India nuclear news and discussion

samuel
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby samuel » 09 Sep 2008 00:22

Sanatanan wrote:If FBRs and Th Breeders of the 3rd Stage are to be in the "strategic" side, then, their success (measured in terms of the timeliness of project completion to meet the "projected" electricity demand) would depend upon how lax the implementation of the NSG "Waiver" is.


I am reading on the IAEA inspection process, but I must say that this is not the route India will take. Osmotic transfers of ideas because people work on either side is one thing, transfer of material and tools from one to the other entirely different. I do hold the same view that this deal is no help to the 3-stage.

It is strange, to me, that the one thing that would've most likely ensured our leadership in a new a nuclear economy is one that has received little attention. Is success of the 3-stage so certain that this deal is entirely an unnecessary sideshow to us in relation? Or is the effect of one on the other so negligible that they don't deserve a study?

Shri Kakodkar says that our program will continue. Duh, I mean it has to continue, but the point is who cares if we are getting all this firang maal?

The world wanted to help us with our civil nuclear needs and make us a strategic partner, or something like that. They've shown us that we can buy a lot of uranium and reactors from them. $100bln worth for starters. Where is our money better spent and how?

I think the answer must be obvious to people here, I just need to find out too. If you do, kindly let me know!

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 09 Sep 2008 00:24

Could be. The record might be right after POKII on May 11, 1998 in a previous avatar of the forum based on posts and number of members.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 09 Sep 2008 00:25

namit k wrote:i had never seen so many replies in a single thread in just 3 days :eek:
its like atom bomb :wink:


like atom bomb "test"?

BR, where tomorrow comes today.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Gerard » 09 Sep 2008 00:28

No uranium for India: Australia
Australia on Monday left an option open for considering the issue of selling dual-use knowhow and materials to India for its civil nuclear energy projects.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Gerard » 09 Sep 2008 00:34

Dual use technologies will now be available, says Sibal
The end of the embargo would have an impact beyond the civilian nuclear technology sector, as it would also end the restriction of India’s access to various other technologies, he told journalists after the Indian Institute of Technology-Madras’ golden jubilee celebrations of Indo-German cooperation in higher education.

The dual use technologies — which could be used for both civilian and military purposes — would now be available to India from any country which wanted to sell it, Mr. Sibal insisted, reminding journalists that “there are many countries which do not have the legal restrictions the U.S. has.” These technologies were available from the private sector, he pointed out. He listed defence, space, avionics, biomedical research and agriculture as some of the areas that would benefit by the opening up of dual use restrictions that he insisted was an inevitable part of the waiver.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby raj_singh » 09 Sep 2008 00:38

Ramana

The Indian demarche to PRC went out in the weekend. Take a look at the time zone diffrence between Vienna and New Delhi. And back calculate at what time the demarche went out. Hint it was quite late on Friday night! And what that means to PRC H&D. Where is their face now? Why did they let this happen?

Indi truly lets others take credit.


As per the news on NDTV, media is not giving the correct information. No demarche was issued to China. This has been said by External Affairs Ministry or one of the spokespersons of GOI.
Last edited by raj_singh on 09 Sep 2008 00:48, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 09 Sep 2008 00:40

Sean wrote:
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20080064509

Zardari to visit China, negotiate nuclear deal.
Asif Ali Zardari, the new president of Pakistan, will visit China next week to negotiate a nuclear deal similar to the one between India and the US, an official said on Monday.

"Pakistan is already in touch with China for the nuclear deal to meet its energy crisis and the talks would start during Zardari's visit," an official said.

Zardari, who was elected president on Saturday, will be sworn in on Tuesday and has already announced that his first foreign visit will be to China. The official said that under the proposed deal, China will supply nuclear material to Pakistan to meet its energy crisis.

"This has nothing to do with the US-India deal but that has certainly provided us a way out to meet our energy crisis," he said.

"Of course it will take time to finalise the deal after going through its details but the initial talks would start during Zardari's visit and a memorandum of understanding (MoU) may be signed for reaching an agreement," said the official.



I think its a new arms transfer deal in the works. India sholud watch-out and not be caught napping as on previous such transfers of nukes and delivery vehicles that imapcted the Indian esecurity scene.

PRC has always transferred strategic weapons under Bhutto family leadership.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 09 Sep 2008 00:49

If FBRs and Th Breeders of the 3rd Stage are to be in the "strategic" side, then, their success (measured in terms of the timeliness of project completion to meet the "projected" electricity demand) would depend upon how lax the implementation of the NSG "Waiver" is.


The plan states that FBRs will be under strat side until they mature. Then it will depend on India how many will be built on civilian side. BUT, for civilian side FBRs, India EXPECTS outside reprocessed fuel - which is ENR, a bone of contention (which is why India wanted nothing against ENR from NSG).

Whatever, India will control separation plan.

On Chicom, India must put foot down.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Gerard » 09 Sep 2008 00:51

Mr. Sibal also addressed concerns over the risk of disrupted fuel supply in the event of a nuclear test. Indian reactors would be put under safeguards in phases till 2014 only when they were assured of fuel supply with a strategic reserve in place, he said.

“We will build up strategic reserves and if and when in the future, any tests are required to be done because of a changed geopolitical situation at that point of time, we will have a strategic reserve of fuel so that there is no problem of disruption.”


