Future Nuclear Testing: Pros and Cons-1

Arun_S
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Future Nuclear Testing: Pros and Cons-1

Postby Arun_S » 02 Jun 2008 00:58

lakshmic: You will find the following papers interesting that report Laser driven EOS experiments at CAT/Indore and BARC benchmarking against results from HELEN Laser facility at UK AWE (Atomic Weapons Establishment).

CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 82, NO. 2, 25 JANUARY 2002, Equation-of-state studies using laser-driven shock wave propagation through layered foil targets
H. C. Pant†,*, M. Shukla†, V. K. Senecha†, S. Bandyopadhyay†, V.N. Rai†, P. Khare†, R. K. Bhat†, B. K. Godwal# and N. K. Gupta#
†Laser Plasma Division, Centre for Advanced Technology, Indore 452 013, India
#High Pressure Physics Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, Mumbai 400 085,

India Results of laser-driven shock wave experiments for equation-of-state (EOS) studies of gold metal are presented. A Nd : YAG laser chain (2 Joule, 1.06 mm wavelength, 200 ps pulse FWHM) is used for generating shocks in the planar Al foils and Al + Au layered targets. EOS of gold in the pressure range of 9–13 Mbar is obtained using impedance-matching technique. Numerical simulations performed using onedimensional radiation hydrodynamic code supports the experimental results. Experimental data show remarkable agreement with results from studies using the existing standard EOS models and with other experimental data obtained independently using laser-driven shock experiments.

STUDY of matter under extreme pressure conditions is a subject of great interest in several branches of physics, in particular, astrophysics, materials science and inertial confinement fusion research1–3. A proper knowledge of the equation-of-state (EOS) of materials at high pressures is the key requirement for such studies. EOS data4,5 are also an important input to hydrodynamic codes used for the simulations of fission, fusion devices and their effects. Extensive data on materials have been generated using static and dynamic shock-wave techniques6. The range of such data using diamond-anvil cell and two-stage gas gun are limited to 5 and 10 Mbar pressures, respectively5. Theoretical treatment of materials in such compressed states is carried out using solid and liquid state theories7. The current state-of-the-art condensed matter models based on density functional theories, employing generalized gradient approximation for exchange and correlation potentials, have demonstrated their capabilities to predict phase transitions that, in turn, have been confirmed by experiments7. Remarkable agreement between theory and the state-of-the-art experiments has demonstrated beyond doubt that first-principle simulations can be carried out reliably to predict thermodynamic states of the materials up to 10 Mbars8.It is also well known that different variants of Thomas–Fermi–Dirac theory can be used to predict EOS ... ... ... . .... " .... read on


and:

CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 85, NO. 6, 25 SEPTEMBER 2003, Equation-of-state study of copper using laser-induced shocks near 10 Mbar pressure and revalidation of theoretical modelling

M. Shukla†,*, H. C. Pant‡, V. K. Senecha§, V. N. Rai§, P. Khare§§, A. K. Verma†, R. S. Rao†, N. K. Gupta† and B. K. Godwal†

†High Pressure Physics Division, Purnima Labs, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, Mumbai 400 085, India
‡Center for Advanced Technology, Indore 452 013, India
§Laser Plasma Division and §§Magnet Division, Center for Advanced Technology, Indore 452 013, [/url]

India Laser-driven shock wave experiments have been performed to determine equation of state (EOS) of copper using impedance matching technique in the pressure range 8–11 Mbar. A 2J/200 ps Nd : YAG laser beam is used to induce dynamic shocks in aluminium foil (reference material) and Al–Cu layered targets. EOS of copper is obtained at shock pressures of 8.9 Mbar and 10.4 Mbar with a pressure enhancement of ~ 1.66 at Al–Cu interface. The experimental data points are consistent with the predictions of the EOS model based on first principle theory and are also in close agreement with the simulation results obtained using one-dimensional radiation hydro-code MULTI that uses SESAME data tables for EOS and opacity values.

EQUATION-of-state (EOS) of a material at high pressures is an important input parameter for astrophysics, geophysics, inertial confinement fusion and hydrodynamic codes used for the simulation of fission, fusion devices. The EOS data up to 5 Mbar pressure is obtained with high explosive loading facility or using a high-pressure gas gun1. The pressure above 10 Mbar in the past had been obtained from underground nuclear explosions, but these measurements are difficult due to high cost and require large experimental configurations2–4. The efforts in the recent past reveal that laser-driven shock wave technique can be employed for achieving shock pressures of 10–40 Mbar within 15–20% accuracy in the laboratory conditions5,6. Recently, experiments using indirect drive method measures the shock pressure within an accuracy of 3–4% (ref. 7). With these developments it appears that laser-driven shocks can be used for the generation of accurate high-pressure data. These data can be utilized as a testing ground for the first principle theoretical models that is used for generating the EOS data in the pressure region not yet accessible experimentally. In this paper we present the extension of laser-driven shock wave experiments performed at CAT, Indore, to determine the EOS of copper (Cu) between 8 and 11 Mbar using impedance ... ... ... . .... .... read on
Last edited by Arun_S on 09 Jun 2008 02:45, edited 1 time in total.

enqyoobOLD
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Postby enqyoobOLD » 02 Jun 2008 02:12

The answer to "Should India test?" is IMO, "If India decides to test"
The answer to "WHEN should India test?" is "When India decides to test".
The answer to "But India's New Clear Detergent doesnt' Work" is "Yore ugly too and yore momma dresses u ugly".
The answer to "Hu benefits if India tests"" is "Pakistan and China and all others opposed to the advance of Indian technology".

