India nuclear news and discussion

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 02 Oct 2008 11:06

It is not cheering for America only......it is celebration of victory of good over evil. We managed to get this despite commies,chinis and other barbarians that live in organized communities.From now on India will not be mentioned along with Nkorea,Bakistan. As it was mentioned

From famine-basket-case to superpower in one generation, without violent revolutions, or denying rights to the poorest of our citizens.

Congratulations to fellow Brites.

amit · Post by **amit** » 02 Oct 2008 11:22

p_saggu wrote: And thanks to Manmohan Singh, he got similar brickbats during the initial three years or so after the economic reforms were launched, but everyone grudgingly came around.

Boss, a very good post I really enjoyed reading it.

Your point, which I highlighted here, is something that I've been saying on and off over the past few months on this thread. Remember Gurumurthy and the Swadeshi Jagaran Manch? If PVNR had not put his full weight behind MMS there was every chance the liberalization exercise would have come out stillborn.

As he did with the liberalization Manmohan kept his focus on the nuclear deal. He ensured that the naysayers both in India and abroad did not get a chance to overwhelm the deal.

PS: In last avatar of this thread I had speculated that maybe 10 years from now BRF, taking the benefit of hindsight, would say MMS did a good job with the N-deal just as folks now say PVNR was a good leader and Indira Gandhi was the strongest PM India had (remember both were mostly lampooned when they were in power).

I got scolded for saying such an "outrageous" thing.

I now see maybe my prediction of 10 years was way too conservative.

Three cheers to the Indian team which negotiated this deal!

Manas · Post by **Manas** » 02 Oct 2008 11:28

This is truly a momentous occasion. I believe in the counter value doctrine (as opposed to counter force) and hence conclude that we have a sufficient deterrent to counter our immediate adversaries and do not need further tests. With counter value a 100KT yield is good enough to wipe out a decent sized city due to primary blast damage + secondary radiation fallout.

Regardless of which school of thought one belongs to i.e. "we should test ? we should not test ? we need 500KT/1MT validation etc" we have to recognize the significance of the last decade since POK II.

1) Vajpayee's visionary and bold approach to conduct POK-II at great economic costs smashed the self imposed strategic handcuffs that India had chained itself to. The longer we wait the higher the economic costs due to sanctions. This bold move laid the foundation for India to elbow itself more strategic room and the world to recognize that India means business.

2) The timing was perfect - just before India embarked on a decade long 8%+ growth with the GDP going from approx $500B to $1Trillion+.

3) Slowly but surely the India-Pakistan impulsive bracket has changed to India-China bracket. TSP is almost on the verge of getting bracketed with the axis of evil with regular SF raids by uncle. Who would have thought that Munna would descend to such abysmal depths ?

4) With the defacto NWS recognition the final step to true global power status is the permanent membership to the UNSC. Slowly but surely, it will come India's way despite the roadblocks that China and other sundry city size countries will try to put up.

Onto to solving the Barbara Boxer puzzle. I think she will be hard to displace but Indian Americans in California should send her a strong message by opposing her reelection. I heard back from my local congress person and the other senator from California in response to my message regarding the bail out bill but not from senator Boxer. Wouldn't be surprised if she is taking a idelogical position without a finger on the pulse of her constituents and the world around her.

pradeepe · Post by **pradeepe** » 02 Oct 2008 11:38

And thanks to Manmohan Singh, he got similar brickbats during the initial three years or so after the economic reforms were launched, but everyone grudgingly came around.

The man is tenacious. My respect and kudos to him. He doesn't entirely satisfy my jingo needs. His world view differs quite a bit from my generation. He's old enough to be my grandfather, so no surprises. And who knows how my world view will be when I am his age.

Now if he will only show the same tenacity agains terror. IMHO he has immense staying power, but not dynamism. So he's of the type to set course, grit it, bend against the wind and trudge forward. But the commie/maoist/islamist terror virus requires feints, dashes and all kinds of chankian strategies.

All of this doesn't mean I won't call out things I dont like (of particular note is how the PMO handled the initial scicom resistance to the deal), but my respects for what he has done so far. I so wish he wasnt part of the Kangress which I love to hate

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 02 Oct 2008 11:52

Barbara boxer will surely be replace, as her term ends in 2010, At the same time arnold will be looking for a job.I have heard arnold will make a run for senate seat..She is very much vulnerable going against arnold to keep her senate seat in 2010.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 Oct 2008 12:16

If one is willing to sell one's own (and the nation's) soul,anything will be passed by a foreign power ! Read the Rice report and PK Iyengar's article "True colours of the Nuclear deal",which in detail exposes the flaws in the deal.Simply put,the three main facts are given below. main

Excerpts from PKI's article:

(1) The 123 Agreement is subject to the provisions of the Hyde Act and the Atomic Energy Act, and does not supersede them.

