India nuclear news and discussion

[Sanjay]

Ramana,
No need to rush.
I think we need to dicuss non-testing options but I am happy that the deal has come through.

We are better of than in 1998 in terms of nuclear trade and no worse of in terms of nuclear testing.

Couldn't realistically hope for more.

[enqyoob]

AoA! One "loses one's Strategic Autonomy" the day one starts wearing a diaper. Can't aim one's Biss anywhere one pleases, and in particular, one indefinitely extends the Voluntary Moratorium on aiming towards people. It is a steep price to pay for being allowed in public but it does signify the opportunity to start growing up and doing other things.

The other thing that came through. Even with all the advertisement, the China lobby and their slimy terrorist tactics and their purchase of the commies and the Hundi newspaper group, could not sabotage the US-India-Russia steamroller in today's world. Democracy wins over the Communists.

Some New Zealand sheep look a bit shorn this morning, and some Austrian Nazis are showing tire tracks on their backs, but they'll learn. When the US and Russia and India had them by the ****s, their hearts and minds clearly came around for this great "consensus" and even the Chicoms had to agree.

[samuel]

Anyone release the text yet?

[ramana]

N^3, India is no longer the whipping boy of the NPA community. Thats a good thing!

I was late today as I went to a 3hr lecture last night on Indians and CHD given by an eminent Indian doctor. I'll send you some links. We need to stick around to ensure the flame is alive.

[svinayak]

SELLOUT!
Pioneer.com

Shobori Ganguli | New Delhi
India gets NSG waiver at huge cost: N-sovereignty
India was, on Saturday, firmly placed under the oppressive guardianship of the Nuclear Suppliers Group with a waiver that invites it into the global nuclear market but at a huge cost -- its nuclear sovereignty.

While India's civilian nuclear requirement can now be met by the 45-nation grouping, it would be done so under stringent NSG guidelines on weapons testing and enrichment technologies that will, in effect, tie India permanently down to a multilateral non-proliferation regime.

If any future Government in New Delhi, in the face of the most serious of security threats, attempts to walk out of its moratorium commitment and upgrades the nuclear arsenal, India would invite the kind of sanctions Iran has.

Significantly, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee's statement on Friday has been appended to the waiver in the following language: "Based on commitments in the political declaration of the Indian foreign ministry, participating States have decided on the following policy" -- the waiver.

While the waiver text does not mention testing, the fact that the EAM's statement -- which ranges from moratorium on future testing, accessing enrichment technologies, concluding the FMCT, commitment to NSG guidelines and MTCR -- has been appended as an official Indian commitment ties it firmly down.

The final draft of the NSG waiver clearly mentions that a special meeting of the NSG would be convened if India ever breached its commitments.

It is also clear that under certain "circumstances" -- essentially if India detonates a nuclear device -- the NSG members would follow Para 16 of the NSG guidelines. This paragraph specifies that in the event of any recipient country testing a nuclear weapon, the entire group en masse will cut fuel supply to that State.

Admittedly, the NSG works on consensus and any such decision would have to follow the same course. However, the US wields near total influence over the grouping.

As per America's domestic laws on non-proliferation, it is difficult to believe that India will escape punitive action at the hands of other NSG members similarly opposed to proliferation.

In effect, the waiver brings India into the inflexible ambit of NSG rules on proliferation by non-nuclear weapon States.

With Mukherjee's commitment to a self-imposed moratorium on future testing becoming a part of the official document in Vienna, India is now permanently and legally committed to non-proliferation.

By way of the 123 Agreement with the US, India had already committed itself, albeit bilaterally, to the non-proliferation clause since the Hyde Act on which this agreement is based calls for immediate cessation of co-operation in the event of India testing. In this at least, New Delhi retained the right to terminate the deal with the Americans and, at best, loose US faith.

However, the IAEA safeguards agreement and the Additional Protocol India will now sign along with the NSG waiver under specified guidelines, translates this flexible bilateral agreement with one country into a multilaterally rigid requirement.

The Indo-US nuclear deal will travel to the US Congress which begins its 18-day session on Monday.

[Rishirishi]

Ramana, I wholly agree with you but to play devil's-advocate:

1) Has our deterrent become a casualty - as per Iyengar ?
2) Has our testing ability really vanished ?

