Nuclear Discussion - Nukkad Thread: 16 Apr 2008

Tilak
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Post by Tilak »

....
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Mukherjee said the sense of the House would be taken when after the three-step process of the deal would be completed. :roll:

"There are three processes, one is 123, which has been done, the second is IAEA India-specific safeguards agreements, that is yet to be done, and the third is amendment to the NSG guidelines that is again yet to be done," he said.

Mukherjee further said: Even if you have the right to sign the treaty, for implementation of the international treaty, you require legislations and these have to be done by Parliament."

"If at that point of time, Parliament refuses to move the legislation, the international agreement will be of no use," he said.
Last edited by Tilak on 24 Apr 2008 05:08, edited 2 times in total.
Suraj
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Post by Suraj »

On the matter of economy, folks may need to consider that the US is facing a combination of falling currency, recessionary conditions, rising inflation and flatlining domestic corporate performance, with a significant number of companies reporting positive results as a result of their international, particularly Asia-Pacific, sales, or involvement in commodity businesses. The US in such a position needs the rapidly growing Indian economy to continue keep its corporate sector afloat. India pre-1998 had an economy about 35% the size of what we have now...
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Post by ShauryaT »

Tilak wrote:
....
.....
Mukherjee said the sense of the House would be taken when after the three-step process of the deal would be completed. :roll:

"There are three processes, one is 123, which has been done, the second is IAEA India-specific safeguards agreements, that is yet to be done, and the third is amendment to the NSG guidelines that is again yet to be done," he said.

Mukherjee further said: Even if you have the right to sign the treaty, for implementation of the international treaty, you require legislations and these have to be done by Parliament."

"If at that point of time, Parliament refuses to move the legislation, the international agreement will be of no use," he said.
Translation: Left - Please give us the go ahead to finish the process and we "promise" to come back to the house before the final go ahead. The question is how much stock is someone willing to put into this promise? Getting ready for Samson?
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Post by bala »

Uranium supplies are down...

Govt to act fast on sourcing uranium from non-NSG countries

[quote]New Delhi, April 23 With new nuclear power units faced with commissioning delays on account of an ongoing fuel crunch and existing stations starving for fuel, India has decided to expeditiously pursue the option of sourcing uranium from non-NSG (nuclear suppliers group) countries, starting with Namibia.

While the Indian Government has already initiated deliberations for exploring a long-term relationship in uranium supply from the south-west African nation’s vast reserves, formal dialogue is likely soon. The African nation of Niger is also being seen as a likely option.

“The matter has been discussed with the Foreign Secretary and the Atomic Energy Commission Chairman and the consensus was that this (sourcing fuel from non-NSG nations) was an option to be pursued immediately,â€
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Post by Gerard »

Pelindaba unlike Raratonga does not imply full scope safeguards in the transfer of nuclear furl supplies. There would have to be a protocol and if India offered inducements to Namibia, it could be assured of supplies.

With all of their Uranium, does Namibia have any nuclear power plants of their own? What portion of the fuel cycle do they handle? They could be helped up the value added chain ... uranium oxide production.. conversion ... enrichment.. fuel rod manufacture... reprocessing technology... in exchange for a guaranteed supply... India could build a few PHWRs to supply Namibia with abundant electrical power...
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Post by Arun_S »

What a busy day!! and a quick glance before retiring I see that the Mauni Guru has spoken, not once but twice.

Sundar you need to come back to civilization, away from Mangolia where connectivity is obviously limited. You are one of the valued resident gurus on subject that I learnt the rope trick when I was relatively a newbie on the subject.

Namastybhyam Guru.

Guru uvachaha:
vsunder wrote:Here we go. Schooner a PNE was emplaced at the SAME depth as POK-1,
and was 35kt. Sedan a PNE was emplaced at 194m and was 100kt.
Off course as Arun_S points out coupling is a factor and one can only compare apples to apples etc etc... Since POK-1 was a declared PNE
a comparison can be made with Schooner that was emplaced at 108m.
I am using the tables that accompany my article in the Monitor and which in turn are taken from Toman's paper presented to the IAEA, in fact the table is a scan of the relevant pages from Toman's note. So indeed POK-1 had a very high design yield, that is now very amply clear. The work of Toman, the Chinese tests and many other factors.
vsunder wrote:Gerard: Several points.

