India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

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ramana
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by ramana »

The Physics Today article is worth reading again and again. I am concerned firstly with the TSP connection and then the remarks about PRC capability.

One of he writer of the PT article who was designer and held office in US govt says:

- In 1982 Deng authorized the transfer of weapon technology and designs to TSP. They don't tell what they got in return. 1982 was around the time Mrs G came back to power and there were reports she might want to test in 1983 and her friends like Haskar (CPI sympathizer) dissuaded her from testing and PC Alexander's office was the source of leaks to the West.
- The writers say TSP design was tested in May 26 1990. That was the year of the Kashmir escalation with VP Singh and all that hungama. This test was the 35th in the PRC database. The yield is reported to be be between 15-65 kt here :eek: In fairness the value is in brackets (11.5kt). if this was Chic-4 then that is ~ 12-30kt. If these were tested stuff then why did TSP test in 1998? Looks like self goal?
- Also recall KP Nayar (WKK #1) had interviewed AQK in 1987 and there was revealed that TSP had the BUM. and that caused the rollback of Brasstacks. So AQK was lying as usual.

- If all this points to TSP having something of the order of 15kt say then what is the Tinner files that say its half the size and twice as powerful as CHIC-4? Was AQK selling boosted designs in the laptop and that's what got destroyed by the Swiss?

Indian establishment should pore over the details and compare with what they know of the TSP China cooperation.


If the neutron bomb worked after four tries then the test database has to be updated to be 49 tests instead of 45 tests. Then it begs the question how many else failed?
About PRC the article is a coming out party for the PRC. Its involved in testing for France, steals from USA, copies SU designs, and has German data from WWII!
Really all sources program. Looks like there was a lot of indirect proliferation from the US in particular.

The question comes why now at this stage a former US official is certifying the PRC as teh premier weapon power of Asia? Is it a triumphant declaration related to Indian NSG waiver by acknowledging the PRC's lead in nukes versus the stunted Indian effort stuck with the voluntary moratorium?

Dont tell me the review process too timed this!
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by ShauryaT »

archan wrote:Question: The Iran thread has posts from renukb that show the Ruskies are threatening big time of upping the ante against Unkil in response to the proposed NATO membership of Georgia/Ukraine. If their relations are so bad, why are they still in the unkil-founded NSG? are there chances that they may leave NSG anytime soon? if yes, and supposing that the N-deal does not go through, what are the prospects of a Indo-Russian N-deal? Do the Ruskies have what the yindoos want?
Archan: I am opposed to this deal. But imagining the rekindling of the cold war, would be st*pid on Russia's part. And, India would be st*pid, st*pid, st*pid to latch onto any such thing. Opposing this deal, does not translate to opposing the US. Nuclear energy is not worth the purusing, at those costs.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by ShauryaT »

Ramana: Other sources time the Chini test on behalf of TSP to 1984. IG came back to power in 79/80.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sanjaykumar »

Stillman's article has nothing to do with the NSG, he has been in court against the US governement for a number of years over his book.
India would not let an American access to anything comparable, certainly not a director of technical intelligence at Los Alamos-culturally not Brahmin enough, if I understand the Indian bomb establishment (I may be wrong). I think that remark about third world political bombs is meant to refer to India-sour grapes etc etc.


Also the Klaus Fuchs connection is just totally novel infornation. What exactly was China's contribution to the Chinese bomb?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by SSridhar »

ShauryaT wrote:Ramana: Other sources time the Chini test on behalf of TSP to 1984. IG came back to power in 79/80.
Yes, circa 1984/1985 was when the Lop Nor test took place for Pakistan.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote: - The writers say TSP design was tested in May 26 1990.
Ramana, the 1984/1985 test was based not only on China-4 design of 1966 but also based on Chinese HEU. It is possible that there was a second test in Lop Nor 1990 that used the Pakistani HEU.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Arun_S »

narayanan wrote:
These were some nuclear experts like "David Allbright" that pronounced Indian Agni's blunt shape to argue for its expected inaccuracy and primitiveness. The fools are eating crow manure now I guess. The following picture is from BR website: "US Trident ICBMs now switching to blunt nose separating shockwave Mk4A RV design. Uncanny similarity with Indian Agni-RV"
The Eastern RV gyan will now be repackaged as originally coming from leading Yamri Khan musharraf.


