India nuclear news and discussion

sivab
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby sivab » 07 Sep 2008 19:27

http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/unc ... 93293.html
Obama, McCain hail NSG waiver, seek quick Congressional action

Washington, Sep 7 (IANS) Both US presidential candidates, Barack Obama and John McCain, have welcomed the nuclear cartel’s waiver for India and asked the Bush administration to present the India-US civil nuclear deal to the Congress quickly.Calling the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) decision “another building block in the partnership between our two countries”, Republican McCain asked the Congressional leaders to “act expeditiously to pass the US-India nuclear agreement”.

Democrat Obama “welcomed the news” about NSG Saturday reaching a consensus on an exception for India and described the news as “a positive development”. While asking the administration to submit the deal to the Congress quickly, Obama said he looked forward to reviewing what the 45-member grouping had agreed to in Vienna.

McCain took a dig at his rival for his earlier reservations about the deal, saying that while he “supported it early on and without equivocation”, Obama “supported ‘poison pill’ amendments on the Senate floor that would have had the effect of killing this important agreement”.

In a brief statement issued from Chicago, Obama said: “I welcome news that the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) has now reached a consensus to adopt an exception to its rules that would permit its members to engage in nuclear cooperation with India.

“It is a positive development,” he said adding, “I look forward to reviewing what the NSG has agreed in Vienna, and urge the administration to submit the US-India Agreement for civil nuclear cooperation to the Congress quickly.”


McCain in his statement issued from Arlington said: “I welcome today’s decision by the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group to lift the global ban on civilian nuclear trade with India.”

“This step, which is critical to implementing the US-India civilian nuclear agreement, represents another building block in the partnership between our two countries,” he noted.

“Because the agreement will further involve India in the global non-proliferation regime, strengthen the ongoing transformation of US-India relations, and reduce India’s dependence on carbon-emitting energy sources, I supported it early on and without equivocation,” McCain said.

The same cannot be said of my opponent, who supported ‘poison pill’ amendments on the Senate floor that would have had the effect of killing this important agreement. Now that the NSG has approved it, Congressional leaders should act expeditiously to pass the US-India nuclear agreement here at home.”

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby enqyoob » 07 Sep 2008 19:39

act expeditiously


Reminds me of the Sylvester Stallone movie "Oscar":
Get rid of him! Expeditiously!
:eek:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby ShibaPJ » 07 Sep 2008 19:57

A great day for India and it's much abused babudom. A day to savour, as India gained N-acceptance and independence from the powers-that-are. Far as I can see, Indian interests have been preserved. This deal can lead to a great boon for Indian economy and military (N-) posture, if India plays her cards properly going forward. Also, a couple of issues that got out into the open, both GoI/ Indian public could see, discern and act upon:

- International acceptance of India as a de facto NWS (both IAEA and NSG have approved it now)

- Kaun kitna pani mein hai. Chini perfidy came to the fore again (not that it was ever in doubt), alongwith the mice that roared and huffed and puffed. Now India knows who are the players all share similar interests as us, how we can have a strategic interests convergence

- Reconfirmation of who is the biggest dog in the world. Lots of modelling have predicted the decline of US power, but they are going to remain 'THE ONE' for quite long term (if not alone, then with the allies)

- Dehyphenation of India-Puki equal equal. I know, I know how PRC/ US can slip in a similar deal for Pukis, but imagine repeating the whole rigmorale for Pukis 10/ 20 years down the line (unless NSG/ NPT both are in the doghouse and PRC can swing it just like Today's US)

- Exposure of Commies as Chini interest groups in front of Indian public. Periodic exposure definitely helps building up the Commie rap sheet.

Overall, a very happy day for us Indians. I would say, 3 cheers for the team, the cheerleaders, the ever watchful Indian interest sentinels and the captain (the Captain for his unwavering focus on delivering this, though his performance on other fronts has been very average/ below par). My concluding thoughts and wish is that now the Captain would also start focusing on the more mundane Indian issues (J&K, Maoism, EJsm, termite termination etc etc).

