India - Nuclear News and Discussion

ramdas
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Postby ramdas » 21 Jul 2007 04:59

Getting back to the topic, every news paper is writing it's own way. Except for TOI no one is yet saying the deal is done. Many of them are writing it as "substantial progress"



That is bad enough. How can "substantial progess" happen towards reconciling two absolutely contradictory positions ? Unless one side caves in. Going by the untransparent behaviour of MMS and co. it looks like ours is the side that caved in.

Regarding the current leadership going o n for 10 years, one cant predict. Even a corrupt but non antinational leader like Mulayam Singh Yadav.. or some "third front " element replacing this bunch may be enough to avert total disaster. If not, even nuke nudity is a possibility.

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Postby Victor » 21 Jul 2007 05:05

Folks, we have not heard from or about AK yet. Would he not be yelling from the top of the roof if this was a sellout? I suggest we all control our BP till we hear from him.

From all accounts, I think we have arrived and the US has folded. My reasons:

* They need India on their side and we need them on our side--urgently. This is a strategic imperative and the payoff for both sides is immeasurable. Both sides know this is the last chance for a long time (think decades).

* Our negotiators have stood up to all their smoke, mirrors, threats and bluster and firmly but politely presented a brick wall for them to butt heads with. The Americans know they can't bend us. Period.

* GoI knows full well that they will be kicked out next week if there is even a whiff of sellout of national strategic assets or control. There is no way they can pull a fast one--this has played out in public for too long and too many powerful people know the issues inside out.

* The US knows that FBR tech is not going to fall in their laps and they have the choice of p!ssing us off or having us invite them inside our tent.

* WH sees this clearly and always did. They allowed NPAs to run amok for a while to see if anything can be squeezed out of us (typical American baniya mentality) but when it came time, they took them to the woodshed and explained the facts of life.

Having said that, we are definitely sleeping with a cobra in the room. That should tell everyone a lot about our self-assurance. What we should watch for now IMO is the face-saving exercise. Hopefully the yanks don't pull too much out of us there. Like Mr. Miyagi said, "never take your eyes off the opponent".

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Postby Tanaji » 21 Jul 2007 05:21

You havent heard from AK because he is not allowed to speak. He is in US in a sort of "observatory" capacity. Until he gets back, there wont be a word from him. By that time I think will be too late and the horse will have bolted.

If the deal is so bad I think the SciCom should collectively hold a press conference and threaten mass resignations. A spate of resignations from the head of DAE, BARC and other notable persons in a full press conference with the baying dogs of TV news channels in audience is sure to force a reaction from the Maino camp and MMS.

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Postby John Snow » 21 Jul 2007 05:30

First Sadar was not sardar but was / is still called sardar patel.

The current PM is called Sardar but also first Sardar to be PM sans balls.

I thought once PM he will put SG in her proper place but he is chuaah and will never be singh even though it is built into his name

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Postby nkumar » 21 Jul 2007 05:32

You havent heard from AK because he is not allowed to speak. He is in US in a sort of "observatory" capacity. Until he gets back, there wont be a word from him. By that time I think will be too late and the horse will have bolted.

If the deal is so bad I think the SciCom should collectively hold a press conference and threaten mass resignations. A spate of resignations from the head of DAE, BARC and other notable persons in a full press conference with the baying dogs of TV news channels in audience is sure to force a reaction from the Maino camp and MMS.


I totally agree. Such a action coupled with BJP press conferences will create a total chaos. UPA will be hard hit and they will have to renegotiate or the deal will be dead.

It is getting increasingly difficult to bear this treason. We have such a rotten system in India that we could only manage to get the weakest man as PM of India.

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Postby Gerard » 21 Jul 2007 05:32

And Kalam is still President.. a denunciation from him would be devastating for any government...

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Postby ksmahesh » 21 Jul 2007 05:34

Indian century is lost................once again on negotiating table

It is hopeless. I can see only two alternatives:
1. Accept that India willl never become what it can.
2. Drown the sorrow in a drum of ethanol.