My asssessment is as follows:

1) India has demonstrated viable and reliable fission and boosted-fission capability.
2) India probably has reliable boosted-fission capability fission capability scalable to 150-200KT.
3) That capability may be reliable but has not been demonstrated via a full yield test.
4) India has significant thermonuclear weapons potential but the S-1 test did not demonstrate that capability as being reliable.
5) India may well have a viable thermonuclear weapon but again it has not been demonstrated.

I do not think I am exaggerating or being overly optimistic.

We also have to contend with the fact that India has not tested for the last 10 years and has shown no inclination to be in a rush to resume testing.

What do we make of that ?

Are we to assume BARC has been doing nothing for 10 years ? Are we to assume no sub-critical and/ or hydronuclear testing took place (despite the fact we have been talking about it since the 1980s) ?


Much depends on how we manipulate the deal. India has much to gain - as does the US. It's all in the manipulation.

Deal or no deal, India would probably would not have carried out further tests, because of the political implications. A 150-200 kt weapon is probably sufficent for Indias requirements.

Unkil, UK and France and eveven Germany did this for their own sake. With China making heavy investments in the nuclear field, the big four are desperate to maintain a level of activity for their industry, so that they are not surpassed by China. Secondry they are desprate to create a rival to China.
Getting 45 nations to comply to this is no joke. They would never have gone to all this trouble, if there was nothing in it for them.
China did not want this deal. What puzles me, is why they did not put up more opposition.

[enqyoob]

Well.. ramana, I think the NPAs are going to mount their last-ditch attack now to kill this in COTUS, so that the new administration can sink it. So it's not over, by a long shot. All the conditionalities are coming back, to try to get them into the final 123.

So it's important to get everyone on to the same page and get very focused. A few articles may be needed, fast.

[Gerard]

A 150-200 kt weapon is probably sufficent for Indias requirements.

That is sufficient for everyone's requirements.

Check the latest nuke notebook on the French arsenal. All their weapons are <300 kt with the vast majority being 100 kt.
All of the UK weapons are 100 kt.

Large yield was important when missiles had low accuracy. With increased accuracy, the needed yields are much lower. What is important is weapon size for that yield so that one SLBM can carry 4-6 warheads and your few SSBNs can thus deliver a suitable second strike.

[Rangudu]

N^3,

The 123 has to be voted up or down, no amendments.

If they vote it down, Unkil's business community would lose big, not India.

[Prem]

This is a great day for India, all of India. This also shows that the Americans are really the sole superpower. Also, BJP must now keep their traps quiet and focus on the elections, if their real intent was to keep MMS "honest." The fact is that MMS laid it on the line and came through, for all his fecklessness in other areas especially with TSP, Naxalites etc.

This is great day for India. I for one will rejoice and offer prayers for our future. I hope we can not only use our strategic space wisely, we'll also act fast to get power to the masses and work for an economic future that brings up all our countrymen, not just a privileged few. In short, keep the focus both on security and economic progress.

Thanks for posting this, captures my thoughts also.

Target 2020 remain on course!!!

Hajaro meeel lambe raste humko bulate !!
This is not 47 but 40. Karlo tyari, aab new Middle east ki bari.

[samuel]

But at the end of the day, one has to admit that for despite all the legalistic nit-picking that the test claus did not appear in print, it is clear that India's
strategic arsenal will at best be frozen in place. Short of testing how else can India sharpen its designs? And if there is no testing pretty much in perpetuity except under extraordinary circumstances, probablity of which is zero, what are India's options? Just a strategic subterfuge that we are ostensibly a nuke power, but no muscle to back that up beyond ambiguity and tough talk?

Right, it seems that testing can only realistically happen if someone else tests. Can we, for example, test if we appear to go to a "border conflict" with China?

The deal at NSG, from what I can (rather can't) see, requires a "session," thus leaving the fate of a test as a game yet to be played. Further, if a test does NOT have a US blessing, they will shut things down. There is no ambiguity there.

What is not clear is that when they shut things down, whether they will shut the rest of NSG too. I have no idea what happens in the potential situation that we are in the NSG as a nuclear weapons state without nuclear weapon status, and there is an issue such as this.