P.S.: I am not so concerned about the supposed bane of the deal, that it is stacked against testing. I foresee opportunities coming up pretty soon (may be within 5-10 years). India can definitely cite events in J&K/ NE to claim supreme national interest and revalidate the TN/ baby boomer stuff. Unkil/ West would not want Chini to gain the upper hand in any such scenarios and would probably look the other way or slap India in the wrist. PRC/ Pukis then would have scored self goals in racheting up the temprature in the cold heights.
Last edited by ShibaPJ on 07 Sep 2008 20:25, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Kanson » 07 Sep 2008 20:07

hnair wrote:
G Subramaniam wrote:There is consensus that the boosted fission 200KT design works
I am lost as to why there is need for the 1MT pure fusion, since the P-5 is now mostly switching to 200KT designs


GS-saar, whatever we have, particularly the scaleable 200kt thingy, it works splendidly. I dont think even the NPAs have any doubts about that. But it might be a wee bit heavy for the fat ladies in the babyboomer. The ladies can still lob the chunky Kornetto icecreams far enough and barbeque the lizard's ass, no problem. But beyond that, the ladies will start gasping for range. Hence they dont threaten "some". Those "some" realized what is coming down the road, if they keep listening to NPAs and the six-peeshooters of NSG. They have traded with us this waiver agreement, for ensuring their own feeling of security. Or atleast the sense of security to their public that an allegedly untested family of light weapons can give. It is impressive, what fear of the unknown can do: these "some" have pulled some really heavy diplomatic muscle to get this done.

So 1MT pure fusion is not the issue, lighter Kornetto icecreams with 200-400Kt eclairs inside, now that is something the fat ladies love to lob way over the horizon, almost until the seas of Chile. That *might* still need 'validation'. To delay that 'validation' by India, that was the purpose of this whole excersize of Bush (and Clinton's Talbott ) hugging us. Global Warming type paranoia campaigns helped this process from the liberal side of the political spectrum under this current administration.

And it is not bad - these "some" know they have to supply fuel reliably or else they will have an agitated public to soothe in the future :) Yessir, we, the unwashed, learned about these easily agitated public from such "grolious readels" like the Kims, the Chengs, the xeroxes etc. 8)

I am happy if we can break the powercut candle and read in the dark. even if it is just a dream.

I guess nothing wrong in adding 2 point to yours just as per my understandings.

1. On military value targets:
The kind of accuracy demonstrated in recent tests show that it is very possible to ram the warhead through the cave entrance of Sandya base or other similar military targets. With this accuracy India can take out any military targets with ~10kt weapon; at max ~ 50kt weapon is needed.

2. On city busting mode:
Let accept the official version of max achievable yeild, how conservative it may be, as 200kt. One may take it as TN or may satisfy as boosted one. whichever way you cut it, the payload can weigh ~500 kg, conservatively. With the payload capacity of Agni-3, India can lob 3 such warheads in one missile against any city of its reach. It produce more destruction than 1 Mt weapon.

So even with cautious approach, one can say India has decent N-weapon capablities or kind of min. deterence in protecting it interest.

BARC's capabilities and capacity is not in doubt to develop and refine the arsenal, but as Indians we have no idea of what they've actually done in 10 years.
One can expect that they might be working on improving the package, like bunker busters etc.

JMT

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby sivab » 07 Sep 2008 20:20

Kanson wrote:2. On city busting mode:
Let accept the official version of max achievable yeild, how conservative it may be, as 200kt. One may take it as TN or may satisfy as boosted one. whichever way you cut it, the payload can weigh ~500 kg, conservatively. With the payload capacity of Agni-3, India can lob 3 such warheads in one missile against any city of its reach. It produce more destruction than 1 Mt weapon.


Per Avinash Chander Agni V will carry 3 warheads.

http://syedakbarindia.blogspot.com/2008 ... gni-5.html
Agni-5: India plans 5000 km range Agni-5 missile

Avinash Chander said the next programme would be Agni-5. There's no need for Agni-4 as it's just an upgradation of the existing Agni-3. "We are looking forward to developing Agni-5 missiles with multiple warheads.
The present missile system carries only one warhead. The advanced stage of Agni-5 will be capable of carrying three warheads that could hit the given target or the set of different targets with precision," he pointed out.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby sivab » 07 Sep 2008 20:23

http://syedakbarindia.blogspot.com/2008 ... er-of.html
Nuclear Suppliers Group's waiver of embargo against India: Hyderabad to play a global role

By Syed Akbar
Hyderabad, Sept 6: The Nuclear Suppliers Group's decision to lift trade embargo on India will push Hyderabad onto the international nuclear map with the city-based Nuclear Fuel Complex and private companies playing a major role in the world atomic market.
The NFC, controlled by the Department of Atomic Energy, will emerge a key player in nuclear energy not only in India but also in the international arena. The Complex has been single-handedly meeting the requirements of the country's nuclear energy needs despite NSG's trade embargo on India during the past 34 years. And it has built up self-reliance in nuclear fuel sector by encouraging private companies to assist it through certain critical components required for nuclear power stations.
"With the lifting of the embargo NFC may go global. It has the capacity to provide critical support to anyone in the world. In fact, NFC is the only institution of its kind in the world where natural and enriched uranium fuel, zirconium alloy cladding and reactor core components are manufactured under one roof starting from the raw materials," says a senior official of the Complex.