(2) In the event of a disruption of fuel supply from the US, the Americans will not help arrange for fuel from another country .

(3) There will be no transfer of enrichment technology, and even permission for reprocessing imported fuel may be denied.

http://www.hindu.com/2008/10/02/stories ... 820100.htm

Nuclear test will have serious consequences
It includes cut-off of U.S. cooperation: Rice
Condoleezza Rice

Washington: Faced with killer amendments tabled by two Democrats in the U.S. Senate, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Wednesday that a nuclear test by India would result in the “most serious consequences,” including automatic cut-off of U.S. cooperation as well as a number of other sanctions.

As the Senate began a debate on the legislation that will approve the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal, Ms. Rice wrote a letter, urging Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to go through with the process without amendments, saying the administration would prefer a “clean legislation.”

“I understand that some Senators have questions about the impact of an Indian nuclear test on this initiative. We believe the Indian government intends to uphold the continuation of the nuclear testing moratorium it affirmed to the United States in 2005 and reiterated to the broader international community as recently as September 5, 2008,” she said.

The Senate was originally expected to consider the Dorgan and Bingaman amendments pertaining to implications in the event of India conducting a nuclear test. But on the floor, while taking amendments, North Dakota Senator Byron Dorgan said the two amendments would be merged. If adopted, it would ensure that the U.S. ceased nuclear cooperation with India in the event of its detonating a nuclear weapon.

Appreciating Mr. Reid’s consideration of the Bill “within such an extraordinary time frame,” Ms. Rice said they would not be asking for such exceptional action if they did not believe it was necessary to complete an initiative on which both the administration and Congress had worked very hard and on a thoroughly bi-partisan basis since 2005.

“Let me reassure you that an Indian test, as I have testified publicly, would result in most serious consequences. Existing U.S. law would require automatic cut-off of cooperation, as well as a number of other sanctions, if India were to test. After 60 continuous session days, the President could waive the termination of cooperation if he determined that the cut-off would be ‘seriously prejudicial’ to U.S. non-proliferation objectives or ‘otherwise jeopardise the common defence and security’,” Mr. Rice told Senator Reid.

She said encouraging India’s sustained commitment to its moratorium on nuclear testing would be important to the strategic partnership Washington sought to build with New Delhi. Congress and the administration had carefully addressed testing concerns in the Hyde Act, the U.S.-India 123 Agreement, and the testimony of administration officials, she said. — PTI

http://epaper.newindpress.com/NE/NE/200 ... ndex.shtml
Published on Oct 02 2008,Page 10

Opinion - True colours of the N-deal

The US House of Representatives has passed a bill (H. R. 7081) that approves the 123 Agreement, but which is contradictory to the assurance given by the Prime Min ister to the nation. An identical version is before the US Senate for voting. Even as late as September 26, 2008, the Prime Minster was seeking an agreement that would ‘satisfy India’. This has not come to pass, and it will be interesting to see how the Indian government and the Indian media will ‘spin’ this into a victory for India. The Indian side is supposed to have been unhappy with the language, but what is worrisome is the content and compulsions of the Bill. Even the title of the Bill, ‘United States-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Nonproliferation Enhancement Act’, makes it clear that they seek to press their non-proliferation agenda. The bill makes a number of things explicitly clear, and reveals the true colours of the nuclear deal.
(1) The 123 Agreement is subject to the provisions of the Hyde Act and the Atomic Energy Act, and does not supersede them.

This is said, in so many words, twice in the bill. Section 101 (page 3, lines 16-21) says that: “The Agreement shall be subject to the provisions of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, the Henry J Hyde … Act of 2006, and any other applicable United States law.”Section 102 (page 6, lines 8-12) reiterates that: “Nothing in the Agreement shall be construed to supersede the legal requirements of the Henry J Hyde … Act of 2006 or the Atomic Energy Act of 1954.” Therefore there is now no question of differences in the ‘interpretation’ of the 123 Agreement. Irrespective of what we think we are bound by, the Americans have made it abundantly clear that the Hyde Act and the Atomic Energy Act bind them, and the 123 Agreement does not supersede either of them. If we conduct a test it is now abundantly clear that, as per the provisions of the Hyde Act and the Atomic Energy Act, it is the end of the nuclear deal.

(2) In the event of a disruption of fuel supply from the US, the Americans will not help arrange for fuel from another country .