The India-US new clear deal is NOT something that will make indigenous technology development unnecessary. OTC, it will relieve pressure on several fronts and enable the scientists and engineers to focus on the development needed in the strategic sector. Stuff that can be done with commercial sensors etc. in the commercial sector can be done with imported stuff.
But we've been round and round this mulberry tree many times, and we know it's just full of worms.

Arun_S:

Better way to get EOS of stuff at fusion conditions is to send a probe to the nearest open-literature, Dual-Use, NON-NPT-governed, Atmospheric Nuclear Test Facility: Soorya. Note that some ppl are doing that already.

None of this shock-wave stuff needed, and you can run tests on all the elements. You may even be able to rent out room on the craft to the First Pakistani Fedayeen Astronauts who can try to go blow up the Sun.
Last edited by enqyoobOLD on 02 Jun 2008 08:12, edited 1 time in total.

Arun_S
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Postby Arun_S » 02 Jun 2008 07:27

enqyoob's previous post was misunderstood. The following 3 posts responding to it have been removed and the thread reopened.

Pls stick to the topic and follow the scope of the thread as outlined by Shiv in the opening post.

Thank you

-Arun_S {Admin hat on}

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Postby John Snow » 02 Jun 2008 07:31

Phew!! :-?

So back in fussion no fizzures :wink:

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Postby Anujan » 02 Jun 2008 08:15

X-posting Gerard-saar's post from "Nuclear news" dhaaga. Long story short, as I mentioned before, fissile materials stockpile wont be an issue towards testing. Quality of maal also wont have any impact on the yield.

Gerard wrote:The Atomic Genie in India’s Bottle
India's long-delayed fast breeder reactor has military objectives. While the world has been preoccupied with the possibility that Iran is preparing to produce weapons-grade atomic materials, India is probably going to get there first, if it can get its act together, and nobody seems particularly concerned about it.
:rotfl:


lakshmic wrote:SDREs know what they are doing. Unkil knows what SDREs are doing. SDREs are closing down the ration shop (from which they may or may not have stolen atta) to score goodwill from unkil. While in the background SDREs are leaving behind the maal of Bhabha & son's first shop and going to (using arun saar's words) "swatcha-maal" of the second shop. The ration shop maal should last us for 30 years, we would be well into shopping in upscale Reliance supermarket by then. In 4-5 years, we would have returned the ration shop atta and exchanged it for atta from the supermarket. By then we wont have any stories of jugaad like attaching copper fins for cooling .... In a few more years, we will open a third shop dispense with atta and eat rice.


Earlier, I had posted how gun type would work for Uranium but not for Plutonium. Several things about my descriptions we not entirely accurate. Plutonium-239 is not as fissile as uranium, in fact, it emits only about 8 neutrons per second per kg, so you can sleep with a Plutonium pit under your bed and a gun type bum should work. Now, this low a neutron emission should not heat up the pit---but remember the news about Pok-1 where our scientists had to do some jugaad of attaching copper fins to keep the pit cool---why is this so ? Plutonium generated in PHWR are a mix of Plutonium-239 and 240. Pu-240 on the other hand is extremely fissile and if more than 5% will cause pre-detonation in gun type bums and contamination with 240 will cause the pit to be hot. More importantly, all the neutron flux will make the bum itself radio active and the neutron hitting the metal components will dislocate atoms from the crystal structure and cause them to become brittle (wigner effect), one of the reasons why bums age (other reason is that the chemical explosives age).

As a part of our 3 stage program, SDREs are using the Pu from PHWR in FBTR to generate Pu-239 of lower Pu-240 concentration. SDREs are also building a new PFBR. As an aside, one of the Shakthi experimental bums was from "reactor grade plutonium", the more interesting question is "which reactor"
Last edited by Anujan on 02 Jun 2008 08:23, edited 1 time in total.

shiv
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Postby shiv » 02 Jun 2008 08:18

I thought it best to put the old thread away and move on.

No personal attacks on anyone please under the general guideline that everyone is a jackass, a traitor and an incompetent liar including GOI, armed forces and all Indians and everyone who posts on here - so repeating that accusation is pointless. We put away this point as a "given" and state opinions. Everyone's opinion is brahma satya and equal. Nobody gets more or less points for his opinion and there is no sense is breaking one's head trying to bash down an opinion that is contrary to one's own belief.

I am not sure if it was coincidence that ramana asked about cognitive dissonance. Even on an issue such as this any information that is contrary to long held views can cause the anger of cognitive dissonance - so please - let us try and follow a guideline that is followed in a very civilized list that I subscribe to: "Assume goodwill"

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Postby vsudhir » 02 Jun 2008 08:19

deleted OT
Last edited by vsudhir on 02 Jun 2008 21:48, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Anujan » 02 Jun 2008 08:41

vsudhir wrote:lakshmic saar,
Under the Th cycle, Pu-239 is bred. Pu-240 is also created? Also, the input fissile material is again more Pu. So part of the output is rediverted as input? Will need to separate Pu-240 from the output first, then?

vsudhir-saar,
PHWR use natural uranium (mix of U-238 which is inert and U-235 which is fissile). The heavy water slows down the neutrons from U-235, which fissions U-238. Djinns create Pu-239 there, but Pu-239 if it sits there for long also absorbs neutrons to become Pu-240. Now the trick is to not let the Pu-239 sit there for long and extract the Pu-239, but that involves shutting the reactor, pulling out the rods and reprocessing, because the fuel rods themselves accumulate Pu-239. But that cannot be done often.