Moreover, Hyderabad has several ancillary units supplying components to NFC and other defence organisations. Now that decks have been cleared, these firms are likely to take up international deals, boosting India's role in the world nuclear sector. NFC and its supporting firms have already established their credentials by producing the excellent quality of nuclear fuel that enabled India's nuclear power plants to reach a global record of more than 90 per cent plant load factor. "NFC is ready to meet the increased demand for nuclear fuel that is expected to arise in the future," the official said. Already NFC is supplying 700 tonnes of uranium oxide to
the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited.
NFC has the capability to supply sub-assemblies and all stainless steel hardware including tubes, bars, sheets and springs for operating the fast breeder test reactor and prototype fast breeder reactor. The special materials plant at NFC manufactures high value, low volume, high purity special materials like tantalum, niobium, gallium and indium for applications in electronics, aerospace and defense sectors.
"A notable feature at the Nuclear Fuel Complex is that, apart from in-house process development, a lot of encouragement is given to the Indian industry for fabrication of plant equipments and automated systems," the NFC's official website points out highlighting the role the local industry is going the play in the area.
The Uranium Oxide Plant processes crude uranium concentrate to pure uranium di-oxide powder while the Ceramic Fuel Fabrication Plant produces sintered uranium oxide pellets. It has also the facility to process imported enriched uranium hexafluoride to enriched uranium oxide powder. Now this facility will get a boost in the post-NSG waiver.
According to sources, Hyderabad-based industries including NFC are likely to generate revenues of about Rs 500 crore initially once they go global. Many more private players are likely to join the race as India alone is poised to generate 20,000 mw nuclear power in the next 12 years. Moreover, it will also bring in foreign investments leading to mushrooming of nuclear power plants. Also Andhra Pradesh has sufficiently large resources of nuclear material and the State may attract investments once uranium mining in the State takes a concrete shape.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Gerard » 07 Sep 2008 20:24

Singur's lessons for solar power
events at Singur and other places in West Bengal and Orissa give warning of huge popular resistance to land acquisition for future power plants. This will be a serious problem for nuclear power plants, because of radiation risks. And it may prove an insurmountable hurdle for solar power because of the huge acreage needed.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Gerard » 07 Sep 2008 20:33

My other brother Daryl is worried about his image (and loss of ayatollah status)
I would encourage those of you who seem to believe ACA is only interested in the U.S.-Indian nuclear deal to peruse the years of issues of Arms Control Today and other reports, analyses, and Focus editorials to understand better what ACA is about and what my personal perspectives are.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Suppiah » 07 Sep 2008 20:41

Suppiah wrote:MKN has always been open mouthed. He is the GF of this cabinet. MMS freed of Stalinist slavery could care a bit less now as well but that needs to be confirmed by words from either himself or Pranab at the very least. Let us not have high hopes. I would not be surprised to see a MOEA statement thanking China as well or doing a bit of white wash along the lines of what SV tried to do.


Sorry have to quote my own post but things are turning out along the lines I predicted

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Pran ... 455590.cms

Pranab dodges question on China's role in NSG.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Baljeet » 07 Sep 2008 20:51

Arun_S wrote:
sunilUpa wrote:
"It is also China's hope that the NSG would equally address the aspirations of all parties for the peaceful use of nuclear power while adhering to the nuclear non-proliferation mechanism," he said, apparently alluding to Pakistan's repeated attempts to get a civil nuclear deal with the United States, similar to the Indo-US agreement.


:(( :(( :(( why discriminate against Xerox Khan..we are all for free trade onlee...


linky

Arman / Arzoo / Aspirations come for dime a dozen; nay they come for free.

Chini can keep singing:
    "Dil Kay Arman Asu-o Main Beh Gayey"
for the Baki Waqkth that is yet Baki in the life of "taller than mountain" friend Bakistan aka 'Bakri'stan


Arunji
I am appending your thoughts a little if you don't mind
]"Dil Kay Arman Asu-o Main Beh Gayey, jo paki key dost hain woh duniya mein akele rah gaye, andaa chai garam, chinki besharam" :rotfl:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Avinash R » 07 Sep 2008 21:22

UK hails grant of NSG waiver to India
Sun-Sep 07, 2008
London : Hailing grant of the NSG waiver to India, a "pleased" Britain has said the move would strengthen the non-proliferation regime and make "a significant contribution" to energy and climate security.

