India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

RajeshA
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby RajeshA » 30 Aug 2008 02:50

Harbans Ji,
there is a sufficient confidence in the Indian leaders and bureaucrats with respect to Treaties and Agreements, which everybody can see and dissect, and there is a healthy and sometimes a vociferous opposition both in political domain and media, which point out certain controversial points in the Treaties or Agreements.

However as far as many deals are concerned, especially defense deals, it is all too murky and there are too many subjective determinations on technical aspects, that the aam aadmi will just not understand it.

So trust in bureaucrats and leaders depends on the sphere, we are talking about.

JMT

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby enqyoob » 30 Aug 2008 03:34

Acharyaji:

Quoting the Most Authoritative Validating source (i.e., moi):

"There are certain sections who claim they are on the Indian side, but who do not mind if the nation walked away from a good deal on the basis of frivolous objections, as long as it makes certain political parties look bad.

They have been working on the PR to fool the rest of the people to say that whatever the government does is evil and stupid."

Just quoting moiself to make sure everyone gets it. :mrgreen:

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby NRao » 30 Aug 2008 04:21

I think "revised" is a condition!! And, revised drafts are never "clean" until the final draft, when everyone thinks it is clean.

Time filler.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby enqyoob » 30 Aug 2008 05:49

"Revised" could also be "simplified", "shortened" and "improved".

As in

Original:

"whereas the Government of the Sovereign Republic of India has declared a unilateral morarjithorium on supercritical explosive testing, whether atmospheric, undersea or underground, involving nuclear fissionable materials"

Revised:

"long as dem Injuns don't make glowing boom-boom. "

(ducking out now..) 8)

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby svinayak » 30 Aug 2008 09:14

Second Take
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/o ... BD4A830841

THE Bush administration has long been guilty of a fundamental inconsistency on the issue of nuclear proliferation. On the one hand, it insists that international sanctions must be targeted on Iran until it suspends its uranium enrichment programme.

On the other hand, President George Bush makes the opposite argument when it comes to India, saying India’s illicit pursuit of nuclear weapons can be forgiven. Three years ago, the White House declared it was prepared to allow India to buy nuclear fuel and equipment for its civil nuclear programme. India was required to offer nothing in return.

If the US Congress is to approve the pact, it must first be ratified by an obscure body called the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), an organisation set up to ensure no country exploits foreign nuclear assistance as India has. At a meeting last week, NSG member states failed to give the deal the green light, tabling extensive conditions that India must meet if it is to receive nuclear material. Bush’s allies say it is a pity the international community is dragging its feet . They say the deal is strategically smart because it has ended 40 years of hostility between India and the US and balances the rising power of China. But the costs far outweigh any benefits. This deal makes a mockery of the nonproliferation treaty. And it threatens to accelerate the nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan.

The NSG will again convene next month and must apply as many conditions as possible to India’s nuclear programme before giving the deal the go-ahead. Better still, the next US president should ditch the entire policy. He should opt for an approach that reforms the rules of the nuclear game both for America’s friends and foes. London, August 26

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby RajeshA » 30 Aug 2008 12:24

Now NSA M.K. Narayanan adds his voice to Operation Strengthen the Backbone, after Anil Kakodkar and Pranab Mukherjee have already made their contributions.

India not to accept NSG waiver if 'red lines' are crossed: NSA: PTI

New Delhi, Aug 30 (PTI) Ahead of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) meeting, India has said it will not accept the waiver from the 45-nation grouping if the "red lines" set by it are crossed.
National Security Adviser M K Narayanan made it clear that inclusion of any clause on testing, periodic review or denial of enrichment and reprocessing technology in the text of the NSG waiver would be unacceptable and hoped a way around these issues would be found through diplomatic efforts.

"There is no question of cosmetic or otherwise. What we are really asking is, there are certain issues on which there are certain red lines drawn by us because those are the commitments that had been made by our Prime Minister," he told Karan Thapar's 'Devil's Advocate' programme when asked whether cosmetic changes would be acceptable to India.

"On red lines we cannot, that's what we told our parliament that these are sacrosanct and if these are not met we cannot endorse the agreement," Narayanan said.

Asked to comment on some NSG member countries' position that the cooperation should be terminated if India were to conduct any test, Narayanan said the usage of word testing would not be acceptable to India.

"We have always made the point that testing is a word that we find difficult to adjust to not because of anything else but because that is what parliament has mandated us to do." "I presume testing will be difficult for us to, so we will find ways around it. We are clear that whatever we finally agree to in NSG should be something that we can sell to parliament," the National Security Adviser said. PTI


It is a good thing, that NSA has clearly stated, what the red lines are. Up till now, we have only had abstract statements, like "clean and unconditional", "no prescriptive conditions", etc. but seldom the definition of India's red lines.

According to M.K. Narayanan, a subset of red lines at the present juncture are inclusion of:

1. any clause on testing
2. periodic review
3. denial of ENR technology

Exactly the main points of contention on which the NPAs & Pipsqueak insisted upon.

I hope India does not allow language calling for cutoff of fuel supplies, or return of imported nuclear wares, including fuel.

A rough list of red lines was earlier compiled by me.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby Pulikeshi » 30 Aug 2008 13:10

While we are in the business of quoting ourselves - even a child can see this! :mrgreen:

X-posting from Aug 22 2008 on Page 28 - Where I said:

Pulikeshi wrote:I am no expert -
but the ENR is what is targeted.

Of the three items that is causing constipation -
1. Testing
2. Periodic Review
3. ENR

The first two causes instability of Trishanku's swarg and hence is unacceptable.
However, ENR helps Unkil be competitive against Russia/France and
the other Devataa are satisfied that they won something...

My two "dumb" paisa on the matter!

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby RajeshA » 30 Aug 2008 13:38

Sonia Gandhi taking the political call now.

PM, Sonia discuss NSG draft: TimesNow

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today (August 30) held deliberations with Congress president Sonia Gandhi and some other senior colleagues over the nuclear issue ahead of the NSG meeting in Vienna.

