India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

RajeshA
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2008 20:00

ShauryaT wrote:Am I the only one here, who feels that the new draft has found a way to apply the Hyde act to the NSG exemption?


The only thing, which was stopping it from being applied, was that any decision after all the consultations had to be taken by consensus, including a decision on sanctions after a nuclear test by India, and there wouldn't be any automatic sanctions. Secondly, the word testing was not used in the draft specifically, but rather inferred from a referenced paragraph 16 of the NSG Guidelines.

The Pipsqueak are still not happy, and USA is willing to give them even more Hashish, for an all-round happy experience, instead of showing them the big fat stick.

These F**** Pipsqueak are happy with this Consensus Mechanism, which allows them to exercise so much power at the NSG right now to decide on the India-specific Waiver, but would not accept the same Consensus Mechanism to be applied in case India does nuclear testing.

It is worse than the NAZIS, who came to power through democratic means but then decided to throw democracy overboard.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2008 20:05

Mulford meets Narayanan, Kakodkar: PTI

As the US disclosures on the nuclear deal triggered a political storm, American Ambassador David C Mulford today met National Security Advisor M K Narayanan and other officials in the Prime Minister's Office and is understood to have discussed the issue.
Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Anil Kakodkar was also present during the meeting between Narayanan and Mulford, and the US envoy is believed to have told them that the details in the document which triggered the controversy had already been shared with India.

The US Department of State disclosures that it will stop fuel supplies and other nuclear cooperation if India conducts a nuclear test set off a controversy with opposition BJP and the Left parties launching a strident attack on the UPA government.

Mulford had sought to down play the disclosures made in the State Department document saying there was nothing new in it which has not been shared with India or the US Congress.

"This letter contains no new conditions and there is no data in this letter which has not already been shared in an open and transparent way with members of the Congress and with the Government of India," he said.

In controversial disclosures, the US has made it clear that it will stop fuel supplies and other nuclear cooperation if India conducts a nuclear test.

The US position, which appears at variance with New Delhi's interpretation of some key clauses of Indo-US nuclear deal, was made public just before the two-day meeting of the 45-nation NSG which will consider a waiver that will enable India do nuclear commerce.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2008 20:10

Arun_S wrote:Why the FUD?

If the letter is spoof, it is wish come true from any Govt for it can flat out state its reservation about its authenticity; If the letter is spoof, MMSingh did not have to call urgent cabinet meeting, call ask Kakodkar to fly in, or INC spokes person Anand Sharma to give defensive statement in which it acknowledges that the letter does not say anything that was not known earlier. and to Muddle-ford (sic) to issue a statement that Anand Sharma derived his statement from? So look forward to your next statement speculating all these news items are also forgery and imagination of a dozen Indian press-walla.

Imagining as false, unpleasant aspect of reality is a human nature, and beginning of cognitive dissonance .. .. . .


Arun, two different things. I believe you mixed up between

1. The Revised Draft of NSG Waiver put up on the Arms Control Website, and
2. The letter disclosed by Howard Berman on the House Foreign Affairs Committee Website.

The hustle bustle in Delhi, to which you refer to, was because of the second one, but you are inferring to a discussion on the first one.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 04 Sep 2008 20:14

RajeshA: Thanks. I deleted the post.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 04 Sep 2008 20:17

BJP slams PM on N-deal, plans privilege motion

CNN-IBN
Thu, Sep 04, 2008 at 12:13,
New Delhi: A day after a secret letter from the United States of America's State Department revealed how it plans to terminate the Indo-US nuclear deal if India conducts a nuclear test, the BJP has slammed the UPA Government for 'misleading' the country.

BJP leader Yashwant Sinha has asked for a Parliament session to be called immediately to move breach of privilege motion against Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for "misleading" the two Houses on the nuclear deal.

“BJP demands that there should be a session of Parliament within the shortest possible time. Call a session after giving a notice of one week so that we are enabled to move a breach of privilege notice against the Prime Minister and his government,” Sinha said while addressing a press conference in New Delhi on Thursday.

Sinha also demanded that the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance Government quit immediately on the nuclear deal issue.