Article 5 (b-iv) of the 123 Agreement says that in the event of fuel disruption the US will help India get fuel from ‘friendly supplier countries’. But it seems that the Congress is having none of this. Section 102 (page 5, lines 4-12) of the bill explicitly states that in the event of fuel disruption, not only will the US not help arrange for fuel from other countries, but it will also “seek to prevent the transfer to India of nuclear equipment, materials, or technology from other participating governments in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) or from any other source.” Since this sentence is not in the 123 Agreement, the Indian government will probably claim that we are not bound by it. However, the simple reality is that if there is a disruption of fuel from America, for whatever reason, the Americans will work hard to ensure that we do not get it from any other source.

(3) There will be no transfer of enrichment technology, and even permission for reprocessing imported fuel may be denied.

This is the most disturbing clause in the Bill. Sec. 204 of the Bill (page 14, lines 11-19) says explicitly that before the 123 Agreement enters into force (according to Article 16), the President has to certify that the US will work with NSG countries to “agree to further restrict the transfers of equipment and technology related to the enrichment of uranium and reprocessing of spent fuel.” So, one of the major advantages we were expecting from the NSG waiver and the 123 Agreement will not be forthcoming. But this bill goes even further. Section 201 makes it very clear that any future proposal for reprocessing needs explicit approval from the US Congress, and, Congress retains the right to refuse (page 13, lines 1-4). The same section also says that the US will pursue efforts with other countries to ensure that reprocessing of fuel from those countries will also be governed by ‘similar arrangements and procedures.’ This seems to suggest that the US would even like the existing arrangements with Russia for the Koodankulam reactors to be modified along the proposed lines. The same would also apply to any other supplier. It is surprising that in spite of our being a ‘strategic partner,’ the US wants to restrain our fuel-cycle developments. This shows, again, that India is not being treated as an equal, in spite of the fact that for decades India has developed reprocessing and enrichment technology on its own, and produced plutonium for fast-breeder reactors as well as enriched uranium for the submarine reactor.

These explicit statements in the House Bill only reaffirm what many of us have been saying for a long time. The 123 Agreement does not supersede, and is constrained by, the Hyde Act and the Atomic Energy Act. The House Bill has added new constraints. The entire Indo-US nuclear deal, which must now be taken to comprise the Congress Bill, the 123 Agreement and the Hyde Act, is in contradiction to the July 2005 Joint Statement, because it doesn’t give India the status of an advanced nuclear state enjoying the same obligations and benefits as others. The nuclear deal does not allow cooperation in enrichment or reprocessing technology . The nuclear deal does not guarantee fuel supplies or a fuel reserve. In the event of a breach of the 123 Agreement, the US will not work with its allies to find alternate solutions — on the contrary it will pressure them to act against Indian interests. ‘Full cooperation’ in civil nuclear power is meaningless without assurances of fuel supply and technological cooperation in the fuel cycle. The House Bill also makes it clear that the US continues to impose on us the existing non-proliferation regime, and is not ready to recognise India as a nation with advanced nuclear technology. The reality is that the nuclear deal will not bring us as equals to the nuclear table. It will only serve to tighten the non-proliferation regime around us, make us dependent on the nuclear cartel for fuel, and completely cripple our strategic programme.

If the government’s intention is to import nuclear reactors and fuel, a simple bilateral agreement, which guarantees application of safeguards to the reactors, the fuel, and the end-products of reprocessing the fuel, would have been sufficient and meaningful. The deal with Russia for the Kudankulam reactors is an example, which can be duplicated.

In 1974, when India was less developed and had a bleaker future, Indira Gandhi was able to stand firm in supporting a strategic programme, in spite of ominous warnings of the retribution that would follow. It is ironic that in 2008, when India is in a much stronger position, economically and geopolitically, her own party is ready to betray her legacy and put on nuclear shackles, for a few dollars more pk.iyengar@mtnl.net.in About the author:

P K Iyengar is a former Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission.

PS:In my opinion,ther's nothing to celebrate about unless you are an American.India has been castrated and colonised yet again!

Nayak · Post by **Nayak** » 02 Oct 2008 12:19

Waiting for a post on how India has been sold down the river and all that yada yada yada.

amit · Post by **amit** » 02 Oct 2008 12:36

Philip wrote:If one is willing to sell one's own (and the nation's) soul,anything will be passed by a foreign power ! Read the Rice report and PK Iyengar's article "True colours of the Nuclear deal",which in detail exposes the flaws in the deal.Simply put,the three main facts are given below. main

Excerpts from PKI's article:

(1) The 123 Agreement is subject to the provisions of the Hyde Act and the Atomic Energy Act, and does not supersede them.

(2) In the event of a disruption of fuel supply from the US, the Americans will not help arrange for fuel from another country .

(3) There will be no transfer of enrichment technology, and even permission for reprocessing imported fuel may be denied.

Philip,

Surely you weren't expecting the US Secretary of State to say that India can test all it wants without any consequences and that too just on the eve of the vote?

