India Nuclear News and Discussion - June 26-2007

NRao
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Postby NRao » 07 Jul 2007 20:36

ShauryaT,

Two going on one. :). Kya Karen, budhapa aa raha hai - second childhood.

However, Gerard's post is very interesting (and timely?). Is MMS ending his flirting with Bush? His

"India is a responsible member of the international community and we have a stake in the evolution of a stable and rule-based international system"


is a page right out of AKs talk. So is

"As a possessor of advanced technologies, we will continue to maintain the highest standards of non-proliferation controls


But, what seems to take the cake is

"the reality is that we live in a world of unequal power relations. We live in an uncertain international security environment."


A couple of observations here: this is a shot across the bow of you know who (unequal power relation), and, interestingly, both Condi and MMS have used "we" that could be interpreted in two ways. IF the "we" means India (which is what I think it means) then it is a clear indicator that India needs to control her own strategic interests - that the US better keep out of that loop. I suspect this is a reply to Condi's "we" (passed legislature, etc) - thus the Hyde Act "you" passed is of no importance to "us".

Fellas, the US has lost a great chance IMHO. This is a loss they will feel in a few decades - say by 2040 or so.

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Postby Singha » 07 Jul 2007 21:45

Agni program was leaked to have been capped a month or two ago.

Todays announcement on A4 indicates that talks have broken down and India
is pushing the escalation ladder to next rung.....a clear warning to Unkil and the EU poodles

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Postby NRao » 07 Jul 2007 22:02

IF this 'civilian' nuclear deal was supposed to be the 'corner stone' of an everlasting partnership, then why leaks and escalations, etc? Do these events expose not only the designs of the Bush admin, but the game plan of MMS too? I mean both had to subscribe to the 'partnership' concept, and this escalation seems to indicate that both sides were very much aware that the 'partnership' was a mirage at best that they were dealing with.

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A IV a very clear signal

Postby vnadendla » 07 Jul 2007 22:47

Time to discuss the repercussions of the failed nucler deal
    Encouragement to Paki terrorism - Can they really with the blowback problem?
    Economic strffling - Can they with their demographic time bomb?
    Nuclear Striffling - Any different from now?

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Postby Sanjay M » 07 Jul 2007 23:06

Nah, Russia is more firm and more independent than ever. They are no longer in the weak state that Yeltsin had them in. So they won't be knuckling under to US hackles on Indo-Russian nuclear cooperation like they did in the past. Yeltsin was such a crook, worse than Sonia Gandhi.

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Postby pradeepe » 08 Jul 2007 02:42

Deleted by self.

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Postby Raja Ram » 08 Jul 2007 10:14

NRao

Regarding Japan Model - I had written in an earlier comment on this forum that one of the possible visions for the future place of India is to settle for what I called the Japan model - being an economic power of significance and being invited to share the responsibilities and the economic dominance as part of the western alliance. However, no role for Japan as a military power or a political power. Not even in the region. In return there will be full protection under western terms for safeguarding their economic supremacy.

There is also a cultural angle. Japan today has had a complete emasculation of their cultural heritage. The average westernised Japanese today will have a strong dislike of their heritage and in fact have a strong feeling of that heritage being the cause of their downfall. They will also have a strong feeling of supremacy associated with western civilization and values - reflected by a strong yearning for western style in their music, dress, cultural values, family structures etc.

In my view National strength and consequently National interests and security concerns are multi dimensional. It includes, economic strength, political clout, military capability, cultural confidence, social harmony and civilizational identity. All these have to be in the right proportion and balance. The sum total of this is the National Power.

It is my contention that successive GOI have had such a composite view of where to go. They may have erred in not getting the right proportional balance of all elements and hence may have come up short in the past. Sometimes it was also a matter of priorities as resources were limited. But the vision was always to see India as emerge as a balanced and independent wold power.

For the first time, GOI leadership seems to have a different view for the vision which is closer to the Japanese model. That the ruling party is dominated by a western origin person who has never been comfortable with India (the only thing keeping is the desire to keep the family in dominating position) and led by a PM who is a western Fabian socialist school economist proud of his Oxford links could be a reason for settling for a Japanese model. At the least it could be a popular suspicion. At most it could be true! Hope not.

Pranab and Jaishankar are establishment voices. If I have read this correctly, it is the section of the PMO that wants to do the deal at any cost it just might be that Pranab and Jaishankar are heading the articulation of the establishment voices other than the scientific community. Bear in mind the consensus of all these years were built on a solid understanding and interface between all stakeholders - Chengappa's book gives a good understanding of it.

