India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Locked
putnanja
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4665
Joined: 26 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: searching for the next al-qaida #3

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by putnanja »

If the NSG approval goes through to India's satisfaction, but the deal is not approved in US congress due to paucity of time, can India deal with other countries like France and Russia immediately?
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by ramana »

Too early to talk about that.
Ackerman wants the Democrats to get the glory of opening up India. Rice hasnt stopped cooking yet.
putnanja
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4665
Joined: 26 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: searching for the next al-qaida #3

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by putnanja »

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by ramana »

Forget "Who Lost India" they are now worrying about "Who Lost Russia" in two decades.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by ramana »

Dr. M.R. Srinivasan weighs in

‘US may be pushing NSG members for draft waiver change’
‘US may be pushing NSG members for draft waiver change’

Mumbai, Aug 26: Nuclear experts fear the US could be arm twisting India through backdoor by prodding smaller nations in the Nuclear Suppliers Group to bring amendments in the draft on providing waiver to India for nuclear commerce.

"It is quite likely the US could be arm twisting India through backdoor as if it gets a clean waiver, New Delhi might be having nuclear trade with 44 countries other than US in the NSG, especially France and Russia," Atomic Energy Commission member M R Srinivasan said.

"There is a possibility that Washington was putting pressure for conditionalities through some NSG members in an attempt to have the leverage over India in the purchase of reactor technology from the US," said some other experts who did not wish to be identified.


India has been seeking a clean and unconditional waiver from NSG which controls the global nuclear trade. Last week's NSG meet on the key issue failed to work out a consensus on the issue after Austria, New Zealand, Switzerland and Ireland opposed unconditional waiver for India. The NSG is meeting next week again to deliberate on the issue.

India may have to wait for global civilian nuclear cooperation till the 45-member cartel take a "realistic" position on India-specific waiver, the experts said.

"India may have to wait till such time when the Nuclear Suppliers Group takes a realistic position and works on ground realities instead of coming under pressure of certain powers," Srinivasan said.

Srinivasan said "in fact, NSG should be asking the P-5 countries (nuclear weapon states) and others on their non- proliferation record and details of their disarmament programme."

He was replying to a question whether India will walk out of the nuclear deal with the US if NSG does not reach a consensus on giving the waiver during the group's next meet.

NSG should be more concerned with the growing number of weapons in those countries who have either signed NPT or CTBT, he said.

Experts said that at no point India should allow the US to misuse its negotiating position with NSG. "The terms have to be fair and clean."

India must get a level-playing field while shopping for nuclear technology, they noted. "Otherwise, there was no point in investing time and resources if we are made to toe the US line as in the case of Tarapur (where America reneged on its commitment to provide reactor fuel)."

US nuclear technology is not at par with others and the nuclear agreement would allow India to explore markets of other advanced technologies, the experts said.

Even as the draft waiver is being re-visited, India clearly reserves the right to walk out if extraneous conditions are imposed. If so, the failure would not be on the part of India, Srinivasan asserted.

Bureau Report
Quite clear statement. There are two gropus of people here. Those who are named and are not afraid to be named. The anonymous experts are those in govt and cant talk for fear Official Secrets Act. And we have seen a vindictive PMO shows the Emergency is not to be forgotten- M.J. Akbar etc.

I am more worried about AK's health with all this travel and having to take the pressure instead of elected representatives who collect bank accounts and let him face the heat.
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Gerard »

Let deal fail, but India won’t trade off national interest
highly-placed sources in the government involved in the nuclear deal have categorically ruled out accepting major changes in the new document.
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Gerard »

New Zealand wants more nuke controls on India
New Zealand will continue to press for nonproliferation of nuclear weapons when it resumes talks on an deal to allow India access to supplies of nuclear materials and technology, a senior government minister said Tuesday.
svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14223
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by svinayak »

Gerard wrote:New Zealand wants more nuke controls on India
New Zealand will continue to press for nonproliferation of nuclear weapons when it resumes talks on an deal to allow India access to supplies of nuclear materials and technology, a senior government minister said Tuesday.
They have not taken care of other countries within NPT and now they want to target India
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19226
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by NRao »

India and U.S. begin reworking draft nuclear deal
By Krittivas Mukherjee

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - The United States and India began reworking a draft agreement to win approval from a global nuclear trade bloc that has been skeptical of the two nations' proposed civilian nuclear deal, officials said on Monday.