In the interim, we might bet, after seeing the amount of muscle the US demonstrated here, that it might in such a situation too, and we might underestimate by thinking Russia or France will save our neck then. I don't know and though perhaps someone else does.



So, the realistic assumption, if we live up to the spirit of what we signed is, we have a "no first test" policy now. I'd like to read the document if it is available with someone here.

[Rangudu]

I think we can expect the following immediate reactions from the anti-India groups:

1. There will be news that TSP is working on a nuclear sub, SLCM, SLBM or all of the above. That will be courtesy of the Dragon.

2. TSPigLets will launch attacks on temples or other Hindu sites, BARC/TIFR or some major national symbol.

3. NPAs inside US will release real or imaginary dirt on India, order arrests of people supplying dual use tech etc. as a last ditch attempt to thwart the 123 clearance

4. Other anti-India lobbies in US will use usual cleavages such as EJ issues to rake up muck on India

[nkumar]

Congratulations India for the waiver, for whatever it is worth.

A couple of doubts:

1) If India tests and subsequently in an NSG meet, even if one nation, say China, comes in the way of consensus for future fuel supplies, what happens then?

2) If the fuel supplies are stopped, then is it possible to run imported reactors on domestic fuel? Is there any technological barrier in doing so?

3) If the fuel supplies are stopped, then will the safeguards, on imported reactors running on domestic fuel, be still in place?

4) What happens if US or any other supplier nation does not provide the reprocessing and enrichment tech?

5) Keeping IAEA and NSG waiver in mind, what possible UNSC action is possible if India tests?

[Rangudu]

Here's the NSG clearance text

Thanks to Daryl Kimball.

[Mort Walker]

N^3,

The 123 has to be voted up or down, no amendments.

If they vote it down, Unkil's business community would lose big, not India.

That is correct. Just as you stated about MMS, the same can be said for Dubya. Despite all of his flaws, including propping up TSP with weapons, he did come through and I expect his administration to come through on this historic vote. For Americans, they must realize that this agreement is just as significant the opening up China. Any us congressperson or senator voting down the 123 will be seen as a genuine enemy of India. Since this is an election period in the US, lets see if the Democrats have the will to look past politics and towards the betterment of Indo-US relation. I'm interested to see the reactions of the US political leadership in both parties regarding the vote on the 123 Agreement.

Its a shame that George W. Bush cannot run for president a 3rd term. I would vote for him and he would be best for Indo-US relations.

[samuel]

Now that things have come around to the congress, it would be easy to paint the fact that if the cotus does not pass this, India will do business with the others and that will hold sway. Further, we will get to hear of no enrichment technology, a whole new thing for reprocessing per 123 etc., as added points to show that the US has its hands on the indian nuclear balls through our diapers.

The cotus would want to bring in whatever conditions the election politics and npa might influence with, but does that become worthless when it gets to be more restrictive than terms of the NSG waiver? Which is why, it would be useful to read what the NSG doc now says, and whether the US did leave a backdoor entry in it.

[Gerard]

So, will my other brother Darryl take his quixotic quest to the halls of the American Congress?

[ramana]

Here's the NSG clearance text

Thanks to Daryl Kimball.

muh me ghee shakar or splenda!

[Rahul M]

as per the link Gerard posted on french nuclear arsenal, they are scheduled to
complete a "megajoule laser facility" in 2011 that is supposed to simulate nukular
burst in a subcritical fashion. unkil has one in lawrence livermore.

does anyone know how difficult this tech is to master? did the french and brits
develop it on their own or received ToT?

AFAIK, they have a facility (@ bordeaux IIRC) to research laser induced fusion, to be used as next gen bomb tech. pros: smaller size, no fall-out. cons: may not materialize in the forseeable future.

[svinayak]

Its a shame that George W. Bush cannot run for president a 3rd term. I would vote for him and he would be best for Indo-US relations.

[Prem]

Here's the NSG clearance text

Thanks to Daryl Kimball.

muh me ghee shakar or splenda!

NSG wich aya Yindoo Yamla
Kimball ho gya shadai kamla =loosing wits

[svinayak]

Target 2020 remain on course!!!