The meeting, also attended by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Ahmed Patel, Political Secretary to the Congress president, is understood to have assessed the revised draft prepared by the US for consideration of the Nuclear Suppliers Group at its meeting on September 4-5.

The meeting is understood to have deliberated upon the situation in view of the original NSG draft waiver being amended because of concerns expressed by various countries.

The Congress leadership is believed to have weighed options available if things do not work out as desired at the upcoming meeting of the NSG.

Singh earlier held similar consultations with Mukherjee, National Security Adviser M K Narayanan and Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Anil Kakodkar on the issue amid the hope that 45-nation grouping will give a "clean" and "unconditional" waiver.

Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon, who is in the US and in touch with the American officials there, is also in constant contact with Mukherjee and Kakodkar over the issue.

Menon will be travelling to Vienna for the NSG meeting directly from the US.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby RajeshA » 30 Aug 2008 13:48

Pulikeshi wrote:While we are in the business of quoting ourselves - even a child can see this! :mrgreen:

X-posting from Aug 22 2008 on Page 28 - Where I said:

Pulikeshi wrote:I am no expert -
but the ENR is what is targeted.

Of the three items that is causing constipation -
1. Testing
2. Periodic Review
3. ENR

The first two causes instability of Trishanku's swarg and hence is unacceptable.
However, ENR helps Unkil be competitive against Russia/France and
the other Devataa are satisfied that they won something...

My two "dumb" paisa on the matter!


IMO, You're right with Testing and Periodic Review being incompatible with Trishanku's Swarg. However BJP or Left can take up Denial of ENR just as well to pound MMS on not delivering what he promised. MMS has mentioned access to ENR also in Parliament. The Deal has to be sellable and sellable well.

Also from the technical perspective, it has be stressed that ENR is a very important component of a viable nuclear industry.

The 123 Agreement also foresees a permission to India to import ENR.

So I would guess, that ENR would be allowed automatically but with a certain delay, "after a certain time of increasing confidence between NSG and India" blah, blah. {maybe a year or so}.

JMT.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby NRao » 30 Aug 2008 17:37

So, ................ IF the Sept NSG meeting is held then the deal is going through, and, if the meeting is cancelled, of course, obviously, the deal is dead and Bush can retire to Crawford immediately? The stars (on the ground and not in the sky) seem to be aligning in India.

Lock this thread until after Jan 2009?

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby sraj » 30 Aug 2008 18:42

So I would guess, that ENR would be allowed automatically but with a certain delay, "after a certain time of increasing confidence between NSG and India" blah, blah. {maybe a year or so}.

India's commitment not to export ENR should then also come into force "with a certain delay", at the same time as ENR is allowed by NSG "after a certain time of increasing confidence between NSG and India" blah, blah.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby NRao » 30 Aug 2008 20:13

India's commitment not to export ENR should then also come into force "with a certain delay", at the same time as ENR is allowed by NSG "after a certain time of increasing confidence between NSG and India" blah, blah.


Who's ENR, Indian or imported? Anything imported is a given - no discussion. Besides it is still at 20%, right? So, what is the problem with them?

They have the ability to count atoms too. Dunno if they have the capacity, but who cares.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby sraj » 30 Aug 2008 20:35

NRao wrote:
India's commitment not to export ENR should then also come into force "with a certain delay", at the same time as ENR is allowed by NSG "after a certain time of increasing confidence between NSG and India" blah, blah.


Who's ENR, Indian or imported?{if no ENR is allowed to be imported into India by NSG, is this not a moot point?}

My reference is to what was 2d in the NSG waiver draft submitted by US to NSG on August 21.
[2]d. Refraining from transferring enrichment and reprocessing technology to states that do not already possess these

Similarly, India's commitment to adhere to NSG guidelines (2f below) should also be directly linked to NSG waiver of those guidelines for India. In other words, if one year from now, NSG violates the waiver by placing additional restrictions on exports to India, then India's commitment lapses.
[2]f. Harmonizing its export control lists with those of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and committing to adherence to NSG guidelines

Remember "Reciprocity" and "Parity"? MMS has committed in the Lok Sabha to these metrics.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby nkumar » 30 Aug 2008 20:46

link

Pranab says we want clean waiver, sidestepping 'unconditional'

In a subtle though significant shift in its position, the UPA Government appears to be preparing to accept conditions imposed by the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers' Group for a waiver from its rules that prevent nuclear trade with India.

Asked whether India would be getting an 'unconditional' waiver from the NSG at the September 4-5 meeting despite demands for amendments to the draft waiver discussed at this month's meeting in Vienna, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said, "We have made it quite clear that we are interested in a clean waiver from the NSG. We have presented our case. We have made our position clear to interlocutors.

Till now, the Government's position has been that it will settle for nothing less than a "clean and unconditional" waiver. The omission of "unconditional" from Mukherjee's comment indicates the Government has shifted its position. Mukherjee was speaking to mediapersons on the sidelines of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation foreign ministerial meeting in New Delhi on Friday.

The US, which has been seeking support for a India-specific waiver with the NSG member-countries, has made it amply clear that it is open to amendments to the draft. The US Ambassador to India, David Mulford, is on record as saying that India should not talk about an "unconditional waiver" as it is "provocative".

At the August 21-22 meeting of the NSG, at least 15 countries, including New Zealand, Austria, Norway, The Netherlands and Switzerland, had sought changes in the draft and proposed as many as 50 amendments linking the waiver to non-proliferation. High on their list of amendments were clauses that would deny India enrichment and reprocessing rights and automatically end nuclear trade if India were to carry out a nuclear test.

Later on Friday, Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Anil Kakodkar, however, maintained the waiver "has to be within the parameters of July 18,2005 understanding (between India and the US)". He told newspersons, "We have done every bit of what we were supposed to do" and "so we can't accept any more conditionalities. No conditionalities should be there".