A 45-nation meeting on whether to lift a ban on nuclear trade with India ended inconclusively last week after many members wanted to attach conditions, like trying to ban further nuclear tests by the Asian power.

The deal would allow India access to nuclear technology and fuel, overturning a three-decade ban on trade after India tested nuclear weapons in 1974.

The countries in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) will meet again on September 4-5, when the United States is expected to rework the draft for a waiver breaking the nuclear trade embargo.

"The ball has been set rolling," an Indian foreign ministry official said when asked if the two countries had begun reworking the draft. "Our foreign secretary is in the U.S. and the two delegations have been meeting."

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher met Indian officials on Monday but refused to answer questions on what changes were likely in the U.S. draft.

He hinted last week that the two sides were open to accommodating some changes in the draft so long as they did not impede the bilateral pact.

Washington says it was committed to getting the draft past the NSG as soon as possible.

"The United States and India will continue our vigorous joint advocacy for the initiative at the highest levels of NSG government," David C. Mulford, U.S. Ambassador to India, said.

Diplomats say conditions tabled at the NSG included intrusive U.N. inspections of Indian civilian nuclear sites; cancellation of any waiver if India tests bombs again; and periodic reviews of Indian compliance with the exemption.

India says it will not agree to any conditions to get an NSG approval.

Sensitive to leftist charges that closer ties with the United States will undo its strategic autonomy, New Delhi has insisted on a "clean and unconditional" waiver from the NSG.

"We will continue to work with our Indian partners to persuade the Nuclear Suppliers Group countries that such an exemption is in the international community's best interest," Mulford said.

The bilateral deal has disturbed pro-disarmament nations and campaigners since India is outside the global Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and developed nuclear bombs in the 1970s with Western technology imported ostensibly for peaceful ends.

Time is running out on the bilateral deal which still has to reach the U.S. Congress for ratification by early September at the latest before the house breaks for the November U.S. presidential election.

(Editing by Alistair Scrutton and Paul Tait)
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19226
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by NRao »

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by ramana »

Howla ya ulloo ban raha hain in hyderabadi lingo.....
A reality check is needed here. What happened in the NSG is a plain old sucker punch. For to those not familiar with the term its American street slang for being sandbagged or caught completely off guard. To recap the sequence was that J18 would be followed by M3 when the Indian separation plan comes is made public. Then a India-US 123 agreement would be negotiated. That agreement wont be ratified by US Congress till India gets the IAEA Safeguards agreement negotiated and then the obtain the NSG waiver. After that the Indo-US trade can take place.

After crossing all hurdles the NSG waiver is hung up due to objections from some of the members whose contribution to the NSG is negligible or dubious at best. The US has not done its part in obtaining the waiver on terms that are acceptable to India. When small things cast big shadows its time for sunset or manipulated lighting effects. It means either the US is surprised or they are allowing this to happen.

So why has this happened and what are the consequences?

The Russian move on Georgia is a significant move during this period. Maybe the US does not want the waiver to come through for it could mean providing an opening for other powers to get the Indian market. Yes they also wont get it but they don’t hwave stuff to sell except as system integrators.

Then the paralysis is J&K can be seen. Curiously when TSP is facing a major civil war and a leadership crisis and are out of reckoning in Kashmir affairs except to provide ceasefire violations (31 to date), the APHC which is a US stooge makes a big play for another Partition of India and the Govt is paralyzed into inaction due to the outcome of the NSG Waiver. So what is going on? The delay increases the paralysis and provides facts on the ground for the Partition movement.

The US and the intl. community wants India to give more. Essentially give up nuclear weapons. That’s what all those four letter adherence means.
The main objections from the Commonwealth countries are quite hurtful especially as that body survives because of Indian membership.
The European Nordic countries are seeing the deal in race terms.

