Admiral David Jeremiah...Jeremiah News Conference - CIA
The identification of the Indian nuclear test preparations posed a difficult collection problem and a difficult analytical problem. Their program was an indigenous program. It was not derived from the US, Chinese, Russian or French programs. It was totally within India. And therefore, there were some characteristics difficult to observe.
Sorry for the late reply.
But these articles are archives from a Pre 1998 assessment, released after the tests. What happened after the failure is a matter of conjecture.
There will never be any credible open source material on this subject, but there are some very funny things that have happened since the tests:
1. The russian strategic forces commander??? was given access to India's Super-computing laboratories immediately after the tests and he was supposed to have expressed his high praise for Indian supercomputing poweress.
2. Why allow an ex KGB man into Dhruva and Cirus? Vladimir Putin is seen standing in BARC with D and C in the background and AK and RC flanking him. Russia gave fuel for Tarapur not for D & C.
3. The International tendency has been of sharing weapons designs / nuclear weapon knowhow as a rule rather as an exception. Sample this:
-USA gives weapon designs to Britain
-Russia gives weapon designs to China
-China gives weapon designs to Pakistan and North Korea
-USA / France gives weapon designs to Israel (Is it too far fetched???)
-Israel and South Africa have a secret test (Vela???) If this is true it might suggest exchange of knowhow.
-Pakistan proliferates to every tom dick and harry with a fistful of dollars: Libya, Iran, NoKo, ??Syria, ??Saudi Arabia.
Who's left here: India.
In view of the above how far fetched is peer review of indian weapons by another advanced nuclear weapons power? Given the confidence with which the missile armoury is surging ahead, mind you if our bombs are heavy, every calculation about range gets thrown out of the window, and we truely have Prithvi-300, Agni 1-700, Agni 2-2500 and Agni 3 MIRV x 3-3500 Km range.
Very correctly you point out that most Indians only know that India has a Bomb and all is well. Suppose we enlighten them of the fact that the H-Bomb was a failure, and we risk being a second rate power in the category of the unmentionable group, I am sure many will accept the pain that will have to be borne by us in the aftermath of any breakthrough testing. India is a proud nation, and in those dark years of the 60s and the 70s, national pride was all that kept this nation going and in one piece.