dr Abdul Qadir Khan, at that time regarded as the "father" of the Pakistani nuclear capability. Prince Sultan at this time was known to have engaged in what were described by sources as "very substantive" discussions with Pakistani officials for the acquisition of both nuclear weapons and Ghauri MRBMs.

The Ghauri, with a range of only some 2,600km, was later to be by-passed, partly because of the range question; partly because it was liquid-fueled and not solid-fueled; and partly because of problems with the NoDong-1s being faced by its originator, the DPRK. Pakistani sources have said, however, that the Ghauri derivatives were likely to resume and were still viable.

Prince Sultan's visit to Pakistan was followed by a visit to Saudi Arabia in mid-September 2000 by a Pakistani strategic policy and nuclear delegation led by Dr Abdul Qadir Khan, Dr Ijaz Shafi Ghilani and Dr M. Younus But. They were guests of Prince Sultan, and at a speech on about September 20, 2000, Dr Abdul Qadir Khan thanked the Saudi Government for contributing to the success of the Pakistani nuclear weapons tests on May 28, 1998. That indicated a Saudi involvement in the Pakistani nuclear weapons program much earlier than Pakistani officials have generally acknowledged. [Saudi financial support for Pakistani nuclear research was, however, assumed even during the Zia ul-Haq era of the 1980s, but without any known understanding of a direct quid pro quo for Saudi Arabia.]

On October 15, 2003, Pres. Musharraf met in Kuala Lumpur with Crown Prince 'Abdallah at the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC). The meeting was not reported, and was a one-on-one affair. That night, Pres. Musharraf met with a number of Pakistani officials and Pakistani expatriates, including a number of scientists who had come especially to Kuala Lumpur from China. One Defense & Foreign Affairs source made notes of Pres. Musharraf's remarks, which were not reported, and which were deemed to be private.

The source, who made the notes available to Defense & Foreign Affairs, noted that the President said that he was encouraged and optimistic and that Pakistan was about to spread its wings on the world stage. He said that the world was looking for a role for Pakistan, and that it could contribute something which nobody else could. He said that Pakistan was at a crossroads and that it could decide whether it would accept this challenge for the ummah (Islamic world) and Islam.

GRAPHIC: Map, no caption
LOAD-DATE: November 21, 2003

See this link. Guess who was in I'bad yesterday

http://paknews.com/images/picofday/2004/03/1010-mar2004-pic1.jpg

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby SaiK » 12 Mar 2004 03:59

going back to the distance map,

From GWD (25°14'00"N 62°19'46"E) To TLV (32°00'34"N 34°52'37"E) Distance : 2779 km

which is the shaheen-2 max range. whatever may be the payload, israel has a concern here.

and.. by the above post, if saudis get these, israel is pretty much covered.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby Philip » 12 Mar 2004 05:27

Well,its better late than never--the slow awakening of the real threat from the Saudi-Pak-Chinese nexus.Chinese long range missiles stationed in Saudi Arabia,with Chinese designed pak built nuclear warheads under joint Saudi-Pak control aimed at India as well as other juicy targets.

This perfidy by Pak,allowed by the US to go unpunished for decades,is our equivalent to the Cuban missile crisis.There are differences though.Saudi Arabia is some distance away from India unlike the proximity of Cuba to the US.However,the danger of Pak's "Saudi second strike" capability remains as deadly as ever.Apart from idnai,Israel is the other easily recognised target of the missiles.Israel has a huge secret nuclear capability ,which the Saudis wanted to counter.Israel however lacks strategic depth and even a single nuclear weapon detonated over Israeli territory would be unimaginably catastrophic.Moreover,Saddam exploited Israel's weaknesses during Gulf War 1,with his conventional Scud missile attacks.This explains Israel's decision to equip its german built subs with a nuclear tipped cruise missile capability,subs that could operate in the IOR,especially in the Arabian Sea to give the Israelis a secure second strike capability.Cooperation with India on this would be beneficial to both nations as the threat comes from the same source.For India,the time is past when we must take into our defence planning the threat both nuclear and conventioanl from Saudi Arabia and accelerate our own submerged survivable second strike capability ideally through nuclear powered subs.In the interim,conventioanl powered subs could also play a role.Pak's actions also give us a very good reason to develop and test a true ICBM.We nee a long range ICBM aboard Indian subs in the future,subs that can operate over 10,000km from Chinese shores.This will be the best way to counter the threat posed by the Chinese.They will be unable to track and counter a significant number of missile carrying Indian subs in Asia-Pacific waters.

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Re: Shaheen 2 - proliferation unlimited?

Postby NRao » 12 Mar 2004 07:08

This China-Pakistan-KSA is Chicom's way of diluting Indian response. (KSA may have other intensions, India cannot be concerned about that. What India needs to consider is plain and simple: can those missiles based in KSA reach India? Also, I do not place much value if KSA words about Indo-Israeli relations, which IMHO is to appease TSP and get missiles for KSA.) In a worst case scenario, India will have to assume that all three locations need to be addressed.

It brings me back to my earlier thesis: India needs to defang TSP.

However, with a India centric-capable missile in KSA it does bring other players. BUT, India can never assume their intentions or actions in a wrost case scenario. Thus (IMHO) no use for India to sit quitely assuming that Israel or Japan or Taiwan or whoever, will do something that will indirectly help India. If at all India should take the lead - solely - and "contribute" to a coordinated defanging process of TSP.

Added latter:

I also have to wonder if all this is getting out-of-hand for Uncle.


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