Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17070
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby NRao » 22 Jun 2008 16:20

It is a fact that attempts to ban *war-fighting* weapons face huge difficulties.

However, nucler weapons have only been used as war-fighting weapons in ONE campaign, 63 years ago when they were brand new.

There is a reason for that.

Nuclear weapons are *not* war-fighting weapons; they are something else. They are instead the ultimate guarantee against catastrophic defeat.

Secondly, how many armed forces continue to operationally plan on using expanding bullets or chemical weapons on the battlefield? These are war-fighting weapons, but thanks to conventions their use has been sharply limited to a handful of conflicts in the last 90 years, which have seen hundreds of wars.


This argument is flawed in that it does not take into account non-state entities, the major issue today. Even among state entities there is "rogue" nations that fall into a bucket that is very close to a non-state entity.

GNEP addresses both these issues. Total control. Actually Bhopal's keeda is also invited to the table. It converts everyone into a good guy......at least for the time being.

Actually, Obama used the word "account" to get the hands around fissile material......like N^3 stated "every atom". The haves are now totally scared of the have nots, realizing that there are some that mix and match politics (which in the worst case can be bargained/bartered) with religion (no bargaining/bartering ..... just conversion).

What GNEP does not allow is a country specific exemption or the like. Any thing outside GNEP would be considered a leak. And, that is the way, I think, the US views Indian "strategic" needs. It is not they disagree with India, just that cannot get GNEP to rotate unless India is brought under this new accounting system.

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 22 Jun 2008 17:17

The fears that India will become party to CTBT, FMCT etc after the deal is signed are just that, they are fears.


Fears arise from perceptions.

Just as "Only Nixon could go to China", is it the case that only an Advani can sign this deal?

We know that LKA broke down and wept with joy when ABV told him of Pok-II. In contrast MMS was said to be anxious, wondering what the US will do to India.

So LKA has credibility amongst jingos while MMS does not.

If a person lacks credibility, can he create same? Apparently, in parts of America, young black men, fresh from attending church with their grandmothers, gain 'street cred' by 'gang banging'.

Is MMS's predicament due to his failure to gain 'street cred'? As the person blamed for closing down Uranium mines, should he have ensured that at least one mine was reopened? After announcing that CIRUS was to be shut down, should he have announced that a companion to DHRUVA would be built? Should he have disassociated himself from the voluntary self MTCR that prevented a test launch of the Agni-III until General Pace gave his approval? Should he have authored an Indian domestic 'Jekyll' act to negate the US domestic 'Hyde' act?

Would such nuclear 'gang banging 'acts given him the credibility to sign the deal? To gain the trust of jingos? Or would they still dismiss him?

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 22 Jun 2008 17:38

In short if the deal is signed today and another one year for it to come into effect then for next 3/4 years our fissile material production read plutonium will be cut down to 1/3 or even less


You are assuming that those 14 reactors placed on the civilian side were engaged in weapons grade Pu production so placing them under safeguards would cut down on the fissile supply.

Is that in fact so? Were they all being used for military purposes? Is there Uranium for that? And what about electrical power production? It is assumed by some that certain PHWRs were being operated in low burnup mode and continuously refueled but those 'suspect' reactors ended up on the military side of the separation plan.

Separation reduces the amount of Tritium available, but there are other ways of producing Tritium. And the LiD for the TN secondary is made by reacting Lithium metal with Deuterium gas and is unaffected by all this.

And what is to stop India from building additional Pu production reactors ? Real ones... Dhruva clones.

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 22 Jun 2008 17:42

Nuclear weapons are *not* war-fighting weapons; they are something else. They are instead the ultimate guarantee against catastrophic defeat.


Which makes any attempt to ban them futile.

Unlike expanding ammunition or chemical arms which proved only marginally useful, nukes provide such overwhelming firepower, unavailable by any other means, that they cannot be supplanted by any other technology at present.

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5248
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ShauryaT » 22 Jun 2008 17:52

Gerard wrote:And what is to stop India from building additional Pu production reactors ? Real ones... Dhruva clones.
FMCT and the nature of the separation plan, which seeks to designate reactors as "civilian". Under and FMCT regime, fat chance of keeping anything except very few and small numbers for research and/or Pu for ATV's. India will then be somewhat like Brazil, who is an NNWS but some reactors are out of scope + with some weapons and fissile - the LOWEST among all NWS.

Will TSP operate under similar rules?

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 22 Jun 2008 17:59

GNEP addresses both these issues. Total control. Actually Bhopal's keeda is also invited to the table. It converts everyone into a good guy......at least for the time being.


But that is not the nature of termites. They will eat the table. First the legs, then the rest.
You cannot make friends with termites. I read recently that they destroyed documents and cash inside the safety deposit box of a bank in Bihar. Only in Bihar can there be a Laloo termite that prefers cash inside a bank vault but I digress....

Like his Isopteran cousins, the Bhopali termite has produced many offspring. While Bhopali himself is relaxing, his Persian, Syrian, Saudi and Korean offspring are busy chewing away. And that is visible termite damage. The real danger is from the termites that you cannot see.

