India Nuclear News & Discussion - 4 Sept 2007

Gerard
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Post by Gerard »

P.S. If that German intelligence report quoted in the book coming out on Sept 13 is correct about Pakistan still proliferating, what does that tell us about US desire or ability to do anything about the situation?
According to Mark Hibbs, the European Editor of Nucleonics Week and Nuclear Fuel, everyone he has spoken to confirms the Paki proliferation network is still operational. Without it, the Paki bum program will shut down.


The Next 5 Big Nuclear Stories: A Conversation with Mark Hibbs
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Post by Sanku »

Philip wrote:http://www.hindu.com/2007/09/05/stories ... 931000.htm
The nuclear deal: the larger picture
!
Hey!! He stole my points :P
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Post by Prabu »

sraj wrote:
emsin wrote:Thirdly it should be clear by now that there is no way to break the uranium cartel except 2.
Just stating some facts in the interest of an informed debate; so please do not jump to any conclusions about my views on this deal as it stands today.

Facts:
1. As of today, the 45-nation NSG will not sell Uranium to India without requiring full-scope safeguards on all Indian nuclear facilities. Consequently, all these efforts to get a Waiver from NSG via the US (which created NSG).

2. Niger, Namibia, and Uzbekistan are all among the top 6-7 producers of Uranium today and are not members of NSG. They are all signatories to NPT as a Non-Nuclear Weapon State (NNWS) Party. An Indian company has already acquired a license to prospect for Uranium in Niger.

3. It is perfectly legal under Article III of NPT for an NNWS Party to export Uranium to another country provided such export is covered by IAEA safeguards (pls note the distinction between these NPT rules and NSG requirement for full-scope safeguards on all nuclear facilities in a country).

4. Of course, one could say that the US may bring political pressure to bear on Niger, Namibia, Uzbekistan, etc. not to export Uranium to India.

5. But if the US wishes to show goodwill towards India (because it has a lot of other fish to fry with India), it may decide not to do so. Also, since India should show some self-confidence as per KS, and has developed so much 'clout' which is only going to increase in the future, perhaps it can do so by, for a start, importing Uranium from non-NSG countries in a perfectly legal fashion -- starting tomorrow.

6. Conclusion: there is a way to break the Uranium cartel which does not require breaking any international laws.

A Good post !
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Post by Manny »

abhischekcc wrote:There seems to be some confusion/admiration for the positions of W. Europe and Japan as uncle's poodles on this forum.

First thing first. Germany and Japan royally kicked uncle's arse in WW2. America may have defeated the two countries militarily in the war, but did not harm their economic independance. The elites of both Japan and Germany became part of the America led alliance post-WW2. That's why they were rewarded.

America became the manager and the policeman (aka - the Sheriff) of the global capitalist alliance out of sheer necessity. Because they knew that the next world war may just wipe out the AMericans as well. (Just like WW2 wiped out the British empire). They couldn't stay out like they did after WW1.

Under the arrangement, South America was exploited for US economy, Africa for Europe, and East Asia for Japan. The only exception was West Asia, which US kept for itself. Parts of Asia were bundled off to the Soviets (we were part of that bundle).


The elite of the defeated axis powers was not wiped out after the war. Only some sham trials of some of the generals were held. Did top officials of IG Farben of Germany face punishment? They were the ones who manufactured the gassing equipment used in holocaust, even before the nazis even thought of starting the holocaust?


------------------
There is another myth being propogated by many people, especially in media and kangrez wallahs - that India's 123 is better than China's 123. That is simply a lie. China is a NWS state under the NPT, hence a lot of restrictions do not apply to it.
I like the way you said that Germany and Japan kicked Uncles Butt.. Royally. I sense the relish in your statement. I see the satisfaction in your "roayally" word there.

ROFMAO...

And then you go on and meekly admit.. "at the end they were defeated" with a disappointment... yet contradicting what you said earlier about kicking butts.

Japan was and still is under the US because its a defeated nation after it Bombed the US. So, the moral of the story is...don't Bomb the US if you don't want to be under the US.

