Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

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Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ramana » 18 Jun 2008 22:48

Last page of previous thread.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby putnanja » 19 Jun 2008 01:13

Congress-Left near break-up on nuclear deal

New Delhi: A denouement of the crisis between the United Progressive Alliance government and the supporting Left parties on the Indo-U.S. civilian nuclear deal is near at hand.

Following the postponement of the UPA-Left coordination committee meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, the two sides seem to be preparing for a parting of ways. This means withdrawal of Left support to the minority government and the fall of the government. If that happens, a November-December 2008 general election is virtually guaranteed.

A few hours before the coordination committee was to meet, the government’s main negotiator, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, and the Left parties agreed on a postponement to June 25. This happened after the Left leaders learnt that the Manmohan Singh government had decided to go ahead with the nuclear deal.

Later in the evening, the Left leaders reiterated their position that “the government should not proceed to seek approval of the text of the India specific safeguards agreement from the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.” The statement _ signed by Prakash Karat (CPI-M), A.B.Bardhan (CPI), Debabrata Biswas (Forward Bloc), and T.J.Chandrachoodan (RSP) _ noted that “the text [of the draft of the safeguards agreement] has not been made available to the committee. As far as the Left parties are concerned, they have not been able to form any opinion on the text of the safeguards agreement.”

However, according to a senior prime ministerial aide, the Left had never formally asked that it be shown the “frozen text.”

In their statement, the Left leaders recalled that “on November 16, 2007, it was decided that talks with the IAEA secretariat would be held for working out the text of the safeguards agreement. Thereafter, the outcome of the talks will be presented to the committee for its consideration before it finalises its findings. The findings of the committee will have to be taken into account before proceeding further.”

The Left stand could not have come as a surprise to the government. After the prolonged discussions between Mr. Mukherjee and Mr. Karat meeting on Monday evening, the government could not have had the slightest doubt about the CPI(M)’s and the Left’s firm opposition to letting the 123 agreement to go forward. Although the ostensible reason for seeking a postponement was Mr. Mukherjee’s pre-occupation with the visiting Syrian President Assad, the government was disinclined to prolong the dialogue with the Left unless it produced a “final decision” in favour of the deal.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh went on Wednesday morning to Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s residence and is believed to have discussed the implications of the Left’s unchanged position.

According to informed sources, the Prime Minister _ who some weeks ago gave the impression that he was reconciled to the demise of the nuclear deal _ has once again taken the stand that he cannot continue in office if he cannot go forward with the deal. He is scheduled to travel to Japan next month to attend the G-8 summit and would like to go there without any uncertainty about his government’s intentions on the nuclear deal.

The Congress managers have begun to sound the leaders of the ruling party’s UPA allies about the political implications of breaking with the Left parties on this issue. In the evening, Mr. Mukherjee called on Ms. Gandhi.

According to Congress sources, the government could announce in a day or two its intention to go to the IAEA Board of Governors with the safeguards agreement it has negotiated with the agency’s secretariat.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby John Snow » 19 Jun 2008 01:28

Ah han, the days of Mir Jaffer are all over Nai Delli

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Rangudu » 19 Jun 2008 01:41

Mir Jaffer fits the Commies more than anyone else. Or maybe we should use Ming Jaffer?

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby enqyoobOLD » 19 Jun 2008 01:42

[quote]What if the nuclear deal is signed - say in 3 months time.
What will happen to India (as a consequence of the deal in)
1) 10 years
Nothing much outwardly, since not a watt of new power generation will have come on line.
2) 20 years
200,000,000 more internet users will be able to get on the internet because of new capacity installed in anticipation of new power plants coming on line. They will be loudly proclaiming that India has all the power generation capacity that she needs, no need for nuke power plants.
3) 50 years
Since everyone will be using the Abdul Enqyoob Model 777 micro-cold-fusion power plants in their pocket brains (no one will be using the old organic brains that are so slow and error-prone, come on! :roll: ) and communicating by cellular telepathy links using "green tooth" they will have no recollection of any new clear deal etc. But the Indian People's Liberation Party government will lobotomize anyone who says that India is too commie-Paki etc. so there will no need for internet forums, since the govt view can be seen in holographic form in Karat Square (former site of the Red Fort, near the Beijing Olympic Memorial Stadium in Brindi (formerly New Delhi). There may be some undercurrents of rumors regarding the subterranean dungeons in the Chairman Hu Archipelago (formerly Andaman islands) where some yindoo nationalist conspiracy theory vendors and suspected BRF postors are rumored to be dumped for the past 45 years.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby putnanja » 19 Jun 2008 01:48

N-deal: Congress, Left head for showdown

A scheduled meeting between the UPA and the Left to discuss the Indo-US nuclear deal was on Wednesday postponed to June 25 even as both the Congress and the Left parties hardened their respective stands on the issue.