FBTR on the other hand uses the Pu produced by PHWR, places it in the "core assembly" (in the middle) and has depleted uranium in the radial assembly (in the outside), which absorbs neutrons and becomes Pu-239. Two observations, power generation is by the core assembly and not by the radial blanket (which is just a bunch of SDREs sitting around the fire on a cold night trying to stay warm), so you can remove the radial assembly while the reactor is running, and you can do it often. Madrassa math says that removing the radial assembly every 6 months produces 99% pure Pu-239. So atta from the ration shop is returned in the center for swatcha-maal from the outside.

One point of interest here, SDREs have "uranium enrichment" facility, which in fact might be "uranium de-enrichment" to produce depleted uranium for the radial assemblies.

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Postby SaiK » 02 Jun 2008 09:43

There is as much pro and as much cons.. We can not test candidly now, and we have converted our milky state to curdy state, and asking to milk this nuclear cow again? impossible.

The only way is to make sure no one gets any idea that we tested. If we can do that, then we can test as many as we want.

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Postby sauravjha » 02 Jun 2008 09:47

LakshmiC


thermal neutrons do not "fission U-238" but are captured by it to breed Pu-239.In a PHWR natural uranium containing about 0.7 per cent U-235 is loaded and it is this U-235 which "fissions" . PHWRs have the advantage of being re-fuelled while on-load which is why they make an attractive option for countries with low access to enrichment facilities.

Fast Breeder reactors use "fast neutons" in the MeV range and they have to be loaded with either Pu-239 in the core ( sometimes in a mixed nitrate form) or must contain Highly enriched Uranium. these are required as the fission cross section reduces considerably for high energy neutrons and much higher concentrations of fissile material is required to keep the reactor going.
Last edited by sauravjha on 02 Jun 2008 11:04, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby sauravjha » 02 Jun 2008 09:53

On a different note I am glad that the moderators have opened this thread and shut the previous one , where incessant arguments advanced in the favour of not testing had to be rebutted , to the level of exasperation. it was quite evident that a fair degree of "devil's advocacy" was at play and I think that thread has indeed exhausted all the latent steam in BR's eco-system.

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Postby John Snow » 02 Jun 2008 10:05

Once declarea a nuklear weapon state we dont have to coy about testing.

( I hope you mean covertly test right instead of candidly?)

The only problem is like ssc marks recounting but no reevluation of marks.

The next tests have to be overt completely (to the extent of yields) abot the devices with proof that everything went the way it should. Then declare a moritorium that fits our doctrine! While the testing is going on
our videsh mantri ji (aka FM ji) should repeat the often stated disclaimer, for quality improvement ppurposes this conversation may be recorded, ardhath>> We dont want to drop kaccha bum and contaminate your country, when we do itg we deliver shudd desi maal of desired quality onlee

as to how to get out of the present bind to test

(Paul) Simon says

the problem is all inside your head,she said to me
the answer is easy if you take it logically.

.......

just slip out the back,Jack
make a new plan,Stan
don't need to be coy,Roy
just listen to me
hop on the bus,Gus
don't need to discuss much
just drop off the key, Lee
and get yourself free.


what about cost?
with dollar sliding the way its is does it matter? how much
Last edited by John Snow on 02 Jun 2008 10:14, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby sraj » 02 Jun 2008 10:11

lakshmic wrote:
X-posting Gerard-saar's post from "Nuclear news" dhaaga. Long story short, as I mentioned before, fissile materials stockpile wont be an issue towards testing. Quality of maal also wont have any impact on the yield.

I am not sure the above statement takes into account the whole FMCT bandwagon that has already been set up to roll (at the CD in Geneva where a draft is being discussed).

No doubt it has been put on a temporary pause in view of the political difficulties encountered by this deal.

We should be under no illusion that FMCT will go through in super-quick time the moment this deal is sealed with India (because it is in the P5's interest to freeze everyone's fismat stocks close to current levels).

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Postby Raj Malhotra » 02 Jun 2008 10:41

I think that there will be breakout of testing around 2015-2025 due to ageing weapons of P-5 and the fact that the generation of scientists who did earlier test would be retiring

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Postby sauravjha » 02 Jun 2008 10:51

Pu-240 on the other hand is extremely fissile and if more than 5% will cause pre-detonation in gun type bums and contamination with 240 will cause the pit to be hot. More importantly, all the neutron flux will make the bum itself radio active and the neutron hitting the metal components will dislocate atoms from the crystal structure and cause them to become brittle (wigner effect), one of the reasons why bums age (other reason is that the chemical explosives age).


Pu-240 tends to undergo spontaneous fission . However it must be noted that on being actually struck by a neutron Pu-240 tends to turn into Pu-241 and is "less fissionable" in this sense than Pu-239. It is this Pu-241 which is fissile and generally complements Pu-239 in reactors. weapons designs use +90 per cent Pu-239 as the possibility of "pre-detonation" is considerably reduced and the radioactive decay problem that you have mentioned is also manageable. the possibility of using Reactor grade Plutonium has been much explored and is always a back-up option.