Asked whether there has been a subtle shift in the Government's position, Kakodkar said "don't think about language, think about substance". On whether the NSG will agree to a clean waiver for India at the September 4-5 meeting, he said, "allow time to judge".

Kakodkar, asked whether the Government would reject a draft that included conditions, said, "One has to see the product. One cannot reject a product without seeing it."

link

Pranab hints at a shift in Delhi line on NSG waiver


BY OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT

with agency inputs

NEW DELHI

Aug. 29: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Friday discussed the nuclear deal with external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee, national security adviser M.K. Narayanan and Atomic Energy Commission chairman Anil Kakodkar here. The talks centred around the revised draft NSG waiver.

Earlier in the day, using less provocative language as desired by his American interlocutors, Mr Mukherjee said India wanted a "clean" NSG waiver. He omitted referring to an "unconditional" waiver, which India had been seeking till the last NSG plenary in Vienna.

"What we wanted... we have made it quite clear we are interested in a clean waiver," Mr Mukherjee told reporters Friday on the sidelines of a meeting of the foreign ministers of the seven Bimstec (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) countries.

Mr Mukherjee added that India was working with interlocutors and also talking directly to NSG members. "We shall have to wait for the final outcome."

A few hours later, Dr Anil Kakodkar reverted to the old formulation, saying the waiver "has to be within the parameters of July 18, 2005 understanding (with the US)." Speaking to reporters after a lecture at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses here, he said India had "done every bit of what we were supposed to do" and "we can’t accept any more conditionalities."

In the NSG’s extraordinary August 21-22 plenary in Vienna, almost half of its 45 members proposed amendments to the draft waiver circulated by the United States, with at least 20 countries seeking to impose conditions on India in return for a waiver. National security adviser M.K. Narayanan is likely to be in Vienna for the NSG’s September 4-5 meeting.

Some of the conditions tabled at the last NSG plenary included intrusive inspections of Indian civilian nuclear sites, cancellation of the waiver if India tests a nuclear device and periodic review of Indian compliance with the exemption.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby Amber G. » 30 Aug 2008 20:55

Sorry for x post, (specially if it is already posted).. but NZ etc should look at Physics Today article:
usatoday report
Report says China offered widespread help on nukes
8/29/2008 10:43 AM
By Dan Vergano, USA TODAY
(USA) -- China gave Pakistan the blueprint for an atomic bomb, testing the finished product in 1990, and unveiled a sophisticated nuclear weapons complex to visiting U.S. scientists in the last decade, report former weapons lab officials.

Former Air Force secretary Thomas Reed, a former weapons lab scientist, paints a portrait of China as a reckless distributor of nuclear weapons know-how in a report released Thursday in PhysicsToday magazine. He charges the Chinese with giving extensive weapons support to Pakistan in detail far beyond a 2001 Defense Department report that acknowledged such links.

"The Chinese nuclear weapons program is incredibly sophisticated," Reed says. "The scary part is how much Pakistan has learned from them." The Chinese and Pakistani embassies in Washington did not reply to requests for comment on the report.

Reed is the co-author with Danny Stillman, former Los Alamos (N.M.) National Laboratory technical intelligence director, of a book coming out in January on the Chinese nuclear weapons program.

Stillman sued the Central Intelligence Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency and Department of Defense after they classified 23 of the book's pages, preventing their publication. U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan upheld the classification last year.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby RajeshA » 30 Aug 2008 21:28

That is a very interesting Article in PhysicsToday:

The Chinese nuclear tests: 1964 - 1996

Stilman's visit to the SINR (05.04.1990) also produced his first insight into the extensive hospitality extended to Pakistani nuclear scientists during that same late-1980s time period. As we shall see, that cooperation, initiated earlier in the decade, led to a joint nuclear test in China soon after Stillman's departure.

In 1982 China's premier Deng Xiaping began the transfer of nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan and, in time, to other third world countries. Those transfers included blueprints for the ultrasimple CHIC-4 design using highly enriched uranium, first tested by China in 1966.

A Pakistani derivative of CHIC-4 apparently was tested in China on 26 May 1990.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby NRao » 30 Aug 2008 21:56

AG,

They help build that environment. They are aware of it.

The real issue is allowing India into the N-Club. As in J-18.

This IMHO is a matter of time.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby Gerard » 30 Aug 2008 23:06


Gerard
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby Gerard » 30 Aug 2008 23:14

A Conversation With Condoleezza Rice
But the 800-pound elephant in the room was could we overcome the nuclear cooperation barrier that has existed ever since the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty--India not signing the NPT and India being a nuclear weapons state. And so setting out to do that then puts the relationship on a completely different level. And when people talk about landmark agreements, I think that's really what they're talking about.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby sraj » 30 Aug 2008 23:45

Lame Duck Sessions Since 1933
The US Congress has had a "Lame Duck" session (i.e. after the November elections) on a large number of occasions, including in 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006.

In 1970-71, the lame duck session extended from Nov 16 - Jan 2. In 1940, it went on from Nov 7 - Jan 3.

The infamous Hyde Act was hustled through in the 2006 lame duck session by the Republican controlled House and Senate (not the NPA influenced Democrats, as the Bush Admn would like the general mass of Indians to believe!).

The Bush Admn therefore has a lot of cushion built into their calendar in order to meet the "30-day Congress sitting" required for an up or down approval of the 123. Of course, if they want to play dirty, they can agree to Congress waiving the 30-day requirement in return for the ability to put conditions on the 123 approval.

Bottomline:
i) Don't be surprised or perturbed if the Sept 4-5 NSG meeting does not decide anything. Just part of the on-going US attempt to incrementally renegotiate J18 at every step using others to provide plausible deniability, in which they have succeeded so far.

ii) If India does succeed in getting an acceptable NSG waiver by early November (the real deadline), expect the US to try to use their Congress to put conditions on the 123 agreement as "the only way out" since the 30-day sitting requirement "will not be met" (conveniently!) by the duration of the lame duck session.

