Rudradev wrote:Arun_S wrote:ramana wrote:Yes. Second Calvin.
I'm afraid I don't understand.
In simpler words, I agree with Calvin's response.
We've some workable bomb designs (but at the 200kt level?)
So even in the worst case if we somehow get caught in the CTBT, FMCT kinda web, we'd still be ok?
As far as I know, "credible minimum deterrence" is NOT a concept that makes any sense devoid of context. It is only credible with respect to a particular foe or foes. If Y_P is the minimum guaranteed yield our arsenal must have in order to deter Pakistan, and Y_C similarly for China, then assuming that China and Pakistan are the only powers we want to deter, our total arsenal must be = Y_P + Y_C.
However, even assuming that our number of 200kt devices is enough to meet Y_P + Y_C; if we allow ourselves to be caught in the CTBT/FMCT web, we are effectively allowing our nuclear deterrent to be frozen at the point where it is credible for China and Pakistan as of DD/MM/YY when the cap was placed.
So unless we are (1) guaranteed that China and Pakistan will never require more than Y_C + Y_P as of DD/MM/YY to deter and (2) guaranteed that we will never have to think about deterring anybody else... which seem like extremely static assumptions to base the continuance of our national security upon...
In what sense does our deterrent retain any credibility whatsoever, under the circumstances Calvin has asserted we would "still be ok"?
For many people the credibility is only proven by mushroom cloud, for many others knowing the sign/symbol of capability (the "Linga") that only comes from having done/mastered it, is as solid a proof as reading the Richter scale from 5,000 Km distance. "Inviting guests to my son's birthday is sign of vitality that does not involve naked display of erectile function."
So for what it is worth to people like me the potency of Indian 150-200kt Fusion Boosted Fission (FBF) is as credible and real as it was in Dec 1995. Just that it requires lot much more WgPu (~17Kg) than the 250kt TN weapon (~2Kg). But China is in no illusion of Indian 150-200kt FBF weapon. Now for smaller missile (weight&size) that can deliver the 200kt punch to desired distance, the TN has to be proven to all Indian stakeholders. And to do that either test or build $30B laser ignition facility that is another "Lingam" to show the reality of the punch to any non-believer.
So there are some very hard numbers in terms of money and time line that India has to invest in before India even start discussing "shitty-bitty" or "fmtc".
[url=http://www.idsa.in/publications/strategic-analysis/2004/oct/K%20Sub.pdf]Narasimha Rao and the Bomb