As an aside, separating U-233 bred from Th-232 is easier as "mass separation" is possible. Th-232 and U-233 can actually set up a much more efficient breeding cycle then U-238 and Pu-239. this is in no small measure due to the fact that , U-233 is better than uranium-235 and plutonium-239, because of its higher neutron yield per neutron absorbed.
However, as always there is a catch . Th-232 absorbs a neutron to become Th-233 which quickly beta decays to protactinium-233 and then more slowly to U-233. Pa-233 is a neutron absorber which tends to reduce U-233 yield.

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Postby Sanatanan » 02 Jun 2008 17:36

lakshmic wrote:. . .

FBTR on the other hand uses the Pu produced by PHWR, places it in the "core assembly" (in the middle) and has depleted uranium in the radial assembly (in the outside), which absorbs neutrons and becomes Pu-239. Two observations, power generation is by the core assembly and not by the radial blanket (which is just a bunch of SDREs sitting around the fire on a cold night trying to stay warm), so you can remove the radial assembly while the reactor is running, and you can do it often. Madrassa math says that removing the radial assembly every 6 months produces 99% pure Pu-239. So atta from the ration shop is returned in the center for swatcha-maal from the outside.

. . .



I would think that frequently shutting down (such as once in 6 months) a FBR (PFBR in this case) dedicated to electricity generation, for removal of rods from the blanket may not be quite appropriate. Does the PFBR have on-power refuelling capability similar to the CANDU for manipulating the contents inside the reactor vessel (even if it is limited only to the blanket region)?
Last edited by Sanatanan on 02 Jun 2008 19:12, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby enqyoobOLD » 02 Jun 2008 18:11

JS:
The next tests have to be overt completely (to the extent of yields) about the devices with proof that everything went the way it should.


This hits the central problem with this "testing phor minimum credible deterrence". It does not work, for the same reasons as the fable about the farmer who tried to convince the skeptics that what he had bought was indeed a goat, not a donkey. Further, in this case, "proof" would include giving away too much information that could otherwise be traded for better things (JUST KIDDING! DON'T BAN ME!) like Johny Walker or these days, even a Mercedes.

Of course this would not pose a problem for the guvrmand. A year after the tsunami, the Navy published this news item that said they had developed a complete document on the IN's operations and efforts in responding and rescue etc. Given to all the phoren media. I wrote to the relevant authority in the Navy and explained hu I was (desi citjen etc), and why I wanted this (to write an article on emergency response and the IN's role) etc. Offered to pay for delivery of said document to where I was located in the matrubhoomi.

Got a terse reply to the effect that :P I am sure I can get that through other (phoren) channels, with ophishial complimentj oph IN. Similar situation I suppose operates in new clear detergence.

Anyway, my point is that even this won't do any good as far as stopping the propagandoos. The intent of the propagandoos is
***************
Do:
(a) find out more about Indian capabilities
(b) create internal dissent in Indian defense and destroy public confidence in Indian prospects of defending in case of attack.
(c) induce more testing to destroy any prospects of rapid advancement by India
Enddo.
********************

I assume, like shiv says, that everyone demanding more tests here is well-intentioned, but I submit, influenced by (b).

MUCH better and cheaper course to get recognition as a new clear state is to buy a lot of old freighters, do some superstructure mods using technology from the Jagannath Rath Yatra, and paint big Atim Bum signs on the sides, have foto opportunities of the launching of the New Clear Atim Mijjile Navik Sena, and send these cruising around the world. Oh, and mention that each ship also carries several dummies (I mean warheads, not Admirals) phor Classiphied Security Purposes. LOTS of whisky bottles can he had, from ppl trying to find the Real Ones among the dummies.
Last edited by enqyoobOLD on 02 Jun 2008 18:16, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby Rye » 02 Jun 2008 18:14

enqyoob wrote:
(a) find out more about Indian capabilities


If the new clear threads go around spreading knaalij like they have been doing so far, BRF can take credit for providing assistance on this front.

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Postby sauravjha » 02 Jun 2008 18:18

I assume, like shiv says, that everyone demanding more tests here is well-intentioned, but I submit, influenced by (b).


opening a rather old can of worms here, aren't we? so Indian advancement is totally dependent on not testing and signing on the honey that sugar daddy Sam is dangling for us , eh?


let me tell you this . the equipment sugar daddies want business. and regardless of whether we get the uranium from Niger , Nigeria whatever , they wanna sell their wares . sooner than later deal or no deal , they are gonna find a way of selling their 1000 Mwe babies to us. All we have to do is set up the enrichment facilities. it will be 100 per cent JV onree.

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Postby sauravjha » 02 Jun 2008 18:28

If the new clear threads go around spreading knaalij like they have been doing so far, BRF can take credit for providing assistance on this front.


Believe me, the enemies are phar mor Knaaligible about our capabilities then the erudition that is being displayed at BRF. On the other hand, awareness about nuclear power and weapons needs to be spread far and wide. these are pre-requisites to understanding the contextual environment of the indo-U.S nooklear deal.


None of the posts at BRF say anything about the intricacies of what we have . they go into general issues like reactor physics, MAD , UD , weapons design , history , all of which is open source. However if put in simple english, these can go a long way in building awareness and BRF is doing a truly commendable job there.

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Postby shiv » 02 Jun 2008 20:23

enqyoob wrote:Anyway, my point is that even this won't do any good as far as stopping the propagandoos. The intent of the propagandoos is
***************
Do:
(a) find out more about Indian capabilities
(b) create internal dissent in Indian defense and destroy public confidence in Indian prospects of defending in case of attack.
(c) induce more testing to destroy any prospects of rapid advancement by India
Enddo.