As regards PKI, he's one of the group of worthies who's motto for discussing any bilateral deal is simple: "My way or the highway".

I'm sure there are many folks, like you, who find this way of negotiation incredibly romantic and intoxicating. However, lesser mortals think that any deal - especially as complex as this one - has to be a combination of give and take.

What India, IMHO, has gained - the take part - is obvious. And it's not nuclear power plants by the dozens. It's the likely resumption of access to high technology items that will be of immense benefit to the country's manufacturing and science and technology sectors, as Admiral Menon had pointed out some time ago.

The give part is also obvious. Once India starts importing reactors then the cost of a breakout test will be much more greater. But it's worthwhile to note that circa 2008 already the "cost" is exponentially higher than it was in 1998, deal or no deal. And again deal or no deal, for the next 20 years the cost will grow exponentially each year.

And after 20 years? As Arun_S so rightly wrote in the last page of this thread, it won't matter a hoot. India would be too big economically for anyone to even dream of sanctioning after a nuclear test.

Of course in the meantime we have to ensure that all possible research and development activities in our military side continues unabated. We could still score a self-goal by neglecting that part. In a way everyone needs to remain vigilant that such a thing does not happen.

Cheers!

amit · Post by **amit** » 02 Oct 2008 12:45

Nayak wrote:Waiting for a post on how India has been sold down the river and all that yada yada yada.

Nayak Bhai,

The water level in the river is so low that India is stuck in the sandy bottom at one place and so can't be sold down river any more. As a result, the "snake oil salesmen" have moved on to other projects and so those who are experts in identifying such salesmen are at a loss.

Nayak · Post by **Nayak** » 02 Oct 2008 12:48

Amit-dada, India must be one of the most over-sold nation on this earth. Even a 2 bit commie screams about the sale. Yeesh, btw, none of the nay-sayers have ever told me what is the price for which this gareeb desh has been sold for !!

Sean · Post by **Sean** » 02 Oct 2008 12:51

amdavadi wrote:Barbara boxer will surely be replace, as her term ends in 2010, At the same time arnold will be looking for a job.I have heard arnold will make a run for senate seat..She is very much vulnerable going against arnold to keep her senate seat in 2010.

I think Arnold is angling to join the next administration, either Obama or McCain. I don't think he is cut out to be a senator.

I did vote for him for Governer, and will surely vote for him over Barbara Boxer.

amit · Post by **amit** » 02 Oct 2008 12:54

Nayak wrote:Amit-dada, India must be one of the most over-sold nation on this earth. Even a 2 bit commie screams about the sale.

Nayak bhai,

The two bit Commies as well as the heavyweights scream from the wrong opening hence they raise such a giant stink.

Totally OT, so apologies, but check out this link

While the party has opened an amusement park and is planning to enter the hotel business, it has also invested a substantial amount of its income in mutual funds that invest in stocks. So, even comrades cannot resist the lure of better returns. Income tax returns filed by the party from 2002 to 2006 show it has earned a substantial amount from interest and dividends: Rs 1.88 crore (2002), Rs 1.17 crore (2003), Rs 2.10 crore (2004), Rs 2.15 crore (2005) and Rs 1.92 crore (2006).

“We have invested in mutual funds because we get better returns than banks. But we have only invested in public sector funds like the Unit Trust of India,” senior Politburo member M K Pandhe told 'The Indian Express'. He declined to mention what share of the income came from mutual funds.

Doesn’t matter that in the portfolio of UTI Equity Fund, for example, PSUs are not exactly at the top. As of July 31, 2008, the fund’s portfolio included Reliance Industries, Glaxosmithkline, Reliance Communications, Tata Tea, TCS, Infosys and Shoppers Stop.

Down with the Running Dogs of Capitalism! Inqulab Zindabad!

Nayak wrote:Yeesh, btw, none of the nay-sayers have ever told me what is the price for which this gareeb desh has been sold for !!

Price points have been quoted before, you must have missed them. They ranged from a World Bank posting post retirement for the PM to ...

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 Oct 2008 13:24

Congratulations INNNNDIIIIIIAAAAA!

Manmohan Singh has not hit 36 runs in one over, but hey, 24 is also not bad.

All the Western news outlets, like BBC, AP, etc. would now have to change the footers in their stories about India. And that is just the beginning....

On to a NEW BEGINNING!

AnantD · Post by **AnantD** » 02 Oct 2008 16:15

Congratulations to GWB and MMS and what a great start to a new era for India and its relationship with the US.

But last but not the least, many thanks to TSP for being such a rotten, murderous, traitorous, fundoo country to make India stand out by comparison, and to China for spending Billions for a military that it does not need.

satya · Post by **satya** » 02 Oct 2008 16:20

From a million sell out allegations to a million congratulations to MMS and past leaders of India , wht a journey .