“We demand that this government has no business to continue in office and that they should leave immediately. If they do so then there is no need of a Parliament session but if they don't do so then a parliament session should be immediately called for because this is a very, very serious issue. This is no ordinary communication. This is a communication from the responsible official of the Bush administration to the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. We cannot ignore the US Congress in any matter. It will be a fatal mistake on our part to ignore the views and the opinion of the US congress because ultimately what will prevail is the view of the Congress and not the view of the administration,” he said.

The BJP also charged Manmohan Singh of misleading the nation and for not presenting all the details of the nuclear deal before the nation.

“This document says the 123 Agreement is rooted in the Hyde Act. It derives itself from the Hyde Act and it is in complete conformity with the Hyde Act. So Hyde Act is not only relevant but it is binding on the 123 Agreement. If it is binding on the 123 Agreement then it is binding on us. India cannot escape the rigours of the Hyde Act,” Sinha explained.

The BJP leader, who held the portfolios of the Finance Ministry and the External Affaisr Ministry in the National Democratic Alliance Government, also said, “This letter was written nine months ago to Tom Lantos who was the Chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives. In February he died and then Howard Berman become the Chairperson. Some months back Bush administration has asked the US Congress not to make public any correspondence between India and US related to the nuclear deal.”

“At the time we smelt that something was wrong. Now it is clear that the Bush administration wanted to keep this letter confidential. If this 26-page letter had been made public before July 26, 2008 (the day of the trust vote) then the Manmohan Singh Government would not have survived. We have serious objections to this as it is not the role of the US to save a government in India or to make sure that it falls. This is India's internal matter. This letter should have been made public in a transparent way,” he added.

The Left, too, is slamming the Manmohan Singh Government, saying it has gone back on its promise.

“The letter clearly shows that this act is deeply in accordance with the Hyde Act and the Manmohan Singh Government has clearly practiced a deceit on the people. This deal will clearly compromise with the Indian sovereign autonomy and will sacrifice the sovereignty of the nation," Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) Politburo member Brinda Karat said.

CPI-M General Secretary Prakash Karat said, "This government is cheating the people of India on the nuclear deal issue. We knew this three months back."

The State Department letter has confirmed that if India tested a nuclear device all nuclear trade with New Delhi would be immediately terminated.

The nine-month old letter was published in the Washington Post on Wednesday and was made public by influential Congressman and Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee Howard Berman.

The letter covers 45 highly technical questions and was never made public apparently because it could have toppled the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance Government.

Berman has released State Department's answers to 45 questions on the deal, which indicate clearly differing perceptions on key issues between New Delhi and Washington.

The questions were submitted to the State Department by Lantos in October 2007 and answers were sent on January 16, 2008.


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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 04 Sep 2008 20:36

MMS's silence, lack of transparency, (and perhaps even his confidence in Uncle) is coming back to bite him. Damned it you do, damned if you don't.

Tashkent all over again?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2008 20:38

US reports 'steady progress' at NSG; Some seek changes in draft: PTI

Vienna (PTI): The US on Thursday said "steady progress" was being made to rope in NSG members to end India's nuclear isolation as some countries insisted on inclusion of a specific commitment in the draft waiver for stopping nuclear cooperation if New Delhi conducts an atomic test.

Raising their concerns at the two-day Nuclear Suppliers Group's meeting here, some countries felt India could use the NSG exemption to further its military nuclear programme with suggestions being made for changes even in the revised draft waiver placed by the US before the 45-nation cartel.

A number of countries like New Zealand, Austria, Norway, Ireland, The Netherlands and Switzerland were not satisfied with the present draft even as the US pushed for a consensus by projecting the waiver as a "historic opportunity" to bring the largest democracy and one of the biggest economies into the global nuclear mainstream.

The first day of the crucial meeting saw sceptic countries demand a commitment in the draft that nuclear cooperation will end if India conducts a nuclear test and favoured denial of enrichment and reprocessing rights to New Delhi.

"The US believes firmly that the steps we are considering for India will strengthen non-proliferation and help to welcome one of the world's largest economies and biggest democracies more fully into the global fold," American Undersecretary of State William Burns told reporters on the sidelines of the meeting.