Perhaps not the most appropriate thing to say in the presence of the German minister

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 09 Sep 2008 00:55

On the contrary the German official can go back and tell his govt of the GOI's assertion of supreme national interests.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 09 Sep 2008 01:10

India has to revisit J-18. Just because the US Congress, a Mira Kamdar and NPAs do not agree, it does not mean that the regional strategic envs AND the unfair global restrictions evaporate. The question is how soon is too early.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby ShauryaT » 09 Sep 2008 01:17

A Hyde-bound waiver?

There are two nuclear futures for India -- a straight bargain to get imported fuel and a more complex onePartha MukhopadhyayHave we accepted a Hydebound waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)? Are we protected from the repercussions of a nuclear test? Is our energy problem over? The answer, as usual, is: it depends.

The 123 Agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards and now the NSG waiver are all consciously ambiguous about certain events. This ambiguity permits various countries to interpret them differently. How they will act if such an event occurs will not be determined by their interpretation today, but by the geopolitical circumstances of that future. That, in turn, depends on India’s future relationship with key supplier countries, determined, in part, by how strong and self-reliant we become economically and politically.

India’s approach at NSG bodes ill. Do we see the waiver as something that the US obtained for us, or one that we acquired with the help of the US? If, as the Left apprehends, our foreign policy is too aligned and dependent on the US, we will lose our ability to independently manoeuvre with other countries, were it to abandon us.

The US state department, in its response to the declaratory sections of the Hyde Act, 102(12) and 103(6)(a)—which says that other NSG group members should be persuaded to terminate cooperation if the US does so—pointed to the NSG guidelines, which says that suppliers should agree on “possible action, which could include termination of nuclear transfers”. It is widely speculated that its letter was made public by Congressman Berman to align the NSG waiver with the Hyde Act. He may have succeeded—to an extent.
Do we see the waiver as something the US obtained for us or one we acquired with help of the US?

The India-specific IAEA Safeguards Agreement states in effect that “taking into account (that India may take corrective measures...in the event of disruption of foreign fuel supplies), India and the Agency have agreed...” to its provisions. If the purported text of the NSG waiver is accurate, it is similar in structure. It says: “Based on the...(steps that India has voluntarily taken with respect to continuing its unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing), Participating Governments...” are adopting the requisite waivers. One interpretation can certainly be that if the unilateral moratorium ends, the waivers can be suspended.

 If we do conduct a nuclear explosive test, a right that we retain, there is little ambiguity that the US state department considers that it would have the right to stop cooperation and do so immediately, without the one-year consultation period specified in Article 14(1) of the 123 Agreement, if it determines that “a mutually acceptable resolution of outstanding issues... cannot be achieved through consultations”, as specified in Article 14(2). Our protections against such a situation are unspecified “corrective measures” that would again depend on the geopolitics of that time, and a “strategic (lifetime) reserve” for our reactors. Look at this closely. There are two reactor types. One uses non-enriched uranium and the other low-enriched uranium. So, first, to stockpile fuel for the latter, India will depend on international enrichment facilities till we can grow our domestic capacity. Second, every 1,000MW reactor consumes about 120 tonnes of uranium ore annually. Even a 20-year supply for four reactors a year, for 10 years (an expansion slower than that of France, when it increased its nuclear share from 8% to 75% over 1973 to 1990), would mean 10,000 tonnes of uranium each year; about 25% of current global production. Even discounting its effect on uranium prices, which have already risen 10-fold in this decade, this is unlikely to be physically available, especially when China and other countries are also moving to nuclear energy. Building lifetime reserves will thus take some time and in the interim, India’s legal right to test may remain ineffective. Plug in prices from Arun_S calculations...

There are two nuclear futures for India. The first is a straight bargain. In return for abjuring testing, we can expand our nuclear electricity supply by relying on imported fuel. But, like our current unsustainable dependence on imported oil, which at least has an open market, this will not solve our energy problem. Known reserves of uranium cannot sustain a nuclear renaissance simultaneously in the US, India and China, even till 2050.

The second is more complex. It leverages the end of our nuclear technology isolation to develop our indigenous three-stage thorium-based programme. In this, we use the interim window to generate sufficient starter fuel, such as plutonium, to sustainably grow the programme and make our thorium technology commercially feasible. Thorium based nuclear power will be substantially longer lived than uranium, but the energy possibilities will become truly limitless if we succeed in developing a true breeder reactor. This research is the most advanced in India, because other countries focused on weapons-related uranium, but it still has a few critical gaps. If we increase our R&D investment in thorium as much as we ramp up our nuclear energy share, these gaps can be filled, especially with international collaboration.

In recent testimony before the US Senate, Siegfried Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, the home of the Manhattan Project, stated: “It may well be that today we limit ourselves by not having full access to India’s nuclear technology developments.” Can we have similar confidence in our research and provide it unstinted support? In the final analysis, it is this that will determine who this weekend’s development benefits more—us or the US.