India needs to stand firm, and more importantly, take the game to the opposing team's goal area by directly linking J18 commitments with reciprocal US and NSG actions (ENR, NSG, MTCR).

India also needs to have an appropriate response ready at every stage of this process (hopefully we have learned from the Hyde fiasco, which definitely caught GoI by surprise).
Last edited by sraj on 31 Aug 2008 00:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby Arun_S » 30 Aug 2008 23:49

India not to back-down on its position before next NSG meet news
30 August 2008
Ahead of the second meeting of the 45-nation grouping that comprises the Nuclear Suppliers Group, due to be held on 3 September, India has said it will will not accept the waiver if the "red lines" set by it are crossed.

National security adviser M K Narayanan told a new programme that the inclusion of any clause on testing, periodic review or denial of enrichment and reprocessing technology in the text of the NSG waiver would be unacceptable and hoped a way around these issues would be found through diplomatic efforts.

Narayanan said the outcome of the NSG meeting on August 21-22, which could not arrive at a decision to grant a waiver to India, was neither a debacle nor debacle nor a setback, as the negotiators were prepared for it as they had been warned in advance that it it may be necessary to have two rounds of meetings with the NSG before finalising something which would be mutually satisfactory.

He denied that India was arm-twisting countries like Ireland, Austria, New Zealand, Switzerland who had created hurdles at the NSG as support for the waiver was not a touchstone for friendly relations with any country, saying, "I believe if anybody is friendly to us, they will benefit."

The national security adviser categoriclly stated that there was no question of cosmetic or other changes, saying what India was really saying is that India that on certain issues "there are certain red lines drawn by us" obn the basis of the commitments made by the prime mjinister inn Parliament and the government could not go back on them, saying, "These are sacrosanct and if these are not met we cannot endorse the agreement."

On the position of some NSG countries that the civillian nuclear cooperation should be terminated if India conducted any nuclear tests, Narayanan said the usage of word "testing" would not be acceptable to India, saying that testing was a word that it finds difficult to adjust to, because that is what Parliament had mandated the government.

"We are clear that whatever we finally agree to in NSG should be something that we can sell to Parliament," Narayanan said on the programme, adding that a way out would be found on this through "creative diplomacy".

The national security advisor also stated that demands from some NSG countries for the exclusion of enrichment and reprocessing technology in the NSG waiver, singling out India would not be acceptable as none ogf the NSG countries, barring the US had banned the enrichment and reprocessing technology transfer per se.

He said if a country did not want to provide enrichment and reprocessing technology but still wanted nuclear commerce, India would will draw guidelines for it.

He also ruled out any possibility of accepting periodic reviews of the waiver as India had put all its cards on the table in a transparent manner and therefore could not accept a review mechanism as those investing in the civil nuclear facilities, would not accept it as they would need to tie-up their resources for several years.

"Our concerns are well known. I think most of the countries recognised the validity of our concerns. There are some countries who I think are ideologically committed to their concepts of non-proliferation and hence tend to take a sort of hardline position on this," he said.

He said it was a question of convincing those countires that India with its impeccable record of non proliferation, support for for universal nuclear disarmament was a "right candidate for nuclear commerce."

Narayanan said India would have no objection if the views of some of countries were reflecteded in the statement of the NSG Chair as long as it did not inhibit India from "what we believe is clean and unconditional waiver."

Narayanan said since India is not a member of the NSG, it has to depend on other countries to push its case and appreciated the efforts of the US, Russia, France, the UK and other countries in pushing India's case, saying, "I think we are nearing the goal."

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby Arun_S » 31 Aug 2008 00:19

Oh BTW this refurbished W76 on US Trident will be riding on a new blunt noses ablative heatshield that resembles Agni-II RV. The US Fleet Ballistic Missile have all these years relied on heat sink based RV design with sharp tip (using graphite tip).

These were some nuclear experts like "David Allbright" that pronounced Indian Agni's blunt shape to argue for its expected inaccuracy and primitiveness. The fools are eating crow manure now I guess. The following picture is from BR website: "US Trident ICBMs now switching to blunt nose separating shockwave Mk4A RV design. Uncanny similarity with Indian Agni-RV"
The Eastern RV gyan will now be repackaged as originally coming from leading Yamri Khan musharraf.

The news.
Y-12 completes first unit for Trident warhead after long delay
By Frank Munger (Contact)
August 13, 2008

OAK RIDGE - Federal officials today confirmed that workers at the Y-12 nuclear weapons plant had completed the first set of refurbished parts for the W76 warhead.

The milestone is an indication that the life-extension project is back on track after unspecified technical problems delayed Y-12's work on the warheads for more than a year. The Oak Ridge plant specializes in so-called secondaries - the second stage of thermonuclear warheads.

W76 warheads are deployed on Trident submarine missiles, and they are considered an essential part of the U.S. nuclear defense strategy in the post-Cold War era.

"My understanding is the first production unit (of the W76) has been diamond-stamped here within the past couple of week," Bill Ostendorff, the principal deputy administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration, said today during a visit to Y-12.

Ostendorff participated in ceremonies related to modernization efforts at the Oak Ridge plant, which was constructed during the World War II Manhattan Project.

The federal executive took a seat in a backhoe and knocked a hole in the roof of Building 9733-3, one of the wartime facilities that's being demolished at Y-12 to reduce maintenance costs and make way for newer facilities to be constructed.

A series of buildings that once constituted the plant's "Engineering Row" were deemed surplus last year after the opening of the new Jack Case Center, a 412,000-square-foot office structure that now houses much of the plant's engineering staff and administrators.

Over the past six years, more than 280 buildings - covering about 1.2 million square feet of floor space - have been demolished at Y-12. The activity is similar to what's taking place at other parts of the U.S. nuclear weapons complex. The Oak Ridge plant was hailed today as a leader in "transforming" the complex to a smaller, more efficient model for the 21st century.