I bet you are thinking that.. you should have the prerogative of bombing the US and still want the US to leave you alone..Right? Thats the DEAL you are holding out for...right?

Dream On! The lefties do not have much say in the US. Commies here would be hunted down like the mangie dogs they are. Commies and their sympathizers like Karat and their minions are not tolerated and not given any respect. They are rightly ridiculed here. Why do you think the US is the most powerful nation on this planet? NO COMMIES! and they do not allow millions of illustrates run their country and foreign policy.


:lol:
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Post by abhischekcc »

Manny.

Yes, I relish the fact that they kicked Uncle in the place where the sun don;t shine. But I am absolutely ecstatic about the way Germany treated Britain - just like Britain treated its colonies. :D


The point I was making was - Uncle had to take over the management of the capitalist system out of sheer necessity. But continued because it is profitable.

Sane historians regard the WW2 as a intra capitalist crisis - one in which different versions of capitalism fought each other.

Japan was and still is under the US because its a defeated nation after it Bombed the US.
This is factually in correct. Japan never bombed US, except Pearl Harbour.

the moral of the story is...don't Bomb the US if you don't want to be under the US.
No, the moral of the story is - never challenge the US without nukes in your armoury.

Why do you think the US is the most powerful nation on this planet? NO COMMIES!
You obviously take your history lessons from NCERT books, so you will not understand that the US is mother of communism. (And Britain the father). I'll leave it at that. You obviously have issues.

You will be confounded if I told you that the US is the most successful implementation of the communist model anywhere in the world. :P
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Post by vsudhir »

You obviously take your history lessons from NCERT books, so you will not understand that the US is mother of communism. (And Britain the father). I'll leave it at that. You obviously have issues.

You will be confounded if I told you that the US is the most successful implementation of the communist model anywhere in the world.
Abycc

beri beri interesting.

Care to elaborate in the US and world thread.

Thanks.
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Post by abhischekcc »

I will. Later.

My office time is almost over. I access the net from office :P . That's why I am usually unavailable during weekends.
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Post by ldev »

sanku wrote:What I said was your attitude is odious and the material which you seek already exists on the thread; (I have seen your France post and the replies to the same) so if you were remotly serious about a debate you would use one of the existing points there in as a starting point
I think this underscores my contention that you have no idea as to what India's energy requirements are but do not want to admit it.

If you have any idea what you are talking about, I suggest you respond with figures and numbers. Like I did with the France post, you should come up with an India post with numbers of an alternative vision.

But I suspect when the discussion turns to hard numbers you are afraid that rhetoric will not be enough.

So I ask you again, how many MWs of nuke generation and for how long can India's existing domestic reserves of uranium sustain?

For how long and with how many MWs of installed capacity are India's coal reserves sustainable? What kind of distance from pitheads are thermal power stations feasible? What is the trade off between transportation costs and transmission losses?

Of India's total energy requirements per annum currently what contribution is made by coal, oil, hydro, nuke and other fossil fuels?

How will this energy matrix change over time and how should it change over the next 50 years?
emsin

Post by emsin »

We have prety well established designs for 550 MW PWRs..can design blueprints be passed to private companies like reliance. There are some Asian countries that are interested in our designs.

If the deal doesn't make it through it should be possible to speed up installation of these PWRS..we can get the fuel from the Non-NSG Govts under IAEA safeguards for those units.

Strategic programme still remains outside purview. Has that track been contemplated? Will that be acceptable to Uncle in case the deal falls either because of the Left or due to NPAs in the US. Should the MMS Govt be discussing that backup option with GWB in good faith?
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Post by Sanku »

ldev wrote: How will this energy matrix change over time and how should it change over the next 50 years?
Birathar; for start (for start) why dont you critique the FL article on the same topic posted a little before; it has deal with all the questions you raise. First let us all tackle the basics before I put my shoulder to the wheel. Okee; that is why I said that your spin on my post was just that spin; because if you want to take issues with the data posted on nuclear vs other energies you would have used the starting point as the counter data posted here already. Who posted the data would be less of your import correct.