The green signal by the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group to India that ends the country's 34-year-old nuclear isolation, further into the broader non-proliferation framework which the UK firmly supports, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said.

Taking note of India's unilateral moratorium on nuclear ktesting, he said the "clear commitment" expressed by India in this regard "is also important."

"It is very welcome that the Nuclear Suppliers Group has reached agreement on civil nuclear cooperation with India," he said in a statement.

Miliband said that the UK has supported the Indo-US civil nuclear initiative from the beginning.

“We believe it will make a significant contribution to energy and climate security, as well as developmental and economic objectives, for India and the International Community,” he added.

Earlier, British envoy to the NSG, Simon Smith, also expressed happiness that a compromise had been reached on the issue at the grouping.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Sanjay M » 07 Sep 2008 21:36

kshirin wrote:China does not want a healthy India, the weaker we are, the better for them, they have been behind the recent multiple sores erupting all over India. In the end they knew no NSG country would risk its bilateral relationship with India or could question India's integrity (the Pranab Mukherjee statement brought around the pipsqueak posturers and non-believers), and they were isolated. They don't like to be isolated like that in international fora and exposed for the visceral rivalry they harbour towards us, so they have to appear civilised and bow to the consensus.

But seriously, I am delighted that we woke up the Chinese Ambassador! With China and Pak, tit for tat works.


Honestly speaking, if the positions were reversed, and we were being asked to admit China to the NSG, I would be giving a firm 'NO' regardless of what speeches and threats were uttered. The Chinese know that power comes from the barrel of a gun, and so it's totally incongruous of them to help us untie our gun-barrel, which is meant to be aimed at them.

Is there more to their decision than meets the eye, here?
Do they have any further tricks up their sleeve?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Sanjay M » 07 Sep 2008 21:37

Another question -- if China only joined NPT in 1992, then why did NPT recognize them in 1974 as a full P5 nuclear power, not amenable to rollback?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 07 Sep 2008 21:41

NPT recognised those countries that tested prior to Jan 1968. PRC was a recognised NWS from then on. Its another matter that it joined in 1992 after proliferating the stuff.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby svinayak » 07 Sep 2008 21:54

Sanjay M wrote:Another question -- if China only joined NPT in 1992, then why did NPT recognize them in 1974 as a full P5 nuclear power, not amenable to rollback?

They can join anytime they want as long as they have tested the bomb before 1968

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby BSR Murthy » 07 Sep 2008 21:56


Gerard
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Gerard » 07 Sep 2008 21:58

Kalam: "No treaty could come in the way of India conducting n-tests"
"When the supreme national interest is there, no pact, no treaty, nothing can come in between. If international situation made the nation to do a test, it has to do a test," Kalam told television channels when asked whether India can conduct nuclear tests after the operationalisation of the Indo-US nuclear deal.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Gerard » 07 Sep 2008 21:59

Nuclear India may trigger arms race in Asia: China
"China and India should initiate a process of regular dialogue to make implement the principals of nuclear non-proliferation in Asia," Ma Jiali, research professor at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told TNN after the crucial NSG decision.
Beijing found it difficult to make a blatant show of its opposition for fear of betraying its fears concerning India and losing its face before the world community.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby raj_singh » 07 Sep 2008 21:59

No international pact, no treaty can stop India from doing another nuclear test in the supreme national interest.

Said by former president of India, Dr APJ Kalam on NDTV

He also said self moratorium was declared because scientists were confident of the desired results (words to this effect)
Last edited by raj_singh on 07 Sep 2008 22:01, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby BSR Murthy » 07 Sep 2008 22:00

Arms Control Wonk
Another important story will be China’s role — although China didn’t appear in the news stories as prominently as Austria, Ireland and New Zealand, Beijing apparently played an active role in attempting to block the waiver behind the scenes. This will be a great case study for a dissertation on the new Chinese diplomacy.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby svinayak » 07 Sep 2008 22:05

BSR Murthy wrote:Arms Control Wonk
Another important story will be China’s role — although China didn’t appear in the news stories as prominently as Austria, Ireland and New Zealand, Beijing apparently played an active role in attempting to block the waiver behind the scenes. This will be a great case study for a dissertation on the new Chinese diplomacy.