The W76 life-extension program is expected to take years to complete. Workers are taking apart old warheads that were manufactured many years ago and refurbishing parts to make sure the weapons work as intended if they're ever used.

There have been numerous news reports and much speculation during the past year about what delayed work on the W76, with some reports focusing on a mysterious material code-named "fogbank."

Ted Sherry, the federal manager at Y-12, confirmed the production milestone but would not discuss details of the W76 work.

"We had a technical issue that required a lot of support from other sites, as well as drawing on a lot of expertise here at Y-12," Sherry said. "It involved reconstitution of an old process. It's quite challenging to reconstitute something you haven't done in awhile."

Ostendorff added, "We are pleased that we've been able to resolve these issues. But I think one should not underestimate the challenge of stopping a production process and then many years later trying to resume it. That's been tough."

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby sivab » 31 Aug 2008 00:28

http://svaradarajan.blogspot.com/2008/0 ... es-at.html
Transcript: NSA Narayanan on India's red lines at the NSG

According to the NSA, India won't accept in the revised Nuclear Suppliers Group draft waiver:
* an explicit reference to a nuclear test by India triggering adverse consequences
* a provision for periodic review
* a separate ban on enrichment and reprocessing equipment sales to India by the NSG
He also says India would have no great issue with the NSG chair making a statement outlining the issues and concerns some states may have on the waiver and on India in general, since this would not impinge on the decision per se.
Here's the transcript of Karan Thapar's interview in full. It will be broadcast on CNN-IBN on Sunday night....

Devil’s Advocate with National Security Advisor, M K Narayanan - Transcript of Segment 1 on Indo-US nuclear deal

CNN-IBN Do you believe that the last NSG meeting in Vienna represented a delay, a setback or a debacle for the Indo-Us nuclear deal?

M K Narayanan: Certainly not a debacle - that I think is very clear - nor do I think it was a setback. It was a pause, I think, in the programme. But I think we were prepared for this because we had been told that it might be necessary to have two rounds before we could finalise something which was mutually satisfactory.

CNN-IBN As you prepare for the second meeting on the September 4, which is just six days away, are you confident you can get clean exemption from the NSG, or have your confidence levels dipped somewhat?

M K Narayanan: You know, we have gone through these efforts many times. There are periods when you are highly elated (and then) sometimes you feel rather despondent. I think we have a good idea after the discussions - which took place in Vienna for the India-specific safeguard agreement – (as to) where many countries stood vis-a-vis India on this question. In the first round, I think many of the concerns were suitably dealt with, (but) some still remain. I think our problem with the NSG is primarily that we are not members of the NSG and therefore, we have to depend entirely on other countries to put forward our case. But I must say that countries like the United States, Russia, France, the UK and number of others have done herculean efforts and I think we are nearing the goal.

CNN-IBN Are you optimistic, you don't sound it by your tone?

M K Narayanan: No, I am optimistic but I don't want to allow my optimisim to override caution.

CNN-IBN Now we are speaking on Friday evening, you are six days away from the next NSG meeting. Has India been shown the new amended draft exemption?

M K Narayanan: This is work in progress. I can't you where exactly where we are on this question.

CNN-IBN Except for the fact that you are on Friday evening, there is weekend coming up, then it will be Monday and then just three days will be left. If you haven't been shown the draft exemption, isn't it running very close?

M K Narayanan: No. We are running close but I don't think we have much of a problem on that.

CNN-IBN So you are confident that your concerns will be taken care of even though you can't admit that you have seen or not seen the draft exemption?

M K Narayanan: There is a constant dialogue that is going on between Delhi and Washington and I think various people across. So, I think we are fully aware of what is going on.

CNN-IBN There are three principal concerns that have been flagged. The first is simply to do with how extensive will the rewrite of the exemption be, are you anticipating a very comprehensive (review), or are you hoping for cosmetic changes or something in between the two?

M K Narayanan: We have sort of already flagged our concerns. Those concerns are well known. I think most of the country recognised the validity of our concerns, there are some countries who, I think, are ideologically committed to the concepts or ideas of non-proliferation and hence tend to take a very hardline position. I think it is really a question of convincing them that India, with its impeccable record of non-proliferation has always stood - if necessary - for the universal nuclear disarmament (and) is the right candidate for universal nuclear commerce.

CNN-IBN That I fully understand. But are you saying that this means you will accept only cosmetic changes rather than anything more substantial?

M K Narayanan: There is no question of cosmetic or otherwise. What we are asking is that there are certain issues which have been drawn in red lines by us because those are the commitments which have been made by our Prime Minister.

CNN-IBN And, on those red lines you can't give way?

M K Narayanan: On those red lines we can't because that we have told Parliament. These are sacrosanct, if these are not met we cannot endorse the agreement.

CNN-IBN The press has highlighted three concerns. The first is the requirement that some NSG countries are talking about a condition that the exemption will terminate if India were to carry out further nuclear testing. Is there any way it could be reflected in the new, amended exemption or would it a deal breaker in any shape or form for India?

M K Narayanan: I think you should give some credit to creative diplomacy in these matters. I presume that we will find a way out it. This the time a deal is done, it is difficult to say yes but I think it should be possible for us to surmount some of these obstacles.

CNN-IBN You mentioned creative diplomacy, could you accept the form of language that is used in the 123 agreement if it were to be used in this new NSG draft. In the 123 (agreement), there is no actual mention of the specific word ‘nuclear testing’. Could that formulation suffice for you?


M K Narayanan: We have always made this point that testing is a word that we find difficult to adjust with. Not because of anything else but because Parliament has mandated us to do so. Testing would be difficult for us. So, we will find ways around it.

CNN-IBN Leave testing apart, but is the rest okay?

M K Narayanan: We are clear that whatever we finally agree to with the NSG countries will be something we can sell to Parliament.

CNN-IBN I think you have hinted a sort of formulation, the 123 language which doesn't mention testing could be acceptable provided it is acceptable to others.