As I mention before; I am always willing to learn so if you can counter that info I will be happy I have no high horse or no axe to grind.
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Post by member_12182 »

go ahead Sanku!! IMHO,you are doing good job of derailing this thread, I admire your as a great EB of modern times. Keep going :D
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Post by bala »

I have no high horse or no axe to grind.
ROTFLMAF.

Sure, sure. hope you don't fall off your high horse and have an axe grinding over you. You have no logical arguments, all you do is fly of on tangents and you expect others to provide data. Meanwhile Spin away.
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Post by ldev »

sanku wrote:Birathar; for start (for start) why dont you critique the FL article on the same topic posted a little before; it has deal with all the questions you raise. First let us all tackle the basics before I put my shoulder to the wheel.
I do not have to critique other's articles, because if you care to go through my last 20-30 posts on this subject, you will realize that I have worked out fuel costs and capital costs per kwh for nuclear and coal generation from basic raw data with the price of uranium yellow cake and coal as well as capitalized construction costs.

Why dont you come up with your numbers to support your rhetoric which in the absence of numbers is just that? Or, are you incapable of coming up with any?
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Post by Manny »

The BJP are doing it too.

Terming the move as an "insult" to Parliament and the nation, slogan-shouting Opposition members belonging to BJP, Shiv Sena and the Third Front insisted on their demand for formation of a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) to go into the issue.

The demand has already been turned down by the Government.

In the Lok Sabha, BJP and its allies chanted "we want JPC" with Deputy Leader of the Opposition V K Malhotra taking exception to formation of the Committee.

"It is an insult to the House and the nation," Malhotra said adding the action was not proper.
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Post by ldev »

My prediction is that this deal will be signed. And even if the Congress does not handle the Left Front with finesse on this issue and the Left brings the Government down and there are fresh elections, no party or combination of parties that comes to power after the election will overturn this deal and that includes Lalu and Mayawati. The only parties that will overturn this deal will be the Left combination and there is no way that they get enough votes to be able to form a government either on their own or even as the single largest party being asked to form a government by the President of India. But I doubt whether fresh elections will come to pass. The Congress will buckle in to the Left pressure on some other front as as quid pro quo for this agreement.

So all of this from the EB's is nothing but a lot of slogan shouting. Derailing this thread is not going to derail the 123 agreement.
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Post by SaiK »

I 'd alsooo like 2 know what ABs are saying.. (astrology). :twisted: .

Can they find few ETs (energizer tortoise) ???
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Post by ldev »

SaiK wrote:I 'd alsooo like 2 know what ABs are saying.. (astrology). :twisted: .

Can they find few ETs (energizer tortoise) ???
SaiK,

Since this thread is virtually derailed, what the hell? Let's speculate..

Imagine a scenario where to keep the Left happy the Congress does something to appease the Left? Now what can that something be?

Above all what will keep the Left happy will be some kind soothing words or gesture relating to their pupeeters in Beijing? Now what can GOI do to send a positive signal to China? Hmmm..... what about something like some good words on how well Tibet fits in as part of China, or what about the Dalai Lama being asked quietly to go and find some other country to live in? Or maybe something like the fact that we can sit down and discuss China's issues relating to the Arunachal border?

Now, some of these issues especially a statement however innocuous on Arunachal will drive the EB's totally ape-shit. But the Congress will have got the Left's support on the 123 agreement. Maybe the quid pro quo has been agreed upon and the joint mechanism is just an empty mechanism. I think the fun is just beginning.

The EB's will be out in full force shouting," Traitor, sell-out". Sell-out to the capitalistic west as well as communist china at the same time!!!. That will be some day, when many more threads will be derailed. :lol:
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Post by SaiK »

Net effect:-
Master of EBs, Jack of none.
How about?

Re-Election.. we need to spend some money, right? Its time. If we don't have a 3 year term Govts.. Lets create it by default.

I am trying some Jacks to move over to MoEBs.
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Post by svinayak »

vsudhir wrote:
You obviously take your history lessons from NCERT books, so you will not understand that the US is mother of communism. (And Britain the father). I'll leave it at that. You obviously have issues.

You will be confounded if I told you that the US is the most successful implementation of the communist model anywhere in the world.
Abycc

beri beri interesting.