Excuse me, but the computational scheme called Moretti Time-Marching Finite Difference Solution to the Blunt Body Hypersonic problem, was developed in the 1960s/70s precisely for the purpose of ICBM re-entry vehicles. That was to put on a routine basis, what had until then been done by wind tunnel or field flight experimentation.
US did the research but never changed their RV from a hybrid of heat sink and ablative. This IMHO is the first time US is deploying separating shock ablative nose cone RV for fleet ballistic weapon (I.e.not using heat sink at all). Breathing modernism again.

No boasting of the bad and incompetent Indian "Scout" copycats in DRDO or the empty boast of Prafools of BARC, just that for a change Chacha is behind the curve, suffering from cost of undoing the concrete poured to build thousands of warheads standardized to proven but old technology. Not often one gets to rub the nose of Chacha.
What is shown here is a very simple cone with a hemispherical nose. This is by far the most common shape for the noses of all hypersonic vehicles. Exactly where, may I ask, have you seen sharp-nosed hypersonic re-entry vehicles?
Check for yourself the details and the tip diameter of W76 to see if it is sharp nosed or blunt separating shockwave type. Revisit other Fleet BM also and see what you find.

For more on aforesaid non linear yield stress regime pls refer to: "From Polaris to Trident: The Development of US Fleet Ballistic Missile technology" By SPINARDI, Cambridge University Press.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sum »

RajeshA wrote:That is a very interesting Article in PhysicsToday:

The Chinese nuclear tests: 1964 - 1996
Stilman's visit to the SINR (05.04.1990) also produced his first insight into the extensive hospitality extended to Pakistani nuclear scientists during that same late-1980s time period. As we shall see, that cooperation, initiated earlier in the decade, led to a joint nuclear test in China soon after Stillman's departure.
Is there any such article on the Indian nuclear fraternity/capabilities by a third party?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by p_saggu »

From the Physics today article:
The Chinese nuclear diagnostics were every bit as good as those used in American nuclear tests—if not better. For example, the NINT scientists showed Stillman several Chinese-built 5-megahertz oscilloscopes; their fastest scopes could record 1.5-gigahertz signals, well above the contemporary western capability.

NINT scientists had also developed and fielded a dual-axis PINEX (pinhole neutron experiment) "camera" to provide dual images in the deuterium–tritium burn region of a boosted primary—the fission portion of a thermonuclear device—during implosion, at exactly the desired moment. The unique dual-axis capability allowed the Chinese researchers to image either two time-sequenced events in a specific region of burn inside the nuclear device or to record events at two separate locations in the device at any given moment.
One such test, the CHIC-12 event, surrounded the nuclear explosive with a variety of targets placed at a distance: submarine-pen doors, underground military command bunkers, military aircraft, tanks, and even animals caged in place with instruments attached. Stillman noted with interest that Chinese procedures were identical to those followed in the US.
Later developments
...
* In 1982 China's premier Deng Xiaoping began the transfer of nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan and, in time, to other third world countries. Those transfers included blueprints for the ultrasimple CHIC-4 design using highly enriched uranium, first tested by China in 1966.
* A Pakistani derivative of CHIC-4 apparently was tested in China on 26 May 1990.
* After four failed experiments, Chinese researchers fired a successful enhanced radiation weapon, a neutron bomb, on 19 December 1984.
* The Chinese bid farewell to atmospheric nuclear testing on 16 October 1980 with a 700-kiloton airburst. It was the last such atmospheric test by any nuclear power. They continued to test underground until 29 July 1996.
* During the 1990s China conducted underground hydronuclear experiments—though not full-scale device tests—for France at Lop Nur.

