India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

[NRao]

The NSG should never have gone to a "2nd draft" or a "revised draft". In hind sight , in fact, this was set up to fail. I suspect it was unwillingness on the part of Bush to go any further. Which is fine .....these things happen. BUT, if that is true, then both Wash and ND should have called it quits and gone back to base. To push it any further - to give the Bush Raj any brownie points is not worth it at all - India is stooping too low.

Also, IF this deal breaks any strategic links, it is time that AK resign at that the time it is known.

[John Snow]

All that garam hava of mavericks of the world and his chelas will change direction now, as they were all talking about trust....

MMS
'Mere nasib may hai dosh, tera pyar nahi.....' is the farmaish song

This 123 saga is almost like bollywood thriller...

[NRao]

Almost? It seems to have been written for it only.

I had high BP with the Hyde Act, drank through 123, accepted IAEA. But, this drama of NSG is too much. The US should quit the G-8.

[Shankar]

The high political costs of accepting new conditions on sensitive issues like testing and curbs on enrichment and reprocessing have thrown the India-US nuclear deal into fresh turbulence.

With the Manmohan Singh government battling charges of having limited India's strategic options through a pact which makes conducting a nuclear test more difficult, accepting new multilateral commitments might be a bridge too far. The government might find it increasingly difficult to sell such a deal at home.

The first official indication about how the Indian government views the developments in Vienna was provided by foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee who said on Saturday that New Delhi won’t accept any "prescriptive conditionalities" imposed by the select nuclear commerce club in the exemption that India is seeking.

the writing was on wall all along only our corrupt and undereducated and un informed leaders tried to think otherwise . The situation today is even they cannot lie any more and have acknowledged the reality which is 123 is nothing but NPT/FMCT by back door

so i am happy and repeat the famous statement

you can fool some people some people some time
some people all the time
but never all people all the time

congress will loose the deal (hopefully) and any remaining vestige of international political credibility not necessarily in that order

at least our nation will saved from a long term political military disaster

[Gerard]

Govt holds high-level meeting on nuclear issue

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee held hour- long discussions with the Prime Minister's Special Envoy on Nuclear Deal Shyam Saran and senior officials of the Ministry of External Affairs and Department of Atomic Energy on the issue here.

[Rangudu]

I'm surprised that people who have watched every stage of this deal continue to write it off every time.

We faced the same blocks before J18 was announced

We faced the same challenges before 123

We faced the same issues before IAEA.

In every case, the blockage was caused by NPAs within the US bureaucracy.

In every case, once MMS called Bush and Bush cracked the whip, the NPAs fell in line.

My bet is that the same thing will happen in September again.

Unkil just needs the right motivation for high level intervention. After that, he will send Condi and Dick Cheney rather than the "Deputy Under Assistant Subjuinior Secretary of State" for getting the pipsqueaks to fall in line.

However, as I noted before, this deal is a Rohrsach test and everyone projects their own hopes into every new development.

The NSG ayatollahs have had a chance to vent. Now their bosses in each of their countries will take a look and decide if they really want to carry through this fun and games to a more serious level.

My bet is that they will not.

[Gerard]

National Seminar on India's Energy Crisis and Indo-US Nuclear Deal held ay GNDU

India's former Permanent Representative in the UN and former Ambassador; Arundhati Ghosh said "the status of the Deal is not well known". It is very tentative. She expressed her concern about the lack of knowledge on the part of masses. She said that by 2030, India shall be importing 91% of oil and gas from abroad, hence, we would have to pursue our foreign policy accordingly.

[geeth]

>>>Indeed, a situation has now arisen where the U.S. may go ahead with the September 4-5 NSG meeting and press the adoption of a diluted, conditional waiver despite Indian pposition in the hope that Dr. Singh will have no option but to submit to this fait accompli.

If Russia / France are indeed interested in giving India a clean deal, can't they just press for a vote on Amreekan proposal, thereby shatter the 'consensus' and kill it?

I feel that there may be a link between the WTO talk and this NSG fiasco..may be unkeel is trying to armtwist India into submission int WTO deal..

[RajeshA]

Somehow the Americans don't really understand India.

MMS is not America's partner, it is the Indian Civil Society. Up until now the decision of India is divided.

IMHO, there are
20% totally against any truck with America,
5% totally in favor of hitching our wagon on to the American train, and
the rest 75% is in favor partnership if it is in India's interest.

The feeling in that 75% is cautiously optimistic, because that 75% was assured by MMS, that the Govt. would try to win back the territory lost to Hyde, a little over 123 Agreement, a little more through IAEA Safeguards Agreement, and with NSG Waiver it will be back to J18 Statement with the International Community.

Hyde was sold as a tactical setback to win a strategic victory at the NSG, and India gave its grudged approval.

Any further yielding to the Americans, means just one thing, that 75% of India, would move on mass into the negative column. Anil Kakodkar's resignation or even an outburst would be sufficient to turn the tide. Do the Americans really think, they can pull it off, and hoodwink the masses.

I think they make the mistake, that just because the Indian elite and the middle class feels at ease with the American way, that somehow makes them gullible.

Anything more than a bit of gloss on the Draft of the Waiver, means curtains for the Deal.