I am finished with democracy. I have been voting in every elections and yet "shit is happening". Those that do not vote must be hanged by balls.

PS: Where are self-proclaimed eternal optimists?

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Postby Muppalla » 21 Jul 2007 05:37

Hope that someone will rise to the occasion

That is the pity of the nation. We are living on the checks and balances. When will we have a jingoistic government? When will the people from jingopura (BR) take over the GOI.

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Postby Rye » 21 Jul 2007 05:46

The deal is still "in the future" ....not that it will stop anyone here on BRF from blowing their gasket and spilling their guts all over the floor.

http://sify.com/news/fullstory.php?id=14496374

Nuclear deal in very near future: US
Saturday, 21 July , 2007, 04:14
Washington: As officials from India and US continued their negotiations to clinch the civil nuclear deal, Washington on Friday expressed confidence that the agreement would become a reality in the "very near future."


The Bush administration said even if there was no announcement about reaching an agreement on the deal, it would not mean that there would not be a deal or no forward movement on that.

Full coverage: Indo-US nuclear deal

"It's clear that both countries have the good will necessary to do this, are willing to work with one another to achieve an agreement, and we're certainly hopeful that we'll get one in the very near future," US State Department deputy spokesman Tom Casey told reporters here.

"In terms of what we'll get from today, we'll see where we are. But certainly I wouldn't read a lack of an announcement of an agreement today as anything indicating that we won't ultimately be able to have a deal and be able to move forward on this," he added.

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Postby UPrabhu » 21 Jul 2007 05:48

What a timing? Now that Dr. Kalam is leaving ..... I hope he makes a statement on the deal before leaving.... don't have any expectation of the incoming RUBBERSTAMP

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Postby ramdas » 21 Jul 2007 06:08

A denunciation of the deal from Dr.Kalam would certainly be devastating - but only temporarily so. The media these days can always divert people's attention elsewhere. Those who are still optimistic about the deal are unable to see matters as they are.

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Postby ramdas » 21 Jul 2007 06:15

MMS being b*llless is not the correct assessment. He is against national interests. Period. Anybody supporting this deal is wittingly or unwittingly against national interests. For the past thousand years, something like this strikes our nation when it is at a point where things can get better . Shiladitya's treachery against Maharana Sangha, The 1761 battle of Panipat, Netaji and Sardar Patel getting marginalized by Nehru, and now this. Maybe we are doomed never to rise collectively as a nation. The disease of too much individualism always permeats our society and this event and its follow up will only serve to advance the agenda of those who want to atomize our society.

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Postby vsudhir » 21 Jul 2007 06:23

It ain't over till its over folks.

Though I'm 99% certain the outcome will be hara-kiri or close to it, I'll wait till that outcome is crystal clear before raising my BP any higher. Its depressing enuf as it stands.

We at BR can still cover this issue as it spins day by day and see what can be salvaged from it and what can derail it.

Is any talk-show national channel covering the downside of the deal? Any talking heads anywhere pointing out what's wrong with it etc??

JMTs etc.

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Postby Muppalla » 21 Jul 2007 06:38

http://telegraphindia.com/1070721/asp/f ... 087923.asp
[color=blue]
...
The deal that will be put up before the CCS and the President will be a “frozen textâ€

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Postby UPrabhu » 21 Jul 2007 06:38

ramdas wrote:A denunciation of the deal from Dr.Kalam would certainly be devastating - but only temporarily so. The media these days can always divert people's attention elsewhere. Those who are still optimistic about the deal are unable to see matters as they are.


But it can always give impetus to the opposition..

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Postby Tilak » 21 Jul 2007 06:39

Sparsh wrote:NRIs are not Indian citizens. They are not expected to have India's interests in mind. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool.


