India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

[RajeshA]

India sees red as China voices n-deal concerns by Indrani Bagchi: TOI

In a clear sign of the growing challenge, China has indicated to the NSG that it would make its “concerns” regarding the Indian nuclear deal clear at the next meeting. As a precursor, China’s top government mouthpiece, People’s Daily, trashed the deal on Monday, saying it was a “blow to the international non-proliferation regime”.

There are indications that the NSG might defer decision on the India waiver yet again and new dates of September 11-12 are already doing the rounds. Of course, it would then not be possible to move the deal into the US Congress in time and might need some urgent fiddling with the Congressional rules and calendar.

Countries like Japan continue to insist on something in the text that automatically cuts off cooperation with India if it conducts another nuclear test. That would be a “killer” amendment as far as India is concerned.

The Nuclear Deal is pulled into the quicksands, and that is where it will stay for a very very very long time. In the meantime, politics in Asia can be realigned again.

Japan's Aso Indicates Willingness to Run for Party Leadership: Kyodo

Taro Aso, secretary general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, indicated early Tuesday his willingness to run in the party's expected presidential election.

Too bad Taro Aso is not already in driver's seat. Perhaps Uma Bharti would be a close analogy. China will again start seeing red, when he becomes PM, I mean more red than when Junichiro Koizumi was PM. Some of his many quotes from Wikipedia:

Mainichi Daily News reported that on March 9, 2006 he referred to Taiwan as a "law-abiding country", which drew strong protest from Beijing, which considers the island a part of China.[14] His implication that Taiwan is an independent nation contradicts the agreement made between Japan and China in 1972 (the Joint Communique of the Government of Japan and the Government of the People's Republic of China) that the Beijing rather than Taipei government be considered the sole legal government of China and that Taiwan be considered "an inalienable part of the territory of the People's Republic of China."

On December 21, 2005, he said China was "a neighbour with one billion people equipped with nuclear bombs and has expanded its military outlays by double digits for 17 years in a row, and it is unclear as to what this is being used for. It is beginning to be a considerable threat."[15] On January 28, 2006, he called for the emperor to visit the controversial Yasukuni shrine. He later backtracked on the comment, but stated that he hoped such a visit would be possible in the future.

Too bad the stars in Japan and Vienna are not aligned.

[Sanjay M]

Obviously Aso would be assuming power quite soon, since they can't be in a vacuum for long. I think he's also capable of retaining power for longer, and even winning the next elections in 2009.

Aso is a more bolder type of leader, so I don't see why he won't give us more support on NSG waiver. He understands that Japan has to break out of the strategic box it's in, otherwise it will be dragged down and ultimately even drowned.

India, with its large market potential, can break Japan from its total dependency upon the United States. No man is an island, no nation can be an island.

In the long run, I'd like to see India, Russia and South America banding together, but Japan could be a very important addition too, if they're able to break away from their Western yoke.

[Suppiah]

For those of you believing that Russia can replace US and supply us nuke reactors - fact is Putin politely refused to do so (beyond Koodankulam which slipped through the loophole as it was signed earlier to tightening of sanctions) and only said NSG should lift sanctions on India and he would support that. This was way back in 2003.

Obviously Russia lacked the diplomatic muscle to push NSG plus lacked the will to break ranks at least not for India, for whatever reasons. It may be because helping India is not spiting west hard enough whereas supplying to Iran is. That's why Vajpayee regime started approaching Uncle Sam knowing if someone can do it, he can. MMS & Co. followed it through.

Even for an existing safeguarded reactor Tarapur, we had to go through fire-loops to find fuel even tapping it from China! Russia supplied for a while but that too ran into objections.

[Neshant]

you can be sure that US had to pay russia off in some way for that.

they must be tired of these payoffs, hence they want this deal.

[enqyoob]

Somehow I get the feeling that Putin Sep. 2008 is not Putin 2003. Nuking the NSG, which is essentially a NATO-usurped cartel, would probably be a great pleasure for Putin, as he does not have a whole lot to lose in western "goodwill" now.

He has bluntly declared the intention to give Syria a SAM system that would put the whole Israeli air defence suppression strategies out of commission. He just tested a Topol ICBM that he says will defeat Dubya's NMD. I don't think he is going to be too shy about blowing up the NSG.