There is some thing clearly wrong in this picture.
-----------
Why is Mulford saying what India will do? Mar gaye khya?
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

Ramana,

the saving grace in this whole affair is, that the Left Front and BJP have cornered MMS into a very tight spot. On the other hand he has bet his whole legacy on this deal. He knows that if he gives a bit too much, he can ruin his legacy and the next election. Despite all what pundits say, the next election is going to also be about the nuclear deal, not the technical part, but its political significance.

He simply can't give the Americans or the G-6 anything much. There is too much spotlight on the deal and too many analysts and too many skeptics and too many politicians with knives. Anil Kakodkar has taken a position, Pranab Mukherjee has taken a position. I can't imagine MMS accepting anything thrown his way. He would have to say NO.

The burden of effort is on the Americans. Either they can deliver or they can't. If they don't there is going to be a lot of acrimony.

Other than that, I am not sure, if there are still any gullible govts out there for the Kashmir cause, who'd mind if every day a few die. The Govt. has changed its tack on Kashmir already.
fanne
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4282
Joined: 11 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by fanne »

It seams MMS has not sold us enough, he needs to sell more...Maybe Sonia afterall will become the greatest Italian that ever lived, got a nation of 1 billion subjugated!!
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

fanne wrote:It seams MMS has not sold us enough, he needs to sell more...Maybe Sonia afterall will become the greatest Italian that ever lived, got a nation of 1 billion subjugated!!
:eek:
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by ramana »

Its not about MMS. Sometime back enqyoob asked if it was time to close ranks. I said at that time it wasnt yet. After the Vote of confidence despite what ever it took, MMS has the legitimacy of the govt and he needs to be supported fully. AK said clearly no conditionalaties and when I said hurray folks thought I was being tongue in cheek. My point is the NSG waiver being a multi-lateral agreement has a different connotation then the Hyde act which is local. So AK has to be supported.
What made me fly off was TPS suggesting more changes which shows whose side is he batting. If any one recalls the current draft was a joint draft that was worked by both US and India. There were reports of Indian officials being in US to finalize the draft waiver.
So what was rejected was also GOI offer. And the TPS and his ilk suggest more can be done? Whose side are they batting for? I agree he was representing Indian interests when he was employed but after retirement who knows?
svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14223
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by svinayak »

ramana wrote: There is some thing clearly wrong in this picture.
This is an agreement to let India inside subject to to some give by India. K, NPA, testing etc.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

India, US work on revised text for NSG waiver by Indrani Bagchi: TOI
There are three main conditions that have become the "core" — a "testing" clause, bar on transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technology and a periodic review of India's compliance.
The easiest to resolve will be the "review" demand — India opposes something that is intrusive or discriminatory, so the way out appears to be something like this. India would engage in a kind of "chair dialogue" or a periodic consultation with the NSG that would not be intrusive. Instead, it would be a mechanism that could enhance India's relations with the global nuclear body.
On the issue of "testing", or whether NSG will cease cooperation if India tests another nuclear weapon, the proposal gaining currency is a replication of the 123 agreement — that in such an event there would be a set of "consultations" between the NSG members where the decision on future course of action would be taken in NSG tradition, by consensus.
The problem compromise is on transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technology (ENR) to India. India is adamant that this should not be barred to India. But many countries are insisting on barring this to India.
The compromise that has been offered to India is that the NSG would defer decision on India's demand until it decides on its own guidelines. India would reject this outright, say sources, because accepting any bar on ENR would mean the choking off of India's nuclear industry — it means India would import reactors but cannot enrich fuel to feed it or reprocess to clean up.
Comes down to ENR!

The testing clause is again being multilateralized in principle, with the only saving grace that it is difficult to get a consensus. However should NSG some day change its rules of voting, it would become risky. Even if and only if this has to give, it must be explicitly mentioned, that it must be done by consensus (and hopefully India is a NSG member soon to obstruct such a consensus).

