Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Rangudu
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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Rangudu » 15 Jul 2008 21:14

Edited out.
Last edited by Rangudu on 15 Jul 2008 21:54, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Raju » 15 Jul 2008 21:16

Acharya wrote:When I saw that hustlers were lobby people then I knew that something was wrong. They have unleashed a campaign against the people who question the detials of the deal and talk of the national interest.


this deal is not so much India-US but Congress-International Business Cartel.
US will prowl on the sidelines waiting to pounce on any openings from such a deal.
this seems to be kind of an end-game considering the enthusiasm of various parties involved.
they are not even afraid of consequences a few years hence when the veil will be lifted from the wheeling-dealing
behind this deal. What makes them so confident ?

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby NRao » 15 Jul 2008 21:19

Having said that, the safeguards issue is not as serious as the moratorium on testing. It is well known that India has the capability to develop its own nuclear plants. Moreover, despite the agreement it will remain India's right to classify future nuclear plants as civil or military, thus giving the country an escape valve.


True (hopefully).

However, can military reactors be tied to the national grid? I think not.

I doubt that IAEA will even allow Indian non-military reactors with Indian fuel to be tied to the national grid.

Comments?

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby svinayak » 15 Jul 2008 21:23

Rangudu wrote:Acharya garu,

You have crossed the limits in your insinuations on people who post here. First you accuse me of being a lobbyist without basis, then you accused BR admins as being paid off. Now you again openly use terms like hustlers :roll:

I and others with similar view points have treated everyone with respect and without name calling. In fact, many of the ridiculous and baseless conspiracy theories have met with patient responses. Is it too much to expect a civil discourse? I'm disappointed in your ad hominem attack.

I talking about the people I have met. What has that got to do with you.
Please explain again. You have made these allegation again and repeating it.
I have never pointed against you. Did I show me where.
BRadmins have got my reply regarding the comment I made about the discussion inside forum and not about BRadmins.

I am talking about the people I interact with and not about people in the cyberworld whose identity people can hide.

Now the question is when I talk about some group why is that you jump up and down.
Last edited by svinayak on 15 Jul 2008 21:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Rangudu » 15 Jul 2008 21:27

Acharya garu,

Please refer back to the posts. It is not at all evident that you are talking about "people you have met." CRS named me in his posts as a "pro-deal" person. You quoted that post and said pro-deal people are hustlers. It is only natural that I understand that you are talking about me. Same thing with previous posts.

When you are making allegations, should it not be clear who you are talking about?

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby svinayak » 15 Jul 2008 21:32

Rangudu wrote:Acharya garu,

Please refer back to the posts. It is not at all evident that you are talking about "people you have met." CRS named me in his posts as a "pro-deal" person. You quoted that post and said pro-deal people are hustlers. It is only natural that I understand that you are talking about me. Same thing with previous posts.

When you are making allegations, should it not be clear who you are talking about?

If CRS named you in his post then address his post. Why are you attacking me for his post. I have quoted his post for all the things he has posted. You have used that excuse to attack me without any reason. Watch and read what you post.
I am talking about people I have met. It has nothing to do about you. Get back to reality. You can ignore my post if you want to.
pro-deal people are hustlers

Tell me where did I post this. Are people on BRF fall under this category according to you.
I will catch you on this defenitly.
Last edited by svinayak on 15 Jul 2008 21:37, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby yvijay » 15 Jul 2008 21:36

CRamS wrote:Finally, for those who say once India gets the NSG waiver, India will not have to buy a single bolt from US; with all due respect I say BS. True, contray to all the cacophony in India, India in general, and this deal in particular, hardly make it to radar screen of US foreign policy. But neverthless, for those in US who stand to benefit, US did not put Nicky and others burning the midnight oil, so India gets to do whatever it wants after NSG and US will sit by idly and watch Russia/France make all the moola. Not a leaf moves in this world without Unkil's blessing, make no mistake about that. And that icnludes the French loud mouths who talk but remember, are members of NATO (no action talk only) when it comes to challenging US.