I also believe that after the criticism for Russian intrusion into Georgia, means Russia would be willing to deal with India outside of the NSG provisions.

[Prem]

We dont trust our poliiticians and babus.

Walking out of the whole panga is not good. Let NSG pass the whatsoever waiver and if not acceptable let them know they dont want India as a partner so blame falls on Uncle and his chamchas. Its better of they fail us instead we give them the excuse.
And dont forget to add the names of those 8 Muncipalites in the enemy list which we can dust it off in due time to punish them . They need to undertand acting like a cunt- ry has its own consequenses.

[svinayak]

Hyde was sold as a tactical setback to win a strategic victory at the NSG, and India gave its grudged approval.


Do the Americans really think, they can pull it off, and hoodwink the masses.

I think they make the mistake, that just because the Indian elite and the middle class feels at ease with the American way, that somehow makes them gullible.

What if Indian political leadership is with US to hoodwink the Indian masses.

[Pulikeshi]

However, as I noted before, this deal is a Rohrsach test and everyone projects their own hopes into every new development.

The NSG ayatollahs have had a chance to vent. Now their bosses in each of their countries will take a look and decide if they really want to carry through this fun and games to a more serious level.

My bet is that they will not.

R,

There is no evidence to suggest that the NPA or NSG Ayatollahs differ in their interests from those of Unkil.

MMS's government will be brought down in a second - if conditionalities are accepted by his government.

Bush's historians will probably be writing about "who lost India" rather than the controversial president who changed the course of history.

In the meanwhile some fun with mythology:

1. Vishwamitra promises Trishanku of making him enter Swarg.
2. Failing which Vishwamitr promises Trishanku that he will create an alternate Swarg.
3. The Devataa are very upset as Vishwamitr wants to replicate Indra, etc. in new Swarg.
4. Vishwamitr relents and creates a "new" Swarg only for Trishanku with conditionalities

Notice - Trishanku is passive in all these affairs - has India done any differently?

PS: Forget your mythology at your own peril. There is a reason grandmothers taught these stories to us on their laps

[ramana]

With the dust up in Georgia, Poland & Czechs accepting US NMD bases ad talk of revival of new Cold/Warm War , are KS assumptions that large scale new wars are passe, still valid?

It was this conclusion that is the basis of the living with Hyde Act that allows the deal to go forward. is that conclusion still valid?

I think its time to revisit this premise.

[Neshant]

China will continue to supply pakistan with nukes and reactors under the table regardless of any treaty.

The govt is too eager for this deal and is glossing over all of these dangers. The present govt will lock India lock into a treaty and paint is as a success even while others selectively proliferate nukes as and when they wish.

[RajeshA]

Hyde was sold as a tactical setback to win a strategic victory at the NSG, and India gave its grudged approval.


Do the Americans really think, they can pull it off, and hoodwink the masses.

I think they make the mistake, that just because the Indian elite and the middle class feels at ease with the American way, that somehow makes them gullible.

What if Indian political leadership is with US to hoodwink the Indian masses.

Acharya Ji,
First this is not across the board.

Secondly the Indian political leadership also has to listen to the electorate and the opinion makers.

Thirdly, I think, the Chinese have guessed correctly, that Indian foreign policy is simply too independent to come under the yoke of USA, is very correct. Never thought, I would make the Chinese such a compliment.

Fourthly, the Agreements are open to inspection. Even if there are any secret assurances, the next Govt. does not need to abide by them.

[kshirin]

With the dust up in Georgia, Poland & Czechs accepting US NMD bases ad talk of revival of new Cold/Warm War , are KS assumptions that large scale new wars are passe, still valid?

It was this conclusion that is the basis of the living with Hyde Act that allows the deal to go forward. is that conclusion still valid?

I think its time to revisit this premise.

I completely agree: if the US tries to play dirty as SV reports, it is time to re-examine the premises of this "alliance" with a country which conjures pretexts for new wars from nothing. However Rangudu is more optimistic, and the US does need some friends in the international system, it will be 100% their loss if they lose India.

[Neshant]

> Secondly the Indian political leadership also has to listen to the electorate and the opinion
> makers.

no it does not.

the amarnath yatra land issue proves the govt will just make decisions and then run & hide.

MMS is either eager to win a post at the world bank or IMF after he's done. Or he's looking for a nobel prize in economics. He is putting India in a precarious position locking the country up in deals while China/US will continue to hand over nukes and missiles left, right and center.

One question that should be asked point blank at the NSG - how is it countries which have signed on have proliferated with no consequences yet India is expected to adhere to the treaty.

[svinayak]

What if Indian political leadership is with US to hoodwink the Indian masses.

Acharya Ji,
First this is not across the board.

Secondly the Indian political leadership also has to listen to the electorate and the opinion makers.

Thirdly, I think, the Chinese have guessed correctly, that Indian foreign policy is simply too independent to come under the yoke of USA, is very correct. Never thought, I would make the Chinese such a compliment.

Fourthly, the Agreements are open to inspection. Even if there are any secret assurances, the next Govt. does not need to abide by them.

The current govt with low mandate has less room and political capital for building consensus with electorate.
Indian political elite is vulnerable by being bought over with money by large powers and this was shown in the vote of confidence.