An Indian Citizen who stays abroad for employment/carrying on business or vocation outside India or stays abroad under circumstances indicating an intention for an uncertain duration of stay abroad is a non-resident. (Persons posted in U.N. Organisations and Officials deputed abroad by Central/State Governments and Public Sector undertakings on temporary assignments are also treated as non-residents). Non –Resident foreign citizens of Indian Origin are treated on par with non-resident Indian Citizens (NRIs) for the purpose of certain facilities.

Main categories of NRIs

The following are the main three categories of NRIs:-

(i) Indian citizens who stay abroad for employment or for carrying on a business or Vocation or any other purpose in circumstances indicating an indefinite period of stay abroad.

(ii) Indian citizens working abroad on assignment with foreign government agencies like United Nations Organisation (UNO), including its affiliates, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank etc.

(iii) Officials of Central and State Government and Public Sector undertaking deputed abroad on temporary assignments or posted to their offices, including Indian diplomat missions, abroad.



Meanwhile ..

Markey: India nuclear deal on Iran hinge

Published: July 20, 2007 at 3:05 PM
WASHINGTON, July 20 (UPI) -- U.S. Rep. Edward Markey criticized India's friendliness with Iran and demands on Washington in its talks for a U.S.-India nuclear pact.

The Massachusetts Democrat said Thursday in a statement India is trying to pressure the United States into bending on its anti-proliferation laws.

"India must understand that the legal boundaries established by the Congress for nuclear cooperation cannot be overstepped during negotiations between the two Executives," Markey wrote.

The two countries' leaders have been negotiating the deal since 2005. It would provide India access to U.S. nuclear technology and material, something banned by U.S. law since India has nuclear weapons and hasn't signed key international treaties. The deal would make an exception.

There are two main sticking points: India has contested certain provisions that would hamper what it calls a sovereign right to develop its nuclear weapons program, and the U.S. Congress wants New Delhi to break development ties with Iran.

India wants to increase nuclear energy as a way to meet rising energy demand.

It has maintained a relationship with current Bush arch nemesis Iran, forging ahead on deals that include investing in natural gas supplies.

"India is not only getting chummier with Iran, but it looks like New Delhi is actively courting Tehran," Markey said. "Their growing relationship is making a lot of folks in Congress increasingly skeptical about the long-term viability of this nuclear deal."
Last edited by Tilak on 21 Jul 2007 06:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby ldev » 21 Jul 2007 06:40

Various honorable :roll: members. Instead of driving yourselves into hysterics and crying yourself hoarse and impotently about "sell-out", "traitor", etc. etc. , it may just be educational to go back to the basics which have been discussed threadbare over 20 plus iterations of this thread and remember as to why India began these negotiations - and the negotiations began under the previous NDA government. To educate yourself, please read the link given below:

http://www.dae.gov.in/publ/3rdstage.pdf

It spells out exactly what India lacks - and what it needs - given the plan for the 3 stage process. It also explains what will be reprocessed and consequently the implication as to why reprocessing rights are so important from the Indian standpoint. The discerning reader will be also able to understand how India gets a shortcut in terms of a supply of neutrons (which is what India lacks to fully utilize its abundant thorium resources) via the 123 agreement. The DAE boss I am sure will weigh the quid pro quo in terms of the cost India has pay to get those neutrons immediately vis a vis the painful process of generating them slowly - after all time especially measured in decades has a cost attached to it. Nothing is free in life, everything has a cost. But in the meantime, lets get over these hysterics!!!. :)
Last edited by ldev on 21 Jul 2007 06:50, edited 3 times in total.

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Postby UPrabhu » 21 Jul 2007 06:41

** Deleted **
Last edited by UPrabhu on 21 Jul 2007 06:57, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby John Snow » 21 Jul 2007 06:49

ldev> begining of negotiation might have been under NDA but this agreemnt is one night stand of MMS with Bush.

The current offspring is entirely congress wallahs product unders the ageis of MMS SG and the worst part is the sidelining of SCICOM and deceiving of the parliament and people of India, which even congress under Nehru, IG RG PVN or even the likes Dewa Goda or VP singh dare do.