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 Oct 2008 16:27

True,one has to adopt a "give and take" policy sometimes,but not oine where India "gives" (away its nuclear sovereignity) and America simply "takes"!

It's "Back to the Future" of Colonialism,John Company and a latter-day equivalent of the textile policy of the Raj,where India imports everything nuclear, sacrificing its own hard won "swadeshi" nuclear industry.What a sick joke at the IAEA about India "exporting" its own N-technology,when it is destroying itself and its own N-future for US "turd-world" junk!

AnantD · Post by **AnantD** » 02 Oct 2008 16:41

Phillip:

What a sick joke at the IAEA about India "exporting" its own N-technology,when it is destroying itself and its own N-future for US "turd-world" junk!

Tell that to the Japanese after their entire Industry was wiped out after WWII, and the British who can't lift a nuclear finger in anger becasue the codes are in Washington.

For once, the playing field is open and we have been allowed to participate. Its entirely up to swadesh to make it worthwhile in the long run, instead of crippling our own industry.

Its like saying, the day the 129 jest start landing from the foreign supplier, we start selling the LCA production facility for scrap.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 02 Oct 2008 17:05

Time to move on.

What has changed is this:
1. POK-2 and the Pan-Indian

response to the "sanctions" shook the NPA order to the core, and showed the world that the days of bullying and threatening India are at an end. It never worked before, and it clearly no longer worked. POK-2 exploded the entire China-Pak-Europe-US racist myths, and they were looking at the rise of Iran and Libya and North Korea through the ruins of their NPT facade.

The TubeLight Moment in the US was when Newt Gingrich got up and declared that given India's neighborhood, India absolutely needs nuclear weapons.

2. Before J-18, India had a Voluntary Moratorium. Now India still has a Voluntary Moratorium. The difference is that until now India was still "Rogue State with nuclear weapons outside NPT".

Today India is a nuclear power with a strategic program that is ACKNOWLEDGED, and ALSO acknowledged to be nobody else's business. IOW, the world has agreed to live in the shadow of Indian nukes, and that this shadow is if anything one of reassurance, not of fear.

Everything else one can argue and disagree on. Should we "test"? When? Should we accept massive foreign investment in the core power sector? Can we get access to this or that shiny toys or shrink-wrapped software? Are we going to be stupid enough to starve the indigenous nuclear science&technology sector and rush out to spend all our money on big concrete domes?

I don't know the answer to any of those. But I do know the bottom-line promise of J-18 has been kept: separate out the military and civilian sectors, and the world will agree to work with the civilian sector, which means that India is an acknowledged Nuclear Weapon State, and its military sector is free to what it needs to do.

A time for building, not for blowing up.

prashanth · Post by **prashanth** » 02 Oct 2008 17:06

Congrats India!
Thx US.
I have great hopes that India will truly benefit from this deal. Certainly, millions of people have expressed their views on this deal, discussed it to death. So this is no one night stand adventure. Therefore, Im confident that India will cleverly utilize the facilities of this deal to its advantage.

Cheers!

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 02 Oct 2008 17:22

From famine-basket-case to superpower in one generation, without violent revolutions, or denying rights to the poorest of our citizens.

WE DID IT. JAI HIND!

Wow, this is bordering on delusion and building castles in the air. It would be laughable if it were not tragic.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 02 Oct 2008 17:26

CRamS wrote:

From famine-basket-case to superpower in one generation, without violent revolutions, or denying rights to the poorest of our citizens.

WE DID IT. JAI HIND!
Wow, this is bordering on delusion and building castles in the air. It would be laughable if it were not tragic.

Yesh, people here have coined the word "Indic"

Thatsh a shure shign that we're a shuperpowerr

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 Oct 2008 17:28

The playing field is "not open",that's the real truth.We are being allowed to play with one hand tied behind our back so to speak.Wait for the permanent invigilators,intrusive inspectors et al at our N-plants,watch how this deal is going to develop.The N,Koreans have far more common sense and national pride as they are now displaying,as the US reneged upon the agreement.Are we going to have years of future controversy that will cripple our way forward? Anyway,I am confident that a future govt.will send the controversial parts of this deal into history's dustbin.I only fear that the Sino-Pak-N.Korean-Saudi axis will take maximum advantage of India's nuclear self-sterilisation in the intervening time,and when realisation dawns upon our blinkered authors of this deal ,or the govt. of the day how far we have been left behind,we will be able to extricate ourselves at minimum cost and damage to ourselves.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 02 Oct 2008 17:38

Prashanth:

Much of the angst on these threads has come precisely from the intense competitive desire of the various parties to "use the loopholes" and shaft the other party in the negotiations.