Partha Mukhopadhyay is with the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi. Comment at theirview@livemint.com

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby samuel » 09 Sep 2008 01:33

To emphasize, ShauryaT's citation above...
The second is more complex. It leverages the end of our nuclear technology isolation to develop our indigenous three-stage thorium-based programme. In this, we use the interim window to generate sufficient starter fuel, such as plutonium, to sustainably grow the programme and make our thorium technology commercially feasible. Thorium based nuclear power will be substantially longer lived than uranium, but the energy possibilities will become truly limitless if we succeed in developing a true breeder reactor. This research is the most advanced in India, because other countries focused on weapons-related uranium, but it still has a few critical gaps. If we increase our R&D investment in thorium as much as we ramp up our nuclear energy share, these gaps can be filled, especially with international collaboration.

In recent testimony before the US Senate, Siegfried Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, the home of the Manhattan Project, stated: “It may well be that today we limit ourselves by not having full access to India’s nuclear technology developments.” Can we have similar confidence in our research and provide it unstinted support? In the final analysis, it is this that will determine who this weekend’s development benefits more—us or the US.


How does the present and proposed series of deals help achieve the suggested goal. Who has laid out steps of that plan?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Gerard » 09 Sep 2008 01:38

Ending India nuclear trade ban seen bullish for uranium
"I think they will start looking at the spot market and then they will start signing long-term deals pretty quickly," a uranium trader said.
"People have been expecting 2-3 million pounds to be purchased ... it could be enough to push the price up," the trader said.

In 2007, turnover in the spot market is estimated by traders to around 10-15 million pounds.

The price of spot uranium hit a record of $136 per pound in June 2007, skyrocketing from just $7 in 2000 due to a revival of interest in nuclear energy.

But since its all-time high the spot price has slipped to $64.50 with little interest from investors and utilities.

"There is still plenty of material out there on the spot market but India is important in the medium and long term," said another uranium trader.

It was uncertain how much inventory India would like to build up to feed its reactors, currently consuming around 500 tonnes per year or 1.3 million pounds, according to a Macquarie Bank presentation.

The investment bank estimated incremental demand in the first 12 months would be in the 1,000-1,500 tonnes uranium (2.6-3.9 million pounds) range.
It was uncertain how much inventory India would like to build up to feed its reactors, currently consuming around 500 tonnes per year or 1.3 million pounds, according to a Macquarie Bank presentation.


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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Gerard » 09 Sep 2008 01:54


John Snow
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby John Snow » 09 Sep 2008 03:11

So when are we ordering the CNC and SPMs

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby putnanja » 09 Sep 2008 03:19

No other deals till US ratifies 123: Pranab

NEW DELHI, SEPTEMBER 8: India on Monday made it clear that it would wait for the US Congress to ratify the 123 Agreement between India and US, before it enters into any civilian nuclear cooperation agreements with other countries. This statement assumes significance since France, which has already concluded its negotiations with the Indian Government on a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, is waiting to sign the pact. Russia is also keen to enter into an agreement at the earliest.

“As far as the procedure is concerned, now we shall have to wait for the ratification of the 123 Agreement between India and the US,” External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on the sidelines of a Health Ministry function in Delhi. “...the approval by the Board of Governors of the IAEA for the India-specific safeguards agreement and the NSG waiver are the passports to enter into international nuclear trade,” he said.

“Through the bilateral agreements with the supplying countries, we will actually enter into the trade. After the ratification of the US Congress this process will begin,” the minister added. He said the US Congress requires two documents — the India-specific safeguards agreement approved by the Board of Governors of the IAEA and amendment to NSG guidelines providing waiver to India — to ratify the 123 Agreement. India would be able to enter bilateral agreements with other countries after these procedures are completed, Mukherjee said.

India’s position stems from the fact that the US had gone all out on getting the NSG waiver after three days of tough negotiations with non-proliferation countries, most importantly China. US President George W Bush’s call to Chinese president Hu Jintao was one of the crucial efforts, which made the NSG sceptic countries agree to the India-specific exemption.

Both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee have expressed their gratitude, in public statements, to the US — especially President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice —for their “untiring efforts” in getting India the required exemption from the NSG.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 09 Sep 2008 03:46

A double edged statement as it ensures that the US doesnt think India is running with the NSG waiveR and at same time puts the kabash on the other 123s with France and Russia. Can also be interpeted by US Admin as if they (Congress) dont approve then there are others willing to take up the offer.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 09 Sep 2008 03:55

I think more of the latter.
Let tax paying businesses talk to its representatives in US Congress. Did I hear it right someplace: "No taxation without representation"?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Sean » 09 Sep 2008 14:31

Shouldn't India begin the process of buying fuel from spot market, and explore long term contracts with countries other than Australia and Canada before 123 is approved by US Congress?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Sean » 09 Sep 2008 14:36

samuel wrote:To emphasize, ShauryaT's citation above...
In this, we use the interim window to generate sufficient starter fuel, such as plutonium, to sustainably grow the programme and make our thorium technology commercially feasible. Thorium based nuclear power will be substantially longer lived than uranium, but the energy possibilities will become truly limitless if we succeed in developing a true breeder reactor. This research is the most advanced in India, because other countries focused on weapons-related uranium, but it still has a few critical gaps. If we increase our R&D investment in thorium as much as we ramp up our nuclear energy share, these gaps can be filled, especially with international collaboration. [/b]


How does the present and proposed series of deals help achieve the suggested goal. Who has laid out steps of that plan?

The 3-stage program has to be a priority item, and must receive adequate funding, as it will provide leverage with NSG, and enable India to join NSG/NPT as a NWS.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby SaraLax » 09 Sep 2008 15:24

Sean wrote:Shouldn't India begin the process of buying fuel from spot market, and explore long term contracts with countries other than Australia and Canada before 123 is approved by US Congress?


