RamaY wrote:To the gurus in this forum:
Would it be possible for India to broker a deal with the key p3 members (US, Russia, France), so that -
Not happening at all. I will let the other gurus explain in detail but basically:
1. India will do another round of say 10 tests to validate the TN and modified bum models. Pakistan can follow india and spend another 10 bumbs from their inventory.
This implies that India would have a credible TN based deterrent. Coupled with A-III, it means flower petal delivery service everywhere. Now let us assume some mullah comes to power in pakiland and sends a bum flying at us. Who do you think India will retaliate against ? Just pakis ? (Hint: Pakis got their bum, with technology gifted by chini while unkil did a wink wink nod nod, so they too are responsible). So it makes sense for Unkil that India does not acquire a credible TN based deterrent.
2. India will sign CTBT after this. I hope this treaty doesnt have any NWS/NNWS distinction. India will stay out of NPT as it still descriminates NWS.
Unkil has not ratified CTBT, why should we sign ? The basic question is, who is CTBT targetted at ? When NPT exists, why do you need CTBT ? The NWS can test all they want, it will not affect the balance of power or the credibility of their deterrent. Non-NWS by the definition of NPT cannot acquire nuclear weapons, so CTBT is moot. Name one prominent country, which has not signed the NPT and it should be made sure that they dont test and acquire credible deterrence ? Any prominent name comes to mind ?
3. To keep unkil quite it can offer to buy 200 F-18s under the MRCA deal. I think $20b is a fair price to avoid the sanctions that follows.
Let us assume that we pay the price and then Unkil sanctions us, keeps the money and doesnt give us the jets. What then ? This is not an unimaginable scenario - look over the border and replace F-18 with F-16.
5. India can pursue the Thoriam path with inputs from the 18 unsafe guarded plants and keep the entire Thoriam IPR to itself.
Uranium prices are through the roof. There are talks about peak oil and coal producing greenhouse gases. The future source of energy (if controlled fusion is not achieved) is thorium. If a country with a booming economy also controls access to and the technology of the most sought after energy source, will Unkil be the sole superpower ?