Indian Nuclear News & Discussion - 22 Jul 2007

Gerard
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Postby Gerard » 23 Jul 2007 07:36

Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
India's nuclear forces, 2007

Arun_S is going to love the description of the Agni 1 and of the Agni 2's RV
Last edited by Gerard on 23 Jul 2007 07:47, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby Sparsh » 23 Jul 2007 07:45

Arun,

If the Americans renege on their commitments in the 123 agreement at a later date then for whatever reason then we do so likewise in a reciprocal manner. It is up to us to ensure that there are punitive measures available to us to dissuade such reneging. I can think of several at the moment:

The IAEA safeguarded foreign fuel stockpile that is built as a part of the perpetual fuel supply commitment has to be on India soil and if fuel supplies are abruptly cut off without prior arrangements for alternate sources of fuel, then fuel from that stockpile will be diverted to the military side. The safeguards will be rendered null and void in such an eventuality. The same applies to whatever fissile material we extract from reprocessing foreign spent fuel.

We can also come up with conditions under which safeguards on foreign equipment will be rendered null and void and the said equipment diverted to the military side in case the foreign governments renege on their commitments.

Another thing that can be done is that foreign reactors and their fuel fabrication and reprocessing plants can be bought from foreign governments and that the financing for that will be backed by the sovereign guarantees of those governments. When they renege on their commitments we renege on repayments and they are saddled with with the repayment guarantee.

I am sure we can come up with similar such punitive measures to dissuade foreign governments from reneging on their commitments.

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Postby Sparsh » 23 Jul 2007 08:25

NRao,

OK. Fair enough. Lets agree to disagree and move on.

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Postby csharma » 23 Jul 2007 08:30

From the bulletin article on India's nuclear forces.

"India flight tested a submarine launched ballistic missile for the first time in Spring 2005"

I wonder if BR was aware of this.

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Postby Satya_anveshi » 23 Jul 2007 08:40

Posting in full as it is quite juicy...making any part bold or colored will only limit the focus on the rest...please read the whole report.

Opposition to demand full 123 text in House

[quote]New Delhi, July 22: The political parties in Parliament, including the Left, the NDA and the newly formed UNPA, will demand the tabling of the full text of the 123 agreement that newspapers, quoting “official sourcesâ€

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Postby Sparsh » 23 Jul 2007 08:47

Dr. Gopalakrishnan is the one who is spinning things here.

RMP was and will remain on the military side. We can do whatever the bloody hell we please in there.

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Postby Manny » 23 Jul 2007 08:51

Gerard wrote:Nuclear fusion
BY STEPHEN BLANK

http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2007/02/2131793

The most important fact of America's new strategic partnership with India is not just that it recognizes India as a nuclear power, but that it also represents open American acceptance and acknowledgement of India's ambitions to be a great power in Asia. The pact was ratified in December. Signed in principle by President Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in July 2005, it overturns three decades of sanctions against India and gives India access to U.S. civilian nuclear technology.


Thanks Gerard. Thats a great article. Not only was it a feel good read, Its very well thought out and makes lot of sense. ITS A MUST READ FOR The paranoid Khadi crowd who are forever chicken littles . :D

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Postby Singha » 23 Jul 2007 09:07

TSP has asked for safeguard n-power parks from which their electricity board will receive feed. I am not sure if its a H&D issue or they genuinely lack in other resources. perhaps what they are angling for is a US grant under which GOTUS will pay GE for the reactors, GE contractors will run the plants and TSP can mooch on the free electricty and play equal-equal-we-have-advanced-GE-reactors too game.

they dont want to pay a dime for it ofcourse and will engineer crises to keep the opex $$ flowing.

US might see this as necessary to combat chinese ownership of pak's nuclear sector...and a good way to buy influence and create moles in pak's nuclear manpower.

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Postby Shankk » 23 Jul 2007 09:17

Singha wrote:...and a good way to buy influence and create moles in pak's nuclear manpower.