(a) Surely you agree PNE's should be compared with PNE's. Indians were well aware of PNE tests in the USA having witnessed them in Nevada first hand. One time googling came up with names long ago. So much for Venn diagrams. POK-1 was a declared PNE is it not?
So why should one not compare it with another PNE shot like Schooner.
Are you suggesting Schooner vented, they why would Toman use it on his curve? I mean if it was not contained what then would you assign as a value for a crater radius? So I am completely lost with what you wrote. But Toman/ Nordyke has assigned a value and it has a spot on the curve clearly marked.

(b) However, here is the caution. Schooner was emplaced in hard rock, see its position in the Toman curve that accompanies my article. So in dry hard rock the curves predict a smaller crater for the same depth and same yield. So now what is the story in POK. Well read what I write about what RC said in IISc, the situation he said is close to NTS, from what he said I took it to be 75 y^1/3.4 etc etc. Thus maybe one may have to put
something less than 35kt, but surely putting 10kt is wasting resources, digging a 109 m shaft and maintaining it for water logging etc. Water logging was a problem as is clear from reading WOP. Also RC did say for S-2 there was no good crater because of granite strata so the situation is close to hard rock and less alluvium. So one can say with confidence that the POK-1 shaft could take 25kt for sure in a PNE type shot and even more for a non-PNE shot. So yes if you arrange for less coupling and less PNE effects then surely you can emplace bigger yield devices. Unless I am missing a point I dont understand your comment. Yes Sedan and Schooner moved earth but if you arrange for the shot to move less earth then can you not increase the yield? POK-1 was put into a L shaped shaft and maybe a larger chamber.

(c) As far as S-2 I dont know honestly. Could it be a smaller shaft ?
Not having two huge tests; a massive S-1 and another massive S-2 could damage the sub-kt shafts for the next day, damage Khetolai who knows.
Could it be conservatism, here is what has been weaponized, that has the right size and weight to put on a Prithvi the basic missile(not Agni yet remember) and prove it to the army it all works. No fancy gimmicks etc.
What if something new was tried and it fizzled then the army has a real problem. No such issue was there in POK-1 it was not weaponized and the idea was to get a bang and use the PNE figleaf. They should have gone for broke. Look I dont know.

I stop here I am in a dangerous zone, my post count is going up Admins can I remain a TRAINEE forever. Seems I havent much to say. My aim is to be <100 posts in 10 years!!
But value of words of Mauni Baaba is worth diamonds. And for those who don't understand worth of diamonds: "Sou Sonar Ki, Ek Lohar Ki" {100 hammer taps of Goldsmith = 1 of blacksmith"}

And S1 shaft in hard granite substrat (also per WOP) will have far higher far field coupling compared to POK-1 that was not on hard granite. Thus the Mb ratio comparison of the two events require an adverse correction factor for S1 test.

I onlee a poor wretched & backward Vishwakarma (Mistry), in the sangat of brahmins. :twisted:. Naat fair.

Serious stuff can weight. As Poet "Nirala" once wrote to IIRC Harivansh Rai Bacchan in response to his critique in newspaper: "Aaap Banaras Aaiyay, Aaap Ka Liyay Chamraudha Bhigo Rakkha Hai".

Good night.
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Post by John Snow »

deleted irrelavant
JS
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ramana
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Post by ramana »

Bas. Dont drag in brahmins into the nuke thread.
Thanks.

Arun_S, Now that you have some insight into POKI do you see the constraints on Mrs G after 1974? The whole decade is now cast in a different light.
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Post by ramdas »

Did POK-I not function as desired because of some fundamental design incompetence or because of precision manufacturing limitations ? My feeling is that it is the second factor. That was certainly not an area of strength back then.

Does this also make us the first country to botch up the first nuclear test ? Later TSP and North Korea joined us, I suppose. Another series of tests would certainly be required at this stage. With boosted fission weapons being ready to test for a backup.
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Post by ramana »

X-posted from Education thread...
If you take a look at elites, its a fairly small number. The way I define elites is not the IIT-club. It is not a set that comes in through the JEE. Please read Gangan Prathap's work on this. I dont see the JEE as THE solution to determining elites, but it or an exam similar in spirit could be a part of the process.

2% of the scientists do 50% of the work
I believe Gangan Prathap's paper is very relevant to understand the top dog/pyramidal nature of heriarchial organizations. It also shows how leading a few top performers astray brings the organization down!