Perhaps India should make such flexibility dependent on similar flexibility by NSG to accept India as a member.
Rangudu
BRFite
Posts: 1751
Joined: 03 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Rangudu »

The nuclear deal called. It said that reports of its death are somewhat exaggerated. :)

Let's wait to hear the next draft and where it stacks up wrt the redlines. What's the hurry to write it off and go back into the "MMS sold out" discussionn
jash_p
BRFite
Posts: 376
Joined: 03 Feb 2008 05:56

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by jash_p »

What made me fly off was TPS suggesting more changes which shows whose side is he batting.

Who is TPS ?
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by ramana »

I dont like the multilateralization of the testting issue. Consult with whom? They are all serial proliferators and have contributed to reducing Indian security. Having done that they are now sitting on judgement on India's eligibility?

They should not have agreed to this new language. Sending Menon to DC was wrong. No wonder we dont hear anyting from Indian side but only platitudes from US officials. Is there a gag order?

R, Do you have a copy of the new language?
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

A multilateralized no-nuclear testing clause would put India into a similar position as we were all these years with respect to Kashmir in the UNSC. We became dependent on Russian Veto. Similarly without NSG Membership, we would again become dependent on Russian Veto. We will again be pleading with other countries. This clause may be included only if any consequent action is to be taken by consensus and India is a NSG Member. The clause should be avoided as much as possible.
Last edited by RajeshA on 27 Aug 2008 04:19, edited 1 time in total.
samuel
BRFite
Posts: 818
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 08:52

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by samuel »

ramana wrote:There is some thing clearly wrong in this picture.
The US has been consistent in telling us that the 123 agreement must meet its non-proliferation objectives. The NSG exists to seal India up and this waiver is probably the most significant thing it is going to do in that regard. This IS what they were waiting for, no? And, we are surprised at these turn of events? What was surprising was MMS declaring: Uncle Sam wants to help us.

The US will keep pushing by not cracking a whip and continue to minimize the differential with Hyde, coming as close as it can to its "non-proliferation objectives." Then, when it knows its sucked the max out of us, it will chat with its NSG friends if it is good enough. The other nations are doing what the US brought them in to do and are, in fact, championing its cause. That they may appear to be speaking their own minds is of no consequence. Their programming was complete a long time ago.

I wouldn't put any of what is going on beyond a thought out effort by the US bureaucracy (Condi Rice and her team are putting a lot of energy in, where?). Where the US is unsure is whether it has locked in MMS for good, I think, and that is our only chance to get out of this mess. Where it may miscalculate is to think that we may no longer have the will to walk-out. Bar that possibility, they'll push as far as they can and simply push the pause button if it is too late this season, coming back for more in the next. What's sure is that they've got their hands in our nuclear balls now, enjoy the feeling. Nonetheless, a pause may be our best hope yet to close ranks.

S
Last edited by samuel on 27 Aug 2008 04:23, edited 1 time in total.
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Arun_S »

ramana wrote:So what was rejected was also GOI offer. And the TPS and his ilk suggest more can be done? Whose side are they batting for? I agree he was representing Indian interests when he was employed but after retirement who knows?
Unfortunately I do not subscribe to the notion. Human personalty and loyalty does not change from what he is when is in Government employment and when he is retired. Loyalty is the nature of self, it is not a T shirt that can be bought in supermarket.

A hyena's heart and intent does not change because he wears sheep skin. That is the reason why people who represent GoI while negotiating w/foreigners must be thoroughly re-screened for loyalty.

IMHO after retirement some of these experts and opinion makers are overtly operating in true-self, while in Govt service were operating covert.
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Arun_S »

Reposting:
Arun_S wrote:
narayanan wrote:

Thank you, Arun_S, for that advice (or maybe it's an order, depending on whether it's coming from ADmin Arun or postor Arun..)
narayanan: What prompted you to write the text highlighted above? And what do you mean by that?
Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21233
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Prem »

Rangudu wrote:The nuclear deal called. It said that reports of its death are somewhat exaggerated. :)

Let's wait to hear the next draft and where it stacks up wrt the redlines. What's the hurry to write it off and go back into the "MMS sold out" discussionn
If the negotiations are done in good faith then deal will go through without any major amendement , If Uncle is using his chamchas to squeze extra concessions out of India then its about time to prepare for burial and hire professional wailers , chest beaters along with Brass band singing Ram Nam Sat Hai .