"I believe we are making steady progress in this process and we will continue to make progress," he said.

The US official described the discussions as "constructive and clearly aimed at reaching an early consensus."

A number of countries raised "important questions that need to be addressed," Burns said.

Underlining that there was a "historic opportunity" to end India's three decades of isolation in the nuclear field, he said "that opportunity warrants extraordinary efforts we are making."

He said the US is determined to continue to do "all we can by working with NSG partners and India to realise that opportunity."

Two sessions of the meeting were held today with a big four-hour break during which the diplomats are believed to have consulted their respective governments over the draft.

The revised draft was prepared by the US in consultation with India after at least 15 countries sought amendments in the original text during the last NSG meeting on August 21-22.

"There are concerns about (nuclear) testing," said a European diplomat who attended the first day of the two-day meeting.

"The reprocessing facility is not available to even some countries which have signed the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty then why should the exemption be made for India which is not a signatory to the NPT. Such are the questions," the diplomat said requesting anonymity.

Another diplomat, who also did not wish to be identified, said changes were required to be made in the present draft to meet concerns of the countries.

An official of one of the sceptic countries said they recognise India's need for energy and the importance New Delhi attaches to the civil nuclear deal with the US.

"(But) we want results that will benefit everybody ... a number of measures need to be added to the current package before it can be considered to be a net gain for the world," the official said.

Appearing to suggest that India should sign the NPT "which is the pillar of international security architecture" he said the waiver should "improve" non-proliferation system rather than "undermine" it.

India is keeping its "fingers crossed" and hoping that the US would be able to convince the nuclear cartel for clearing the way for nuclear commerce.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 04 Sep 2008 20:40



How much more ridiculous can it get?
NSG critics fear India could use access to nuclear material markets to indirectly boost its bomb programme and drive nuclear rival and fellow NPT outsider Pakistan into another arms race.

To forestall this, they demanded clauses specifying no trade in the event of another nuclear test explosion
, no transfers of fuel-enrichment technology that could be replicated for bomb-making, and periodic reviews of the waiver.


Some diplomats said resistance to the U.S. proposal had been markedly reduced by U.S. insertions into the latest waiver text indicating, though not spelling out, that trade with India would be cut off if it tested another nuclear weapon.

The new version also said that India, to obtain NSG nuclear cooperation, had "voluntarily" committed to the cartel's guidelines against exporting "dual-use" enrichment hardware.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 04 Sep 2008 20:49

ShauryaT wrote:Am I the only one here, who feels that the new draft has found a way to apply the Hyde act to the NSG exemption?


And what makes you say this? Havent you read all the angst posted above? Or do you read only the pro-dealers opinions?

The Indian constitution has aprovision for the President to dismiss the cabinet. A pliable President has been a INC requirement since early days.

But it might still happen as Mrs. Patil has shown spine occassionally.

MMS has been taken for a ride. Its not just the test stuff. Yes India has the right to tests but the issue is all the variance between what MMS assured the Lok Sabha and the US assurances to their Congress. If there is such variance then the deal is doomed form the begining and the US has used its six reluctant countries to shift the goal posts and got MMS agreement to that too. How much more is he willing to give away ? Has he no izzat? Is he a Sikh and an Indian?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2008 20:51

It is the sovereign right of India to decide with which countries, India wants to have diplomatic relations. We should cut off diplomatic relations with the Pipsqueak: Netherlands, Switzerland, Ireland, Norway and most importantly with New Zealand and Austria.

We should tell them, they should not see the exercise as some retaliation or anything but rather India has decided to do this, as after a cost-benefit analysis, India felt that relations with these countries was of no practical use to India. Period. They may take back their staff and useless diplomats.

And that is for starters. :twisted:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby harbans » 04 Sep 2008 20:54

NSG critics fear India could use access to nuclear material markets to indirectly boost its bomb programme and drive nuclear rival and fellow NPT outsider Pakistan into another arms race.


