India Nuclear News and Discussion 17 August 2007

[saty]

Best case scenario; Govt. falls because of left and NDA comes back to power renegotiates the deal quickly such that 123 == J18.

All the hidden gaps that we worry about disappear and the deal is proven to have bipartisan support.

NDA signs the deal with the next govt. in US. Cycle closed all worries about "future govt." disappear.

It is a solid bi partisan deal on both sides.

[svinayak]

I have not seen a clear message from BJP indicating if they are for or against the deal. There are a lot of columns from their camp which are bordering scare mongering.

This was posted before.
Can somebody from pro-deal poster review this. Again no simplified answer.

[quote]
PRESS RELEASES
August 04, 2007


Press Statement issued by Shri Yashwant Sinha &
Shri Arun Shourie on Indo-US nuclear deal

Preliminary comments of the BJP on the Agreement between the Government of India and the Government of the USA concerning peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

1. The BJP has been expressing its reservations regarding the Indo-US nuclear deal from the very beginning. When the Joint Statement was issued at the end of the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Washington in July 2005, Shri Vajpayee issued a statement in which he expressed his reservations about the deal, specially with regard to its impact on our strategic nuclear programme. He had expressed his apprehension at the proposed separation plan of our nuclear facilities between civilian and military. Later, when the separation plan was presented to Parliament, we expressed our opposition to it. We warned the Government of India when the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House International Relations Committee of the US Congress adopted the draft bills for enabling this cooperation between the two countries. We protested strongly when the Hyde Act was passed by the US Congress. We have consistently opposed the deal in Parliament whenever discussions on this deal have taken place.

None of our fears and apprehensions was ever given serious consideration by the Government of India. No effort was ever made by it to evolve a national consensus on this vital issue of national concern before making commitments to the US.

The text of the bilateral 123 Agreement has been made public on Friday, August 3, 2007. We have looked at the text and our preliminary comments are as follows:

(i) Each party is required to implement this Agreement in accordance with its national laws and regulations and its licence requirements. There is no doubt, therefore, that the implementation of this Agreement shall be governed by the provisions of the Hyde Act of 2006, the US Atomic Energy Act of 1954, which are its national laws on this subject, and its licensing requirements relating to the supply of nuclear materials to India {article 2(1)}. The confidence with which US officials have asserted that the Agreement is Hyde act bound flows from this provision. Which act will India enforce on the US?

(ii) The Agreement is supposed to lead to full civil nuclear cooperation between the two countries yet article 2(2)(d) talks of cooperation relating to “aspects of the associated nuclear fuel cycleâ€

[bala]

Like Shivji has said: none of the these big mouth Indian politicians have read the 123 agreement in depth. That includes Karat and Yech since their objective is to please their master - China. Even those who pretend to point out certain clauses have not read the other clauses. The more you read the 123 text the more it makes eminent sense and the agreement is as good as it gets. 123 can be read by a lawyer who has experience in international contracts and he/she would agree that the contract is fine and there is not a wiff of any bias/screw india language. So far we have these well proven points:

1) The Boogeyman of Hyde Act being invoked because of Indian Nuke Test has been legally debunked. Sure the US can override and negate anything they want and they will but as far as using only 123 text legally they cannot.

2) Everyone has pointed out that China makes yada.. yada better deals. But even that has been shown to be the same as 123 too. e.g. no national law can be applied because of some international governing principle, but 123 also abides by the same international laws. Once again legally the text of 123 has done a fine job.


My take on the CPI&M goons is that they will tuck their tail soon and comply with the congress ruling roster.