The Day After Sep5 will be very interesting.
My guess is NSG members will see the writing on the wall and fall in line. In past India could not afford to give 100 Billion $ worth of orders to MNC and now we are discussing $ amount close to Trillion over next few decades. French and Russians wont be able to resist for long and non sayers will be left holding empty bag.
sraj
BRFite
Posts: 260
Joined: 12 Feb 2006 07:04

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sraj »

RajeshA wrote:India, US work on revised text for NSG waiver by Indrani Bagchi: TOI
There are three main conditions that have become the "core" — a "testing" clause, bar on transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technology and a periodic review of India's compliance.
The easiest to resolve will be the "review" demand — India opposes something that is intrusive or discriminatory, so the way out appears to be something like this. India would engage in a kind of "chair dialogue" or a periodic consultation with the NSG that would not be intrusive. Instead, it would be a mechanism that could enhance India's relations with the global nuclear body.
On the issue of "testing", or whether NSG will cease cooperation if India tests another nuclear weapon, the proposal gaining currency is a replication of the 123 agreement — that in such an event there would be a set of "consultations" between the NSG members where the decision on future course of action would be taken in NSG tradition, by consensus.
The problem compromise is on transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technology (ENR) to India. India is adamant that this should not be barred to India. But many countries are insisting on barring this to India.
The compromise that has been offered to India is that the NSG would defer decision on India's demand until it decides on its own guidelines. India would reject this outright, say sources, because accepting any bar on ENR would mean the choking off of India's nuclear industry — it means India would import reactors but cannot enrich fuel to feed it or reprocess to clean up.
Comes down to ENR!

The testing clause is again being multilateralized in principle, with the only saving grace that it is difficult to get a consensus. However should NSG some day change its rules of voting, it would become risky. Even if and only if this has to give, it must be explicitly mentioned, that it must be done by consensus (and hopefully India is a NSG member soon to obstruct such a consensus).

Perhaps India should make such flexibility dependent on similar flexibility by NSG to accept India as a member.
And how is all this multilateral rigmarole with every Tom, Dick, and Harry in this world acquiring a say in India's decisions better than doing a separate deal with Russia?

After Georgia, this is more probable than before. After all, reactors, uranium, ENR -- all three are available from Russia.

What is the cost to Russia of walking out of NSG? Or daring the NSG to expel it? This cartel is headed for interesting times.
sraj
BRFite
Posts: 260
Joined: 12 Feb 2006 07:04

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sraj »

What made me fly off was TPS suggesting more changes which shows whose side is he batting.
TP Sreenivasan's Blog
Blog
From a December 7, 2005 speech at the Stimson Center, Washington, DC posted on his blog:
There are half-baked notions about India using its plentiful thorium resources to replace uranium. The wastefulness of re-inventing the wheel does not seem to impress the “swadeshi” fraternity.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

sraj wrote: And how is all this multilateral rigmarole with every Tom, Dick, and Harry in this world acquiring a say in India's decisions better than doing a separate deal with Russia?

After Georgia, this is more probable than before. After all, reactors, uranium, ENR -- all three are available from Russia.

What is the cost to Russia of walking out of NSG? Or daring the NSG to expel it? This cartel is headed for interesting times.
That depends on whether Russia would be willing to make deals outside of NSG rules! If India has to say no to the terms of the Waiver, and Russia is willing, well then there is no reason to reject Russian offer. In fact, if assures itself this third option (first being going it alone), then chances are good NSG would accept next time with a far lower entry barrier.

