India nuclear news and discussion

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 22 Sep 2008 22:41

Nuke deal may not be done during PM's trip: Report
NDTV Correspondent
Monday, September 22, 2008, (Paris, New Delhi)
According to latest reports India is hopeful but not certain that Indo-US nuclear deal will be done during PM's trip to the United States.

However, sources have told NDTV that Americans have assured India that they are trying to push nuke deal through in the next three days.

India is not going to renegotiate the 123 Agreement for operationalising the Indo-US civil nuclear deal even if it doesn't happen this time and the lame-duck session of US Congress now assured because of financial crisis.

Sources have further said that American financial meltdown could impact nuclear deal and the US Congress' preoccupation with economy may hasten which will slow down passage of N-deal.

Earlier, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh left for France and the US on Monday; the developments will of course, be most keenly watched for whether the nuclear deal is finally inked or not.

US diplomats have told the Indian government that they are working overtime to push the deal through.

The Prime Minister will meet with US President George W Bush at the White House on the September 25, that's three days from now making it a very tight race to the finish line for the nuclear deal.

On the American assertion that fuel supply assurances are "political not legal", diplomatic sources say the understanding is that International law will kick in if the agreement is violated.

The Prime Minister could meet the two Presidential candidates - John McCain and Barack Obama - if schedules permit. He is expected to have telephonic conversations with both.

The other big highlight of the trip will be the meeting with Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari, the first direct contact between the two leaders.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 23 Sep 2008 00:08

The US Congress has decided to extend the session beyond the 26th - to tackle the economic situation. I do not think, however, that the 123 would be dealt with.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 23 Sep 2008 01:48

Oooops.

N-deal in Senate tomorrow


Posted: Sep 22, 2008 at 2342 hrs IST
Updated: Sep 22, 2008 at 2342 hrs IST

With only five legislative days left before the Congress is scheduled to adjourn, the Indo-US nuclear deal is literally down to the wires, with the first real opportunity to push the initiative to Senate floor expected to arise on Tuesday.

The big question doing the rounds is whether the Bush Administration will be able to persuade the lawmakers to complete the process on time.

But what could be seen as a positive development for India, there are indications that given the economic stabilisation package that is being worked on, the Congress may not formally adjourn on September 26 but extend for a week till October 3.

No one in the administration or the Capitol Hill is willing to speculate on when or how the civilian nuclear initiative resolution is going to get the Congressional nod. But one of the first substantive moves could come on Tuesday at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee mark-up when lawmakers on the panel could decide the push the initiative to the Senate floor.

Some legislative aides and experts are taking the position that the civilian nuclear agreement may be attached to an omnibus 'continuing resolution' on appropriations.

One of the top items now meriting huge attention in the administration and in Congress is the massive financial bailout package to stabilise the markets. This package will out to be first hammered out between the House and the Senate and agreeable to the White House. Given the financial markets mess, indications are thatCongress may extend the session to October 3.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Gerard » 23 Sep 2008 04:51


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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 23 Sep 2008 14:04

Manmohan leaves for U.S., France : Hindu

The Prime Minister will also meet leaders of Italy, the U.K. and Namibia.


Yeahhhh...! Let's cut the yellow cake! :D

One should note:

India took the lead in allowing an Embassy of SWAPO in India. SWAPO (South West African People's Organization) fought for Namibia's independence. The First President of Namibia, Sam Nujoma, had a good relationship with Indira Gandhi and paid a visit to India.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 23 Sep 2008 18:16

N-deal with India to support 2.5 lakh high-tech jobs in US: PTI

America's premier trade body has projected that the Indo-US nuclear deal could revitalise the US nuclear industry and support 2.5 lakh high-tech jobs in the country, much higher than the estimate of the Bush Administration.

Lobbying lawmakers to approve the 123 Agreement before the close of the 110th Congress, the world's largest business federation, the US Chamber of Commerce, says that if American companies are allowed to compete in India, even modestly, it could support 2.5 lakh high-tech jobs.

"If US companies are allowed to compete, a modest share of that business could support 250,000 high-tech American jobs," R Bruce Josten Executive Vice President of the apex body representing more than three million businesses, said in a recent letter to the US Congressmen.