That applies to India too.

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Postby Manny » 23 Jul 2007 09:18

Singha wrote:TSP has asked for safeguard n-power parks from which their electricity board will receive feed. I am not sure if its a H&D issue or they genuinely lack in other resources. perhaps what they are angling for is a US grant under which GOTUS will pay GE for the reactors, GE contractors will run the plants and TSP can mooch on the free electricty and play equal-equal-we-have-advanced-GE-reactors too game.

they dont want to pay a dime for it ofcourse and will engineer crises to keep the opex $$ flowing.

US might see this as necessary to combat chinese ownership of pak's nuclear sector...and a good way to buy influence and create moles in pak's nuclear manpower.


So the Hobsons choice for the Khadhi crowd. What do they fear most? The US in TSP or the Chinese in TSP.

:)

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Postby enqyoobOLD » 23 Jul 2007 09:50

Again, what safeguards apply when the "park" is invaded by 10,000 kendo-stick-wielding burkha-clad would-be houris (makes me sad to say this... most of those misguided kids, many of them orphans, that we grinned about are now probably dead or in worse situation than death in Pak Army clutches..)

A nuclear reactor in Pakistan, esp. one under foreign auspices, is a Jihad takeover target almost as good as parking an American Aircraft Carrier in the middle of Faisalabad. I do hope that greed does not get the better of common sense to THAT extent at GE or in the GOTUS!

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Postby Gerard » 23 Jul 2007 09:54

The status of RMP has to be made clear. However, I really doubt that AK and Grover would give in on this.

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Postby Sparsh » 23 Jul 2007 10:27

The status of RMP was made absolutely crystal clear a long time ago when Albright and Basu pulled that preposterous "separation plan" out of their musharaffs and were told to shove it back in.

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Postby NRao » 23 Jul 2007 21:32

[url=http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=38626] INDIA/US: Nuke Deal - Breakthrough or Bad Bargain?
By Praful Bidwai
[/url]

Normal disclaimers apply.

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Postby Vipul » 23 Jul 2007 21:36

Behind nuke deal, a spymaster tale.

Washington, July 22: In the end, it was a case of spy vs. spy.

If M.K. Narayanan, with his 37 years of intelligence work for the Indian government and a further 15 years of advisory role on clandestine activity since his retirement had not met Robert Gates at the Pentagon on July 16, the 123 Agreement to operationalise the Indo-US nuclear deal may have spilled over into another round of negotiations, maybe next month in New Delhi.

Gates, now America’s defence secretary, and Narayanan, now national security adviser, have had parallel lives in the shadowy intelligence worlds of their respective countries.

Gates is the only career officer in the history of the Central Intelligence Agency to have risen from an entry-level operative to CIA director. But the two men also had a 17 year-old matter to settle between them.

So they were looking forward to last week’s meeting to smooth things over and take matters, which were beyond the nuclear deal, forward.

Few people now remember that when Gates arrived in New Delhi in May 1990 from Islamabad as America’s ‘policeman’ to stop what Washington thought was an imminent nuclear war in South Asia, Narayanan was right at the top of the Indian intelligence set up.

He had been chief of the Intelligence Bureau from 1987 to 1990, then headed the Joint Intelligence Committee and again became IB chief in 1991 till his retirement in 1992.

India held the 1990 Gates mission to South Asia — and Washington’s subsequent claim that it averted a nuclear holocaust as a result of that mission — in utter contempt then and continues to do so till this day. But neither America’s intelligence community nor its strategic community has been able to live down the reality that India and Pakistan have managed their nuclear balance between them and on their own.

So on Monday, Narayanan appropriately went to the strategic community in Washington within 40 minutes of his arrival here for his first interaction with them since becoming national security adviser three years ago.

For two full hours, he gave them his assessment of the security dimensions in India’s neighbourhood and listened to their response that obviously included the nuclear-armed status on India and Pakistan.