It may not be bad if Russia in its rebellious mood just says that Russia is willing to do nuclear commerce with India regardless of NSG decides. That could give us a fillip in these negotiations. Georgia Imbroglio and Collapse of 123 Agreement with USA could of course encourage rebellious moods. :)
Last edited by RajeshA on 27 Aug 2008 04:42, edited 1 time in total.
samuel
BRFite
Posts: 818
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 08:52

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by samuel »

What's going on with the RU-US 123 then? Deep freeze?
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

sraj wrote:From a December 7, 2005 speech at the Stimson Center, Washington, DC posted on his blog:
There are half-baked notions about India using its plentiful thorium resources to replace uranium. The wastefulness of re-inventing the wheel does not seem to impress the “swadeshi” fraternity.
$100 billion plus is less wasteful as it would go to Sreenivasan's friends at the IAEA. :shock:
Baljeet
BRFite
Posts: 410
Joined: 29 May 2007 04:16

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Baljeet »

ramana wrote:Howla ya ulloo ban raha hain in hyderabadi lingo.....
A reality check is needed here. What happened in the NSG is a plain old sucker punch. For to those not familiar with the term its American street slang for being sandbagged or caught completely off guard. To recap the sequence was that J18 would be followed by M3 when the Indian separation plan comes is made public. Then a India-US 123 agreement would be negotiated. That agreement wont be ratified by US Congress till India gets the IAEA Safeguards agreement negotiated and then the obtain the NSG waiver. After that the Indo-US trade can take place.

After crossing all hurdles the NSG waiver is hung up due to objections from some of the members whose contribution to the NSG is negligible or dubious at best. The US has not done its part in obtaining the waiver on terms that are acceptable to India. When small things cast big shadows its time for sunset or manipulated lighting effects. It means either the US is surprised or they are allowing this to happen.

So why has this happened and what are the consequences?

The Russian move on Georgia is a significant move during this period. Maybe the US does not want the waiver to come through for it could mean providing an opening for other powers to get the Indian market. Yes they also wont get it but they don’t hwave stuff to sell except as system integrators.

Then the paralysis is J&K can be seen. Curiously when TSP is facing a major civil war and a leadership crisis and are out of reckoning in Kashmir affairs except to provide ceasefire violations (31 to date), the APHC which is a US stooge makes a big play for another Partition of India and the Govt is paralyzed into inaction due to the outcome of the NSG Waiver. So what is going on? The delay increases the paralysis and provides facts on the ground for the Partition movement.

The US and the intl. community wants India to give more. Essentially give up nuclear weapons. That’s what all those four letter adherence means.
The main objections from the Commonwealth countries are quite hurtful especially as that body survives because of Indian membership.
The European Nordic countries are seeing the deal in race terms.

There is some thing clearly wrong in this picture.
-----------
Why is Mulford saying what India will do? Mar gaye khya?
Ramana
I agree, I had same thoughts for while just didn't write the post. As far as we Indians are concerned, **** NSG, **** Uncle, **** 123, 456 and Hide act. If we have a political leadership with b@lls instead of losers we wouldn't be in this pickle. it is really embarrassing when goat sh!t countries like Ire-land, Switzerland, Austria and New Zea Land can bully 7th largest nation in the world. I say this to NSG and Ameri Khan in punjabi and haryanavi--apnee deal noo apney mooh vich paa ley, apnee deal ney apney bheetar dey ley. If we had a great powerful leader, after this deal failure he will conduct few more nuke tests, take the agreement and publicly tear it up. Go on agressive mode for building nuclear power reactors and weapons on desi technology, lets steal whatever we can. Jab ghee seedhi oonglee sey nahi nikalta to oonglee tedhi kar lo.
Rangudu
BRFite
Posts: 1751
Joined: 03 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Rangudu »

I wouldn't mind a 123 type language where the word "test" was never mentioned but merely implied. Look at 123 article 13.
Each Party shall endeavor to avoid taking any action that adversely affects cooperation envisaged under Article 2 of this Agreement. If either Party at any time following the entry into force of this Agreement does not comply with the provisions of this Agreement, the Parties shall promptly hold consultations with a view to resolving the matter in a way that protects the legitimate interests of both Parties, it being understood that rights of either Party under Article 16.2 remain unaffected.
As long as the word "test" or any synonym is used in the NSG waiver, India should be okay with "consultations"
Pulikeshi
BRFite
Posts: 1513
Joined: 31 Oct 2002 12:31
Location: Badami

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Pulikeshi »

R,

While in theory it sounds great - what does it mean to have consultation with 45 odd countries?