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17070
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby NRao » 22 Jun 2008 17:59

I am not sure I understand your comment. Are you saying that India will join GNEP as a "supplier" (of reprocessed reactor fuel) country as opposed to a "recipient" country?

Inida was to have been classified as a "recipent" country -- not as a "reprocessing" country. Has there been a change in this stance in recent times?


No.

I am not suggesting any thing ....... just my read of tea leaves.

India will be a recipient country (if India subscribes to GNEP), that is true.

However, in J18 India had wanted full reprocessing facilities - with no ties (equal to the US). Under the Hyde Act/123 they got nothing close. What India did agree to is a brand new, multi-million dollar facility to reprocess. IMHO, there is no need for India to build such a facility, which is why I thought/think this is part of the GNEP thinking ..... something that GNEP needs. Furthermore, in the last speech given by McCain he states that under his plan the US may not need to open Yucca Mountain ..... all reprocessing (under GNEP .... although he does not mention GNEP) can be done abroad (I posted that part some time back).

This is why I think India will be the "reprocessing" country ...... a GNEP reprocessing factory so to speak. Recipient nation from getting Uranium from abroad. Have said this long back.....123 is actually meant to drive India into GNEP (IF that happens, there will be no testing for sure).

And, of course, once hooked to GNEP in any fashion, one can say bye bye to Thorium. Alternatively, IF India goes the Thorium route, there is really no way for accounting for all those atoms, unless all of the three phase reactors are placed under GNEP FROM DAY ONE.

Again, all this is my read.

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5248
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ShauryaT » 22 Jun 2008 18:00

Gerard wrote:
Would such nuclear 'gang banging 'acts given him the credibility to sign the deal? To gain the trust of jingos? Or would they still dismiss him?
It is consistency of actions that give credibility, not a few gang banging acts.

The Jan Sangh has been calling for the nuclearisation of India for 50 years now. Apart from wishful DDM and some BR analysis, please do look very carefully what LKA, ABV, YS, AS - the leadership that matters on the issue have said on the deal. Look at ALL that they have said and then see what their final position has been.

I see consistency. Will they still sign essentially this deal? I do not think so. If they do, they will loose my trust.

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17070
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby NRao » 22 Jun 2008 18:06

Gerard wrote:
GNEP addresses both these issues. Total control. Actually Bhopal's keeda is also invited to the table. It converts everyone into a good guy......at least for the time being.


But that is not the nature of termites. They will eat the table. First the legs, then the rest.
You cannot make friends with termites. I read recently that they destroyed documents and cash inside the safety deposit box of a bank in Bihar. Only in Bihar can there be a Laloo termite that prefers cash inside a bank vault but I digress....

Like his Isopteran cousins, the Bhopali termite has produced many offspring. While Bhopali himself is relaxing, his Persian, Syrian, Saudi and Korean offspring are busy chewing away. And that is visible termite damage. The real danger is from the termites that you cannot see.



:rotfl:

That is why Obama, I guess, stated first "account" for all atoms.

Perhaps the first shot at getting rid of such termites was the Israeli attack. I suspect, now that you mention Bhopali, etc, that the peace talks in the ME are meant to round out the termites. I am inclined to believe that there are termites that really scare the West ...... I mean a lot more than that 600 lb gorilla in Dadar.

If what you say is true, and I have no reason/s to the contrary, then all the more reason that GNEP is coming. Lock down is a must for the benefit of everyone. However, from an Indian PoV, the first lock down has to occur in Chicom. Actually even from a US/West PoV this is true, but perhaps not as urgent.
Last edited by NRao on 22 Jun 2008 18:07, edited 1 time in total.

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5248
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ShauryaT » 22 Jun 2008 18:06

NRao wrote:This is why I think India will be the "reprocessing" country ...... a GNEP reprocessing factory so to speak. Recipient nation from getting Uranium from abroad. Have said this long back.....123 is actually meant to drive India into GNEP (IF that happens, there will be no testing for sure).

And, of course, once hooked to GNEP in any fashion, one can say bye bye to Thorium. Alternatively, IF India goes the Thorium route, there is really no way for accounting for all those atoms, unless all of the three phase reactors are placed under GNEP FROM DAY ONE.

Again, all this is my read.
Your read is by and large correct, except for one area, I think. The "new" reprocessing facility in India will never come up. It will come up in some country the US controls completely and will be used as the vehicle to deny India reprocessing rights, under this deal.

So, in princple agreement today but kick the can to move India towards being a recipient of GNEP by roping in India into some trivial commitee that supposedly would control the GNEP.

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 22 Jun 2008 18:10

FMCT and the nature of the separation plan


IIRC, the separation plan does not prohibit additional military reactors.

Under an actual FMCT treaty, there is no military production. By anybody. Those PHWR reactors on the non-civilian side of the separation plan, the PFBR, Dhruva itself are all safeguarded.

HEU for naval propulsion is considered to be civilian use.

FMCT means quantitative capping. The NWS have ensured that they have adequate stockpiles for the military needs and even have surplus material they can transfer for civilian use. India needs to ensure that it too has surplus material before signing any treaty.