M K Narayanan: I hope that we can move forward on some of these issues.

CNN-IBN Second condition mentioned by the NSG countries is that the exemption should exclude Enrichment and Reprocessing technologies. Given that India has its own ENR technologies, can you live with that exclusion or would that be a deal break?

M K Narayanan: In case of the US, they have certain conditions about allowing the Enrichment and Reprocessing technologies to the countries but in the case of NSG, our case is different. We say that what we are asking the NSG does not have a ban on Enrichment and Reprocessing technologies. There is a broad ban which the NSG has on many items with India which includes any kind of nuclear commerce and related matters. What we are saying is that if you are giving us exemption on those items please, give us exemption because unlike the laws in the US. None of the countries in the NSG have a ban imposed in their countries.

CNN-IBN Don't introduce a specific ban for India in this exemption?

M K Narayanan: Definitely, we don't want ourselves to be singled out for this. What we have made clear - and this is what all of us talked about - if any country does not wish to give us Enrichment and Reprocessing technologies and still wishes to have nuclear commerce, we'll draw up our guidelines according to that. What we don't want is each country's individual predilections forming a huge package of items in the NSG exemptions.

CNN-IBN Quite right, let the NSG not take a position on this issue, let individual countries approach them to do it. Finally, there is also a demand for what is called a periodic review of India's compliance in India's behaviour. Is that acceptable to you in any shape or form?

M K Narayanan: No, we believe this is uncalled for. We have put all our cards on the table, we have been as transparent as anyone else, we are willing to make our case before the NSG, we don't understand what is the need of a review. Principally not because of anything else, but this is a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, it involves commerce, it involves people investing money, countries investing money, it is a long-term agreement. They are putting money for 30 to 40 years so if you have a review at the end of three years and somebody says that oh well this shouldn't be done then nobody is going to invest in this agreement.

CNN-IBN I understand, you make your position very clear on the testing issue, the ENR technology issue and the periodic review concern, does America agree with your positions or do they have question marks or still do they have doubts about your positions?

M K Narayanan: This question should be probably addressed to the US but we have carried conviction to them, to the extent possible. They understand where we come from and that they would help us in the matter.

CNN-IBN Lets focus little on the US' role, do you believe that Washington did enough to prevent the naysayers from pushing amendments or do you think that in fact Washington did not take as hard line as you would have liked it to have taken?

M K Narayanan: This is a dangerous question you have asked me but make me the point. When we were negotiating with the US it was easier because the US knew what it could give and what it could not give. We recognised that the US is the world power, it is both militarily and economically it is one of the dominating countries in the world but even they have some limits. There is always a case of doing better, it is like preparing for examinations. Somebody could always say that you could have prepared more. I personally think that tremendous effort has been made by the US to help us in this matter as have countries like France, Russia and others, where they could have done even more. But even after the first round is over, they are very actively involved. So frankly speaking, I have no complains to make.

CNN-IBN You are not criticising them, you are accepting that they made terrific efforts but you are holding up the possibility that they could have done more?

M K Narayanan: Like in everything else, could I have made a better case before all these people but I have just been cautious so that somebody would pick up (on it) and say x y and z. In as much as they have done in most other cases, they have done here.

CNN-IBN There is a view in the press that the American ambassador's repeated assertion that India's requirement or insistence on unconditional exemption is both inappropriate and provocative. There has also been a position taken about how would Berman..., the Chairman of the House Representatives, Foreign Affairs Committee actually telling Condolezza Rice not to go ahead with exemptions that would in some way circumvent the Hyde Act. Has all of that been unhelpful?

M K Narayanan: No, I think the American ambassador in New Delhi has been an extremely positive factor.

CNN-IBN So, the press has wrongly picked on him?

M K Narayanan: I think they have a love-hate relationship with prominent US diplomats. I have interacted with Ambassador Mulford for the last four years very closely and I think he has done a tremendous job. Few ambassadors would have put as much effort as he has done. Yes, sometimes the statements he makes make people a little annoyed and upset but I think much the same can be said about me. So it's the part of the course.

CNN-IBN Let me put it like this, if the NSG were to grant you a clean exemption on September 4 or 5 but if the chairman of the NSG alongside were to make a statement listing a prescriptive list of suggestions, they are not conditions but suggestions. Could India live with that?

M K Narayanan: I presume it be the Chairman's prerogative to make of what he says and what he likes but as long as they are not laid down as conditions, we have talked in terms of a clean exemption, an unconditional exemption. We have not said that there should be no whisper about what anybody wishes to say. We are not behaving like 16-year-olds and recognise that countries have problems. If the Chairman is making a statement which reflects, to some extent, some of those points, may be. But as long as it does not inhibit us from what we believe is a clean and unconditional exemption, (it’s okay).

CNN-IBN Has India made it clear to countries like Austria, Switzerland, New Zealand, some of the Scandinavian countries (like) Ireland that if they insisted on imposing unacceptable conditions, it would have damaging impact on their bilateral relationships with New Delhi?

M K Narayanan: No, as far as I am aware, we have not done any arm-twisting in this. For that matter, several countries - Russia for instance - has actually offered to help us with Austria. So they are doing most of the talking. I don't think we have tried what I would call unscrupulous or underhand methods to pressurise.

CNN-IBN But you are not suggesting that the Austrians, the Irish or the Swiss could think they could impose conditions which you cannot accept and that there would be no damage to the bilateral relationships?

M K Narayanan: Then, you should ask them. But I don't think we are making that the touchstone for a relationship. It is important, I presume that if someone is friendly with us, they would certainly get a benefit over somebody who is less friendly with us.
Last edited by sivab on 31 Aug 2008 01:00, edited 1 time in total.

Manny
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby Manny » 31 Aug 2008 00:29

For all those Goofballs that still live in the delusional world that India should pursue the UNSC Seat. Here you go.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/f ... 587863.stm

Deadlocked over Georgia, ineffective on Darfur and impotent about Zimbabwe, the BBC's United Nations correspondent Laura Trevelyan asks, what is the point of the UN Security Council?