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Postby ldev » 21 Jul 2007 07:00

John Snow wrote: and the worst part is the sidelining of SCICOM and deceiving of the parliament and people of .


As always a pleasure to see you JS :) All available public information indicates that there was a schism between SCIOM and GOI. But I would hazard that this has since been repaired to some extent. At least the breach between DAE and PMO appears to have been healed. Otherwise AK may not have gone on the trip. The very fact that the wording of the document is taking soooo long is indication enough that if there were shenanigans attempted in the early stages, that they are no longer possible now. That is the only way that DAE would have become part of the process.

The people of India 8) They are happily caught up in their own petty affairs. I dont think the average man on the street is aware of any of the implications of the 123 agreement or for that matter that there is even a 123 agreement being negotiated!!!.

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Postby UPrabhu » 21 Jul 2007 07:10

That does not give MMS SG a free ticket to take People of India on a ride. People of India are represented by Lok Sabha which should oversee the deal.

ldev wrote:
John Snow wrote: and the worst part is the sidelining of SCICOM and deceiving of the parliament and people of .


As always a pleasure to see you JS :) All available public information indicates that there was a schism between SCIOM and GOI. But I would hazard that this has since been repaired to some extent. At least the breach between DAE and PMO appears to have been healed. Otherwise AK may not have gone on the trip. The very fact that the wording of the document is taking soooo long is indication enough that if there were shenanigans attempted in the early stages, that they are no longer possible now. That is the only way that DAE would have become part of the process.

The people of India 8) They are happily caught up in their own petty affairs. I dont think the average man on the street is aware of any of the implications of the 123 agreement or for that matter that there is even a 123 agreement being negotiated!!!.

Raju

Postby Raju » 21 Jul 2007 07:19

ldev wrote:The people of India 8) They are happily caught up in their own petty affairs. I dont think the average man on the street is aware of any of the implications of the 123 agreement or for that matter that there is even a 123 agreement being negotiated!!!.


All it takes to jumpstart the 'average people of India' is a 15 min speech delivered by any stalwart with a strong mass-base.

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Postby ldev » 21 Jul 2007 07:25

Raju wrote:All it takes to jumpstart the 'average people of India' is a 15 min speech delivered by any stalwart with a strong mass-base.


Raju saar,

Riots can be started on issues of roti kapda and makan (at least as far as it relates to slum removal)!!. This nooklear deal is so nebulous for the 'average people of India', that I suspect that even the commies who are the most intellectual of the lot will have a tough time inciting the base for some mass protests. See, when the Nimitz visited, there was a visible symbol of a big ship - this 123 cant be seen, heard or visualized by the janta, so its a very tough sell for even the most seasoned rabble rousing politico :lol:

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Postby SaiK » 21 Jul 2007 07:28

its simple, we have to take decision if we need Iran or not, and it can't be USA to dictate terms to us. f this govt if it agrees so.

Raju

Postby Raju » 21 Jul 2007 07:30

No that's not how you sell it. The nuclear deal can be tied to a certain very emotional issue with Indian public.

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Postby SaiK » 21 Jul 2007 07:31

just remind aam junta about dabol, bhopal tragedy, yadi yada.. and americans are selling us dangerous techs and highly radio actives are dumped into us..

there are lot of ways for riots and raasta rokos.

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Postby ldev » 21 Jul 2007 07:32

Raju wrote:No that's not how you sell it. The nuclear deal can be tied to a certain very emotional issue with Indian public.


Such as?

Raju

Postby Raju » 21 Jul 2007 07:34

Electricity shortage -> American control over energy markets -> MMS American agent -> Shackled Indian energy potential for US -> Finish him.

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Postby ldev » 21 Jul 2007 07:41

Raju wrote:Electricity shortage -> American control over energy markets -> MMS American agent -> Shackled Indian energy potential for US -> Finish him.