As you say, if not a leaf moves in the world without unkil's blessing, we are already doomed. This deal then surely cannot make us more doomed then we already are, don't you think so. I haven't seen a pessimist like you in long time. You don't seem to have any confidence in Indian capabilities and ultimate confidence in unkil's capabilities, I don't know why. It also seems you have condescending attitude towards indians, saying that cash starved indians can be bought off with green cards. What is so new about this deal that they can bought off easily now when they have working all these years in less than ideal conditions?

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Rangudu » 15 Jul 2008 21:40

Acharya garu,

Ok. I have addressed CRS directly as well. Going forward, my request to you is that when you make allegations about "certain lobbies" etc., please be mindful as to not appear like you are targeting fellow BRites. This was also the cause of the misunderstanding about your BR admin post. This nuclear deal issue has divided BR like few other issues and we all need to be careful about focusing on the issues and not fellow members. I'll be careful as well.

Regards

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Re: Cry My Beloved Motherland for--Parthasarathy Sudarshan

Postby Ananth » 15 Jul 2008 21:41

archan wrote:Since this was posted here, I respond here. I am sorry this professor of IIM is a racist, thinks America is about "white people" and is a "wretched country". As for Sudarshan, I was looking into this article about the fake certificates that he provided before purchasing the equipment from the US suppliers. There was no mention of that. I cannot make an informed decision about his innocence/lack thereof with what he provides in the article. And whoa, and = = with Xerox Khan! all India needs now is to learn from Pakistan.


I don't think the above post was made with sarcastic intent. If that is the case then ignore my points below.

What sentences in the article make you think that the Prof is "racist" and that he thinks America is about "white people"?

Have you seen the court documents which state Sudarshan produced "fake" documents or are you basing your opinion on the news reports alone? If it is news reports which agencies were producing those news reports?

The article's thrust was not about innocence, as I believe even the learned prof doesn't have all the material to prove it. The thrust of the article is against the credulity and charade of righteousness that US commerce dept. was cloaking itself by prosecuting Sudarshan. The comparison with Xerox was to highlight the sheer stupidity of the proceedings where the kingpin of serious nuclear proliferation is let go while the sale of vintage microcontrollers is considered violation of US law. Well even your breathing of air can be argued as contributing to global warming.

I believe your fallacy lies in basing your judgement on sample size 1. Tell me, how many articles by Prof. Vaidyanathan did you read? Is your learned opinion based on duly following several articles by the Prof?

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Raju » 15 Jul 2008 21:41

yvijay,

Each preceding generation of Indians had done some good work for this country.
It is only on the good work of those folks that can be exploited today.
They initiated a project of self-dependence upon which the bargaining can be done today.
there is a reason why unkil does not show equal interest in say Africa. And it is because
they did not have farsighted leaders in the past.

the vestiges of independece that we had is what is being put up for bargain today.
this is how I see this.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby svinayak » 15 Jul 2008 21:50

Rangudu wrote:Acharya garu,

Ok. I have addressed CRS directly as well. Going forward, my request to you is that when you make allegations about "certain lobbies" etc., please be mindful as to not appear like you are targeting fellow BRites. This was also the cause of the misunderstanding about your BR admin post. This nuclear deal issue has divided BR like few other issues and we all need to be careful about focusing on the issues and not fellow members. I'll be careful as well.

Regards

OK, Take back all those 'your insinuations on people who post here', 'you again openly use terms like hustlers', 'many of the ridiculous and baseless conspiracy theories have met with patient responses', 'your ad hominem attack'

I dont want this to be repeated against me ever again or by anybody else. Admins are doing a fine job and leave it to them to keep things in control. You can ignore my post if you dont agree. It is very simple.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Rangudu » 15 Jul 2008 21:56

I've edited my post. Please edit yours as well and please also make it clear who you are talking about, especially while quoting other posts that have BR members' names.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ldev » 15 Jul 2008 22:05

This message is to clarify that my post which started this mini fracas in no way was intended to indicate or insinuate that Arun_S was speaking on behalf of the Bharatiya Janata Party with respect to the questions that were posed in his earlier post.