The manner in which India is intertwined with the the global economy is not always apparent on BRF.

A little bird tells me that the aviation grade Aluminium metal block for each LCA is manufactured in only two countries, USA and Phrance and blocks have to be ordered well in advance because the A 380 is hogging up huge amounts of this.

I don't know what CNC milling machines do - but at least some have firangi maintenance technicians crawling all over the place in factories where you and i will not get security clearance to visit.

Of course we can test. we can test right away, but it could mean be bye to those beloved technicians while the machines they maintain will come to a grinding halt. Not that it will matter because those previously booked Al ingots won't show up.

Look at the converse side of the picture.

India gets all this stuff for behaving like a good boy. However, if India gets denied all this (and much else that birds don't tell me about) despite being a good boy and despite not testing - India could then genuinely hold a grudge and go ahead an test, because it would not matter then.

If we want to do "whatever we want" we have to weigh that against the ways in which we get ungli-ed. If we show self doubt and test - the tests will still not be enough. On 200 kt test means zilch for reliability and repeatability. Recall that I was taught on this very forum by gurus that reliability rates need more than one. So if we are really serious we will need to do 20 tests. But just one test is enough to get us sanctions, and that one test will not be enough

Personally - I don't think that is a price I wold like to see India pay just to feel good that we are going to theoretically hit some party with fusion rather than fission.

My personal views.

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Postby enqyoobOLD » 02 Jun 2008 20:26

I am all for spreading knawlidj etc. as long as it is open-literature stuff that illuminates the general public about the general issues, or in the case of tutorial explanations, they stick to civilian nuclear power, and I don't mean civilian in the BakPaki sense. :eek:

Otherwise, whether there is danger in the actual knawlidj or not, the times are such that posting such stuff will invite danger. From many sides. Of many kinds. Correlations of the effects of new clear detergents with the size and configuration of the AtimBum are also not halal in my opinion. Already I learned something very nice about the relation between pit depth and soil nature, and the presence of visible signs from above. I am sure those who plan national-level testing know far more than this, but others planning other things can learn a lot from such things when they are not exactly welcome at places where such things are conveyed. Just an example of something that looks totally innocent, but would not be in most textbooks.

I COULD give a demonstration, with my extensive experience of chit-chat with Pakis and Energizer Bunnies, of how one can get someone here into a heated argument (no lack of easy marks here, obviously) and induce them to post something, however briefly before realization hits, that is really "useful" to the wrong people. But then I don't really want to spend the next 20 years as a guest of any government either, and I tend to be very afraid of surf-boards, water-boards etc. Visits from people who say:
Oh, I wouldn't worry about my (unmarked) car being parked in a Tow Zone, somehow I don't think they'll ticket me
are scary, however innocent one may be, and however sweet and friendly said visitors may be.

It's one thing to be brave and show a total (ignorance) disregard of danger etc. in a good cause, but winning arguments on a web forum seen by all sorts of people does not qualify as such a "good cause". 8)
*************************
Now laws in India are different from those in the US, but often the difference is because the laws have not been revised since 1893 or since Chanakya wrote them down on a stone 1,735,890,987,345,230 years ago.
So it is relevant to see some current discussions on such things, from the US:

[quote]Case Study #3

Name: Dr. Maureen Forest

Department: International Health

Position: Professor and Chair

In Question: Information Exchange

Dr. Maureen Forest is a professor and department chair who frequently works with graduate students. She has been corresponding with a colleague, Dr. Indira Verma, who currently lives in Iran and studied with Dr. Forest at Stanford over ten years ago. Their correspondence involves Dr. Forest’s proposal preparation for a project that would be funded by the National Security Agency about the delivery of health care in war zones. In addition to maintaining a personal friendship, Dr. Forest has relied on Dr. Verma’s recommendations in research efforts that ultimately brought about two awards from NIH. Dr. Verma was a faculty member at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill before having to return to her home in India due to family responsibilities. Dr. Verma is highly trusted by her peers and she is a respected professional with many publications.

Question: Is any of Dr. Forest’s correspondence with Dr. Verma an “exportâ€

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Postby Sanku » 02 Jun 2008 20:42

Is it too much to expect people to use English as opposed to Pinglish on threads outside the Benis thread?

Or did the experience of working with Bakis have rendered some brains completely unable to look at work without the Baki POV prism?

Or does BRF have different standards at work here?

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Postby svinayak » 02 Jun 2008 20:44

shiv wrote:If we want to do "whatever we want" we have to weigh that against the ways in which we get ungli-ed. If we show self doubt and test - the tests will still not be enough. On 200 kt test means zilch for reliability and repeatability. Recall that I was taught on this very forum by gurus that reliability rates need more than one. So if we are really serious we will need to do 20 tests. But just one test is enough to get us sanctions, and that one test will not be enough

Personally - I don't think that is a price I wold like to see India pay just to feel good that we are going to theoretically hit some party with fusion rather than fission.

My personal views.


This is the reason why Hyde Acts are passed. They know that even that is giving too much.

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Postby Sanku » 02 Jun 2008 20:45

shiv wrote:Personally - I don't think that is a price I wold like to see India pay just to feel good that we are going to theoretically hit some party with fusion rather than fission.

My personal views.


You are absolutely right on the money for this; so the discussion must be about (in our limited knowledge and intelligence) on
1) Price
2) Gain

What prices did we pay in 98? What prices will we pay now? Will the AIs actually stop from France?