Over a period of 15 years, an intellectually talented China achieved parity with the West and preeminence over its Asian peers in the design of nuclear weapons and in understanding underground nuclear testing. China now stands in the first rank of nuclear powers.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by p_saggu »

Physics/Global Studies 180 - Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear War, and Arms Control, Final Examination
6.!!Nuclear Forces of Other Known Nuclear Weapon States
(a) India [7 points]
• About how many nuclear weapons does India have today?
• List the types of the operational nuclear delivery systems India has (don't name them).
• What is the approximate range of the longest-range nuclear-capable ballistic missile India has?
• Is it capable of reaching Pakistan?
Duh!!! :-?
Gerard
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Gerard »

Don't accept any compromise with min nuke deterrence: Ex-gen
a former senior army officer has said India should not accept any condition which compromises on the issue of minimum nuclear deterrence.
"As a global power, we must possess a nuclear weapons capability that is sufficient to act as a deterrent to all other nuclear weapon states. "What does it translate into? Very simply stated we should be able to absorb a first strike and yet retain the capability to strike back with our residual capability in a manner that makes the costs to the attacker unacceptable," Lt Gen Vinay Shankar said. He said this was the minimum capability India must seek, and it should "not accept the imposition of terms that could cause us to accept compromises on this issue."
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Gerard »

p_saggu
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by p_saggu »

"As a global power, we must possess a nuclear weapons capability that is sufficient to act as a deterrent to all other nuclear weapon states. "What does it translate into? Very simply stated we should be able to absorb a first strike and yet retain the capability to strike back with our residual capability in a manner that makes the costs to the attacker unacceptable," Lt Gen Vinay Shankar said. He said this was the minimum capability India must seek, and it should "not accept the imposition of terms that could cause us to accept compromises on this issue."
But we already have, all these years by not having tested and verified and improved and re-tested our deterrence to be sure beyond a reasonable doubt that should we save the required numbers for the second strike, the weapons will deliver as required.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by NRao »

Rangudu
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Rangudu »

Viennese Waltzes

The nuclear deal hinges on how the US handles the NSG exemption for India

SEEMA SIROHI
Senior Indian officials had just finished a crucial closed-door briefing on the Indo-US nuclear deal for the 45 countries of the Nuclear Suppliers Group in Vienna. After the 25-minute high-voltage pitch, they expected some questions, a few clarifications. What followed on that fateful August 21 was total silence. It was a dark portent—the opponents already had a group strategy to block the deal with a flood of amendments. And there began another two weeks of agonising, nail-biting suspense in the long and always difficult march to the finishing line.

Indian officials were rattled, even angry at the situation in Vienna—the mayhem of 50 amendments with no room to manoeuvre. After a horribly bruising battle at home, in which PM Manmohan Singh fought for survival, they had banked on Washington to deliver its part of the bargain—an unconditional waiver from NSG rules. But things fell apart, the centre did not hold.

The next NSG meeting on September 4-5 will reveal if the US can regain control of the process and corral support for the deal, which has soaked gallons of diplomatic and political blood. India is prepared to walk away if unwarranted conditions are tagged on to the draft. Thanks, but no thanks, is the message to Washington. And US Ambassador David Mulford understands it.

India and the US are working on a new draft to find common ground while mounting another offensive to convince the naysayers. Officials speak of three possible scenarios—the NSG exemption brings in provisions of the politically explosive US Hyde Act from the back door (an awful outcome from India's point of view), the NSG exemption is less stringent than the Hyde Act (good for India but the US Congress may balk) or the NSG postpones a decision (bad for both India and the US).

The three contentious issues are—India's right to conduct a nuclear test, a demand by some countries for periodic review of Indian compliance of its non-proliferation commitments and denial of enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) technology. Objectors want the NSG to automatically end nuclear cooperation if New Delhi tests again, going beyond the existing NSG guidelines, which call for "consulting promptly" to "assess the reality" in case of explosion of a nuclear device. As for ENR technology, the NSG itself is tied up in knots over whether to bar or approve sales. Canada wants to sell but only to countries which signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the source of all troubles for India, which has refused to sign it. India will not accept any mention of "future compliance" to the NPT either. If Canada wins on the ENR issue, it would end up tying Russia and France too.

What is happening is an attempt to load the NSG exemption for India with conditions in the Hyde Act, thanks to the "non-proliferation underground" in the US bureaucracy and Congress. New Delhi had expected a degree of difficulty in the NSG but not the barrage of disfavour it had to face. Canada alone produced 25 amendments, showing once again that Ottawa never fails to disappoint. Austria, New Zealand, Ireland, Norway, Switzerland and the Netherlands pooled their muscle and made a joint opening statement at the plenary, calling themselves "particularly strong supporters" of non-proliferation.