Not sure if the buying will begin before the 123 is approved by US but there is a related news article on that line and some months back i read in BusinessWorld India mag about a Marwari businessman having bagged the rights to mine and recover Uranium from one of the African nations (looks like Niger based on this article).

Govt starts uranium drill, Nuclear victory prompts action
JAYANTA ROY CHOWDHURY & R. SURYAMURTHY

New Delhi, Sept. 8: The government has lined up a string of initiatives to increase the availability of uranium, which is used in the generation of nuclear power as well as in nuclear weapons.

These initiatives will complement the government’s effort to obtain the mineral globally, for which it got permission from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

Besides sourcing more uranium from the country, the government plans to pick up equity in uranium mines abroad, as it has been doing in oil and gas.

Sources said Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited was planning to invest $1.2 billion in a Canadian uranium mine.

India is also in talks with the African countries of Gabon, Niger and Namibia to pick up equity in mines there. In exchange of assured supplies, the Indian government may enter into civilian and military co-operation agreements with those countries.

The sources said the Indian company, Taurian Resources, had recently won a contract in Niger giving it exclusive rights to mine over 3,000 square kilometres in an area estimated to hold at least 30,000 tonnes of uranium. As Niger is not a member of the NSG, India will find it easy to access the mineral once the mines become operational.

Namibia, another non-NSG country, which holds about eight to nine per cent of the global uranium reserves, has shown interest in entering into a long-term arrangement.

Officials said Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) would play a key role in ensuring uranium security.

The government plans to ask ONGC to buy equity stakes in uranium mines abroad and allow the PSU to join hands with Uranium Corporation of India Limited for domestic operations.

Within the country, the government wants to more than double the current confirmed uranium reserves of 61,000 tonnes. Exploration work is being carried out in Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, Karnataka and Meghalaya.

State-run Uranium Corporation and Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd are working on a Rs 1,100-crore uranium-mining-cum-proces-sing project in Nalgonda district of Andhra Pradesh, which is likely to be operational sometime next year.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 09 Sep 2008 15:35

Another reason India would not want to sign bilateral agreements with Russia, France and others before the 123 Agreement is simply because then these agreements would become public, and it will be known that these bilateral agreements do not include any termination on nuclear testing clauses.

POTUS will lose face that it was not able to include such a condition in the NSG Waiver, and has allowed others to get a more favorable agreement commercially. If POTUS defends itself and claims it was not possible, then COTUS who have to pass the 123 Agreement will lose face, that they did not pass a more favorable Hyde Act, letting out their anger at POTUS and not moving on 123 Agreement. That has just as much to do with domestic politics in USA, than with the symbolism of India signing the first bilateral agreement with the prime mover of the deal first or for that matter commercial considerations of first mover advantage.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 09 Sep 2008 15:51

X-Posting here -

Increased Nuclear Energy Demand Boosts Namibia by Brigitte Weidlich: Inter Press Services

WINDHOEK, Sep 9 (IPS) - The worldwide scramble for energy sources due to dwindling fossil fuel reserves has placed renewed emphasis on nuclear energy as solution for future needs. As a result, Namibia in south-western Africa is experiencing a uranium boom.

With around 3,800 tons of annual production, Namibia is the world’s sixth largest uranium producer. Its delivery of seven percent of world uranium production has led to the country being wooed by big powers that wish to secure supplies for their nuclear energy expansion plans.

Spot prices doubled in 2007, reaching 136 dollars per pound but recently levelling at around 82 dollars a pound.

Currently over 40 foreign companies obtained exclusive prospecting licences (EPLs) from Namibia’s mines and energy ministry (MME). Two uranium mines are operational and 12 more are in the pipeline.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Lalmohan » 09 Sep 2008 15:55

India played a role through the UN in Namibia's emergence into freedom... we must capitalise on that goodwill

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 09 Sep 2008 16:01

Australia rules out uranium export by P. S. Suryanarayana: Hindu

Australia has ruled out selling uranium to India even after its success in securing an exemption from the export guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

Having played a positive and constructive role in New Delhi’s favour at the latest NSG meeting, Australia on Monday left an option open for considering the issue of selling dual-use knowhow and materials to India for its civil nuclear energy projects.

Foreign Minister Stephen Smith told The Hindu here that there was, however, no possibility of Canberra entering into a safeguards agreement with New Delhi on the uranium issue.

Speaking at the Changi airport, prior to his departure for Chennai, where he will begin a five-day visit to India, Mr. Smith said the ruling Australian Labour Party’s long-standing position was not to export uranium to countries that were not parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). India was not a member of the NPT, and he did not propose to ask India to sign the treaty.

Implying that it was not a question of Australia not thinking out of the NPT box, he spoke warmly about the whole gamut of bilateral relations with India.


Any bilateral agreement at this point of time, would come laden with conditionalities, especially like return of unused fuel on nuclear testing etc. We should wait another few years, before going for an agreement with Australia when John Howard's team is back. In the mean time, India can start investing in all the mining companies active in Australia, before China takes them over.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 09 Sep 2008 16:05

Yes I LOVE Namibia. It was always my favorite country! :mrgreen:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Philip » 09 Sep 2008 16:08

Crawl when asked to bend
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/stor ... AA84nwcg==

Seema Mustafa09 Sep 2008

story is not over. And the story, regardless of the euphoric media, is no longer in the passage of the nuclear deal as that has become a foregone conclusion. If a government is willing to bend over backwards, accept any clause, any tail pulling, any compromise, there is no international deal that will fall through the world over.