BJP could have been more constructive and supported the deal which by all accounts has their stamp on it: POK-II nuke testing was their bold idea, PM Vajpayee called for moratorium based on the same BARC scientists/advisors, BJP had initiated talks with the US via Jaswant, they know that Uranium supply in India is a problem/issue for scaling up, thorium research was given a boost by them, BJP is aligned with US interests. India knows full well that the BJP ushered India into global weapons status. So why be coy about this deal and instead of being non-chalant/indifferent, NIH syndrome, become part of the deal and support it overwhelmingly. Time for BJP to show leadership. Just imagine if BJP annouces they have some isses with the current 123 but they overwhelmingly/enthusiastically support such an alliance with the US, that would knock the wind of the CPI&M Traitors and everyone would know that CPI&M and CHINA are the villains and detrimental to India's progress in the world. The goal is for India to recapture 20-25% world trade and any restriction on trade (yes even nuke trade) is a bigtime no-no for the objective of world trade leadership.

[saty]

BJP could have been more constructive and supported the deal which by all accounts has their stamp on it: POK-II was their nuke testing was their idea, Vajpayee called for moratorium based on the same BARC scientists/advisors, BJP had initiated talks with the US via Jaswant, they know that Uranium supply in India is a problem/issue for scaling up, thorium research was given a boost by them, BJP is aligned with US interests.

Uh as good as it gets??? Hardly???

And the BJP is not against the deal; it is against this version of the deal; Shourie et al have brilliantly pointed out how 123 != J18. So your statement on politicons not having read the deal is not true.

George Fs statement on PM was typical George; truthful consistent and to the point.

Why the hurry to brush the truth under the carpet? The GoI because of a weak PM has let opted for a half deal instead of going for a full one.

Lets at least not insult intelligences here by saying "WOW"

[saty]

I like this lady

Resign forthwith, Jaya tells Manmohan

You can emigrate to the US, where your daughter and son-in-law have citizenship rights.

Ouch...

[svinayak]

Lets at least not insult intelligences here by saying "WOW"

If you keep posting like this the Energizer Bunnies will start running around here with glee.

[bala]

Shourie et al have brilliantly

Please go back to page 5 of this thread where I have shown Shourie's so-called brilliant thesis is full of holes i.e. that China is bound by international laws that states no national law...and India is bound somehow by the principle of international law which states ...

And pray tell what is the truth that is being brushed under carpet.

No one is insulting intelligence except you.

[svinayak]

Americans have sold us a lemon


Those who have a vested interest in the UPA Government not making an early exit - among this lot are Ministers for whom a ride on the gravy train has never ever been so good and bureaucrats with their snouts in the trough - need not lose any sleep over last week's ruckus created by a petulant Left which feels cuckolded by the Congress. All the maudlin talk of the Left-Congress marriage going sour and the aggrieved partner filing for divorce is so much bunkum and no more. Our comrades will sulk, whine and lick their wounded pride, but, rest assured, they shan't bite the 'hand' that affords them a sense of power without accountability. Crumbs from the high table are as good as the main course for them. So, an immediate mid-term election is as unlikely as the India-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement fetching Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a second term in office.

Yet, Mr Singh is desperate to promote the deal as a great foreign policy success and a personal achievement. So much so, he has had no qualms about misleading his country about the implications of the deal and how it will impact on our nuclear programme. Instead of being upfront, he has taken recourse to half-truths; rather than take his country into confidence, he has chosen to keep facts out of the public sphere. For all his exertions, he has achieved little: At every stage of the deal's evolution - its reference to the US Congress, testimonies during House and Senate committee hearings, drafting of the Hyde Act, resolution of differences and its passage, negotiation of the 123 Agreement and articulation of the Bush Administration's position on contentious issues - thanks to the truly transparent system of governance in America, the people of India were fully informed of nuts-and-bolts details that were denied to them by their own Government.

In a sense, bulk of the problem that Mr Singh faces today over selling the 123 text to an incredulous nation stems from his obsession with converting a bilateral agreement into a personal deal, one that he has struck with US President George W Bush. If we rewind the sequence of events and begin with the India-US joint statement of July 18, 2005, it will become clear how he has consistently tried to hijack an issue of national importance and convert it into a personal 'triumph' that would find him a place in history. From the very beginning, he made every effort to keep those with technical knowledge out of the negotiations, then grudgingly let them have their say, but finally had his way. History will record that the finer nuances with far-reaching consequences of this "historic agreement" were not worked out by our nuclear scientists but by a retired police officer who now holds the exalted office of National Security Adviser.