President's articulation to the EU parliament, in Greece, his reference to the sanctions and the crude tech denials post Agni launch, his appeal to forge a common developmental politics agenda are a reflection of the composite vision and the prevailing national consensus on it. ABV's comments, his recent visit to Kalam and public airing of their misgivings to some of the GOI actions are reflections that the debate is not over.

The PM's public pulling up of DRDO, his comments on the unequal power structure are all examples that he is trying to assure his detractors that he has not lost sight of that composite vision. However, his equal emphasis of economic benefits and the need for energy to fuel growth is a reflection that he is willing to compromise on the composite vision. I hope that this is a wrong assessment.

I have transgressed and diverted the discussion from the topic of the thread enough in this ramble. So let me stop.

As usual take it for what it is worth.

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Postby Manne » 08 Jul 2007 11:17

Robinder Sachdev wrote:In this last lap of efforts, hopefully we shall not make the mistake made while lobbying for the Hyde Act – where many of us missed the attention required to the details, mostly because we did not have enough resources to analyse the fine print sufficiently.


There is very little evidence to suggest that GoI missed the details. In fact, right after the deal GoI made a quiet statement that there were aspects of HHA that were not entirely in line with J18. There is, in fact, ample evidence that BARC/NPC scientists & engineers noted all the right things and made all the right noises to alert GoI. So, I am not sure GoI missed this. And it is more important whether GoI missed it because NRIs missing/capturing the details is immaterial beyond a particular goal. The goal was to initiate a crack in US policies. IIRC, kgoan (where is he these days???) had a post that talked about getting closer to the endgame through salami slicing. That post is worthy of republishing now.

ramdas wrote:The whole sequence of events looks very suspicious... the very fact that negotiations over this deal are continuing in spite of its agenda being very clearly revealed is very suspicious. Who and what are the forces that continue tomake an attempt to sell out ?


A few days back I had asked the question whether anyone thought India had succeeded in exposing US agenda. The response was quite depressing. I submit that it is because the agenda has been exposed - and in a manner that leaves very little room for obfuscation - that the talk are proceeding. US negotiators might have thought they were smart (there was some mention of arrogance in that context on BR), now they will need to be really smart. It is not India that has painted herself into a corner. And this despite being the apparent 'needy' party in the deal.

I think despite the first goof-up (trying to push over DAE/AEC) GoI deserves some appreciation. I am actually amazed by the precision and level of diplomacy in action under MMS's direction. Movement of Pranab is also wonderfully timed. Opposition is pressing all the right buttons and asking the right questions. You see, it is not just the US that can point to internal acts/politics and shrug. Two can play the game.

The plot thickens.

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Postby Pulikeshi » 08 Jul 2007 11:32

Raja Ram wrote:Regarding Japan Model - I had written in an earlier comment on this forum that one of the possible visions for the future place of India is to settle for what I called the Japan model…


Do you think given India’s demographics (greater numbers less than 25 yrs of age), the “Japan Modelâ€

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Postby NRao » 08 Jul 2007 17:38

PS: If this belongs in the India-Interest thread you can answer me there


Done.

Manne,

There is very little evidence to suggest that GoI missed the details.


That is what I had speculated based on conversations with NRIs who were very, very involved with this deal. So, IF you have any evidence I would be very interested.

In fact, right after the deal GoI made a quiet statement that there were aspects of HHA that were not entirely in line with J18. There is, in fact, ample evidence that BARC/NPC scientists & engineers noted all the right things and made all the right noises to alert GoI. So, I am not sure GoI missed this.


Missed = OK. We make mistakes.

Did NOT miss = sellout? You seem to make a very strong case (Scicom told them, etc) that the GoI did not miss!!!

And it is more important whether GoI missed it because NRIs missing/capturing the details is immaterial beyond a particular goal.


From a NRI pOV it is extremely relevant. They spent a ton of political capital to push this deal thru. Now, as you imply, IF they had got to know that GoI was only trying to crack whatever, then perhaps a ton of them would have sat on the side lines.

I know for a fact that the few that I know regret their backing of this deal. having said that, this may not be the view of ALL NRIs - I will grant you that.

The goal was to initiate a crack in US policies. IIRC, kgoan (where is he these days???) had a post that talked about getting closer to the endgame through salami slicing. That post is worthy of republishing now.