The "monumental hypocrisy" of certain European countries, which sold dual use technology to Pakistan's A.Q. Khan network, is breathtaking, officials say. The latest example was an admission by the Swiss government that it destroyed computer files connected to Khan's nuclear mart to protect CIA operatives, said the New York Times. Washington bore down heavily on Switzerland to protect the CIA's means and methods; the Swiss complied. The same Swiss are in the front row at the NSG to deny a clean waiver for India, and the US can't seem to find its voice.

Delhi is seething at the proportions of the Vienna ambush. "The US always knew who the recalcitrant countries were. So did they completely go to sleep? We realised the problems early enough and leveraged our bilateral strength with various countries," an Indian official said. "Despite the domestic political uncertainties, we continued the rounds of NSG capitals." It was a new phase of Indian diplomacy—aggressive and edgy, filled with a "with-us-or-against-us" flavour. The nuclear deal was a litmus test of friendship.

US officials reject the notion of "sleeping on the job" or sabotage, saying that letters from President George Bush and demarches have flowed steadily from Washington to NSG countries. Condoleezza Rice went to New Zealand in July partly to lobby for the deal, the first secretary of state to visit the country in nine years. But it is also possible that Washington's attention wandered over the past 11 months while the deal was stuck in New Delhi's political quagmire. At one point, US officials openly talked of "moving on" to other issues because they didn't think the deal would get past the Left hurdle. Ambassador Mulford had even called a special briefing to focus attention on other facets of Indo-US relations.

But the trouble has rarely been at the top levels of the Bush administration. As in the past, it is the busybodies at the mid-level who don't feel like following orders. It happened when a two-page enabling legislation morphed into a 28-page monster called the Hyde Act, creating a huge ball of fire in New Delhi because of its long list of expectations and prescriptions. This time around, senior administration officials seemed distracted by other world crises, leaving the field open to manipulation and mismanagement by others.

Sources say originally the US, UK, Russia and France had planned to jointly push India's case at the NSG meeting, but the Georgia crisis crashed through that idea. William Burns, the third ranking official at the State Department, was diverted from cracking the NSG for India to cooling the Russia-Georgia crisis. This left the leadership to lower-level officials, who felt the NSG could be well used to extract more conditions from India.

"I don't think the Americans tried very hard and the reasons are many. Perhaps they wanted to show the US Congress they are doing their best to carry out the Hyde Act. Perhaps they lost heart because it took us a year to get sorted and the amount of criticism they came under," says former ambassador Arundhati Ghose. As for Russia, sources say Moscow, smarting from the PM's decision not to ink the deal for four extra reactors because of US pressure, was supine on the NSG front. Russia got active only after the PM rang Moscow asking for help.

Last week Washington tried to make amends. The US Embassy was abuzz, with Mulford calling on ambassadors of recalcitrant countries. Visiting assistant secretary of state for South Asia, Richard Boucher, worked the phones, consulting furiously. He met national security advisor M.K. Narayanan and special envoy Shyam Saran to gauge if India's red lines could be a shade lighter. But he got an earful. The US should not assume that the PM would sign on to something unacceptable because he has invested high political capital on the nuclear deal. As Ghose said, "India is not desperate and we should walk away. We have done it all our life." Except this time the fallout would be radioactive for Indo-US relations.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by ramana »

The next test would be the fullup weapon and that would shatter the NPT and its structure. India by testing the lower yield version and declaring the moratorium, was telling the world powers that it was a status quo power not out to rock the boat. If that message is misread, then it can be restated with the new test. Its not as if India does not have ready test articles. Check with Mark Hibbs. And this time it will rock the boat and and even sink it.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

US revision on India nuclear trade deficient by Mark Heinrich: Reuters
A revised U.S. proposal for lifting a global ban on nuclear trade with India does not go far enough to defuse fears the move could shred non-proliferation standards, diplomats said on Sunday.
diplomats said the new waiver text bore only cosmetic changes in the face of Indian insistence on a "clean" exemption and this made it unlikely a follow-up NSG conclave set for Thursday and Friday could agree a solution.
"Agreement looks unlikely this week. The red lines of India and concerned NSG members remain too far apart. India will have to give more," said one diplomat, who like others asked for anonymity as the nuclear bloc's deliberations are confidential.
Diplomats said "like-minded" NSG states remained set on conditions including a trade halt if India tests a bomb again, transfers of fuel-enrichment or reprocessing technology that could be replicated for bomb making, and periodic waiver reviews.
And NSG exploded into a thousand pieces.... :D

Lots and lots of egg on the faces of USA, France and Britannia Magnus. Have the big Western Powers become Hijras?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

Grand NP Ayatollah has pronounced his fatwa. The faithful are to gather at the NSG Masjid on Jumma and say NO.