Then he went to see Gates. There was no rancour. At that meeting, according to multiple accounts, the two men built a bond that is only shared by men and women from the cloak and dagger world of spymasters. Bygones were bygones.

Gates was instrumental in arranging the crucial meeting between US vice president Dick Cheney and Narayanan on Thursday, which sent an unmistakable political signal to the American officials connected with the nuclear deal that their mandate was to finalise the 123 Agreement, not to block it further.

Cheney and Gates go back a long time. At the time of his 1990 mission to Islamabad and New Delhi, Gates was deputy national security adviser in father Bush’s White House and Cheney was doing Gates’ current job.

Gates briefed Cheney soon after he had met Narayanan, giving the vice president a comprehensive account of Narayanan’s presentation at the Pentagon meeting. Obviously, the defence secretary had been impressed and the account by Gates made Cheney curious enough to want to know more.

So, when Cheney met the Indian national security adviser, he quickly gave the green signal for the nuclear deal and proceeded to carve up the world between India and the US in his pet neo-conservative fantasy.

India was primarily interested in getting the 123 Agreement past the roadblocks which have held it up for more than a year. But Cheney was interested in what India and the US could do together in Asia with other democracies, such as Japan and Australia and in the volatile areas of the world’s energy supplies along with “good Muslimsâ€

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Postby Arun_S » 23 Jul 2007 21:49

Gerard wrote:Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
India's nuclear forces, 2007

Arun_S is going to love the description of the Agni 1 and of the Agni 2's RV

Recall the ONIDA TV advertisement: "Neighbor's envy, owner's pride".

Tsk tsk... the hurt pride of white American and add to that white American NPAyothulla. :twisted:

Considering that newest US RVs are 20 year old vintage and only their new RV design that will have onboard navigation & control and become operation in 7-10 years. US leggarding all these years while India had maneuvering RV it for many years and Russia just tested theirs.

American pride getting hurt by NIH(Not Invented Here) syndrome or shall I say the false gospel of "America invents and leads, while world copies (and follows)". Tables turned. Ouch ouch ouch .... :twisted:

As for accuracy of on-board navigation the author conveniently forgot about the fine precision of Indian rocket payload orbit insertion.
Last edited by Arun_S on 23 Jul 2007 23:51, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby NRao » 23 Jul 2007 22:15

Gerard wrote:The status of RMP has to be made clear. However, I really doubt that AK and Grover would give in on this.


In support of what Sparsh stated:

India and nuclear proliferation issues

teh article is from The Hindu, but check out who hosted that artcile.

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Postby John Snow » 23 Jul 2007 22:17

Also note how they "Scout" to bring it up again and again with regrd to Agni.

Kuch Jalan tho zaroor hai Agni ki baath nikalthe hi! :)

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Postby bala » 23 Jul 2007 22:19

From the Bulletin of Atomic Scientist Article...

Somewhat exultant reports have claimed that the Agni II reentry vehicle is superior to Western designs in terms of maneuverability and gliding, with an accuracy of 40 meters (130 feet). These claims are probably exaggerated, given the lengthy and considerable technical difficulties and command and control requirements that Western nuclear powers encountered when trying to develop such capabilities.


Ouch.. Double Ouch.. Western nuclear powers encountered such problems. Tcha.. Tcha... Technical difficulties.. what next...

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Postby svinayak » 23 Jul 2007 22:21

ramana wrote:Well, it ended well in the end. Lets not forget that there were many anxious moments that GOI gave us half informed folks. And they also learned as they went along. The importance of coordination and need to know. The biggest gap was the role of the FBR and the need to keep them on mil side.

The no test clause was also a non starter. Many pro-deal experts didn't understand the nuance of the no test clause or the importance of asserting the right to test even if one doesnt intend to.


What is the role of the evangelist in making sure that the deal goes thru.
There was serious effort to make sure that Anti-American sentiments are not aroused with any break on the deal.

More information is still awaited on this.