Yes hitting some one with Fusion vs Fission does not matter. But the yield does and so does the distance at which you can lob the yield.

Are they same?

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Postby HariC » 02 Jun 2008 21:08

**post edited by admin**


enqyoob. - a request. can we ditch the paki pidgin english please? makes reading awfully difficult for people not well versed with that version of english.

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Postby John Snow » 02 Jun 2008 21:19

One 200 kt test means zilch for reliability and repeatability

ekjactly (in N gurus parlance).

I refered to this on the possible
0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 scenario = 0.8145 out come 81% chance

the imagine with one test we have had in POK II ( of that kind yield)

0.85 * 0.85 *.95 *.95 = 0.65 65 % chance

one out of two bums will do the desired tamasha. ( iam giving 85% success in first stage and second 85% in second stage of boosted or fussion bum ) assuming nothing fizzled

Simulations is only haath ki safayee

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Postby enqyoobOLD » 02 Jun 2008 21:22

enqyoob. - a request. can we ditch the paki pidgin english please? makes reading awfully difficult for people not well versed with that version of english.


Excuse me, but this appears to be a frightening request, which only lends credence to the notion that this thread is viewed as some "elite discussion" thread for use by the snooty. That is the first danger signal - people are posting stuff to show how "in" they are into such stuff. Waste of effort, IMO< since there are no women to impress (usernames notwithstanding). Exactly what is so "awfully difficult" to the einsteins discussing intricate nuclear phyiscs here please? :roll: Seriously, please post it and I will explain it (subject to ITAR, EAR, NOSE, EYES etc.)

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Postby shiv » 02 Jun 2008 21:26

Sanku the way I see it (in the absence of micro-level details of the economy) is that nothing can be denied to India forever. They will just be delayed interminably.

A denial regime has a blowback effect on the denier because India an misbehave more in return. Apart from that, India's action in testing will encourage others to test and all those entities will face sanctions - and eventually exporting countries will feel the pinch of not being able to export as much as they used to.

But the question is how much gain is there in going though all this pain?

Some of these questions are gambles.

On a scale of 1 to 10, what is the likelihood of nuclear war between India and the following nations in the next 10 years:

1) Pakistan
2) China
3) USA
4) Russia

Are the chances of India getting into a nuclear war in the next 10 years so high that India must test now? If India tests now or in the next 3 years, how mature an arsenal will we have for that nuclear war we are going to have in the next 10 years? Will testing now make any difference to our arsenal for a nuclear war in the next 10 years?

If testing now is going to help us in a nuclear war between 10 and 20 years from now, what are the chances that we will have such a war in 20 years?

Should India delay its development for 10 to 15 years in order to have better weapons for a possible nuclear war between 10 and 20 years hence?

Should India not gamble in the direction of building a huge arsenal with existing technology while simultaneously trying to defang Pakistan and keep China engaged rather than gamble in the direction that assumes that there is a very high probability of nuclear war in 10-20 years from now for which existing weapons will be inadequate and that india will somehow benefit in that war by testing now and getting bigger yield weapons?

My own answers to these question in my mind are very very clear. I see no reason whatsoever for India to test. If I was asked to vote for or against testing I would vote against. OTOH if some government did test - I would assume that the government has enough knowledge and sense to get the country past a possible mess.

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Postby HariC » 02 Jun 2008 21:27

enqyoob wrote:
enqyoob. - a request. can we ditch the paki pidgin english please? makes reading awfully difficult for people not well versed with that version of english.


Excuse me, but this appears to be a nonsense request, which only lends credence to the notion that this thread is viewed as some "elite discussion" thread for use by the snooty. That is the first danger signal - people are posting stuff to show how "in" they are into such stuff. Waste of effort, IMO< since there are no women to impress (usernames notwithstanding). Exactly what is so "awfully difficult" to the einsteins discussing intricate nuclear phyiscs here please? :roll: Seriously, please
post it and I will explain it (subject to ITAR, EAR, NOSE, EYES etc.)


Thank you :)

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Postby enqyoobOLD » 02 Jun 2008 21:45

IMO, India DOES need "new clear testing" (HariC: There is such a thing as "search engines". We don't want to get too many "hits". So - pls learn Pingreji - the Language of The Future) - tons of it. India needs testing that can DETECT fijjile material at the borders, airports, and in the mohallas and madarssas and truckstops and bazaars and places of worship and train stations and on trains and in bicycle stands. The problem is absolutely terrifying. Right now, maybe 7 out of 15 explosive devices placed on bicycles in a major Indian city get detected (Jaipur). Or maybe it was 7 out of 250, the others were just not set to go off, just placed in certain places and removed later.

Doesn't this scare you? Do you doubt that the people who did THAT testing are connected to those who have access to other kinds of explosive devices? Don't you think these guys are also doing Probability studies like what Jsnow showed above?

Don't you think there is a desperate urgency to keep improving our ability to detect such things in time? When the Detection Probability gets below, say, 5%, don't u think these guys will consider their (large) investment to be pretty solid in probability of success?

One of the benefits of not rushing in with the OTHER kind of tests, is that one can get cooperation to set up the NEEDED sensors and testing. Any number of Pokhran -IIIs etc, will not prevent the really needed kind of testing and detection.

The Detergents equation is of course uncertain. But this is not because of any uncertainty that India HAS new clear detergents - POK-2 proved that beyond any doubt. The technical ability to launch missiles of various range is also NOT subject to any doubt.