Three items of interest:
* To crack, you have to position yourself - at the end - in a greater position of strength than when you started. I doubt that the Hyde Act achieved that. IF at all India is in a worse position today than on J18. So, what did India expose? Also, what was there to expose that the world did not know? (May I add, that the US loves logic - only so that they can get to know your cards. That is it. On the flip side, if they are logical they will no longer be a "power" - they cannot be one.)
* Has the US ever understood logic? No power (check out history) follows logic (Kalamji JUST stressed this a month or so ago - strength understands strength). And, the US demonstrated that (BOTH lack of logic AND strength) by passing the Hyde Act. And, to enforce their view, Condi is on a relentless march, even in her very few speeches
* I would be most interested in the post you mention (end game). May be I am missing something

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Postby JE Menon » 08 Jul 2007 18:03

>>From a NRI pOV it is extremely relevant. They spent a ton of political capital to push this deal thru.

Maybe so, but the NRI point of view is not very relevant amidst GOI, beyond what they can deliver when needed. This must be clear. In my limited understanding of the system, GoI will not be beholden in any strategic sense.

If NRIs wanted to help, then they were welcome.

Their political capital is not more important than specific Indian interests.

To those who felt that their political capital was expended unwisely, I'm sure the GOI will suggest that next time they should desist from helping.

If NRIs decide to support a certain course, then do it with the full knowledge that the outcome may not be exactly as expected - either because these NRIs were poorly informed or were deliberately kept so.

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Postby JE Menon » 08 Jul 2007 18:10

The idea that GoI missed the detail is frankly quite ludicrous.

There is a possibility that some of the nuances, some of the implications, may be overlooked, but neither the woods nor the trees will be missed. It is not like MMS, Sonia and her kids are sitting and going through the deal to ensure it is in line with the country's interests. There are enough well briefed and, more importantly, career-minded, people who look into these things with the full knowedge that any oversight will mean their own options will be limited in future....

Meanwhile, it turns out that Jaishankar is not a traitor after all...but wait another week or so, he may yet turn out to be one...

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Postby ShibaPJ » 08 Jul 2007 18:30

Surprised, this piece from Bhadrakumar has not been posted so far. Q to gurus, how realistically the US-Ru agrement has an impact on J18 :?: After all, J18 and GNEP have both been public knowledge for quite some time and both are independent (unless it is similar to the cr@p about HA/ legislation passed blah blah).

Goal post shifts for Indo-US nuclear deal

An extraordinary thing about superpower relations in the Cold War era was that when it suited the mutual interests of the United States and the Soviet Union, they just went ahead and cooperated.

They couldn't care less whether bystanders and onlookers who depended on the strategic space provided by superpower rivalry, might suffer collateral damage
.

An area where both Washington and Moscow [Images] traditionally showed great alacrity to cooperate was in ensuring that the exclusivity of the nuclear club, out of which flowed in large measures their superpower stardom, was never significantly dented.

The Cold War era has gone. Some in Delhi would even say we are seeing the end of history. But, old habits seem to die hard in the capitals of the two superpowers.

Buried in the heap of the 'lobster summit' between US President George W Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin [Images], which took place last weekend in the Bush family home in Kennebunkport, Maine, is a document that harks back to the traditional spirit of Russian-American cooperation in the field of nuclear non-proliferation.

Amidst the current deepening chill in the US-Russian relations, the two countries have just signed an '1-2-3' agreement that opens up huge vistas of cooperation between the two countries in the field of civilian nuclear energy.

Bush and Putin also issued a joint declaration spelling out the parameters of their future cooperation. Senior diplomats from the two sides have since fleshed out in a joint briefing in Washington, DC, the significance of this major development in the sphere of nuclear energy and nuclear non-proliferation.

Commenting on the development, highly respected authority on Russia [Images], former US ambassador James Collins said, 'We now have opened the opportunity for our whole civilian nuclear communities in both countries to work together� it looks like we are really taking a major step ahead in the area of civilian nuclear cooperation.'

Collins added, 'And, here is the context: there is going to come a large expansion of nuclear power generation, globally. If we don't have a new international framework for that, we're all going to have problems with proliferation, how do we manage the spent nuclear fuel, etc.'

In essence, Washington and Moscow have entered into an unprecedented format of cooperation whereby they will supply nuclear power reactors; will ensure 'reliable access to nuclear fuel and fuel services for the lifetime of reactors'; and even arrange the necessary funding packages for any country that may view nuclear power as a means of economic development.

