Indian Nuclear News & Discussion - 28 Jul 2007

khan
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Postby khan » 29 Jul 2007 18:06

[quote="vsudhir"]N-deal to trigger sweeping enrichment of the campus (IE)

[quote]Big-bang news in six months on education in nuclear engineering, says Bikash Sinha, director, Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics

New Delhi, July 28:This is one fallout of the Indo-US nuclear deal that has not hit the headlines so far. Foreseeing a spurt in demand for nuclear scientists in India, the government is working on a wide-ranging policy to introduce nuclear sciences courses in universities.

As of now, only IIT-Kanpur has a programme in Nuclear Engineering and Technology which, on an average, awards barely 10 M.Tech degrees and just one PhD each year. But those working in the area of nuclear sciences in various organizations of the Department of Atomic Energy are mostly science and engineering graduates who have been trained for specific jobs.

While such an arrangement has worked with reasonable satisfaction till now, top experts in the field say there is a need being felt at the highest levels that the country needs better qualified nuclear scientists.

“I can tell you that probably in the next six months there is going to be a fairly important policy announcement in this regard,â€

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Postby Calvin » 29 Jul 2007 19:11

This just means that GOI is now adopting a broad based and integrated approach to the technology issue. Perhaps BR can go easy on the "how can this blow up in our face" angle.

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Postby rocky » 29 Jul 2007 19:12

khan wrote:I hope we don't move too fast on this. I wouldn't want to hear of a pissed off Indian building a "Dirty Bomb"...
I also hope we don't move too fast on teaching women how to cook ... I wouldn't want to hear of a pissed off Indian woman using her "kitchen knife" to murder people...

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Postby rgsrini » 29 Jul 2007 19:36

Rocky wrote:
teaching women how to cook ...

I guess some Islamic streak is hidden in all of us. Please don't mistake me for not agreeing with your actual 'exagerated' point.

Calvin. Good one!!! I don't know if you noticed other hidden themes in this thread...
"Babus are dumb and they compromise national security"
"Congress party is anti-national"
"India would not have gained in strength and will continue to be less equal to USA and other countries in the future"

Maybe it is just me who is too cocksure that India of future will be confident and it will be the other countries who will frantically work around it to be in the good books of India.

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Postby Gerard » 29 Jul 2007 19:51

Time to admit India's future as world power
OF ALL the foreign policy shocks delivered to Australia and other allies in Asia by the US President, George Bush, probably none will resound more deeply than his embrace of India as a nuclear power.

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Postby CRamS » 29 Jul 2007 20:23

deleted
Last edited by CRamS on 29 Jul 2007 20:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby NRao » 29 Jul 2007 20:29



The Pakis must have started writing this on J18, 2005 and re-writing it ever since.

However, here is a threat from them:

In its mad pursuit of circumscribing Chinese role in the world, Washington is losing sight of a grave danger. India's propaganda notwithstanding, the US-supplied nuclear help for "civilian purposes" will enable it to divert the material for military uses and build its atomic arsenal. That would pave the way for a nuclear arms race between the two South Asian powers as well as induce other countries in the world to think of taking the nuclear road. The result: nuclear proliferation.


This is a direct threat to reopen Khan Mart.

Hope cooler minds will prevail.

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Postby rgsrini » 29 Jul 2007 20:30

CRamS.
I will let yours be the last word in the interest of not derailing the thread...

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Postby CRamS » 29 Jul 2007 20:47

rgsrini wrote:CRamS.
I will let yours be the last word in the interest of not derailing the thread...


OK, deleted, but I hope you won't proclaim India's superpowerdom status through this 'deal' :-).

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Postby Calvin » 29 Jul 2007 20:49

I hope you won't proclaim India's superpowerdom status


Some might say that this deal is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for ascent to world power.

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Postby svinayak » 29 Jul 2007 20:51

Gerard wrote:Time to admit India's future as world power
OF ALL the foreign policy shocks delivered to Australia and other allies in Asia by the US President, George Bush, probably none will resound more deeply than his embrace of India as a nuclear power.


But as one acute observer of India, Edward Luce, observes in his recent book, In Spite of the Gods, this is the purpose of the Bush plan. "The deal would give India the fuel and cover to accelerate its nuclear weapons program and counterbalance the Chinese."

This is a seismic shift in our region's geopolitics.