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5248
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ShauryaT » 22 Jun 2008 18:20

Gerard wrote:
FMCT and the nature of the separation plan


IIRC, the separation plan does not prohibit additional military reactors. not by itself but in union with FMCT, it does

Under an actual FMCT treaty, there is no military production. By anybody. Those PHWR reactors on the non-civilian side of the separation plan, the PFBR, Dhruva itself are all safeguarded.

HEU for naval propulsion is considered to be civilian use.

FMCT means quantitative capping. The NWS have ensured that they have adequate stockpiles for the military needs and even have surplus material they can transfer for civilian use. India needs to ensure that it too has surplus material before signing any treaty.
As per my guesstimates fat chance of that happenning till PFBR can produce super grade plutonium and not all the other PHWR are ready in the military side. We need at least till 2018-2020. Can FMCT be held off until then?

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 22 Jun 2008 18:23

What India did agree to is a brand new, multi-million dollar facility to reprocess. IMHO, there is no need for India to build such a facility


The new facility is to handle the spent foreign fuel. Most NSG suppliers won't be satisfied with campaign safeguards at a Pu reprocessing plant. How would that look in Canada or Australia? "Their" Uranium being fed into the same plant that produces weapons material?

An alternative would be to dedicate one of the reprocessing plants as civilian, but it seems they will be occupied in other matters for some time. Hence the new facility.

CIRUS shutdown is another price that India is paying for Canadian public H+D. At least India is keeping all the Pu made there. And Canada isn't asking where it went. It just wants to know that CIRUS is down.

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17070
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby NRao » 22 Jun 2008 18:24

Your read is by and large correct, except for one are, I think. The "new" reprocessing facility in India will never come up. It will come up in some country the US controls completely and will be used as the vehicle to deny India reprocessing rights, under this deal.


How does it matter where the reprocessing facility is located. All that matters is accounting for every atom. Like Shiv said skimming can be done. I would like to add, in or outside of India.

The way I see all this is "threat". If and when the current threat dies down, things will become more relaxed (in terms of GNEP) and the normal forces (NATO Vs. whoever, China-India, etc) will resurface. GNEP is a temporary fix since all are feeling the effects of Bhopali keeda. I really do not think that supplying India with clean Uranium will solve Indian strategic needs. It is just that the US being what it is is pushing her needs to the forefront and telling India (or Israel for that matter) that her needs are less important or even unimportant.

IF that is true, then it explains Sridhar's question, as to why Indian Scicom is subscribing to 123 and why henry K made those trips.

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5248
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ShauryaT » 22 Jun 2008 18:29

NRao wrote:
Your read is by and large correct, except for one are, I think. The "new" reprocessing facility in India will never come up. It will come up in some country the US controls completely and will be used as the vehicle to deny India reprocessing rights, under this deal.


How does it matter where the reprocessing facility is located. All that matters is accounting for every atom. Like Shiv said skimming can be done. I would like to add, in or outside of India.
One word. Control.

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17070
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby NRao » 22 Jun 2008 18:30

The new facility is to handle the spent foreign fuel. Most NSG suppliers won't be satisfied with campaign safeguards at a Pu reprocessing plant. How would that look in Canada or Australia? "Their" Uranium being fed into the same plant that produces weapons material?


G,

I was referring to the reprocessing facility under 123. That will be more than under safeguard ..... everything will be done in triplicate carbon copy ..... even IAEA has nothing like Indian carbon copy!!

And, I FEEL, that it is facilities like this that McCains will take advantage of for reprocessing world wide.

Oz/Maple will provide raw uranium, US and like will clean it up,all countries will use it under GNEP eye, India and some will reprocess it and store waste. No need Yucca Mountain.

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 22 Jun 2008 18:33

Can FMCT be held off until then?


The problem of verification in the FMCT remains. That is not an easy nut to crack.

Also GOI can give its assent to the FMCT text but state forcefully that it needs a few years before it is able to accede to the treaty. Just like France needed to proof test its TN design before it signed the CTBT.

If it is clear that India will delay signing, it may give space for China to push for PAROS since any incentive for early Chinese agreement will be gone.

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 22 Jun 2008 18:43

not by itself but in union with FMCT, it does


There is nothing like separation plan in union with FMCT.

They are mutually exclusive.

FMCT means the end of the separation plan. There is no military production at all.
Separation plan only runs while there is no FMCT to prohibit production.

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5248
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ShauryaT » 22 Jun 2008 19:06

Gerard wrote:FMCT means the end of the separation plan. There is no military production at all.
Separation plan only runs while there is no FMCT to prohibit production.
There is another aspect to it. In India's case virtually all "99%" of facilities will be under perpetual safeguards, the P5 will continue to enjoy their voluntary safeguards status. What is the value of that, is anyone's guess.

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5248
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ShauryaT » 22 Jun 2008 19:15

Gerard wrote:
Can FMCT be held off until then?


The problem of verification in the FMCT remains. That is not an easy nut to crack.

Also GOI can give its assent to the FMCT text but state forcefully that it needs a few years before it is able to accede to the treaty. Just like France needed to proof test its TN design before it signed the CTBT.