Care to elaborate in the US and world thread.

Thanks.
This should be elaborated here so that commie connection to UK and US has to be exposed. Communism is a social engineering done on a large scale over hundred years. The root of this movement is in UK and the funding was by NY bankers in 1900s and 1910s.
Now the Indian commie is also connected to the worldwide internationalist and commie.
They have links to the western academic and intellectual world.
emsin

Post by emsin »

Kalam is projecting additional requirement of 50 GW by nuclear by 2030. Total installed capacity that stage should be around 180 GW. Thats a significant percentage. But the speech referred to in the last link was dated 12/06. I have a gut feeling the demand will be much higher. Planners would be taking a 9% growth rate scenario for the next 15 years. IMO planners should take into account a 12% growth rate.

In Gurgaon for example there is no power for Industry. They're using captive power from diesel generators. No Industry in Gurgaon relies on the State for power. Establishment of a Delhi-Mumbai manufacturing corridor, Port and Infrastructural development will by themselves require large power. If we are on a fossil fuel based track 5 years from now..we are doomed.

As of 2005 there was a shortfall of 13% in generation. I don't know what that means exactly (gap between supply and demand?), yet if the total installed capacity then was 130GW..we are talking of a shortage already of 16GW presently. I don't think the shortfall includes industries that have based themselves on captive power independent of state power supply..then the figures become even more horrendous..

I wonder how the commies intend to fill the gaps in..except if they want to take us to Maos revolutionary agrarian times.
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Post by NRao »

Sanku
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Post by Sanku »

ldev wrote: I do not have to critique other's articles, because if you care to go through my last 20-30 posts on this subject, you will realize that I have worked out fuel costs and capital costs per kwh for nuclear and coal generation from basic raw data with the price of uranium yellow cake and coal as well as capitalized construction costs.

Why dont you come up with your numbers to support your rhetoric which in the absence of numbers is just that? Or, are you incapable of coming up with any?
I also remember "others" poking holes in your argument and laying some of your articles of faith bare. So yeah; although you dont have to use material in the open source and have a macho "mano to mano" duel of ideas; I find that fairly juvenile.

I am not in the mood to reinvent the wheel for you and if you find that as an excuse to vilify and go on another YB rampage that YBs are doing; that will be just what I expect.

If you are remotely sane; go back to the last point where you ran from the discussion where others pointed out the lack of strength in your arguments and carry on from there.

Cheers... Enjoy your day its rather late without power in India :lol:
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Post by Sanku »

This thread has been turned into comedy central by YBs who are sticking to articles of faith like "hyde act is irrelevant" and going to expose their filthy mindset of indulging in personal attacks to folks who dont agree.

Like Dr Singh said "all those who dont support the deal are not patriotic" is gospel here for the laity.
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Post by NRao »

N-war in House, Govt may end session early
The Government is likely to end the Monsoon Session of Parliament by the end of this week—a clear indication of mid term polls, say political analysts.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?????
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Post by NRao »

IAEA talks may be held in October

[quote]
AEC chief to seek exemption from NSG curbs

New Delhi/Chennai, Sept. 4: Minor changes to the US-dictated timeline permitting, Washington and New Delhi are expected to explore all their options for bringing the proposed Indo-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement to fruition despite the serious reservations voiced by the Left parties. The Bush administration feels it can still act on its promise to be a “sherpaâ€
Last edited by NRao on 05 Sep 2007 21:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by svinayak »

NRao wrote:N-war in House, Govt may end session early
The Government is likely to end the Monsoon Session of Parliament by the end of this week—a clear indication of mid term polls, say political analysts.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?????
It means a no confidence motion. If the govt is not sure of winning the votes it will not hold the session and may set the date for early election citing unable to create a coalition with its current partners.

If this has to happen then it would happen before Oct 15.
By Oct 15 we would know if new election would be declared.
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Post by vsudhir »

It means a no confidence motion. If the govt is not sure of winning the votes it will not hold the session and may set the date for early election citing unable to create a coalition with its current partners.

If this has to happen then it would happen before Oct 15.
By Oct 15 we would know if new election would be declared.
Question is why?