Revised draft exemption likely to be rejected: ACA: PTI
The revised draft exemption for India to be presented before the Nuclear Suppliers Group has not been modulated as per the group's demands and is likely to be rejected, a top arms control specialist said on Sunday.

Daryl Kimbal, the executive director of the Arms Control Association (ACA), has maintained that the report of New Delhi's expectation that the 45-nation group ought to be satisfied with a "statement from the Chair" as a substitute for a rational NSG policy should be rejected.

The ACA has consistently been against the Indo-US nuclear deal on non-proliferation grounds.

"Earlier today, the revised US-Indian draft waiver was transmitted to NSG states... it makes no substantive concessions or changes and is essentially the same as the earlier draft proposal," Kimbal said in a statement.

The NSG is to take up the issue of waiver for India at its next meeting in Vienna on September 4-5.

"Contrary to the Orwellian claims of its proponents, the deal would not bring India into the nonproliferation mainstream. Unlike 179 other countries, India has not signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. It continues to produce fissile material and expand its nuclear arsenal," he said.
Has the Countdown to Pokhran III begun yet? :twisted:
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by harbans »

India by testing the lower yield version and declaring the moratorium, was telling the world powers that it was a status quo power not out to rock the boat..

Brillianty put Raman Ji, but just wondering if we test what sort of pressure/ sanctions this time the West could put? Stop outsourcing? Stopping total trade is basically a declaration of war..whereas testing a weaon is not exactly that. I think there is a body of massive opinion (even the ones who would not normally have liked testing will swing to pro-test) that will develop in India in case the NSG acts stubborn. That will go totally counter to NPAs so called goals. There is a possibility that Russia and India's future is linked closer than we assume..thanks to the Abrahmic institutional distaste for Dharma..Ironically the NPAs are destroying their own non-proliferation agenda. Stupid.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sanjaykumar »

Megaton tests are political (hear that Stillwell?), India need not follow the others and moronically explode bigger bombs when smaller ones will kill just as dead.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by svinayak »

harbans wrote: Ironically the NPAs are destroying their own non-proliferation agenda.

Group knows when time is up and the NPA agenda is no longer feasible.
Iran and ME are going to break the NP world.

So the agenda is to keep the biggest block India as long as possible in the dog house while trying to control the damage in other regions. Doble stds are being applied as long as possible as long as they can.

They know that in the future there is going to smaller nations with few weapons and it could be a wild situation. But if they can continue to give this resemblance of control and world wide restrain they have fooled the world as long as possible at the expense of Indians.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by vsudhir »

If the deal fails at this stage, then a week or so later, expect PMO to send a communique to MoD leaked to the press and reiterated in parliament by some Mantri of state that the unilateral moratorium has been suspended for 'small-scale' N-tests. How small will be decided by the DAE in conjunction with DRDO and the service chiefs....
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Arun_S »

vsudhir,
How come I was thinking of the same last couple of days. The fact of the matter is that Amri Khan eyes are in sky are intensely watching all Indian space for the tell tale sign of Indian desperation with US-India New clear dhandha. But India should not be even hiding that from prying eyes, flaunt it openly.

The 6th shaft that housed the second TN during Pok-II but never used I hope is not affted by the last test and still ready for business. But I sense there are more than one shafts al-leady ready.