If it is clear that India will delay signing, it may give space for China to push for PAROS since any incentive for early Chinese agreement will be gone.
Look at it this way. The P5 knows that the verification problem can never be solved amongst them and hence has decided to move forward without it and anyways for who is the FMCT really for. Not for themselves (maybe China still is producing material), as they have stopped fissile production. It is targeted at India and maybe India alone. FMCT will come into being, without India's consent and as usual the pressure will be on India to sign quickly - as it had promised. Can India hold off? Maybe. Is the excuse of verification good enough to hold off, when others have said OK to no verification? Can we say we need more and hence need to wait? If yes, then why agree to FMCT in the first place?

India loses its credibility by not being consistent.

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 22 Jun 2008 19:20

Under FMCT, the NWS will be under permanent safeguards like everyone else. There can be no withdrawal. That means the end of "cutoff".

While everyone (like Brazil) may sign the FMCT, it is really a treaty specific to weapons producing states (the NWS and NPT holdouts). Brazil et al are already under defacto FMCT since they are NNWS.

It is targeted at India and maybe India alone


The NPT holdouts. But mainly India.

NSG full scope rule was aimed at India as well. The 189 NNWS member states of the NPT were already under full scope. Full scope doesn't apply to a NWS. That leaves India, Israel and Pakistan.

Pakistan doesn't have money and its civilian program is nothing but flimsy cover for weaponry. Israel doesn't have a civilian nuclear power sector. So full scope was all about denying India fuel until it stopped further production of weapons.

when others have said OK to no verification?


India has not agreed to this. Read MMS's last speech regarding this. He explicitly mentioned 'verifiable'.

Verification will also be a problem with the NNWS like Japan and Brazil. They are already smarting at the lack of progress on NPT article VII. If it is clear that even India will wait a few years before signing, while ramping up Pu production, the NNWS will be even more strident at the FMCT negotiations regarding verification.

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5248
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ShauryaT » 22 Jun 2008 19:28

Gerard wrote:Under FMCT, the NWS will be under permanent safeguards like everyone else. There can be no withdrawal. That means the end of "cutoff".
That is not my understanding....maybe I need to read the draft again. Can your famous auto Robot recollect something, quickly :)

John Snow
BRFite
Posts: 1941
Joined: 03 Feb 2006 00:44

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby John Snow » 22 Jun 2008 20:32

Gerard wrote:
Nuclear weapons are *not* war-fighting weapons; they are something else. They are instead the ultimate guarantee against catastrophic defeat.


Hence one does not need to test, as tests may result in fizzles, and armed forces need not worry if the bum works or not as long as we have occasional blurb in news media, we know how to seperate tritium, or enrich U or produce Pu.
That way the institutions dont have to be accountable.
Every action of our current GOI actions are well reasoned, logical, and beneficial to the nation. AK, AK, BM, MR all must have been told Guys we know your stellar achivements, we just need to go ahead with deal because with out the bijlee all our dukaan will be with Godrej Navtal!

Remember if you score century on debut (in first innings)and stop playing( from second innings on) you are better than Bradman no?

Test once in 1974 call it PNE even if it fizzles it is still ok because its not a weapon.
But after 1998 its different because we entrusted the job to AK AK RC Santan Sik and others the world now knows what we can do. In addition we told uncle what are civilian and what are not, so they are all (uncles chamchas) aware of what vigyan we have and what agyan we are capable of.

So let US know where to put the LTI on the paper and wait for deliverence which will come in a lightening bolt from the blue later.

No rational power will ever use a bum as frontline defense, and we are not that bum power to do so.
Last edited by John Snow on 22 Jun 2008 21:00, edited 4 times in total.

rocky
BRFite
Posts: 142
Joined: 08 Mar 2006 22:52

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby rocky » 22 Jun 2008 20:42

John Snow wrote:
Gerard wrote:
Nuclear weapons are *not* war-fighting weapons; they are something else. They are instead the ultimate guarantee against catastrophic defeat.


Hence one does not need to test, as tests may result in fizzles, and armed forces need not worry if the bum works or not as long as we occasional blurb in news media, we know how to seperate tritium, or enrich U or produce Pu.
I knew Spinster would latch onto spin just like Tendulkar took on Warne in the late 90s!

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 22 Jun 2008 21:16

Texts of the Draft Mandate for Negotiations and the Draft Treaty -- Conference on Disarmament

There is only the normal withdraw from the treaty itself (for supreme national interest) not an option to withdraw facilities from safeguards and still remain under the treaty.

Interestingly entry into force depends only on the five NPT NWS. India is nowhere mentioned.

India should not sign an FMCT unless it explicitly categorizes India as a state with nuclear weapons. FMCT may provide a method to amend, or rather extend, the NPT's definition of NWS.

Multilateral de-jure recognition of India as a nuclear weapons state should be the price for an Indian signature on the FMCT. And this after it has accumulated a stockpile.

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 22 Jun 2008 21:25

The term "produce fissile material" does not include activities involving fissile material produced prior to entry into force of the Treaty, provided that such activities do not increase the total quantity of plutonium, uranium-233, or uranium-235 in such fissile material.