Interesting week. My prediction is that US-India will prevail essentially unscathed. But if not, well... the 126 fighter deal goes to Russia, and a lot of other things will change in short order.

[Gerard]

Revised draft doesn't impress NSG members

[Gerard]

Looks like even being an NSG member and a NWS doesn't get you a guaranteed supply....
Australia threatens to stop Russia uranium sales

[John Snow]

Looks like even being an NSG member and a NWS doesn't get you a guaranteed supply....
Australia threatens to stop Russia uranium sales

Not a problem Kazakhastan is second largest U2 source

[enqyoob]

So much for "assured fuel supply" from the 'roos.

[Sanjay M]

Somehow I get the feeling that Putin Sep. 2008 is not Putin 2003. Nuking the NSG, which is essentially a NATO-usurped cartel, would probably be a great pleasure for Putin, as he does not have a whole lot to lose in western "goodwill" now.

He has bluntly declared the intention to give Syria a SAM system that would put the whole Israeli air defence suppression strategies out of commission. He just tested a Topol ICBM that he says will defeat Dubya's NMD. I don't think he is going to be too shy about blowing up the NSG.

Interesting week. My prediction is that US-India will prevail essentially unscathed. But if not, well... the 126 fighter deal goes to Russia, and a lot of other things will change in short order.

I agree, Putin the nationalist will not be so sedate and easygoing as his gerontocratic politburo forefathers. It's like the difference between Ahmedinejad and those grey-bearded Ayatollah clerical councils.

I don't think he's going to bust up NSG and blindly burn all bridges with the West, which buys much of his oil. He's just giving the warning shots, and communicating his expectations. At the same time he'll likely be stepping up political interference in the adjacent neighboring East European states, not necessarily even by choice, but because they're now increasingly agitating against him.

I'm glad the Germans have kept to a more sober, restrained course of action. Although I find Merkel to still be overly biased towards Moscow, compared to her predecessors. Hopefully the slowing German economy and associated socio-economic stresses will bring a more Left-oriented govt back to power. Schroeder's successors will likely be more understanding than Merkel towards Moscow.

Right now, it seems like China is the main party who most badly needs NSG (in order to block India's rise). Would Putin be willing to antagonize China over this issue? It's not worth it to him.

Right now, I think that if anybody's going to be busting up NSG, it would be Uncle Sam. And this is only until Obama gets elected, because once he's there he'll be piously preaching the virtues of his Wilsonian institutions, including NSG, NPT, CTBT, etc. And guys whispering in his ear like Brzezinski will be pushing that line to the hilt.

[Sanjay M]

Looks like even being an NSG member and a NWS doesn't get you a guaranteed supply....
Australia threatens to stop Russia uranium sales

Hah, like the Canadians, the Aussies sure do like to talk/punch above their weight. Just as it's hard to imagine how Canada will defend its newly melted/opened northern frontiers against Russian encroachment, I'm finding it hard to imagine what the Aussies are going to do when the expanding Chinese navy comes sailing through their waters. I really want to be there to see the look on their faces when it happens, though.

[NRao]

Hah, like the Canadians, the Aussies sure do like to talk/punch above their weight. Just as it's hard to imagine how Canada will defend its newly melted/opened northern frontiers against Russian encroachment, I'm finding it hard to imagine what the Aussies are going to do when the expanding Chinese navy comes sailing through their waters. I really want to be there to see the look on their faces when it happens, though.

Out source it too!!

Kidding aside, there are elements that expect India to balance just such an act on the part of our friends Chicom.

Also, I do expect NSG and the US to poke their noses in Kashmir - Kashmir for Uranium barter.

No matter what anyone says, these deals will change the way all these countries impose their views on FP. I think India should do the same .................... just do not see any value in keeping cool for too long.

[Pulikeshi]

India deal may be done in by a six pack

Paul Nelson, a fellow of the American Nuclear Society and Professor Emeritus at Texas A&M
University, wrote in an online commentary the six states leading the opposition are not well qualified to sit in judgment of India's need to pursue its stated policy of "maintaining a minimum credible nuclear deterrence." Further, he said, they don't have India's need for nuclear energy to power the civilian economy. In an email to me Nelson wrote,

If agreement doesn't go through, then one of two things will happen, both of which are worse for disarmament/proliferation than the "deal" would be:

Russia, probably followed by France, will ignore the voluntary NSG, and cut civil nuclear deals with India, such as the plants the Russians are on the verge of completing at Kudankulam, in far south India. In this case Indian development of civil nuclear energy will proceed, but without any proliferation-ameliorating influence from the US.

