What do you mean by 95% proof?
& what methodology is used to arrive at that number? Does the IA Corp of Engineers undertsand and agree with that methodology?
Math and computer design does not mean anything, if the end-use armed forces do not buy in to their understanding of verifyable physics. That is the problem that is sought to be solved by next round of laughing Buddha. Pending which Armed forces will only belive in what was tested in Smiling Buddha and simple re-configuration there of. That itself can deliver desired yield, but that could be sub-optimal in terms of weight and/or volume. This sub-optimal spread could exact its cost in missile range/MIRV options.
123 will freez Indian capabelity to Pok-II; thus any weight reducing gig or change in primary or secondary fuel/confign can just stay as recessed option and not mainstay weapons in hand.
Arun - I agree with your views and not what the bus drivers told me
I just posted the essence of reassuring tone from the driver thats it nothing more and nothing less
To get into more details what was meant is
the subsystems can be tested in actuality without detonating the fissile core.
the test data can be integrated and extrapolated to predict the performance and yield of any particular weapon system to be developed in future
local uranium and imported uranium will follw most likely two distinct use circuits
The imported uranium cycle is import -despatch to safeguarded power reactors both Indian and American made and maybe even to russian and European make .The spent fuel from these power reactors will be taken to stand alone spent fuel storage facility to be set up.After a mandatory cool off period of 4 yrs they may be allowed to be reprocesses ed for extraction of plutonium to be used only in fully safeguarded fast breeder reactors not the present ones for sure
The domestic uranium mined will be fully outside safeguards ,will be used in power production ,reprocessed to extract plutonium and then used either in fast breeders for mixed oxide /carbide fuel rod fabrication or whatever purpose we have in mind
In short we most likely will have two distint fuel use circuits 70% in safeguarded IAEC monitored circuit and 30% in indian circuit to use and utilise the way we deem fit
Surely we will loose a lot if we decide to test even without return clause applicable
And here lies the catch how much we can develop particularly in advanced weapon systems and miniaturizations without actually testing the device in totality
To me agreeing to this deal is agreeing to cap our nuclear weapon proven capability to 98 level and degrading our fissile material build up to 30 % of full potential for a vague term called energy security
which actually makes not much sense anyway
since less than 5% of our energy needs are met by nuclear power as of date
we have the technology to make complete nuke based power reactors and fast breeder reactors in totality
by signing this deal and agreeing to us terms and allowing ourselves to be vulnerable to us lobby we are antagonising countries like iran who can ensure our ebergy security far better thru bilateral agreements
Arun I believe this deal is a sell out of national interest for perpetuity but then how do we make the short sighted govt listen to the true intention of USA.
How can you awaken some one who sleeps while awake -an old indian proverb
That is why the china and pakistan is not protesting -just laughing at our collective stupidity