But the bottom line here is that the basic principles survived. If you tracked those through the process, you would see that there was no "shifting of goalposts" no nothing. There were at lot of attacks and attempts to do all those, but both parties (INDIA and the US) ultimately never lost sight of the important things. The US Administration came through precisely as they promised, and India came through precisely as promised.

All the other stuff is in people's minds, and they need to check out the toxicity of those regions. Ask oneself honestly: "Would any intelligent person want to really set up a strategic partnership with me, where they don't have to watch their backs every second?" If the answer is "NO", you can be sure the agreement is not worth signing because the other party is also as crooked and mean as you are.

There is good reason for suspicion, and clear language in agreements, but eventually I must say that there is not a single "surprise" in what was agreed.

The slam-dunk nature of the Senate vote was quite a revelation: They clubbed all the anti-deal entities into ONE Amendment, set the rule saying that it needed 60 to pass .... and then crushed it with at most a voice vote. If you look at the intense disagreements in the COTUS about even the desperately-needed Bailout bill, the 85-13 margin on the final vote becomes truly stunning.

This deal eventually says that look, India will do what India wants in her strategic interests, but these interests are not against the US. There is much more to be gained by working with India than by continuing what was obviously a stupid and stubborn anti-India "punitive" regime into which the US was forced by the lies of the racist NPA idiots.

The final votes really stomped and spat on the NPAs, showing what can only be described as national disgust.

Which brings me to the Action Items needed: The NPAs are obviously taking the line now that "US WILL REGRET IT! REPENT, SINNERS!" We need to explain to the people of the world calmly and carefully that the NPAs are liars, corrupt agents of the enemies of democracy, traitors to their own country, and ultimately, infantile poor losers. There can be no forgetfulness, and no forgiveness.

Several years ago (circa 2003), someone who for strange reasons is "in the know" told me that at the highest levels of US policy-making, a fundamental decision had been made along the lines of what Lugar said last night:

In this century, friendship with this country is essential to US security and to the safety and security of all humankind

This is true from the Indian side as well. So while there will continue to be fierce negotiating wars on every issue, the overriding movement is forward.

I also feel, unfortunately, that this deal would not have occurred with a Democrat government, and an incoming Democrat govt. would not be a positive thing to move India-US relations forward.

What happens next? My prediction is that the NPT is heading for a revamp, where the focus is guaranteed fuel supply, centralized reprocessing, shifting to low-enriched fuel everywhere etc.

They have to get out of the stick approach - "if we suspect that you have a weapons research program we will invade u" and go to a mostly carrot approach.

Pressure to reduce nuclear weapons will be intense, so the smart move is to have R&D to miniaturize weapons, and generally use less fissile stuff.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 02 Oct 2008 17:43

CRamS:

I am perfectly capable of wasting time recounting the sh1t-brained anti-India campaigns waged by certain postors here for the past 2 years.

I prefer not to, but it is strictly a voluntary moratorium based on my contempt for those postors.

You may not see anything to be proud of, in India's achievements, since they came despite the negativism of people like you.

I gently suggest that you leave it at that.

prashanth · Post by **prashanth** » 02 Oct 2008 17:59

Narayanan sir,
Thanks for replying.
Point taken. No need to scan for loopholes if there is a direct way for getting things done. Stand corrected in this regard. India and US have indeed done their jobs well to make the deal as transparent as possible.

munna · Post by **munna** » 02 Oct 2008 18:02

Excellent posts Narayanji! The fact as you say is that we have the deal now and this is the time to get constructive about it rather than crib and let go of the fine handle that we have got to pry open the world strategic order. Being an anti deal person I had my reservations at the negotiation stage and since the deal is done now, the best we can do is to congratulate Indian diplomatic/Nuke/gobermand community and look ahead. Bottom line dear Rakshaks is to accept the reality and try and shape it to our interests. Let us savour the moment and carry on in the same vain. Jai Hind. Let a thousand rectors bloom

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 02 Oct 2008 18:36

By the way, I may have neglected to mention this, but I am 399% against nuclear power as a long-term solution.

I think it is a cop-out, that shuts down innovations in conservation, energy-efficiency and localized power generation. Nuclear power may be OK for a few critical enterprises, and for submarines, but that's it.

Giant utilities that mar the landscape with these monstrosities will run rough-shod over the attempts of the Aam Janata to shake free from the bonds of capitalist imperialist monopoly in power generation.

As with the Salt Satyagraha, I think it is now time for a Power Satyagraha. Bring in the technologies where power generation at the micro scale is encouraged!