Hope this clarifies matters fully.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby enqyoob » 15 Jul 2008 22:07

Aha! Another good brawl. Let me stipulate here that I consider the term "hustler" to be highly complimentary and far preferable to "loser" or "wacko" which is what ppl usually call me ( not to mention what they called me in the eye-eye-tee), so how do I now become "pro-deal" so I can qualify? :mrgreen:

Asking Shri Acharya to provide references for his disbursements of wisdom is like asking Comrade K.R. Gowri to provide references and answers to her questions piercing the night air through the "VRS Sound" loudspeakers from Vidyarthi Corner:
Vietnamilenthusambhavikkuoooooooo - Cambodiayilenthusambhavikkunnoooooooo!


You just absorb the high frequencies, listen for music and entertainment and marvel at the decibel level (I am talking about Comrade Gowri only, mind u.). Wisdom comes much later, as the camel regurgitates the cactus in peace, or as the glowing Pu sinks into the ground water of the Gabon Uranium fields.

(NO IMPLICATION OF POLITICAL AFFINITIES, AFFILIATIONS ETC! :eek: :eek: :eek: )

Seriously, we need a blizzard here. To chill everyone out.
Last edited by enqyoob on 15 Jul 2008 22:11, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby shetty » 15 Jul 2008 22:10


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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby CRamS » 15 Jul 2008 22:19

ramana wrote:Pretty fair article that lays out the issues without covering up unpleasant facts. Must be somehting in the Krishna/Godavari waters that make the Andhra folks so clear headed about national interests! No axes to grind and no lifafas. Just the facts folks.


Good article, but I totally disagree with his following argument:

One point that goes in India's favour -- and a very vital one at that -- is that the US cannot face a standoff with China without the support of India. For facing China, both need each other. It is also true that the US excursions into Asia have a black and bleak record of failure. Vietnam, for example. In the future, any standoff with China can only be on the issue of Taiwan. And the odds of the US going it alone, without India's aid, are high.


I think way too many folks give undue importance to the India factor in US Chinese rivalry, if there is any such thing. I think that US & China are going clash for power yada yada is become an ipso facto. But IMO, except for cacaophony in some US circles, and some Richard Gere types making love to the Dalai Lama much to the consternation of the Chinese, facts on the ground don't bear this out, and certainly India being a factor in this rivalry is sheer speculation at best.

Based on my almost 2 decades of living in the west, particularly US, I have observed that whites do NOT have the same civilizational contempt towards Chincoms as they do towards us SDRE Hindus. Furthermore, while we Hindus are ambivalent about EJ conversion activities and for good reason, the Chinese are embracing Christianity out of their own volition. These facts alone convince me that except for the occasional hic-cup, I don't see any major flare up between US-led west and China. Thus, basing any Indian foreigh-policy decision on exaggarated notions of US-China rivalry is foolhardy IMHO.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby svinayak » 15 Jul 2008 22:25

CRamS wrote:

One point that goes in India's favour -- and a very vital one at that -- is that the US cannot face a standoff with China without the support of India. For facing China, both need each other. It is also true that the US excursions into Asia have a black and bleak record of failure. Vietnam, for example. In the future, any standoff with China can only be on the issue of Taiwan. And the odds of the US going it alone, without India's aid, are high.


I think way too many folks give undue importance to the India factor in US Chinese rivalry, if there is any such thing. I think that US & China are going clash for power yada yada is become an ipso facto. But IMO, except for cacaophony in some US circles, and some Richard Gere types making love to the Dalai Lama much to the consternation of the Chinese, facts on the ground don't bear this out, and certainly India being a factor in this rivalry is sheer speculation at best.