...
..

As China and Russia become more assertive, of course they will use the veto power as a tool of their foreign policy, just as Britain and France use their permanent member status to punch above their weight
..

My Comment: Let us all put our hands together and work to destroy this evil organization called the UNSC!

MAnny

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby sivab » 31 Aug 2008 00:44

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4209&p=529450&sid=5be41a45d63e9d98b9181d0d0381dd37#p529450

Strategic analyst K Subrahmanyam, a staunch supporter of the Indo-US nuclear deal is not perturbed over the delayed decision by the NSG. “Only those who do not know how the system works believed that the waiver would be obtained in the first meeting. The important meeting is the one ahead and I am confident India will get what it is looking for,” he said.

He believes the ball is now in the US court. It is for Washington to get the language right, one acceptable to India as well as the non proliferation group within the NSG. Subrahmanyam feels that the US, Russia, France, Japan and all countries which are interested in doing multi-billion dollars worth of business with India, will go out on a limb to convince the smaller countries.


Let us see if KS has figured the system correctly ...

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby enqyoob » 31 Aug 2008 00:49

These were some nuclear experts like "David Allbright" that pronounced Indian Agni's blunt shape to argue for its expected inaccuracy and primitiveness. The fools are eating crow manure now I guess. The following picture is from BR website: "US Trident ICBMs now switching to blunt nose separating shockwave Mk4A RV design. Uncanny similarity with Indian Agni-RV"
The Eastern RV gyan will now be repackaged as originally coming from leading Yamri Khan musharraf.


Excuse me, but the computational scheme called Moretti Time-Marching Finite Difference Solution to the Blunt Body Hypersonic problem, was developed in the 1960s/70s precisely for the purpose of ICBM re-entry vehicles. That was to put on a routine basis, what had until then been done by wind tunnel or field flight experimentation.

What is shown here is a very simple cone with a hemispherical nose. This is by far the most common shape for the noses of all hypersonic vehicles. Exactly where, may I ask, have you seen sharp-nosed hypersonic re-entry vehicles?

I am all for giving credit to desi innovations wherever deserved, but what you have posted above is, shall we say, a bit far-fetched and credibilitiologically in the nonlinear yield stress regime?

Of course, I am sure this is what Karna fired at Arjuna's chariot in the Mahabharatha war, 1,750,000,000 years ago. A slight error in the drag prediction resulted in it hitting only Arjuna's crown.

As for David Albright's authority to comment on hypersonics or anything else technical, I think someone else has already commented on those very clearly. (Was it Scott Ritter?)

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby yvijay » 31 Aug 2008 00:50

I'm very impressed with the above interview by M.K.Narayanan ji and the language he used. It was ever so polite but the warnings are pretty strong. Very diplomatic !

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby RajeshA » 31 Aug 2008 00:51

India, U.S. agree on amended NSG draft waiver by Siddharth Varadarajan: Hindu

Text handed over to Chair, made available to members

New Delhi: After 24 hours of negotiations, India and the United States reached agreement on Friday night on the text of the revised American proposal seeking a waiver for India from the export guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

The Hindu has learned that the final text of the revised proposal has been handed over to Germany — NSG chair for 2008 — and has already been made available to the club’s 45 countries.

Although the NSG tentatively set September 4-5 for its next meeting when it last met in Vienna on August 21-22, a handful of States are asking for more time to study the new proposal. However, with the Bush administration anxious to complete the NSG stage of the nuclear deal so that the ‘123 agreement’ with India can be handed over to Congress by September 8, Berlin is expected to announce the immediate convening of the cartel’s extraordinary plenary on Monday.

In keeping with the sensitivity of NSG members upset at the ‘premature’ leak of the draft waiver’s details last time around, American officials are anxious that the new proposal’s contents not be made public until member States have had a chance to assess the draft individually first.

In the previous meeting, the draft came under attack from several countries seeking stronger language reflecting their non-proliferation concerns. More than 50 amendments were proposed, and the U.S. undertook to evolve a new draft in consultation with India.

This time around, the U.S. and India are hoping for a smoother ride. In particular, they hope countries dissatisfied with the revised draft will settle for a compromise in which the waiver is adopted by consensus but their national concerns are reflected in a statement by the NSG chair.

Though the new draft is under wraps, the statements National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan made to the journalist Karan Thapar for CNN-IBN on Friday evening provide a glimpse into India’s stand as the draft was being finalised. In the interview, to be broadcast on Sunday, Mr. Narayanan said ways would be found around the demand for an explicit reference to nuclear testing as a condition for termination of cooperation by the NSG. “We have always made this point that testing is a word that we find difficult to adjust with ... So, we will find ways around it,” he said.

Asked about the demand by some countries for an NSG bar on the export of enrichment and reprocessing technology to India, Mr. Narayanan noted the group did not explicitly ban such exports for anybody. “Definitely, we don’t want ourselves to be singled out for this ... [If] any country does not wish to give us enrichment and reprocessing technologies and still wishes to have nuclear commerce, we’ll draw up our guidelines according to that. What we don’t want is each country’s individual predilections forming a huge package of items in the NSG exemptions.”

As for the demand for the NSG to make a periodic review of its India waiver, the NSA said this was “uncalled for.”

Mr. Narayanan indicated India had no objection to the NSG chair making a statement containing “prescriptive suggestions” so long as it did not affect the waiver. “If the Chairman is making a statement which reflects, to some extent, some of [the concerns of NSG states], may be. But as long as it does not inhibit us from what we believe is a clean and unconditional exemption,” he said.


Who believes in the unlimited reach of Daryl Kimball, may try looking for a copy of the draft at his home!

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby sivab » 31 Aug 2008 00:52

http://www.hindu.com/2008/08/31/stories ... 030100.htm

This time around, the U.S. and India are hoping for a smoother ride. In particular, they hope countries dissatisfied with the revised draft will settle for a compromise in which the waiver is adopted by consensus but their national concerns are reflected in a statement by the NSG chair.