Exactly the opposite is true. These pipsqueaks are thinking Indian mentality is the same as the Porki one. They haven't got it correct. They just don't understand the hyphenation between India and Porkistan as far as nukes is idiocy. With China backing the PS6 (pipsqueak 6) and they pushing hard to give legitimacy to NK, Libya and Porkistan by putting India along with them, they're the ones doing a big injustice to non-proliferation.

Porkistan is not going to get into an arms race with India if India is dehyphenated from it regarding all things nuclear. It will get into an arms race with India if it remains Hyphenated to India. Hyphenation is Porki motive to arms race. This the PS6 have never understood till this moment.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 04 Sep 2008 21:03

I think the time has come for MMS to decide which fork to take: Indian or US.

My read is that he always favored the economic angle this deal brought to the table and it looks like he very badly miscalculated the distance the US would travel to denuke India.

The US fork would mean good economy and potential loss of nukes. The Indian fork would mean just the opposite. Like Snow said - devalue India. I am fairly confident that MMS would take the US fork - he will not be able to accept a legacy that will degrade the Indian economic future.

From the US PoV, they will never talk about denuking India, but will always act in that direction.

Like I said MMS has at best punted the problem for a future Indian leader.

The only chance is that India can still tilt the table, but the chai-biscut environment must go. No two ways about it.

These pipsqueaks are thinking Indian mentality is the same as the Porki one. They haven't got it correct.


Nor has India done anything to correct it.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 04 Sep 2008 21:08

MMS has been taken for a ride


In politics rides are the only way of life, only question is who is driving.

Also, the fall from J-18 to the Hyde Act was evidence that the ride had started.

But, how far - away from the goal - the ride has gone is a huge miscalculation on the part of MMS. He should come clean and not "defend" the deal.

Testing, I still feel, is not an issue - India can test any time. The consequences are also a give - that was stamped when J-18 was not agreed to by the US.

The only issue is help for the civilian side of the equation. The Hyde Act, 123. IAEA and now the NSG deals all have to hold Indian civilian side hostage, with one exception of course.

I am not unhappy with the deals per se. I am very unhappy the way MMS has handled all this.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby nkumar » 04 Sep 2008 21:22

ramana wrote:MMS has been taken for a ride.


ramana, it is difficult to agree with the above statement. I feel PMO knew about the letter: Muford said that India knew about it and now AK has confirmed that. He is clearly implicating the GoI for lying to the Parliament that Hyde doesn't apply to 123 and we will only go by the provisions of 123. What is surprising is that AK claiming that it doesn't take anything away from India.

The letter confirms that 123 is in full conformity with US domestic laws (Hyde and Atomic Energy Act). No amount spin by anyone with will hide this painful fact (not to mention of unassured fuel supplies and reprocessing tech). Future US administrations will go by the US policy and laws and not by the Indian interpretations of 123. If the GoI has any sharm, then it should immediately convene the Parliament and explain the poles apart stands of India and US.

RajeshA, it is unwise to make diplomacy work in a digital mode. We will not gain at this stage by cutting off diplomatic relations. We will get even with the pygmies when the opportunity comes.
Last edited by nkumar on 04 Sep 2008 21:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2008 21:25

NRao wrote:The only issue is help for the civilian side of the equation. The Hyde Act, 123. IAEA and now the NSG deals all have to hold Indian civilian side hostage, with one exception of course.

I am not unhappy with the deals per se. I am very unhappy the way MMS has handled all this.


May be it is time to shove it up US's b***side. I would propose:

1. Once India gets the waiver, the Indian community in the USA should not push anymore for the 123 Agreement. Hopefully Howard Berman is so upset, that he proves to be obstinate and does not allow for a vote in September. Also Hopefully the lame duck session does not take place. In the end there is no 123 Agreement to sign. Even if the Agreement is there after the lame-duck session, MMS should call an election beforehand, and say he will have to get a new mandate because of all these attacks from the Opposition, thanks to US.

2. New Administrations come in India and USA, and the deal is opened up again and negotiated till William Burns falls dead because of over-exhaustion.

3. In the mean time, India does plenty of business with Russia and France.

4. India also does not sign any agreement with Canada and Australia for fuel supplies if they insist on Hyde-Conditions like no-testing et al.