Hajaro meeel lambe raste humko bulate !!
This is not 47 but 40. Karlo tyari, aab new Middle east ki bari.

[yvijay]

AoA! One "loses one's Strategic Autonomy" the day one starts wearing a diaper. Can't aim one's Biss anywhere one pleases, and in particular, one indefinitely extends the Voluntary Moratorium on aiming towards people. It is a steep price to pay for being allowed in public but it does signify the opportunity to start growing up and doing other things.

Hats off! to your imagination.

[samuel]

Much of China's rise has been attributed to what Nixon pulled off, in the very last moments of...I can conceive of a diabolical plot to deny the Republicans a second coming by blocking this deal in COTUS. But the democrats aren't really capable of such thinking, and so, there is a pretty good chance this will go through, all other pressures considered.

[Singha]

only a two page simple doc. I was expecting something unreadable like a ITU spec.
even our DDM should have little trouble reading this doc .... no legalese at all,
no dark allusions or promises of punishments if we take our diaper off....

it looks more like a house lease drafted by a itvity kid on the fly. and for
this 45 Govts sent their finest to vienna for 3 days of talks? wow Massa sure
kicks ass when he has to...a superb display of naked (super)power.

[Manny]

I have a Q.

What happens if we pretend like this deal didn't exist and NOT import fuel or technology. Then what happens if we test? Are we going to be any worse off? If not, then this deal is a plus. No?

[Sean]

FWIW, Kissinger is headed to Delhi and Hyderabad soon. This was stated by Kissinger earlier this week, and not sure if his visit is in anyway related to the nuclear deal.

[svinayak]

FWIW, Kissinger is headed to Delhi and Hyderabad soon. This was stated by Kissinger earlier this week, and not sure if his visit is in anyway related to the nuclear deal.

Several Issues to be discussed

Georgia/Russia
China
Pakistan

[enqyoob]

The 123 has to be voted up or down, no amendments.

If they vote it down, Unkil's business community would lose big, not India.

I know - in my Scenarios as explained a few days ago, India is home free.... BUT...

Well... it's like the IAEA vs. NSG. Since the COTUS is an elected body, nothing there can ever be so straightforward - it requires decisions from 654 individual minds (comments suppressed) all of whom are used to asking what they are getting for voting yes, no or abstain. It has to clear the various Committees etc. and get on the timetable.

Lots of opportunities for delay, and you have to note that the Administration is far less powerful inside the US than outside.

So the game is far from one. We may be euphoric because our criterion was whether the NSG clears it clean, which clears the way for Russia etc., but after the herrowic 48-hour marathon performance by the GOTUS with WHOTUS on the phone etc. etc., to get what should have been done with a 5-minute vote on the first morning, there is no way that India, being India, is going to go and start nuclear commerce until the COTUS approves it.

The whole thing is predicated on long-term US-India Strategic Partnership, so the COTUS can still be spoilers, and it's still an open game. The Chinese Lobby in the US will be energized, and remember that they own half the DC Think Tanks (like ACUS) and 2/3 of COTUS and much of Foggy Bottom, plus War Malt and JC Penney.

If this deal passes COTUS, it means that Indian scientists and engineers won't have BOTH hands tied behind their backs in competing with the Chinese - only one hand tied, and we tend to win under those circumstances as seen in Vienna.

Time to start attacking, IMO. The world has recognized that right is on our side, no need to be shy any more. Expose the China-Pakistan perfidy as NOW revealed by Reed, and ask why Kimball and Sokolski and all their gang didn't tell the US people about this long ago. Start exposing the Chinese PLA penetration of US Think Tanks like ACUS - just take a look at their staff/ Visiting Researcher rosters and u'll c what I mean. Look at Chinese penetration of COTUS. Publish lists of the NPAs and their lack of honesty, the real victims being the US taxpayer and the Indian civilian and soldier who have fought off the Chicom terrorist threat.

Expose the Chinese hand in the FOIL, the "Coalition Against Genocide", the Phillippines "islamist" terrorism, Iran's missiles, the China-NoKo connection, and generally the China-Islam conspiracy against democracy and freedom.