POWER TO THE PEOPLE! INQUILAB ZINDABAD! DOWN WITH NUCLEAR POWER!
UP WITH GOBAR GAS!

prashanth · Post by **prashanth** » 02 Oct 2008 19:05

narayanan wrote:By the way, I may have neglected to mention this, but I am 399% against nuclear power as a long-term solution. I think it is a cop-out, that shuts down innovations in conservation, energy-efficiency and localized power generation. Nuclear power may be OK for a few critical enterprises, and for submarines, but that's it.

Giant utilities that mar the landscape with these monstrosities will run rough-shod over the attempts of the Aam Janata to shake free from the bonds of capitalist imperialist monopoly in power generation.

As with the Salt Satyagraha, I think it is now time for a Power Satyagraha. Bring in the technologies where power generation at the micro scale is encouraged!

POWER TO THE PEOPLE! INQUILAB ZINDABAD! DOWN WITH NUCLEAR POWER!
UP WITH GOBAR GAS!

Not necessarily sir. Nuclear power doesn't come cheap for India. Even if N power makes significant contribution to the power sector, we might be assured of 24 hr power supply, but not cheap power. Gobar gas and its likes will still be used, wherever energy is required at low cost. Im sure, in the future, we will see global uranium crisis like the current oil crisis. Still, it is better to negotiate with civilized countries like CAN,AUS,BRAZ than the mullah dominated barbaria etc, which uses our money to harm us. We have this thorium plan as well. I repeat, uninterrupted power supply at affordable cost.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 02 Oct 2008 19:34

I think there is a grave danger that the guvrmand will sit back saying: "Energy brablem solved onlee! Just buy gleaming white reactors phrom phoren!" and neglect all the intense development needed to bring real energy azaadi. There is sooooooo much baksheesh for the taking in this approach.

The ENRON experience shows that the GOI even at the highest levels, can be scammed big-time when the $$ signs start flashing. Now there will be "trade missions" and "training" and all such boondoggles going out of control related to New Clear Energy. There will be a clamor for Privatization of Energy Sector. Land grabs will be all over the place, because nuclear reactors need to be located near sources of plentiful cooling water.

So I think there is a strong need now for grassroots Renewable Energy and Micro Renewable Energy movements all over India. Perhaps the BJP and even the Commies can get together and make this a national platform for Energy Independence.

At least we should make the phoren reactor salesmen sweat for their $$.

By the way, Prashanth, it is not true that nuke power will be more costly than small-scale power. The opposite is the case, and why it is sooooo bloody hard to bring about renewable power. You can't compete with the sheer efficiency and convenience of nuke power, once you allow it to gain a foothold. The huge costs are there up-front, but with low Indian land costs, cheap construction labor, and huge foreign investment, these problems are alleviated. As for regulatory oversight in land use and construction practices, good luck! India has a long way to go before reaching a tough and efficient system for these things, as seen from the experience so far in building nuke plants.

So I believe that there is a window for a grassroots movement towards renewable power, but it may close fast. It will require incredibly far-sighted and determined policy-making, and a public-private partnership, to guide India through this window. I am not very optimistic that this will be a non-traumatic process.

So far they can't even set up a damn Nano car plant without getting into violent standoffs.

satya · Post by **satya** » 02 Oct 2008 19:50

Creation of an efficient National Transmission Grid connecting all Power Plants to distribution companies at ground level coupled with Energy Exchange for trading can be a way forward. GoI needs to bring out a new roadmap for power distribution companies so as to increase the choices available to the end users/consumers and thereby increase the competition and keep the distribution and gen. companies separate so as not to allow any sort of cartelisation in power sector .

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 Oct 2008 20:28

N^3,

I was hoping all of the EBs would chime in this thread toward the end, but somehow they are now gyab.

Do you think the BRF admins now owe an apology to Sunil Sanis and Alok_N?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Oct 2008 20:38

One can give a point by point rebuttal of Sri Jayal's article but not now.

Its time to make lemonade and not crib for oranges.

MW, why ?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 02 Oct 2008 20:47

Mort Walker wrote:N^3,

I was hoping all of the EBs would chime in this thread toward the end, but somehow they are now gyab.

Do you think the BRF admins now owe an apology to Sunil Sanis and Alok_N?

What you mean BRF admins? Could you explain what you are talking about? Are you trying to take a swipe at someone specific and hiding your jibe behind the hijab of the phrase "BRF admins"

Why not come clean and say what you want to say and why anyone should apologise to anyone else?

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 02 Oct 2008 20:47

Mort Jee, aam janta is just humming
"mere naseeb may hai dosh tera pyar nahi'

'Nasseb gan#% tho kya karega pandu' pyar saste may bhej diya sardarji ne!

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 02 Oct 2008 20:47

p_saggu wrote:Arun_S ji
Are you officially changing your stand and welcoming this passage of the deal? Your post suggests, that provided india does the required investment in LIF and other tech, we can as yet realize our dream to hold forth a "Credible" nuclear detterant.