What IS doubtful, is the will to respond with new clear weapons, to a WMD attack on the Indian population. Fast. At the right targets like HQ in Islamabad, not some piddly PakArmy camp across the LOC.

Do YOU believe that the present GOI (or what survives of it after a new clear bicycle attack) will launch such retaliation BEFORE all the international hoopla about Mass Collateral Damage takes hold with a UN-mandated ceasefire?

I don't. THAT is the detergents problem. So with this huuuge problem of detection on our hands, and desperately needing all the technology help we can get ASAP, and unable to publicly announce this because of the certainty of mass panic, riots etc, should India waste resources, and cut off its nose to spite its face, so to speak, by going and doing "live testing" of more new clear weapons, because we are "angry" that 5 decades of "good behavior" have not earned pats on the head and more goodies?

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Postby prashanth » 02 Jun 2008 22:00

shiv wrote:Sanku the way I see it (in the absence of micro-level details of the economy) is that nothing can be denied to India forever. They will just be delayed interminably.

...................................................................................................
My own answers to these question in my mind are very very clear. I see no reason whatsoever for India to test. If I was asked to vote for or against testing I would vote against. OTOH if some government did test - I would assume that the government has enough knowledge and sense to get the country past a possible mess.



I share your opinion Dr.Shiv. If India wants to test then must go in for full fledged testing, ie around 30 to 40 tests in one season. Testing just 3 or 4 weapons will make sure that we will be arguing about the yields for decades to come.
Further India cannot go in for full fledged testing programmes in the near future. So it makes no sense to test few devices now and land in pickle.

In a previous post ( now deleted) I had mentioned about using tactical nukes effectively. So, subcritical tests are the only way to go, it appears.
I

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Postby ramdas » 02 Jun 2008 22:10

Arunji,

Are you saying that 10^14-10^16 Watt/cm^2 intensity, rather than overall power is what we require for a credible LIF to understand the physics of the secondary ?

That would be a low cost way of getting a credible thermonuclear deterrent...

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Postby ramana » 02 Jun 2008 22:42

Er its not like that. One can convince yourself and browbeat other SDREs invoking mantras and legislations/acts but the one to convince are those outside the maya. And the only way to that is to proof what you got before you need it.

lakshmic wrote:a. Fusion weapons are a myth. Usually the energy released by a TN weapon is somewhat like 2:4:1:6 (2 part from primary, 4 parts fusion, 1 part "spark plug"---a mini fission weapon in the center of the fusion fuel container and 6 parts from the irradiation of the U-238 casing and tamper. The ratio is of course representative and varies based on the designer's design.

Now, if the SDREs used an "inert" casing and tamper, thereby stopping with fission primary and fusion secondary, essentially the bum's yield can be doubled with the same setup, with simply a blanket of more U-238 around the casing and without touching the configuration or the amount of the fusion fuel. This seems plausible, because most of the dirty fallout is because of the U-238 and SDREs probably dispensed with it to contain the yield as well as the fallout.

Assuming perfect world (nobody is traitor, everybody is competent), RC's confidence about doubling or even tripling the yield may come from this fact. So essentially SDREs may be able to make 150 K T T N weapons of almost identical designs.


So if you use the ratio on the stated design of 43 +/- 3 k t, what do you get and is the part enough to set of an active tamper? and what do you get for the ref 200 k t weapon?

I know these are notional and different folks use different ratios but it could give back of envelope info.


And there is many a twist betwixt the cup and the lip. Hence the full proofing required.

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Postby HariC » 02 Jun 2008 22:43

**edited by admin**

Explanation on page 2 - shiv

At the very least will the admin who edited it atleast post an explanation as to why it was edited out? and why it is forbidden to post what i posted?

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Postby Anujan » 02 Jun 2008 23:35

ramana wrote:So if you use the ratio on the stated design of 43 +/- 3 k t, what do you get and is the part enough to set of an active tamper? and what do you get for the ref 200 k t weapon?
I know these are notional and different folks use different ratios but it could give back of envelope info.
And there is many a twist betwixt the cup and the lip. Hence the full proofing required.


Ramana-saar,
I dont know. I have never been involved in bum design and more importantly, there is absolutely no information in any open source venue (physics journals etc) which takes an explosion, breaks it down into constituents. Even basic information like a a graph between radiation flux density and time (for an atmospheric test) is not published anywhere. (Using this, we can make back of envelope about how much U-238 can be set off using this radiation and neutron flux)

There is 0 information about the SDRE bum. Fissile fraction of the pit ? (percent Pu-239), weight/dia of pit ? What boost gas ? How much boost gas ? How much fusion fuel ? burn efficiency ? Primary yield ? Atleast this info is needed to do back of envelope calculation. Your article in BRM is beautifully written and I am convinced that S1 was ~45Kt. Beyond that, everything is pure speculation. The things I like speculating about are

a. Why this interest in "reactor grade" maal ? Ostensibly we have enough to make bums in the near future. Making many bums has its own dynamic about dispersion, delivery, stewardship, security, command and control and by the time that is set up, we will have more maal. Having 1000 bums and one mijjile with 2 SDREs trained to fire it doesnt make any sense. Furthermore, looking at the seperation plan, the two reactors which stick out (which unkil bickered about safeguards very early on) are FBTR and PFBR. By "reactor grade" which reactor ?

b. Are SDREs serious about U-233 bum ?