[NRao]

as per the link Gerard posted on french nuclear arsenal, they are scheduled to
complete a "megajoule laser facility" in 2011 that is supposed to simulate nukular
burst in a subcritical fashion. unkil has one in lawrence livermore.

does anyone know how difficult this tech is to master? did the french and brits
develop it on their own or received ToT?

The French, as well as the US, had such efforts as far back as 1995-97.

Check out Indian efforts at CAT, Indore. They perhaps have similar efforts.

[Sean]

I have a Q.

What happens if we pretend like this deal didn't exist and NOT import fuel or technology. Then what happens if we test? Are we going to be any worse off? If not, then this deal is a plus. No?

Why not use the deal to stockpile fuel, and acquire advanced ENR technology, and then test if need arises. We would still be better off. We would have no reactors to return, and lot of advanced ENR knowledge that can not be taken back.

[RamaY]

new revelations

almighty (TFGU - the funny guy upstairs)advises all kafirs to get those 126 sHornets from unkil as the pound of flesh for the NSG deal. And make them partial AEWCs with few good LRAAMs for practice sessions against the believers in the 2nd coming days…

And leave the nuclear business to Russia/france/japan combine… because they will never attack mother India in any form/shape…

Peace be upon me…

[Singha]

is Biden sahib in the path of this doc in the legislature? I believe he had expressed some support or atleast kept his quiet about it earlier...Obama saar's reaction will
be interesting if anyone cares to ask him.

about the Hornets its time to decide on the options pkg like upholstery, in-dash
or trunk mounted CD player, ABS etc.

[Prem]

AoA! One "loses one's Strategic Autonomy" the day one starts wearing a diaper. Can't aim one's Biss anywhere one pleases, and in particular, one indefinitely extends the Voluntary Moratorium on aiming towards people. It is a steep price to pay for being allowed in public but it does signify the opportunity to start growing up and doing other things.

Hats off! to your imagination.

But sir , even grown Indians are seen habitually taking the freedom of pointing at neibhghors. IMHO Regional Autonomy in these strategic affairs is allright for now.

[NRao]

I have a Q.

What happens if we pretend like this deal didn't exist and NOT import fuel or technology. Then what happens if we test? Are we going to be any worse off? If not, then this deal is a plus. No?

Import fuel. then test.

But, why test at all for the next 5-10 years? Or was it 15-20 years.

Whatever, sustained fuel is critical for civilian efforts. That I would think is the red-line for testing - if at all.

[enqyoob]

Item 4: What does this mean?

Consultations with India regarding proposed amendments will facilitate their effective implementation by India

What proposed amendments? Do they mean the NSG waiver itself or something else?

Also, I note that 3c only says:

Participating government are also INVITED to exchange information including their own bilateral agreements with India

Phoeey! All they have to do is check out the BRMSRR Blog site for that!

[SureshP]

Excellent text. Precise concise and very very nearly absolutely clean. Kudos to the Indian team and thanks to the US contingent.

The 123 vote is up and down. No room for amendments. In fact its going to breeze through since the naysayers cant amend, only vote against. There will be some that obviously will but they will be a minority.

History has been made today. Those arent words I have used since the birth of Bangladesh.

[enqyoob]

ut sir , even grown Indians are seen habitually taking the freedom of pointing at neibhghors.

To paraphrase the famous story about Kennedy and Nehru taking a train trip in America and finding someone "going" in the fields,

those must be the Editors of the Pioneer

[Sean]

is Biden sahib in the path of this doc in the legislature? I believe he had expressed some support or atleast kept his quiet about it earlier...Obama saar's reaction will
be interesting if anyone cares to ask him.

I expect Obama/Biden to support the deal. In fact, I expect them to influence wavering democrats to vote for the deal.

In case Obama doen't support the deal, he would lose four votes from my household. Too bad I don't live in a swing state for it to matter, as he is certainly going to win California. I will withhold my contributions, until he comes out in support of the deal and actively works to pass it.

[Prem]

ut sir , even grown Indians are seen habitually taking the freedom of pointing at neibhghors.

To paraphrase the famous story about Kennedy and Nehru taking a train trip in America and finding someone "going" in the fields,

those must be the Editors of the Pioneer

Hope folks here are aware of this famous story .
I have heard the Hu Jintao version also.