Hmm...

This would seem to exclude laser isotopic separation but include laundering via a breeder.

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 22 Jun 2008 21:45


krishnasr
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 11
Joined: 21 Jun 2008 23:25

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby krishnasr » 22 Jun 2008 22:13

How about working towards a new treaty that enables all P nations to subscribe to a single testing facility. We can choose from Nevada to Semipalatinsk. Of course, the testing facility will decide the yield measures, and thus have a deterrence value set by these testing sites.

Build weapons, test in labs at home, and can do a real tests at the Joint Nuclear Testing Facilities [JNTF]. :twisted:

ramdas
BRFite
Posts: 562
Joined: 21 Mar 2006 02:18

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ramdas » 22 Jun 2008 22:53

Quote:
The term "produce fissile material" does not include activities involving fissile material produced prior to entry into force of the Treaty, provided that such activities do not increase the total quantity of plutonium, uranium-233, or uranium-235 in such fissile material.


Hmm...

This would seem to exclude laser isotopic separation but include laundering via a breeder.


This seems to exclude even centrifuge enrichment. After all, centrifuge enrichment does not increase the U235 content. So mining U is producing fissile material, is it ?

Anyway, even under the deal, we only commit to negotiating towards an FMCT. A strong willed govt can always find an excuse to stall progress towards an FMCT on some issue or the other.

Still, when key scientists have expressed their opposition to the deal, we should not go forward with it. The SP's "deal supporting action" is unfortunate.

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5248
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ShauryaT » 22 Jun 2008 23:02

Gerard wrote:Texts of the Draft Mandate for Negotiations and the Draft Treaty -- Conference on Disarmament

There is only the normal withdraw from the treaty itself (for supreme national interest) not an option to withdraw facilities from safeguards and still remain under the treaty.

Interestingly entry into force depends only on the five NPT NWS. India is nowhere mentioned.

India should not sign an FMCT unless it explicitly categorizes India as a state with nuclear weapons. FMCT may provide a method to amend, or rather extend, the NPT's definition of NWS.

Multilateral de-jure recognition of India as a nuclear weapons state should be the price for an Indian signature on the FMCT. And this after it has accumulated a stockpile.


Gerard: Thanks for that. Where is the assumption that once FMCT is signed the NWS will put their facilities under safeguards coming from, for it is not in the draft?

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5248
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ShauryaT » 22 Jun 2008 23:18

ramdas wrote:
Quote:
The term "produce fissile material" does not include activities involving fissile material produced prior to entry into force of the Treaty, provided that such activities do not increase the total quantity of plutonium, uranium-233, or uranium-235 in such fissile material.


Hmm...

This would seem to exclude laser isotopic separation but include laundering via a breeder.


This seems to exclude even centrifuge enrichment. After all, centrifuge enrichment does not increase the U235 content. So mining U is producing fissile material, is it ?

Anyway, even under the deal, we only commit to negotiating towards an FMCT. A strong willed govt can always find an excuse to stall progress towards an FMCT on some issue or the other.

Still, when key scientists have expressed their opposition to the deal, we should not go forward with it. The SP's "deal supporting action" is unfortunate.
This is about the best arguments, I have seen for the deal.

- We have the option to walk away with one year notice
- A strong willed government can manage through the shark infested waters

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 22 Jun 2008 23:34

Where is the assumption that once FMCT is signed the NWS will put their facilities under safeguards coming from, for it is not in the draft?


Isn't this the implication of article 1? How else does it take effect?

In any event, that is just the US proposal. Nations like Japan that suffer from IAEA inspections (one third of the IAEA budget is spent on Japanese inspections IIRC) are unlikely to give China a free pass.

A FMCT where the NWS don't allow others to monitor their reactors is dead in the water.

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 22 Jun 2008 23:47

This seems to exclude even centrifuge enrichment. After all, centrifuge enrichment does not increase the U235 content. So mining U is producing fissile material, is it ?


Reading it again, para 3 depends on para 2 which specifically excludes all types of enrichment (laser, centrifuge etc) so basically everything is banned.

I think para 3 is a reference to recycling/remanufacture. It seems to close the door on India purifying its reactor grade Pu or U233 by any means.

John Snow
BRFite
Posts: 1941
Joined: 03 Feb 2006 00:44

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby John Snow » 22 Jun 2008 23:59

Some time ago in the year 1998 Bribal Misra’s red phone rang,
Hello Birbal here…
Saar Ravindren Chanrdan here he was slightly sweating could be the heat of the month May or may be the slightly perplexing shape size of the mound that he had seen couple of minutes ago for the investment poured in..
BM: Ah! My friend how is our under ground investment doing, hope yields are going to be good?
RC: I am confident saar, everything looks ok but in investments like this we should not go by short term results but long analysis will gives better clues to balance the investment, he professed hedging his bets just in case.
BM: Please put Abu Talim also on the call to get his perspective
AT: Hello BM saar, the investment looks ok but even if the yields are not as wanted we can do some more things at our end, the ever optimistic AT replied in confidence..
BM: So we still 3 more investments in the portfolio to diversify no?
AT and RC both on the speaker phone yes of course.
BM: So we will have some more data to do ROI and the vehicle to put this investment on top for delivery to the customer when he ask for it, and it will serve him right (away)?
AT and RC: We are sure about it saar.
BM: Good Show very well done the country is proud of your team, convey our congratulation to the teams and shortly I will see you with your teams in Indraprasth.