Soon after the postponement, the four Left parties accused the government of committing breach of trust by not showing them the full draft of the India-specific safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

On the other hand, Congress leaders indicated that the party was ready to take a “political call” on going to the IAEA after taking the sense of the Left’s mind in the June 25 meeting.

Ultimatum to Left
Highly-placed Congress sources, rubbishing the official reason given for the postponement of the discussions as engagements of External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee due to the visit of the Syrian President, said the Left had been informed about the government’s determination to go to the IAEA and asked to take a final position on June 25.“We have told them (the Left) we want to go to the IAEA. It is not negotiable. We will try to convince them. If they are not convinced, we will have to decide,” the Congress sources said, hinting that the June 25 meeting would be the “final one”. “If the Left continues to oppose, we have to take a political call,” they said.

The Left leaders, meanwhile, did not lose time in letting their displeasure known. In a strongly worded statement, they alleged that the Congress never showed the full IAEA text to the Communist leaders despite agreeing to such a pre-condition. At the sixth meeting of the UPA-Left committee held on November 16, 2007, it was decided that the outcome of IAEA talks would be presented to the committee for its consideration and the committee’s findings will have to be taken into account before proceeding further.

But in the seventh and eighth sessions of the UPA-Left committee in March and May 2008, only some of the features were discussed, instead of making the whole text available to the committee.

Consequently, the Left parties are unable to form any opinion, the four Communist parties said in the statement, advising the government not to proceed with IAEA approval process.

The Congress is believed to have told the Left that the UPA government should be allowed to go ahead with the IAEA and NSG discussions, even if it opposed the 123 Agreement with the US, as their conclusion would
allow India to go for similar deals with countries like Russia and France, which it has no apparent objection to.

DIFFERENCES PERSIST
*UPA-Left panel meet scheduled for Wednesday put off.
*Congress tells Left about the government’s determination to go to IAEA.
*Party asks Left to take a final position.
*Left cries betrayal by Congress as the full text of the IAEA pact has been hidden from it.
*Cong says if the Left does not say yes, it will take a political call.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ramana » 19 Jun 2008 01:49

Google cache

I think the folks can drop the fake language and diversionary posts and others cant blame BRF for stopping the deal.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby putnanja » 19 Jun 2008 02:03

Who thought the UPA govt would have b@lls to go for the deal? It would be interesting to see what other partners like NCP, DMK, RJD etc say. Lalu and Pawar had earlier said that the government was more important. With elections anyway just an year away, may be a few months wouldn't matter much.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby putnanja » 19 Jun 2008 02:18

Is it end-deal?

Countdown Begins: You can’t go to Vienna, says Left, leaving UPA with only two options: either go for broke or give in, last a full term; next meeting June 25

New Delhi, June 18: What the Congress kept delaying finally happened today: its moment of reckoning has come, after the Left made it clear it would not let the Government go to Vienna to confirm the safeguards agreement, the key first piece in the operationalisation of the Indo-US nuclear deal.

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The party’s top brass went into a huddle at 10, Janpath faced with perhaps the toughest choice since they took charge four years ago: give in to the Left and freeze the Indo-US nuclear deal to keep the government alive and a line with the Left open in an election year or seize the historic opportunity and stamp the party’s commitment to the “national interest.”

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who spoke to Congress President Sonia Gandhi on the phone, was learnt to have argued in favour of going ahead with the deal after the Left issued a statement that it was of the “firm opinion” that “the government should not proceed to seek approval of the text of the India-specific safeguards agreement from the Board of Directors of the IAEA.”

This Left statement came a few hours after the government deferred today’s UPA-Left meeting to June 25 as External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s discussions with CPM general secretary Prakash Karat on Monday and Tuesday failed to make any headway. The Left also said it did not get the full text of the agreement. Official sources said that it had been conveyed to the Left that sharing the entire text would be a “breach of faith” as in the IAEA system, “an agreement is not an agreement” until it’s taken to the Board of Governors.

