Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Locked
Rangudu
BRFite
Posts: 1751
Joined: 03 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by Rangudu »

x
Last edited by Rangudu on 21 Jul 2008 02:03, edited 1 time in total.
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by Gerard »

Gawd... peepuls are posting tings by Karan Thapur?

I shall match your vomitous post with the Profool....

Nuclear endgame
The alliance will shift the centre of gravity of Indian politics to the Right, with damaging consequences for the interests of the masses. This shift can only facilitate the further rise of the BJP.
Besides non-compliance with Singh's assurances-a procedural criticism-, the agreement is flawed on substantive grounds. It's part of an arrangement that detracts from the imperative of global nuclear disarmament. It legitimises India's nuclear weapons although India hasn't signed any nuclear restraint or disarmament treaty-because the US wants to favour a new friend.
Under the agreement, India will only put 14 of its 22 civilian reactors under inspections. It can produce 200 kg of plutonium from the remaining eight reactors-enough for 40 bombs a year. This makes nonsense of the professed "credible minimum deterrent", usually understood as a few dozen weapons. India already has 100 to 150 bombs. This rotten deal must be opposed on grounds of peace. In its energy component, it's another Enron in the making-only costlier and more dangerous.
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by Gerard »

Looks like the Khalistanis oppose the nuke deal too...

Canadian daily urges govt to veto N-deal
A popular Asian Canadian community newspaper from British Columbia, which has a sizeable Indian population on Wednesday urged the Government of Canada to oppose the Indo-US nuclear deal when it comes to approval before the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) next month.
Last edited by Gerard on 21 Jul 2008 01:36, edited 2 times in total.
shyam
BRFite
Posts: 1453
Joined: 29 Jul 2003 11:31

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by shyam »

deleted
Last edited by shyam on 21 Jul 2008 01:52, edited 1 time in total.
Rangudu
BRFite
Posts: 1751
Joined: 03 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by Rangudu »

India has a parliamentary form of government unlike the US. That is why the executive branch need not get treaties ratified by the parliament.

We cannot change the Constitution based on views on a particular deal.

The Indian system is working even if the mechanism has a lot of grime and dirt. If a majority oppose a treaty, then just bring down the government.
Muppalla
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7113
Joined: 12 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by Muppalla »

May be a repetitive question:

What is that in this deal that one has to do with this speed by putting everything at stake? Knowledged members (who could see the middle path) of the forum has described this deal in the following terms:

1) Half empty and half full - future generations will decide how the half empty portion can be filled to make it complete.

2) There are pros and cons (geopolitics, energy, foreign policy) and inspite of cons this is as much as we can get but still India has to proceed. India has to play realistic.

BR is a bitterly divided house on this issue and there is no question about it. Why India has to do this one in 2008 and not in 2009? What is it that is making the GOI to take this fast route?

(a) The argument that after Bush India cannot get this greatest deal does not cut ice as the new presisdential candidates openly support the deal in its current form.

(b) There are argument that if IAEA and NSG deals are clean then Hyde and 123 has no value, international deal take precedence over bilateral deals. If this is a case why US is so desperate (Kissinger visiting India, Mullford talking to every sundry politician in India etc.) ?
enqyoob
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2658
Joined: 06 Jul 2008 20:25

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by enqyoob »

Same here. :eek: Though I would maintain that there is some similarity here to the fable of
How a horse became a donkey

or in contemporary context,
How a goat became a dog


Two years ago, the very same terms in the nuclear deal that the GOI won in negotiation were being described as the unachievable goals that the NPAs were trying to deny India by many of the same people who are today rushing to condemn the deal. Just scan the last 3 pages of this thread, and count how many posts are about nuclear issues and how many are about party politics and government-toppling prospects.

As far as I can see, EVERYTHING in the July 18, 2005 statement of principles is still alive and well in the 123 and the IAEA agreement. The J18 was about cooperation and collaboration with mutual respect for each other's imperatives and aspirations, not Victory of one country over another. The present howling is all about getting more than what can be fairly won in the very near term.

Mupalla: I think your questions are very valid, but as far as I can see, the answer is that a Bush in the hand is worth many birdies from the NSG and IAEA in the future. Any deal is an involved process. What the US has agreed to do is to wink at India's P-6 status and find a way to bring India into the "fold" of the P-6 without making waves with any OFFICIAL declaration of NWS welcome. They have NO way of getting such an acceptance through without Pakistan and probably North Korea getting the same. Do you really want to see that?

The fact that Sen. Obama has made some statements is a far cry from what Democrat administrations have traditionally done, and what Sen. Obama will be under pressure to do in a new Congress.

There are a few things special about the Bush administration. They don't accept the Torture/ War Crimes treaty (for obvious reasons, or Kissinger won't be able to travel). They don't accept the Kyoto Protocol. Or the CTBT. Or the Landmines treaty. Or the Law of the Sea (AFAIK). Or the International Court of Justice. Or any number of other snake-oil treaties that were originally started by US entities or Oiropean entities. They pulled out of the ABM Treaty and started the NMD. They stopped the START process. The next President will be under heavy pressure to accept many of these, whether Democrat or Republican.

Point to note is that in the coming US elections, the House and Senate may come out with 67% BBoxer/ DanBurton types, with heavy lobbying for all the enemies of India. IMO it is a total pipedream to imagine that a law more favorable than Hyde will be passed in the next COTUS. Best bet is to take the deal now and get it through COTUS, and then wait 4 years for the backlash midterm elections, then point out that the Hyde is obstructing US business competitiveness, and eliminate the bad parts of it on those grounds. Meanwhile make sure that there is a desi equivalent passed in India that intelligently defines Indian interests and law on these matters, as a P-6 member would do.

Everyone moves based on today's realities. Once the NSG signs off (and the present COTUS miraculously slides it through) that's it. India is a recognized P-6 member, NWS, whether the IAEA gives a Certificate or not. Nothing will change that. All further negotiations move from that state of reality. The point is that the present GOTUS accepts that and is still willing to move forward. This is more telling of their intent than any statements that Rice or Burns can make, given that they are bound to uphold US law.

Short Quiz here: How many people can tell us about the Carter Cold Blunt Memo? Jimmy Carter was a Friend of India, right? yeah?
Tanay
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 6
Joined: 19 Jul 2008 04:03

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by Tanay »

RaviBg wrote:Nuclear deal and the BJP
Karan Thapar
July 19, 2008
First Published: 23:25 IST(19/7/2008)
Last Updated: 23:44 IST(19/7/2008)

I won’t deny that I’ve accepted the veracity of these stories because, in each case, two independent sources, both unimpeachable and utterly trustworthy, have confirmed them. But, of course, I could still be wrong. It could emerge that I’ve been gullible. So let me put a question to the two gentlemen these stories principally concern, LK Advani and Jaswant Singh. If these stories are essentially untrue — not in minor detail but in the broad point they make — why don’t you issue a public statement to say so? After all, if irreproachable sources are spreading “lies” about you then, surely, it’s incumbent on you to refute them? Because if you don’t, your silence will inevitably be construed as acquiescence.

Better still, deny the stories on the floor of the House tomorrow. The whole country will hear you and then it’s up to the government to either keep shut or provide proof.
I never gave consent to N-deal: Advani
http://www.rediff.com/news/2008/jul/19upavote24.htm
July 19, 2008 23:53 IST
In a strong rebuttal to the Congress on Saturday, which claimed that he had given his consent to the Indo-US nuclear deal in his meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh [Images] in December 2007, BJP leader L K Advani said it was 'baseless'.

"I have seen media reports quoting Kapil Sibal that I had expressed my consent to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the deal. I strongly rebut this report which is baseless. It aims at spreading misinformation and confusion in the run-up to the trust vote, which the UPA government has to face due to a crisis of its own making," Advani told PTI.

Sibal had claimed in an interview to a news channel that Advani had given his consent to the present Indo-US nuclear deal but later backed out when he failed to convince his party leaders.

Advani clarified to PTI that in his meeting with Manmohan Singh in December 2007, he had suggested that the Atomic Energy Act needs to be amended to insulate the deal from the effects of the Hyde Act.

"I had told the PM that the deal in its present form is unacceptable to the country. I had told him that our party's opposition is on account of the fact that the Hyde Act passed by US Congress undermines our strategic autonomy and imposes curbs on our nuclear sovereignty," he said.
Today on NDTV 24x7

Barka datt - Mr Sinha according to the recent information, Advani was convinced but was unable to convince the senior party leaded like you and arun shourey, is it true?

Yaswant Sinha - I am glad that you asked the question, Advani has said that he did not give any assurance, that aside but what is more important is it was a private conversation in which Vajpayee, Advani, Manmohan Singh and Brajesh Mishra were present and nobody else, and only the Prime Minister was privy to the details of this private conversation.

p.s sorry state of affairs.
vishwakarmaa
BRFite
Posts: 385
Joined: 19 Jun 2008 08:47

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by vishwakarmaa »

What Obama said shows, he wants votes of minority indian-americans community. Story ends there.
CRamS
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6865
Joined: 07 Oct 2006 20:54

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by CRamS »

Rangudu wrote:CRS,

Don't put words in my mouth. I have made my position on the deal very clear. I'll support it as long as the IAEA safeguards and NSG waiver are clean. The first one is okay. The NSG, we'll see. As to the future, it will depend on what we make of it. We'll have better options with this deal than without. If the same lack of speed we see in infrastructure projects, defence purchases etc. happens on the reactor front, the progress will be marginal. But the choice will be ours. I'd rather be in a job that has $1M max annual bonus than the one with $100K max bonus. At the end of the day, I may end up with a $35k bonus because of my laziness but the choice is mine.

Anyway, I hope you tore up your Prakash Karat fan club membership card after the last post.
Absolutely, I never was in the first place. But it gives me some confidence in the deal that guys like you, N^3, Amber etc see value in it after satisfactory IAEA & NSG dealings.

As I said before, there are pros and cons to the deal, buy my opposition is based on Unkil's CRE intent ad general untrustworthiness. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but if Unkil is really serious in co-opting India as a strrategic partner, the often touted counterweight to China theory, I will be convinced so if starting tomorrow, Unkil will come out and say that the so called 'global war on terror' includes TSP terror against India. And in every proclamation on GOAT, there is mention and admonishing of TSP state sponsored terror against India. Also, Unkil should make the current lavish funding to TSP contingent upon dismantling LeT and sundry India-specific terror appratus also along with so called "Al Quiada". Once Unkil does this, his mouthpiece media will follow suit, highligting TSP terror against India just as it does terror against Israel, 7/11 terror against UK etc. India's battle with TSP terror will have been half won then. If Unkil does just this, it will signal good intent on his part, and a lot of suspicions, and mutual acrimony from those like me opposing the deal will be dispelled.
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by Gerard »

Nuclear Deal: An interesting irony
A ranking Indian diplomat, who attended the briefing, recounted the experience as being "seriously easy". A western diplomat who seeks anonymity till at least the vote of confidence is won by the United Progressive Alliance said "no one opposed" the India Safeguards Agreement. It almost seems the global numbers have stacked up hugely in favor of the Indo-US nuclear deal. It seems the world is all set to give India a unique status on the so-called nuclear high table, the country of a billion plus people is finally being offered a stool if not a chair on this global pedestal.
The catch could well be that today we are only hearing voices of the global cheerleaders of the deal. Are the international dissenters keeping their counsel? Possibly to strike when it matters most, either on August 1, 2008 in the fourth-floor Board of Governors room of the IAEA, or later whenever the Nuclear Suppliers Group meets to grant India that necessary "clean, clear and unconditional" waiver to begin nuclear trade.
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by Gerard »

N-deal: New vistas for equipment makers for nuclear power plants
While the nuclear deal runs the risk of getting nuked, there exists a host of homegrown companies, which have a lot to gain from the controversial 123 Agreement.
svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14223
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by svinayak »


To the world community, it almost seems India gets to eat the cake and have it too! Hence, if that is the case, why are the global Ayatollahs of the nuclear age applauding this tectonic restructuring of global relations?

The catch could well be that today we are only hearing voices of the global cheerleaders of the deal. Are the international dissenters keeping their counsel? Possibly to strike when it matters most, either on August 1, 2008 in the fourth-floor Board of Governors room of the IAEA, or later whenever the Nuclear Suppliers Group meets to grant India that necessary "clean, clear and unconditional" waiver to begin nuclear trade.

In the international circuit, it almost seems everybody is happy and getting something out of the deal. The IAEA thinks it got a lot out of India by letting it initial a document that is almost a "standard safeguards agreement". The Indians think they got whatever they had wanted from the IAEA, "not so perpetual" safeguards; the right to take "unspecified sovereign actions" that constitute corrective measures and a nod to make a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel to tide over disruptions.

The Americans unabashedly claim it to be a victory towards global non-proliferation as they suggest India will no longer be an outlier but well within that non-proliferation tent. For France it opens up a hitherto untouchable billion-dollar market to sell nuclear reactors and for Russia, another chance to stand by an old ally while making some money as well in the bargain. For the world it almost seems a "win-win" situation, yet domestic opposition cannot be wished away or underestimated either.
It is hard to explain that all Indian politicians are really trying to protect that ill-defined ethereal commodity called "national interest".
Looks like the international bodies also have their own version of this deal.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by ramana »

narya9, Carter was no firiend of India. His mother was though.She worked as a Peace Corps worker in India. Most of the NPA in Clinton admin cut their teeth in the Carter Admin. They were all junior flunkeys in the Carter admin and became grand poohbahs later on.

Carter told over an open mike that once he gets back to DC a blunt memo should be sent to India as they were not responsive on the nuke front. This was circa 1978.
vsudhir
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2173
Joined: 19 Jan 2006 03:44
Location: Dark side of the moon

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by vsudhir »

CRS,
Maybe this is wishful thinking, but if Unkil is really serious in co-opting India as a strrategic partner, the often touted counterweight to China theory, I will be convinced so if starting tomorrow, Unkil will come out and say that the so called 'global war on terror' includes TSP terror against India. And in every proclamation on GOAT, there is mention and admonishing of TSP state sponsored terror against India. Also, Unkil should make the current lavish funding to TSP contingent upon dismantling LeT and sundry India-specific terror appratus also along with so called "Al Quiada". Once Unkil does this, his mouthpiece media will follow suit, highligting TSP terror against India just as it does terror against Israel, 7/11 terror against UK etc. India's battle with TSP terror will have been half won then. If Unkil does just this, it will signal good intent on his part, and a lot of suspicions, and mutual acrimony from those like me opposing the deal will be dispelled.
A moon ago, this is precisely what I suggested using a different set of words. That as part of whatever grand bargain we have with unkil, we should *also* ask for TSP's head on a platter. Else, no deal, types. Course, took flak for my naiveté from esteemed forumites onlee. An India free of the TSP albatross would automatically catapult into a new league. IMO, perhaps GoI figures unkil's ditching TSP is only a matter of time, why spend precious bargaining capital on it, types?
vishwakarmaa
BRFite
Posts: 385
Joined: 19 Jun 2008 08:47

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by vishwakarmaa »

International bodies have no relevance in the game where interests of US corporations are involved. Afterall, US made these bodies.

Father holds the right to bend and break these bodies as he likes.
Rangudu
BRFite
Posts: 1751
Joined: 03 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by Rangudu »

Wishful thinking. Indian leaders and our chosen policies are as much to blame for TSP's current role as Unkil is. Who asked Vajpayee to talk to Mushy after all we have been through? Who asked Indira Gandhi to not push LoC=IB after 1971? Who asked GoI to not send a couple of divisions to fight under our own flag in Afghanistan? Asking Unkil to defang TSP would only make them :rotfl: at any Indian hopes of becoming a global power of any sort. We might as well ask Unkil to surrended Washington DC to us while we are at it.

This frickin deal has become a Rorschach test of sorts. Every person is projecting his or her own hopes, frustrations and ambitions on it.
a_kumar
BRFite
Posts: 481
Joined: 18 Jun 2008 23:53
Location: what about it?

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by a_kumar »

I will spell out something that probably hasn't come up yet.. First, let me plan the exit route for when I have to duck and run.. Ok.

Kangress : Petty and wants to hog limelight (well, it wants its equivalent of Pok-II, so understand pleeze!!)

BJP : Sore and indicisive player (No coherent strategy. But if the deal fails, the momentum will definitely help them)

Nuke Deal : Indo-US deal is good, with exception of Hyde. IAEA write-up is great.
Actually, I see this as something that can be tied to our growth and progress in next decade in press. But it is fill in the gap while thorium efforts bore fruitition. The arguments on strategic choices fall from too-expensive-to-breakaway-in-future to mine-will-be-so-big-I-can-get-away-with-anything. I don't know if we have the complete picture. But beyond this, here is my heartburn from a non-technical POV.

Kangress (Gandhi family particularly) doesn't have any share in the last great thing that happened in India.. POK-II. Yes, liberalization was there, but it was one-upped. And Vajpayee ended up eating the cake. In anycase, Gandhi family wasn't around to claim credit or be part of for either. Now, they desperately need something to survive on for the next 50 years. Even though Thorium will kick in, it will be slow and in a trickle and nothing too high profile. So, nothing beats this deal in terms of press.

MMS personally can claim score of "two" under his belt and can become India's "yugpurush". But, he has done his share of deeds, no contest there. However, MMS is no different from his last boss, PVNR. 5 yrs down the road, there wont be an MMS.

Its going to be all-Gandhi (half-indian and then quarter indian) for rest of our lifetime. It pains me to see such a useful deal falling in their lap. Its like fresh infusion of blood just in time for Rahul to take over. Gandhi family will claim credit for something that has been set in motion a long before current govt (even previous Cong govt's played a role, to be fair). And we will see more of this dynasty feeding off the Indian exchequer for another 50 years and continuing to eat into what we cherish about this civilization.

Oh.. btw, one one side.. :
- The Indo-US deal is a stop-gap step, so a temporary setback in big scheme of things.
- NPAs and US Congress are already used to this idea, kicking and screaming. So its out there now and not so much of an uphill task next time around.

On the otherside..
- US ego may be bruised (But this is a victory for freedom and democracy in India vonly!!. What can we do, we didn't have enough to sell it to our people).
- Indian diaspora which invested time and money into this has every reason to be dissapointed.

I still think this is a heavy price to pay by the nation, the way it is right now. Here I duck..
vsudhir
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2173
Joined: 19 Jan 2006 03:44
Location: Dark side of the moon

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by vsudhir »

deleted.
Last edited by vsudhir on 21 Jul 2008 06:30, edited 1 time in total.
paramu
BRFite
Posts: 669
Joined: 20 May 2008 11:38

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by paramu »

a_kumar wrote:
BJP : Sore and indicisive player (No coherent strategy. But if the deal fails, the momentum will definitely help them)
Can you explain this? Any clues for this inference.
Rangudu
BRFite
Posts: 1751
Joined: 03 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by Rangudu »

vsudhir,

If mockery is going to be your method of choice when posting replies, please do not expect me to respond to those flames. It's the only decent thing to do.
enqyoob
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2658
Joined: 06 Jul 2008 20:25

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by enqyoob »

Look on the bright side, a_kumar. The monsoon is delayed, fuel prices are going through the roof, probably the rupee is going to tank in the near future. War is coming in Iran, the Mid-East golden goose production line is going to dry up substantially. With Naxals gaining ground every day, Nayi Dilli 2009 will be like Moscow 1916 - the Revolution rolling over the hinterland, but parties going on unabated in the la-la-land of Dilli society.

No power to make cement, no power to make power lines, no fuel to build roads. So no investors for power plants. So no need for nuke deal. The next PM Comrade Karat can win applause at the Global Warming Summit by presenting India's great efforts to reduce development. Back to the Yindoo Rate of Growth. Bhavitavyam Bhavedeva. All is Maya. Back to navel-gazing and deep breaths. I would plan to retire to the Himalayas, except those are going to be called "Chun-Ling Mountains" and they'll ask for a passport and visa in the foothills.
vsudhir
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2173
Joined: 19 Jan 2006 03:44
Location: Dark side of the moon

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by vsudhir »

Rangudu wrote:vsudhir,

If mockery is going to be your method of choice when posting replies, please do not expect me to respond to those flames. It's the only decent thing to do.
Fair enough. Deleted. Have a nice day.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by shiv »

narayanan wrote:Look on the bright side, a_kumar. The monsoon is delayed, fuel prices are going through the roof, probably the rupee is going to tank in the near future. War is coming in Iran, the Mid-East golden goose production line is going to dry up substantially. With Naxals gaining ground every day, Nayi Dilli 2009 will be like Moscow 1916 - the Revolution rolling over the hinterland, but parties going on unabated in the la-la-land of Dilli society.

No power to make cement, no power to make power lines, no fuel to build roads. So no investors for power plants. So no need for nuke deal. The next PM Comrade Karat can win applause at the Global Warming Summit by presenting India's great efforts to reduce development. Back to the Yindoo Rate of Growth. Bhavitavyam Bhavedeva. All is Maya. Back to navel-gazing and deep breaths. I would plan to retire to the Himalayas, except those are going to be called "Chun-Ling Mountains" and they'll ask for a passport and visa in the foothills.

I don't know whether this is BJPs political game (free power for pumpsets) or some other politics, or the failed monsoon, but we are now having 6 hour power cuts a day in Bangalore. (after a gap of many years). 2 hours at a time at three different times.

Of course a person like me gets irritated but I don't really count do I - I have BOTH a 1500 VA UPS as well as a generator to make sure power is never far away at home for me.

As an aside - I nearly sold that generator - after having used it for a total of 6 hours in 6 years - mainly for testing and maintenance. But With relatives visiting from the US and much gaiety it is being used for 4 hours a day @ i liter per hour @ Rs 58.00 per liter. Power is not really a problem.

For me.
a_kumar
BRFite
Posts: 481
Joined: 18 Jun 2008 23:53
Location: what about it?

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by a_kumar »

paramu wrote:
a_kumar wrote:
BJP : Sore and indicisive player (No coherent strategy. But if the deal fails, the momentum will definitely help them)
Can you explain this? Any clues for this inference.
On one side, while pussy footing, they say they will support after redrafting. Its almost like they are sore about not happening on their watch and hesitate to be anti-US. On the other hand, the indecision has allowed confusion to prevail with respect to Akali Dal and Siv Sena (maybe not so bad now). Now look at Thapar's article (ok.. credibility aside) and BJP MPs themselves, whom Congress claims to be on their side. It seems BJP are not completely in control with a clear stand.

As for how momentum will help them: As is, one doen't have to do much to trigger anti-incumbuncy. Now, add inflation, horse-trading, and spending so much time on something that has no immediate impact. It is difficult to come out of it, IMO.
arnab
BRFite
Posts: 1136
Joined: 13 Dec 2005 09:08

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by arnab »

shiv wrote:
narayanan wrote:Look on the bright side, a_kumar. The monsoon is delayed, fuel prices are going through the roof, probably the rupee is going to tank in the near future. War is coming in Iran, the Mid-East golden goose production line is going to dry up substantially. With Naxals gaining ground every day, Nayi Dilli 2009 will be like Moscow 1916 - the Revolution rolling over the hinterland, but parties going on unabated in the la-la-land of Dilli society.

No power to make cement, no power to make power lines, no fuel to build roads. So no investors for power plants. So no need for nuke deal. The next PM Comrade Karat can win applause at the Global Warming Summit by presenting India's great efforts to reduce development. Back to the Yindoo Rate of Growth. Bhavitavyam Bhavedeva. All is Maya. Back to navel-gazing and deep breaths. I would plan to retire to the Himalayas, except those are going to be called "Chun-Ling Mountains" and they'll ask for a passport and visa in the foothills.

I don't know whether this is BJPs political game (free power for pumpsets) or some other politics, or the failed monsoon, but we are now having 6 hour power cuts a day in Bangalore. (after a gap of many years). 2 hours at a time at three different times.

Of course a person like me gets irritated but I don't really count do I - I have BOTH a 1500 VA UPS as well as a generator to make sure power is never far away at home for me.

As an aside - I nearly sold that generator - after having used it for a total of 6 hours in 6 years - mainly for testing and maintenance. But With relatives visiting from the US and much gaiety it is being used for 4 hours a day @ i liter per hour @ Rs 58.00 per liter. Power is not really a problem.

For me.
I too hope now that the deal should fail - purely shadefreude though :) Atleast I would like to see NDA / BJP/Commies whoever get us a better deal (or an 'unconditional' deal). In the meantime why worry? 6 hours powercuts, 12 hour powercuts, slow economic growth. Small price to pay for bums and 'honour' .
In the meantime perhaps many antidealers will sign up (or have already signed up) to this conditional deal:

I hereby declare, on oath, that I absolutely and entirely renounce and abjure all allegiance and fidelity to any foreign prince, potentate, state, or sovereignty of whom or which I have heretofore been a subject or citizen; that I will support and defend the Constitution and laws of the United States of America against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I will bear arms on behalf of the United States when required by the law; that I will perform noncombatant service in the Armed Forces of the United States when required by the law; that I will perform work of national importance under civilian direction when required by the law; and that I take this obligation freely without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; so help me God.
enqyoob
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2658
Joined: 06 Jul 2008 20:25

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by enqyoob »

But that way they get to be members of a New Clear Weapon State... No intrusive IAEA inspections.. only EPA, DHS, OSHA, IRS, CIS, ICE, ABET, ISO, u-name-it.

BTW, this just in:
MPs get dearer, going rate touches Rs 100 crore


I can reveal it now: I was offered Rs. 10000 crore to vote for the UPA, but I refused. 8)
Raja Ram
BRFite
Posts: 587
Joined: 30 Mar 1999 12:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by Raja Ram »

narayanan saar,
noted and I will do an article at the earliest.

Gentle readers,

We have heard many claims in the recent past that India is now an assertive path, confident of her future. We have heard many lament that we are a soft state, we are not forward thinking. We have complained ad nauseum about the missed opportunities of the past, of trusting the untrustworthy etc.

Here is a chance yet again. The world is calling India to action. This is an opportunity. Not the full opportunity that we wished for but substantially similar to what we have been working towards.

If we are too loose this opportunity, there are many to blame, in the government and outside. This is the reality. Any way, events are taking their own course. We cannot change anything but watch from reality. But those of us here have watched and studied India's rise should note that if this deal does not go through for political reasons inside India, then it will be yet another case of missed opportunities.

Personally I am not convinced that this is the best deal that we could have got. If we had done better we could have got something closer to what we need. But real world is made of realpolitik and the need of the hour is to learn from the "Art of the Possible". If India is indeed assertive and confident, it should not have doubts in her own ability to preserve her national soverignity, treaty or no treaty. It should go ahead and national minded parties like BJP should come in and save this treaty. It is not about saving the UPA government, let it sink or swim based on its performance. It is about a Nation's chance to assert itself in this world. Are we upto it?

Just my thoughts
Rangudu
BRFite
Posts: 1751
Joined: 03 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by Rangudu »

vsudhir,

Let's just be careful with the tone. As to TSP, it is not about aiming high. Its just that the idea of asking another country for "help" with TSP is in itself pretty pathetic.

As Raja Ram eloquently posted above, this deal is neither exceptional nor a clear trap. With a clean NSG waiver, this deal represents an opportunity for us. We can reject it now but the manner of and reasons for rejection have to be commensurate with our global status. Rejecting it because we want a super perfect deal would only make us a global joke. Rejecting it because one of the two biggest political parties did not get their wish for a JPC is again flippant, especially when key leaders of that party got exclusive briefings on the deal. Rejecting it because Chinese puppets were able to manipulate our system is again quite pathetic.

Serious opportunities demand serious discussion. Conspiracy mongering and blaming "hidden hands" would only make us a global lightweight.
archan
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6823
Joined: 03 Aug 2007 21:30
Contact:

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by archan »

Raja Ram wrote: We have heard many claims in the recent past that India is now an assertive path, confident of her future. We have heard many lament that we are a soft state, we are not forward thinking. We have complained ad nauseum about the missed opportunities of the past, of trusting the untrustworthy etc.

Here is a chance yet again. The world is calling India to action.
Even though the world may think of India as a single unit, from what I have seen it is not. Have we had coherent policies throughout 60 years of our existence? I know we have done excellent work in some aspects, including nuclear energy, missile and aircraft tech. but in terms of improving upon the democratic system it seems India is struggling. Various groups of netas are having a say in the matter of national interest. And these netas all have their local scores to settle - someone wants a favorable CBI chief, someone wants the cases against them removed, yada yada. Every 5 yrs or less, the govt. changes and the policies could completely change but some policies need to be coherent and foreign policy is one of them IMO. An IK Gujral can come and mess up years of hard earned sources in intelligence. Just like that.
That is what projects the image of the nation the the outer world. Unfortunately that image is coming out to be unfocused and confused at the moment (IMO).
I don't care about the deal - there are good things either way, there are compromises either way. Like you said, the truth lies somewhere in the middle - not in the gloom and doom of conspiracy theories of nuke-nudeness and foreign hidden hands and not in the dreams of becoming an instant superpower free of TSP and Cheenie jeanie.
However, our politicians have shown yet again that our democracy needs more time to grow up. We will just have to wait it out.
sraj
BRFite
Posts: 260
Joined: 12 Feb 2006 07:04

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by sraj »

NRao wrote:
It all depend how both the deals are interpreted. Like I have said before, the Indian interpretation is all that counts - for which India will need a strong backed leader.
I am not sure how we can be so confident that "the Indian interpretation is all that counts".

This is where Indian membership of the UN Security Council (the ultimate interpreter of international agreements - see Iran case) becomes of utmost relevance before this deal is "fully" consummated.

The US (and the other P-5) will argue that they need the ambiguous wording in the different agreements with India in order to maintain the fig-leaf of respectability for their tottering (because of their own actions!!) non-proliferation regimes. Any self-respecting Indian leader (this GoI or the next) can perfectly reasonably counter that, in that case, (s)he is duty bound to require UNSC membership as part of the deal so that India is protected from being held hostage in the future to the selfish interests of the P-5.

It is interesting that US endorsement of India's UNSC membership and quick action on UN reform were very much part of the package being discussed before the July 2005 Washington visit of MMS. A few days before the March 2006 Bush visit to Delhi, MMS expressed strong confidence, in an interview to Charlie Rose, that this would be announced during the Bush visit. One of only two questions allowed to be asked by Indian journalists to Bush during the March 2006 press conference dealt with this issue, to which Bush responded with some mumbo-jumbo.

Very curious how this issue has fallen off the radar. UNSC membership is integral to this deal if ambiguously worded agreements are to be regarded merely as a glass half full, and not as traps into which India is being asked to willingly walk in!

International relations do not function on the basis of trust. It is all a question of capability, not intent. Else, with India's impeccable track record on proliferation, the 'international community' should just trust India without wanting to put in elaborate safeguards! Right?

Indian 'safeguards' against a self-interested, injurious interpretation by the P-5 of ambiguities in India's international agreements consists of UNSC membership. Alternately, the agreements can be made crystal clear. After all, India is supposed to be entering into these agreements voluntarily, not under duress as a nation defeated in war. The 'international community' has a clear choice.
Manny
BRFite
Posts: 859
Joined: 07 Apr 2006 22:16
Location: Texas

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by Manny »

CRamS wrote:
Rangudu wrote:CRS,

Don't put words in my mouth. I have made my position on the deal very clear. I'll support it as long as the IAEA safeguards and NSG waiver are clean. The first one is okay. The NSG, we'll see. As to the future, it will depend on what we make of it. We'll have better options with this deal than without. If the same lack of speed we see in infrastructure projects, defence purchases etc. happens on the reactor front, the progress will be marginal. But the choice will be ours. I'd rather be in a job that has $1M max annual bonus than the one with $100K max bonus. At the end of the day, I may end up with a $35k bonus because of my laziness but the choice is mine.

Anyway, I hope you tore up your Prakash Karat fan club membership card after the last post.
Absolutely, I never was in the first place. But it gives me some confidence in the deal that guys like you, N^3, Amber etc see value in it after satisfactory IAEA & NSG dealings.

As I said before, there are pros and cons to the deal, buy my opposition is based on Unkil's CRE intent ad general untrustworthiness. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but if Unkil is really serious in co-opting India as a strrategic partner, the often touted counterweight to China theory, I will be convinced so if starting tomorrow, Unkil will come out and say that the so called 'global war on terror' includes TSP terror against India. And in every proclamation on GOAT, there is mention and admonishing of TSP state sponsored terror against India. Also, Unkil should make the current lavish funding to TSP contingent upon dismantling LeT and sundry India-specific terror appratus also along with so called "Al Quiada". Once Unkil does this, his mouthpiece media will follow suit, highligting TSP terror against India just as it does terror against Israel, 7/11 terror against UK etc. India's battle with TSP terror will have been half won then. If Unkil does just this, it will signal good intent on his part, and a lot of suspicions, and mutual acrimony from those like me opposing the deal will be dispelled.

I think, you need to demand the same from India's left first before demanding that from the US.

I'd like the Indian Lefties to say loud and clear, Pakistan and China are enemy states.

I find it odd that we expect the US to clean our neighborhood instead of doing it ourselves. Remember how we gave up Prisoners to the Taliban on account of that hijack long time ago?

Manny
CRamS
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6865
Joined: 07 Oct 2006 20:54

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by CRamS »

Its not about asking Unkil to help defang TSP. Its about asking Unkil that if India is to be co-opted as a strategic partner, it has to be treated as such. US can show its serious intent, not by fighting India's war with TSP, rather, its about US not aiding and abeting TSP's war against India through generous support of TSP's India terror making machibe: TSPA/ISI. Clearly strategic partners would give each this much mutual respect. Short of that, I am suspiscous and just can't around to trusting Unkil, especially the ambiguosuly worded parts in the nuke deal.
csharma
BRFite
Posts: 694
Joined: 12 Jul 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by csharma »

Guys, looks like UPA will scrape through. That seems like the best possible outcome.

1) The deal inspite of its shortcomings cannot be totally bad. This is just my VHO. So the deal is done.
2) BJP gets to play the role of the opposition and is not seen as Govt's B team. Initially it was taking a backseat role in this trust vote and had to take a more proactive role as Mayawati and Left started taking the initiative.
3) Mayawati and Left do not come to power and are kept at bay at least for the timebeing.

Forumites will recognize that a third front type of govt at this stage will spell disaster for this country. I would much rather have a Congress + BJP govt to kill these small castiest players who will ruin the country.
sraj
BRFite
Posts: 260
Joined: 12 Feb 2006 07:04

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by sraj »

narayanan wrote:
Best bet is to take the deal now and get it through COTUS, and then wait 4 years for the backlash midterm elections, then point out that the Hyde is obstructing US business competitiveness, and eliminate the bad parts of it on those grounds. Meanwhile make sure that there is a desi equivalent passed in India that intelligently defines Indian interests and law on these matters, as a P-6 member would do.
Given the overall circumstances, this seems a reasonable way forward, provided:

1. an absolutely clean, unconditional NSG Waiver is available; and

2. no international agreement signed by India related to this deal "enters into force" until India is a UNSC member on par with the P-5 (prep work on reactor and fuel supply agreements etc. can begin -- this prep work will in any case take several years).

The irony of this 3-year saga is that this deal was supposed to bury the past history of mistrust between the US and India, and serve as a concrete example of US good intent. It has actually had exactly the opposite effect, reviving all the worst fears about US intent wrt India, and reopening old wounds.

To recap:

a) J18 did not arouse strong opposition from the broad center of Indian politics, apart from a few words of caution for MMS.

b) The "goalpost shifting" episode relating to FBRs in the run-up to March 2006 rekindled bad memories and doubts about US intent.

c) These doubts turned into full-fledged opposition only after the sordid manner in which Hyde was rammed through in Nov/Dec 2006 (by, lest we forget, a US Congress that was still in Republican hands in both the House and Senate!) and despite MMS breaking protocol by pleading directly with Republican Senator Bill Frist (the Senate Majority Leader at that time) not to put in many of the objectionable clauses.

d) Seven months later, the ambiguities and loopholes in the 123 agreement only intensified this opposition and further reduced this GoI's credibility.

e) Net result: there is very little trust left today, and this GoI's repeated failure to deliver on solemn assurances to Parliament has eroded its credibility, and its ability to carry forward an agreement with such far-reaching implications.

It may be worthwhile for the US establishment watching this spectacle and smugly ruing India's chaotic democracy and therefore its 'fitness' to function on par with the P-5 going forward, to ruminate on:

i) how the US itself handled the post-WWI Woodrow Wilson initiatives wrt to Europe; and

ii) how much the US itself may be responsible for the current situation by overreaching in its attempt to unilaterally rewrite, through the Hyde Act, the Bush-MMS understandings of July 18, 2005 (J18) and March 2, 2006 (M2)(at one point during these protracted negotiations, there was a comment made about 'greedy Indians'; could it be perhaps that some 'greedy Americans' will end up robbing Bush and the US of a signal foreign policy achievement?).
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by ramana »

Someone asked me by e-mail that since I found nothing wrong with the IAEA safeguards agreement, that my earlier objections to the deal were no longer there.

I told him that I had welcomed the J18 and M3 agreements and the article is still there in IRF. However with the poison pills included in the hyde Act, the necessity for test to proff future weapons even as BARC and DAE had stated right after the 1998 tests make me circumspect about the deal. They still have to test one day or the other. And MMS govt has stated in a press release after meeting Amar Singh of SP, that they retain the right to test in supreme national interests. This was a new and markedly different statement that had not been seen earlier form the govt. I wish its reaffirmed in the Lok Sabha.

As to the IAEA draft safeguards I did not find anything remiss there. If there are poison pills they might be elsewhere and yet to be seen. I did not say more than that either on BR or the e-mails.

Hope it calrifies what I am thinking.
Tamang
BRFite
Posts: 698
Joined: 19 Jun 2002 11:31
Location: Nai Dilli, Bharatvarsh

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by Tamang »

Loksabha proceedings have begun. Mr.Advani currently speaking.

http://loksabha.nic.in/ls/audio/live_pr ... _sabha.htm
pauldevis
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 31
Joined: 14 Sep 2003 11:31
Location: India
Contact:

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by pauldevis »

3 hour power cuts in Pune. But that's ok, since we have super-rakshaks living in massa land in their air conditioned rooms coming to work in their SUV's protecting our interests. Thank God these guys cannot be bribed

How come with Injuns living in India receiving bribe money from everyone from lobbyists, commies, EJ's, and something called the 'Rockefeller' (spell ?) foundation, I haven't received a single paisa :((

Is there a form I have to fill up somewhere to receive money from them ? Do I have to bring my ration card ?
BRF'ites please advice
sraj
BRFite
Posts: 260
Joined: 12 Feb 2006 07:04

Re: Indian Nuclear issues - News and Discussion 16 july 2008

Post by sraj »

Bookies offer Rs 50 cr to MPs, Sena worried
Very interesting report. Where do the bookies get the money (and incentive) to offer Rs 50 crores each to an MP? Because a lot of money is betting on a UPA win?
MUMBAI: Despite brave talk by the Shiv Sena leadership that all its 12 MPs will vote against the UPA government on July 22, there's considerable nervousness within the party.

It's learnt that at least three of its MPs have been approached not only by the Congress and NCP, but also by bookies.

It appears that the bookies led by Hitesh Samrat and Ajay Maheshwari — they consider UPA government as the odds-on favourite to survive the trust vote — have developed huge stakes in the continuance of the UPA government and are going all out to try and fix the outcome of the trust vote.

"The going rate for an MP has shot up to a mind-boggling Rs 50 crore with 50% being the down payment," said a senior Maharashtra intelligence official on Sunday. More attention is being paid to those MPs who have lost their constituencies in the delimitation exercise. "The reasoning is that since these MPs have no constituency to fight from, they'll be more vulnerable to allurements," a Sena leader admitted.

After last night's meeting at Shiv Sena boss Balasaheb Thackeray's residence, Matoshri, leader of Sena's parliamentary group Anant Gite insisted that the party was intact and that all the 12 MPs would vote against the UPA. But now the party is taking extra precautions on "vulnerable" MPs. Even if one MP cross votes or abstains, it will be a huge loss of face for Sena executive president Uddhav Thackeray. That's why his detractors outside the party are working overtime to woo Sena MPs.

It's learnt that two leading bookies are camping in an upscale New Delhi hotel and contacting their potential targets. The Congress and NCP recognize that they stand to lose heavily if the UPA government falls and early elections are held.

"Anti-incumbency is so strong in Maharashtra that it will be cakewalk for the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance if elections are held now," a senior Congress minister admitted.

"The consequences of a defeat on July 22 go beyond Lok Sabha elections. They will impact the assembly polls next," he added.

Meanwhile, political parties are hiring private detectives to keep a tab on their MPs. K Krishnan, chairman of Venus Detectives, told TOI: "We've been hired by some parties to keep a watch on their MPs and major players. We are not interested in politics and are only executing a professional job of shadowing those whose names have been given to us by politicians."
Locked