[Pulikeshi]

Neshant,

You are right - India's NSG statement should have started out with:

"Let she who has not proliferated cast a stone on our record!"

Each and everyone of the Devvataa are complicit in breaking their own rules.
Yet they want to ask India to abide by the rules of "Heaven".

However, on political cost.
Amarnath is different from NSG - one is internal the other national interests (according to average janta).
If MMS agrees to a waiver with conditions -
The Congress Party can kiss its future goodbye in India for some time to come!

Expect the left, third parties and BJP to all have a field day skewering Congress till kingdom come.
Ironically, the Left comes out the victors in the exercise in such as case and the BJP wins the political mileage for not having supported MMS.

The comes Obama/Biden renegotiations with Advani/Vajpayee/Modi

In the meanwhile - lite ley - drink beer - kavo popcorn and deko khel! - There may be a second innings!

[enqyoob]

It's not over yet. What has happened is that the initial draft came out, the opposition came out... Maybe the right answer will dawn that an NSG consensus is not possible.

Then it becomes a majority decision, and the draft that then gets voted in, may be quite acceptable.

This is how I would play it, and I think GOI-US gang is as smart as I am. IOW, the real target here is the "NSG consensus" tradition. Maybe US wants the "out" of saying that unfortunately, the Russia-France axis is what led to the fall of the NSG.

AFAIK, there is not much love between the US and the NZ-Austria-Ireland gang.

[Arun_S]

RajeshA ji,
Nothing to do with enrichment capability.

Its because unlike proven data and countless DAE's submissions to Indian people and parliament for the last 50 years, need for imported fuel is an artificially created desire by vested interests propounding that India is short of indigineous Uranium and that import is necessary. Or Shri MMS touting nuclear power to alleviate Indian electricity (nay total energy) shortage. { I say fat chance}.

Time and again DAE scientists have shown that indigenous 70,000 tonne of natural uranium is enough to transition to FBR/AHWR based thorium fuel cycle. And the MMS Govt hid the news of discovery of 100% more indigenous Uranium from Indian people till after the Nuclear deal driven no-confidence motion in parliament and IAEA negotiations .

Hay but $100Bn of imported LWR contract and $300Bn of imported Uranium business on public fund/public guaranteed loan, creates lots of opportunities and vested interest. Like selling snake oil to a snake charmer who already has enough oil for his needs.

As in MahaBharat Bhishma said laying on the bed of arrows: "Power Corrupts". And more recently some western philosopher in 19th century said "Power corrupts, Absolute power corrupts Absolutely".

This deal in reality has little to do with Indian nuclear energy needs, it is about creating a rightful space for India commensurate with its innate potential and aspirations/destiny. Its about earning and flouting that black belt, knowing which no one messes with it. Alas the black belt is moth eaten and instead a tool to twist and tie for ever Indian credible nuclear deterrence.

As my village friends would say: "Dhobi Ka Kutta, Na Ghar Ka, Na Ghat Kaa" I.e. Neither protecting Indian interests this way, nor that way.

JMT.

But can the uranium be extracted economically? and can India build Uranium based power plants economically?

The use of Thorium is of course a attractive solution. But agian, my understanding is that Uranium based power production is cheaper.

Rishirishi ji,
Every speck of dust in India has Uranium, albeit at extremely low concentration. Geologists in India like the world-over classify any mineral as economically viable by determining the economic cost of extraction of the desired metal/mineral, that is generally a liner function of prevailing global market price of the commodity.

So the 77,500 tonnes of Uranium deposit in India (before the 9th August 08 announcement of additional 75,000 tonnes) was based on a certain threshold of extracting Uranium amongst all the uranium bearing dust in India. Pls see:
Atomic Minerals Directorate (AMD), DAE, Government of India, http://www.amd.gov.in/work/uranium.htm
and
Nuclear Power in India: Uranium Information Centre Ltd, Australia, http://www.uic.com.au/nip45.htm

These RAR (reasonably assured reserves) figures are based on low cost of Uranium prior to 2004. Based on current prices and 'futures' of Uranium for next few decades the economic viability threshold is much more attractive. Pls see: http://www.wise-uranium.org/uod.html

Bottom line is that cost of Uranium recovery from published RAR Indian Uranium deposits is not significantly different from viable RAR deposit in other countries. {of course some countries make fat profit from highly concentrated deposit, they sell at price set by market thus for India it is still the high price set by market and not what Aussies or Candians mine it for. Similar to what India pays for crude oil import compared to money that Gulf states make, cheap fields in Arabia/Iran/Iraq, does not make Indian Oil fields in Bombay High or Kaveri basin any less attractive for India}

Based on current price of Uranium and RAR threshold the Indian RAR reserve is much higher than the published 77,500 and 94,000 tonnes, and that is apart from new discovery reported in August 08, of 75,000 tonnes.

To get a sense of cost of fuel for LWR (that is in line with my earlier cost estimate for LWR fuel for DAE's idea of 40GWE LWR in next 11 years)
http://world-nuclear.org/info/inf02.html

In January 2007, the approx. US $ cost to get 1 kg of uranium as UO2 reactor fuel at likely contract prices (about one third of current spot price):

Code: Select all

Uranium: 	8.9 kg U3O8 x $53 	     US$ 472
Conversion: 	7.5 kg U x $12 	     US$ 90
Enrichment: 	7.3 SWU x $135         US$ 985
Fuel fabrication: 	per kg 	       US$ 240
 Total, approx: 	  	               US$ 1787

At 45,000 MWd/t burn-up this gives 360,000 kWh electrical per kg, hence fuel cost: 0.50 c/kWh.