CPM Politburo member Sitaram Yechury had called on Congress President Sonia Gandhi last night to convey the Left’s decision that it was prepared to pull the rug if the government went to Vienna.

In the evening, Sonia Gandhi, her political secretary Ahmad Patel, Pranab Mukherjee and Defence Minister A K Antony weighed the government’s options. They were understood to have been unanimous that going ahead with the deal was in the national interest given that it ended India’s nuclear isolation and would help address a growing economy’s energy needs and the severe shortage of fuel across the country’s nuclear installations.

But the discussion within the party has invariably turned to the compulsions of politics in an election year, the “risk of an early election” especially at a time when inflation is creeping towards double digits.

One of the views proffered was whether it was worth sacrificing the government when it was not even clear if the deal would become a reality through the different stages at the IAEA and the NSG. For, if the UPA proceeded to the IAEA, the Left was set to reduce it to a minority government, which would anyways undermine its legitimacy to ink the 123 agreement. Another view was that once the IAEA agreement and the NSG exemption are in place, the “momentum” of the deal — for then it would have gone from being an Indo-US agreement to one with over 40 countries — would push it over any obstacles.

While the Congress is apprehensive of the government being reduced to a minority, CPI General Secretary A B Bardhan suggested that the Left would not vote against the government if the BJP were to move a no-confidence motion against it. “Why should we vote? Minority Governments have existed in the country in the past,” he told The Indian Express when asked whether the Left will vote against the government with the BJP.

CPM sources said that a minority government cannot ink a major international agreement like this — a point that even Pranab Mukherjee has made earlier — and the nuclear deal would be “effectively dead” if the government became a minority.


After over an hour-long discussion, Congress leaders arrived at a decision to take all UPA partners on board before making or breaking the nuke deal at the UPA-Left meeting on June 25. The UPA constituents were cautious in their reaction even as they supported the government’s stance. When Mukherjee telephoned RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav today, the latter was said to have said that the deal was in the national interest adding that it would be better if UPA and the Left stayed together.

“I am hopeful that this issue would be sorted out despite stiff opposition by the Left parties. Not only the Left parties but everybody in the UPA is concerned about the national interest. The issue does not pose any threat to the UPA government,” LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan told The Indian Express.

DMK leader T R Baalu also called on Sonia Gandhi at 10, Janpath from where he left for the CPM office to meet Karat. “It is in everybody’s interest, in the interest of the nation that the government should not not fall on this issue,” Baalu told reporters when asked if the government should be sacrificed for the deal. “We want everybody on board, the UPA constituents as well as the Left,” he added.

Deal timetable: Why Yes/No needs to be decided this month

India’s best chance to revive international momentum on the nuclear deal is during the PM’s visit to Japan on July 7-9 July for the G8 Summit. Even if the UPA decides to go ahead, it faces a tough timeline for which a political push will be needed from US President George W Bush. In the best case scenario, the timetable would be somthing like this:

• Singh meets leaders from France, Russia, China, UK, Japan, Germany, South Africa, Brazil (all key NSG members) at G8; gets Bush to put his weight behind the deal as special meetings of IAEA Board and the NSG would have to be called.

• India completes formalities with IAEA, hopes Board of Governors will call special meeting in July.

• Special meeting of NSG convened immediately so that US can formally propose exemption for India. NSG will take at least two months, if not more, as many members have domestic non-proliferation laws and will need to discuss matters internally.

• Goal: US makes a Presidential determination and 123 goes to US Congress before it breaks up in September. This is vital as “fresh matters” not usually introduced during lameduck session in November (election month).

• Indications that Democrats would prefer Bush Administration to clear the deal; chances that 123 cleared in lameduck session.


It is turning out similar to how an article a few months back had predicted. Left withdraws support but won't participate in no-trust vote. GoI goes ahead and signs the deal. Left can say that they opposed it and cong can claim the opposite. Saves face for both without anyone appearing to buckling under pressure. I don't remember who had written that article though.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby enqyoobOLD » 19 Jun 2008 02:21

Then again, this may be like FINALLY AND FIRMLY deciding to go to the railway station as the train is pulling out of the station.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ramana » 19 Jun 2008 02:26

I think the weak posture was a ploy all along to let the others think that they needed the consensus. Their main achievement was this capping agreement. The whole raisin to come to power was for this. Braudel says that India was self conquered. Now we know what he ment.