BM was busy after two days slightly modifying the previous claim of maha bum with more mature message to assuage the ruffled feathers of unkil, who was fuming and jumping up and down like Samty Sam. BM the shrewd strategist that he is known to be called on cabinet minister Balwant Singh (popularly called as BS by opposition party Kangress).
BM called out hello BS how are you? Fine Sirji replied BS. You know BM began slowly theodicy bewafyee ho gayi and paused for a reaction, BS raised his eyebrows Kis baat pe? Yeh Jo investment kal persaon kiyatha, looks like the investment yields are not commensurate with what we expected out of the portfolio.
BS said I got it sirji I now understand why the 6th sense prevailed and we called it off. Good thinking sirji.
BM, thanks but I am going to delegate to you more responsibility, this Dalmott guy from spin city is itching for a show off, we need to cool him down, and I also suspect those ullu’s got a whiff of the investment portfolio. Now it was sinking into BS the ex army officer and well read man. He was already worried man that there must be a mole somewhere in sensitive parts of this body (of closed administration), but he kept to himself never revealing anything, after all he was an officer and gentleman with a code of honor and chivalry unsurpassed even in the 18th century, in the current day Hindustan politics.
Meanwhile BM continued the way out of this, I see is lets declare a unilateral moratorium of no more investment till we take stock of the situation and at the same time enunciate a very vague Minimally Deterrent Doctrine, which will side track from the investment mess and at the same time continue with ambiguity that chota mota maal is good enough, and the big one was POC. That way the ******** up north will not be rattled too much. As for Dalmott , he is used to chai pani and chand biscoots so keep him busy call him over to your palace, and for a change meet him in Europe’s best chateaus. If he says he knows exactly then tell him why are you so worked up, its never against US, beside slide in the acronym NFU (you and me know its means No F***$%g U) so that he knows for second strike, We have miles to go before we sleep and we cant keep going miles because of bad investments already is going to hurt the economy! If required make his eyes moist. Tell him the story of how we never invaded any country, we always welcomed everybody, including Red Chinese to Tibet!
BS was getting little impatient with this hand holding after all his initials speak for his acumen. Yes Sir Ji I got the drift and mission.
BM continued only the Akhand leader, his deputy volatile LW (Lalmohan Wadwani aka Last Word) you and I know this yields. Of course the investment portfolio managers know this subprime investment yields. Its messy sometimes science becomes art especially when equations of state are not understood, you and I know very well how we are being harassed by Amma from south, based on her state of equation of mind!
BS was playing chess in his mind and that two multi dimensional chess, one opponent Dalmott, one the lizard up north, one blood sucking bed bug (Khatmal) to the west, boy I see lot of chand biscoots and Chai paani consumed and that too late night!
But there was silver lining in all this, one thing we now have data on how to invest in future, we know which company components worked, which did not work, or partially worked. He always thought glass is half full. The chotus are sure to perform, but the motus need a little trimming and fine tuning, and our managers are brilliant they can come up with some way of getting them to perform in about another twenty four years, anyway we don’t need to invest again very soon. It's not all bad, but the most important thing is keep the status quo, don’t surrender the option to invest in future, the nationalist in him was sounding alarms.

Thanks to BS he dragged the talks, meanwhile thanks also to the bearded idiots who went and invested their own smuggled funds and made tit for tat yields. That made life of BS a little easy and as he was engaged in marathon Chai Biscoot sessions. The world's biggest investment boss himself was hit by his commission agents. They hit the world investment center the big boss head quarters.
Balwant Singh was genuinely concerned that after all we are democracies and the fundamental concept of civilized behavior was breached and civilians targeted by terrorists. He along with the entire cabinet called on the president and offered unconditional intelligence sharing and also physical assets on this occasion.
The pressure and interest in the results of investment waned for a while.
But the cabinet decided if and when the new GOI is formed they would share the completely the information about investments and the strategic dialogue about the investment with worlds biggest investor!

John Snow
BRFite
Posts: 1941
Joined: 03 Feb 2006 00:44

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby John Snow » 22 Jun 2008 23:59

Some time ago in the year 1998 Bribal Misra’s red phone rang,
Hello Birbal here…
Saar Ravindren Chanrdan here he was slightly sweating could be the heat of the month May or may be the slightly perplexing shape size of the mound that he had seen couple of minutes ago for the investment poured in..
BM: Ah! My friend how is our under ground investment doing, hope yields are going to be good?
RC: I am confident saar, everything looks ok but in investments like this we should not go by short term results but long analysis will gives better clues to balance the investment, he professed hedging his bets just in case.
BM: Please put Abu Talim also on the call to get his perspective
AT: Hello BM saar, the investment looks ok but even if the yields are not as wanted we can do some more things at our end, the ever optimistic AT replied in confidence..
BM: So we still 3 more investments in the portfolio to diversify no?
AT and RC both on the speaker phone yes of course.
BM: So we will have some more data to do ROI and the vehicle to put this investment on top for delivery to the customer when he ask for it, and it will serve him right (away)?
AT and RC: We are sure about it saar.
BM: Good Show very well done the country is proud of your team, convey our congratulation to the teams and shortly I will see you with your teams in Indraprasth.