Please read this one too!

Soft model for brain Drain
Last edited by ramana on 25 Apr 2008 01:58, edited 1 time in total.
ramdas
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Post by ramdas »

Arunji,

The way I see the picture is as follows.

POK-I did not yield what it was expected to. Most probably due to manufacturing deficiencies.

However, in the next 24 years, a lot of work went on and POK-II confirmed that chemically imploded fission devices were understood well.

This understanding also extends to boosted fission weapons. This was demonstrated by the S-1 primary.

OTOH the S-1 secondary did not work properly. In other words, radiation implosion was not yet well understood as of 1998. It also seems that a TN was not ready by December 1995 and was "developed" in a hurry in the next 2.5yrs. This may also account for the ad-hoc nature of its development which you indicated when you mentioned that certain facilities were consulted only after the test.

Clearly, another round of tests is a must in order to understand radiation implosion and get a reliable TN capability. This is much better than relying on ICF + simulations.

RaviCV also indicated that POK-II was done in a more serious way as far as data collection was concerned than POK-I.
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Post by Sanatanan »

ramana wrote:X-posted from Education thread...
Another version of the above observation is the rule: "In any organisation (not limited to just scientific R&D) only 20% of the people do all the hard work, the rest will not only tend to shirk work but would also exert a negative influence."

A corollary rule I have come across is: "If you form a new sub-organisation comprising only of those 20%, then soon enough, only 20% of this subgroup will keep the new sub-organisation going." In other words, you would need the 80% shirkers in order that the 20% produce useful work.
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Post by John Snow »

But is talent also normally distributed? We wish it was but it is not.

Also doess Talent recognition follow Normal curve? I don think so.

All major discoveries are also clustered around some time period.

SO it IMVHO the 2% doing 50 % doesnt come as surprise at all.
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Post by Arun_S »

A quick post before running for next round of business busyness.
ramana wrote:Arun_S, Now that you have some insight into POKI do you see the constraints on Mrs G after 1974? The whole decade is now cast in a different light.
A very pertinent question. India had just emerged victorious in 1971 war, having dismembered Pakistan, making it a non-issue (those years it was thought Pakistan is now off Indian problem chart for ever. Sadly the international layer that created Pakistan in first place, saw a need to give birth to it again and Pakistan reemerged as Phoenix, this time much stronger psy-op to make it Equal Equal with India with all teh air being filled by its step-father in Anglo Saxon world, boxing above its weight)

That was also a time Mrs G knew that integrity of India was now unassailable (I.N.Congress and Mrs G understood the bigger game-plan of the devil for India to disintegrate when Flag was first raised on Red Fort in the Tryst with Destiny). With the foot in door to be in reckoning of Nuclear Weapon State, she knew that India will have time later to build a more credible weapon when needed at a later stage.

Mrs G had serious condition that time with badly faltering economy, very bad food grain situation, and of course at personal front the Allahabad High Court decision. Delaying the next round of N test to perfect and prove it was not high in perato. Yet there was no doubt that when time comes it can and will be exercised. During her second term the resurgent India pendulum was fast turning in other direction, and she was not longer as free in exercising Indian will, the US+ U combo was fast closing the net on India to show India its right place per AngloSaxon game plan. Little gain here and there was more important than testing (she was close to testing 2 times, before her assassination).

As it turned out the DAE team failed the nation again when GOI gave them all that is needed to make it happen. And the GOI that gave it all resources to make it happen was not just NDA under BJP, but more importantly, Mrs.G on her second term, Rajeev Gandhi, Shri PVN Rao, and Deva Gowda).

The Indian military gave DAE full support sacrificing a finger and a limb (human as well as budgetary) so that DAE get all that is required to deliver the goods. But when the moment of reckoning came GOI under ABV gave one last chance to do all tests necessary to their hearts content. DAE faltered again and did not deliver promised goods. ABV tried to cover up failure of DAE (I am still amazed at why the 6th sub-kt test was cancelled!. Thanks to lucky stars of India that of the 3 sub-kt experiments, one of them gave them perfect set of data, other other experiments were evidently poorly designed. Again I say organization flaws of lack of peer review, process and inbreeding/nepotism.
ramdas wrote:Arunji,

The way I see the picture is as follows.

POK-I did not yield what it was expected to. Most probably due to manufacturing deficiencies.
No.
It failed because it was a a Jugaad design. not following scientific methods and processes.