As to the opposition(BJP) they wont and cant do a thing. The crucial thing is if the INC are Well-off Modern Indians(WMI) of whom DIE is a sub-set, the others are well-Off Traditional Indians(WTI). The key is both are Well-off so wont do anything to stop the gravy train. The Left hopefully will get rollered now thanks to uncle, just as Nanda Kishore let in the East India company to roll the Bengal rulers.

Now do you see why farsighted leaders chose obscure gifted individuals to revive India periodically: Chankaya-Chandragupta, Vidyaranya-Hakka Bukka Rayas, Ramdas- Shivaji, and Tirumala Iyengar - Wodeyars and Gokhale- MK Gandhi.

Offcourse MKG choosing JLN was the mis-step for it brought back dynasty and courtier politics, the bane of Dilli Raj.

One question what if India goes thru all these steps and US Congress decides it wont go ahead?Note I didnt say the US Admin.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ramana » 19 Jun 2008 02:34

Pioneer, 19 June 2008

US should offer N-deal to Pakistan

Stephen P Cohen
Pakistan could receive American support for its civilian nuclear programme in exchange for greater assurances regarding the security of its nuclear assets and technology

I have written about Pakistan since the mid 1960s, visited it regularly since 1977 and have written two books on Pakistan: The Pakistan Army (1985) and The Idea of Pakistan (2004). I dealt with the Pakistan nuclear weapons programme during my two years as a member of Secretary Schultz's Policy Planning Staff in the Department of State. Some aspects of the Pakistani nuclear programme can only be discussed in classified format, but there is enough publicly available material to come to several conclusions about its security and safety.

Pakistan used to be an important state because of its assets, but it is now important because of its problems. I am sure Senators are aware of Pakistan's past reputation as a moderate Muslim state, but it has become virulently anti-American, it was the worst proliferator of advanced nuclear and missile technology and it continues to harbour -- partially involuntarily -- extremists and terrorists whose dedicated mission is to attack the United States.

Pakistan's nuclear capabilities present at least four challenges to American policy:
There is a small but real possibility of the next India-Pakistan crisis escalating to nuclear levels.

Pakistan may decide, as a matter of state policy, to extend a nuclear umbrella (or engage in nuclear sharing) with one or more Middle East (West Asian) states, especially if Iran acquires a nuclear device.

There is a hard-to-quantify risk of nuclear theft. Pakistan has a home-grown personnel reliability programme, but even this could be circumvented in a determined conspiracy.

There is some small chance that should Pakistan unravel, that its nuclear assets will be seized by remnant elements of the Army for political, strategic, or personal purposes.

While nuclear proliferation or nuclear theft should not be the sole, or even the determining element in America's relationship with Pakistan, some of these are frightening scenarios. Even the relatively benign possibility of Pakistan providing a deterrent force to states that feel threatened by Iran raises the possibility of a fresh round of near-nuclear crises in West Asia, perhaps involving Israel.

The American policy paradox is that we want many things from Pakistan, but that we cannot directly address Pakistan's inability to deliver. We want Pakistan to cooperate on terrorism, we want it to normalise with India, we want to ensure that it will not proliferate nuclear technology, we want it to democratise, and we want it to transform its domestic order by 'normalising' the FATA.

Even if Pakistan wanted to do some or all of these things, it is not certain that it has the capability to do them. So, no matter how much money we pour into Pakistan, we cannot expect full compliance. We must pick and choose among our policy goals.

In the case of nuclear security, we should go beyond encouraging better safeguards. Within the limits of American law, we are providing technologies to Pakistan to help secure their systems, and it may be that China has also done so.

Beyond this, the United States should also consider a criteria-based nuclear 'deal' with Pakistan as a way of encouraging them to limit and secure their existing nuclear weapons. Pakistan could receive support for its civilian nuclear programme in exchange for greater assurances regarding the security of its nuclear assets and technology, and transparency regarding past leakages.

Finally, we should marginally increase our engagement in India-Pakistan relations. The Pakistan Army still regards India as its main threat, and nuclear weapons as its main defence. We need to address their chief incentive to acquire more and bigger nuclear weapons.

Short-term measures regarding terrorism and nuclear technology should not get in the way of long-term strategies to stabilise Pakistan. The US should devote as much attention to shoring up Pakistan's broken institutions and helping Pakistanis resolve their permanent domestic political crisis as it devotes to terrorism and nuclear issues. For if we fail to do the former, the latter will certainly become more acute.