5. India should try to get its Uranium from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Niger, Namibia, etc. or directly from France and Russia. USA is kept out of business until they throw out those clauses about nuclear testing in the Hyde Act and Canada and Australia also do not insist on them.

6. We can keep the USA in good humor by buying some weapon systems, but we should not allow them to have any negative influence over our Strategic Fuel Reserve, or over some Laws over our Nuclear Testing Option. Let us send them too for a ride, just as the US is taking us on a ride at the NSG.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2008 21:33

nkumar wrote:RajeshA, it is unwise to make diplomacy work in a digital mode. We will not gain at this stage by cutting off diplomatic relations. We will get even with the pygmies when the opportunity comes.


Nkumar Ji,
We have been under sanctions for over 34 years. In all this time, do you believe any leader in India has ever thought on the lines of taking our pound of flesh from anybody. No, Indians don't do that. We love drinking poison. Opportunities come and they go, and nobody recognizes them for what they are, opportunities. It is always let bygones be bygones.

Like I said, we don't need to package cutting off diplomatic relations as a retaliation measure, and we don't need to froth in the mouth while doing it. One can call it, a cost cutting measure, if one wants.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby svinayak » 04 Sep 2008 21:38

BJP slams PM on N-deal, plans privilege motion


“At the time we smelt that something was wrong. Now it is clear that the Bush administration wanted to keep this letter confidential. If this 26-page letter had been made public before July 26, 2008 (the day of the trust vote) then the Manmohan Singh Government would not have survived. We have serious objections to this as it is not the role of the US to save a government in India or to make sure that it falls. This is India's internal matter. This letter should have been made public in a transparent way,” he added.

See the coordination between the UPA govt and the US govt on the timing of the release to ensure that the minority govt survives the vote of confidence. Hence the statement of the US admin about working with the minority govt.
If people think that this deal is after real negotiation then they are fooled.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 04 Sep 2008 21:41

NRao and nkumar, I said MMS was taken for a ride for the alternative is too shocking for a sitting Prime Minister who is part of the establishment. Becasue that will require bringing in the Consititutional hammers which is not good for anybody.

So I said that to give them a way out.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2008 21:43

Acharya Ji,

Usually two negotiating partners do make an effort that the position of one's partner is domestically strengthened. Only if the position is strengthened, can the other partner also deliver something worthwhile. IMHO, that is not something for which one ought to hang MMS or the USA (proverbially speaking, of course)

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby svinayak » 04 Sep 2008 21:47

RajeshA wrote:Acharya Ji,

Usually two negotiating partners do make an effort that the position of one's partner is domestically strengthened. Only if the position is strengthened, can the other partner also deliver something worthwhile. IMHO, that is not something for which one ought to hang MMS or the USA (proverbially speaking, of course)

That was not what I posted.
Here J18 seemed like a first step with good faith. But the final end product after 3 years is not what India bargained for. There is no meeting point for a large consensus inside India. This is a fact.

There will be political changes inside India and then more iterations of the same thing will go through or the world situation changes again.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2008 21:50

Ramana Ji,

I don't think MMS is willing to use that crutch of plausible deniability, taken for a ride excuse.

'Letter Bomb no secret, just misunderstood': Kapil Sibal. IBNLive

Karan Thapar: Let me start with a simple question – does the leak of this letter amount to a setback or a disaster for the Indo-US nuclear deal? Or has it been misunderstood and therefore misrepresented by the press?

Kapil Sibal: Of course it has been both misunderstood and misrepresented . First of all, it is not a secret document. There's no communication between the US government and the Congress saying it is secret and therefore don't leak it.

Karan Thapar: In other words, you are saying that it was never classified by the US State Department?

Kapil Sibal: It was never classified by the US State Department. The Congress decided to do one thing and that has nothing to do with the US government.

Karan Thapar: What you are saying is that this letter does not amount to secrets that the US State Department wanted hidden from India?

Kapil Sibal: We are two sovereign countries. India has a right to test and the US in terms of its sovereign decision can decide to do whatever is in the context of our rights.

Karan Thapar: So the status quo as existed from the 123 Agreement onwards has not changed because of the leak?