If assuming a higher uranium price, say two thirds of current spot price: 8.9 kg x 108 = 961, giving a total of $2286, or 0.635 c/kWh.

The above is based on Yellow cake's (U3O8), old price of $53/Kg. Current market price is 3 times of that @ $142/Kg.

[Rangudu]

What if the BJP is actually working for Islamic jihadis in secret?

What if George W. Bush is an alien working to undermine the human race?

What if we all don't exist in reality and this is all an illusion - Maya?

---

So many what ifs but so few answers. One thing is clear, no one has changed his/her views on this thread since July 18, 2005. Every one is projecting his/her pet theories, conspiracy or otherwise in the name of discussing the nuclear deal.

[putnanja]

N-deal hope in Obama mate - K.P. NAYAR

Nuclear key in ‘clever’ words

Nuclear key in ‘clever’ words
OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT
New Delhi, Aug. 23: Clever language might be used to overcome the trouble encountered by the draft proposal to exempt India from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) rules for civilian nuclear trade, a senior nuclear scientist said today.

The 45-member NSG met in Vienna on August 21-22 but failed to agree on the draft proposal it had received from the US on a waiver agreement to facilitate nuclear trade with India. A small number of NSG countries want the waiver to address their views on non-proliferation and have expressed their resistance to a blanket waiver.

“If this goes through, it will only be by fixing language (of the waiver document),” said A.N. Prasad, former director of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, who has been among critics of the proposed civilian nuclear deal.

“What happened yesterday was no surprise at all,” Prasad told The Telegraph. “It would have been stupid to expect that all the NSG member countries would agree to unconditional nuclear supplies (to India),” he said.

Prasad said even if subtle changes acceptable to all the NSG members and to India were introduced in the waiver document through “language fixing”, the non-proliferation intent would remain. “The intent is to get India to give up the testing option,” he said.

“We walked into a trap,” said P.K. Iyengar, a physicist and former chairman of India’s atomic energy commission. “It should have been obvious that some NSG countries have their own perceptions about non-proliferation.”

Iyengar said Delhi should have pursued civilian nuclear trade through bilateral pacts that would have allowed India to negotiate with each nuclear supplier. “What nuclear supplies do Austria, Ireland or New Zealand have to provide?” he asked.

In a statement that appeared to echo these sentiments, the CPM politburo today described the NSG waiver as “another surrender in the offing”.

Whatever wording the US will make in a revised draft, as in the case of the 123 Agreement and the IAEA safeguards agreement, the NSG waiver will be in conformity with the “unacceptable conditions” of the Hyde Act, it said.

“The whole attempt is to see that a text of the waiver is so drafted that will allow the Indian government to claim it has virtually got a clean waiver,” the CPM politburo said.

Non-proliferation analysts have argued that supply of foreign nuclear fuel to India’s civilian nuclear plants would free India’s limited domestic fuel supplies to be channelled into its nuclear weapons programme.

“This would be inconsistent with NSG commitments… not to assist in any way the nuclear weapons programme of another country,” Daryl Kimbal, executive director of the Arms Control Association, a Washington-based think tank, had said earlier this month in an analysis of the draft waiver document.

[svinayak]

“If this goes through, it will only be by fixing language (of the waiver document),” said A.N. Prasad, former director of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, who has been among critics of the proposed civilian nuclear deal.

“What happened yesterday was no surprise at all,” Prasad told The Telegraph. “It would have been stupid to expect that all the NSG member countries would agree to unconditional nuclear supplies (to India),” he said.

Prasad said even if subtle changes acceptable to all the NSG members and to India were introduced in the waiver document through “language fixing”, the non-proliferation intent would remain. “The intent is to get India to give up the testing option,” he said.

“We walked into a trap,” said P.K. Iyengar, a physicist and former chairman of India’s atomic energy commission. “It should have been obvious that some NSG countries have their own perceptions about non-proliferation.”

This is what is being argued in BRF but some people keep insisting that language change will give India benefit. This is like hoodwinking the Indians. Few Indians are OK with this.

[sanjaykumar]

It won't be over because of some castrati but when the 800 lb gorilla signs.

[RajeshA]

India rebuffed on nuke sale pact: The Australian

Provocative Headline, but

Australia is backing India's application within the NSG and is believed in New Delhi to be doing what it can to persuade Wellington to do so as well.

[Arun_S]

Time to refresh memory on the economically viable Indian Uranium :

Urea policy, uranium mining plan get govt nod

9 Aug, 2008, 0129 hrs IST, ET Bureau
NEW DELHI: The government on Friday approved a new policy for fertiliser makers to boost investments in the sector and reduce government’s subsidies. The government also cleared a Rs 200-crore uranium mining plan that will boost the country’s nuclear power programme. The idea is to add another 75,000 tonnes of uranium for the programme, science and technology minister Kapil Sibal said here after a meeting of the Union Cabinet.