Fortunately, we are not alone in our concern over Pakistan's stability as well as its ability to cooperate along a number of dimensions. To the degree possible, we should consult with other important countries that share our interest in a stable Pakistan. These include Saudi Arabia, China, India, Afghanistan, the major EU powers and Japan.

While the Saudis and Chinese are not interested in advancing democracy, they certainly want a stable Pakistan, and while India does not want a strong Pakistan, it does not want to see it fail. Our Pakistan policy should be framed by a regional policy that seeks to stabilise relations between Pakistan and its neighbours, India and Afghanistan.

We also need to make our support for Pakistan more effective. We have poured many billions of dollars into Pakistan, but as in the past, we have not done a good job of linking aid, loans, and grants to specific policy goals. We should stovepipe our aid, linking it to performance on those areas we judge to be most important. In addition, the aid process must be far more transparent.

Finally, we should be aware that Pakistan may yet fail comprehensively. The state has failed in bits and pieces over the last twenty-five years, and civil war, separatism, economic collapse, and the rise of a truly authoritarian leader are all possible futures. Pakistan should not be written off as a failed state, but if it cannot take advantage of this second 'last chance' then the future will be grim. American policymakers should not be taken by surprise.

-- The writer is noted strategic affairs analyst and senior fellow at Brookings Institution, Washington, DC. This has been excerpted from his recent testimony before the US Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs


Now that UPA has decided to sign the deal he is right. The need theri own Hyde Act to be called Obama Act.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby putnanja » 19 Jun 2008 02:36


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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby RamaY » 19 Jun 2008 02:51

Is it end-deal?

Lefties do not want GOI to go to NSG because, it would force China to show its card at NSG... which is, AGAINST India centric exemption... so they are using their proxy to do their work.. and china looks good...

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Tilak » 19 Jun 2008 03:06

Govt can't give IAEA safeguards draft to Left: Sibal
Press Trust Of India
New Delhi, June 18, 2008
Last Updated: 23:20 IST(18/6/2008)

Government on Wednesday ruled out giving to the Left the draft of the India-specific IAEA safeguards agreement in connection with the Indo-US nuclear deal but asserted that all their queries on this subject have been "answered."

"It is not possible to give them (Left) the (safeguards) text. We have answered all their queries," Union Science Minister Kapil Sibal told TV channels.

Sibal also discounted reports suggesting that the UPA government has decided to go ahead in clinching the IAEA safeguards pact.

"We would like to move forward and go to the IAEA. But we are still in the process of negotiations with the Left. There is no firm decision now (of going to the IAEA)," Sibal said.

The Left leaders have said they have not been given a copy of the safeguards draft and therefore were not in a position to form an opinion.

"In the formal meeting (on June 25), the final position will be taken and we know exactly where we stand and they (Left) know where we stand," he said, adding that the government made a "commitment" that it would not go ahead unless it consulted with the Left.

"As far as the draft is concerned, I think they (the Left) already know the substance of all the questions they had asked. We have given them the substance of what the draft says," Sibal said.

Asserting that the government was committed to take the sense of the House, Sibal hoped there would not be any impediment in the way. "We will persuade our friends", he said voicing hopes that Left will give the free signal.

To a question on the possibility of the Left bringing down the government over the nuke deal, Sibal said "I don't have to speculate on what the Left is going to say... But if a when that situation arises, you will get to know what our position will be".


What "draft", when Paranab Mukherjee has sad that it is already signed and sealed.According to Sibal ("it's Un-Constitutional to pass an internal law"), America can see it, so can IAEA , Sonia and Manmohan. But not the coalition partners. So goes the "Coalition Dharma". Let's wait for the text of IAEA agreement, and the watch self congratulatory lackeys, spin like centrifuges. :lol: :roll:

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Paul » 19 Jun 2008 03:18

Is it such a bad thing that the deal with IAEA is to be signed at this juncture....maybe UPA has decided it cannot let the left do back seat driving with the storm clouds in the himalayas. I see good things for India in the short term....namely the left losing it's influence in Dilli.

Looks like Raju's theory may be coming to fruition.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 19 Jun 2008 03:25

It is not possible to give them (Left) the (safeguards) text.


What this situation needs is a clear warning from Vajpayee or Advani that, if they come into power, they will unilaterally abrogate any agreement signed by a minority government and confiscate any nuclear material transferred under same for use in weapons. That should poison any NSG agreement.