I was shocked to see evidence of the kind of jugaad they did. For example because the Pu core was getting too hot (due to heat of radio active decay), our wizard Dr Anil Kakodkar came up with the ingenious "Jugaaad" of putting a ring of copper around the core (like rings of planet Saturn) to take the heat away, and no one see any problem with that or objected. WOP Page 195:
On 13 May, Soni Kakodkar, Iyengar, Venkatesan and Balakrishnan got down to assembling the device. They had shipped a wooden model of the device to guide them and constantly refrring to it. Apart from the desert heat, there was the more worrying problem of the plutonium sphere overheating teh device. Kakodkar had designed a copper disc that surrounded the plutonium sphere like the rings of Saturn to dessipate the heat being generated by its neutron activity.

Dispite the precautions, the team apparently had not calculated for the extreme weather conditions. The metal components in the device had expanded ever so slightly on the first day and they wouldn't fit snugly when the scientists tried to assemble them despite several attempts. In utter exhaustion by the night they gave up the effort. Soni had always regarded number 13 as the omen of bad luck and now his superstition was coming true.
One does not have to be a nuclear scientist to figure out the need for what disrupts uniform compression of implosion weapon. Symmetry and uniformity of course.

Too hard to understand for the plumber.

Got to run for meeting.
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Post by John Snow »

Jeez all this after Challenger disaster (which is reciprocal of this, here the ambient temps are increasing, there fore the tolorence of snug fit goes whack, and in case of challenger the ambient temperature went down more than expected in FL and the seals shrunk creating a gap for hot fluids to pass to the next stage!!. Amazing the Giants of BARC have clay feet indeed!)

1986 Challenger, 1998 POK II


Quote:
On 13 May, Soni Kakodkar, Iyengar, Venkatesan and Balakrishnan got down to assembling the device. They had shipped a wooden model of the device to guide them and constantly refrring to it. Apart from the desert heat, there was the more worrying problem of the plutonium sphere overheating teh device. Kakodkar had designed a copper disc that surrounded the plutonium sphere like the rings of Saturn to dessipate the heat being generated by its neutron activity.

Dispite the precautions, the team apparently had not calculated for the extreme weather conditions. The metal components in the device had expanded ever so slightly on the first day and they wouldn't fit snugly when the scientists tried to assemble them despite several attempts. In utter exhaustion by the night they gave up the effort. Soni had always regarded number 13 as the omen of bad luck and now his superstition was coming true.
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Post by ramdas »

From what WOP says, at least what was tested in POK I was not even the device that was designed in the first place because of the ad-hoc changes that were made to it. These changes will of course, affect the symmetry of implosion. It is surprising that 12-13 kt yield still happened. The more sensible thing would have been to do a more thorough redesign and then test.

Also seems that other ad-hoc changes would have been made to the tested device owing to the "lack of perfect fit" that happened because the effects of weather conditions were not anticipated. In all, an ad-hoc effort rather than a systematic one.

At least the fact that one test yielded a perfect data set means that there are some systematic people at least. By poorly designed do you mean did not go off or that data collection was not properly planned for ? Could be anything.

John Umraoji: I think POK-I and not POK-II are being referred to . So, it is before challenger disaster.
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Post by Arun_S »

ramdas wrote:At least the fact that one test yielded a perfect data set means that there are some systematic people at least.
If providence means residual streak of systematic people, one can as well bet on scientific lottery.
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Post by John Snow »

ramdas wrote: John Umraoji: I think POK-I and not POK-II are being referred to . So, it is before challenger disaster.
Ramdas garu(ji)
On May 11, 1998, India tested three devices at the Pokhran underground testing site, followed by two more tests on May 13, 1998. The nuclear tests carried out at 3:45 pm on May 11th were claimed by the Indian government to be a simultaneous detonation of three different devices - a fission device with a yield of about 12 kilotons (KT), a thermonuclear device with a yield of about 43 KT, and a sub-kiloton device. The two tests carried out at 12:21 pm on May 13th were also detonated simultaneously with reported yields in the range of 0.2 to 0.6 KT.
***
Added later


Q: How far is the nearest village?

A: (RC) - A little over 5 km. away - Khetolai. Our total yield was set by this.

A: (K) - The hydrogen bomb criteria was determined based on the location of this village.