Of course, the spent fuel will have to be sent back to certain designated 'international nuclear fuel cycle centres', which will be the sole authority for the management of all spent fuel and for providing 'nuclear fuel cycle services', under strict IAEA safeguards.

According to Ambassador Robert Joseph, US special envoy for nuclear non-proliferation, this format of US-Russia cooperation targets the anticipated business in nuclear energy production 'not just in countries like India and China but a wide range potentially of other countries' (emphasis added).

He openly admitted that the main thrust of the format lies in stopping the spread of sensitive fuel cycle technologies, assisting the management of spent fuel, and to make it possible for countries to 'acquire power reactors without the need to pursue indigenous enrichment and reprocessing'.

At a joint briefing with Ambassador Joseph, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak explained, 'The idea behind this declaration of the two presidents was to give a good answer to those who criticise the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the non-proliferation regime, for something allegedly discriminatory[/b\ And Russia and the United States have decided to put their heads together.'

Jospeh concurred, saying, this as an instance of the 'ability of the US and Russia to work together when their interests intersect.'

And, what are those "interests"?

Plainly speaking, the [b]US and Russia are ganging up to form a cartel, which would monopolise the supply of nuclear power plants and fuel and the reprocessing of spent fuel
.

Washington is also making a concession to Russia in so far as unlike in the US, Russian law allows the dirty job of reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel from foreign countries to be undertaken by Russia on a commercial basis.

Evidently, considering the accelerating worldwide growth prospects for nuclear energy, Russia is anticipating big business opportunities in undertaking the management of spent fuel.

Putin, in fact, has ordered a US$ 60 billion programme for revamping his own nuclear industry. In immediate terms, Russia is anticipating that Washington would allow the spent fuel from Taiwan and South Korea to be reprocessed in Russia.

Where does all this leave India?

Clearly, India finds itself in an awkward spot. The ground has again shifted beneath its feet in the negotiations over the nuclear deal with the US.

It is unclear if the United Progressive Alliance government has been taken by surprise. The spin-doctors in Delhi must be scurrying for cover. It is pretty much impossible anymore to obfuscate the plain truth that as far as Washington is concerned, the Indo-US nuclear deal is about nuclear non-proliferation.

Whatever ground the UPA government's negotiators held until last week in seeking the rights to reprocess spent fuel and in gaining access to the reprocessing technology, has completely eroded.

As the Americans would say, it is a 'new ball game' now {Why?}. The goal posts are being shifted. The official team hurrying to Washington for talks on July 16 has its hands full.

The Indian negotiators are now running against time. They may put a brave face on it. They may claim they are 'proactive; they are 'creative'.

But, the heart of the matter is that the Indo-US nuclear deal, unless it is closed now � right now � and on American terms, will soon need to be harmonised with the new Russian-American format and the international regime emanating out of it.

Conversely, it becomes extremely difficult for Washington to make any India-specific dispensation. Any such dispensation would seriously affect the credibility of the emergent international regime.

Besides, the Bush administration is getting weaker by the day in influencing an increasingly assertive and recalcitrant Congress � as the fate of the immigration bill shows.

Ambassador Joseph held out a warning: 'I would emphasise that this is not about the rights of countries under the NPT. This is not about changing or taking away rights. This is about encouraging sovereign states to make sovereign choices based on their own interests, financial as well as non-proliferation interests.'

The message is loud and clear: 'Take it, or leave it'. The multi-billion dollar business of nuclear energy is poised to become a single-window operation conducted within a wholesome architecture devoted primarily to nuclear non-proliferation.

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Postby Ananth » 08 Jul 2007 18:34

That thapar guy is a monkey. He does an extreme swing from "DRDO is cr@p" to inserting his own interpretation to MN's press conference. He is a loose cannon, don't know how much harm he is doing by his garbage.

Regarding russkies, don't count on them. They are ever ready to cooperate with unkil as long as price is right. Recently they agree to form a cartel for fuel and reactor supplies. I don't know if the cartel would be expanded or not. If not then serious pressure on them will be from India and China.

http://ia.rediff.com/news/2007/jul/07guest.htm

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Postby Tilak » 08 Jul 2007 18:44

India, Vietnam deepen defence, nuclear ties
Madhur Singh, Hindustan Times
New Delhi, July 06, 2007

India and Vietnam have agreed to raise bilateral relations to the level of a broad-based "strategic partnership" that they believe will better enable them to deal with the evolving economic and security environment in the region.