Mr Sibal said the new fertiliser investment rules would promote joint ventures abroad, which will help meet India’s domestic demand through imports at competitive prices. According to the new policy, additional urea from the revamp of existing units will be recognised at 85% import parity price with a floor price of $250 and a ceiling price of $425 a tonne. Urea from the expansion of existing units would be recognised at 90% of import parity price with a floor price of $250 a tonne, the government said in a statement.

The new policy also provides that coal gassification-based urea projects will be treated at par with other new and existing plants, which will encourage use of local coal. Analysts expected fresh investments to be announced because of linkage to import parity pricing. The policy was approved by the Cabinet committee on economic affairs (CCEA) chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

The government also decided to provide more market access to least developed members of the South Asian Free Trade Area (Safta). It has been decided to remove 264 items from the sensitive list of 744 items on which market access was restricted. The move is in line with the country’s announcement to open up its market to these countries without insisting on reciprocal benefits. Mr Sibal said India’s exports to these countries exceed imports from them.

The CCEA also cleared a proposal to invest Rs 200 crore on exploration of uranium to increase fuel supplies to atomic energy generation stations. The panel approved investments of Rs 120 crore over the next four years and Rs 80 crore in the five years ending 2017 on uranium exploration. This would add another 75,000 tonne of uranium resources to the country’s nuclear power programme, Mr Sibal added.

The CCEA also approved another plan to augment the country’s ability to identify areas for exploration of concealed uranium deposits. The project cost is estimated at Rs 258.69 crore.[/b]

The government also approved deals on maritime transport and social security with The Netherlands, a social security agreement with Germany, a bilateral investment promotion deal with the Syrian Arab Republic and deals on agriculture with Botswana and Canada.

Given that GoI is the mai baap for poor injuns, I did not want to be proven wrong at the will of powers to be, (Some will recall the jewish parable of "Is the bird alive or dead?"). I had known for many months, of the addition 75,000 tonne Indian Uranium reserve, but then since mai baap had all the data and not a free-bird like me I had to keep my peace.

I am glad that post-facto of no-confidence motion in parliament pivoted on India-US civil deal, the honorable Shri MM Singh's government has decided to share this good news from under the carpet. The existence of additional 75,000 tonnes of natural uranium if reported earlier would burst the bogie/baloon of "India has small Uranium reserve" and compromise the "reason to exist" for the nuclear deal with US.

To remind the significance of the numbers. Indian known Uranium reserves have been traditionally pegged at 77,500 tonnes (to as high as 94,000 tonnes if secondary quality ore is also taken into account). India did extensive aerial survey last few years and they found as much more Uranium then was was known before (but that info was kept to a tight circle of people). And if Union Cabinet can have more meetings where "Science and technology" minister is allowed to have more ideas at the right time, he can add another 75,000 tonnes to India's "U" ore reserve at whim.

This would add another 75,000 tonne of uranium resources to the country’s nuclear power programme increasing the Uranium reserve from 77,000 tonne to 152,000 tonne. DAE did the hard work, the political masters did their thing. DAE deserve our commendation on prospecting and finding the additional 75,000 tonnes. Good job DAE. That will go a long way to serve ATV fleet for next 150 years, as well as fast AHWR/FBR ramp up on our own steam. Now ATV just needs credible payloads. Now full steam with LIF pleeze.

Can Indian science and technology minister do the same for Petroleum reserve and Gold please?

Similarly, information that is not widely known is, gas reserves in Godavari is many times more of earlier estimate and Rajesthan is sitting on large gas reserve. So much that India can thumb or play hardball on Iran gas pipeline deal.

That reminds me of another parable from greater India that at the time consisted of greater Gandhaar and what is now called central Asia (Tajakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbakistan and Eastern Turkmenistan).

The Hunter and the Bird

A hunter once caught a small bird. ‘Master,’ said the bird, ‘you have eaten many animals bigger than I without assuaging your appetite. How can the flesh of my tiny body satisfy you? If you let me go, I will give you three counsels: one while I am still in your hand, the second when I am on your roof, and the third from the top of a tree. When you have heard all three, you will consider yourself the most fortunate of men. The first counsel is this: “Do not believe the foolish pronouncements of others.” ’

The bird flew on to the roof, from where it gave the second counsel, ‘ “Have no regrets for what is past.” Concealed in my body is a precious pearl weighing five ounces. It was yours by right, and now it is gone.’ Hearing this the man began to bewail his misfortune. ‘Why are you so upset?’ asked the bird. ‘Did I not say, “Have no regrets for what is past”? Are you deaf, or did you not understand what I told you? I also said, “Do not believe the foolish pronouncements of others.” I weigh less than two ounces, so how could I possibly conceal a pearl weighing five?’

Coming to his senses, the hunter asked for the third counsel. ‘Seeing how much you heeded the first two, why should I waste the third?’ replied the bird.