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Postby Gerard » 29 Jul 2007 20:57

Govt says nuclear deal 'much better' than anticipated
Government on Sunday insisted that the civil nuclear deal with the US was "much better" than that "anticipated" but admitted that certain Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) countries could pose some difficulties to the agreement in the 45-nation grouping.


Indo-US N-deal detrimental to India's interests: Jayalalithaa

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Postby Gerard » 29 Jul 2007 21:20


Gerard
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Postby Gerard » 29 Jul 2007 21:42

Australian Premiers to dig in on uranium
THE federal Government will investigate seizing control of uranium reserves from anti-mining states, triggering another constitutional showdown with the Labor premiers.
I'm prepared to go back and re-examine the advice we received," the minister said. "We need to ensure that these ideologically based oppositions to uranium mining do not have a net economic effect on Australia
Pakistan's Minister for Religious Affairs, Muhammad Ijaz ul-Haq, last night warned of a possible diplomatic backlash should Australia decide to sell uranium to India.
"They have to keep the balance of power," he said. "Pakistan's nuclear program is totally peaceful. If we are are going to go further into nuclear, it is going to be for energy because we are suffering from power shortages and ... strikes all over the country. So I would expect Australia to consider assisting Pakistan alongside India and also put your foot into resolving the Kashmir problem."

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Postby svinayak » 29 Jul 2007 21:47

Gerard wrote:Australian Premiers to dig in on uranium
THE federal Government will investigate seizing control of uranium reserves from anti-mining states, triggering another constitutional showdown with the Labor premiers.
I'm prepared to go back and re-examine the advice we received," the minister said. "We need to ensure that these ideologically based oppositions to uranium mining do not have a net economic effect on Australia
Pakistan's Minister for Religious Affairs, Muhammad Ijaz ul-Haq, last night warned of a possible diplomatic backlash should Australia decide to sell uranium to India.
"They have to keep the balance of power," he said. "Pakistan's nuclear program is totally peaceful. If we are are going to go further into nuclear, it is going to be for energy because we are suffering from power shortages and ... strikes all over the country. So I would expect Australia to consider assisting Pakistan alongside India and also put your foot into resolving the Kashmir problem."



What does TSP hold on the Aussie govt. Is the ISI still influenced by the Aussie dept.

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Postby Gerard » 29 Jul 2007 21:52

Pakis have already been slapped down....

Downer said on Friday that selling uranium to Pakistan is out of the question because Pakistan's two nuclear power stations are not monitored by the United Nations, Australian Broadcasting Corporation radio reported.

"I don't think there's any prospect in the foreseeable future of exporting to Pakistan, unless Pakistan gets into some sort of a system of UN inspections and control over its two civil nuclear facilities and it comes to Australia and seeks a nuclear safeguards agreement," he was quoted as saying.

"It doesn't seem likely that's about to happen," Downer added.
[quote]“Pakistan, I might be wrong, but to the best of my knowledge anyway, have never approached us on this issue before,â€

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Postby ramana » 29 Jul 2007 22:02

The attack on BARC facility in J&K appears to be inspired to influence the deal. And now TSP is making noises on Aussie supplies, the deal itself being signed. Looks like playing much above their weight.

WRT Aussies and TSP there are deep connections from early post Independence days.

Cawthorn anyone?

Acharya, Read Sandy Gordon's book "India a Rising Power" and see the angst. This is truly a seismic shift and Aussies fell betrayed. Its Gallipoli again.

KG might elaborate on this.

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Postby NRao » 29 Jul 2007 22:19



Even peaceful use? Irradiation is good for the locals - even Muslims. This is a cornerstone for Indian nuclear field.

Keeping the jihadis out would solve the problem - just like keeping them out of NYCity.

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Postby CRamS » 29 Jul 2007 22:28

NRao wrote:


However, here is a threat from them:

In its mad pursuit of circumscribing Chinese role in the world, Washington is losing sight of a grave danger. India's propaganda notwithstanding, the US-supplied nuclear help for "civilian purposes" will enable it to divert the material for military uses and build its atomic arsenal. That would pave the way for a nuclear arms race between the two South Asian powers as well as induce other countries in the world to think of taking the nuclear road. The result: nuclear proliferation.


This is a direct threat to reopen Khan Mart.

Hope cooler minds will prevail.


TSP can bray whatever it wants, but I would be keenly awaiting what the response of those US Indian containment hawks will be. For example, they could easily encourage TSP to indulge in a bit of proliferation hanky panky, then feign helplessness and cite that this is the detrimental effect of this 'deal'.