Of course there were others who helped the Prime Minister in this enterprise. For instance, two successive Foreign Secretaries eager to please the political establishment rather than safeguard our national interest. One of them, Mr Shyam Saran, who played a key role in the negotiations on the deal till he was edged out by his successor, Mr Shivshankar Menon, was not even aware that India has a nuclear doctrine and posture till he was told about it in June, much after he had demitted office and well into the 123 negotiations. There is also the father-son duo, comprising Mr K Subrahmanyam, who is now busy redefining, at this Government's initiative, India's position on disarmament and control regimes related issues to bring them in conformity with Washington's views, and his son, Mr S Jaishankar, now India's Ambassador to Singapore, who was drafted for negotiating the deal even after he was no longer based at headquarters and whose unabashedly pro-American views are no secret.

While Mr Singh and his cabal were busy crafting an agreement that panders to American interests, gullible mediapersons were being fed with misinformation and disinformation; stories were planted to make our nuclear scientists appear no better than the neighbourhood car repair mistri; and, Parliament was repeatedly assured that unless India's concerns were met, there would be no agreement. Obviously, such assurances mean nothing for an accidental Prime Minister who has come to believe in a larger-than-life image of himself and insists that all "patriotic Indians" must support the deal which, in its present form, is patently loaded against India. After promising that "all aspects of a complete nuclear fuel cycle" would be factored into the agreement - or else it would not be accepted - the Prime Minister has slyly thrust upon the nation a deal that only touches upon "aspects of the associated nuclear fuel cycle". Which means transfer of dual use technology and related facilities remain outside the ambit of what is being touted as a never-before agreement on nuclear cooperation.

Since the text of the 123 Agreement, the Hyde Act and the US Atomic Energy Act are available, it does not require great intelligence to figure out what is in store for us after the deal is operationalised. To begin with, this arrangement is not about full cooperation but selective participation to the extent that it serves American commercial and non-proliferation interests. It gives the US the right to discontinue supplies (recall how the deal on Tarapur was dishonoured), withdraw fuel and reactors, insist on end-use monitoring and ensure fallback safeguards. Most important, it converts what has till now been a voluntary moratorium on further nuclear tests into a binding bilateral legal obligation; once the NSG gets into the act, it will become a multilateral obligation. The right to reprocess spent fuel, as is being claimed by Mr Singh, is no more than a statement of intent. The US has sold us a lemon, all "patriotic Indians" are expected to believe it is an orange.

Let's face it. If this agreement goes through and is operationalised, India's strategic programme will be adversely affected. Nothing would suit the Americans better than capping and then rolling back our military nuclear programme. The deal cut by Mr Singh will serve this purpose; it is the proverbial thin end of the wedge - soon this Government will cravenly agree to curb fissile material production and impose restrictions on missile technology development. If Mr Subrahmanyam has his way, our nuclear doctrine and posture will be junked and substituted by a draft dictated by Washington.

The Prime Minister is welcome to believe that everybody else but him is untutored in diplomacy and strategic affairs. He is also welcome to believe that national pride is irrelevant and we must crawl when asked to bend. History will show he is horribly wrong on both counts.

[UPrabhu]

What is even more perturbing is the offer of study group formation is purely a govt. saving political excersize just answering to the left with no intentions of carrying consensus.

[saty]

Please go back to page 5 of this thread where I have shown Shourie's so-called brilliant thesis is full of holes i.e. that China is bound by international laws that states no national law...

Uh... getting China is just another angle; J18 was not about China it was about India and what India and US were going to do. So if you dont want your intelligence insulted; start showing some

That was point 1.

Getting China in and muckraking on that point is a attempt to score brownie points w.r.t. to left. (and I am not convinced by your brilliance; if that was such a no point as you make it out to be our 123 would have had a similar statement.) As far as I see your point is mere waffling.