They want to create an opposition to India from Asia region instead of Europe or US
This is part of the larger asian framework

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Sanjay M » 07 Sep 2008 22:16

Acharya wrote:
Sanjay M wrote:Another question -- if China only joined NPT in 1992, then why did NPT recognize them in 1974 as a full P5 nuclear power, not amenable to rollback?

They can join anytime they want as long as they have tested the bomb before 1968


That shows India should have argued for an NPT that was not retroactive, but which would take effect from its post-Pokhran inception onwards. Even if the Americans would have been opposed, the Soviets could have favoured it.

Switching the date from 1968 to 1974 isn't as big a leap, and is in fact more logical.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby jerry » 07 Sep 2008 22:29

[
raj_singh wrote:No international pact, no treaty can stop India from doing another nuclear test in the supreme national interest.

Said by former president of India, Dr APJ Kalam on NDTV

He also said self moratorium was declared because scientists were confident of the desired results (words to this effect)

Just what Brajesh Mishra said yesterday SO they are confident of their 'bums'

Ah even Nick Burns has said in his testimony to senate that the chance of India testing in the near future is very remote and unlikely. Must also have some reason for that.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Gerard » 07 Sep 2008 22:37

Switching the date from 1968 to 1974 isn't as big a leap, and is in fact more logical.


NPT Article IX.3
For the purposes of this Treaty, a nuclear-weapon State is one which has manufactured and exploded a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive device prior to January 1, 1967.


All that is required is amending one character in the treaty text - changing the '6' to a '7'.

The Japanese and others will of course have different ideas on NPT changes...

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 07 Sep 2008 22:40

Arun_S wrote:
harbans wrote:Arun Ji thanks for confirming. Suppiah ji there are already reactors considered civilian and under IAEA safeguards already, those are the ones i was referring to. They are running at very low capacity. Their contribution to the grid can be greatly increased pretty soon as Arun Ji confirms.

Sure saar.
Pls see page 2 of this pdf doc for reactors currently under IAEA as well those due for IAEA after separation.
http://www.indiaresearch.org/Indo-USStrategicDeal.pdf


Suppiah wrote:Wow, quite an eye-opener article. Did not know we had so much capacity for nuclear weapons.


However for India there is very big gap between transforming Capacity --> Intent --> Realization of real WgPu in hand. All that Poo is still in spent fuel pileup, need political ok to go reprocess that and keep powder dry before FMTC kicks in. Right now the inventory is rather too small. The above article assume 3Kg per weapon, which is reasonable consumption rate for TN weapon only. Fission or Boosted Fission weapons require much higher qty of fissile material (thus translate to fewer number of warheads).

Further as the article shows, for India deterrence it is not the Pu that is bottleneck, limiting factor is credibelity of weapons that
1) consume such low amount of Pu,
2) yield of the weapon
3) weight of the warhead (MIRV capabelity and/or missile range is inversly proportional to warhead weight)
4) unambiguous demonstration of possessing a working weapon (viz lack of test to prove yield & type of weapon)

Unfortunately that is the other half that is lost in the NSG and US-India N deal. But there are some less preferred ways to square the round hole; question is GoI needs to give demonstarteble evidence that it has pursued and completed executing on those means and methods to ensure Indian N weapons are unambiguously credible to the most pessimistic Nuclear challenger.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 07 Sep 2008 22:59

International Group Backs Nuclear Accord For U.S., India by Rama Lakshmi and Glenn Kessler: Washington Post

Some members, including Austria, Ireland and New Zealand, wanted the waiver to include a clause saying that nuclear trade with India would be cut off automatically if it resumed nuclear testing. On Friday, Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee tried to allay fears by reaffirming India's commitment to a voluntary moratorium on testing.

The final document avoids any mention of testing but says the waiver is "based" on Mukherjee's assurances Friday.

The suppliers group did not give India access to enrichment and reprocessing technology and has refused its request to participate in decisions about guidelines. The group said, however, that India might be consulted by the chairman.


Can somebody please throw some light on this interpretation of the NSG Waiver by Washington Post?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 07 Sep 2008 23:10

jerry wrote:[
raj_singh wrote:No international pact, no treaty can stop India from doing another nuclear test in the supreme national interest.

Said by former president of India, Dr APJ Kalam on NDTV

He also said self moratorium was declared because scientists were confident of the desired results (words to this effect)

Just what Brajesh Mishra said yesterday SO they are confident of their 'bums'

Ah even Nick Burns has said in his testimony to senate that the chance of India testing in the near future is very remote and unlikely. Must also have some reason for that.