Now you know why NSA talked about NSG chair above ...

M K Narayanan: I presume it be the Chairman's prerogative to make of what he says and what he likes but as long as they are not laid down as conditions, we have talked in terms of a clean exemption, an unconditional exemption. We have not said that there should be no whisper about what anybody wishes to say. We are not behaving like 16-year-olds and recognise that countries have problems. If the Chairman is making a statement which reflects, to some extent, some of those points, may be. But as long as it does not inhibit us from what we believe is a clean and unconditional exemption, (it’s okay).


I will hold my celebration till fat lady actually sings. But KS does seem to have a better handle on system ...

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby sanjaykumar » 31 Aug 2008 03:35

Highly recommend the Physics Today piece-take note of the breathless admiration for China's nuclear engineering. Note the distinction he makes between China's program and the third world's prgrams.

'He made nine trips to China between 1990 and 1999 as a federal analyst and as a private citizen. He met top officials, toured nuclear institutes, and compiled a detailed history of China's program.'

Incidently head of technical intelligence at Los Alamos, same facility that apparently parted with W-88 technology.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby vsunder » 31 Aug 2008 04:39

Here is an article by CAEP, Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics, which is the Chinese Los Alamos based in Chengdu. The article was in mandarin and a survey of the Indian tests. They have now put up
a translation of the original article, the original article has many references.

Indian Tests

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby NRao » 31 Aug 2008 05:05

This all seems like a huge dog and pony show. India will get what she wants from the NSG's 45 members.

Some more time to study ........................................................................ something they already know about. :)

IF they meet, it will go through. And, they will meet. Since it will be a foregone conclusion, what for I am not sure.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby enqyoob » 31 Aug 2008 06:13

And, they will meet.


Of course! Given the amount of high-priced champagne and caviar and Rooh Afza that will flow there, I would be amazed if they skip the free grub.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby RajeshA » 31 Aug 2008 06:17

narayanan wrote:
And, they will meet.


Of course! Given the amount of high-priced champagne and caviar and Rooh Afza that will flow there, I would be amazed if they skip the free grub.


I guess that was the reason, why everybody was keen on a period review of the Deal. :D

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby sivab » 31 Aug 2008 08:31

vsunder wrote:Here is an article by CAEP, Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics, which is the Chinese Los Alamos based in Chengdu. The article was in mandarin and a survey of the Indian tests. They have now put up
a translation of the original article, the original article has many references.


Indian Tests


Huh :roll:

Thats your own article from BRM, translated word for word to chinese, translated back by google.
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/I ... amana.html

It even ref.'s your own curr. sci. correspondence.
http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/dec252000/contents.htm

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby sraj » 31 Aug 2008 09:00

Even spin calls for honesty
Swapan Dasgupta in Pioneer
Outright untruths can have a short-term success but end up rebounding on the disseminator. In the run-up to last week's NSG meeting, the Government put out comforting projections of growing global unanimity around the India-US nuclear agreement. The proverbial 'high-level' sources kept reassuring the media that the first day's proceedings would see some of the smaller, pro-non-proliferation countries make proforma statements; they would meekly acquiesce the next day. The PM's former media adviser even said on TV that New Zealand would oblige India because of our strong links with the Maoris!

It all proved very fanciful. On the contrary, as it now transpires, some 50 amendments were put forward and the volume of disquiet has led to the US agreeing to prepare a fresh draft. The Indian side too has shifted the goalposts. Earlier New Delhi's emphasis was on a 'clean and unconditional' waiver. The US insisted it would be a 'clean' waiver. Now Pranab Mukherjee too has dropped the 'unconditional' tag. So, what are the possible conditionalities? Are they in consonance with the assurances the PM has made to Parliament? These are questions the media should be asking. Instead, the 'high-level' sources are being allowed to get away with assertions that are nullified by actual events.

It is understandable that officials should want to give a positive 'spin' to the NSG deliberations. If the deal goes under, Manmohan Singh will have an omelette on his face. The UPA's credibility will also go for a six. Yet, the nuclear agreement centres on an issue far more important than the political fortunes of the UPA. At stake is India's strategic programme. The country must be made to be mentally prepared for the likely outcome. The difficulties need not be exaggerated but they should not be covered up in wishful thinking. Even 'spin' demands a measure of honesty.

The Kandahar hijack was an example of the debilitating consequences of allowing wishful thinking to set the national mood. People with memories may remember the convoluted stories of the favourable Loya Jirga meet. They may remember the graphic accounts of how a section of the 'American-educated Taliban' led by the personal physician of Mullah Omar was coming to the rescue of the Indian passengers because someone's third cousin once had an Indian room-mate. After nine years, some of the details may have gone hazy, but the farcical 'spin' was a factor behind the popular backlash after three terrorists were exchanged for the passengers. In trying to manufacture good news, the NDA Government shot itself in the foot.

There is a difference between 'spin' and propaganda. It's a difference that Campbell knew and which our drumbeaters are blissfully unaware of.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby ramana » 31 Aug 2008 09:10

What's Chinese for wordsmithing? Essentially they translated the BRM article into Chinese and now its back in English!

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby John Snow » 31 Aug 2008 09:23

As usual they are excellent at reverse engineering.

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby archan » 31 Aug 2008 09:32

Question: The Iran thread has posts from renukb that show the Ruskies are threatening big time of upping the ante against Unkil in response to the proposed NATO membership of Georgia/Ukraine. If their relations are so bad, why are they still in the unkil-founded NSG? are there chances that they may leave NSG anytime soon? if yes, and supposing that the N-deal does not go through, what are the prospects of a Indo-Russian N-deal? Do the Ruskies have what the yindoos want?

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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Postby ramana » 31 Aug 2008 09:38

All these brave assurances form GOI folks could mean something else has been crossed. It migth not be in those red lines. So till we see the actual text need to wait.


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