Based on my almost 2 decades of living in the west, particularly US, I have observed that whites do NOT have the same civilizational contempt towards Chincoms as they do towards us SDRE Hindus. Furthermore, while we Hindus are ambivalent about EJ conversion activities and for good reason, the Chinese are embracing Christianity out of their own volition. These facts alone convince me that except for the occasional hic-cup, I don't see any major flare up between US-led west and China. Thus, basing any Indian foreigh-policy decision on exaggarated notions of US-China rivalry is foolhardy IMHO.

Need to be reposted in the China thread. This is really missed by many Indian commentators.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Rangudu » 15 Jul 2008 22:25

CRS,

You may want to expand your frame of analysis from the "White man - Brown man" realm. Race is a part of many issues but in international relations it is not the main driver. US policies have been constant regardless of whether the policymakers included Anglo-Saxons, Eastern Europeans, Jews, African-Americans or even Indian-Americans. To keep bringing the "White man" in discussions would only make people tune out after a while.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Gerard » 15 Jul 2008 22:31

However, can military reactors be tied to the national grid? I think not.
I doubt that IAEA will even allow Indian non-military reactors with Indian fuel to be tied to the national grid.


IAEA has nothing to do with the national grid or what is connected to it. It cannot allow or disallow.

India is offering 8 additonal reactors as well as the 6 already safeguarded. The IAEA's job is to inspect those reactors. It cannot prevent India from doing anything with its militray reactors since these have not been offered to the IAEA.

Any macho inspectors will experince serious penile deflation when they come to India. They will enter Tarapur and see 4 reactors, two of which are totally off limits to them. They will be able to crawl around two reactors (under safeguards for decades before), but just over the fence, within eyesight, will be two new reactors that are producing bomb material.

What will they leran from 8, older, smaller CANDU clones? Nothing.

What secrets will they discover at the Tata Institute? CERN and ITER data? Not very sexy for a gung ho inspector.

Ayatollah Albright calls it a fools errand. He likens inspections to police searching a house for drugs when one room is marked 'drug lab' and is off limits.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby CRamS » 15 Jul 2008 22:34

yvijay wrote:[As you say, if not a leaf moves in the world without unkil's blessing, we are already doomed. This deal then surely cannot make us more doomed then we already are, don't you think so. I haven't seen a pessimist like you in long time. You don't seem to have any confidence in Indian capabilities and ultimate confidence in unkil's capabilities, I don't know why. It also seems you have condescending attitude towards indians, saying that cash starved indians can be bought off with green cards. What is so new about this deal that they can bought off easily now when they have working all these years in less than ideal conditions?


For a living, I am a manager dealing with the bottom line issues and hence have to be pragmatic :-).

I am dealing with facts on the grounds as I see it. Yes, $s and green card power are in use even now, and can be used in the future deal or no deal, but the deal gives a huge lever to Unkil given that inspectors will be on the ground. Do you really think CIA agents going into Indian facilities masquerading as inspectors are going to politely check out the civilian sites and leave? Come on, don't make me laugh. The inspections will be so intrusive, so stifling, making use of the letter of the agreement to the last dot, nit-picking every detail, blasting India in glare of CNN/Fox/BBC at the slightest ambivalence etc etc; all designed to get maximum hold of India's entire nuke strategy, civilian and military. Do you remember how UNSCOM humiliated Iraqis? And please, except for this 'largest democracy' balderdash, don't tell me, when it comes to nukes and WMD, US has any more respect for India having them, than they did for Iraqis.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Rangudu » 15 Jul 2008 22:36

Given that India has had 6 reactors under IAEA inspections for decades, it is logical to assume that CIA agents know all about them.