Kapil Sibal: Of course not. And the leak has nothing to do with the status quo. This leak is consistent with the 123 Agreement which itself provides what would happen in event of change of environment if India were to test. There's a whole modality to be adhered to in the 123 by both the countries.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 04 Sep 2008 21:53

Also one has to understand what has happened to correctly interpret the facts. No point in distorting the prespective. It can dim but not distort.

The path from J18 to now is very different and has a lot of giveaways on Indian side and the body public has not been informed or was given half truths.

Is this the goal of the Modern Indians to chain India for ever so they can be the top dogs of the pile?

Is this the trsyt with destiny all about?

RajeshA Sibbal confirms that it was willing sellout. I was charitable.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2008 21:54

Acharya wrote:See the coordination between the UPA govt and the US govt on the timing of the release to ensure that the minority govt survives the vote of confidence. Hence the statement of the US admin about working with the minority govt.
If people think that this deal is after real negotiation then they are fooled.


Acharya Ji,
I tried to respond to the above. I could have misunderstood your point.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby samuel » 04 Sep 2008 22:00

This deal, first and foremost, is about maintaining the "non-proliferation regime." The Hon'ble Prime Minister told us that the west, the US, wants to help us. I believe he was wrong.
The United States is not interested in donating a strategic nuclear program. We can exist as a "strategic partner," strategic for the US to be sure. The fault line that has been exposed now WAS ALWAYS THERE TO BE SEEN.

We've all heard the comments and back and forth. The arguments are well known. Fundamentally, this was a proposed economic and strategic gain, at J18.
With time it became clear there wasn't much of a strategic gain as that NWS slipped to SNW to SWNNWS. That became clear with Hyde. If we had had a strategic partnership with America in place and our trust in them was well-placed through precedent, we might've considered a deal at this depth, which is singularly important both for strategic defence and energy need. I do not see the precedent for such a trust, call me old fashioned and out of date.

There is not much of an economic gain either. If we fundamentally place confidence in our 3-stage program, it is a conscious act, like faith, and realize that as nuclear power grows in demand, so must thorium and technology around it. The position to avoid, is that we endup buying NSG supplied fuel and reactors (we'll be sure to get in the spare parts business for sure) and have a vast energy supply be on the basis of a negative balance. Imagine that we grow into a cycle of dependence that when the day to fully exploit thorium comes, maybe yet again India will be the center of attention for its riches of raw material for these other countries to sell new and improved thorium reactors! In contrast, we may say, hold on, we are not ready yet for a NoClear deal, which would be because we most certainly have not secured our competitive advantage in the nuclear strategic game in the world. The point is we can and there is no country in the world that can succeed if it does not incubate its own methods to a sufficient degree as to be competitive and valued.

The right way forward for India is simply to preserve our methods, our ways, our means, our rule and our pride. Happy to do business with ya, I have a thorium reactor to sell.

This means that we tell the US, it's time to take it easy. We tell them we are committed to building a better relationship with them by improving our economic relationship with them and other NSG members of significance. We will tell them that since the world is not ready to recognize us as a nuclear power, we'll be happy to go on our own. We'll get back when the US has sorted out the NSG and help us in the great power status that they so keenly desire for us.

In the meantime, we speed up our 3-stage program, which would have been all but lost in this deal. People may feel there is nothing to the 3-stage program, fine, let's talk of what it could be then.
In the meantime, lets find strategic partners for our nuclear defense. Maybe we guarantee access of nuclear weapons to Israel in their hour of need and sign a secret or not-so-secret treaty. If that idea can be shot down, lets try something else. Fundamentally, we do have, I believe, with some work, the means to stand up on our own. That ability will come in very handy when it hopefully will be our turn to lead the world again.

But whatever happens, let us not connect dots that are too far apart. Aliasing will then be the most likely outcome. That is, we won't get what we thought we were getting.