Anyway as it happens; you probably have not read what I wrote before

I am not pro BJP or pro Congress; but some people here seem to support the deal on the basis of their political affiliations rather than a India centric view.

Let his Grace Brittaina Oxford Singh say in the parliament openly

"J18 != 123 but 123 > no deal and not a bad one. We shall see what future brings."

And all will be well.

That is all we are asking for right? No spin; no attempts to use the deal for political gamesmanship and straight talking so the country knows what it is getting in for?

Why is it so tough.

[sugriva]

Todays paper has Sharad yadav saying the agreement is "the worst possible" thing. Frankly I rate my ability understand such texts as being way ahead of the likes of Sharad Yadav


Sharad Yadav has a diploma in civil engineering. How do you claim that you have better ability to understand such texts than Sharad Yadav. What are your credentials?

[saty]

Lets at least not insult intelligences here by saying "WOW"

If you keep posting like this the Energizer Bunnies will start running around here with glee.

Is that all it takes??

[saty]

Are things really this bad or is Shekar's lifafa showing??

Pressing pause on deal will deepen crisis at n-power plants

[bala]

So if you dont want your intelligence insulted; start showing some

Since you have not read the 123 text at all and neither have you read the BJP's Shourie article which makes a huge fuss about Hyde and Nuke testing by India, I will conclude that your comprehension level is approaching zilch and ergo your intelligence. Please re-read the entire thread for comprehending the arguments before you mouth of your brilliance.

[saty]

Yet, Mr Singh is desperate to promote the deal as a great foreign policy success and a personal achievement.

To begin with, this arrangement is not about full cooperation but selective participation to the extent that it serves American commercial and non-proliferation interests.

Bingo bingo bingo.....

The whole problem here is the lying by the PM

[saty]

So if you dont want your intelligence insulted; start showing some

Since you have not read the 123 text at all and neither have you read the BJP's Shourie article which makes a huge fuss about Hyde and Nuke testing by India, I will conclude that your comprehension level is approaching zilch and ergo your intelligence. Please re-read the entire thread for comprehending the arguments before you mouth of your brilliance.

Yes your lordship; you are so well aware of what I have read or not read; unfortunately lesser mortals like me who do not have access to mind reading as you; read the whole thread; lurk endlessly etc etc...

But I cant argue with highr mortals like you can I? Who believe more in personal attacks rather than studied argument.

Go on keep it up; not the first time we would have seen your ilk.

[saty]

What is even more perturbing is the offer of study group formation is purely a govt. saving political excersize just answering to the left with no intentions of carrying consensus.

Congress under the current leadership (Unlike Rao) does not seem to believe in building consensus and more keen on ramming things through.

Not good for the polity. They need to get off their high horse.

I believe BJP would support them; if PM made a statement in the parliament as to how J18 != 123 but > no deal and BJP quitely supported them.

As it happens the lefties are making a hue and cry and BJP scores political points watching the fun.

PS> My 10 paise prediction (increased from 2 because of inflation) that this storm is just a nautanki since the Left has even fewer balls than our great PM. And BJP cant really do shit today (not that I think it really wants to)

I think all the political parties really know what the deal is about; how is it a half deal; and yet why is it needed. What we are seeing now is merely political posturing to get the most out of situation for individual good (or in case of Left China's good) They want to deny Singh a chance to use the deal to build up his stature which is just as well; since in my opinion we should detest this deal yet go ahead

[svinayak]

Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh with UPA leaders during their meeting in New Delhi on Sunday. Photo: PTI.



Sorting it out: Railway Minister Lalu Prasad, UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar at a meeting of the UPA constituents in New Delhi on Sunday to discuss the impasse arising out of the CPI(M) demand that the government put on hold the India-U.S. nuclear agreement.