I think you are putting the cart bephore the horse. All that GOI has to do is say, " Becoose we do NOT have this agreement signed, you poor people have to sweat it out for 10 hours at at time at the height of summer without power. WITH THIS AGREEMENT, we will give you all the power you need and you will sleep easy at night and your children will be able to do homework WITHOUT candelight". Now, if 5 years AFTER this agreement is signed, there are still 5 hour powercuts, then whoever is in power in GOI will have to face the music!!.

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Postby NRao » 21 Jul 2007 07:43

Perhaps Rep. Edward Markey has been asleep, happens in Boston. Last time I checked (official energy stat from the US Govt - HIS Govt) the US - his country was buying oil from VENEZUELA!!!! One of Irans top buddies!!!!

What gives? Cannot kick a good habit I guess.

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Postby anupmisra » 21 Jul 2007 07:44

here you go folks....

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Indi ... 222101.cms


India, US seal nuclear agreement
21 Jul 2007, 0130 hrs IST,Chidanand Rajghatta,TNN

WASHINGTON: The United States and India have reached an accord on implementing the civilian nuclear agreement, it was announced here.

A brief joint statement issued at the end of four days of intense negotiations said the matter would now be referred to the respective governments for "for final review." Details of the accord were not spelt out.

"Both the United States and India look forward to the completion of these remaining steps and to the conclusion of this historic Initiative," the joint statement said.

It was not clear if the "remaining steps" referred to any residual issues in the so-called 123 Agreement or to the further steps the two sides have to take beyond that - a referral to the Congress for a final up-and-down vote in the U.S, and for India, signing an additional protocol with the IAEA.

"The discussions were constructive and positive, and both Under Secretary Burns and Foreign Secretary Menon are pleased with the substantial progress made on the outstanding issues in the 123 agreement. We will now refer the issue to our governments for final review," the statement said.

Raju

Postby Raju » 21 Jul 2007 07:44

ldev wrote:. Now, if 5 years AFTER this agreement is signed, there are still 5 hour powercuts, then whoever is in power in GOI will have to face the music!!.


And most likely that won't be MMS ehh ? :lol:

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Postby Virupaksha » 21 Jul 2007 07:45

OOps, seems like Anoop beat me to the post.

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Postby Sanjay M » 21 Jul 2007 08:11

Still, when you think that France has 76% of its electricity generated from nuclear power, I dreamily think of the day when we have that.

Now that you mention it, I'm also now dreamily awaiting the day we no longer have MMS in power.

Manufacturing can now take off in India. Our economic growth can now take off. Naxalism, etc will collapse. It's quite a heady thought to imagine that so many poor will get jobs and a chance at life.

How do you think the markets will react? Will the price of uranium soar?

If BJP comes to power, do you think they'll yank the rug out from under it, just like Shiv Sena did to the Enron Dhabol Power Project, which was ironically also shoved into place by a meeting between Dick Cheney and Sonia Gandhi.

Could BJP bust the N-Deal, just like ShivSena did to Dhabol? As I recall, the puncturing of Dhabol is what triggered the start of Enron's collapse. That was when CEO Rebecca Marx quit the company. This time, it will be the entire United States which becomes critically leveraged over India, and not just Enron. I could see the whole edifice of US geo-strategic power and economic primacy collapsing, if the N-Deal came apart down the road.

It's ironic that the Atlanticists will now have to root for a BJP electoral victory, in the hopes that BJP will assume office and puncture the deal.

Raju

Postby Raju » 21 Jul 2007 08:19

Now the spin is that the 'safeguards offer' is what did it for India....

Safeguards offer swung it for India

Indrani Bagchi | TNN
21 Jul 2007, 0230 hrs IST

NEW DELHI: It was India's offer of a dedicated safeguarded facility for reprocessing of imported nuclear fuel that tipped the scales and swung the US to concede reprocessing rights to India. Without this, the Indian government had made it clear that there could be no deal.