Surely "scientists were confident of the desired results" before S1 too, but that did not produce desired result of demonstrable credible weapons! hence the need by scientists to pull out shot# S6, and go for a second round of test in 2002 (that ABV canceled at the last moment); next round of test that India is still pining for today.

It is precisely due to failure on proving ground of "confident scientists" that India is in this soup today 10 years later; Requiring to test but now India will be strung up the tree with a rope tied around its ba**s.

Scientist confidence is of no deterrence value to potential challenger ..... .. period. Only Scientific results give deterrence value.

Brajesh Mishra's wishful confidence has even less, perhaps negative deterrence value (His credibility w.r.t confidence in scientists confidence bit dust in the sand of Pokhran, under his watch)

If wish (Arzoo/Armaan) had wings pigs would fly, and every one will have 72 nymphs on earth.

My personal viewpoint onleeee .. .

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 07 Sep 2008 23:17

G Subramaniam wrote:
Arun_S wrote:
Sanjay wrote:Ramana, I wholly agree with you but to play devil's-advocate:

1) Has our deterrent become a casualty - as per Iyengar ?
2) Has our testing ability really vanished ?

My asssessment is as follows:

1) India has demonstrated viable and reliable fission and boosted-fission capability.
2) India probably has reliable boosted-fission capability fission capability scalable to 150-200KT.
3) That capability may be reliable but has not been demonstrated via a full yield test.
4) India has significant thermonuclear weapons potential but the S-1 test did not demonstrate that capability as being reliable.
5) India may well have a viable thermonuclear weapon but again it has not been demonstrated.

I do not think I am exaggerating or being overly optimistic.

We also have to contend with the fact that India has not tested for the last 10 years and has shown no inclination to be in a rush to resume testing.

What do we make of that ?

Are we to assume BARC has been doing nothing for 10 years ? Are we to assume no sub-critical and/ or hydronuclear testing took place (despite the fact we have been talking about it since the 1980s) ?


Much depends on how we manipulate the deal. India has much to gain - as does the US. It's all in the manipulation.


I am delighted and jubilant that NPA have got a resounding "thappad" and kick between the legs today, in just answer to their venom against India.

For the bold above.

Surely no, but the question is what? Since India is a explicit and overt Nuclear Weapon State there are set of activities and deliverables India (read BARC) needs to make (in a mode very different from before 1998) openly to exercise and demonstrate nuclear activities commensurate with Nuclear Weapon State and more so credible Indian nuclear deterrence. So what has BARC done there in last 10 years? I and most Indian citizens would will be enlightened to know.


There is consensus that the boosted fission 200KT design works

To me that is surely news from Mars.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby enqyoob » 07 Sep 2008 23:30

Time to lock this thread?


I seem to remember a round of pleasantries and mutual exchanges of wishes for joyful activities etc. between some Admins and other (now ex-) BRF senior ppl a few months ago. Now one side in those pleasantries (Ah! Come to think of it, the Admin involved) is back to doing whatever it was that excited much of that spectacle.

Perhaps a separate :(( :(( thread for all the :(( :(( from Admins, NPAs, Pakis, Chinkies, Holies, EBs, Austrians, tea-cup tsunamis, Kiwis, Irishdrunks and others terribly :(( about the NSG waiver?


Of course, my personal opinion onlee. Or perhaps I should starting posting excerpts from those email exchanges which I was kindly and gratuitously privileged to enjoy viewing?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 07 Sep 2008 23:44

Testing will become an issue if anyone else - specially China or Pakistan - test. However, it may not become an issue too.

I think/feel the issue that will make India "test" is China-creep, specially in IOR. IF (big IF) India can stall this creep, then testing nukes become less necessary.

Having said that I doubt that any Indian gov will let go of such a chance - even one that has no relevance to India. In fact, I would advocate India test at the first opportune moment and the NSG out of the way.

A Q: What impact will the Chinese behavior at the NSG have on China?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 07 Sep 2008 23:48

narayanan wrote:Of course, my personal opinion onlee. Or perhaps I should starting posting excerpts from those email exchanges which I was kindly and gratuitously privileged to enjoy viewing?

Knowledge is enlightening, and am sure those email exposition you propose will be enlightening and the riposte suitably matched for complete enlightenment, and entertainment. :twisted:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Victor » 07 Sep 2008 23:58

The effect of this deal, good as it is for India, worries me when it comes to the elections. India must not have Congress in power for another term but the opposition (BJP) is behaving very strangely and making no sense at all. How does any new Indian govt "renegotialte" the deal? By carrying out a test? Shipping back the supplied fuel and reactors? I fear we may be looking at the famous Indian capacity to shoot itself in the foot and admire the aim.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Sanjay M » 08 Sep 2008 00:07

As I said in the Iran thread:

In India, the political backlash would mean the fall of the Congress govt. Manmohan and Sonia would be tossed out on their ear and thrown into the dustheap of history, as was done to Narasimha Rao. That's about the only bright side I can see in all of this. Then the BJP can waltz into power and enjoy the fruits of Congress' labours on the nuclear deal. I'd much prefer that, as then at least India can proceed in its development without the ethnically slanted policies of the Congress Party. If we're going to break out of the 3rd World mold, we'd better make a full break with Nehruvianism too.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby sanjaykumar » 08 Sep 2008 00:20

Perhaps a separate thread for all the from Admins, NPAs, Pakis, Chinkies, Holies, EBs, Austrians, tea-cup tsunamis, Kiwis, Irishdrunks and others terribly about the NSG waiver?

They are Chinese.


As I have stated before the China angle to this NSG waiver will make for a fascinating study-I see a legitimate M.A. in political science. The comment was this was a very complex political and technical negotiation. The communique certainly does not reflect this complexity.

The problem for China is that the corollary of NSG waiver is an eventual P-6.

The fun is only begining.

What of poor little Pakistan? It will have to drop all pretence of parity even to its dimwit domestic populace.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby nkumar » 08 Sep 2008 00:40

Good article by Swapan Dasgupta.
What lies beyond the Deal

The spirited controversy over the Indo-US nuclear deal has boiled down to a set of simple questions. Should India be viewed as a de facto Great Power? If not, to what extent should India be accorded special status?

The differences between Congress and BJP are not over the principle of ‘‘exceptionalism'' but the extent to which India should be treated on a par with the five Great Powers. In office, the BJP had pursued a strategy of ‘‘creeping acquisitions'' to undercut the post-Pokhran II sanctions and regain diplomatic ground. Out of power, it felt that Manmohan Singh had rushed into an agreement with the US because of an inadequate commitment to the strategic programme (the code for nuclear deterrence).

The BJP felt it would have been prudent to negotiate other strategic partnerships with the US first and leave the nuclear question to a time India was stronger and its place at the High Table assured. A hasty agreement that inevitably included checks on sovereign decision-making amounted to bowing to the very nuclear apartheid India had been resisting.

The beautiful people, who have transcended the nation-state, believe the fuss over the right to create mushroom clouds is evidence of the ignorant machismo that plague the socially inadequate. What they overlook is the symbolic importance of the ‘big bang' in the nationalist imagination: Pokhran-II was viewed as an ‘‘explosion of national pride.'' Using the nationalist yardstick, it was entirely logical to interpret international agreements that treat nuke-testing as a punishable crime — and the US and NSG members have been unambiguous on this count — as the emasculation of India.

Yet, it is over-simplistic to see the present furore as a clash between patriots and compradors and ‘‘American lackeys''. There is a section of the elite that sees India's future in purely monetary terms. They want India to be a rich country and not necessarily a politically relevant power. They would rather buy whatever is on offer in Vienna, cap India's fledgling strategic programme, sign the CTBT and get down to the fulfilling business of making money. The BJP has harboured the suspicion that Manmohan's heart is with this group.

At the same time, there is a section of the establishment that sees the nuclear deal as a pragmatic step in breaking India's nuclear isolation, upgrading scientific skills and securing tacit recognition of the strategic programme. Their objective is to ensure that a small window of opportunity remains open to India to expand the bounds of sovereignty in future. No wonder many NSG members and China wanted an agreement that made India a complete prisoner of the non-proliferation agenda.

Just as the anti-deal nationalists are burdened by the incongruity of being on the same side as Communists and Islamists, the presence of two contradictory impulses have made it difficult for the government to sell its side of the bargain effectively. Politically, the government lacked the conviction to take on the nationalists frontally.

It tried to hide the compromises in a veil of needless secrecy that was impossible to sustain in a democracy; it obfuscated the mismatch between the US and India's respective understanding of the agreement in incomprehensible legalese; and it failed to prevent the nuke deal from being linked to its own shoddy survival strategy. The impression that the US has a vested interest in the UPA government's survival could also be damaging in a country where the admiration of Uncle Sam coexists with a distaste of its intrusive ways.