Please note the term "uranium resources" used in the above press release.
http://www.wise-uranium.org/uod.html

The International Atomic Energy Agency defines the following categories for uranium resources [IAEA2004]:

• * Identified Resources (formerly Known Conventional Resources)
  • o Reasonable Assured Resources (RAR)
    o Inferred Resources (formerly Estimated Additional Resources I (EAR-I))
  * Undiscovered Resources
  • o Prognosticated Resources (formerly Estimated Additional Resources II (EAR-II))
    o Speculative Resources (SR)

Since not all uranium can be recovered from an ore deposit during mining and milling, resource estimates can be meant for:

Code: Select all

	                                      Meaning	                                           Losses taken into acount
in-situ resources	                   uranium contained in ore deposit	                           none
recoverable in-situ resources	       uranium contained in mineable ore	                    mining losses
recoverable quantities of uranium	   uranium recoverable from mineable ore	            mining and milling losses

IAEA uses the term "resources" for recoverable quantities of uranium.

Various other categories are in use worldwide, for example:

Definitions by the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum and incorporated into National Instrument 43-101:

CIM DEFINITION STANDARDS - For Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves

• * A mineral resource is a concentration or occurrence of diamonds, natural solid inorganic material, or natural solid fossilized organic material in or on the Earth's crust in such form and quantity and of such a grade including base and precious metals, coal and industrial materials, or quality that it has reasonable prospects for economic extraction. The location, quantity, grade, geological characteristics and continuity of a mineral resource are known, estimated or interpreted from specific geological evidence and knowledge. Mineral resources are subdivided, in order of increasing geological confidence, into inferred, indicated and measured categories.
  • o An inferred mineral resource is that part of a mineral resource for which quantity and grade or quality can be estimated on the basis of geological evidence and limited sampling and reasonably assumed, but not verified, geological and grade continuity. The estimate is based on limited information and sampling gathered through appropriate techniques from locations such as outcrops, trenches, pits, workings and drill holes.
    o An indicated mineral resource is that part of a mineral resource for which quantity, grade or quality, densities, shape and physical characteristics, can be estimated with a level of confidence sufficient to allow the appropriate application of technical and economic parameters, to support mine planning and evaluation of the economic viability of the deposit. The estimate is based on detailed and reliable exploration and testing information gathered through appropriate techniques from locations such as outcrops, trenches, pits, workings and drill holes that are spaced closely enough for geological and grade continuity to be reasonably assumed.
    o A measured mineral resource is that part of a mineral resource for which quantity, grade or quality, densities, shape and physical characteristics are so well established that they can be estimated with confidence sufficient to allow the appropriate application of technical and economic parameters, to support production planning and evaluation of the economic viability of the deposit. The estimate is based on detailed and reliable exploration, sampling and testing information gathered through appropriate techniques from locations such as outcrops, trenches, pits, workings and drill holes that are spaced closely enough to confirm both geological and grade continuity.

• * A mineral reserve is the economically mineable part of a measured or indicated mineral resource demonstrated by at least a preliminary feasibility study. This study must include adequate information on mining, processing, metallurgical, economic and other relevant factors that demonstrate, at the time of reporting, that economic extraction can be justified. A mineral reserve includes diluting materials and allowances for losses that may occur when the material is mined. Mineral reserves are subdivided in order of increasing confidence into probable mineral reserves and proven mineral reserves.
  • o A probable mineral reserve is the economically mineable part of an indicated and, in some circumstances, a measured mineral resource demonstrated by at least a preliminary feasibility study. This study must include adequate information on mining, processing, metallurgical, economic and other relevant factors that demonstrate, at the time of reporting, that economic extraction can be justified.
    o A proven mineral reserve is the economically mineable part of a measured mineral resource demonstrated by at least a preliminary feasibility study. This study must include adequate information on mining, processing, metallurgical, economic and other relevant factors that demonstrate, at the time of reporting, that economic extraction can be justified.

The amount of reported resources does not include those amounts identified as reserves.

BTW, Yellow Cake(U3O8) is equivalent to 84.8% Uranium.

[samuel]

Well, every step reinforces Hyde a little more. We have to wonder why that is. I think the GOI guys are really smart. They knew up front exactly what they'd have to sell-out, and they've managed that really well. Each time, hum aur kuch nahin de sakhte bhai....na na bhiya, mazaak nahi, arre nahin nahin......acha, acha, theek hai, ye lo thoda aur.
Chalo, at least we'll have more promised electricity for the poor, more promised visas for the espejialijed jobs in uajjae and definite kickbacks for some.

S

[Prem]

All bout Uranuim
http://seekingalpha.com/article/79590-d ... lize-at-60

Uranium prices have been in total free fall over the last 12 months, dropping from a record high of $135 a pound to $60 a pound. So is the bleeding over?

Desjardins Securities analysts John Redstone and John Hughes think it is. They're betting that prices will now settle down and average $60 in the long term, because supply and demand are finally moving into balance.

In a note to clients the analysts wrote:

We expect supply growth to match our most aggressive demand growth profile, keeping total inventories well above adequate levels.

However, they noted that there could still be plenty of volatility, as investment funds can hold up to 10,000 metric tonnes [KMT] of uranium, and any change in that "long" position could lead to turmoil in the spot market.

In the shorter term, they expect that buying sentiment in the spot market could continue to be weak, as about 40% of uranium mine production capacity under development is due on-stream this year. At the same time, the global increase in demand is expected to be steady over the next five years, but not spectacular.