No wonder CIA was able to accurately predict India's 1998 tests. :idea:

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Prem » 15 Jul 2008 22:37

I dont understand why this Nuke deal is causing PMS syndrome among many good souls here. Indians are known for patience, why cant we all get along. If the ultimate purpose of discussion is to serve Indian interests, personal swipes dont help. :cry:

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby CRamS » 15 Jul 2008 22:44

To be on the pro-deal side for once :-), let me say one thing that I disagree with those against the deal. It is often repeated by ant-deal folks that this deal will at best satisfy a small (4-5%?) of India's energy demands, and hence its no big deal, literally :-). But the fact is that even if its such a small percentage, but perennial, I mean power without interruption unlike the wobbly situation today, or even what it would be based on wind/solar.hydr etc, an uninterrupted perennial source of power would go a long way in enhancing the manufactiring and factor automation sectors.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Rangudu » 15 Jul 2008 22:47

It's human nature when someone makes a passionate argument to what he perceives to be a friendly audience and gets :roll: in response, he will sooner or later either revisit his own beliefs and conclusions or ascribe ulterior motives to the other party. Debating in a civil manner requires us to overcome our reflexive tendencies and focus on the substance. Emotions can get ahead sometimes however.

As for me, I always try the patient approach or take time out and not post when I feel like I'm in the aforementioned area. This works everywhere except with the SHQ where I generally tend to emulate "Tiger" Niazi in 1971. :lol:

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby svinayak » 15 Jul 2008 23:05

narayanan wrote:Aha! Another good brawl. Let me stipulate here that I consider the term "hustler" to be highly complimentary and far preferable to "loser" or "wacko" which is what ppl usually call me ( not to mention what they called me in the eye-eye-tee), so how do I now become "pro-deal" so I can qualify? :mrgreen:

I am also a hustler - It takes one hustler to catch another hustler. :mrgreen:

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ramana » 15 Jul 2008 23:50

Ok, Folks enough. Its important that we are all on the train of Indian interests and not left at the station. So please think thrice beofre hitting the submit button. This must be very entertaining to the NPAs and other sundries.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby HariC » 16 Jul 2008 00:34

narayanan wrote:Posted by narayanan >>(kindergarten knickers on)<<:

Amit, Ur response has been RAFI. :mrgreen: .


and RAFI stands for ?

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby CRamS » 16 Jul 2008 00:48

Rangudu wrote:CRS,

You may want to expand your frame of analysis from the "White man - Brown man" realm. Race is a part of many issues but in international relations it is not the main driver. US policies have been constant regardless of whether the policymakers included Anglo-Saxons, Eastern Europeans, Jews, African-Americans or even Indian-Americans. To keep bringing the "White man" in discussions would only make people tune out after a while.


OK, lets say its civilizational as Samuel Hintington says so, something obvious but in pedantic terms. R-man, if what I said is not one of the key determining factors, tell me why there is no paranoia in US when it comes to UK pipsqueaks stockpiling nukes with impunity? I know this is a hackeneyed question asked ad nauseum, but just regurgitating it realize what we are dealing with when it comes to Unkil's paranoia regarding our nukes.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ramana » 16 Jul 2008 00:58

CRS, Try to read "The History of the English Speaking people" updated by Andrew Roberts. The original 4 vol work was written by Winston Churchill. This update covers WWI and aftermath period. The guy even moves between language and race seamlessly.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Kakkaji » 16 Jul 2008 01:08

Guru log:

Pardon me for butting in, but isn't it too late for the 'deal is good or bad' type of discussions?

A vote of confidence has been called on this issue. If the Govt. wins, it is obligated to move forward with the deal. If the Govt. loses the vote of confidence, the deal is in deep freeze until after the elections and the formation of the next Govt.

The people who will actually get to vote on this deal next Tuesday, would do so based on political considerations. How many of the 500-odd MPS do you guys think will actually vote on the merits, or lack thereof, of this deal?

So why is so much bandwidth, and Guru-power, being wasted now?