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Postby NRao » 23 Jul 2007 22:24

On separation plans, if you get a chance (at your fav lib) check out:

Science 10 February 2006:
Vol. 311. no. 5762, pp. 765 - 766
DOI: 10.1126/science.311.5762.765

News Focus
ANIL KAKODKAR INTERVIEW:
Breaking Up (a Nuclear Program) Is Hard to Do
Pallava Bagla
NEW DELHI--India nuclear chief Anil Kakodkar has no apologies for staking out a tough line on implementation of a landmark India-U.S. nuclear pact--even if that sinks the deal.


That (above) is a fantastic interview - not on the net.

On Separation plan:

Old :: This is what we were looking for: Kakodkar

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Postby Mort Walker » 23 Jul 2007 22:28

As for accuracy of on-board navigation the author conveniently forgot about the fine precision of Indian rocket payload orbit insertion.


This is the reason why a manned space mission may be necessary to clear up doubts and to demonstrate the ability to manufacture large boosters. If anything, the Chandrayaan-I in April 2008 should sufficient to clear up doubts about this matter to the well informed.

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Postby NRao » 23 Jul 2007 22:46

Mort Walker wrote:
As for accuracy of on-board navigation the author conveniently forgot about the fine precision of Indian rocket payload orbit insertion.


This is the reason why a manned space mission may be necessary to clear up doubts and to demonstrate the ability to manufacture large boosters. If anything, the Chandrayaan-I in April 2008 should sufficient to clear up doubts about this matter to the well informed.


Boy, you are an optimist.

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Postby Shankar » 23 Jul 2007 23:08

was lucky to get a chance to talk to the bus drivers who works on BARC-churchgate route and this is what he told me about the nuke deal

1) the computer technology is now advanced enough ro predict how a new weapon design will work even without actually testing (95% proof)

2) The DAE chairman will never agree to anything that will compromise on our nuclear potential in any form

3) The reactors out of safeguard is adequate to meet our strategic needs

4) we general public should not much worry since there are clauses and sub clauses within 123 which protects indian national interest but will be never in public information domain

posted without comments as the drivers told me when having chai in a road side dhaba

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Postby pradeepe » 23 Jul 2007 23:10

Mort Walker wrote:
As for accuracy of on-board navigation the author conveniently forgot about the fine precision of Indian rocket payload orbit insertion.


This is the reason why a manned space mission may be necessary to clear up doubts and to demonstrate the ability to manufacture large boosters. If anything, the Chandrayaan-I in April 2008 should sufficient to clear up doubts about this matter to the well informed.


But Mortji, dont you know that the vehicle for the Chandrayan mission is based almost entirely on the Apache sounding rocket. They hog tie 4 of the nike-apache rockets with local jute ropes wound together by the pagans and voila the ball of cheese is ours for the taking...

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Postby NRao » 23 Jul 2007 23:16

Shankar,

Next time you meet this driver, buy him a cup of tea for me.

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Postby Shankar » 23 Jul 2007 23:22

surely i will do that but is it ok to tell your name if he asks?

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Postby Satya_anveshi » 23 Jul 2007 23:42


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Postby Arun_S » 24 Jul 2007 00:29

Mort Walker wrote:
As for accuracy of on-board navigation the author conveniently forgot about the fine precision of Indian rocket payload orbit insertion.


This is the reason why a manned space mission may be necessary to clear up doubts and to demonstrate the ability to manufacture large boosters. If anything, the Chandrayaan-I in April 2008 should sufficient to clear up doubts about this matter to the well informed.

Many people miss the point.

US has two faced Janus set up to handle foreign events that could remotely challenge their Hyper-Power hegemony:

1. One is the Psy-ops fronted by organizations like FAS etc. to drill in the myth of American invincibility, goodness and the sole right to "benevolent dictatorship" and browbeat other nations & organizations that stand to challenge the falsehood.