And this is not withstanding "overriding economic well being" concern arguments heard on this thread. Just shows mirror to the argument on the relative weightage (importance) of bread and deterrence.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by harbans »

Acharya, it will be a disaster if Iran and ME get nukes like Pakistan. I am dead against Islamic nations possessing Nukes. The NPA agenda has little moral sanction in that it discriminates between haves and have nots to the extent that hardly any pressure is exterted on the haves simly because it is the haves that have created the present 'NP regime'. To top that hypocrisy, they keep an elephant like India out and in the dog house with Iran, Libya, Pakistan and North Korea. I think India should stop whining bleats like 'we don't mind Pakistan having nukes' and openly state that they are against Iran, Pakistan, Libya and NK arming.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by harbans »

expect PMO to send a communique to MoD leaked to the press and reiterated in parliament

Sudhir Ji, all one has to do is increase some traffic at the Pokhran site, send in trucks etc, in broad daylight. They'll get the message.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Raj Malhotra »

I think that we should convey to gang of six and the world community at large that the series of nuclear tests will take place if a satisfactory exemption does not come through
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Arun_S »

p_saggu wrote:
"As a global power, we must possess a nuclear weapons capability that is sufficient to act as a deterrent to all other nuclear weapon states. "What does it translate into? Very simply stated we should be able to absorb a first strike and yet retain the capability to strike back with our residual capability in a manner that makes the costs to the attacker unacceptable," Lt Gen Vinay Shankar said. He said this was the minimum capability India must seek, and it should "not accept the imposition of terms that could cause us to accept compromises on this issue."
But we already have, all these years by not having tested and verified and improved and re-tested our deterrence to be sure beyond a reasonable doubt that should we save the required numbers for the second strike, the weapons will deliver as required.
Eons ago some forumites were happy and dandy about unqualified success of Pok-II and absolute trust in Indian test design validated scale up to 200kt weapon, and all the people who need to know, knew India has it all. That begs the question why India is so insistent on the right to test and ex-Generals talking of the need to preserve the option for test??

Deserves introspection.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Rangudu »

We need the right to test because China and Unkil have the same. NPT was where we missed the boat. Today, China can keep its NSG membership and trade without giving up its right to test. We need to keep the same so that we can react to any new tests by China. This will be true even if India had tested a multi mega ton device in 1998 with no doubts of yield.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by awagaman »

http://svaradarajan.blogspot.com/2008/0 ... -reax.html

From SV's blogspot:

31 August 2008

NSG draft ver 2.0: Reax

Reuter's man in Vienna, Mark Heinrich, is a formidable reporter with great contacts so when he writes something, it is worth taking seriously. His dispatch today has initial reactions from unnamed "diplomats" to the revised draft proposal circulated over the weekend seeking an exemption for India from the Nuclear Suppliers Group's export rules:

[D]iplomats said the new waiver text bore only cosmetic changes in the face of Indian insistence on a "clean" exemption and this made it unlikely a follow-up NSG conclave set for Thursday and Friday could agree a solution...

"Agreement looks unlikely this week. The red lines of India and concerned NSG members remain too far apart. India will have to give more," said one diplomat, who like others asked for anonymity as the nuclear bloc's deliberations are confidential.

PTI also quotes the Arms Control Association's Daryll Kimball, making a similar prediction, though his claim about the new draft making "no substantive concessions" rings hollow since it is obvious he hasn't set eyes on the text yet. Kimball and Sharon Squassoni from the CEIP are holding a press conference to denounce the move on September 2. Let's hope they get the draft by then...
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Katare »

Arun_s,

Possibly due to following reasons....

Just to ensure that when others resume testing we also have option to test.

And

If new overt geopolitical threats appear which require more robust nuclear deterence (mad etc) we have legal option to test.

And

Why take any option off the table even though we don't see any need for it as of now
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by harbans »

LOL, but the NPAs are giving India in the next few months 2 things which they so vehemently want to deny India..an ICBM and confirmed tested TN weapons. If MMS and Sonia balk at this, BJP knows it's winning plank in the elections to come. Nothing can stop that happening. Gut feeling is MMS/ SG will balk at tests but do the ICBM test, hopefully just 16 Nm adjacent of Invercargill, South Island. :)
sanjaykumar
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sanjaykumar »

Agreement looks unlikely this week. The red lines of India and concerned NSG members remain too far apart. India will have to give more," said one diplomat, who like others asked for anonymity as the nuclear bloc's deliberations are confidential


Of course like any good negotiator, India has likely kept some token goodies in reserve.