No such deal will be cut, in which case India's civil program will be deep-sixed, and it will have no use for its indigenous nuclear capability except for weapons applications.

* * *

Heaven will fall - all Trishanku has to do is trudge along blissfully!
Me what worry!

[Suppiah]

Russia itself is on the queue for getting nuke technology and material from US - a deal that is in doubt because of events in Georgia. Russians said that deal should go ahead anyway because 'it benefits both', which essentially means they are the ones that benefit. In matters such as Iran/Syria where US is the beneficiary, they are more than happy to scrap cooperation.

This deal is US led and the failure at NSG if that happens, is GWB's personal failure. It will also be a failure of Indian diplomacy and an unfortunate reflection of the fact that we lack clout to hit various nations' pocketbook and squeeze their b..s, like China does. I doubt if Russians would use that as an excuse to break the NSG, unless they are guaranteed monopoly on Indian business which we can't. US will never break NSG and give open ended license to China and Russia to ship everything to every terrorist in ME.

The deal will simply fade away from newspaper headlines as both India and US get busy with elections. Perhaps one day we will look back and be happy that it did fail because at the very least it exposed the commies and their paymasters plus given us kick in the butt to get going on reforms and various other economic and strategic action items faster.

[pradeepe]

India deal may be done in by a six pack
If agreement doesn't go through, then one of two things will happen, both of which are worse for disarmament/proliferation than the "deal" would be:

Very nice analogies Pulikeshi ji

Again, these pack rats are Panda's goons. Every passing day makes it more obvious. If the deal goes through, unless China ends up as a supplier of any nuke technology, which is possible but unlikely, they have all the right reasons to make this fail.

While we are well aware of the China being inimical to Indian growth, the other reason IMHO has roots in the statement above by the good aggie professor. I think China wants the NSG to crumble and also the nuke proliferation story across the world to be muddled.

See most folks know of China's record in the proliferation mess. Its like the neghborhood goon who has pissed into the community pool. He would definitely like to have the pool muddled as much as possible for obvious reasons. As for the backlash of making the pool useless even for themselves, a poor analogy to making the world dangerous for themselves, I think Panda's pain and or in this case stench bearing capabilities are a lot higher than the current powers that it would like to take down. Thats the ace it holds.

[amit]

N-deal: Bush to call up NSG nations

[Singha]

we all know n-power is very capex intensive and unlikely to meet our needs the way that
pithead and coastal UMPPs using uncontroversial coal can.

since the deal is practically dead now, masha-allah its time for a GOI group of nuclear babus
to prepare and publicize the conversion of all existing civilian and nuclear plants into a purely
classified weapons related activity. sdre injun tech needs all these reactors to stockpile
weapons because we are not massa, our tech is not efficient.

secondly, a schedule needs to be drawn up strictly and adhered to for weapons testing in
the next 2 yrs. we can start with proving our key 150-250KT designs for Agni series and
cultinate in bigger 500kt device for SLBM future use and finally a 1MT device purely for psyops
value.

pokhran range to be expanded and all villagers relocated and given land and cows in far more
fertile areas with govt jobs for 10 generations and 20L cash spot bonus.

this is purely engineering execution - not the waffle waffle and intrigue of diplomacy that
has run its course.

this we must do.

[Victor]

A deal failure will never be admitted as "GWB's failure" or USA's failure in any way, shape or form. Just as it was entirely India's fault (not even China's even though they said exactly what we did) that the WTO talks failed, it will be entirely India's fault that the nuke deal failed and the cause will be put down to India's intransigence (just like in WTO).

However, this is entirely speculation yet. To add to the downsides (for the P-5 & NSG) in Pulikeshi's post above should the deal not go through, there is the developing integration between the West and India that will take a hit with pain for both sides over the long term. Short story--they need us as much as we need them.

[RajeshA]

Second NSG meet is ‘last chance’ for nuclear deal by Siddharth Varadarajan: Hindu

New Delhi: As members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group slowly digest the revised American proposal to grant India a waiver from the cartel’s export guidelines, Indian officials say this week’s scheduled NSG meeting will be decisive in sealing the fate of the nuclear deal with the United States one way or another.