The reason why some deals do not make it is because these tamper with a nation’s sovereignty, dignity and pride and are not equitable in their impact. When a government is willing to swallow all that a nation stands for, even the most difficult pacts will go through.

The story has long since shifted from the nuclear deal to the UPA government’s ability to sink as low as it possibly can for a divisive deal that compromises the country’s future. The hype is such that the NSG waiver is being interpreted as a major victory, an end to India’s nuclear isolation, of having reached the ‘high table’ if not by sitting on the chair, then at least as one television commentator put it excitedly, by sitting on the stool.

The story will unravel in the coming weeks and months. The first indications will come from the small print in the NSG waiver.

The second will come from the visit of Defence Minister A K Antony to the US where the Indian Air Force is currently in the ‘final run’ of the Red Flag Exercises that the US earlier only carried out with Nato member nations. India is now a proud participant having paid Rs 80 crores for the exercises, where the air force of all the participating nations basically learn to work together through a series of complicated exercises.

The third will come from the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to the US in September,where he will no doubt be privately entertained by the lameduck, highly unpopular US President George W Bush.

What is going to be the cost of sitting on a stool, or even a chair, at the high table? Most of this has already been answered.

Some of it will be answered by the NSG waiver when it is finally released, read and understood.

This cannot remain a secret document, as was the letter written to the late chairman of the House Foreign Affairs committee Tom Lantos by the State Department.

In this, 45 key questions were answered in what amounts to a policy declaration by the Bush administration on the nuclear deal.

The Indian government has claimed it had no idea about this, surprising really, as everyone concerned with the nuclear deal or writing on the nuclear deal was aware of its existence and some of the contents. The government should have asked the US administration for the document that was neither secret nor classified. The US claims that New Delhi knew the details. The government continues to deny this, hoping that the generated vagueness will work to its advantage.

The letter establishes what has been written by India’s nuclear scientists and strategic experts over and over again, spoken of by the Left and Opposition leaders, and discussed threadbare in Parliament. The letter released now by the US foreign affairs committee of the House of Representatives clearly shows that 1) if India conducts a nuclear test, the US will cut off nuclear trade and take back all the nuclear materials it has supplied, including fuel,2) there will be no guarantees of perpetual fuel supply; 3) there will be no transfer of sensitive technology and 4) the Hyde Act and the US Atomic Energy Act will be as binding on this nuclear deal as the 123 agreement.

Pointing this out P K Iyengar, former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, says, “we find ourselves in the following impossible situation. If we go ahead with the nuclear deal and by some miracle we even manage to import nuclear power at competitive prices (many years from now) we simultaneously destroy our strategic programme as well as put ourselves at the mercy of the nuclear cartel. How can this deal be in the national interest?” The Hyde Act that the US has to implement as the enabling legislation for the nuclear deal further shackles India’s foreign policy options to those ‘congruent’ with the US. It is amazing how not a single diplomat, present or former ecstatically supporting the deal, has stopped to ask what the US is getting from the nuclear deal.

India has been already aligning its foreign policy with that of the US. The vote against Iran at the IAEA, the complete silence on the terrible developments in Iraq, the support for the Karzai government with little word about the regrouping of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the China threat, the reluctance to endorse the Maoists in Nepal, in short the inability to think and act for ourselves. In defence, we have been diverting procurements away from Russia to Israel in what is yet another major strategic shift.

The UPA government has taken the decision to push India out of the non-aligned camp into the US embrace. The nuclear deal is the symbolic and strategic step towards this. US State department officials have said as much, pointing towards the significance of the nuclear deal for the new relationship in South Asia, now that Pakistan has become defunct as a strategic partner, and for bringing India into the non-proliferation regime without signing the NTPT or the CTBT.

In doing so, Singh and his cronies have ensured 1) India does not test, as the price of testing will be too much in terms of just dollars for this country to bear. It is a fact that India does not have a credible deterrent, and by refusing to define this, the government has abdicated responsibility at this stage; 2) India no longer has independent control over its nuclear assets, with the US Congress now having a bilateral say in determining the nature of the civilian nuclear programme; 3) the nuclear energy generated — after 20 years — will meet only five to six per cent of the total national requirement, and will be phenomenally expensive and 4) the larger agreement on defence, agriculture, knowledge, democracy that was signed between Singh and Bush will now be acclerated. One of the goals is to draw India into the Proliferation Security Initiative, and make it a firm partner for implementing US plans in Asia.

The reasons for India’s opposition to the nuclear deal have not been diluted with the NSG waiver. Rather these have been strengthened, and the loud bleating of supporters cannot take away from the fact that the government has surrendered strategic space to another country. And what makes it worse, there was no need to.

A defence officer was so right when he said the other day, “we are in a position today to dictate our terms and conditions,we are such a huge market, everyone is coming here, but somehow we end up accepting everything others dictate.” Why? Because our Prime Minister is not able to show us the way, and the party in power believes it’s better to crawl when asked to bend

seemamustafa@gmail.com

About the author:

Seema Mustafa

is a commentator on

political affairs

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 09 Sep 2008 16:18

Pak not on par with India, so no nuke deal: US: Agencies

The US on Tuesday ruled out the possibility of entering into a civil nuclear deal with Pakistan, rejecting apparent demands by China in this regard.