Preemptive delegitimization of MMS's authority and ability to sign international agreements with the threat of radical actions by a future government.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Rangudu » 19 Jun 2008 03:37

Gerard wrote:What this situation needs is a clear warning from Vajpayee or Advani that, if they come into power, they will unilaterally abrogate any agreement signed by a minority government and confiscate any nuclear material transferred under same for use in weapons. That should poison any NSG agreement.

Preemptive delegitimization of MMS's authority and ability to sign international agreements with the threat of radical actions by a future government.


Then any party can do the same with any international agreement in the future.

The only constitutional way to do this is for the Left to withdraw support, call for a vote of no-confidence and then for the BJP and everyone to vote the government out.

Put the money where their mouths are.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Tilak » 19 Jun 2008 03:46

PM for nuclear deal even without Left
19 Jun 2008, 0015 hrs IST,TNN

NEW DELHI: PM Manmohan Singh sought to give another push to the India-US nuclear deal by telling Congress chief Sonia Gandhi that efforts to operationalize the pact should not be called off even in the face of Left opposition. ( Watch )

The PM expressed his views when Sonia met him on Wednesday morning. Singh also told Sonia the party needed to take a view soon because no purpose was served in holding talks with the Left when no progress was being made.

Soon after, the meeting of the UPA-Left panel on the deal was called off by the government in the hope of building greater consensus with allies and wearing down resistance of the Left.

Aware after two meetings of foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee with Prakash Karat that the CPM boss's response to the government's pitch for "de-linking" an IAEA safeguards agreement with the 123 pact would be a resolute "no", the government opted to reschedule the meeting for June 25.

The reason advanced for the rescheduling was the presence of Syrian president Bashar Al Assad, but this did not really wash as such visits are planned months in advance.

With discussions between Karat and Mukherjee failing to yield a breakthrough, government did not see any percentage in formal talks on Wednesday.

Left leaders, however, did not leave any room for hope of any last-minute backpedalling while also making it clear that rescheduling the meeting was the government's decision.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 19 Jun 2008 03:52

Then any party can do the same with any international agreement in the future.

Situation is unique.. this agreement is not your typical MOU relating to animal husbandry between Gabon and India. This impacts on strategic interests and military power.
Does a minority government have the right to bind the state in such a manner?
Did Vajpayee order tests in 1996? He could have.

But you are right... the only constitutional thing is a vote of confidence. Let MMS himself call for one. If he wins it, he has the moral authority to act on behalf of the Indian people.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ramana » 19 Jun 2008 03:59

They are all playing to a gallery. Dont know what their backers expect. The Left implies that they didnt support the deal as they didnt get to look at the paperwork, which is pretty pathetic. The INC wants to imply that the Left is unreasonable and that they went a long way to get to this stage. In the Westminister system the others dont have a role.

Need to see if the Left really makes them a minority govt for their own self interests in India will be at risk.

The others again dont have role except brutus fulmen - (useless thunderbolts).

Gerard, the propriety of a minority grouping committing the nation to such an agreement is mainly with them and no one else. But then what is the propriety of MMS who wasnt elected to the Lok Sabha taking up the PM's office, when JLN clearly wanted the PM to be the people's representative to give the office legitimacy. The UPA has quacks like Sibal to interpret the law as needed.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Rangudu » 19 Jun 2008 03:59

Gerard wrote:Situation is unique.. this agreement is not your typical MOU relating to animal husbandry between Gabon and India. This impacts on strategic interests and military power.
Does a minority government have the right to bind the state in such a manner?
Did Vajpayee order tests in 1996? He could have.


There's a different between a 14 day govt and a 4+ year govt. India is likely to have coalition governments for the foreseeable future, all of them constantly under the risk of being a minority govt. This means that GoI cannot make strategic agreements at all.

This government has every right to do this. If this is such an egregious thing, let the other parties use their constitutional power to vote them out and stop the deal. Put up or shut up.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Tilak » 19 Jun 2008 04:03

Rangudu wrote:Then any party can do the same with any international agreement in the future.


Especially when one party unilaterally decides, when it has no right to.. Hasn't the US reneged on Kyoto, why is it the Indians set the bar so high for themselves ?.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ramana » 19 Jun 2008 04:06

Rangudu, Relax. Dont be shrill. Its not like we have personal stakes here.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Rangudu » 19 Jun 2008 04:08

Tilak,

An elected GoI has every right to do this. For decades after independence it was one party rule and Congressis decided on international treaties. Was that wrong?