Sanatanan wrote:I would think that frequently shutting down (such as once in 6 months) a FBR (PFBR in this case) dedicated to electricity generation, for removal of rods from the blanket may not be quite appropriate. Does the PFBR have on-power refuelling capability similar to the CANDU for manipulating the contents inside the reactor vessel (even if it is limited only to the blanket region)?

Sanatanan-saar,
I think you will find this interesting (Arun_S saar, thanks for the link, you migh also find this interesting). Ofcourse take it with a bucket of salt.

Weapon-Grade Plutonium Production Potential in the Indian Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (with M. V. Ramana), Science & Global Security, Volume 15, No. 2 (2007), pp. 85-105. [ PDF ] A pretty talk with nice pictures is here

Or see some nice pictures from the source http://www.bhavini.nic.in/reports.asp

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Postby Prem » 02 Jun 2008 23:55

HariC wrote:
enqyoob wrote:
enqyoob. - a request. can we ditch the paki pidgin english please? makes reading awfully difficult for people not well versed with that version of english.


Excuse me, but this appears to be a nonsense request, which only lends credence to the notion that this thread is viewed as some "elite discussion" thread for use by the snooty. That is the first danger signal - people are posting stuff to show how "in" they are into such stuff. Waste of effort, IMO< since there are no women to impress (usernames notwithstanding). Exactly what is so "awfully difficult" to the einsteins discussing intricate nuclear phyiscs here please? :roll: Seriously, please
post it and I will explain it (subject to ITAR, EAR, NOSE, EYES etc.)


Thank you :)


We are being manipulated and loosing the proud claimed edge. In BR now we hear what happened in 98 and not what will or could happen tomorrow or 2028. I am not a science man but can recognize " Akhara" of any shape, size as well remote conrolled Pehalwans. Argumentative Indians ... Hmmm :cry:

Just read Shiv's post and agree with his thought process 399% . The immediate threat to India has social, economic and political dimention and ought to be handled as priority. Nuke war wont happen overnight for a while so no need to rush like a Jihadi .
Last edited by Prem on 03 Jun 2008 01:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby enqyoobOLD » 03 Jun 2008 00:04

Prem: I would argue (being R-Guman-tative) that new clear bum testing is a has-been topic, best left in 1998. What was demonstrated then needs to go into limited-edition production, and now the delivery vehicles are also coming into production.

Time to move on. Look to the Bright Future. Wear dark glasses, of course. 8)

Actually the thing that scare me most of all is the Djinn Predator (c P.E.N.I.S. Thread for the latest on those). Delivery direct to kitchen or bedroom or basement (4 those who prefer to live there). Payloads are now large enough to be, say, artillery shells, IOW, tactical new clear AtimBums. Low-altitude flight has been demonstrated, probably terrain-hugging possible. So a fleet of these comes in, and they can either wipe out 20 cities, or take out the top 250 buildings that are used in Command and Control of the nation.

Which Hydrogen bum or ICBM will stop that?

Or they may have a few djinns hovering around for hours, ready to launch at any large missiles that lift off.

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Postby ramana » 03 Jun 2008 00:10

Thanks Lakshmic. No more on that from me.

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Postby Sanku » 03 Jun 2008 00:55

shiv wrote:My own answers to these question in my mind are very very clear. I see no reason whatsoever for India to test..


Well Shiv you are entitled to your opinion -- however I must say with all due respects that your argument is rather troubling -- it sounds eerily like "why I don't need to wear seat belt argument"

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hey what are the chances of an accident? And if they are not high I cant eat too much before driving because the seat belt constricts me. I need to eat more since I am SDRE onlee. So no seat belts I anyway have a airbag.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Whether the nuclear war will happen or not is a survival gamble -- so if we test and we are wrong; fine we will pay a price but survive? Unfortunately if you are wrong and there will be war and we are not ready I wont be around to say I told you so. Since I am pretty much sitting on TARGET NUM ONE here.

So if you ask me chose between LCA aluminum and reliable bums what will I chose?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Which bring us to the next part of your statement
Should India not gamble in the direction of building a huge arsenal with existing technology while simultaneously trying to defang Pakistan and keep China engaged rather than gamble in the direction that assumes that there is a very high probability of nuclear war in 10-20 years from now for which existing weapons will be inadequate and that india will somehow benefit in that war by testing now and getting bigger yield weapons?


I am also a little dismayed by all the fuzziness here -- Will testing "some how" guarantee better weapons? Are existing weapons adequate?

I am sure no will go testing because I want it -- no ones taking a vote on it -- however I am quite sure that the answers to the above are not so fuzzy.

A test is meaningful only if it helps in making better weapons!! If not why do it? I dont see any reason to go down that path of argument.

Are existing weapons inadequate? Again the basic premise is yes; if not again this entire discussion is pointless.

Is there a high probability of war? No but if we dont have a suitable defence; then there certainly will be. (I can take the same logic you use to make guns vs butter argument and ask the IA be halved) As I said the cost of getting it wrong here are not trivial.

Whats the cost? Despite all the "cost is too high" statements over and over again ad nasueam have the folks who think the cost is high actually put together ONE logical post outlining the total cost in 98 and its extrapolations with reasons thereof?

With such level of fuzziness; we can all vote on way or the other it wont matter a whit since we just dont know and we may save ourselves the trouble and note vote. On that topic since we are never likely to know anything for sure we might as well call a moratorium on all the Nuke discussion and extrapolate it further too.


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