P_Saggu ji, I think this post states my position w.r.t. this deal.

Arun_S wrote:Had to claw up to reach here. But this is a major position to be in. Didnt want anything in this legislation that even remotely jeopardize the hard earned NSG waiver.

Far from being ideal but it is now and here and a good enough beachhead to establish ourselves and grow up from here to a position matching India position, capability and aspiration of 1.2 billion people. For the high priests of US Congress this once and for all removes India to be the punching bag, for the biblical Original Sin. This establishes in US Congress the belated recognition of India as Nuclear weapon state, out side NPT, yet strengthening NPT and not wrecking it.

March forward now.

The deal is so far off from J18 that its not even worth trying to see any semblance of similarity except piles of constrains and responsibility on India and very poor "Return On Investment" in return for that burden.
Is it a total loss?
No, because there is some petty silver here and there, contrast that with standing tall on Fort Knox (don't want to use the term El-dorado).

Did the Indian team play well for India?:
I think they played pitifully bad. Played just enough to keeps them away from being locked away in the dog house when history is written.

Can India move forward from where it is today the 2'nd Oct 2008?
Yes of course; who can chain the "Musst" elephant for long?

Can Indian have credible strategic weapons to serve its global interest (not just regional)?
Yes, as I outlined in the subsequent post that you also mention. Not the best option, but certainly a second but less preferred choice/option to establish "weapons development and stewardship program".

Though far from being ideal, but this "India-US Civil Nuclear cooperation agreement" is now and here. I can't change that reality. I do consider this a good enough beachhead to establish ourselves and grow up from here to a position matching India position.

Am I changing my stand and officially welcoming the deal?:
It is for the gentle reader to determine himself/herself. As far as I am concerned, I do not hesitate to be a prostitute for India; there is little difference between a monogamous prostitute and the institution of marriage! Just madly love matra-bhoomi too much to be ruffled by title.

PS: In a subsequent post, where I mention the 20 year window after which India will openly test, is tied to India realizing and ramping up mass building of Thorium Fueled closed fuel cycle Nuclear Power plants based on AHWR and FBR. Thus once free of need of foreign umbilical, India can cut it and not care about the threat of cutting the oxygen supply as enshrined in US 123. I did not factor in economic muscle as the main factor for that decision threshold that beckons India 20 years henceforth, because IMHO that is non-squitor.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Oct 2008 21:02

Again I said "time to make lemonade and not complain about lack of oranges"

shetty · Post by **shetty** » 02 Oct 2008 21:02

Arun_S, thanks for the explanation, it made lot of sense to me.

The way I read it is that it is now upto US (as in we Indians) to do what is necessary to get where we want to be and rightfully belongs to us. The timeline of 20 to 25 years is based on the assumption that WE use this oppurtunity, even if it has constrained us temporarily and tied one hand behind our back (as Philip would say it).

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 02 Oct 2008 21:06

Not one mention so far!

What are they wiating for?

http://www.armscontrol.org/act/current

Oh well..there is a statement here

http://www.armscontrol.org/node/3363

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Oct 2008 21:25

I expect a very good article from KS garu. he might wait till Bush signs it.

Meanwhile

India hopes Bush will iron out final N-deal irritants
NDTV Correspondent
Thursday, October 02, 2008, (New Delhi)
After the US Senate passed the nuclear deal, India is now waiting for President Bush's signing statement. Government sources have told NDTV that they hope he will address India's concerns with some of the language used in the Bill.

The US President can override parts of the bill if he chooses to.

Some of India's worries include:

The bill says that apart from the Hyde act and US Atomic Energy Act, "any other" US law would be applicable to the 123 Agreement.

It says the 123 cannot supercede the Hyde act that the US will seek to "prevent" the transfer of nuclear material and equipment from other NSG countries, if America terminated supplies.

America's understanding of the legal meaning of the agreement is based on what the President told the Congress last month that the fuel supply assurances are political commitments and are not legally binding.

Sources say US President Bush has personally assured the Prime Minister that he will take care of these concerns.

Its fitting that Rice travels to India to deliver the deal. It was she as the NSA who started the Rand reports etc and envisoned a new direction for US Foreign Policy.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 02 Oct 2008 21:49

Manny wrote:Not one mention so far!

What are they wiating for?

http://www.armscontrol.org/act/current

Oh well..there is a statement here

http://www.armscontrol.org/node/3363

Manny Bhai, let them know there is job waiting for them in a call centre in Bastar . There is a urgent need for CBW over there.
CBW=CHAI Biscit Wala.
Koi NPT ka Sala , koi Armcontrol ka LALA
Kismet hai teri bus Chai Biskit WALA.