Whatever one's views on this deal, the constitution of India must not be circumvented.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Tilak » 19 Jun 2008 04:15

This means that GoI cannot make strategic agreements at all.


Rangudu wrote:Tilak,
An elected GoI has every right to do this. For decades after independence it was one party rule and Congressis decided on international treaties. Was that wrong?
Whatever one's views on this deal, the constitution of India must not be circumvented.


Rangudu saar,

It can't, the least that is required is the the numbers, if not a consensus. It's a constitutional democracy, you cant pick and choose. Till then, strategic agreement's and peace process and surrenders, can wait.IMO

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby svinayak » 19 Jun 2008 04:21

Gerard wrote:
Then any party can do the same with any international agreement in the future.

Situation is unique.. this agreement is not your typical MOU relating to animal husbandry between Gabon and India. This impacts on strategic interests and military power.
Does a minority government have the right to bind the state in such a manner?
Did Vajpayee order tests in 1996? He could have.

But you are right... the only constitutional thing is a vote of confidence. Let MMS himself call for one. If he wins it, he has the moral authority to act on behalf of the Indian people.


Excellent point
Without a proper consensus the deal was pushed but after the deal negotiation the consensus is being built up. This is totally opposite of what a nation does.
With talk of even making sure that other parties dont come to power there is more urgency to get this deal under scrutiny. But this deal has been put together by lobbies who never came together before. That is the new thing in the current situation. The lobbies are not looking after the security interest of India and are actually working with the NPAs to get this deal passed.

Hence this talk of miority govt can pass this deal is more sinster with even the US govt saying the same thing and the US amb saying that the deal will not debated in the parliament and hence can be passed.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 19 Jun 2008 04:30

NPC to set up six more plants
The Nuclear Power Corporation (NPC) will set up six more plants to produce 8,000 MW on Kudankulam mode with Russian fuel support, Jairam Ramesh, Minister of State for Power, said on Wednesday.
“Without the nuclear agreement, the support of International Atomic Energy Agency and Nuclear Suppliers Group countries, we cannot get fuel from Russia for the proposed projects.” The government would expand its cooperation with Russia and France, he said.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Rangudu » 19 Jun 2008 04:50

Acharya wrote:With talk of even making sure that other parties dont come to power there is more urgency to get this deal under scrutiny. But this deal has been put together by lobbies who never came together before. That is the new thing in the current situation. The lobbies are not looking after the security interest of India and are actually working with the NPAs to get this deal passed.


With all due respect, what is all the underlined stuff if they are not conspiracy theories? Who are "they" and what evidence do you have that "they" are working with NPAs or trying to ensure certain Indian parties do not come to power?

Why can't we have a simple, fact based debate without making everything a part of some sinister global conspiracy to nuke nood India?

PS, I had requested you on the old thread to explain what you meant by your last reply to me. Thanks.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby vsudhir » 19 Jun 2008 05:09

FWIW, LKA is on record (or was it Yashwant Sinha) that should the NDA return to power in 2009, they'll reconsider any N-deal the UPA signs.

On matters of strategic import, lack of consensus can be detrimental on multiple levels. Why not a JPC on the 123 and an Indian version of the hyde act (the so-called Jekyll act) to clearly spell out how far we are willing to go?

If MMS is really interested in power gen via the N-deal, then shouldn't such interest extend to ensuring the principal oppn agrees on the basics of such strategic policy steps? Giving a JPC, sharing credit with LKA or some such personality would be bare bones basics to proceed, no?

Either way, we're in for a stormy ride. Whats done is done. I only hope that when time comes we'll do a Tarapur on the NSG should IOndian strategic interests be sufficiently threatened. Past record doesn't inspire confidence, unfortunately.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ramdas » 19 Jun 2008 05:14

In a week, we shall be seeing the end of our strategic nuclear weapons program if the commies fail to kill the deal. Very soon, we shall be cooperating towards an FMCT, leaving even TSP with a larger. more effective nuclear deterrent. Finally, as the rootless elite always wanted, we shall meekly cave in to all TSP and PRC demands only to maintain 9% economic growth.
The DAE itself will be emasculated by scientists moving to the private sector which will enter the nuclear business as well. The multidisciplinary and unique capabilities of the DAE will then wither away.

Bhishma Pitamaha will however, be very happy. After all, according to Bhishma pitamaha, nukes no longer matter, knowledge alone does. National self respect is after all for those crude peasant like people, no ?