2. Second is the pragrmatic intelligence analysts in the back offices of NSA, DoD, DoS and other GOTUS departments, that use technical means and subject matter experts to realistically assess military/technology developments abroad. These guys correctly assess the capabelity and feed it into the systems that eventually make up to confidential security estimates that are used for operating business of the day, and only a censored and watered down version make it to the publicly availabe security estimates.

The latter know what Agni's maneuvering RV mean, and its estimated technical capabilities. The former OTOH are donkies who can be taken to a watering hole but you cant make them drink the water, for they have a mission and job they are paid for. Chandrayaan, SRE, Manned space program will not make them budge from how difficult it is for India to do anything was found difficult by western powers 50 years ago. :twisted:

The very fact the hound dogs are barking is because they fear the elephants presence, and the elephant is getting too close for their comfort. Just validates the impact made by BR-missile section, it has started to make them hurt. So chill and enjoy their hurt feelings. :twisted:

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Postby SaiK » 24 Jul 2007 00:45

shankar, bizkoot on my name. :wink: . thanks for the "we"..

In the meanwhile, "we" still need to figure out the SPM and how international inspection regime will measure and monitor spent fuel usage that is to be used only in the dedicated facility.

Instead of mountain moving, it has to be mohammad (our technology and products and installations) going to the reprocessing facility sites/zones. So, I guess its okay to have international inspection on say a 500MW AThWR reactor or a future ADS in works within this confiscated zone.

Another question will arise, say how do we see if the spent fuel Pus are actually from NSG fuel supply or homegrown in the future. Lets say, Th232->U233+Pu->..actinides cross chain reaction (if possible and worked out by our chiefs at barc. Alok N would have thrashed this}, that should lead to U235.. and there on.

The first question would be to gurus, in such assumption of future reactors that if we could develop required Pus from our future fast breeders, that the base fissile being Th232., then how is it possible to separate or segregate NSG fuel with the processed fuel obtained thru our reactors, within civilian zone?

I guess we would have to give up on the controls viz civilian sites, and I hope the nu deal would'nt be hard on the scientists to get clearance after clearance to move things around within the facility / zone itself. AND, we have enough control to check on the controllers themselves who could still be looking stealing technology that is home grown thru IAEA as the adapter.

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Postby Mort Walker » 24 Jul 2007 00:58

Shankar wrote:was lucky to get a chance to talk to the bus drivers who works on BARC-churchgate route and this is what he told me about the nuke deal

1) the computer technology is now advanced enough ro predict how a new weapon design will work even without actually testing (95% proof)

2) The DAE chairman will never agree to anything that will compromise on our nuclear potential in any form

3) The reactors out of safeguard is adequate to meet our strategic needs

4) we general public should not much worry since there are clauses and sub clauses within 123 which protects indian national interest but will be never in public information domain

posted without comments as the drivers told me when having chai in a road side dhaba


Shankar,

I have no reason to doubt you, but consider the bus-driver may not know better. If he did, he wouldn't be a bus-driver unless those in this particular route are paid very high.

Computer calculations may be adequate for determining if a design works or not, but there is always concern as to what the actual yield will be with the effect of tamper and secondary fission in a thermonuclear device.

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Postby NRao » 24 Jul 2007 01:09

Driving the bus is his second job.

However, IF the confidenc elevel could be increased to say ..... 99.99% ...... it would demand a second cup of tea - khada chamach.

And, erect a 'lil monument at the dhaba too. For future gen.

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Postby vsudhir » 24 Jul 2007 01:14

NRao wrote:Driving the bus is his second job.


More juice here. D'ya know which bus he's driving? The 'universal serial bus', no less. Plugs into any and every device, allegedly. :twisted:

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Postby SaiK » 24 Jul 2007 01:16

maybe firewire~ :twisted: anu-shakti ver. 2.0

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Postby bala » 24 Jul 2007 01:18

note how they "Scout" to bring it up again and again


Scout ... came from ... V2 (German) .. came from ... British Colonel Congreve Rocket (paintings on US Congressional Hall, Red Rockets Glare etc... ) .. came from Ruler Tippu Sultan of Mysore Rocket Brigade, very near Blore head quarters of ISRO, which tinkered with Scout initially but has moved way past this 60's ancient/aging/old rocket design. Full Circle, tabula rasa.