[Prem]

What if the BJP is actually working for Islamic jihadis in secret?

What if George W. Bush is an alien working to undermine the human race?

What if we all don't exist in reality and this is all an illusion - Maya?

---

So many what ifs but so few answers. One thing is clear, no one has changed his/her views on this thread since July 18, 2005. Every one is projecting his/her pet theories, conspiracy or otherwise in the name of discussing the nuclear deal.

Rman, sometime people here forget that game needs to be played till the end . Its aint over till its over. You dont "walk out" but "find out' by staying till finish /khlas. NSG oppertunity is good way to measure who is who and what is what in regard to India in this group. They play then we play, they pretend and we pretend ,they get serious we get serious but just dont act till our interests are served . Let Saran go to DC for exploration and not for comprosmise.

[Gerard]

Iyengar said Delhi should have pursued civilian nuclear trade through bilateral pacts that would have allowed India to negotiate with each nuclear supplier.

And the NSG full scope rule would magically disappear during this bilateral negotiation?

[enqyoob]

I wonder what happens if the Deal(s) are signed, agreements are agreed, CTBT is signed, and the month after, there is a sudden realization in Dilli that China has taken over 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 sq.mm of Arunachal Pradesh, followed by a sharp escalation in tensions and threats of "vely vely vely vely VELY glave consequences", and India tests 10 bums under the National Security Imperative clause of CTBT.

Point is that one sharp move and all the years of diplomatic wrangling and posturing become irrelevant. Like what happened with the Western Yahya Khan's antics August 7-15.

[Arun_S]

Prem sabhib,
The long term "futures" price of Uranium to settle at $60/lb (I.e. $132/Kg), was based on status-quoue on India to stay in dog house, to eat of local Uranium harvest and for eternity be trying the technology to make the 3 stage fuel cycle work.

If India comes into NSG controlled global U market, with just the DAE/Anil Kakodkar's 40GWe LWR in 11 years, those reactors will absorb 12,100 tonnes/year from the market (1.2 million tonne over the lifetime of the LWR). That for sure will jack up the futures price of uranium. So I think $60/lb is under-priced if India enter the fry of U powered reactors, to supplement/support the delayed 3-stage fuel cycle.

[Arun_S]

I wonder what happens if the Deal(s) are signed, agreements are agreed, CTBT is signed, and the month after, there is a sudden realization in Dilli that China has taken over 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 sq.mm of Arunachal Pradesh, followed by a sharp escalation in tensions and threats of "vely vely vely vely VELY glave consequences", and India tests 10 bums under the National Security Imperative clause of CTBT.

Credible N-weapons are for "Deterrence", what is the use of test when deterrence is "al-lady" broken with "vely vely vely vely VELY glave consequences"?

India needs to tests 10 bums now (not later) so that its weapons are credible and precludes the occurrence of "vely vely vely vely VELY glave consequences" of 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 sq.mm of Arunachal Pradesh.

So it is not a check and egg situation, India requires "Credible N-weapons" unambiguously verified in the eyes of the beholder (I.e. China etc) before it gets into any of this nuclear fuel negotiation.

[Rangudu]

Iyengar said Delhi should have pursued civilian nuclear trade through bilateral pacts that would have allowed India to negotiate with each nuclear supplier.

And the NSG full scope rule would magically disappear during this bilateral negotiation?

Exactly. If some CPIM Chinese puppet had said this at least we could chalk it up to ignorance but when people like PKI say it one has to wonder who they are trying to fool.

[RajeshA]

A Live Example of Unkil trying to manipulate Indian Media and Indian Media quitely acquiescing.

A small setback at NSG: Economic Times Bureau

But while we can well demand a “clean exemption”, and oppose conditionalities, it does makes sense to be reasonably flexible. The Indo-US nuclear deal after all does have built-in mechanisms for such practicalities.

The 123 Agreement, for example, requires further legislative changes prior to key technology transfers and the like. If in its next meet the NSG remains chary of granting India carte blanche approval on sensitive issues like trade in enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) technology and equipment, a measure of flexibility on our part, without compromising our core concerns, may not be out of place.

The agreement with the NSG can leave waiver requirements for ENR technology to a later date. The immediate task at hand is to get an NSG waiver, albeit conditional, so that the nuclear deal gets legislative okay in the US Congress without further delay. The Bush administration, after all, has only a few months in office. So speed is of essence.

Also, ENR may not have operational significance in the here and now. Of course, once the nuclear deal has legal sanctity, and India resumes nuclear trade with the international community after a gap of over 34 years, the environment would be so much more conducive for greater give and take.

As if the Economic Times was really in the loop, what the core restriction will be. Sacrifice of full civilian nuclear cooperation (ENR Technology) is what the haggling would be. If US can't sell additional conditions to the Indian electorate, than how about additional restrictions.

Economic Times is the traitor.

[Gerard]

Prasad said even if subtle changes acceptable to all the NSG members and to India were introduced in the waiver document through “language fixing”, the non-proliferation intent would remain. “The intent is to get India to give up the testing option,” he said.

Once sales are not conditional, this intent is irrelevant.