“Both the U.S. and India are down to the wire in this,” one official told The Hindu. “For us in terms of substance, and for the Americans in terms of time.” While declining to provide any details about the draft out of deference to the NSG’s rules of confidentiality, Indian officials say the new text represents a compromise. “A genuine attempt has been made to deal with the concerns raised” the last time the 45-nation suppliers club met in Vienna on August 21-22, said an official. The changes are not cosmetic, as some nonproliferationists have charged, but the overall package is consistent with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s assurances to Parliament, the officials insist. However, there is absolutely no room for India to cut any more slack, they say. “In terms of substance, this is it as far as we are concerned.”

Though the U.S. Congress has the ability to waive the mandatory 30-day period during which the ‘123 agreement’ must lie before it before being considered for approval, Indian officials say the problem for Washington is not how to manage Capitol Hill but the NSG itself. “If you can’t solve this the second time around, the dynamics of the process will completely change.”

With the danger of the entire deal unravelling, a third plenary is likely to be a non-starter for the Americans, too.

On their part, well-placed German officials told this reporter a third meeting cannot be ruled out at this stage since several countries have told Germany — this year’s chairman of the NSG — that they have not had enough time to study the new text. But even if things were to go into a third meeting, it would have to be more for getting political sanction for a text that is broadly cleared now rather than for making further changes in the draft, the officials conceded.

Reacting cautiously to media reports of a compromise formula wherein the overall non-proliferation concerns of NSG members are embodied in a statement by the chair, a diplomat from one of the European countries with strong objections last time around told The Hindu that any proposal would have to be studied first. “We have not yet seen a draft of a Chair’s Statement. I think it would be fair to say, though, that we would prefer conditionality to form part of the formal decision to exempt India from the standard NSG requirements.” Diplomatic sources from another European country said the new draft did not address all of their concerns but that consultations with “like-minded nations” were on to see whether the formal airing of these concerns through a statement could provide a way out.

Asked about media reports from Vienna quoting unnamed diplomats as predicting deadlock at the NSG again, American diplomats said efforts were under way to allay apprehensions at the “political” rather than “official” level.

Usually the Europeans are known to be able to reach some sort of agreement easily, except when it is an agreement, which has nothing to do with their pocket-books, or does not affect the lives of their citizens, and where it is possible to play holier than thou. The European Market and Common Security in fact has taken away any fear of reprisal. Those countries whose major markets are within the Common European Market itself, e.g. Austria, one can hardly tempt with any sops either. As such outposts of Insignificance Personified punch far over their weights. I personally would welcome sidelining these mice in the international fora, like NSG.

[snag]

I come to the forum after many years all hot under the collar and bristling with indignation - started smiling when I read the current thread. You guys left me speechless as every aspect of my indignation was covered in the first few posts.

[amit]

Paul Nelson's comment:

Russia, probably followed by France, will ignore the voluntary NSG, and cut civil nuclear deals with India, such as the plants the Russians are on the verge of completing at Kudankulam, in far south India. In this case Indian development of civil nuclear energy will proceed, but without any proliferation-ameliorating influence from the US.

Explains why it would be foolish to immediately go for testing once (and if) the NSG deal falls thru.

Either way NSG is doomed to break up after this. I don't see the French and the Russians holding back from a potential gold pot worth US$100 billion, especially with the US hobbled by Hyde and Canada and Japan by sanctimonious bullshit.

A test would just force these two to close ranks with everyone else, which would be a pity.

One point, the People's Daily commentary is very intriguing not for the content but for the timing. China kept quiet before the Aug meeting, probably knowing that it would not be able to reach a conclusion.

I would guess that the revised draft is more likely to get support, especially with Bush taking it to the "political" level. And hence China plays its last card - or maybe not last, it could be that card will be played during the meeting itself?

There's another point to consider.

How would the holier than thou Helen Clarke and Ursula Plassnik like the idea of China sharing the same platform with them to mouth non-proliferation platitudes to India? That could come back to haunt them later as China's proliferation record comes under increasing scrutiny?

Or may be not. Sanctimonious folks can have remarkably thick skins.

