India - Nuclear News and Discussion

Mort Walker
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Postby Mort Walker » 22 Jul 2007 10:15

If Daryl Kymball doesn't like this deal, then there is something positive about it. It will be important over the next several weeks to judge the response of the NPAs and various US government officials.

The US has to ratify bilateral treaties in the senate and this is where Dick Cheney comes in to action. As president of the senate, he can influence the schedule for the ratification process at the earliest on the senate agenda. This of course depends on influencing the majority leader of the Senate, Democrat Harry Reid of Nevada (who by the way brought a Hindu priest to invoke a prayer in the senate and we'll see just how genuine he is toward India & Indians). Cheney will also work with Boeing and GE to "persuade" senators to ratify the treaty. If the Hyde Act had to be amended, then it has to go through a lengthy process just to appear on the agenda of the US House of Representatives, which the Republicans have no control or input on the agenda, therefore, it effectively meant the deal would be dead. In order to avoid that, the Indian side understood the constraints of the deal.

Satya_anveshi
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Postby Satya_anveshi » 22 Jul 2007 10:35

Without even going into the merits of the deal...are the following next steps clear?

WHAT NEXT

• Cabinet to clear the agreement, India to talk with IAEA for safeguards agreement
These are two steps. First, CCS must clear the agreement which has two outcomes. Pass / fail. Only if the text is passed, India will go to IAEA. Again, this can, ultimately, have two outcomes. agreement reached / not. What happens if we cannot reach the agreement? Don't they have a option to do a salami on us with our bottom already exposed to public (and even if not, every chowkidar at IAEA will know what he can extract from us thanks to Uncle)

• US to approach Nuclear Suppliers Group seeking exemption for India on same grounds given by Washington
Here too the outcomes are agree / not agree. If not agree, we would have already spent a lot of capital at IAEA and no further forwards steps. Assumption is US and some other key members might rescue by extracting their extra pound of flesh.

Again a salami opportunity against us with members knowing our cards via US.

• With NSG waiver in hand, agreement will be sent to US Congress; vote after 90 legislative days
Here..again...US has clearl advantage. It can turn down even after doing so much circus. If we are to believe that Hyde was polluted at the last moment. one can bet one of his arm, leg, and a ball that the same will repeat.

Basically..US will call all the shots till the very end even after exposing our dhotis and making us run around everywhere like monkeys. Why should the next steps be designed in such a way?

Why not first have Indian and US political consent and approval before doing all the tamasha?

Mort Walker
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Postby Mort Walker » 22 Jul 2007 10:48

Why not first have Indian and US political consent and approval before doing all the tamasha?


Because US political consent is dependent on IAEA and NSG approval. I don't know about India. NSG approval will happen because unkil has convinced others members to go along with it. If its by simple majority, most of the NSG members will go along with it. Only China and some other third-rate countries will object most of the other NSG members will support the exemption for India.

As far as the IAEA goes - quoting from NRAO's post:
On the technical side the game is not over. Kakodkar has always challenged the IAEA to do a better job, and, this is not going to sit very well with the US. IF he has managed to get a template - in the form of 123 - then we can expect him to twist a few arms within the IAEA. Which is what I expect. I think AK is angling to sideline the US and he will succeed.

Mort Walker
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Postby Mort Walker » 22 Jul 2007 10:52

A side note.

Narayanan's meeting with DC only mentioned the 123 Agreement in passing and perhaps he was more concerned about the US providing significant military firepower and intel to Pakistan.

See:
http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/afx/2007/07/20/afx3935242.html

Satya_anveshi
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Postby Satya_anveshi » 22 Jul 2007 11:02

Mort Walker wrote:NSG approval will happen because unkil has convinced others members to go along with it.
All the more reason for US to approve first so India can count on US help in all these. Right? Don't we agree that having Uncle on our side can make matters easy..isn't that the whole point of the our strategic security arrangement blah..blah..blah?

Why should there be a possibility that even after so much circus..it is still left to those nutjobs to have the final say? I am of the opinion that at the time of framing the next steps...our negotiators have either given up and lost interest or they are just dumb to have framed and/or agreed to leave a possibility for such an eventuality.

Shankar
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Postby Shankar » 22 Jul 2007 12:18

A sell out of our nation by those who lead it

What the nuke deal effectively means

-no further nuke tests for sure and that in its turn means a capping of our nuclear weapons programme for perpetuity

- no enriching of uranium beyond 20% -making it use less for all weapons application and even pressurised water reactors for our submarines

- direct monitoring of plutonium production by checking the spent fuels supplied by US they can always determine how much plutonium we are producing from our own uranium and increase in fissile material stockpile

-some reports say this national sell out was instigated by a big industrial house may be the biggest since they have plans for a large number of reactors in private sector sourced from US

This is a multi pont sell out by GOI to US /indian private sector giant/us aero space industry .

The inevitable fall out will MRCA going boeing way souring our strategic relationship with Russia for a long long time

End of our strategic independence for perpetuity . Our stand on Iran dispute is likely o be reversed

End of true energy security -iran india gas pipeline is gone forever


India will become something like austarlia-japan combo mirroring all that us does and says and china will be the true asian leader in a decades time

With this kind of leadership decision -i am ashamed to be a part of the electoral system that breeds such moronic decision makers

menon
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Postby menon » 22 Jul 2007 14:40

Mort Walker wrote:If Daryl Kymball doesn't like this deal, then there is something positive about it. It will be important over the next several weeks to judge the response of the NPAs and various US government officials.

******.


There will be lots of psy ops so that we never will be sure wha happened and how it will affect us. By the time we know, the perpetrators will be long gone.

Shankar
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Postby Shankar » 22 Jul 2007 15:09

Looking at the damn deal in more detail

The termination clause states freezing of all co-operation if india is to test a nuclear weapon and US can exercise the right to return all equipment and fuel

What does this mean in simple language

is if we test just another weapon - us will not only impose sanctions but also ask us to return billions and billions of dollars worth of reactors and its components and the un utilised fuel already paid for and received in indian soil

even simpler explanation

US is telling us do not test another weapon because if we do the cost to the nation will be may be many billions and crippling of national economy very quickly

If we agree we loose our economy just not growth if we donot return there is no doubt us may and will use military power to take out our not just military but civilian nuclear capability too -just like they are doing in korea

By signing this deal we shall be opening our backside to us pressure for perpetuity

I dont understand how such terms can be even discussed let alone agreed to

Much better would have been to sell the country state wise to us multi nationals to get the dollars

And the media hype is shameful - who is making the shameful sell out a matter of national and political achievement of decade

Those of you who criticize me for supporting china and russia please think-would china have ever agreed to such terms .We may call it a dragon or a lizzard whatever but their people including thier leadership love their country

As for reprocessing rights less said the better

It is just an agreement in principle -no specific gurantee that we will be allowed to reprocess the spent fuel even to 20% level. The mandatory 4 yr cool off and only then talk of extraction ,inventory use every aspect of the programme will come under direct us scrutiny and that will naturally include all the plutonium that will be produced in the fast breeder using the plutonium extracted from us spent fuel

If this is not selling of a nation what is ?

menon
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Postby menon » 22 Jul 2007 15:25

deleted
Last edited by menon on 22 Jul 2007 15:36, edited 1 time in total.


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