I suggest the Gurus please chill for now, and come back on July 22nd after the vote, for the next round of BRF-ishtyle kickboxing. :wink:

JMHO

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby svinayak » 16 Jul 2008 01:09

ramana wrote:CRS, Try to read "The History of the English Speaking people" updated by Andrew Roberts. The original 4 vol work was written by Winston Churchill. This update covers WWI and aftermath period. The guy even moves between language and race seamlessly.

Only the British Anglicans can do this with their experience with several cultures and religions over centuries.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby enqyoob » 16 Jul 2008 02:06

Acharya: this was also the cited competitive advantage of the Al Qaeda, according to ppl who wrote their observations from the Khyber Pass in the 1990s.

(just pointing out a fact ...).

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby joshvajohn » 16 Jul 2008 02:29

I am wondering whether congress is doing its homework with numbers. They seem to be overconfident. But they have to work out in reality.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Arun_S » 16 Jul 2008 02:54

ldev wrote:This message is to clarify that my post which started this mini fracas in no way was intended to indicate or insinuate that Arun_S was speaking on behalf of the Bharatiya Janata Party with respect to the questions that were posed in his earlier post.

Hope this clarifies matters fully.

Yes, it does clarify and settles the issue now.
Thank you. -Arun_S

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby nkumar » 16 Jul 2008 03:07

For a moment assume that UPA survives on July 22 and then moves fast and able to get a waiver from NSG. Now, that won't come without China's consent. An argument which has been made by many folks supporting the deal is that India will be helping Pakistan and China by not signing this great deal and they will be celebrating. If one follows that logic, does it not follow from that - if China supports this deal in NSG, this deal is then not in our interest ? Very very interesting times ahead.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Rangudu » 16 Jul 2008 03:16

CRS,

It's hundreds of years of common history including periods of fighting and cooperation. BTW, the easiest way to lose an American's attention and your credibility by talking about "White man" this and "Brown man" that. Think of what you'd do when a reasonable sounding foreign person starts talking about "Hindu caste system" etc. Americans are no more paranoid about our nukes than they were about China's. It just takes them a while to get used to another seat on the table. Now, we can either try to play ball and score goals when we can, using our skill. Or we can sit on the side and keep whining about "evil White man" etc.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ramana » 16 Jul 2008 03:16

Not necessarily. If PRC supports it has its own interests to further. We need to understand what they are.

Meanwhile two articles from Deccan chronicle, 16 July 2008

Is the nuclear deal really in the national interest?
By Vikram Sood

It is true that not many people have read the 123 Agreement, the Hyde Act or the US Atomic Energy Act of 1954. Fewer understand them. Yet amazingly, luminaries of the Samajwadi Party, having hidden their nuclear knowledge for years, attained enlightenment after a brief half-hour meeting with our former President. It was a convenient meeting at a convenient hour.

The SP says it will support the government but not join it, having learnt from the Left the exquisite art of wielding power without responsibility. Dissidents within the SP say they are opposed to their leadership but not opposed to the nuclear deal. The Akali Dal says they are a constituent of the NDA but will not vote against the government in deference to the Prime Minister. The SP has defined the national interest more specifically. They want certain ministers divested of their portfolios and would like to select their own man as the next director of the Central Bureau of Investigation, presumably to help in those cases involving the party hierarchy. Quite obviously, a case of personal party interests masquerading as the national interest.

We cannot solemnly declare that we will not share the details of the privileged IAEA Safeguards Agreement with the Left since they are not a part of the government, but then find that the agreement is already on the Internet for all to see. We cannot describe the deal as a national issue yet not talk to the main Opposition party, but prefer instead to have closed-door meetings in safe houses to woo the willing. We cannot say it is a national issue and then convert this into a Muslim, Sikh or a communal (read Hindu) issue or about Telangana. Where is the Indian in all this?