My gut feeling is NSG will pass this one, if only to buy a few more years time for itself.

[amit]

Talking about Ursula Plassnik, size does matter doesn't it?

Please note the position of her legs! Splayed legs get an entire new meaning



I wonder if the Austrian President Heinz Fischer, feels aha rather uncomfortable in her presence?

[Singha]

6'6" panzerfrau.

[Nitesh]

People who are opposing the deal is steadily increasing in numbers, seems like this deal is not getting through

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Arms ... 435321.cms

[amit]

People who are opposing the deal is steadily increasing in numbers, seems like this deal is not getting through

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Arms ... 435321.cms

Boss if you are going to come to a conclusion after reading what Ayatollah Kimball says then what can one say?

From your link:

"More than just six states are opposed to a 'Clean' or 'Unconditional' waiver. It has been widely reported that a group of six like-minded states (Austria, Ireland, New Zealand, Netherlands, Norway, and Switzerland) have put forward proposals for restrictions, conditions, and a review mechanism for nuclear trade with India, but the group of states backing these ideas is actually far larger, probably around 15 total," Kimball maintained.

"These include Japan, several other northern European states, and possibly China. The commentary yesterday in China's official People's Daily calls the India deal a "major blow" to non-proliferation, raising possibility that China is unhappy with the proposed US waiver for India," he added.

It's nice to note that the Ayatollah is so gratified that his true master has finally spoken via the People's Daily commentary. Must be feeling much more gunge ho and energised.

However, that doesn't mean we need to take him seriously, does it?

[RajeshA]

Rajesh, the right response to show our displeasure may be something like this:

1. Announce deal with Russia for 4 more reactors at Koodamkulam (that leaves only 36 more under what would have been the Civilian Nuke Deal)

2. Announce massive plan for investment in solar, wind and hydroelectric power, but announce formation of the Greater Asia Renewables Group (GARG), with membership limited to those nations which will conclude bilateral civilian nuclear energy and technology cooperation agreements with India under the terms of the IAEA agreement already formulated, but modified to reflect the terms applicable to a Nuclear Weapon State (like, see China IAEA agreement).

IOW, any nation that does not agree gets cut out of all energy-related contracts with India, period. No turbines, no instruments, no solar cells, no wind turbine blade, no nothing. The US may or may not join, since the US at least claims to have tried to bring about an improvement, depending on what the WHOTUS believes the COTUS will agree.

This way, Hyde becomes moot, the NSG should be ignored and allowed to collapse under the weight of its own baggage, and India should use those hajaar Billions of $$ that would have been spent on nuke energy, on renewables. Meanwhile, India will also freely trade nuclear materials with anyone India pleases to trade with - Lok Sabha should pass such a law right away.

3. Then start concluding bilateral agreements, as a weapon power, but completely independent of the NSG. At this point I think there will be more takers - first Russia, then maybe CHINA... then the rest will fall in place swiftly. Israel, Brazil, Venezuela, Vietnam.

Are they going to put "sanctions" on India for developing Renewable energy? Or for trading nuclear-related components outside the NPT? On what basis?

So now the issue becomes whether these nations want to deny nuclear cooperation to India so badly that they are willing to forego a fast-paced, lucrative development in Renewable Energy in the second decade of the 21st century.

Narayanan Ji,

I am a huuuge supporter of Renewables, so I would not really like to sound critical of your proposals here. I think the proposal is definitely creative. However as is tradition, every well-meant proposal first needs to be criticized and taken apart, because only a proposal which can hold up to rape and abuse, can make it to the finishing line and discussion table. We Indians are like that onlee, you know. So I will try to do a little beta testing here.

The first criticism of any proposal sounds like, "There is nothing new in this, Yaar. Waatt a waste of time!". I'll break with this convention and state, that I do find much new in what you propose.

There are certain doubts:
1. You are saying we get our safeguards agreement with IAEA modified to better reflect us as a state with nuclear weapons. In fact the safeguards agreement should be similar to the ones NWSs have. For that we need a majority of 17 in the BoG. Our friends in the BoG will of course support us. However the names of these friends is a closely guarded state secret.

2. On the one hand, you call it Greater Asia group, on the other, they are all bound to nuclear deal with India. Country-specific rules do not enhance credence of a multilateral organization.