Next thing you know, we would have reinvented the United Nations into -
United GanaRajya

Maybe not a bad thing! :P :mrgreen:
samuel
BRFite
Posts: 818
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 08:52

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by samuel »

Baljeet wrote: Ramana
I agree, I had same thoughts for while just didn't write the post. As far as we Indians are concerned, **** NSG, **** Uncle, **** 123, 456 and Hide act. If we have a political leadership with b@lls instead of losers we wouldn't be in this pickle. it is really embarrassing when goat sh!t countries like Ire-land, Switzerland, Austria and New Zea Land can bully 7th largest nation in the world. I say this to NSG and Ameri Khan in punjabi and haryanavi--apnee deal noo apney mooh vich paa ley, apnee deal ney apney bheetar dey ley. If we had a great powerful leader, after this deal failure he will conduct few more nuke tests, take the agreement and publicly tear it up. Go on agressive mode for building nuclear power reactors and weapons on desi technology, lets steal whatever we can. Jab ghee seedhi oonglee sey nahi nikalta to oonglee tedhi kar lo.
Right, what the choo*ad phat are we doing with the NSG anyway? We wanted a deal with the US. Its got this noose called NSG round its neck. When it figures out it has got permission from them, it can come back and we'll talk. How and why was this let to become a transaction between India and the NSG now? Why are our guys even there? Why the heck do we need to think of NZ, Ireland?

and, I'd add: aho, te mirch bhi mere se le le.
fanne
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4282
Joined: 11 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by fanne »

So we give all that for what - Because few ppl can 'sell' and resale India and like UN resolution on JK put us in permanent bind. I am sure when JK was being taken to UN on advice from UK and many 'imminent' NRI and RNI (Resident Non Indians), chief being Nehru - these were the same discussion happening. Lets put these conditions, let put a condition that pakistan has to withdraw first and this and that....everyone who sold were backslapping themselves, since pakistan will never fulfill that condition, there will never be a vote and we will keep JK forever. See how much we have lost due to that resolution.
Same will be fate of this NSG resolution. As a similar one is going to be used against Iran for attack (that they violated there IAEA/NSG commitment) a similar one will be used against one day in the future to 'defang' us after we have been fully 'castrated
through this deal. We dont gain anything from this deal but we loose a hell lot. A NDA govt or even Nehru/Indra (maybe Rajeev too) congress would have never signed a treaty like this.
My concise is clear, I have no monetary gain to make, no American friends to impress, I am fully objective in my thought process, and I believe, may God this deal collapse!!
Let me quote A ghose (of PVNR govt) - Our nuclear status is not for someone to grant us and neither we are seeking one. Even today we cannot import outdated computer chips for LCA from US (few months old case - Shows the intent), to think that US will share any kind of technology and/or critical raw material is foolish to say the least.
rgds,
fanne
Ps - Did not someone posted that the main stream Media plays this trick - They have many so called Jingo articles on many things mainly sport etc. so that they win your trust and then slyly advance cause of independent Kashmir...I believe a similar game is also being played in the forum.
vsudhir
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2173
Joined: 19 Jan 2006 03:44
Location: Dark side of the moon

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by vsudhir »

A few more days and it should all become clear as day.

Just hoping we aren't saddled with a bitter fait accompli.
samuel
BRFite
Posts: 818
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 08:52

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by samuel »

vsudhir wrote:A few more days and it should all become clear as day.

Just hoping we aren't saddled with a bitter fait accompli.
It already is and we already have been. But that's just my opinion and you (meaning people of said opinion) are my own people, so I (we) will wait, right behind you. And we won't tell ya we told you so either, 20 years from now.
Vick
BRFite
Posts: 753
Joined: 14 Oct 1999 11:31

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Vick »

If the language regarding multilateral critique of India's testing stays in the final draft, India will and should walk away. That language is in breech of the agreement with the US.

But the thing is that this is posturing. This testing language will be omitted in the final draft. This posturing is a mechanism to show that the NSG process is not a rubber stamp process, which it is.
Locked