We all know our political class are classIII opportunists and that nothing's as imp as gaddi/kursi et al. In particular, this UPA sarkar has shown egregiously weak knees in several areas of concern. The ars-whupping the left has been regularly dishing out sarkar on national media was beginning to become staple.

So where did these balls come from? To stand firm on principle (123 deal) and risk the government falling? Who is pulling the strings from behind? Is the current dispensation so sure of unkil support going into the polls and in its aftermath as well? This gets more and more interesting, IMHO.
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Post by Kanson »

abhischekcc wrote:I will. Later.

My office time is almost over. I access the net from office :P . That's why I am usually unavailable during weekends.
Very nice principle & policy. Any vacancy there ? :lol:

Very interesting dis-cushion about the father & mother of our brothers. :lol: Pls drop some lines on this...I too interested.
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Post by svinayak »

vsudhir wrote:
It means a no confidence motion. If the govt is not sure of winning the votes it will not hold the session and may set the date for early election citing unable to create a coalition with its current partners.

If this has to happen then it would happen before Oct 15.
By Oct 15 we would know if new election would be declared.
Question is why?

We all know our political class are classIII opportunists and that nothing's as imp as gaddi/kursi et al. In particular, this UPA sarkar has shown egregiously weak knees in several areas of concern. The ars-whupping the left has been regularly dishing out sarkar on national media was beginning to become staple.

So where did these balls come from? To stand firm on principle (123 deal) and risk the government falling? Who is pulling the strings from behind? Is the current dispensation so sure of unkil support going into the polls and in its aftermath as well? This gets more and more interesting, IMHO.
There is something behind the scene which we dont know and not published by the media I guess.
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Post by Kanson »

ldev wrote: If you have any idea what you are talking about, I suggest you respond with figures and numbers. Like I did with the France post, you should come up with an India post with numbers of an alternative vision.
Boss...What a blashmey you are commiting... & how can you raise a question, hmm...they are the only patriarch sorry patriots, you see
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Post by SaiK »

NB wrote:all bunnies, no nukes, makes NBs dull boy
NB=nuclear bunny.
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Post by ldev »

Sanku wrote: I also remember "others" poking holes in your argument and laying some of your articles of faith bare. So yeah; although you dont have to use material in the open source and have a macho "mano to mano" duel of ideas; I find that fairly juvenile.

I am not in the mood to reinvent the wheel for you and if you find that as an excuse to vilify and go on another YB rampage that YBs are doing; that will be just what I expect.

If you are remotely sane; go back to the last point where you ran from the discussion where others pointed out the lack of strength in your arguments and carry on from there.

Cheers... Enjoy your day its rather late without power in India :lol:
Since you are under the impression that I ran away from the last discussion, let me tell you that if either you or Rien had read the link I posted in its entirety, you nor he would have asked the questions relating to cost. But since you do not appear to read anything and only post whats on your mind, let me educate you, much against my desires.

Rien said:
The company(NRG) plans to use reactors from General Electric Co. (GE ) and Hitachi Ltd. (HIT ) that have been installed in Japan. This time around, the industry is aiming to build new plants for $1,500 to $2,000 per kilowatt of capacity, compared with a peak, inflation-adjusted cost of about $4,000 in the 1970s.

Trouble is, the cheapest plants built recently, all outside the U.S., have cost more than $2,000 per kilowatt. .....

.... Idev's numbers are contradicted by any nuclear reactor company. The cheapest quote any company is willing to make is 1500 dollars per kilowatt. France only has those numbers because the upfront investment is now paid off. So many decades later they are finally reaping profits.


.......The problem with the example Idev is using is that the plant is now fully paid off. After twenty years a nuclear power plant will finally be showing profit! While a utility can show profit in less than four years with a coal or gas fired plant. A nuclear plant can't even be built in that time.
So Rien appears fixated on the installed cost per MW of nuclear power and the cost of subsequently produced electricity per kwh as of now as opposed to that produced from written down plants.