3. When we talk of Renewables, big projects are usually Hydel Power Stations, where the biggest investment is related to dam construction, which though challenging, is not really a question of high-tech. There are Indian Companies, which are up to the task. Giving foreign companies the contracts for these dams, would only be harmful to the local suppliers, especially as in the end, only a few Hydel Projects really get off the ground, and most remain bogged down due to concerns for environment and displacement of people. Wind Farms would probably be decided by State Govts, and they will go through the usual tender system. Solar Energy is used locally at the point of consumption. What I am saying is, it is an open market. Big projects will be far between. No real expensive high-tech is required. We have a local industry to think about. The inducements to foreign countries are minimal. That is my intuition. I may be overlooking something.

4. It will not be the Central Govt. which will allot huge projects to some contractor, but would rather make money available to State Govts to plan their own projects or initiate their own programs of subventions for solar energy, etc. They will again get some local contractor or even foreign to undertake the project. The local companies might buy some components from abroad. I don't see any form of cartel being established here.

5. Russia could undertake those extra Koodamkulam projects, but would it be ready to go further than that. Why would any country want to go against the NSG consensus? We have nuclear station requirements, which no country is willing to fulfill. The question remains, does it pay for any country to go against NSG just for Indian nuclear contracts. This can happen only if that country (Russia) develops a new strategic outlook on its own and is in a position to withstand NSG pressure and blackmail. Putin has been unwilling to push India's case at the NSG and has often claimed powerlessness unless NSG changes its mind.

6. I did not understand how and for what Russia, China, Israel, Brazil, Venezuela, Vietnam will fall in place. If it is recognizing us as a nuclear weapons power, de-facto we are already one, and every body knows that. That is not the issue. The issue is the sanctions on nuclear and dual-use tech, and nuclear fuel for India by the major suppliers.

IMO, The Renewables Project does not ensure anything near to critical mass of temptations for NSG to break ranks.

However Narayanan Ji,
plz don't let my points of criticism discourage you. These are noble and creative ideas on your part.
JMTs

[amit]

6'6" panzerfrau.

Boss very close!

She's 6' 3"

[RajeshA]

Considering that there are at least 6 holdouts at the NSG, perhaps one should try a different tack.

Here some ideas:

1. How about having some respected Indian advocating in some journal, that some obscure group (ArmsControl.co.in ) taking Switzerland and Netherlands to International Court of Justice in the Hague for Collusion and Complicity in Nuclear Proliferation and Gross-Negligence in their Non-Proliferation commitments with regard to A.Q. Khan.

2. Perhaps some Indian philanthropist can finance some chair in Auckland University on the subject of History of Chinese Nuclear Proliferation and Criminal Kiwi Silence, with Moolah to pay for Full-page Newspaper Ads promoting their Research, and talks at other venues.

3. Take Austria to court. They should pay compensation to the next of kin of all those Indian soldiers who were killed in the World Wars in Europe.

[Nitesh]

Boss if you are going to come to a conclusion after reading what Ayatollah Kimball says then what can one say?

amit , I am not coming to any conclusion, that the deal is dead yeah my wording were wrong sorry for that. I meant to say that too many people are coming up against it making it all the more difficult to get the deal through.

[amit]

Boss if you are going to come to a conclusion after reading what Ayatollah Kimball says then what can one say?

amit , I am not coming to any conclusion, that the deal is dead yeah my wording were wrong sorry for that. I meant to say that too many people are coming up against it making it all the more difficult to get the deal through.

Nitesh,

No one new has come out against the deal. It's all the usual suspects. On the other hand folks who could have been difficult like Canada, Australia and Japan have all fallen in line after doing their usual hyperventilating about proliferation blah, blah.

As of this point, I'm pretty optimistic of the deal sailing through.

However, I'm a bit worried as to what language the GoI has agreed to in the revised draft. Unlike the previous one we've not had a chance to see it. The saving grace is far too many GoI representative have harped on the red lines to backtrack.

Let's see what transpires.

JMT

[Lalmohan]

the kiwis and irish will be 'gently persuaded' by unkil to sort themselves out after they've done their public hyperventilating. much of their posturing will be for domestic consumption. besides they have no nuclear industry lobby to influence matters. anyone who stands to gain financially from the agreement is already signed up

unkil will get mrca deal
france will get nuke reactor deal
aussies will get fuel deal (and ban symmonds )
russkies will get more T90 orders

babus have lots of %ages to look forward to

every one will make money, chai biskoot all round

[amit]

US Congress likely to hold lame duck session for N-deal

Things seem to point towards endgame on Friday.