Q: So you can carry out tests with greater capacity?

A: (RC) - Yes.

Q: Where is India in nuclear weapons technology today?

A: (K) - The 3 tests on May 11, the hydrogen bomb, the fission device and sub-kiloton device, as well as the two subsequent sub-kiloton device have proved clearly that our nuclear weapons technology has achieved a stage of self reliance. If there is a demand for it, we shall do it.

Q: What was the logic behind simultaneous detonation?

A: (RC) - The two devices, the thermonuclear and fission device were one km apart. We needed to make sure that the detonation of one did not cause damage to the other, since the stock wave has a time travel in milliseconds. So went in for simultaneous detonation. It was also simpler - use one button to blow three. We had close in seismic measurements and accelerometer data also.

Q: What fraction of the hydrogen bomb energy is due to the thermonuclear part? What was the cost of the tests and weaponisation?

A: (K) - As regards cost, this does not amount to huge amounts. These costs were met from the budgets of our respective departments, over and above what we apportion for regular activities.

A: (RC) - As regards what fraction - the total was 45 kT. The fission trigger was equivalent to that of the fission device.

Q: Can these nuclear warheads be fitted on Prithvi and Agni?

A: (K) - The missiles we have can carry any type of warhead, conventional or nuclear, depending on the weight, size and environmental specifications. The missiles are only carriers, they can even carry flowers.
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Post by ramdas »

But eventually, it is the DAE that has to deliver the goods. A throrough reorganization seems necessary. At least from what information is available in open sources, other NWS have more than one team involved in weapons design, facilitating a peer-review process. The same is necessary for DAE. Weapons designers in other countries are full time weapons design people.

In DAE's case, RC himself worked in several areas and did some (well cited) work in EOS at pressures corresponding to a chemical implosion . A more full time dedicated team is needed for this kind of work. Not people seeing weapons design as a passing interest. Of course, supporting scientific groups and facilities should always be available for consulting.
Moreover, at least two weapons design teams are necessary to facilitate intense peer review.

Establishing due scientific process is more important than testing immediately. Of course, testing has to be done once the organizational changes happen.

Looks like Japan with its scientific (in particular LIF) facilities can design a more credible TN at this point than us unless we change the situation.
Last edited by ramdas on 25 Apr 2008 11:09, edited 1 time in total.
ramana
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Post by ramana »

Once the separation occurs then it will get more dedicated.
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Post by Katare »

ramdas wrote:
Ramdas, I am a strong supporter of "testing" and "no deal", but the deal is not just about the uranium alone. It is about removing general restrictions on high tech transfers (even old and rusty chips need to be smuggled in now a days) and has implications to our manufacturing sector, if we ever dream of catching up to the Chinese.
Catching up with the Chinese possession of a thermonuclear deterrent is more important than catching up economically. After all, once the nation possesses the ultimate weapon in enough numbers, it can retain its sovereignity even if it needs to have old and rusty computer chips smuggled in. Thermonuclear weapons even of "1960's vintage" prevent nations from stepping on our toes . The latest chips or the latest fancy cars and other such "sophistcated" pieces of engineering or having a great high tech sector do not do so. If it is a "question of giving up TN 's forever" VS "giving up ecomonic parity with China forever" we should stick to possessing TN's even if it means giving up ecomomic parity with China forever. Also, self reliant state led economic growth alone counts towards national economic power.
Ramdas,

I say all this without taking anything away from the need for India to test as many devises as it needs and as soon as possible.

That argument (in bold) of yours is hugely misconceived, one dimensional progress or strength doesn't ensure anything IMO. A nation must ensure multidimensional progress which includes brute force, economics, technology, institution, social indicators, arts, sports, politics and what not. Need for one doesn't dilute the need for other.

More often than not a nation or civilization collapses from inside for its own faults, complacency and incompetence.

USSR achieved tremendous successes in the field of technology and weapons but it vanished failing to see that a nation has to stand on multiple pillars. China quickly learned that lesson and changed its model to one that looks at strength comprehensively.

Even in old hindu philosophy society is seen as a body where all four limbs are needed to survive. Just having strong hands (nukes), without strong hips (economics) or modern sword (technology), would not ensure sovereignty.

India must explore and ensure that it achieves parity with P5 in all spheres including nuclear. What it chooses to do and when should only be dictated by its self interests. Nothing comes or should come before national security for any govt.
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