The right way forward showed up with J18. It was acceptable. Things went south thence. We need to back off, now, though it may be too late already.
S

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 04 Sep 2008 22:10

Its not a partnership agreetment but an India specific Strategic Arms Limitation Agreement (SALA).
What it does is India agrees to limiting its strategic arms to in quality and quantitity and in return willbe allowed to import some fuel and nothing else to process the fuel. And Indian elite are happy with this as they never were comfortable with these strategic arms. The politicians, the officialdom, the scientific community and the military were all not enthusisatic for they never saw beyond their own wells. In such a milieu, the US got into the middle and connected all these people and gave them a deal they cant refuse. And the business class provided the connections the wells.

But to make this happen they had to lie to the people who had trusted them to act in national interests. Thats the problem. All that Macaulyite education about nationalism and modern world was wasted. They reverted back to deceit that shiv thinks that Hindus/Indians are afflicted with.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby samuel » 04 Sep 2008 22:31

ramana wrote:
But to make this happen they had to lie to the people who had trusted them to act in national interests. Thats the problem. All that Macaulyite education about nationalism and modern world was wasted. They reverted back to deceit that shiv thinks that Hindus/Indians are afflicted with.


Though this may be too early (in the sense that the US pulls a last minute goal and the momentum against remains insufficient in India for a pause), and it may be out of bounds for this thread, it would be very useful for me to learn and thus to hear you expand on this.

I believe all our leaders think they act in the supreme interests of India, whether or not their actions are in the supreme interest of India. There is a confluence of factors here. An unelected PM, a desire to eject old ways for a liberalization that may or may not be that, the belief that strategic growth follows economic growth, a fully subservient babudom, an international community with prejudice whose depth we have yet to unravel, and so on... Looking at this deal, whether or not it happens, in light of the worldview and motivation that underpins its central players (not nations necessarily) will be of great value, I think.

Not sure how to proceed just yet.

S

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby V_Raman » 04 Sep 2008 22:32

SALA - isnt that what trishanku swarg is all about? you dont get to have the first class apsaras. you get something beneath them. it is swarg nonetheless.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2008 22:34

NSG meet eve, Washington posts N-bomb to India by Baruah: Hindustan Times

Diplomats here in Vienna suggested that the US should not ask the NSG to do what it does not want to do with India.

Here, in Vienna, ahead of the NSG meeting, there isn’t much anyone is letting on. Not even the security people at the venue where the NSG gather on Thursday -- the Japanese permanent mission in Vienna.

The Americans, meanwhile, who have been aggressively pushing for an India-specific waiver at the NSG, believe that they will be able to swing it, but others are not quite sure. “It's not if, it's when,” one diplomat, speaking on background, told the HT. There are also suggestions that one more meeting – a brief one — will be required to clear the nuclear deal.

Another diplomat, who will head his country's team for the talks on Thursday, said there would be speeches, like at a previous meeting on August 21 by different member nations. “We would then be looking to get into some drafting opportunities with the Americans, looking at the revised text paragraph by paragraph.”

Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon is expected to arrive on Thursday to be at hand for consultations. India, of course, is not a member of the NSG and will not be at the meetings.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Prem » 04 Sep 2008 22:42

vramanx wrote:SALA - isnt that what trishanku swarg is all about? you dont get to have the first class apsaras. you get something beneath them. it is swarg nonetheless.


See the SALA here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1icVGZtsZE

Kiya jano tum is bheja mai kya kya naksha kheenhca
leeder log ki unchi baate kya samjhe tum neecha
Tum langoti wala na badla hai na badlega
Tum sabh kala log ki kismat hum SALA badlega.
Last edited by Prem on 04 Sep 2008 22:49, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2008 22:44

Well begun, but not half done yet Editorial - Hindustan Times

But New Delhi should not refrain from warning these countries that any attempt to scupper the NSG exemption would take a toll on bilateral relations. Even small post-modern nations must adapt to a world order that is changing both in economic and nuclear terms.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2008 22:50

Twist in deal story : Daily News and Analysis

Prime minister Manmohan Singh and his Congress colleagues has in fact emphasised that it was not Congress that had eschewed future testing. It was clear as daylight that as and when India chooses to conduct a nuclear test, it would be ready to face the consequences of global sanctions once again.

The implicit Indian assumption has been that India does not see the need for conducting Pokhran III in the near future, and that there is no need for facing up to the fallout of a hypothetical question. Singh has made it clear on more than one occasion.

Even the BJP and its prime ministerial hopeful LK Advani know that they will not conduct a nuclear test if they are returned to power because such a test does not add to the country’s military prowess. The Left’s opposition was the overriding anti-American sentiment. Whether the deal fails or succeeds, it is unlikely to be because of well-timed leaks such as this.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby kshirin » 04 Sep 2008 22:50

RajeshA wrote:It is the sovereign right of India to decide with which countries, India wants to have diplomatic relations. We should cut off diplomatic relations with the Pipsqueak: Netherlands, Switzerland, Ireland, Norway and most importantly with New Zealand and Austria.

We should tell them, they should not see the exercise as some retaliation or anything but rather India has decided to do this, as after a cost-benefit analysis, India felt that relations with these countries was of no practical use to India. Period. They may take back their staff and useless diplomats.

And that is for starters. :twisted:


I support the motion. As such a big country we should stop kow-towing to these marginals. Look at the way China frightens everyone who will not toe their line. Did any of these countries open their mouths at China? We need to ask ourselves seriously why we are being dragged through this. I hear the China-Pak agreement was approved within hours. Anyway even if they had not done this it is not worth maintaining representations in small countries. One mission accredited to EU, and 3 for UK, Germany and France should do. The rest really do not count as strategic entities we need to bother about.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 04 Sep 2008 22:56

Prem Ji,
Very apt indeed!

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Prem » 04 Sep 2008 22:59

I recomended this last week. If GOI has any sense left then this coming weekend they should advise these Joes Six pack that diplomatic relations are meant to be with real countries and not with some muncipalites or city states.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby enqyoob » 04 Sep 2008 23:07

No politics
No whines or celebratory lungi dances
Wonleee nook noos pliss.


I will add to that: Please stop insulting each other.


I will add:
No Comment.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby harbans » 04 Sep 2008 23:12

These F**** Pipsqueak are happy with this Consensus Mechanism, which allows them to exercise so much power at the NSG right now to decide on the India-specific Waiver, but would not accept the same Consensus Mechanism to be applied in case India does nuclear testing.


Very Well said Rajesh Ji. This is the hypocrisy.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby enqyoob » 04 Sep 2008 23:23

I am stocking up on Revlon jeans and Levi's Lipstick. According to M. Basu, Foreign Affairs Expert at the Atlanta Fishwrap, these are the items which were to be placed on the Dual-Use List and export-banned to India following the 1998 (and hence upcoming) nuclear tests. :shock:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby enqyoob » 04 Sep 2008 23:42

What is happening now is the classic Panchatantra story of the farmer who brought home a goat, but all his villagers convinced him that it was a dog.

The US COTUS has said many things, and the Indian Lok Sabha/Rajya Sabha have said many things.
But the US-India 123 deal is the agreement that operates between India and US.

The IAEA agreeement between India and IAEA is the agreement that operates between India and the world community.

The NSG is being asked to approve what the IAEA said.

OK, so now the anti-India gang in the US have come out with this non-news "LETTER", and the anti-government forces in India and their supporters abroad have ganged up to insist that the Government resign, at exactly the time when the government needs all the support of Indians to get a clean waiver from the NSG.

So the effect is that the anti-government forces are demanding IMMEDIATE declarations by the PM that he DISAGREES with the "letter", that India intends to conduct nuclear tests, and to do it NOW, so that the NSG Six-Pack anti_India forces can gang up and demand that the NSG draft must include conditions that turn the "intents" in the US internal letter into carved-in-stone NSG orders to the IAEA. All they have to do is to point to the Indian anti-government forces to "prove" that India is bent on breaking the intent of the civilian deal, by going ahead and doing nuclear tests.

Meanwhile, NOTHING NEW has been revealed in that letter.

IOW, the anti-government forces and the anti-India forces are very much in league in attacking India.

Therefore, the anti-govenment forces have proved that they are completely anti-India. The "Fifth Column" and the "Sixth Column", IOW.

Q.E.D.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 04 Sep 2008 23:44

Its not a dog but GOAT that has been brought in.

Well lets see if the NSG waiver that passes is 'clean' as it is already conditional!


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