[amit]

every one will make money, chai biskoot all round

Indian babudom's chai biskoot session(s) is the world's most deadly weapon of mass destruction.

[RajeshA]

In the end this whole Nautanki in the NSG could just be another form of communication. The US sidelined many Chelas during the Iraq War. After all, even small countries have big egos. Everybody wants to be seen in the world, somehow playing a crucial role in matters of War and Peace.

So possibly countries like Switzerland, Ireland, Norway, Netherlands, Austria, New Zealand just want to be taken seriously for a change, do diplomatic tango in big important conferences, and be invited to the White House for pictures with Dubya.

That's all!

[RajeshA]

Not only through Think-Tank articles, China has started making official noises as well.

China hopes for balance in India nuclear deal: AP

It is however better not to read too much into it, as of now.

[enqyoob]

Do u know what "Fire Hydrant Maneuver" means?

Much used in Ice Figure-Skating (where u look at the figures of the skaters) and Ice Dancing.

[Philip]

China wants India always to be treated as a subordinate nation by comparison,The "inferiority complex" of the smaller nations can only be assuaged by Uncle Sam's soothing and comforting words and largesse.They are crying out for more attention like small children.At this point in time,with Russia so angry at the US/NATO perfidy over Georgia,that they are in a real spoiling mood diplomatically and if we aks them,they will be most willing to sell us any amount of reactors and fuel.France will quickly follow,not wanting to lose a good deal.However,MMS's unswerving loyalty to the lame duck US president means that we will look elsewhere only if and when we are kicked in the teeth.It all depends upon how much the US is willing to turn the screw on the unwilling NSG members,for as Karat says,the deal is much more than just N-fuel and technology,it is a defence deal first and foremost,integrating India into the US fold and strategy and the US stands to lose huge defence contracts already agreed upon in secret.Flight Intl. has an article about the impending MMRCA deal and the prediction that Tata's and its foreign collaborators,Boeing and Israeli companies will elbow out some PSUs in major contracts.HAL has a full order book too with ongoing orders.

[enqyoob]

There is a huge difference between the way nations and the way they vote when it comes time to vote.

The only interesting thing remaining to see in the NSG is whether, and at what point, the US forces a vote on something acceptable to India. Since the NSG is the US' creation, India's role now is simply as a spectator to see just how far the US influence extends, and just how fair the NSG is. I am assuming that the GOI is NOT going to cut any more slack because there is none to cut and still survive.

Just keep good notes on all the pronouncements by the various entities - the post-Orympics Chinese noise vs. the Ple-Orympics cooing, is quite a study in Chinese leriabirity and integlity. They have validated all the worst stereotypes of the Chinese and Commies in general.

It's interesting to note, however, that there is not a single statement by an actual national representative from the "Six-pack" or the PRC in recent days on this - it's all poo-throwing by their puppet media or the DDM or "unnamed western diplomats" meaning the guy who picks up cans for recycling at their embassies, or their "town drunks".

My prediction is still that come Friday, the US will be gloating over a Great Diplomatic Victory and the Unanimous Consensus of the Allies as reflected by the NSG. I hope the Indians are too.
So it's still good sense to shut up and not jump up and down demanding this or that self-defeating rush into irreversible damage.


There will no doubt be a lot of "strong messages" that India should sign this BT and that PT and some other CT. That's just chimpanzees thumping their chests to convey their power, or dogs barking at the postman.

[Lalmohan]

I am with N on this, the US will ensure that the vote is a done deal - it will be a foreign policy capstone for Bush. The senate's endorsement cannot be far behind. The smaller countries need a bit of air time to demonstrate their morals and integrity to everyone and then it will be business as usual

[Victor]

If the deal is sewn up and all of this hyperventilating is just for show, then it makes sense for India to officially slap the NSG by openly criticizing the pot's calling the kettle black and fingering the most egregious proliferators directly. India already has those that matter on its side and has nothing to lose by ripping the hypocritical facade off and deflating the sanctimonious windbags in public, specially China.