The following quote is para 7 under the heading, "Reactor Engineering".

http://www.uic.com.au/nip28.htm
In mid 2004 the board of EdF decided in principle to build the first demonstration unit of an expected series of 1630 MWe Areva NP EPRs, and this decision was confirmed in May 2006, after public debate. The overnight capital cost is expected to be EUR 3.3 billion, and power from it EUR 4.6 c/kWh - about the same as from new combined cycle gas turbine at current gas prices and with no carbon emission charge. Series production costs are projected at about 20% less. EDF then submitted a construction licence application. Site works at Flamanville on the Normandy coast should be complete and the first concrete poured about the end of 2007, with construction taking 57 months and completion expected in May 2012. In January 2007 EdF ordered the main nuclear part of the reactor from Areva. The turbine section was ordered in 2006 from Alstom. This meant that 85% of the plant's projected EUR 3.3 billion cost (US$ 2700/kW) was locked in. (Finland is also building an EPR unit at Olkiluoto.)
What are the salient points from the this para:

1.Capital costs for 1630MWe is Euro 3.3 Billion i.e. USD 2700/MW for this new experimental reactor. The reason France historically reduced its capital costs was by standardizing on 1/2 designs. That is how they achieved Rs 1.60/kwh.

2.This is current cost construction not some historical written down cost.

3. Cost per kwh from this new EPR reactor will be 4.6 euro cents i.e. Rs 2.40-Rs 2.50 per kwh. If you are unaware, NPCIL is currently producing nuclear power at Rs 3 per kwh and their aim is to reduce it to Rs 2 per kwh. I am sure that if NPCIL could produce power from a new generation reactor such as the EPR at Rs. 2.40-Rs2.50 per kwh, they will be very happy.

Also in August 2005 EdF announced that it plans to replace its 58 present reactors with EPRs. By the time they build Reactor No. 10, their $2700MW cost will be down substantially and by the time they build Reactor No. 50, their cost per kwh will likely fall to their historical average of 3 cents per kwh i.e. Rs. 1.60/kwh.


So Mr. sanku, please do some reading before shouting to the galleries. And I hope you now realize that time should not be wasted responding to certain posts where the posters have done no reading of their own inspite of the links being provided.
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Post by pradeepe »

Terming the move as an "insult" to Parliament and the nation, slogan-shouting Opposition members belonging to BJP, Shiv Sena and the Third Front insisted on their demand for formation of a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) to go into the issue.
So no agreement on the the moolah distribution.

And this thread has filled up with enough hot air I guess.
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Post by svinayak »

http://www.hindu.com/2007/09/05/stories ... 781400.htm

Mr. Basu cautioned the United Progressive Alliance government against “taking the country into the American fold which goes against the Common Minimum Programme.â€
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Post by Manny »

I think its time we let West Bengal merge with East Bengal and go their own way. Bangladesh. Islamists and Communists can hold hands and fight the imperialists to their hearts content.

I am all for the freedom for the lefties. I am sure a country full of such "Intellectuals" would do great! They would become more powerful and richer than the "Imperlists" with Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of happiness and justice for all!

Support the freedom of the lefties in India! Support their reunification like the Berliners.

:)
Last edited by Manny on 05 Sep 2007 22:10, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by svinayak »

Gowda slams Indo-U.S. nuclear deal

Sirsi (Karnataka): Expressing disapproval of the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal, the former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda on Tuesday said that if it is operationalised, India would become “a puppet in the hands of America.â€
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Post by Paul »

If true, then Congress will have no choice but to approach the BJP for help out of this difficult situation. Serve them right for not taking parliament into consideration while negotiating the agreement.

However we need to keep our eye on the target. The need of the hour is to exploit the emerging disagreement between the west and China on retaining TSP's mercenary services. All other concerns must be subordinated towards this pressing objective which seems to beachievable in a generation's span.
Last edited by Paul on 05 Sep 2007 22:21, edited 2 times in total.
NRao
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Post by NRao »

Secretary of the Communist Party of India (Marxist)’s West Bengal State committee, Biman Bose, was among the senior members of the “jathaâ€
SaiK
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Post by SaiK »

paul, not under the loggerheads of maniomanships against advanimentarians. i am all for shorter govt duration. hail american system.! :twisted:
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