Their partnership will include greater cooperation in defence matters and use of civilian nuclear technology, in addition to furthering economic ties and cooperation at regional and multilateral forums.

A joint declaration on establishing a strategic partnership was signed by Prime Ministers Manmohan Singh and Nguyen Tan Dung on the last day of the latter’s visit to India on Friday. It commits both sides to improving bilateral relations "in the political, economic, security, defense, cultural, science and technological dimensions", and provides the basis for cooperation in regional and multilateral institutions.

As two countries that share borders with China, India and Vietnam will set up an institutionalised strategic dialogue. While the joint statement provides for the setting up of a joint working group on countering terrorism, an MoU has also been signed between the Department of Atomic Energy and Vietnam’s Ministry of Science and Technology for cooperation in the field of nuclear energy.

New Delhi will train personnel from Vietnam and provide assistance to the India-Vietnam Nuclear Science Centre at Dalat in Vietnam. Both sides will also work on developing technology to process Vietnamese uranium ores.


To further expand economic ties, India will provide additional grants and concessional lines of credit to Vietnam. Given the importance of the primary sector to both countries’ economies, an MoU on cooperation in the field of fisheries and aquaculture, and a work plan for cooperation in agricultural technology, have also been signed.

India will also provide English language training in Vietnam at a centre in Danang, under an MoU aimed at helping Vietnam integrate better within ASEAN by narrowing the language barrier.

In addition, both sides will facilitate greater cultural and educational exchanges. In particular, the Archaeological Survey of India will undertake conservation of the Cham monuments in Vietnam, which are symbols of long-standing cultural relations between the two countries.


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Postby khan » 08 Jul 2007 20:43

Why isn't GOI spending everything it takes to accelerate the Thorium program?

It will be a hell of a lot better to do that then putting up with these shenanigans.

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Postby Rangudu » 08 Jul 2007 20:46

khan wrote:Why isn't GOI spending everything it takes to accelerate the Thorium program?

It will be a hell of a lot better to do that then putting up with these shenanigans.


Good point but consider the ITER as an investment. Many minds are better than one and by putting up the $$, India will have a founder's stake should something of significance result.

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Postby NRao » 08 Jul 2007 20:58

Maybe so, but the NRI point of view is not very relevant amidst GOI, beyond what they can deliver when needed. This must be clear. In my limited understanding of the system, GoI will not be beholden in any strategic sense.

If NRIs wanted to help, then they were welcome.

Their political capital is not more important than specific Indian interests.

To those who felt that their political capital was expended unwisely, I'm sure the GOI will suggest that next time they should desist from helping.


I think there is a misunderstanding here JEM.

No NRI feels that their interests are above those of India - in any shape or form.

If NRIs decide to support a certain course, then do it with the full knowledge that the outcome may not be exactly as expected - either because these NRIs were poorly informed or were deliberately kept so.


IF that is true then it defeats the purpose of a PAC.

The political capital is spent ONLY to ensure the result and it is delivered ONLY after the result is in hand (typically it is raising funds WRT NRIs).

These NRI PACs are solely there to ensure that the outcome is as they want it - no question of expectations. That is politics, right.

IF the end result is not what they want, then they will not spend their political capital - knowing that it will fail (or in some cases they will hedge).

(BTW, I am assuming you are aware of what happens in these cases - as it happened rather openly in the Immigration bill that failed, then political capital kicked in and nearly passed. When it failed for the second time, the political capital was withdrawn. The 'capital' was in the Billions of dollars.)

NRIs were told to back the Hyde Act. No two ways about that. As stated GoI even had a dedicated budget for it. Sen Sahib toured to promote the bill among the NRIs. There is a lot more than that - it serves no purpose to post any more.

However, that is not the point. The point is to flesh out what is open source and see where the events fit into a theory - salami or otherwise. I am open to any and every theory.

It is just MHO that the GoI did not have this in mind. I do not think the check-and-balances in India allow too much manipulation inside or outside the country. And based on Burn's "deliver" and now Condi's "we" passed the legislation, I am inclined to believe that someone/group off people in current GoI gave the green light for the Hyde Act. I am trying to figure out how Sarans disappearance can be explained in other theories. I could be wrong, but then.............