I am curious as to the 25 ammendments sponsored by Canada.
nkumar
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by nkumar »

My reading is that, deal or no deal, there will be neither be a N-test nor an ICBM test before the general elections. Only the scheduled tests will take place, if at any. I will be happy to be proven wrong on this.
awagaman
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by awagaman »

sanjaykumar wrote:I am curious as to the 25 ammendments sponsored by Canada.
I think that news is bullshit. There are barely 25 sentences in the original waiver. Obviously the Canadians would not have proposed more than one amendment for each sentence!
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Neshant »

The NPT signatories like china & usa through selective proliferation have transferred nukes & missiles all along. The current drama is just a farce. The reality is that they do as they wish with or without any treaty.

why doesn't India bring this up at the NPT.
Neshant
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Neshant »

> That begs the question why India is so insistent on the right to test

because :

1) the fusion test probably failed

2) no country can deploy a credible triad based on 1 fusion test

3) there has been and will be continuous flow of under the table nukes & missiles from US/China to pakistan and others regardless of any NPT.

4) possible need for a test down the road for scientific (non-military) uses

5) because china, russia, uk, france, US have reserved the right to test for themselves.
enqyoob
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by enqyoob »

This discussion is more asinine than the Caste Deciding Strategic Thinking "Polls". I guess it is too much to expect the Energizer Bunnies to understand that they are doing EXACTLY what the racist NPAs hope Indians will do: jump up and down screaming:
WE WANT TO TEST NUKES! WE WANT TO TEST NUKES! NOW! MOMMEE!! NOW!

This is precisely why the NPAs have been able to persuade many nations that India's Moratorium should not be taken seriously. You guys are living (if one can call this thread a sign of life, despite the absolute lack of any intelligence, I guess stimulus-response is sign of life..) proof of what the NPAs bleat. Congratulations!

Thank Houristan that we have Pakistan to look like worse idiots than we make ourselves look, though I have to wonder about that too. Even a dumbass madarssa-lobotomized suicide-vest-carrier can't be THIS stupid.

I guess I'll go read the writings by Major Dumbatze and General Jack Artze on the happenings in Pakigeorgia.


ramanaji: PLEASE reconsider the wisdom of encouraging this anti-Indian destructive behavior, as you are clearly doing. Thanks!
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by svinayak »

harbans wrote:Acharya, it will be a disaster if Iran and ME get nukes like Pakistan. I am dead against Islamic nations possessing Nukes. The NPA agenda has little moral sanction in that it discriminates between haves and have nots to the extent that hardly any pressure is exterted on the haves simly because it is the haves that have created the present 'NP regime'. To top that hypocrisy, they keep an elephant like India out and in the dog house with Iran, Libya, Pakistan and North Korea. I think India should stop whining bleats like 'we don't mind Pakistan having nukes' and openly state that they are against Iran, Pakistan, Libya and NK arming.

This is the reality.
The deputy sec of state Armitage admitted in Charlie Rose program that US and world has to finally accept a nuclear Iran
enqyoob
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by enqyoob »

Arunji:

The reason why American warheads of the 1980s were [http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/427/reli ... ad-program]relatively sharp-nosed is given very clearly here.
They were designed as earth-penetrators and hence used a lot of tungsten etc. in the nose. [/url]

Since circa 2005 there is program to replace those warheads with "long-term storage" thingiesand use other smaller things for the ground-penetrator missions.

Even on the "sharp" ones, the nose is a hemisphere-cone and not sharp at all. Clearly there is a blunt-body shock in front, but they use materials that can withstand much higher temperatures, so there is no need to have a much larger nose area (drag is extremely sensitive to this). No evidence of anything ablative here. Ignore the cartoons of sharp-pointed missiles - just see where the nose is actually exposed.

Ground-penetrator Patents describe things that have flattened knife-like noses.

My take is that on weapons that are designed to explode at pretty high altitudes, you can save a lot of missile length by rounding off the nose at a lower level and this increasing the volume per unit length. However, if the warhead has to reach down to ground level before going "boom" then you use a much smaller nosetip with high-temperature materials.

It's possible that with carbon composite noses you can do things that could not be done with metal noses.

I have no problem with claiming that the US is wising up to the beauty of the Agni design, which probably reflects a lot of recent experiments with composite and other re-entry noses.


W80 cruise missile warhead is also very blunt, though it is not a re-entry vehicle, just posting for comparison.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by NRao »

Has the Countdown to Pokhran III begun yet?
That is a restriction by itself I would say. The best way out of that predicament is for the US to give India non-blast techs to solve the M/Kt problem. Prove karne me kya harz hai? Bat tho bahut choti hai.
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