The never-ending soap about the nuclear deal looks bizarre and would be humorous were the matter not so serious. Since there is general cynicism in the conduct of statecraft, there can be an equally cynical interpretation of this elaborately-scripted charade. Both the Left and the Congress Party know they have to contest the forthcoming state elections in opposition to each other.

They cannot make inflation and energy prices an issue for parting company because that is self-defeating. The other catchy national interest is the 123 Agreement, but this is more an excuse than a reason. As the opposition to the deal grew, so did the nightmare that the successors to the throne may be the "communal party".

The alternative to this was for the Left to walk out once it was ensured that the SP and a motley crowd of parliamentarians would support the UPA in any vote of confidence. The nation would thus have been saved from the "communalists." There is no national interest in all this. It is only about several deals within a deal.

In the midst of all this high drama, some aspects of the Indo-US nuclear deal have been forgotten. For instance, why has all the pushing and shoving come from the United States if the deal is so much in India’s national interest? There has never been any satisfactory explanation from anyone — specially from the US, a country known to and able to act in its own perceived interest while pretending to be inspired by altruistic motives.

Many of us may have forgotten what Nicholas Burns had to say a few days after the Bush-Manmohan Singh nuclear agreement in July 2005. The gameplan was clear when he said that the 123 Agreement "brings India ... back into the non-proliferation mainstream in a way it was not before. And that is a tangible gain for India, as well as the US and the rest of the world." He had also said that "eventually 90 per cent of India’s nuclear reactors will come under safeguards." In other words, this is FMCT (Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty) through the back door, by reducing India’s capability to produce fissile material. There are several other things that could go wrong or at least work out differently. For instance, India may be able to push through the agreement with the IAEA and the NSG but not leave enough time for the US Congress to ratify the 123 Agreement. This would leave India free to deal with the French and Russians for supply of material and construction of reactors. Surely the Americans, having taken all these steps, are not going to sit back and watch all lucrative deals go to others when the 123 was to be part of an effort to revive the languishing US nuclear industry. Coincidentally, the US Energy Act of 2005 was designed to revive the country’s nuclear industry and what better prospects than selling reactors to India and China, where the market could be worth $150 billion. The deal exposes India to uranium supplies from a cartel notorious in the past to resort to price manipulations. In recent years, the price of uranium has risen six times above the usual average of about $25 per kg. With demand in India and China expected to rise, the price of uranium, already increasing at a rate higher than that of crude oil, will increase further.

Mr Burns had also said that American companies would be selling the "finest nuclear technology" to India.

But latest reports indicate that American negotiators are wary of supplying high-end technologies to India despite claims by Indian protagonists, and would rather supply technologies that cannot be replicated. It is extremely doubtful that the Chinese will ever agree to an arrangement in the NSG which enables the transfer of state-of-the-art dual-use technology to India as this has strategic implications for China.

Spin masters would have us believe that the Chinese favour the deal. It is well known that the Chinese have opposed every international Indian move seeking a higher profile or role. There has been no progress on the Sino-Indian boundary question, despite our unequivocal surrender of Tibet, and there were 150 intrusions along the border last year — indicating that things are far from being normal.

Whatever the Chinese may say publicly, they do not wish to see a rival in Asia. Their view of a multipolar world is quite different from ours. For them, multipolarity consists of two poles — themselves and the US — with lesser poles hovering around somewhere below, but with the US out of Asia. It is, therefore, puzzling to find that the Chinese actually support the 123 Agreement unless they have figured out that this would limit India’s strategic options in the future.

Recent comments by Strobe Talbott that the next US President — whether Democratic or Republican — may be harsher on India on CTBT and implement the deal only if India agrees to abide by this treaty, should be worrying. Is this another push and shove? Or just bluff and bluster?