BM was busy after two days slightly modifying the previous claim of maha bum with more mature message to assuage the ruffled feathers of unkil, who was fuming and jumping up and down like Samty Sam. BM the shrewd strategist that he is known to be called on cabinet minister Balwant Singh (popularly called as BS by opposition party Kangress).
BM called out hello BS how are you? Fine Sirji replied BS. You know BM began slowly theodicy bewafyee ho gayi and paused for a reaction, BS raised his eyebrows Kis baat pe? Yeh Jo investment kal persaon kiyatha, looks like the investment yields are not commensurate with what we expected out of the portfolio.
BS said I got it sirji I now understand why the 6th sense prevailed and we called it off. Good thinking sirji.
BM, thanks but I am going to delegate to you more responsibility, this Dalmott guy from spin city is itching for a show off, we need to cool him down, and I also suspect those ullu’s got a whiff of the investment portfolio. Now it was sinking into BS the ex army officer and well read man. He was already worried man that there must be a mole somewhere in sensitive parts of this body (of closed administration), but he kept to himself never revealing anything, after all he was an officer and gentleman with a code of honor and chivalry unsurpassed even in the 18th century, in the current day Hindustan politics.
Meanwhile BM continued the way out of this, I see is lets declare a unilateral moratorium of no more investment till we take stock of the situation and at the same time enunciate a very vague Minimally Deterrent Doctrine, which will side track from the investment mess and at the same time continue with ambiguity that chota mota maal is good enough, and the big one was POC. That way the ******** up north will not be rattled too much. As for Dalmott , he is used to chai pani and chand biscoots so keep him busy call him over to your palace, and for a change meet him in Europe’s best chateaus. If he says he knows exactly then tell him why are you so worked up, its never against US, beside slide in the acronym NFU (you and me know its means No F***$%g U) so that he knows for second strike, We have miles to go before we sleep and we cant keep going miles because of bad investments already is going to hurt the economy! If required make his eyes moist. Tell him the story of how we never invaded any country, we always welcomed everybody, including Red Chinese to Tibet!
BS was getting little impatient with this hand holding after all his initials speak for his acumen. Yes Sir Ji I got the drift and mission.
BM continued only the Akhand leader, his deputy volatile LW (Lalmohan Wadwani aka Last Word) you and I know this yields. Of course the investment portfolio managers know this subprime investment yields. Its messy sometimes science becomes art especially when equations of state are not understood, you and I know very well how we are being harassed by Amma from south, based on her state of equation of mind!
BS was playing chess in his mind and that two multi dimensional chess, one opponent Dalmott, one the lizard up north, one blood sucking bed bug (Khatmal) to the west, boy I see lot of chand biscoots and Chai paani consumed and that too late night!
But there was silver lining in all this, one thing we now have data on how to invest in future, we know which company components worked, which did not work, or partially worked. He always thought glass is half full. The chotus are sure to perform, but the motus need a little trimming and fine tuning, and our managers are brilliant they can come up with some way of getting them to perform in about another twenty four years, anyway we don’t need to invest again very soon. It's not all bad, but the most important thing is keep the status quo, don’t surrender the option to invest in future, the nationalist in him was sounding alarms.

Thanks to BS he dragged the talks, meanwhile thanks also to the bearded idiots who went and invested their own smuggled funds and made tit for tat yields. That made life of BS a little easy and as he was engaged in marathon Chai Biscoot sessions. The world's biggest investment boss himself was hit by his commission agents. They hit the world investment center the big boss head quarters.
Balwant Singh was genuinely concerned that after all we are democracies and the fundamental concept of civilized behavior was breached and civilians targeted by terrorists. He along with the entire cabinet called on the president and offered unconditional intelligence sharing and also physical assets on this occasion.
The pressure and interest in the results of investment waned for a while.
But the cabinet decided if and when the new GOI is formed they would share the completely the information about investments and the strategic dialogue about the investment with worlds biggest investor!

ramdas
BRFite
Posts: 562
Joined: 21 Mar 2006 02:18

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ramdas » 23 Jun 2008 00:17

This is about the best arguments, I have seen for the deal.

- We have the option to walk away with one year notice
- A strong willed government can manage through the shark infested waters


The key is "strong willed". Such an entity would abrogate any treaty if not in the national interest. In the past, Chhatrapati Shivaji abrogated his treaty with Aurangzeb when it served his purpose no longer. A contemporary, but extreme example is North Korea, which came out of the NPT when it felt like doing so.

The question is, will we have such a "strong willed" regime ? Looking at all the politicians we have now, that is very unlikely. On the other hand, this deal gives an extra lever for the "international community" to pressure our run of the mill governments into FMCT, etc. Moreover, if private players are allowed into the nuclear business, there will be an extra lobby with a vested interest in continuing the deal whether it serves our strategic interest or not. It is these considerations that make me oppose the deal very strongly.