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Postby NRao » 08 Jul 2007 21:05

khan wrote:Why isn't GOI spending everything it takes to accelerate the Thorium program?

It will be a hell of a lot better to do that then putting up with these shenanigans.


They were doing that.

Just that no one expected the econ to kick in and produce the results it is producing today. The energy recs would be much lower if the econ was doing say 2%. So, they never planned for it - they could not.

Moving forward they are - Uranium mining, etc. They also have the funds to walk the talk.

All this will take some time - 5 -10 years.

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Postby svinayak » 08 Jul 2007 21:27

JE Menon wrote:The idea that GoI missed the detail is frankly quite ludicrous.

There is a possibility that some of the nuances, some of the implications, may be overlooked, but neither the woods nor the trees will be missed. It is not like MMS, Sonia and her kids are sitting and going through the deal to ensure it is in line with the country's interests. There are enough well briefed and, more importantly, career-minded, people who look into these things with the full knowedge that any oversight will mean their own options will be limited in future....

Meanwhile, it turns out that Jaishankar is not a traitor after all...but wait another week or so, he may yet turn out to be one...


From this we can conclude that there are lobby inside Indians who want the Hyde Act to be enforced on India. This is what I have been trying to tell. They are hiding under the PAC trying to pretend to help India but really trying to get the US agenda inside and convincing the NRI lobby about it.

Indians think that they can detect any hidden agenda but have never figured out that Uncle has their own people inside the lobby

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Postby svinayak » 08 Jul 2007 21:34

Pulikeshi wrote:
Raja Ram wrote:Regarding Japan Model - I had written in an earlier comment on this forum that one of the possible visions for the future place of India is to settle for what I called the Japan model…


Do you think given India’s demographics (greater numbers less than 25 yrs of age), the “Japan Modelâ€

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Postby pradeepe » 08 Jul 2007 23:24

Have been hearing (only on this board AFAICT) about the role the NRIs played in this whole process. What role did they play? Which lobby and funding for whom? I dont understand what political capital is being talked about (its only money aint it). I can read what the GOI has been doing or opinion pieces on GOI's negotiating path. Unfortunately (for me) I cant see what the NRI lobby has been doing? Can some guru please help. Thanks much.

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Postby nkumar » 09 Jul 2007 00:01

Few questions:

Where does the deal stands now after Sagarika and plans for extending A3 by another 1500 or as someone claimed to 6000 Kms? It is really dead now? If so, why is GOI planning further negotiations?


Can some senior throw some light.

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Postby JE Menon » 09 Jul 2007 00:40

>>These NRI PACs are solely there to ensure that the outcome is as they want it - no question of expectations. That is politics, right.

I'm not sure I misunderstand. Who are the "they" above?

>>IF the end result is not what they want, then they will not spend their political capital - knowing that it will fail (or in some cases they will hedge).

I'm presuming the "they" are the NRIs. In this case, no matter who does the touring, I suspect most non-NRIs will agree that those who do something for India should do so regardless of outcome...in other words don't try to plug in their agendas to those of the GoI.

>>(BTW, I am assuming you are aware of what happens in these cases - as it happened rather openly in the Immigration bill that failed, then political capital kicked in and nearly passed. When it failed for the second time, the political capital was withdrawn. The 'capital' was in the Billions of dollars.)

Nope, your assumption is wrong as now I am totally lost, as I suspect are a few others. Please explain, if it is alright to do so, how these "billions of dollars" were lost, and to whom?

>>NRIs were told to back the Hyde Act. No two ways about that. As stated GoI even had a dedicated budget for it.

Is there any open source on the above, in particular the budget part? I might have missed a link since so many threads have passed on this issue....
Last edited by JE Menon on 09 Jul 2007 00:43, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Sanjay M » 09 Jul 2007 00:40

ShibaPJ wrote:Surprised, this piece from Bhadrakumar has not been posted so far. Q to gurus, how realistically the US-Ru agrement has an impact on J18 :?: After all, J18 and GNEP have both been public knowledge for quite some time and both are independent (unless it is similar to the cr@p about HA/ legislation passed blah blah).

Goal post shifts for Indo-US nuclear deal


In order for Bush to have gained Putin's cooperation in forming this cartel, then Bush would have had to offer Putin considerable incentives/concessions.
Or else Bush was never sincere in wanting the missile defense system in Europe, and was merely concocting it as a card to gain some concession from Putin.

But under current trends, Russia's strength and its bargaining position are improving with each passing day, while American strength and bargaining position are weakening with each passing day.

I think that Bush's main agenda during this latest meeting was to get Putin's cooperation/assent for an upcoming US attack on Iran. That would have been the main agenda item for any non-proliferation discussion between them. Any cartel deal relating to containment of India was likely only a secondary discussion point. I think Bush's main focus is on attacking Iran, and that's the main accommodation he wanted from Putin.

By the time Bush finishes a war with Iran, his political power will be totally exhausted, and Bush will be a spent force. Putin, on the other hand will be stronger than ever.

If the N-deal fails -- and it better, if it's trying to cap us -- then UPA will fall, and India can renew itself with the election of a BJP-led govt. Then we'll be able to deal with the situation in a more steely-eyed way.

On the whole, I don't mind an entente between Bush and Putin, since at least they're both anti-jihadi, and the Atlanticist agenda is then marginalized. If the Atlanticists regain power in the Whitehouse after the next elections, then their main focus will be to destroy US-Russian relations and to renew NATO expansionism as well as support for jihad. This will only antagonize the Russians and drive them back into our arms.
That's fine by me, because we'll still be waiting, and at least Sonia will be gone. We can do a lot more once that empress is ousted, and certainly her kid is no threat at the polls.

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Postby NRao » 09 Jul 2007 00:51

JEM,

I had sent an email to you loooong back (april 15, 2007). Please check that. Will send another when I can.
Last edited by NRao on 09 Jul 2007 02:55, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby sanjaykumar » 09 Jul 2007 00:58

Agni program was leaked to have been capped a month or two ago.

Todays announcement on A4 indicates that talks have broken down and India
is pushing the escalation ladder to next rung.....a clear warning to Unkil and the EU poodles


Solid interpretation. And good to know MMS is made of sterner stuff than insomnia.

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Postby svinayak » 09 Jul 2007 02:18

Sanjay M wrote:I think that Bush's main agenda during this latest meeting was to get Putin's cooperation/assent for an upcoming US attack on Iran. That would have been the main agenda item for any non-proliferation discussion between them.


This would be from Aug 2007 - Dec 2008

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Postby Sanjay M » 09 Jul 2007 03:03

But so it's looking increasingly to me like Bush admin merely came up with the missile defense thing in Poland & Czech Republic purely for the purpose of arm-twisting Russia on Iran.

And here we all were, thinking that Bush really meant to revive Cold War in Europe. I didn't see any commentator anywhere from any journal or news source speculating about the possibility of a fake-out. It seems like everyone was fooled.

But while it's expected that Bush will try to contain Iran, it's quite another thing if he expects to shift goalposts for Indian N-Deal, because there are some wider repercussions there, as we're not puny like Iran.

I'm also wondering if Japan is feeling a little sold out too, given the latest deal-making the Whitehouse has done with NKorea.

Oh well, let Iran get clobbered first, because we really need to see if regime change can be achieved there, to improve our strategic environment.

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Postby Sanjay M » 09 Jul 2007 06:52

Sanjay M wrote:In order for Bush to have gained Putin's cooperation in forming this cartel, then Bush would have had to offer Putin considerable incentives/concessions.


Aha!
Looks like that lobster dinner is proving to have been an expensive one:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/09/world ... osovo.html

US climbdown on Kosovo, eh? Bush knows how to offer up the right concessions to get Putin's ear.

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Postby ShauryaT » 09 Jul 2007 07:42

JE Menon wrote:>>Is there any open source on the above, in particular the budget part? I might have missed a link since so many threads have passed on this issue....
The reference to the budget maybe the lobbying money, GoI spends in the US. Blackwill's firm is one of the recipients. In general, the NRI lobby had voiceferously used their political capital on both sides of the aisle, and lent support to the Hyde act. The cue to do so was most certainly, from the GoI.

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Postby NRao » 09 Jul 2007 08:07

ShauryaT wrote:
JE Menon wrote:>>Is there any open source on the above, in particular the budget part? I might have missed a link since so many threads have passed on this issue....
The reference to the budget maybe the lobbying money, GoI spends in the US. Blackwill's firm is one of the recipients. In general, the NRI lobby had voiceferously used their political capital on both sides of the aisle, and lent support to the Hyde act. The cue to do so was most certainly, from the GoI.


Dedicated budget of millions of dollars - only to support the effort to pass this bill. Amby used it to fly around the country, wine-dine appropriate people, cue came only from GoI, Saran was deeply involved, so was amby. In fact, NRIs had a big bash about April-May - to thank all involved.

There was an article that said somewhat the same - will have to dig it out.

But, now it does not really matter. The fact that DAE, AK (in specific), Kalamji and Scicom were all against it has to indicate something. Saran's disappearence, etc seem to be indicators that there was a rift within the variosu Gov agencies. Burn's urgency to get it signed, NPAs declaring India is greedy, etc and now complete silence are indicators too I feel. Irrespective of what the GoI did/said.

That the GoI did not read the small print is too much no matter what happened - they are expected to read the small print. IF they really did not read, say so and have the Hyde Act re-passed - properly this time around.

Time to move on.

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Postby svinayak » 09 Jul 2007 08:28

NRao wrote:
But, now it does not really matter. The fact that DAE, AK (in specific), Kalamji and Scicom were all against it has to indicate something. Saran's disappearence, etc seem to be indicators that there was a rift within the variosu Gov agencies. Burn's urgency to get it signed, NPAs declaring India is greedy, etc and now complete silence are indicators too I feel. Irrespective of what the GoI did/said.


There is another thing going on. After Nov 7 2006 the house was taken over by the Democrats in US Congress. To make it more in tune with the new reality the new clauses were added in the Hyde Act in Dec 2006. The NPA gained political clout in the new congress. The Nuclear Deal is caught in between Bush and democrat dynamics of US politics.

Then there is another dynamic process regarding India in the US politics which is going on for the last 25 years. The assorted anti-India groups have created powerfull lobby against India. There is a weaker pro-India lobby which has got the support of the business lobby recently. This lobby fights a tug of War with the anti-India lobby being a underdog.

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Postby NRao » 09 Jul 2007 08:46

Acharya wrote:There is another thing going on. After Nov 7 2006 the house was taken over by the Democrats in US Congress. To make it more in tune with the new reality the new clauses were added in the Hyde Act in Dec 2006. The NPA gained political clout in the new congress. The Nuclear Deal is caught in between Bush and democrat dynamics of US politics.


I would be most interested in the before-after (after the Dems took over) of this bill - if you have it or can direct me to some URL.

Then there is another dynamic process regarding India in the US politics which is going on for the last 25 years. The assorted anti-India groups have created powerfull lobby against India. There is a weaker pro-India lobby which has got the support of the business lobby recently. This lobby fights a tug of War with the anti-India lobby being a underdog.


The Israeli lobby was dead against it. They still are. Strange.

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Postby svinayak » 09 Jul 2007 11:11

NRao wrote:
Acharya wrote:There is another thing going on. After Nov 7 2006 the house was taken over by the Democrats in US Congress. To make it more in tune with the new reality the new clauses were added in the Hyde Act in Dec 2006. The NPA gained political clout in the new congress. The Nuclear Deal is caught in between Bush and democrat dynamics of US politics.


I would be most interested in the before-after (after the Dems took over) of this bill - if you have it or can direct me to some URL.


This should be available in the net. The debate between Dem and Reb on the nuke deal was ongoing from March 06 and never stopped. But election changed the equation and put pressure on the Bush Admin.
This significantly changed the content and somebody made a judgement to push it with the amendments so that it will have the clauses for the interested parties.

This could be for the future debate. This whole thing has a long term thinking and geo-political thinking - looking at ME and shape of things to come.

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Postby Prabu » 09 Jul 2007 13:11

http://www.hindu.com/nic/toohottohandle.pdf


The future of civil nuclear power published by oxford research group.

PRABU

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Postby milindc » 09 Jul 2007 21:18

First BJP and now commies... appears as if it is an orchestrated campaign to send message to Uncle.

Left cautions government over nuclear deal

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Postby Mort Walker » 09 Jul 2007 23:15

I just got this in my recent IEEE Spectrum. An article by M.V. Ramana that is titled More Missiles Than Megawatts

The link is from M.V. Ramana's web-site. I don't know what his issue is, but appears to be a self-hating Indian.

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Postby pradeepe » 10 Jul 2007 00:05

Mort Walker wrote:I just got this in my recent IEEE Spectrum. An article by M.V. Ramana that is titled More Missiles Than Megawatts

The link is from M.V. Ramana's web-site. I don't know what his issue is, but appears to be a self-hating Indian.


That he is and has sold out a long time ago.

So onto new lows now, even IEEE is not spared of these shenanigans. What next?


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