"I don't think there is one," US Ambassador David C Mulford said when asked about the possibility of Washington having a civil nuclear deal with Islamabad on the lines of Indo-US agreement.

Ever since negotiations started on the Indo-US nuclear deal in July 2005, Pakistan has been pleading for a similar agreement citing parity with India.

China has lately started taking up Pakistan's case in a veiled manner.

At the meeting of Nuclear Suppliers Group in Vienna last week to consider waiver for India, a Chinese representative had said the 45-nation grouping should address similar ‘aspirations’ of other countries too.

Though Mulford did not elaborate, the US feels that Pakistan cannot be treated on par with India in the civil nuclear field considering its bad track record in this area.

Pakistan is known to be a source of nuclear proliferation, with even its former chief scientist A Q Khan being found guilty of indulging in this act.

To a question on China's negative role at the NSG, Mulford refused to comment, merely saying ‘In the end, they did the right thing’.

China, which had assured India that it will not create problems for the waiver at NSG, had tried to block the initiative during the grouping's meeting in Vienna last week before coming around on the issue.


THIS is what China gets out of the Indian Nuclear Deal. It can as the only interested country make some noises about getting an NSG Waiver for Pakistan also every couple of months. China can feed on Pakistan's sense of inferiority and insecurity by playing the role of the protector of Pakistan's interests. On the other hand, it does not have to raise a finger for that, as it is totally hopeless.

China earns Pakistan's loyalty and US earns's Pakistan's scorn for impeding Pakistan's nuclear development. China gets more leverage in Pakistan and US loses leverage as this issue becomes a big H&D issue.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby BSR Murthy » 09 Sep 2008 16:35

No uranium to India will cost Australia billions
The Kevin Rudd government's decision not to sell uranium to India would cost Australia billions of dollars, the opposition Liberal Party said Tuesday.
"Australia's relationship with India will be severely damaged if the Rudd government does not commit to selling Australian uranium to India, costing Australia billions of dollars," said the party's foreign affairs spokesperson Andrew Robb as Foreign Minister Stephen Smith arrives in New Delhi.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby SaraLax » 09 Sep 2008 18:07

SaraLax wrote:...............and some months back i read in BusinessWorld India mag about a Marwari businessman having bagged the rights to mine and recover Uranium from one of the African nations (looks like Niger based on this article).

Govt starts uranium drill, Nuclear victory prompts action
JAYANTA ROY CHOWDHURY & R. SURYAMURTHY
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Sources said Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited was planning to invest $1.2 billion in a Canadian uranium mine.

India is also in talks with the African countries of Gabon, Niger and Namibia to pick up equity in mines there. In exchange of assured supplies, the Indian government may enter into civilian and military co-operation agreements with those countries.

The sources said the Indian company, Taurian Resources, had recently won a contract in Niger giving it exclusive rights to mine over 3,000 square kilometres in an area estimated to hold at least 30,000 tonnes of uranium. As Niger is not a member of the NSG, India will find it easy to access the mineral once the mines become operational.
.
.
State-run Uranium Corporation and Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd are working on a Rs 1,100-crore uranium-mining-cum-proces-sing project in Nalgonda district of Andhra Pradesh, which is likely to be operational sometime next year.


News article (dated Aug 29 2007) from Chindu on the Taurian Resources gaining rights in Niger....

Indian firm acquires uranium mining rights in Niger
.
.
Taurian Resources Private Limited, Mumbai, a Rs. 300-crore company, has recently won a contract which gives it exclusive rights over 3,000 sq. km. of the Sahara Desert known to be rich in deposits of uranium. According to the estimates of the Managing Director of the company, Sachin Bajla, the area is likely to hold at least 30,000 tonnes of uranium which, he says, “should be enough to meet India’s requirement for the next 1,000 years” Against huge odds, Taurian won a permit to search for uranium in the Arlit region of Niger for an undisclosed amount. Mr. Bajla says till he relinquishes nobody can take away this area earmarked exclusively for his company. He received the permit from Mohamed Abdoulahi, Minister of Mines and Energy for Niger, and also had an audience with Mamadou Tandja, President of Niger.

Anil Kakodkar, chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission “welcomed” the development but said that as of now the Government had little role to play as it was a “bold forward looking private venture.”
.
.
Mr. Bajla says, “I would be happy to meet India’s uranium requirement if the Government so desires.” He is also looking for Government support for his huge venture, having written about this to the Prime Minister.

Mr. Bajla says that to fully exploit the potential, an investment of at least $6-7 billion will be required. He hopes to raise money from the international market by listing his company on the London Stock Exchange. If uranium is indeed found by Taurian, the Government of Niger will also hold part rights over the sale of the mineral.
.
.


A Chindu article from Jan 2008 related to Govt looking at Africa for Uranium

Business World India article on Mr.Sachin Bajla of Taurian Resources

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 09 Sep 2008 18:12

Germany Grudgingly Accepts Landmark Nuclear Deal with India: Deutsche Welle

German Foreign Ministry spokesman Jens Ploetner said this week Germany -- as chair of the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group, which controls the export and sale of nuclear technology -- had tried to balance conflicting interests during tense negotiations that led to the landmark agreement.

"There were several countries that put critical questions to India, but also the United States, about how this arrangement is compatible with the common goal of nuclear non-proliferation," Ploetner told a news conference on Monday, Sept 8.

"It is not an ideal solution. The negotiations were very difficult and we cannot say that we could not have imagined something better."

Jostling for contracts has begun

Meanwhile, the US forecasts that India's growing energy needs mean it will have to build at least eight new atomic energy plants by 2012. Britain, France and Russia have already joined the US in jostling for lucrative contracts.

And during the celebration of the 50th anniversary of a German-supported technical university earlier this week in Chennai, India, German Technology Minister Annette Schavan was warmly greeted by her Indian counterpart Kipal Sibal.

"We have to see the next 50 years of cooperation in the light of the events of this past weekend," Sibal said at the celebration. In cooperation with Germany, India could find out "which components and what know-how is important for us," he added

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby SaraLax » 09 Sep 2008 18:26

Maharashtra, TN will benefit first
NEW DELHI:
.
The Manmohan Singh government has already finalised plans to buy six nuclear reactors from France for Maharashtra and four from Russia for Tamil Nadu.

A government source acquainted with the plans said that the state-owned Nuclear Power Corporation of India has almost completed the process of acquiring land for the Maharashtra project in the Ratnagiri area. In Tamil Nadu, four new plants will be set up in Koodankulam where two reactors from Russia have already been commissioned and two more are under construction.

Together, they will boost the states’ energy supply by 11,000 MW. Maharashtra will get 7,000 MW from six reactors, four of 1,000 MW each and two of 1,500 MW while Tamil Nadu will get 4,000 MW from four light water Russian reactors.

The source revealed that the plans were put in place even before the NSG waiver came through. In fact, a delegation from Areva, France’s leading manufacturer of pressurised reactors, had visited Maharashtra early this year to inspect the sites. Now all that remains is to ink the agreement.

This is likely after prime minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to France on his way back from the UN general assembly meet at the end of September. He is expected to sign the long-delayed French equivalent of the Indo-US civil nuclear energy cooperation agreement during his Paris visit, paving the way for purchases from Areva.

.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 09 Sep 2008 18:27

Uranium: India looks to Canada, Kazakhstan by Y P Rajesh: Indian Express

MUMBAI, SEPTEMBER 8: With Australia continuing to act pricey about exporting uranium to India despite the green signal from the NSG, India’s nuclear establishment has started setting its sights on other sources. Canada and Kazakhstan are emerging as possible key suppliers.

“There is too much politics over uranium in Australia,” one official said, referring to Smith’s Labour party government reversing a decision by the previous Liberal-National coalition to waive the NPT requirement. “We have to look at other sources and we have some countries in mind. Now that the waiver is in place we can start making a shortlist and open negotiations.”

Although Australia has the world’s largest reserves of uranium, Canada produces the most and has a 23 per cent global share while Australia has 21 per cent followed by Kazakhstan at 16 per cent, nuclear experts said.

However, it is Kazakhstan that has emerged as a dark horse as little has been known about the country’s strength in uranium production. It produced about 6,600 tonnes of uranium in 2007 compared to about 9,500 by Canada and 8,600 by Australia. It plans to raise production to 15,000 tonnes by 2010 and 30,000 by 2018 to become the world’s largest producer. India’s estimated production in 2007, on the other hand, was a measly 270 tonnes.

Russia, Japan and China have already rushed to build ties with the decade-old Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan’s state-owned nuclear company, while global nuclear majors such as Areva, Westinghouse, Sumitomo and Kansai are involved in uranium mining and other aspects of the fuel cycle.

While New Delhi’s political and trade relations with Astana have been excellent, there was no point until now to try and open formal talks over uranium supplies as Kazakhstan is not only a NSG member but is also a signatory of the NPT, sources said. “It has always been at the back of our mind but we can now go ahead and do it,” one top official said.

Niger and Namibia are also likely to be on a shortlist of countries that New Delhi plans to tap.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 09 Sep 2008 18:44

China's betrayal at the NSG by M.D. Nalapat: UPI Asia Online

Manipal, India — Officials in New Delhi are now uncertain as to who runs China. They had been assured by both President Hu Jintao as well as Prime Minister Wen Jiabao that China would back the U.S. move for a waiver on prohibition of nuclear trade with India. However, to the surprise of those who had thought that the duo had control over China's administrative machinery, the country's delegation at the September 4-6 waiver parleys at the Nuclear Suppliers Group meeting in Vienna were active in encouraging some European countries and New Zealand to block the move.

In closed-door sessions, the Chinese delegation was open in its opposition to the waiver, demanding that a similar deal ought to be offered to any state that sought to develop its nuclear energy sector, including Pakistan and Iran. When it became clear by the afternoon of September 5 that the ceaseless diplomatic pressure being exerted by the Bush administration was grinding down the resistance of Ireland, Austria, New Zealand and Switzerland, the Chinese team sought an indefinite postponement of the proceedings "in order to study the draft of the waiver text". When this was shot down, they walked out of the hall, refusing to be present when the NSG unanimously approved the India-US nuclear deal

Even the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, usually too terrified to utter more than a few anodyne phrases at any provocation, summoned up hitherto non-existent reserves of courage to complain to the visiting Chinese foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, about the lack of good faith shown in Vienna by the Chinese delegation. Predictably, on the lines of similar statements concerning the immense Chinese assistance to North Korea and Pakistan in their nuclear and missile programs, Yang ignored the evidence to the contrary and blandly asserted that his country had adopted a "constructive" line in Vienna, a stand that was immediately condemned as a lie by the Indian media.