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Postby ramana » 29 Jul 2007 22:35

CRS, Then all bets are off!

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Postby Paul » 30 Jul 2007 00:24

Ramana wrote:
Cawthorn anyone?



what did he do after moving to Aussieland? Recall he founded ISI and also negotiated the CFL on behalf of Pakistan.

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Postby asprinzl » 30 Jul 2007 00:26

India is not a super power yet. It is still a regional power with limited power. It still depends on "Hand of God" (the monsoon rain) to determine the percentage points of economic growth year in year out. Not a good measure of a power. India should not lose sight of this glaring hole.
Avram

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Postby ramana » 30 Jul 2007 00:37

Avram, Yes Agriculture effects ~ 70% of population but GDP wise its different. Maybe the econ gurus might shed some light on this. As India transforms with the urbanization of the rural this is bound to change.

However your caution is well advised as the old saying goes- 'There is many a slip btwixt the cup and the lip' and' Dont count your chickens before they hatch.'

But you can indulge them to savor the moment for the many years spent in the wilderness.

8)

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Postby NRao » 30 Jul 2007 00:51

TSP can bray whatever it wants, but I would be keenly awaiting what the response of those US Indian containment hawks will be. For example, they could easily encourage TSP to indulge in a bit of proliferation hanky panky, then feign helplessness and cite that this is the detrimental effect of this 'deal'


Proliferation or escalation? Just need clarification.

Either way, does anyone really think that this deal would be THE cause of such a reincarnation? IF Chicom had that much sense - to be reactive - we would not be here. Just a note to NPAs that is.

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Postby Calvin » 30 Jul 2007 00:56

Agriculture contributes only about 20% to GDP, Manufacturing is another 20%, and Services are 60%. A bad monsoon will suck about as much as bad hurricane will suck for the US.

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Postby kshirin » 30 Jul 2007 01:11

Calvin wrote:Agriculture contributes only about 20% to GDP, Manufacturing is another 20%, and Services are 60%. A bad monsoon will suck about as much as bad hurricane will suck for the US.


Very interesting, explains a lot. But manufacturing should go up, or we lose the race to China. Just read an article in IHT I think how China is soon going to overtake S Korea as world's largest shipbuilder. Everywhere you see they are catching up with the number 1s. Gives me the creeps. Will they gobble up the Brahmaputra too?

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Postby Sparsh » 30 Jul 2007 01:15

JCage,

I highly doubt that the GoI is going to let private companies, Indian or foreign, operate any civilian power reactors any time soon. There are issues like insurance and accident liability that need to be worked out and this is easier said than done. Kgoan had talked about this a while ago.

And even if the GoI lets foreign companies operate power reactors, I am absolutely certain those foreign governments will not let these companies transfer any of their nuclear related R&D activity to India. Information can flow two ways and they know it. This simply will not happen.

The DAE does not risk loosing its highly specialized nuclear related R&D manpower to the private sector as there will be no work for them to do in the private sector.

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Postby NRao » 30 Jul 2007 01:30

ramana wrote:CRS, Then all bets are off!


Ramanaji,

With all due respect, I think this is one thing that India can sit tight, enjoy beating GB in Cricket and sip a feni.

Here on out no matter who, Chicom, TSP or wrongly screwed NPAs, they all will be much bigger headaches to other nations than India. This is one line that India, IMHO, would be very glad to stand at the tail end.

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Postby NRao » 30 Jul 2007 01:37

Sparsh,

I think you bring up a great point. We need to put this whole shebang on a time-line (what else can techies do?).

Assuming the work on the first (of 10) reactors starts in Jan, 2008, when would each get finished, come on-line, when would the worlds most advanced reproc plant receive the first batch to reproc, and, when would the first reproc end product come out?

(I am betting that TSP will not exist as we know it by the end of that time-line.)

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Postby ramana » 30 Jul 2007 03:40

A simple Gantt chart would do.

meanwhile two articles from Deccan Chronicle, 29 july 2007
[quote]
‘No interference in weaponisation’


On Board Special Aircraft, July 29: India on Sunday said the civilian nuclear deal with the US would not interfere with the country’s weaponisation programme and hoped to finalise the agreement to operationalise the deal “as soon as possible.â€

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Postby Suraj » 30 Jul 2007 04:17

Agriculture+fisheries+forestry together contribute 18.4% of GDP, as of 2006-07 (i.e., the last) fiscal. Combined, they grew by 2.6% last year. Agriculture alone grew 1.5% .

Despite these figures, the gross domestic product grew 9.4% in 2006-07 . The industrial sector (which contributes ~28% of economy) grew 11.9%, while the services sector, which contributes ~53%, grew almost 11% . Recently, agricultural growth data for 2006-07 was revised up to 3.5%, which may cause overall GDP growth for 2006-07 to be revised upwards of 10% when they do the official revision later this year.

The industrial sector was a source of concern, but we've already crossed the phase where manufacturing growth exceeds service sector growth. In the first two months of the current fiscal, industrial growth averaged about 12.5% .

The 'Indian economy depends on the monsoons' case is no longer as pertinent; the last five years have seen two years of bad monsoons and three of generally average rainfall, and average growth during the assocaited 5 year plan period was 8%, easily the fastest ever.

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Postby vsudhir » 30 Jul 2007 04:30

India’s nuclear summer (IE)

The challenge is to change the Indian mindset: from rebel to stakeholder in global N-order


It was during this visit that National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan first offered a dedicated and safeguarded national facility to store foreign-origin spent fuel. Contrary to popular perception, the idea actually came from the Department of Atomic Energy that sought to break the impasse. A DAE representative confirmed that this could be done as a measure of confidence.


Despite this, the agreement hung in the balance until the pull-aside meeting between Singh and Bush in Germany, where the US president expressed surprise when told about the issues blocking the deal. He asked NSA Stephen Hadley to sort out the differences internally after talks with Narayanan.

In many ways, Bush’s intervention delivered the agreement. Interestingly, many feel it could all have been deliberately set up by Burns and company for the US president to magnanimously bridge the final gap. A more accurate understanding would be that there is institutional resistance from the US bureaucracy, trained as it is not to deviate from the NPT and the order that flows from it. The US has gained tremendously from the order, and to make an exception for India is a decision many in Washington still find hard to accept.

The reason, perhaps, can be found in the new power order rather than in the non-proliferation system. In the shaping of perceptions, Bush took a call two years ago that in the post-9/11 world, India was uniquely positioned as stable democracy, vibrant economy and plural culture to hold credibility on the world stage. More importantly, 9/11 brought this part of Asia back in focus and Bush was convinced of India’s potential to be a force for stability in this volatile region.


Well written. But is it true that unkil's really changed its attitude towards India?

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Postby svinayak » 30 Jul 2007 04:43

vsudhir wrote:India’s nuclear summer (IE)

Well written. But is it true that unkil's really changed its attitude towards India?


That is the psy ops which the Indian elite is unable to figure out.

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Postby bala » 30 Jul 2007 05:33

Positive spin doctoring..

Nuclear deal "much better" than anticipated: Narayanan

"There's always scope for improvement, I suppose but it was much better than what we anticipated. So I presume it is somewhere between the best and good," said National Security Advisor M K Narayanan. "We also got a commitment saying this is an agreement between states with advanced nuclear technologies with the same benefits and advantages," he said, adding that "in a comprehensive sense, I think it is an all-encompassing kind of a statement, which I think should make me sustain all that we wished to have."

With the conclusion of the civil nuclear deal, New Delhi will now have to negotiate an India-specific safeguards agreement with the IAEA. "This should certainly not take a year. It may take weeks or may be a few months at the very best," Narayanan said.

Asked about India's next step of convincing the NSG to ensure that it allows international community to have nuclear cooperation with New Delhi and whether reservations by members like Austria, New Zealand, Sweden, Norway and possibly even Japan could become stumbling blocks, Narayanan said "it could." He, however, said that the US had promised to lobby, besides a number of other countries, including Russia, the UK and France have offered to help. "We are very clear that no post-conditions, as they are generally referred to, would be agreed to by us, unless it's something that is minimal because I think what we are seeking a clean exemption from the NSG," the NSA said.

With regard to fall-back safeguards in the event that the IAEA is unable, for whatever reason, to safeguard Indian facilities, Narayanan "we have taken that contingency into consideration and if and when such a situation were to arise. If such an eventuality were to occur then both the supplier and the recipient would get together and decide what procedures are necessary."

He said India had got "multi-layered assurances" on fuel reserves.


On the issue of the US having right to return of nuclear fuel and technology if the 123 agreement comes to be terminated, the NSA said "If you see the text, and look at it with no degree of prejudice, you would see that we have got a fairly comfortable position as far as immunization of India's strategic reserves is concerned." When referred to concerns that the Obama amendment would restrict or in some way undermine India's right to build up strategic reserves, Narayanan said the US would have to adhere to the Hyde Act while India will "adhere to what we have got in the 123 agreement". Americans have agreed to help India build strategic reserves, have committed themselves to the continuous operation of the Indian reactors and will only take back fuel which has been supplied to India by America, once India has had the chance to make alternate arrangements to replace it.

On the possibility of the deal going through the US Congress which is dominated by the Democrats, he sounded hopeful, pointing out that Democrats have always been favourable to India.

Credit would be given to Vajpayee since he had started the process, Narayanan responded "Oh yes, most certainly. I think the process would never have taken off, but for Mr Vajpayee and the team."

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Postby sivab » 30 Jul 2007 05:42

[url=http://www.hindu.com/2007/07/30/stories/2007073053941100.htm]“I don’t think the country is yet willing to recognise the U.S. is a benign powerâ€

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Postby sivab » 30 Jul 2007 05:52

From all the information leaked out and offcial, it is very clear 123 has followed Hyde act. Be it dedicated reproc. facility or right of return or fall back inspection by US etc.

But AK says its a good deal ...

Interesting that Hyde act should make this one exception about reproc. tech transfer to multinational or bilateral facility and Burns hinting about that in his interview "if Indians are interested..." US law prohibits returning of used fuel to US. They want to rope in India for GNEP to reprocess nuclear fuel from other countries?
Last edited by sivab on 30 Jul 2007 06:22, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Sanjay M » 30 Jul 2007 06:02

bala wrote:Positive spin doctoring..

Nuclear deal "much better" than anticipated: Narayanan

...

On the possibility of the deal going through the US Congress which is dominated by the Democrats, he sounded hopeful, pointing out that Democrats have always been favourable to India.



I find that to be extremely naive. The Democratic Party is dominated by the Atlanticist lobby, and there is also the fact that any initiative of Bush's is anathema to them.

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Postby svinayak » 30 Jul 2007 06:29

Sanjay M wrote:
bala wrote:Positive spin doctoring..

Nuclear deal "much better" than anticipated: Narayanan

...

On the possibility of the deal going through the US Congress which is dominated by the Democrats, he sounded hopeful, pointing out that Democrats have always been favourable to India.



I find that to be extremely naive. The Democratic Party is dominated by the Atlanticist lobby, and there is also the fact that any initiative of Bush's is anathema to them.


Now atleast people should understand why the Indian elite is unable to understand the US psy ops.

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Postby wasu » 30 Jul 2007 06:58

What do u expect narayanan to say?

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Postby Sanjay M » 30 Jul 2007 07:17

Well, I hope what he said on that is not what he believes. Because then otherwise he's likely to be disappointed. I think the 123 deal will have a tough time in Congress, and that the Democrats will queue up to start picking it apart.

And this is where we Indians need to start questioning the dynamics of the Democratic Party, just as Jews have begun to question it. We Indians have the power to talk to other Indians, to get them to also question their beliefs about the Democratic Party. Too many Indians give knee-jerk support to the Democrats, because they want to cash in on the affirmative action gravy train, etc. But yet look at how Democratic Party is increasingly targetting India. The Democrats are increasingly reduced to a party of quota-seeking lovers of job entitlements, who bash Indians as job-stealers, who are completely under the thumb of Atlanticist puppeteers, who selectively single out India for nuclear sanctions when by contrast they completely rubber-stamped the Pressler Amendment during the 80s.

Obama Amendment? Why is Obama taking the lead in attacking India? Why has he made this his issue? What happened to brotherhood amongst the coloured people? Why doesn't he take more of an interest in North-South issues, and see the NPT's discriminatory apartheid setup?

Because this cocky guy doesn't care about Asians. And that means that Asians shouldn't care about him. That means Asians should turn towards newer upcoming demographics like Hispanics, to seek alliance with them. Then let's see how cocky Obama is, when he finds the African American vote bank isn't strong enough to beat an Hispanic-Asian vote bank.

So the solution is not to sit with fingers crossed in anxious hope, or to try and put a falsely optimistic spin on things. Don't get anxious. Don't get Indian fatalism. Don't get melancholy. Don't get mad. Get even. Nothing chastens a fellow' like a counterpunch.


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