With India's 34-year nuclear isolation now history, the opportunity for US companies today is tremendous, with an expected 30,000 to 60,000 Mw of new nuclear generating capacity by 2030, representing a potential $150 billion of new investment, Josten said.


The figure of 250,000 high tech jobs is far too low. I believe 400% times 400%, that the nuclear reactors in India can support a 1000 times that number, that makes 250 million jobs. So much so, that there will be no more people left for any other jobs, because all waitresses and actresses will be having high tech nuclear jobs imported from India. That will prove to be calamitous and the American economy will sink along with all the American Diners. Poor America! :(( :(( :((

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby svinayak » 23 Sep 2008 20:26




Sitting in the front room of his suburban house in Delhi, Shri K. Subrahmanyam, the doyen of Indian strategic thinkers, sips some tea, coughs a little – and remembers the moment he decided that India must develop nuclear weapons. “It was on a visit to America in 1968,” he recalls. “I saw all the top strategic thinkers. Kissinger, who was still at Harvard at the time, Schelling; it was after that, that I decided we must have the bomb. As a matter of national survival.”

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2008 21:15

Wish he had gone earlier say in 1960. It would have lent a dose of realism to Indian polity. Its not for nothing that I called him Bhisma Pitamaha which has now entered the discourse in India.

So from the initial decision under Mrs Gandhi to drafting the doctrine under NDA he was the Alpha and the Omega of the Indian deterrent.

HAK was at Harvard till the 1968 Nixon election.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 23 Sep 2008 21:58

Lobbying for passing 123 Agreement on Capitol Hill

Nuclear crunch for U.S.-India by Lisa Curtis: Washington Times

Indian strategic affairs analyst K. Subramanyiamrecently noted China was admitted into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in the early 1990s (despite a spotty nonproliferation record) to integrate it into the nonproliferation regime as a stakeholder. "What the promoters of the NPT and the NSG are now attempting is to make the nonproliferation regime totally international by bringing India into it," he argues.

If the deal lapses and is left for the next administration, it could take several months before the new Congress considers it. By then, India will be heading into its own national elections, casting more uncertainty over the deal's fate. It's time to finalize this landmark initiative.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 23 Sep 2008 22:10

Howard Berman is again trying to tie up the 123 Agreement in a thousand knots in the House.

Lawmaker proposal may complicate India nuclear deal by Arshad Mohammed: Reuters India

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Congress would have more influence over civil nuclear cooperation agreements under a legislative proposal that could complicate the U.S. push to clinch a nuclear deal with India this year, sources familiar with the matter said.

House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Howard Berman last week proposed changing U.S. law so any future agreements would become effective only if Congress approves them.

Such agreements now typically go into effect unless Congress rejects them during a 60-day period. As a result, the law is now tilted in favor of the agreements going through.

Berman asked for the change in the Atomic Energy Act in exchange for speeding up a vote on the U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation agreement. The fuel and technology deal would help India meet rising energy demand without aggravating climate change and open a market worth billions of dollars.

The White House wants Congress to approve the deal, which it views as the cornerstone of a new strategic partnership with India, to hand U.S. President George W. Bush a foreign policy victory before he leaves office on Jan. 20.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 23 Sep 2008 22:15

Oh that wonderful scope creep................

With India's 34-year nuclear isolation now history, the opportunity for US companies today is tremendous, with an expected 30,000 to 60,000 Mw of new nuclear generating capacity by 2030, representing a potential $150 billion of new investment, Josten said.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 23 Sep 2008 22:19

N-deal formally listed on Senate panel business agenda by Sridhar Krishnaswami : PTI

Washington, Sept 23 (PTI) Amid intense efforts to push the Indo-US nuclear deal, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee listed the agreement on the formal agenda of its business meeting today under a revised schedule.

The US-India agreement is mentioned as the ninth item on the legislative agenda for the panel with the agenda including marking up treaties and several nominations.


There is uncertainty whether the agreement can be inked when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh meets President George W Bush in Washington on September 25.

After the Senate nod, the approval of the House of Representatives needs to be secured before the two countries can sign the agreement.

"An original bill to approve the United States-India Agreement for Cooperation on Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy, and for other purposes," the Senate Committee's notification said.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby sraj » 23 Sep 2008 22:33

Indian strategic affairs analyst K. Subramanyiam recently noted China was admitted into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in the early 1990s (despite a spotty nonproliferation record) to integrate it into the nonproliferation regime as a stakeholder. "What the promoters of the NPT and the NSG are now attempting is to make the nonproliferation regime totally international by bringing India into it," he argues.

China actually formally applied to join NSG on Jan 26, 2004 and was admitted sometime in mid-2004 -- despite all of their proliferation throughout the previous decade. The US sanctioned a Chinese entity for "various exports of concern" as late as April, 2004, but this did not stop them from supporting China's NSG membership.

This link provides a lot of interesting detail.

A priceless nugget:
The Chairman [of NSG] requested that members provide their written responses on China’s application by April 30, “with a view to China’s participation in the 2004 NSG Plenary in Sweden.”

Thirty members have replied to the Chairman. As of midday Monday, Vienna time, the Chairman had received nine positive responses from South Korea, New Zealand, Switzerland, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Turkey, Russia and the United States.

I guess New Zealand's famous qualms about nuclear weapons only focus on trying to push India around, with no concerns at all about Chinese proliferation to every Tom, Dick, and Harry in this world......... :roll:

Shameless and hypocritical people!

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby sraj » 24 Sep 2008 00:29

It's official: PM won't ink N-deal with Bush
Senior officials, however, made it clear that even if the 123 agreement was passed, it would not be signed by the prime minister during his Washington meeting with President Bush at the Oval office in the White House on September 25 at 5.10 pm.

After the meeting there would be a 'working dinner' between the two leaders from 6 to 7 pm in the Old Family Dining Room, the officials added.

Clearing misapprehensions, it was made clear that prime ministers do not sign such agreements.

Officials said they would wait for the agreement to go through before modalities of how and when the actual signing takes place is worked out.

Good move.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby A Arun » 24 Sep 2008 01:26

US senate committee has cleared the Indo-US nuclear deal by a vote of 19-2. Deal now goes to the floor of the US senate.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 24 Sep 2008 01:33

Good show.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Baljeet » 24 Sep 2008 02:01

Sraj
Pakis love their goats, kiwis love their sheep. They share so much together. :rotfl:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby AnantD » 24 Sep 2008 02:06

US senate committee has cleared the Indo-US nuclear deal by a vote of 19-2. Deal now goes to the floor of the US senate.


Great news, curious to know just who are the people voting against it. They should get some recognition in the future here on BR. :P

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby ShauryaT » 24 Sep 2008 02:34

ramana wrote:Wish he had gone earlier say in 1960. It would have lent a dose of realism to Indian polity. Its not for nothing that I called him Bhisma Pitamaha which has now entered the discourse in India.

So from the initial decision under Mrs Gandhi to drafting the doctrine under NDA he was the Alpha and the Omega of the Indian deterrent.

HAK was at Harvard till the 1968 Nixon election.
ramana: There is a report that, Shastri gave the order to prepare for a test but after his death, this order was not followed through by subsequent PMO, i.e. IG, until, later events changed IG's views.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 24 Sep 2008 02:38

What LBS did was to authorise the research into the design which was not there before. Perkovich has a huge chapter but the bottom line is LBS gave the go ahead to get the design work started. Before that it was all concept studies. Something called fast neutron flux reactor or some such eupehmism.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby nkumar » 24 Sep 2008 02:54

sraj wrote:
A priceless nugget:
The Chairman [of NSG] requested that members provide their written responses on China’s application by April 30, “with a view to China’s participation in the 2004 NSG Plenary in Sweden.”

Thirty members have replied to the Chairman. As of midday Monday, Vienna time, the Chairman had received nine positive responses from South Korea, New Zealand, Switzerland, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Turkey, Russia and the United States.

I guess New Zealand's famous qualms about nuclear weapons only focus on trying to push India around, with no concerns at all about Chinese proliferation to every Tom, Dick, and Harry in this world......... :roll:

Shameless and hypocritical people!


Just goes to show that the New Zealand's balls were massaged to play the role they played for India's waiver.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby sanjaykumar » 24 Sep 2008 03:06

I demand some Brahmos strikes on the some of those sheep pens (of course an Indian will have to warn the sheep first).

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Bharati » 24 Sep 2008 05:16

Senate clears N-deal as PM lands in US
It was not immediately clear who were the two lawmakers who voted against it, but at the SFRC hearing last week, Senators Barbara Boxer of California and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin took the strongest stand against the deal.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby vsudhir » 24 Sep 2008 05:33


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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby amit_s » 24 Sep 2008 11:42


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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 24 Sep 2008 13:12



N-deal: India finds 'change in language' unacceptable

History (The Hyde Act process) repeating itself with subtle changes.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 24 Sep 2008 13:38

The NPAs have been busy working in the background.

N-deal: India finds 'change in language' unacceptable by Aziz Hanifa: rediff.com

But apparently India finds it unacceptable because of a change in language from the 123 Agreement it negotiated with the US and also a more punitive measure if it tests, which was not contained even in the Hyde Act.

Indian Ambassador Ronen Sen immediately after the Committee's approval of its bill, called leading Indian-American activists -- and it is understood also the Government of India's lobbyists -- expressed India's misgivings about the bill that was passed and said it would be difficult for India to accept the change of language and spoke of the significant issues it raised.

Compromise in this regard was also obviously going to be untenable, particularly since Prime Minister Manmohan Singh himself had drawn a line in the sand and asserted on arrival in Frankfurt en route to the US that the 123 Agreement was non-negotiable.


And, subsection (b) of Section 102, titled Declarations of Policy Relating to Transfer of Nuclear Equipment, Materials, and Technology to India, which Sen had made clear was most offensive to India said, "Pursuant to section 103(a)(6) of the Henry J Hyde United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006, in the event that nuclear transfers to India are suspended or terminated pursuant to title I of such Act, the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, or any other United States law, it is the policy of the United States to seek to prevent the transfer to India of nuclear equipment, materials, or technology from other participating governments in the Nuclear Suppliers Group or from any other source."

The word 'prevent,' had replaced the earlier 'discourage,' hence adding on a more punitive component in the case of India testing.


Sub-section (2) also eliminated India being the beneficiary of any additional material, when it stated that "pursuant to section 103(b)(10) of the Henry J Hyde United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006, any nuclear power reactor fuel reserve provided to the Government of India in safeguarded civilian nuclear facilities should be commensurate with reasonable reactor operating requirements."


And, in reinforcing the Agreement's conformity with the Hyde Act, the legislation stated in sub-section (d) titled Rule of Construction, that "nothing in the Agreement shall be construed to supersede the legal requirements of the Henry J Hyde United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006 or the Atomic Energy Act of 1954."


All looks frustrating, but the only solution to showing these Congressmen the middle finger is ....

1) Give only two reactors to USA.
2) If they want more, get US nuclear industry to get the US Laws changed
3) Build strategic nuclear reserves from a variety of sources: Russia, France, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Namibia, Niger, ..., which need not be returned upon nuclear testing.
4) Buy and operate own mines in all the uranium-producing countries.
5) Build economy to a level and beyond, where the American economy itself becomes dependent on Indian market
6) Build a military-industrial complex in which USA and Russia have a stake
7) Become permanent member of UNSC in due time.
8) Conduct nuclear testing as and when we please, and show every Congressman the middle finger

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Dileep » 24 Sep 2008 13:41

Whatever happened to the UP/DOWN voting?

This leaves no choice other than to say "thank you for everything, but no, thanks".

Would the PM do that? Maybe not.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 24 Sep 2008 13:58

Dileep wrote:Whatever happened to the UP/DOWN voting?

This leaves no choice other than to say "thank you for everything, but no, thanks".

Would the PM do that? Maybe not.


It is up-down voting as far as 123 Agreement is concerned, however there is nothing stopping the Senate and perhaps the House of Representatives to pass some Legislation, elaborating on US policy, as long as it doesn't run contrary to 123 Agreement.

Since the 123 Agreement tried to be vague on many issues to suit both parties, there is sufficient room for specifying American interpretations in a different peace of Legislation.

The Hyde Act and the United States-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Nonproliferation Enhancement Act are the two toast bread slices in which the 123 Agreement is sandwiched, the prior and the posterior leashing of US nuclear trade with India.

However what these cartoons on Capitol Hill tend to overlook is, that the NSG Waiver has made much of what they are trying to do meaningless. They are simply putting more and more shackles on US Nuclear Industry profiting from Indian market.

In another 10-15 years, US would have lost control over India and Asia.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 24 Sep 2008 14:10

EU-India Nuclear Energy Co-operation: Prospects and Challenges pdf by Dr Lawrence Sáez: ENCARI

Table of Contents
  • 1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………5
  • 2. India’s economic and demographic trends and its impact on projected energy use……...15
  • 3. India’s nuclear programme………………………………………………………………………..27
  • 4. Potential areas for nuclear energy collaboration between India and the EU………………42
  • 5. Regulatory and institutional roadblocks to EU-India nuclear energy collaboration……...57
  • 6.Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………….......……72

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby harbans » 24 Sep 2008 14:46

1) Give only two reactors to USA.

Why 2 then? Why should India sign a 123 with the US if it has no legal meaning or sanctity to the US? India should put that question to US itself. Walk out pretending deep hurt.

This gem pointed out by Sraj ji should be highlighted in the media..

As of midday Monday, Vienna time, the Chairman had received nine positive responses from South Korea, New Zealand, Switzerland, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Turkey, Russia and the United States.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 24 Sep 2008 15:44

harbans wrote:1) Give only two reactors to USA.

Why 2 then? Why should India sign a 123 with the US if it has no legal meaning or sanctity to the US? India should put that question to US itself. Walk out pretending deep hurt.


Harbans Ji,

as I said, it has been a very frustrating journey...

The voluntary unilateral nuclear testing moratorium has become a necklace of rocks around our necks. I pointed out earlier that the process of enactment of Hyde Act was flawed completely. India should have lobbied harder to get the wording and substance correct. We passed on that opportunity, while MMS kept on saying we have to wait for the process to come to an end, before jumping to conclusions.

Once Hyde Act was enacted, that was the second time, the Indian Govt could have walked away, stating incompatibility with J-18. We did not do that.

The third opportunity rose, when Howard Berman made State Dept Letter to Tom Lantos public. Watering down of legal commitments down to simply Presidential assurances and giving commitments in bad faith were reason enough to stop the charade. It did not happen, as it was on the eve of the NSG Plenary Meeting in Vienna on August 21-22.

Now is the fourth opportunity to walk away, now when the US Congress is putting into Law, how US is supposed to interpret the 123 Agreement, which goes against the assurances made by the PM and his team in Parliament. More specifically this concerns the following aspects:

1. In case of nuclear testing by India, the Senate says the US Administration should not only 'discourage' that other countries proceed with their cooperation with India, but rather should 'actively prevent' such cooperation.

2. USA should ensure, that India does not build a strategic fuel reserve to survive the effects of any sanctions in the aftermath of Indian testing, but rather the size of such a reserve should remain small enough to cover only the operational needs.

3. 123 Agreement would not supersede any aspects of Hyde Law even after it has been passed.

All three fly in the face of the whole hedging strategy that MMS has built up to counter the consequences of Hyde Act.

So the question arises, would India walk away now at this fourth U-turn, now that India has become obliged to US because of the NSG Waiver. I certainly doubt MMS can show that spine.

The only thing we can do is to enact an Indian Law underlining India's interpretation of the 123 Agreement, regarding American withdrawal due to nuclear testing by India

a. conditions to be fulfilled by the country demanding return of materials
b. negotiation over compensation
c. total stop to military cooperation with USA
d. withdrawal from MTCR, FMCT, Container Security Initiative, Proliferation Security Initiative, etc.

However it will be difficult for MMS to walk away from the Deal at this late stage. So one might as well punish the American nuclear industry by imposing an upper limit on nuclear business with them as payback for the NSG Waiver.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby prashanth » 24 Sep 2008 15:54

Yeah. Allow GE/Westinghouse to construct and operate 2 reactors on BOOT basis. Pay them so long as the reactors operate. If US pulls the plug, ask them to dismantle their reactors and take their 'technology, fuel and parts' back to their country. And don't pay them a cent from then.

As for reactors from other countries, start building strategic fuel reserves from the start of construction. Don't buy fuel from US.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby ramdas » 24 Sep 2008 16:54

This deal has turned out to be a nuisance. Given that nobody will assure fuel supplies in the event that we test, the best thing is to limit reactor imports to around 10000MW. As for energy, coal is the way to go. In the worst case, stopping 10000MW means stopping 6-7% of our power generation - a loss that can bemade up in a year if we are genuinely building power generation capacity through other means.

So, after importing around 10000MW, we should test.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby fanne » 24 Sep 2008 18:19

Ramdas sir, weigh on what we have given up in bargain, we have thrown open 14 of the 21 reactors to international inspection (some of these 14 were already in the list). We have seriously compromised our newclear option on the defense side. Both Manmohan and Sonia have fulfilled their role of castarating India (I have a firm believe that they were western plants).
rgds,
fanne

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby prashanth » 24 Sep 2008 19:29

fanne wrote:Ramdas sir, weigh on what we have given up in bargain, we have thrown open 14 of the 21 reactors to international inspection (some of these 14 were already in the list). We have seriously compromised our newclear option on the defense side. Both Manmohan and Sonia have fulfilled their role of castarating India (I have a firm believe that they were western plants).
rgds,
fanne


Im not sure, but I think I have read earlier that perpetual safeguards are applicable only if perpetual fuel supply is guaranteed.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby renukb » 24 Sep 2008 21:11

India open for $80 billion in nuclear business

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D93D2TLG0.htm

Indian officials tend to go a little wiggly at the phrase "U.S.-India civilian nuclear cooperation agreement."

It sounds so . . . foreboding. Why not, they reason, call it India's clean energy deal with the rest of the world? Or a great trade deal?

"Why do you give it this ballistic name?" said Commerce Minister Kamal Nath. "It's an energy agreement."

Even as the U.S. Congress considers overturning three decades of policy by allowing the transfer of atomic fuel and technology to India in return for international inspections of its civilian--but not military-- nuclear reactors, officials here point out that the global gates of nuclear trade with India are now open.

Whether or not the U.S. decides to allow its companies to bid for business, they say, India will get its uranium.

"If a deal with Congress doesn't happen, we will have business with other countries. So simple," said SK Malhotra, a spokesman for India's Department of Atomic Energy.

India finalized bilateral nuclear trade agreements with Russia and France in January, but the government has held out on implementing them until a U.S. deal goes forward, said Shreyans Kumar Jain, chairman of India's state-run Nuclear Power Corp. Ltd., which runs all 17 of the nation's nuclear reactors.

After his U.S. trip, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh heads to France, where he has been widely expected to ink the deal with France.

On Sept. 6, the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group made a historic exception for India, overturning a 34-year-old nuclear trade ban despite the fact that India has refused to sign nonproliferation agreements.

Opponents fear India will use its new access to build nuclear weapons. Proponents point to the nation's enormous energy needs and say the NSG waiver has saved the world from a 1.6 billion ton cloud of coal fire which would otherwise have roared up from India in 2050.

Today, India gets just 3 percent of its energy--about 4100 megawatts-- from nuclear power. By 2032 the government plans to quadruple total generating capacity, to 700 gigawatts, with nuclear accounting for 63,000 megawatts.

That adds up to about 40 new nuclear reactors, worth some US$80 billion, according to Jain.


The limiting factor on India's nuclear expansion has been access to uranium. Despite an aggressive hunt in basins, thrusts, and folds across the country, known domestic deposits will support only 10,000 megawatts of nuclear capacity.

"All reactors are going to be sourced from foreign vendors and tied to fuel supply agreements," Jain said.


Jain says Nuclear Power Corp. hopes to finalize contracts with General Electric Co., Westinghouse Electric Co., France's Areva group, and Russia's Rosatom State Nuclear Energy Corp. to build a first round of eight reactors starting in 2009.

The government, he added, plans to take a 30 percent equity stake in the new reactors, and raise the rest in debt. He said he's not worried about the global credit freeze, as large domestic players, like the Life Insurance Corporation of India, Power Finance Corp. Ltd., and domestic banks can fund the initial build-out. "Beyond that, we have to go for external commercial borrowing," he said.

Rosatom is already helping India build two nuclear reactors, under an agreement that predates Russia's NSG membership.

Areva has also been pro-active in pursuing business, with CEO Anne Lauvergeon joining French President Nicolas Sarkozy on his January state visit, according to three government officials.

Ron Somers, president of U.S.-India Business Council, has been leading lobbying efforts for a coalition that includes companies from Wal-mart Stores Inc, FedEx Express, AT&T, General Electric Co. and New York Life Insurance Company to Westinghouse Electric Co., Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin Corp., and Chevron.

Efforts, he said, have kicked into high gear since the Sept. 6 NSG waiver.

If the deal doesn't go through Congress, he said, "we'll be the only one shut out."

"It's like sitting on our hands watching a football game, not being able to play," he added.

GE helped build India's first nuclear reactor in the 1960s, and today GE would love to rekindle that relationship.

"It's a US$30 billion-plus market in India. There's a huge opportunity for a company like GE," said Kishore Jayaraman, regional head of GE operations in India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. "We have been pushing for it."

But he added that a deal is still far off.

"We have not had any detailed discussions," he said, adding that while GE has been in close talks with the Indian government, the company cannot, by law, enter into advanced discussions absent a green light from Congress.

Moreover, India must change its domestic laws to set liability limits for private companies operating in the nuclear sector before private players like GE can build any reactors.

"We are hopeful we'll get something," Jayaraman said. "But it's just a hope at this stage."

A lot of Indian companies are also hopeful.

Currently, private companies cannot operate nuclear reactors, but the separation of India's civilian and military nuclear programs could pave the way for deeper private sector involvement on the civilian side, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, a top official in India's Planning Commission, said in a recent interview.

Jain, of the Nuclear Power Corp., said a raft of companies, including the Tata Group, Reliance Power Ltd., GMR Infrastructure Ltd., GVK Industries Ltd., the Essar Group, and the state-run National Thermal Power Corp. have expressed interest in running nuclear power plants in the future.

Parts suppliers and builders, like Hindustan Construction Co., Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd., Larsen &Toubro Ltd., Gammon India Ltd. and Godrej & Boyce Mfg. Co. Ltd. could also benefit from India's nuclear build-out.

Deepak Morada, a spokesman for Larsen & Toubro, India's largest builder, said he thinks the capital and manufacturing requirements needed to help 400 million Indians who now live by candlelight switch on the lights, are simply too massive for the government to handle alone.

"We are ready to participate," he said.

kshirin
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby kshirin » 24 Sep 2008 21:46

http://www.timesnow.tv/Newsdtls.aspx?NewsID=16617

As PM lands in US, Senate clears N-deal 9/24/2008 7:47:44 AM

In a major positive development for the Indo-US nuclear agreement, the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday (September 23), overwhelmingly approved the deal, paving the way for its entry into the full Senate.

The lawmakers in the crucial Senate panel adopted the agreement by a vote of 19-2. Senator Russell Feingold, Wisconsin Democrat and Barbara Boxer, California Democrat, voted against the deal.

Democratic Presidential nominee Senator Barack Obama and the Vice Presidental candidate Senator Joseph Biden, currently the Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, voted by proxies to move the agreement to the Senate floor.

The Senate panel rejected by a 15-4 vote an amendent sought by Senator Feingold, asking the administration to enter into agreement with the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) that there will be no transfers of enrichment and reprocessing technology to any country that is not a party to nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The four Senators who voted for the Feingold Amendment were all Democrats-- Senators Feingold, Boxer, Robert Casey of Pennsylvania and James Webb of Virginia, the last three by proxies.

"The President may not exchange diplomatic notes pursuant to Article 16(1) of the 5 Agreement unless the President certifies to the appropriate congressional committees that the NSG has amended its guidelines to prohibit the transfer of technology related to the enrichment of uranium and reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel to any state that is not a party to the NPT," the amendment by Feingold said.

"I am happy that the Committee voted to send this historic treaty by a vote of 19 to 2," Ranking Republican Senator and a major backer of the civil nuclear initiative, Richard Lugar of Indiana, said after the Senate Panel's proceedings.

"This was after good discussion and after an amendment by Senator Feingold, which was rejected. I would simply say that good work has come by with the State Department working with Democratic and Republican staff to fashion language that could pass today," Lugar added.

Both at the time of the debate on the Feingold's amendment and after it was rejected, Senator Lugar stressed that the Wisconsin Democrat is indeed concerned with non-proliferation problems. "My point was that while we are trying to discuss the general issue we should not deny the specific merit of the India-US Agreement. And we would be pushing that into the background trying to resolve another general non-proliferation issue," Lugar said.
"So that is why it was suggested that a letter might go to the Secretary of State and the President commending some of the virtues of non-proliferation without disturbing the specific vote we are having on India and the US," Lugar said.

In the course of debating the amendment, Lugar maintained that the NSG has "already spoken" on the matter. Supporting his colleagues who spoke out against the Feingold's Amendment, the Senator from Massachusetts John Kerry maintained that the best thing would be to submit a letter to the administration. "What is important to recognise is that the IAEA Director-General, Russia, France and Britain, are supportive of the current structure," Kerry added. Lugar maintained that negotiations between Republican and Democratic staffers had proceeded "sensibly". The Acting Chair of the Senate Panel Senator Christopher Dodd reminded his colleagues that the panel had a "very good hearing" on the agreement last week and that he supported the Agreement "because of the importance of drawing India in".
The Chair of the Panel, Senator Joseph Biden, who has given strong backing to the deal because of campaign pre-occupations, issued a statement welcoming the approval of his Committee of the Indo-US accord. "Showing commitment to peaceful nuclear cooperation with India, I am pleased that the Foreign Relations Committee has approved legislation today," Biden said. "Sen Lugar and the other Members of this Committee have worked hard to forge a bipartisan compromise on this important and complex issue," he said. "Enactment of this bill will help the Indo-US relationship grow, while advancing Indias ability to meet its energy needs in a way that fits within the cooperation framework, Congress has worked so hard to establish."

"Todays committee passage is significant, but several steps remain before this bill becomes law. I hope Congress can complete the job in the few days remaining before adjournment," Biden added.

The US-India agreement was mentioned as the ninth item on the legislative agenda for the panel. The deal now goes to the full Senate.

After the Senate nod, the approval of the House of Representatives needs to be secured before the two countries can sign the agreement. There is still no formal word from the House Foreign Affairs Committee chaired by California Democrat Howard Berman, a known scpetic of the deal, on how the agreement is going to move there.

Top Congressional aides in the House have long maintained that the legislation to waive the 30-day rule would have to be addressed.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who arrived in New York, had earlier said there is still uncertainty over the deal being approved by US Congress before his meeting with US President George W Bush on Thursday. Everything depends on US Congress to give quick approval to the deal, Singh said adding, he is hopeful of it.

(With inputs from PTI)

Arun_S
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 24 Sep 2008 21:48

fanne wrote:Ramdas sir, weigh on what we have given up in bargain, we have thrown open 14 of the 21 reactors to international inspection (some of these 14 were already in the list). We have seriously compromised our newclear option on the defense side. Both Manmohan and Sonia have fulfilled their role of castarating India (I have a firm believe that they were western plants).
rgds,
fanne

Fanne sahib: "Iti katha": End of the holy story, take the parsadam and go home.
It is monday and its all quite on the western front, the sucker in this drama (i.e. India) is left with the pot of nightsoil on its head. I hope the apologists who preached "have Faith", will keep peace forever and renounce the world to the seclusion of forest.

prashanth wrote:Im not sure, but I think I have read earlier that perpetual safeguards are applicable only if perpetual fuel supply is guaranteed.

The KLPD was there for every one to see in the last 12 months (except the most rabid optimist), why the surprise? Prime Minister's commitment to the Parliament and nation can take a hike, as we saw in his actions last few months.

Idiocity in full manifestation, dancing the dirty dance.

samuel
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Posts: 818
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 08:52

Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Postby samuel » 24 Sep 2008 21:54

Barah mahiney to kya, ye to BL se bhi pehle, Hyding-L pe dhoka tha. Ab Khada kaise hua, yeh mujhe nahi samajh ata.


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