Clearly, by showing that the word of President Hu and Premier Wen mean nothing, China has lost what little trust it had among policy circles in India. Barring the Communist parties, which are unabashed in defending Beijing's interest against all comers, all other political groups have condemned the Chinese effort to scuttle the NSG waiver at the Vienna meeting. However, they got no help from the International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohammed El-Baradei, who has from the start been an enthusiastic supporter of getting India into the NSG tent rather than watching it remain on the outside, with the potential to proliferate and abandon its consistent adherence to international norms since 1974.

Interestingly, despite Moscow's sharp differences with the U.S., the Russian delegation proved as enthusiastic as the U.S., France and the United Kingdom in backing the deal, to the surprise of the Chinese, who had warned them in private that passage of the deal would strengthen Indo-U.S. ties and therefore by implication dilute the numerous strategic linkages between Russia and India. President Medvedev arrives by year-end in New Delhi, and it is expected that both sides will sign a "123" agreement similar to that which has been agreed upon by the U.S. Next in line is France, which expects its own nuclear deal with India to be signed before the middle of 2009.

The one remaining hurdle is the U.S. Congress, where a small group of Europeanists are livid at a third world country being given the privileges of those belonging to the developed world. Led by Representative Howard Berman, this anti-India faction can be expected to block congressional approval of the India-U.S. 123 agreement, to silent cheers from China.

Should Berman and his friends succeed, the U.S. would be the loser because it would thereby block itself from trade with India, leaving a clear field for Russia and France. In this election year, it is unlikely that the Democratic Party will jeopardize the 1.3 million votes of the Indian-American community in the U.S. by opposing the deal. Should the Democrats rally behind Berman and torpedo the deal, Indian-Americans are likely to listen more carefully to the numerous pro-India statements coming out of the McCain campaign, although at present six out of ten favor Barack Obama.

By trying to incite other countries to block the nuclear trade waiver while allowing itself to pass the NSG unanimously, China has earned the contempt of the robust (and largely India-phobic) non-proliferation community with which it had built up significant (and manifold) links over the four decades of their existence. :rotfl: Beijing has also angered New Delhi showing that its word cannot be taken seriously including a promise by President Hu. :shock:

Indeed, some analysts are worried that the behavior of the Chinese delegation at the NSG indicates that the Jiang Zemin group still controls the Foreign Ministry and perhaps even the PLA. For it is unknown that this group was implacably opposed to allowing a nuclear waiver for India, while the Hu Jintao group took a more pragmatic line that stressed the need for compromise as a way of ensuring better ties with China's giant neighbor to the south. In Vienna, the Jiang Zemin followers carried the day to the detriment of Sino-Indian relations. :eek:

Even the communist parties in India are silent, wary of the negative public reaction if they once again attempt to whitewash Beijing's numerous actions directed against the emergence of India. :lol: Clearly, the Chinese Communist Party is rattled by the new tiger :twisted: , and would like to hobble India before it joins China on the mountaintop.

--

(Professor M.D. Nalapat is vice-chair of the Manipal Advanced Research Group, UNESCO Peace Chair, and professor of geopolitics at Manipal University. ©Copyright M.D. Nalapat.)

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby sum » 09 Sep 2008 18:57

Even the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, usually too terrified to utter more than a few anodyne phrases at any provocation, summoned up hitherto non-existent reserves of courage to complain to the visiting Chinese foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, about the lack of good faith shown in Vienna by the Chinese delegation.

:rotfl:
How can we be a player on the world stage with such a "terrified to take on biggies" attitude?

In a show on DD, former diplomat arundhati Ghose (who vetoed the CTBT in 96) was saying that the country went into a tizzy over the "not so big" issue of vetoing of Iran two years back whereas we claim for a place in the security council where such 2-3 decisions will have to be taken daily!!!

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Nitesh » 09 Sep 2008 19:30


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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Suppiah » 09 Sep 2008 19:46

Strange things are going on about this whole China affair. We only have MKN's statement through reliable channels. The rest are all speculation. What is clear is China never came out officially and clearly in favor before it was approved and its statement after approval reeks of sour grapes syndrome.

When asked just after he landed in Cal the Chinese FM said 'Wait for Monday'. But then on Monday the story line was 'We never opposed' - why wait if that is the case? This blatant lie could have been uttered in Cal itself? As common sense tell us, you dont need to plan, prepare and practice if all you are saying is the truth?!

Interestingly the Stalinist pro-China yellow press gave prominent coverage to this lie blacking out all other aspects of the story such as the so-called demarche issued, reports of Chinese obstruction tactics etc.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Lalmohan » 09 Sep 2008 19:56

RajeshA wrote:Yes I LOVE Namibia. It was always my favorite country! :mrgreen:


Well, the 1000' sand dunes at Sessereim at dawn are one of my favourite places on the planet - and so is Fish River canyon :)


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