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5248
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ShauryaT » 23 Jun 2008 02:12

Gerard wrote:
Where is the assumption that once FMCT is signed the NWS will put their facilities under safeguards coming from, for it is not in the draft?


Isn't this the implication of article 1? How else does it take effect?
Not at all, read article III for how it will take effect. It is entirely left to the nation in question. NO IAEA or ANY safeguards are envisioned.

In any event, that is just the US proposal. Nations like Japan that suffer from IAEA inspections (one third of the IAEA budget is spent on Japanese inspections IIRC) are unlikely to give China a free pass.
This is where the lack of Japanese sovereignity comes in. They are essentially powerless on the score.

A FMCT where the NWS don't allow others to monitor their reactors is dead in the water.
The NWS will walk right ahead and dare anyone to stop them or their global regimes. Who will do that? The spin that look the NWS have stopped production and the non-NPT members should comply will be enough for the rest of the NPT members to support and put pressure on India. Again, we will hear lectures from Sweden, Finland and Ecuador on how India should respect the world order. :evil:

Johann
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2075
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Johann » 23 Jun 2008 02:57

rocky wrote:Yeah, but it didn't start that way. The very concept of MAD came up because of the massive build up of nuclear weapons for pure warfighting purposes, not just for pure deterrence.

Once the proliferation of weapons was done to the appropriate extent desired, the bar was raised to make them "strategic weapons".


It is true that there was a learning curve with nuclear weapons - but by the 1960s the top political and military leadership in both the United States and Soviet Union began negotiating with each other on mutually capping long certain kinds of nuclear weapon stockpiles and placing outright bans on other kinds of nuclear weapons *only* because of the greater understanding of the real, fundamentally non-military roles these weapons played. Try to imagine India and Pakistan, or Israel and Iran negotiating a treaty prescribing the number of tanks and fighter jets on each side. Nuclear weapons are not war-fighting weapons.

Gerard wrote:
Nuclear weapons are *not* war-fighting weapons; they are something else. They are instead the ultimate guarantee against catastrophic defeat.


Which makes any attempt to ban them futile.

Unlike expanding ammunition or chemical arms which proved only marginally useful, nukes provide such overwhelming firepower, unavailable by any other means, that they cannot be supplanted by any other technology at present.


The guarantees that nuclear weapons provide are political, not military. But those guarantees are far from comprehensive.

The world's greatest nuclear power, the Soviet Union found itself first defeated in Afghanistan, and then watched its own political collapse and the demise of the CPSU, which held the trigger. Nukes could do nothing.

Nuclear weapons only guard against certain, very specific types of threats. In the end the only rationale to acquire them and hold them is that other people have them.

Chemical weapons on the other hand have demonstrated themselves in a number of wars as really quite effective as military weapons, particularly against troop concentrations; they dont work equally well under all weather conditions, but even at its *least* effective, it can severely hinder the efficiency of attacking troops by forcing them to run around in full protective kit. You should try it some time.
Also consider the anti-landmine and anti-cluster bomb movements that are forcing real changes to military doctrine around the world.

Sumeet
BRFite
Posts: 1545
Joined: 22 May 2002 11:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Sumeet » 23 Jun 2008 03:21

cross post from red menace thread

Left leaders get death threats for blocking N-deal


Sunday, June 22, 2008 (New Delhi)
Four top Communist leaders on Sunday received death threats by mail for blocking the India-US civil nuclear deal and for allegedly ''harassing'' Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government.

Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) leaders Prakash Karat and Sitaram Yechury and Communist Party of India (CPI) leaders AB Bardhan and D Raja got identical copies of the letter in flawed English, sources in both groups told IANS.

''May god bless this country to eliminate these r------ by any means. People are fed up with you. Enough is enough,'' read the letter, apparently written by Vinay Kateri from Mumbai.


Confirming that he had received the letter, Raja told IANS. ''These kind of things keep happening in politics. We do not take it seriously.''

A CPM source said Karat too had got the hand-written letter along with a computer printout.

Accusing the Left leaders of ''hijacking the national interests'', the letter asked the Communists, who are bitterly opposed to the nuclear deal, not to behave like ''terrorists''.

''Do not hold this country for ransom. Do not behave like terrorists,'' the letter said. It said the Communists were ''suffering from blood cancer, namely anti-American virus''.

''People of this country are tired with the r------- behaviour and for harassing the government for the last four-and-a-half years.'' A noting in the letter says a copy had been sent to the Congress office.

Alleging that the Left had blocked economic reforms and foreign direct investment, it warned that the Karat and his party would not get not even 15 Lok Sabha seats in any future election.

There was, however, a word of appreciation for Yechury. ''Of the four, we consider Yechury as a just and a reasonable person. Please try to convince the three remaining r------,'' it said.

svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14223
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby svinayak » 23 Jun 2008 03:26

The business lobby has long reach. They seem to have reached the top to eliminate any obstacle. Just like in BRF


Return to “Nuclear Issues Archive”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests