India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

p_saggu
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby p_saggu » 01 Sep 2008 08:36

And testing thermonuclear weapons and having a verified H-bomb design does not mean the story ends.
The chinese for example did 6 - 8 odd tests in the end just to make their weapons safer. The French - the ignonimity of it all, turned to the chinese to test for them!!! Surely there are more skeletons in the Franco-chini cupboards, given that these two were the last holdouts at the CTBT.
The guru's may elaborate, there are many other technologies to develop and verify. Including some that the world is yet to unveil.
Last edited by p_saggu on 01 Sep 2008 08:41, edited 1 time in total.

arnab
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby arnab » 01 Sep 2008 08:39

sanjaykumar wrote:One trillion dollars is a short hand way of expressing profits to be made.

No scorpene, no investment in the automobile sector. No thingmajig for laser ignition at Indore, no investment in cellphones or Indian media or Bollywood or cricket or solar power or agro-products or health care or aviation........ With a large and growing economy you suddenly acquire friends and influence people. I always found it an easier way than Dale Carnegie's-just show the money.


How much of your scenario transpired in 1998 when China was not breathing down Uncle Sam's neck? For how long?


Uh - are you seriously thinking that India would block even the 'available' avenues of investment? The last time that idiocy was attempted was when Uncle Georgie threw out Coke and IBM in 1978. Attracting foreign investment is not like a tap that you turn on or off at a whim. Any such action would make foriegn firms far more vary of entering India at a later date. Foriegn firms do like policy stability. The rest of the world might occassionally bail out lunatic nations like Pakistan or North Korea, but if we have any 'future responsible world power' aspirations, we must avoid behaving like a crazy nuke armed nation.

In 1998, price of oil was $20, Now it is about $120 India raised $6 bn through RIB, so even if we hold 'import consumption' constant, India would have to raise atleast $36 bn through RIBs. Do also see what happened to India during the forex crisis of 1990-91. As to for 'how long' - it does not matter. Re 1998, Sept 11 was 'fortituous' for us. Such exogenous 'help' may not come again. Besides, delays in critical areas of defence or infrastructure preparedness might irrevocably alter the balance of power in the region. We already have a huge 'resentful' population who feel that they have been denied their opportunities in a 'shining india'. I do not wish to add to that population, a group of young educated Indians, wondering what the hell did a second round of test achieve ? (No good arguing that a TN weapon was tested. 'Testing' |= 'proveing' that India has a TN weapon. So folks being asked to 'sacrifice' their careers, even for a few years, might be justified in asking - what the hell for?)

Manny
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby Manny » 01 Sep 2008 08:45

The moral position pushed by India has played its part and they are not impressed!

:shock:

Time to change game play.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby sanjaykumar » 01 Sep 2008 09:04

A lesson in economics, you may want to sit closer to the screen. If my girlfriend won't love me, I know her sister will.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby pradeepe » 01 Sep 2008 09:07

I find it hard to buy that NZ has legitimate concerns. If they had thought this through on their own for half a nano-sec they would have realized that helping bring in India would have notably been their best attempt at a nuke free world, however pie-in-the-sky that seems like for now. So all of their concerns are worth nothing. They are panda's catspaw.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby arnab » 01 Sep 2008 09:10

sanjaykumar wrote:A lesson in economics, you may want to sit closer to the screen. If my girlfriend won't love me, I know her sister will.


Not if you have been branded as a rapist :)

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby amit » 01 Sep 2008 09:23

Wow have been away for a few days and missed all the fire and brimstone on the thread! :D

I hope folks here realise that if the NSG exemption does not come up with acceptable language and we walk away, showing displeasure is not going to be a zero sum game.

That can be done without bursting patakas which should be done only when we need to validate something and not to show the world how :(( :(( we feel because we were not give our nooklear goodies.

A**holes like Ayotollah Kimball will be looking for exactly that kind of behaviour and a post facto justification of denying India a clear exemption.

What India can and probably will do - our babus are past masters at this - is send out calibrated signals. I'm sure suddenly the Iran pipeline will start looking like a viable option and probably Pranab babu will pay a visit to Tehran.

There will suddenly be more reports about the ATV and how it will change the geo-political equation for India etc. And suddenly Austria's turbines would seem a bit too costly for India and hey didn't everyone know that Samsung, LG phones are way better than Nokia?

There even may be more trucks going to and fro from Pokharan during bright sunny days when visibility from the sky is at its best.

And that four reactor deal with Russia just may come to pass.

IMO NSG folks are doing a lot of tightrope walking. They understand if the elephant walks away from this one then it's not going to come back in a hurry. And all reports seem to suggest that the elephant has made that abundantly clear to the key players.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby arnab » 01 Sep 2008 09:27

amit wrote:Wow have been away for a few days and missed all the fire and brimstone on the thread! :D

I hope folks here realise that if the NSG exemption does not come up with acceptable language and we walk away, showing displeasure is not going to be a zero sum game.

That can be done without bursting patakas which should be done only when we need to validate something and not to show the world how :(( :(( we feel because we were not give our nooklear goodies.

A**holes like Ayotollah Kimball will be looking for exactly that kind of behaviour and a post facto justification of denying India a clear exemption.

What India can and probably will do - our babus are past masters at this - is send out calibrated signals. I'm sure suddenly the Iran pipeline will start looking like a viable option and probably Pranab babu will pay a visit to Tehran.

There will suddenly be more reports about the ATV and how it will change the geo-political equation for India etc. And suddenly Austria's turbines would seem a bit too costly for India and hey didn't everyone know that Samsung, LG phones are way better than Nokia?

There even may be more trucks going to and fro from Pokharan during bright sunny days when visibility from the sky is at its best.

And that four reactor deal with Russia just may come to pass.

IMO NSG folks are doing a lot of tightrope walking. They understand if the elephant walks away from this one then it's not going to come back in a hurry. And all reports seem to suggest that the elephant has made that abundantly clear to the key players.


zigackly :) why 'scorch' the earth when we can use PGMs?

amit
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby amit » 01 Sep 2008 09:29

pradeepe wrote:I find it hard to buy that NZ has legitimate concerns. If they had thought this through on their own for half a nano-sec they would have realized that helping bring in India would have notably been their best attempt at a nuke free world, however pie-in-the-sky that seems like for now. So all of their concerns are worth nothing. They are panda's catspaw.


Boss you've got to remember there's an election in the offing in that country. Just like Indian politicians do, Lady Helen is just playing to the galleries.

And since they have so little trade with India and have already sold themselves to the Panda with a Free Trade agreement, what do they have to lose by antagonising the elephant?

amit
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby amit » 01 Sep 2008 09:39

arnab wrote: zigackly :) why 'scorch' the earth when we can use PGMs?


:D Really like your spelling!

The threat of use (either PGMs, Nuclear weapons or just a cane) is more effective than the actual use.

After a possible middle figure response at the NSG meeting by India, every major and minor (there are many in NSG) power will be waiting with baited breadth to see India's reaction.

Let them sweat while we take calibrated (re)actions against the naysayers. One common report that's been coming out of the pre-NSG, -IAEA meetings is the new aggressive Indian diplomacy - you're with us or against us. If these reports are true and if it's not a passing phenomenon then I'd say that's the biggest gain from all this tamasha since 2005.

Countries like the US and China get their way not because they flaunt their military muscle all the time. It's because of their aggressive no nonsense diplomacy. If India can keep to that then all the moral posturing which Manny rightfully referred to is already a thing of the past.

Hopefully folks who tried to look the elephant in the eye will soon find out about that.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby disha » 01 Sep 2008 09:51

amit wrote:...And since they have so little trade with India and have already sold themselves to the Panda with a Free Trade agreement, what do they have to lose by antagonising the elephant?...


That is so stupid of them then! It is not our loss, it is theirs - they will not have anything to balance against on the bargaining table when Panda calls on it. Reminds me of the Opal mines in Australia and the Opal industry - mostly owned by the Japs - just because the Ozies were too busy about making jokes on the two wrongs and one mrs. whright :wink:

amit
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby amit » 01 Sep 2008 09:57

disha wrote:
amit wrote:...And since they have so little trade with India and have already sold themselves to the Panda with a Free Trade agreement, what do they have to lose by antagonising the elephant?...


That is so stupid of them then! It is not our loss, it is theirs - they will not have anything to balance against on the bargaining table when Panda calls on it. Reminds me of the Opal mines in Australia and the Opal industry - mostly owned by the Japs - just because the Ozies were too busy about making jokes on the two wrongs and one mrs. whright :wink:


You're spot on Disha.

That's why the Aussies are having a pause in their relations with the Panda.

Their "Oh so loyal!" Mandarin speaking PM has been subtly "insulted" and some even say "humiliated" by Beijing. The Panda not only want Aussie raw material but also wants to own the mines - just as imperialist powers of yesteryear's used to do in third world countries.

Hence the Aussie soft pedal of non-proliferation at the NSG and even reports of Aussies saying the Indians were appreciative of their efforts to bring their Kiwi cousins on board.

The Kiwis are lower down on the learning curve regarding the Panda's needs and wants. They'll come on board eventually.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby disha » 01 Sep 2008 10:06

arnab wrote:
Uh - are you seriously thinking that India would block even the 'available' avenues of investment? The last time that idiocy was attempted was when Uncle Georgie threw out Coke and IBM in 1978. Attracting foreign investment is not like a tap that you turn on or off at a whim. Any such action would make foriegn firms far more vary of entering India at a later date. Foriegn firms do like policy stability. The rest of the world might occassionally bail out lunatic nations like Pakistan or North Korea, but if we have any 'future responsible world power' aspirations, we must avoid behaving like a crazy nuke armed nation.

In 1998, price of oil was $20, Now it is about $120 India raised $6 bn through RIB, so even if we hold 'import consumption' constant, India would have to raise atleast $36 bn through RIBs. Do also see what happened to India during the forex crisis of 1990-91. As to for 'how long' - it does not matter. Re 1998, Sept 11 was 'fortituous' for us. Such exogenous 'help' may not come again. Besides, delays in critical areas of defence or infrastructure preparedness might irrevocably alter the balance of power in the region. We already have a huge 'resentful' population who feel that they have been denied their opportunities in a 'shining india'. I do not wish to add to that population, a group of young educated Indians, wondering what the hell did a second round of test achieve ? (No good arguing that a TN weapon was tested. 'Testing' |= 'proveing' that India has a TN weapon. So folks being asked to 'sacrifice' their careers, even for a few years, might be justified in asking - what the hell for?)


India has a TN weapon. Period. Either you believe it or you will not. If you do not - then further rounds of testings will still not prove it in naysayers.

Now, now TN is soooo easy to design, in fact before the Ruskies decided to build the atum bum they build the cake bum [the sloika]. It was only because of the fear of Stalin that they scientists decided to take the safe route and explode the atum bum. This was the time when the fastest super computer was slower than a casio calculator and consuming more power than a small desi town!

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby disha » 01 Sep 2008 10:11

amit wrote:Their "Oh so loyal!" Mandarin speaking PM has been subtly "insulted" and some even say "humiliated" by Beijing. The Panda not only want Aussie raw material but also wants to own the mines - just as imperialist powers of yesteryear's used to do in third world countries....

The Kiwis are lower down on the learning curve regarding the Panda's needs and wants. They'll come on board eventually.


The kiwis have a knee-jerk reaction to whatever Ozies do - something like Bakis. They will come around but by then the worry is that the battle will be lost. Anyway, the way the Oz PM was treated was fun - he basically ended up proving himself to be the manchurian candidate! And it was their fore fathers who wanted to take the Opium war into Peking. Panda never forgets - and the memory of an elephant is legendary.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby ShauryaT » 01 Sep 2008 10:17

narayanan wrote:But that is not the reason why there are people clamoring for tests. It is, pure and simple, that they WANT to see the Indo-US CIVILIAN nuclear deal derailed, and they WANT to see India's stature in the world brought down. For various reasons. Maybe some are indeed NPAs in mufti. Maybe some are Pakis. Maybe some are communists, or even Chinese agents, Maybe some are diehard loyalists of a certain party that dreams of coming to power in the next elections, and willing to achieve that at the cost of severely damaging India.

So yeah, calling those types irresponsible, and their views idiotic (I was trying to be polite and not call them Pakis on the theory that one should never ascribe to malice that which is perfectly explained as stupidity) makes me unwelcome at BRF. The "B" stands for "Beijing" I assume? Yeah, hit the :(( button, NPA dummies!
What you have not achieved through reason, you want to by shouting. Go ahead, impress every one here on how your views are more superior to senior retired personnel, strategic security analysts, retd. DAE chairmen and an entire political party wedded to the idea of Indian security.


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