Vikram Sood is a former head of the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s external intelligence agency



and
Singh hardsells IAEA agreement


New Delhi, July 15: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said, “Everyone today accepts that India is a nuclear weapons state,” adding that signing the India-specific nuclear safeguards agreement with the IAEA would finally end India’s nuclear apartheid. In his first exclusive interview on the Indo-US nuclear deal days before he took the decision to go to the nuclear watchdog, a move that precipitated the break in the alliance with the Left, Dr Singh told this newspaper: “For the first time since the nuclear tests of Pokhran-I, we have the world’s major powers backing us completely.

“Contrary to the insistence by my friends in the Left that the deal would tie India into the US’ strategic embrace and bring a marked pro-US tilt to Indian foreign policy, it’s not just the US that has tacitly recognised India’s position as a nuclear-weapons state, but Russia, as well as the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Australia.”

“In fact, all the EU states back India. Not one of these countries wants to see India’s trajectory tied down by energy shortages. The West has acknowledged India as a rising power and given India the status of a nuclear weapons state.” Dr Singh stressed: “This deal is good for India.” “I have said this a number of times in Parliament, that the Indo-US nuclear agreement is beneficial to India’s growth, that it fills a huge gap in our energy needs. But my colleagues in the Left somehow do not seem to share our view. They have ascribed motives to this deal that are simply not there,” said Dr Singh, who was far more circumspect about his “friends in the Left” than they have been to him. He said the agreement will in no way impinge on India’s strategic programme. India would never allow interference in her independent foreign policy


NRao
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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby NRao » 16 Jul 2008 03:28

In "Singh hardsells IAEA agreement", MMS is playing with words. "tacitly" is the operative word in that entire article. And, he is clearly trying to push the deal trying to argue that India has been seen as a NWS.

To be correct, everyone knows that India has the capability to make nuclear bombs. But, no one has accepted India as a NWS. Perhaps NWS + 1.

That he wants the civilian deal is a responsible expectation.

ramana
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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby ramana » 16 Jul 2008 03:43

In the IAEA safeguards thread I said its about managing expectations. The NPT is closed to further NWS. unfortunately the Indian elite is unable to make the case that this deal is something midway between NPT and non-NPT status. The problem was there from day-one when the deal was announced. It has been behind since then.lets be clear even if the deal operationalizes and contributes the 5% at a cost on many $Bs and India has to test for any reason (they will be for serious reasons only) this $B is the oppurtunity cost to get out of the dog house till then. One of the cardinal principles of inlt treaties is the beneficiary country has to give up something to get what it wants. The right to test is kept. A subaltern status to NWS is there. Thats the price of not testing before 1968. It doesnt matter making fatuous statements that "can test in 18 months after given permission" etc., etc. There were two grevious wars within three years(1962 and 1965) and yet it was not done and political leaders had to beg for umbrella(prior to the NPT treaty rounds) and got rebuffed. So they bought time by staying out.
Meantime the IAEA safeguards agreement is quite clean. The poison pills are elsewhere eg. in Hyde Act. If NSG waiver is clean its upto the elite and the establishment not to muck it up again and steer a course such that Indian interests are preserved.

It has to be tacit and defacto and not explicit and dejure for the boat was missed in 1968. And again in 1998.

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Re: Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Postby Muppalla » 16 Jul 2008 05:16

I strongly believe there is no relation for this deal to no-confidence motion in India. Irrespective of UPA victory in the parliament vote, this deal is a done case. The approvals from IAEA and NSG are on auto pilot. The procedural things can be done by UPA even as caretaker government.

The UPA has decided that way and went ballistic. What difference it will make whether they rule until 2009 May or rule until July 2008 fulltime and 2008 December as care taker. Three months give and take doesn’t make any difference.

Important point to be discussed is why the Congress and MMS gave importance to Nuke deal over anything else in the governance. They did all kinds of maneuvering possible in a diverse coalition that they are heading. In all this hustle with coalition parties, there is very little that DDM has covered regarding the poles inside congress and what exactly they think about MMS.

MMS may not be a strong leader (dependent on Sonia) but this deal is pulled by him and him only. At this stage the no-confidence move is just a process with no much value.


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