[nkumar]

In the first place, UPA should have known that the commies being traitors will not agree to a deal which indirectly challenges China's hegemony in Asia. Two, they should have worked behind the doors to involve BJP, they did not do that and are now paying the price. Three, even after that when BJP demanded the JPC to look into the deal, Congress retorted by saying,"this is worst kind of hypocrisy" - I think this closed all doors for backdoor diplomacy between Congress and BJP.

After this if people say that BJP should show some understanding, then IMHO this is a bit weird. IF the deal has to be signed (I personally have some reservations in its current form), then understanding has to come from the Congress' part, they will have to approach BJP and not the other way round. What is most surprising is that our PM could not understand this even after seeing PVNR very closely. He should have known from the beginning that they are surviving on the crutches of traitors. PM has alienated himself by challenging left and holding BJP responsible for 'havans' for his death !!

And even now Congress is not realizing that on this crucial matter, they should get someone from the BJP on the committee, which is to look into the deal just to hedge their bets. They may dump the committee when the deal is signed and claim the credit.

Having said all bad words for commies, as some poster has said, if CPM's opposition leads to a better deal, it is most welcome. This is Indian Democracy, although an imperfect one, at its best.

JMTs of course.

[pradeepe]

Looks like the rhetoric on both sides is getting very high (in the Indian political scene) - same here on BRF I guess ).

I see Amma jumping in as well. I thought such things were not said publicly

If the UPA coalition were to fall, warts and all, I fear for the fractured coalition that would get thrown up. Not good for the country. Contrary to the expectations that the new one would negotiate a better deal, it would IMHO basically shy away from any such thing. With the political blood bath that would follow, we can forget any thing called foreign policy for a while. We might as well erect walls around the country.

[saty]

Having said all bad words for commies, as some poster has said, if CPM's opposition leads to a better deal, it is most welcome. This is Indian Democracy, although an imperfect one, at its best.

JMTs of course.

How can that be; dont you know some folks have already concluded that this is the best we SDREs are entitled to? And if we disagree we are 80 IQ morons who dont deserve to speak without being attacked viciously.

Democracy is not for all you know. Only for the high born who are in congress etc.

Be happy at the crumbs man; how dare you ask for more?

[svinayak]

http://www.hindu.com/2007/08/20/stories ... 071400.htm

http://www.hindu.com/2007/08/20/stories ... 231600.htm

http://www.hindu.com/2007/08/20/stories ... 321600.htm

http://www.hindu.com/2007/08/20/stories ... 151400.htm

http://www.hindu.com/2007/08/20/stories ... 790100.htm

http://www.hindu.com/2007/08/20/stories ... 271500.htm

[UPrabhu]

This attitude that anything opposition asks is to be rejected, u cannot treat a party with almost same size as congress like untouchables on deal of national significance.




Joint parliamentary committee must probe N-deal: BJP

Onkar Singh in New Delhi | August 20, 2007 12:17 IST



Vijay Kumar Malhotra, deputy leader of the Bhaartiya Janata Party in Lok Sabha, has said that the Indo-US nuclear deal is not something whose fate can be decided by a committee of Congress and the Left parties.

Addressing newspersons at Parliament House Complex, Malhotra demanded setting up a joint parliamentary committee to probe the deal.

"This is not a family affair, which can be decided by the United Progressive Alliance and the Left parties. The issue is a national issue and hence members of other parties should also be included in the joint parliamentary committee.

"Until the matter is probed and a report submitted, the government should not operationalise the deal," he demanded.

Even the United National Progressive Alliance has demanded setting up of joint parliamentary probe. Congress has already rejected the demand.

Senior Congress leaders who were present in the complex denied that the government was thinking of setting up any joint committee at the moment to sort out the matter.

"What is the point of setting up a committee if the Left is going to reject it outright," a close confidant of Sonia Gandhi [Images] said as he explained the present situation to mediapersons.

He admitted that the situation was not very good and the country may have to go in for mid-term polls if the Left does not change its stand and arrive at some deal.

He denied that External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee will make any statement right now.

"The statement will come only if there is a debate in the house. Left parties are not only demanding a discussion, but also non-operation of the deal. That is not acceptable," he explained.

[saty]

I will post a new thought I just had: I think perhaps a deal made by this govt. will be suspect because of political reasons even if a bad enough to live with half deal.

The best thing will be for the deal to be made by a truly representative govt. even if it is 3 years hence.

This lame duck govt. hobbled by left and guided by the Manio family can make anyone suspect even a high feast.

And this is what I see more and more.

Note: my reasoning for not going ahead are quite different from the deal being "bad" and can not be done.

The deal must have bipartisan support if it has to go through.

[abhischekcc]

Because of the Chinese opposition, I am now fully convinced that this is a good deal. And now I fully support it.

My earlier doubts on the deal were because of the too-clever-by-half language used in the text of the deal. I thought goras as usual were talking with their forked tongues.

Whatever doubts I had, are now removed because of the sheer hatred the chinks have displayed. And I do not feel guilty about using a racist term to describe racists.

-------------
The left as usual is up to its anti national games.

[abhischekcc]

Here is my support for the deal:

[saty]

Whatever doubts I had, are now removed because of the sheer hatred the chinks have displayed. And I do not feel guilty about using a racist term to describe racists.

What if the Chinks know that this is a bad deal; but to convince us that it is good deal are getting left to speak against it. So as we are convinced that China does not want it?

Just a thought?

But yes deal potentially better than no deal; (also potentially worse than no deal) but potential exists.

However not J18....

there has been a bait & switch by US; and that is not comforting.

[saty]

Here is my support for the deal:

I forget can some one please refresh my memory on how N^3 came to coin the EB phrase?

[Prabu]

Put the nuclear deal on hold

Put the nuclear deal on hold

Editorial from THE HINDU, 20th August,2007


For a mild-mannered Prime Minister who leads a government dependent on external support for survival, Manmohan Singh is demonstrating obduracy of a strange and unreasonable kind. His current posture of ‘I-must-have-the-nuclear-deal-or-I-go’ suggests that the political objective of completing the elected term of the United Progressive Alliance regime has been subordinated to the greater goal of seeing the deal through. And herein lies a fatal contradiction. The guaranteed way of sinking the civilian nuclear deal, which this newspaper has editorially endorsed with some caveats, is for the government to go down, taking the 123 with it. What should be clear to anyone who is not on a high horse, with blinkers, is that given the deep political polarisation there is little chance of any other Prime Minister or government making a go of this deal in the conceivable future.

For at least two years now, Dr. Singh has been passionate in his conviction that the civilian nuclear deal he initiated with President George Bush in July 2005 was not just in the interest of India’s nuclear programme, which had suffered from a harsh international regime of sanctions and technology denial; it was a supreme national necessity because “nuclear power is critical to our energy security if we want to be a world powerâ€

[Shankar]

You know -yesterday was watching a panel discussion on NDTV by Vikram when he talked with Arun Shourie .It was so obvious he was not at all conversant with the 123 .AS was much better briefed and knowledgeable about the deal and every time AS made a point Vikram would cut him off aether by changing the topic or going to a legal expert or an interview with a man on the street .

It was so obvious that he had a brief to prove AS wrong .First he tried legal angle then common man angle .

For the first time NDTV lost its credibility as an independent news channel .

Vishnu - can you give me a response to BR on this please

[saty]

Y

For the first time NDTV lost its credibility as an independent news channel .

Whom are you kidding... first time snifff...

NDTV is a lifafa of MMM lobby big time (be it through congress or Karat).

It may be the aha moment for you but this is something that a lot of us have said many time before....

[Raja]

Let his Grace Brittaina Oxford Singh

Just because you may not be as educated or intellectual as him, you need not turn his credentials into a mockery.

Whatever doubts I had, are now removed because of the sheer hatred the chinks have displayed. And I do not feel guilty about using a racist term to describe racists.

Which still makes you a racist and only dilutes otherwise meaningful insight you may have. *shrugs*