[Gerard]

Stand up to NSG

The Pioneer Edit Desk

Say a firm 'No' to conditions for waiver

With every passing day, apprehensions about the India-US civilian nuclear cooperation agreement turning into an instrument in the hands of non-proliferationists to neutralise India's military nuclear capacity are proving to be true. Beginning with the manner in which the Americans manoeuvred the nuclear separation plan to suit their purposes to the drafting of the 123 Agreement in accordance to the provisions of the Hyde Act, from the US-inspired draft for an IAEA inspection regime to the latest document seeking exemption from NSG rules that at present prohibit nuclear trade with India, Washington, DC, appears to have had its way with New Delhi. Obsessed with pushing through the India-US nuclear agreement at any cost to the nation, the Prime Minister and his advisers have only strengthened mounting fears of a sellout to the Americans and substantiated the points raised by critics of the deal through their absurdly excessive secrecy as well as attempts to mislead both Parliament and the people. The agreement that has been firmed up with the IAEA bears little resemblance to what was promised; now that the 45-nation NSG's approval for waiver of rules is required, there is little reason to believe what the Prime Minister will finally settle for will be 'clean' and 'unconditional'. Countries like Austria, New Zealand and Australia have raised objections to the draft that was circulated at last week's two-day NSG meeting in Vienna, and called for amendments. In the absence of an agreement to waive NSG rules for India, the group is scheduled to meet again next month for further deliberation. These objections are linked to the stated position of non-proliferationists who refuse to acknowledge India's status as a nuclear weapons state, namely the need to place legally binding restrictions on India's strategic nuclear programme with the intention of rolling it back and ultimately neutralising it.

Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon has said India will "not accept prescriptive conditions", a point reiterated by Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee. While there is no cause to take a bureaucrat's comment seriously in view of the Prime Minister's unwavering commitment to the nuclear deal -- such commitment is abysmally lacking on pressing issues like fighting terrorism or putting the economy back on the rails -- Mr Mukherjee's assurances have turned out to be hollow in the past. Not surprisingly, America is willing to consider amendments to the draft, a fact that has been driven home by the blunt-talking US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher who has let it be known that "there might be changes (to the waiver text) that we could accept". The Bush Administration is in a hurry to secure NSG waiver because it wants the US Congress to ratify the deal as soon as possible; it cannot be expected to be particularly bothered about 'prescriptive' or 'restrictive' conditions imposed by the NSG. This is all the more so because the Prime Minister has signalled acquiescence to each and every demand just so that he can saddle India with a hugely flawed agreement weighed against the national interest. Even at this stage he can redeem himself by declaring enough is enough and refuse to concede the demands of the NSG. If that means the deal will go into cold storage, so be it. India cannot be made hostage to American interests.

[Rishirishi]

Prem sabhib,
The long term "futures" price of Uranium to settle at $60/lb (I.e. $132/Kg), was based on status-quoue on India to stay in dog house, to eat of local Uranium harvest and for eternity be trying the technology to make the 3 stage fuel cycle work.

If India comes into NSG controlled global U market, with just the DAE/Anil Kakodkar's 40GWe LWR in 11 years, those reactors will absorb 12,100 tonnes/year from the market (1.2 million tonne over the lifetime of the LWR). That for sure will jack up the futures price of uranium. So I think $60/lb is under-priced if India enter the fry of U powered reactors, to supplement/support the delayed 3-stage fuel cycle.

Thanks for the answer Arun_S

I am trying to get the big picture here.

1 The price if Uranium would go up, if India went full steam with the U based nuclear reactors. Also bearing in mind that Chinas plans
2 India does not have sufficient ammount of U to make such an expansion. (requirement of 12000 MT per year, while the total domestic supply is 152 000 MT).
3 There would not be sufficent global U supplies for both India and China, to meet a sizable part of their energy requirement.

It is tempting to conclude that U based reactors will not solve the energy problem. If that is the case, then why is the deal so important. MMS put massive efforts to get the deal passed through the parliament. Why did he do that?

I am really confused.

[enqyoob]

Arun, trouble is, I can't agree that the Dlagon will be detelled by 10 bums or 10,000 bums, from small incursions into Arunachal etc. Just as India need not be deterrred by China's existing nuke capabilities from pushing them out any time. In fact this precisely why there is no sense in burning up national credit by going and doing "tests" of high-yield nukes.

Both countries know that the other is not going to go to the strategic nuclear option, but neither can bet that the other won't react with battlefield nukes, especially in remote Himalayan valleys.

So conventional power and economic self-reliance, with a few tactical nukes available if things get really serious, are all that really matter there. If China tries takeovers in Arunachal and India decides to make an issue of it and throw them out, then of course China will try to use that to attack somewhere else, but if they know that there will be an Indian breakout in another place, or that the IAF will wipe out their incursion forces, then there is deterrence.

IMO, any Indian nuke test will be met with precisely a new Chinese land incursion, that stays well below the threshold for a nuclear war. And unless India has conventional power, there's not a damn thing Dilli can do about it other than to close its eyes and pretend that nothing is happening. This is the cold reality of being weaker in conventional and economic might, and all the megaton bums and IRBMs in the world won't change that.

Look at the Indian response to 61 years of Pakis killing our citizens daily - and compare that to what China would have done to a neighbor who tried that for even a day. There is absolutely no deterrence, until India shows some smarts.