What a shame !!! Unless the macaulayist elite are stripped out of their positions of power, nothing better can happen. Zero economic growth for the time being but strategic independence would have been a better option. I still hope that the commies save the country by making the UPA cave in to them. Hope the next govt. completely negates this deal. It did not have majority parliamentary support.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby shiv » 19 Jun 2008 05:57

I had a question in the old thread. I shall re post

What if the nuclear deal is signed - say in 3 months time.

What will happen to India (as a consequence of the deal) in

1) 10 years
2) 20 years
3) 50 years

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby shiv » 19 Jun 2008 06:00

ramdas wrote:In a week, we shall be seeing the end of our strategic nuclear weapons program if the commies fail to kill the deal. Very soon, we shall be cooperating towards an FMCT, leaving even TSP with a larger. more effective nuclear deterrent. Finally, as the rootless elite always wanted, we shall meekly cave in to all TSP and PRC demands only to maintain 9% economic growth.
The DAE itself will be emasculated by scientists moving to the private sector which will enter the nuclear business as well. The multidisciplinary and unique capabilities of the DAE will then wither away.

Bhishma Pitamaha will however, be very happy. After all, according to Bhishma pitamaha, nukes no longer matter, knowledge alone does. National self respect is after all for those crude peasant like people, no ?

What a shame !!! Unless the macaulayist elite are stripped out of their positions of power, nothing better can happen. Zero economic growth for the time being but strategic independence would have been a better option. I still hope that the commies save the country by making the UPA cave in to them. Hope the next govt. completely negates this deal. It did not have majority parliamentary support.


Ramdas. Please see ramana's caution to rangudu No need to get shrill. And please ease off on the lamentation about particular people.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 19 Jun 2008 06:00

G-8 Funding Likely to Boost Indian Nuclear Power
The U.S. and other G8 countries have earmarked $10 billion for promoting clean energy in emerging economies such as India and China

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Rangudu » 19 Jun 2008 06:03

If this deal is consummated (a big If), within 6-7 years, we'd see rapidly increasing FDI in infrastructure based on the expectation of a large number of reactors coming online. I see maybe 1-2 Indo-US defence deals but not much more. I see the destruction of NPT based global order and India beginning to export nuclear technology to friends. China and TSP become more belligerent and we possibly see another 2002 like confrontation.

Forecasting beyond 10 years is fraught with more uncertainties but my biggest predicted outcome from this deal is an India that breaks through the current infrastructure barrier that threatens our 10% growth in the near future.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 19 Jun 2008 06:10

A DISARMING INITIATIVE
we should avoid putting ourselves in a position where our strong espousal of elimination generates pressure on us to take some intermediate steps, such as signing the CTBT and declaring a moratorium voluntarily on the production of fissile material as a gauge of our genuine commitment to a nuclear-weapon-free world.

Elimination of nuclear weapons will prove a proposition practically impossible to implement, given the inordinately complex nature of the issue. Ultimately it will get limited to an arms-control and non-proliferation agenda. We should neither get locked into arms-control arrangements prematurely nor allow ourselves to be subject to tighter nonproliferation restrictions applicable to NNWS. Our rhetoric on elimination should not compromise the substance of our as-yet-incomplete deterrent.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby shiv » 19 Jun 2008 06:15

From the political manipulation standpoint the best time to sign the deal may be 6 months or so before the next election and dare the Left to bring the government down. If they so - they will take the blame in the next election. If they don't it's whatmeworry politically.

:rotfl: AND :((

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Prem » 19 Jun 2008 06:27

If this Deal go though then it has the potential to cook Commie goose for good. Their utility to their masters will diminsh greatly.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby shiv » 19 Jun 2008 06:46

Prem wrote:If this Deal go though then it has the potential to cook Commie goose for good. Their utility to their masters will diminsh greatly.


They might even cook their own goose in India "by taking to the streets"

But on the point that a new government can abrogate any treaty, the answer is yes and no IMO.

Any government can abrogate any treaty if it is seen as going against national interest. But the chances of doing that depend on the consequences of abrogation. I think the 123 had specific clauses that allow the deal to fall through - but it happened so long ago (2,50,000 threads ago) that I have forgotten having missed the last 2,49,998 threads.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby enqyoobOLD » 19 Jun 2008 07:26

Exactly why again are ppl here so :(( :(( about the deal moving ahead? I must have missed that discussion.. 8) Last I checked, even Shri L.K. Advani was in favor of it..


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