The offer of the new facility, made just before the G-8 summit in Heilegendamm, was intended to blunt the non-proliferation opposition. The safeguards and verification of the facility will be implemented by an agreement between India and the IAEA, but the benchmarks will be settled between the US and India. That will form the template of the safeguards agreement that will now be worked out between India and the IAEA, starting in the coming weeks.

In an indication that India wants to wrap up the safeguards agreement as soon as possible, the government has asked India’s envoy to the IAEA, Sheelkant Sharma, to stay on in Vienna until November. The new facility will be built in accordance with the agreed specifications, said sources.

This will not only include a reprocessing facility but a storage facility where spent fuel rods will have to cool down for a couple of years or more before they can be reprocessed. The safeguards will kick in as soon as the fuel enters the complex.

The other big issue that got in the way was the question of fuel assurances and "immunising" imported fuel from the "right of return" should the US decide to invoke it. The US is likely to grant fuel assurances for the reactors that are bought from the US.

But for reactors bought from other countries, India will be free to negotiate fuel assurances from those countries. In other words, India can broaden its fuel supplies, and create what is called a "multinational fuel bank". India is trying to ensure that the language of the agreement is tight enough so even an NSG exemption cannot invoke the right of return, which is a battle neither India nor the US have the stomach for any longer.

On nuclear testing, there cannot be any "give" from the US side, and the 123 agreement will probably say that the US reserves the right to stop cooperation if India tests another nuclear weapon. However, the US president does have a waiver authority on this and the judgment will be made on the "merits" — that is, in the prevailing international security context at the time.

The two sides continue to work out the "tight legal language" that binds the two countries in this agreement. But if the officials work it out this weekend, it is likely that the deal would be signed by secretary of state Condoleezza Rice and foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee.

The battle will now move to the US Congress, and its anybody's guess how they would vote on a 123 agreement with new elements in it. The business and political lobbies are already at work in the US to ensure a clean passage, but the political levers will probably be worked by vice-president Dick Cheney and Rice

URL

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Postby Rye » 21 Jul 2007 08:29

But for reactors bought from other countries, India will be free to negotiate fuel assurances from those countries. In other words, India can broaden its fuel supplies, and create what is called a "multinational fuel bank". India is trying to ensure that the language of the agreement is tight enough so even an NSG exemption cannot invoke the right of return, which is a battle neither India nor the US have the stomach for any longer.


Don't mean to interrupt the whining, but Brazil has one of the largest Uranium deposits on the planet and they are ready to do business with India as part of the NSG. Russian reactors and their fuel supplies and reprocessing waste from those supplies will have to be negotiated with Russia...

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Postby rocky » 21 Jul 2007 08:35

How is a dedicated spent-fuel reprocessing facility any different from a spent-fuel reprocessing facility in campaign mode? Both achieve the same thing, right? That all safeguarded fissile material is accounted for?

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Postby Laks » 21 Jul 2007 08:43

link
BJP to reconsider nuclear deal if returned to power: Yashwant
[quote]A Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government will reconsider the nuclear deal if it returns to power as it feels India may be walking into a “trapâ€

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Postby ramdas » 21 Jul 2007 08:54

ldevji,

The only hope for those who oppose this sell-out is to make it an issue the way Enron was made into an issue. Otherwise our strategic deterrent is capped to puny levels forever. I do not know why you find this compromise acceptable. It is not. Does this compromise not mean

1. No testing in the future even if the strategic situation demands it .

2. FMCT through the backdoor - no more fissile production for weapons.

No amount of "economic growth".. that too of the kind that benifits a minor elite ... is worth this compromise.

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Postby ramdas » 21 Jul 2007 08:56

What is more galling is that MMS and his clique are reneging on solemn assurances given to parliament. They are equivocating on teir commitment to the parliament and therefore the whole people. This is what gives anybody the right to declare them as traitors.


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