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Postby ShibaPJ » 24 Jul 2007 01:20

Another question will arise, say how do we see if the spent fuel Pus are actually from NSG fuel supply or homegrown in the future. Lets say, Th232->U233+Pu->..actinides cross chain reaction (if possible and worked out by our chiefs at barc. Alok N would have thrashed this}, that should lead to U235.. and there on.

The first question would be to gurus, in such assumption of future reactors that if we could develop required Pus from our future fast breeders, that the base fissile being Th232., then how is it possible to separate or segregate NSG fuel with the processed fuel obtained thru our reactors, within civilian zone?

I guess we would have to give up on the controls viz civilian sites, and I hope the nu deal would'nt be hard on the scientists to get clearance after clearance to move things around within the facility / zone itself. AND, we have enough control to check on the controllers themselves who could still be looking stealing technology that is home grown thru IAEA as the adapter.

I believe, this has been clarified by folks here and anyway, the tidbits are coming out in bits & pieces. If what has been published by DDM is correct (of course, we have the see the fine print), this should be the shape of things to come:

- The dedicated reproc plant would reprocess all imported fuel to enable multiple processing through PHWR/ AHWRs. The enrighment would not be > 20% to ensure only PHWR/ AHWR/ LWRs are supported. (this might change, as and when India decides to put FBRs in civ list). So there won't be any generated fissile materials from these.

- The separate reproc would be under India-specific IAEA safeguards (to be separately negotiated) and not US-defined intl supervision. If reproc tech is Indian and safeguards are not intrusive, then we are safe. Alternatively, GE/ Areve etc are welcome to put in their tech/ money and build a plant. No propietary tech, nothing to steal.

- All fissile mtrls from FBRs are non-civ and India is free to build bums, dump them in garbage and/ or gift to friendlies (which won't happen of course) :wink: IAEA/ NSG don't have any locus standi in this case.

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Postby vnadendla » 24 Jul 2007 01:23

NRao wrote:Driving the bus is his second job.

However, IF the confidenc elevel could be increased to say ..... 99.99% ...... it would demand a second cup of tea - khada chamach.

And, erect a 'lil monument at the dhaba too. For future gen.


Not surprised at all that his first job could be a scientist...... Sad but true.

-

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Postby JCage » 24 Jul 2007 01:41

vnadendla wrote:
NRao wrote:Driving the bus is his second job.

However, IF the confidenc elevel could be increased to say ..... 99.99% ...... it would demand a second cup of tea - khada chamach.

And, erect a 'lil monument at the dhaba too. For future gen.


Not surprised at all that his first job could be a scientist...... Sad but true.

-


The bus driver is an old BR inside joke.

Since one cannot use unnamed sources on BR, when one occasionally comes across something of interest, the bus driver at the chai shop is a ways of sourcing the info.

Comes with the caveat of being third party info with all associated pros and cons.

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Postby Gerard » 24 Jul 2007 01:51

The best source is actually the cousin of the wife of the chai wallah outside the BARC complex who you meet on the bus

Just remember that your uncle the BARC physicist is not an appropriate source. This is illegal and verboten on BRF.

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Postby enqyoobOLD » 24 Jul 2007 01:56

was lucky to get a chance to talk to the bus drivers who works on BARC-churchgate route and this is what he told me about the nuke deal


THANKS! FINALLY a source who is knowledgeable enough to ask for simple and honest answers, and convey them honestly.

For all those who sneer at the bus driver as source, remember that it was the barber shop outside Kahuta that provided final, irrefutable confirmation of the nook-nood reality - there was no Pu in the hair cuttings of those working in the enrichment facilities. There hadn't been any fissile material inside Kahuta in more than 6 months.


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