The nuke deal may or may not get signed in a hurry. Whatever the outcome, the kerfuffle over it has exposed distinct approaches to the future of India. It is vital these get debated with a measure of frankness and honesty during the general election campaign. This self-destructive confusion must end.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby munna » 08 Sep 2008 00:55

Kudos to Swapnaoda he has articulated the position of the non commie opposition of the deal (which included BJP). There is no :(( just plain voice of caution. Is this deal a deal of growth at some cost to the national deterrent or at any cost to the national deterrent? The answer remains to be discovered. Till then I request posters to logically dissect the deal and our future course of action.


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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby BSR Murthy » 08 Sep 2008 02:12


enqyoob
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby enqyoob » 08 Sep 2008 02:23

munnaji:

The deal is done. Remaining question is whether to allow the enemies of India to sabotage the COTUS ratification of the deal - even there, I hear that no new conditionalities etc. can be sneaked in. So that's it.

There is of course a place for debate on the future course to be taken with this deal as one of the realities. Unless one is arguing for destroying the deal.

So at this point, saying "no yaaaar, the deal is not all good... " sounds like sour grapes at best, political negativism designed to undermine the government without any good reason, at worst. We know exactly what is in the 123, the IAEA agreement and the NSG waiver, no surprises or last-minute goal-post moving, except that I don't know what the WPapparazi are talking about with "no ENR". I think "R" is very much there, as read from the final published text.

There is no doubt a place for logical debate on the merits of the deal. It was over the past 1,7000,000,000 threads on this topic for the past 2,000,000,000 months.

Now the debate should shift to what to do WITH THE DEAL IN PLACE. This is a valid political question too. What is the UPA's vision of civilian nuclear development? What is the NDA's? The deal has basically done NOTHING to the strategic program, except that India is now clearly recognized as having a strategic program, and the world has agreed to live with that.
*******

Now given my humint sources' indications of who "munna" is, let me also post the following:
1. NO ONE has any right to post Classified Information on BRF owned by their own or on friendly countries. That's not because BRF is special, but because it is not. Posting Classified Info on the web is a criminal offense punishable by long prison terms. Of course if I happened on info that would hurt the TSP or other terrorists, I would post it, because I don't plan to go through Lahore. So if someone posts Classified Info from India's nuke program on BRF, then they must be either (a) criminals or (b) enemies of India.

2. If someone knows Classified Info about the Indian strategic program and "leaked" it to someone who posts conclusions based on that here, then either (a) the postor is a criminal (b)the leaker is a criminal (c) the leaker is a politically-motivated person who knows that the postor is a dummy, and is using the postor to advance a false "conclusion", (d) the leaker is anti-India and is using a very patriotic Indian postor who is also a dummy, in a false-flag disinformation operation, (e) several or all of the above. You take your pick. I don't think such cra* should be posted here because it is either illegal or false or both.

3. If someone has not a clue about any information other than what the rest of us can see on the web, but feels they have exceptional analytical skills that compel them to impress everyone with said skills, regardless of consequences, then I feel that person deserves no respect. Apparently the Idiots' Association of Pakistan complained to the Admins about my use of the term in the adjective sense to refer to certain posts, and said that they were insulted by the lowering of their H&D, so I won't use any such terms.

4. Regarding India's strategic program, and what was demonstrated in 1998, I believe that enough careful analysis was presented, that I am convinced. Further, I do not believe that drastic errors were discovered in these annalysis sometime after May 2004 to force an imperative to "test" during the tenure of a non-NDA government.

5. There was a long and intense argument about the relevance of testing megaton weapons vs. the levels already tested. Several postors including myself argued that megaton level or mostly-fusion testing is irrelevant for long-term deterrent purposes. We won that debate hands down.

So when the losers now try to sneak back in after having :(( :(( that we hurt their tender backsides, etc. etc. and start presenting the same discredited stuff again, yes, that irritates the heck out of me, and tells me that these postors are far from being honest or respectable. Reminds me of what I did to the pakis who tried the same on the C-SPAN forum a while back.

Time for certain parties to move on, and start agitations on other stuff, not the Nuclear Deal. Anyone considered how shockingly sacrilegious it is that non-veg. food is served near the beach of Kerala, right where Shri Parasuram's axe is supposed to have fallen and caused an earthquake? I think this sounds like the sort of issue that deserves a major national campaign. Absolutely.
Last edited by enqyoob on 08 Sep 2008 02:39, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Gerard » 08 Sep 2008 02:30



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